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NASA NTRS2009

Survey of International Space Station Charging Events

With the negative grounding of the 160V Photovoltaic (PV) arrays, the International Space Station (ISS) can experience varied and interesting charging events. Since August 2006, there has been a multi-probe p ackage, called the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU), availa ble to provide redundant measurements of the floating potential of th e ISS as well as the density and temperature of the local plasma environment. The FPMU has been operated during intermittent data campaigns since August 2006 and has collected over 160 days of information reg arding the charging of the ISS as it has progressed in configuration from one to three PV arrays and with various additional modules such as the European Space Agency?s Columbus laboratory and the Japan Aeros pace Exploration Agency's Kibo laboratory. This paper summarizes the charging of the ISS and the local environmental conditions that contr ibute to those charging events, both as measured by the FPMU.

Craven, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Total Dose Effects on Single Event Transients in Digital CMOS and Linear Bipolar Circuits

This presentation discusses the effects of ionizing radiation on single event transients (SETs) in circuits. The exposure of integrated circuits to ionizing radiation changes electrical parameters. The total ionizing dose effect is observed in both complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) and bipolar circuits. In bipolar circuits, transistors exhibit grain degradation, while in CMOS circuits, transistors exhibit threshold voltage shifts. Changes in electrical parameters can cause changes in single event upset(SEU)/SET rates. Depending on the effect, the rates may increase or decrease. Therefore, measures taken for SEU/SET mitigation might work at the beginning of a mission but not at the end following TID exposure. The effect of TID on SET rates should be considered if SETs cannot be tolerated.

Buchner, S.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Statistical Prediction of Solar Particle Event Frequency Based on the Measurements of Recent Solar Cycles for Acute Radiation Risk Analysis

Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.

Myung-Hee, Y. Kim↗
NASA NTRS2010

Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Automated Discovery and Modeling of Sequential Patterns Preceding Events of Interest

The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.

Rohloff, Kurt↗
NASA NTRS2009

From Goal-Oriented Requirements to Event-B Specifications

In goal-oriented requirements engineering methodologies, goals are structured into refinement trees from high-level system-wide goals down to fine-grained requirements assigned to specific software/ hardware/human agents that can realise them. Functional goals assigned to software agents need to be operationalised into specification of services that the agent should provide to realise those requirements. In this paper, we propose an approach for operationalising requirements into specifications expressed in the Event-B formalism. Our approach has the benefit of aiding software designers by bridging the gap between declarative requirements and operational system specifications in a rigorous manner, enabling powerful correctness proofs and allowing further refinements down to the implementation level. Our solution is based on verifying that a consistent Event-B machine exhibits properties corresponding to requirements.

Aziz, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2010

Near Real-Time Optimal Prediction of Adverse Events in Aviation Data

The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we demonstrate how to recast the anomaly prediction problem into a form whose solution is accessible as a level-crossing prediction problem. The level-crossing prediction problem has an elegant, optimal, yet untested solution under certain technical constraints, and only when the appropriate modeling assumptions are made. As such, we will thoroughly investigate the resilience of these modeling assumptions, and show how they affect final performance. Finally, the predictive capability of this method will be assessed by quantitative means, using both validation and test data containing anomalies or adverse events from real aviation data sets that have previously been identified as operationally significant by domain experts. It will be shown that the formulation proposed yields a lower false alarm rate on average than competing methods based on similarly advanced concepts, and a higher correct detection rate than a standard method based upon exceedances that is commonly used for prediction.

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Effect of Acute Microgravity on Mechanically-Induced Membrane Damage and Membrane-Membrane Fusion Events

Although it is unclear how a living cell senses gravitational forces there is no doubt that perturbation of the gravitational environment results in profound alterations in cellular function. In the present study, we have focused our attention on how acute microgravity exposure during parabolic flight affects the skeletal muscle cell plasma membrane (i.e. sarcolemma), with specific reference to a mechanically-reactive signaling mechanism known as mechanically-induced membrane disruption or "wounding". This response is characterized by both membrane rupture and membrane resealing events mediated by membrane-membrane fusion. We here present experimental evidence that acute microgravity exposure can inhibit membrane-membrane fusion events essential for the resealing of sarcolemmal wounds in individual human myoblasts. Additional evidence to support this contention comes from experimental studies that demonstrate acute microgravity exposure also inhibits secretagogue-stimulated intracellular vesicle fusion with the plasma membrane in HL-60 cells. Based on our own observations and those of other investigators in a variety of ground-based models of membrane wounding and membrane-membrane fusion, we suggest that the disruption in the membrane resealing process observed during acute microgravity is consistent with a microgravity-induced decrease in membrane order.

Clarke, Mark, S. F.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Multi-Spacecraft View of Solar-Energetic-Particle Onsets in the 1977 November 22 Event

We examine the onset timing of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in the large ground-level event (GLE) of 1977 November 22 as observed from six spacecraft at four distinct solar longitudes. In most cases, it was possible to use velocity dispersion of the energetic protons to fix the solar particle release (SPR) time and the path-length traveled by the initial particle burst from each solar longitude. We find that the SPR times do depend upon solar longitude, being earliest for spacecraft that are magnetically well-connected to the source region, and later for longitudes on the flanks of the outward driven shock wave. The earliest SPR time occurs well after peak photon emission from the associated Ha flare. These observations are consistent with conclusions derived from single-longitude observations of different GLE events.

Reames, Donald V.↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA EM Followup of LIGO-Virgo Candidate Events

We present a strategy for a follow-up of LIGO-Virgo candidate events using offline survey data from several NASA high-energy photon instruments aboard RXTE, Swift, and Fermi. Time and sky-location information provided by the GW trigger allows for a targeted search for prompt and afterglow EM signals. In doing so, we expect to be sensitive to signals which are too weak to be publicly reported as astrophysical EM events.

Blackburn, Lindy L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Developing Flexible Discrete Event Simulation Models in an Uncertain Policy Environment

On February 1st, 2010 U.S. President Barack Obama submitted to Congress his proposed budget request for Fiscal Year 2011. This budget included significant changes to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), including the proposed cancellation of the Constellation Program. This change proved to be controversial and Congressional approval of the program's official cancellation would take many months to complete. During this same period an end-to-end discrete event simulation (DES) model of Constellation operations was being built through the joint efforts of Productivity Apex Inc. (PAl) and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) teams under the guidance of NASA. The uncertainty in regards to the Constellation program presented a major challenge to the DES team, as to: continue the development of this program-of-record simulation, while at the same time remain prepared for possible changes to the program. This required the team to rethink how it would develop it's model and make it flexible enough to support possible future vehicles while at the same time be specific enough to support the program-of-record. This challenge was compounded by the fact that this model was being developed through the traditional DES process-orientation which lacked the flexibility of object-oriented approaches. The team met this challenge through significant pre-planning that led to the "modularization" of the model's structure by identifying what was generic, finding natural logic break points, and the standardization of interlogic numbering system. The outcome of this work resulted in a model that not only was ready to be easily modified to support any future rocket programs, but also a model that was extremely structured and organized in a way that facilitated rapid verification. This paper discusses in detail the process the team followed to build this model and the many advantages this method provides builders of traditional process-oriented discrete event simulations.

Miranda, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Examining Passenger Flow Choke Points at Airports Using Discrete Event Simulation

The movement of passengers through an airport quickly, safely, and efficiently is the main function of the various checkpoints (check-in, security. etc) found in airports. Human error combined with other breakdowns in the complex system of the airport can disrupt passenger flow through the airport leading to lengthy waiting times, missing luggage and missed flights. In this paper we present a model of passenger flow through an airport using discrete event simulation that will provide a closer look into the possible reasons for breakdowns and their implications for passenger flow. The simulation is based on data collected at Norfolk International Airport (ORF). The primary goal of this simulation is to present ways to optimize the work force to keep passenger flow smooth even during peak travel times and for emergency preparedness at ORF in case of adverse events. In this simulation we ran three different scenarios: real world, increased check-in stations, and multiple waiting lines. Increased check-in stations increased waiting time and instantaneous utilization. while the multiple waiting lines decreased both the waiting time and instantaneous utilization. This simulation was able to show how different changes affected the passenger flow through the airport.

Brown, Jeremy R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Discerning Trends in Performance Across Multiple Events

Mass Data is a computer program that enables rapid, easy discernment of trends in performance data across multiple flights and ground tests. The program can perform Fourier analysis and other functions for the purposes of frequency analysis and trending of all variables. These functions facilitate identification of past use of diagnosed systems and of anomalies in such systems, and enable rapid assessment of related current problems. Many variables, for computation of which it is usually necessary to perform extensive manual manipulation of raw downlist data, are automatically computed and made available to all users, regularly eliminating the need for what would otherwise be an extensive amount of engineering analysis. Data from flight, ground test, and simulation are preprocessed and stored in one central location for instantaneous access and comparison for diagnostic and trending purposes. Rules are created so that an event log is created for every flight, making it easy to locate information on similar maneuvers across many flights. The same rules can be created for test sets and simulations, and are searchable, so that information on like events is easily accessible.

Slater, Simon↗
NASA NTRS2011

Effects of Spatial Resolution on the Simulated Dust Aerosol Lifecycle: Implications for Dust Event Magnitude and Timing in the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM

The NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric transport model simulates global aerosol distributions with an online aerosol module. GEOS-5 may be run at various horizontal spatial resolutions depending on the research application. For example, long integration climate simulations are typically run at 2 deg or 1 deg grid spacing, whereas aerosol reanalysis and forecasting applications may be performed at O.5 deg or 0.25 deg resolutions. In this study, we assess the implications of varying spatial resolution on the simulated aerosol fields, with a particular focus on dust. Dust emissions in GEOS-5 are calculated with one of two parameterizations, one based on the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GO CART) model and another based on the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model. Emission fluxes are parameterized in terms of the surface wind speed, either the 10-m (GO CART) or friction (DEAD) wind speed. We consider how surface wind speeds and thus the dust emission rates are a function of the model spatial resolution. We find that spatial resolution has a significant effect on the magnitude of dust emissions, as higher resolution versions of the model have typically higher surface wind speeds. Utilizing space-borne observations from MISR, MODIS, and CALIOP, we find that simulated Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) distributions respond differently to spatial resolution over the African and Asian source regions, highlighting the need to regional dust emission tuning. When compared to ground-based observations from AERONET, we found improved timing of dust events with as spatial resolution was increased. In an attempt to improve the representation of the dust aerosol lifecycle at coarse resolutions, we found that incorporating the effects of sub-grid wind variability in a course resolution simulation led to improved agreement with observed AOT magnitudes, but did not impact the timing of simulated dust events.

Nowottnick, E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Event-Driven Random-Access-Windowing CCD Imaging System

A charge-coupled-device (CCD) based high-speed imaging system, called a realtime, event-driven (RARE) camera, is undergoing development. This camera is capable of readout from multiple subwindows [also known as regions of interest (ROIs)] within the CCD field of view. Both the sizes and the locations of the ROIs can be controlled in real time and can be changed at the camera frame rate. The predecessor of this camera was described in High-Frame-Rate CCD Camera Having Subwindow Capability (NPO- 30564) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 26. The architecture of the prior camera requires tight coupling between camera control logic and an external host computer that provides commands for camera operation and processes pixels from the camera. This tight coupling limits the attainable frame rate and functionality of the camera. The design of the present camera loosens this coupling to increase the achievable frame rate and functionality. From a host computer perspective, the readout operation in the prior camera was defined on a per-line basis; in this camera, it is defined on a per-ROI basis. In addition, the camera includes internal timing circuitry. This combination of features enables real-time, event-driven operation for adaptive control of the camera. Hence, this camera is well suited for applications requiring autonomous control of multiple ROIs to track multiple targets moving throughout the CCD field of view. Additionally, by eliminating the need for control intervention by the host computer during the pixel readout, the present design reduces ROI-readout times to attain higher frame rates. This camera (see figure) includes an imager card consisting of a commercial CCD imager and two signal-processor chips. The imager card converts transistor/ transistor-logic (TTL)-level signals from a field programmable gate array (FPGA) controller card. These signals are transmitted to the imager card via a low-voltage differential signaling (LVDS) cable assembly. The FPGA controller card is connected to the host computer via a standard peripheral component interface (PCI).

Monacos, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2011

Spatial and Temporal Signatures of Flux Transfer Events in Global Simulations of Magnetopause Dynamics

Flux transfer events (FTEs) were originally identified by transient bipolar variations of the magnetic field component normal to the nominal magnetopause centered on enhancements in the total magnetic field strength. Recent Cluster and THEMIS multi-point measurements provided a wide range of signatures that are interpreted as evidence for FTE passage (e.g., crater FTE's, traveling magnetic erosion regions). We use the global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code BATS-R-US developed at the University of Michigan to model the global three-dimensional structure and temporal evolution of FTEs during multi-spacecraft magnetopause crossing events. Comparison of observed and simulated signatures and sensitivity analysis of the results to the probe location will be presented. We will demonstrate a variety of observable signatures in magnetic field profile that depend on space probe location with respect to the FTE passage. The global structure of FTEs will be illustrated using advanced visualization tools developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Kuznetsova, Maria M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Future Gamma-Ray Imaging of Solar Eruptive Events

Solar eruptive events, the combination of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), accelerate ions to tens of Gev and electrons to hundreds of MeV. The energy in accelerated particles can be a significant fraction (up to tens of percent) of the released energy and is roughly equipartitioned between ions and electrons. Observations of the gamma-ray signatures produced by these particles interacting with the ambient solar atmosphere probes the distribution and composition of the accelerated population, as well as the atmospheric parameters and abundances of the atmosphere, ultimately revealing information about the underlying physics. Gamma-ray imaging provided by RHESSI showed that the interacting approx.20 MeV/nucleon ions are confined to flare magnetic loops rather than precipitating from a large CME-associated shock. Furthermore, RHESSI images show a surprising, significant spatial separation between the locations where accelerated ions and electrons are interacting, thus indicating a difference in acceleration or transport processes for the two types of particles. Future gamma-ray imaging observations, with higher sensitivity and greater angular resolution, can investigate more deeply the nature of ion acceleration. The technologies being proven on the Gamma-Ray Imager/Polarimeter for Solar flares (GRIPS), a NASA balloon instrument, are possible approaches for future instrumentation. We discuss the GRIPS instrument and the future of studying this aspect of solar eruptive events.

Shih, Albert↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Influence of Large Solar Proton Events on the Atmosphere

Solar proton events (SPEs) can cause changes in constituents in the Earth s polar middle atmosphere. A number of large SPEs have occurred over the past 50 years and tend to happen most frequently near solar maximum. The highly energetic protons cause ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents. Complicated ion chemistry leads to HOx (H, OH, HO2) production and dissociation of N2 leads to NOy (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2) production. Both the HOx and NOy increases can result in changes to ozone in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The HOx increases lead to short-lived (~days) ozone decreases in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. The NOy increases lead to long-lived (~several months) stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of NOy constituents in this region. UARS HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) instrument observations showed SPE-caused polar stratospheric NOx (NO+NO2) increases over 10 ppbv in September 2000 due to the very large SPE of July 2000, which are reasonably well simulated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). WACCM-computed SPE-caused polar stratospheric ozone decreases >10% continued for up to 5 months past the largest events in the past 50 years, however, SPE-caused total ozone changes were not found to be statistically significant. Small polar middle atmospheric temperature changes of <4 K have also been predicted to occur as a result of the larger SPEs. The polar atmospheric effects of large SPEs during solar cycle 23 and 24 will be emphasized in this presentation.

Jackman, Charles H.↗