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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,747 records · Page 97
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DOE OSTI2020

Lower Hybrid Waves at the Magnetosheath Separatrix Region

Lower hybrid waves are investigated at the magnetosheath separatrix region in asymmetric guide field reconnection by using the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. Three of the four MMS spacecraft observe clear wave activities around the lower hybrid frequency across the magnetosheath separatrix, where a density gradient is present. The observed waves are consistent with generation by the lower hybrid drift instability. The characteristic properties of these waves include the following: (1) the waves propagate toward the x-line in the spacecraft frame due to the large out-of-plane magnetic field, which is in the same direction of the diamagnetic drift of the x-line; (2) the wave potential is about 20% of the electron temperature. Furthermore, these drift waves effectively produce cross-field particle diffusion, enabling the transport of magnetosheath electrons into the exhaust region. At last, we suggest that the lower hybrid waves at the magnetosheath separatrix region represent some unique features of asymmetric guide field reconnection, which is different from that widely observed at the magnetospheric side of magnetopause reconnection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Opposite Responses of the Dry and Moist Eddy Heat Transport Into the Arctic in the PAMIP Experiments

Given uncertainty in the processes involved in polar amplification, elucidating the role of poleward heat and moisture transport is crucial. The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) permits robust separation of the effects of sea ice loss from sea surface warming under climate change. We utilize a moist isentropic circulation framework that accounts for moisture transport, condensation, and eddy transport, in order to analyze the circulation connecting the mid-latitudes and the Arctic. In PAMIP's atmospheric general circulation model experiments, prescribed sea ice loss reduces poleward heat transport (PHT) by warming the returning moist isentropic circulation at high latitudes, while prescribed warming of the ocean surface increases PHT by strengthening the moist isentropic circulation. Inter-model spread of PHT into the Arctic reflects the tug-of-war between sea-ice and surface-warming effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Relationship Between Shallow Cumulus Cloud Field Properties and Surface Solar Irradiance

Abstract Shallow cumulus clouds exhibit highly three‐dimensional (3‐D) spatial structure leading to complex variability in the surface solar irradiance (SSI) beneath. This variability is captured by the typically bimodal shape of the SSI probability density function (PDF). Using large eddy simulation to generate well‐resolved cloud fields and Monte Carlo 3‐D radiative transfer to reproduce realistic associated SSI PDFs, we seek direct relationships between the cloud field properties and the SSI PDF shape. Applying both random forest and artificial neural network algorithms, we find variations in the two modes of the SSI PDF are well predicted by just a handful of cloud field properties. The two algorithms utilize cloud properties similarly, with indistinguishable performance despite their different architectures. These results offer a marked improvement in realism relative to one‐dimensional radiative transfer while bypassing computationally expensive 3‐D radiative transfer, with immediate application to renewable energy assessments, and potential for several other geophysical applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future changes in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes in the North Atlantic Subtropical High

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) plays an important role in the Central US hydroclimate, but our understanding of its response to global warming remains elusive. Here we show that the GPLLJ will intensify and intrude deeper under warming in both spring and autumn but change marginally in summer. This response is governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes of the North-Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). In spring and autumn, with a substantial poleward shift in the North America westerly jet, the NASH expands poleward notably. The anomalous surface high poleward of the NASH enhances the southerly GPLLJ to its west. In summer, however, the poleward westerly-jet shift is weak and changes in the NASH manifest a westward extension, which only marginally affects the GPLLJ. Among models, the NASH expansion and GPLLJ enhancement are correlated with the poleward jet shift, highlighting its critical role in regulating the future NASH and GPLLJ changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fracture Caging to Limit Induced Seismicity

Geothermal resources offer a stable low-carbon energy source. However, geothermal sites can collocate with the hypocenters of large-magnitude seismic events. Large seismic events pose a risk to public safety and are therefore a liability for efforts to develop geothermal resources. In this work, we propose “fracture caging” to limit induced seismic event magnitudes and present evidence from numerical model predictions, laboratory experiments, and field observations. Fracture caging involves drilling tactical production wells around a geothermal injection zone to contain fluids in fracture-dominated flow systems. Prior to our work, the effect of small wells on the growth of large fractures and on flow through fractures was subject to debate. Our work shows that production wells can impede fracture growth and contain high-pressure fluids in fracture-dominated rocks. This containment offers a mechanism to limit induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Greenland Surface Melt Dominated by Solar and Sensible Heating

The Greenland Ice Sheet is the primary source of global Barystatic sea-level rise, and at least half of its recent mass-loss acceleration is caused by surface meltwater runoff. Previous studies on surface melt have examined various thermodynamic and dynamic drivers, yet their contributions are not compared using unified observations. We use decade-long in-situ measurements from automatic weather stations throughout the ablation zone to assess energy components and identify the leading physical processes in this area. Large melt events exceeding 3σ contribute only ~2% to total surface melt since 2007. The day-to-day variability of all melt is dominated by sensible heat exchange (31 ± 7%) and shortwave radiation (28 ± 5%). Sensible and solar heating correlate with the occurrence of dry and fast gravity-driven winds. These katabatic winds increase sensible heating of the surface mainly by enhancing vertical mixing that reduces the temperature inversion. The concomitant low humidity and clear skies yield increased solar heating.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Parameterizing Subgrid Variations of Land Surface Heat Fluxes to the Atmosphere Improves Boreal Summer Land Precipitation Simulation With the NCAR CESM1.2

Subgrid horizontal variations of land surface heat fluxes to the atmosphere resulting from subgrid land cover heterogeneity are important in land-atmosphere interaction in global climate models (GCMs). To incorporate it, a parameterization using stochastic sampling based on truncated normal distributions diagnosed from the land model and internal ensemble mean of multiple calls to the planetary boundary layer and deep convection schemes is developed. After its implementation in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2), large changes of simulated land precipitation are found to occur in regions where large subgrid variations of surface heat fluxes exist. The simulated precipitation is improved in boreal summer, especially over eastern China and the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal. The improved precipitation is mainly a result of improved large-scale moisture convergence and advection by altered vertical diffusion and convection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lower-Hybrid-Drift Vortices in the Electron-Scale Magnetic Reconnection Layer

Lower-hybrid-drift waves driving vortical flows have recently been discovered in the electron current layer during magnetic reconnection in the terrestrial magnetotail. Yet, spacecraft measurements cannot address how pervasive the waves are. In this work, we perform three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations of guide field reconnection to demonstrate that electron vortices driven by the lower-hybrid-drift instability (LHDI) are excited immediately downstream from the electron jet reversal in 3-D channels of enhanced electron outflow. The resulting fluctuations generate a series of alternating vortices, producing magnetic field perturbations opposing and enhancing the local guide field and causing kinking of the enhanced electron outflow and patches of increased current. Our results demonstrate for the first time that LHDI exists in the electron current layer and enhanced outflow channels, providing a conceptual breakthrough on the LHDI in reconnection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solitary Magnetic Structures at Quasi–Parallel Collisionless Shocks: Formation

Solitary magnetic structures known as SLAMS (short large-amplitude magnetic structures) have been considered as essential elements of collisionless shocks with quasi-parallel geometries. Yet the physics underlying their formation remains an open question. In this paper, we use measurements from the magnetospheric multiscale mission combined with fully kinetic simulations to study the formation of SLAMS. We find that gyro-resonance between solar wind ions and right-hand circularly polarized electromagnetic waves results in magnetic field amplification. Gyro-trapping by the growing magnetic field builds up the plasma density that further enhances the current and field. The solitary nature of SLAMS stems from a beat-like magnetic field envelope where the maximum sets the initial location for nonlinear growth. Our results present a conceptual advance on SLAMS, and may shed new light on the open question of magnetic field amplification at astrophysical shocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geophysical Monitoring Shows that Spatial Heterogeneity in Thermohydrological Dynamics Reshapes a Transitional Permafrost System

Climate change is causing rapid changes of Arctic ecosystems. Yet, data needed to unravel complex subsurface processes are very rare. Using geophysical and in-situ sensing, this study closes an observational gap associated with thermohydrological dynamics in discontinuous permafrost systems. It highlights the impact of vegetation and snow thickness distribution on subsurface thermohydrological properties and processes. Large snow accumulation near tall shrubs insulates the ground and allows for rapid and downward heat flow. Thinner snowpack above graminoid results in surficial freezing and prevents water from infiltrating into the subsurface. Analyzing short term disturbances, we found that lateral flow could be a driving factor in talik formation. Inter-annual measurements show that deep permafrost temperatures increased by about 0.2°C over two years. The results, which suggest that snow-vegetation-subsurface processes are tightly coupled, will be useful for improving predictions of Arctic feedback to climate change, including how subsurface thermohydrology influences CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lower Tropospheric Processes: A Control on the Global Mean Precipitation Rate

The spread in global mean precipitation among climate models is explored in two ensembles using the complementary perspectives of surface evaporation and energy budgets. Models with higher global mean precipitation have stronger oceanic evaporation, driven by drier near-surface air. The drier surface conditions occur alongside increases in near-surface temperature and moisture at 925 hPa, which point to stronger boundary layer mixing. Correlations suggest that the degree of lower tropospheric mixing explains 18%–49% of the intermodel precipitation variance. To test this hypothesis, the degree of mixing is indirectly varied in a single-model experiment by adjusting the relative humidity threshold that controls low-cloud fraction. Indeed, increasing lower tropospheric mixing results in more global mean precipitation. Energetically, increased precipitation rates are associated with more downwelling longwave radiation to the surface and weaker sensible heat fluxes. These results highlight how lower-tropospheric processes must be better constrained to reduce the precipitation discrepancy among climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deadly Heat Stress to Become Commonplace Across South Asia Already at 1.5°C of Global Warming

South Asia (SA) is one of those hotspots where earliest exposure to deadly wet-bulb temperatures (Tw >35°C) is projected in warmer future climates. Here we find that even today parts of SA experience the upper limits of labor productivity (Tw >32°C) or human survivability (Tw >35°C), indicating that previous estimates for future exposure to Tw-based extremes may be conservative. Our results show that at 2°C global warming above pre-industrial levels, the per person exposure approximately increases by 2.2 (2.7) folds for unsafe labor (lethal) threshold compared to the 2006–2015 reference period. Limiting warming to 1.5°C would avoid about half that impact. The population growth under the middle-of-the-road socioeconomic pathway could further increase these exposures by a factor of ~2 by the mid-century. These results indicate an imminent need for adaptation measures, while highlighting the importance of stringent Paris-compatible mitigation actions for limiting future emergence of such conditions in SA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Three Western Pacific Typhoons Strengthened Fire Weather in the Recent Northwest U.S. Conflagration

Abstract Strong winds that accentuated a fire outbreak in the western United States in early September of 2020 resulted from an atmospheric wave train that spanned the Pacific Ocean. Days before the atmospheric waves developed in the United States, three western Pacific tropical cyclones (typhoons) underwent an extratropical transition over Korea within an unprecedentedly short span of 12 days. Using a climate diagnostic approach and historical forecast data, it was found that the amplitude of the atmospheric waves accompanying the western U.S. fire weather would not have been so profound if not for the influence of these typhoons. Together, the recurving typhoons provided a significant source of wave activity flux directed toward North America – amplifying the ridge over the U.S. west coast while deepening the trough in central Canada. This anomalous circulation produced the severe frontal system that caused extreme winds in western Oregon, Washington and California – rapidly spreading fire.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Occurrence of Record Hot Years Through Normalized Warming Trends

Surface air temperature trends and extreme events are of global concern and they are related. Here we show that the occurrence of record hot years over different latitudes from 1960-2019 are more strongly correlated with the observational annual mean temperature trends normalized by internal variability. Compared with the raw trends showing Arctic amplification, the normalized trends show a tropical amplification over land. Two hot spots with more frequent occurrence of record hot years are identified: northern hemisphere ocean (versus land) and southern hemisphere tropical land (versus mid- and high-latitude lands). Ensemble mean results from 32 Earth system models agree with observations better than individual models, but they do not reproduce observed large differences in correlations across latitudes between normalized trends and record-breaking events over land versus ocean. Furthermore, our results enable the quantification of record hot year occurrence through normalized warming trends and provide new metrics for model evaluation and improvement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Long-Lived Planetesimal Dynamo Powered by Core Crystallization

The existence of numerous iron meteorite groups indicates that some planetesimals underwent melting that led to metal-silicate segregation, sometimes producing metallic cores. Meteorite paleomagnetic records suggest that crystallization of these cores generated dynamo magnetic fields. In this work, we describe the magnetic history of the partially differentiated IIE iron meteorite parent body. This is the first planetesimal for which we have a time-resolved paleomagnetic record constrained by 40 Ar/ 39 Ar chronometry spanning several tens of million years (Ma). We find that the core of the IIE parent body generated a dynamo, likely powered by core crystallization, starting before 78 ± 13 Ma after solar system formation and lasting at least 80 Ma. Such extended core crystallization suggests that the core composed a substantial fraction of the body (≳ 13%–19% core-to-body radius ratio depending on the body’s radius), indicating efficient core formation within some partially differentiated planetesimals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving the MJO Forecast of S2S Operation Models by Correcting Their Biases in Linear Dynamics

The operational dynamic subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models for Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasting mostly still suffer from systematic errors in capturing the MJO's key dynamic features, such as its growth rate and propagation speed. By deriving the linear dynamic operators using the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, we propose a method to partly correct the errors in MJO linear dynamic operators to improve the MJO predictions of three operational dynamic S2S models. Correcting the deficiencies of the too-fast decay rates and the unrealistic propagating phase speeds lead to MJO prediction skills being extended by approximately 2–4 days. The improvements are more significant for the models with larger biases in MJO amplitude and propagation. This approach in principle may be extendable to predictions of other types of climate variability such as ENSO on one hand, and possible inclusions of nonlinear dynamics effects on the other hand.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate-to-Heavy Daily Precipitation

Because of internal variability in both the real-world and global climate models, it is unclear whether disagreement between models and observations reflects true systematic differences, or different phasing of internal variability in the short observational period. Here, we address this issue through an examination of moderate-to-heavy precipitation in large ensembles of global climate models. We find that model inconsistency with a global observational product is lowest for extratropical precipitation in northern hemisphere winter. The inconsistency is systematically greater for the southern hemisphere winter, but the difference between hemispheres could be due to observational quality. Moderate-to-heavy extratropical winter precipitation is less inconsistent than moderate-to-heavy tropical precipitation in most models. Within the tropics, moderate-to-heavy precipitation is particularly inconsistent with the reference in regions including the Caribbean (especially during JJA), the northern and southern flanks of the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZ, and the Indian Ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗