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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California Independent System Operator’s (ISO) load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter (BTM) PV forecasts. The three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models included: the infrared (IR) satellite-based cloud motion vector (CMV) model; the WRF-SolarCA model and variants; and the Optimized Deep Machine Learning (ODML)-training model. The first two forecasting models targeted known weaknesses in current operational solar forecasts. They were benchmarked against existing operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, visible satellite CMV forecasts, and measured PV plant power production. IR CMV, WRF-SolarCA, and ODML-training forecasting models all improved the forecast to a significant degree. Improvements varied depending on time of day, cloudiness index, and geographic location. The fourth objective was to demonstrate that the California ISO’s load forecasts could be improved by integrating BTM PV forecasts. This objective represented the project’s most exciting and applicable gains. Operational BTM forecasts consisting of 200,000+ individual rooftop PV forecasts were delivered into the California ISO’s real-time automated load forecasting (ALFS) environment. They were then evaluated side-by-side with operational load forecasts with no BTM-treatment. Overall, ALFS-BTM day-ahead (DA) forecasts performed better than baseline ALFS forecasts when compared to actual load data. Specifically, ALFS-BTM DA forecasts were observed to have the largest reduction of error during the afternoon on cloudy days. Shorter term 30 minute-ahead ALFS-BTM forecasts were shown to have less error under all sky conditions, especially during the morning time periods when traditional load forecasts often experience their largest uncertainties. This work culminated in a GO decision being made by the California ISO to include zonal BTM forecasts into its operational load forecasting system. The California ISO’s Manager of Short Term Forecasting, Jim Blatchford, summarized the research performed in this project with the following quote: “The behind-the-meter (BTM) California ISO region forecasting research performed by Clean Power Research and sponsored by the Department of Energy’s SUNRISE program was an opportunity to verify value and demonstrate improved load forecast capability. In 2016, the California ISO will be incorporating the BTM forecast into the Hour Ahead and Day Ahead load models to look for improvements in the overall load forecast accuracy as BTM PV capacity continues to grow.”

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Supervised detection of anomalous light curves in massive astronomical catalogs

The development of synoptic sky surveys has led to a massive amount of data for which resources needed for analysis are beyond human capabilities. In order to process this information and to extract all possible knowledge, machine learning techniques become necessary. Here we present a new methodology to automatically discover unknown variable objects in large astronomical catalogs. With the aim of taking full advantage of all information we have about known objects, our method is based on a supervised algorithm. In particular, we train a random forest classifier using known variability classes of objects and obtain votes for each of the objects in the training set. We then model this voting distribution with a Bayesian network and obtain the joint voting distribution among the training objects. Consequently, an unknown object is considered as an outlier insofar it has a low joint probability. By leaving out one of the classes on the training set, we perform a validity test and show that when the random forest classifier attempts to classify unknown light curves (the class left out), it votes with an unusual distribution among the classes. This rare voting is detected by the Bayesian network and expressed as a low joint probability. Our method is suitable for exploring massive data sets given that the training process is performed offline. We tested our algorithm on 20 million light curves from the MACHO catalog and generated a list of anomalous candidates. After analysis, we divided the candidates into two main classes of outliers: artifacts and intrinsic outliers. Artifacts were principally due to air mass variation, seasonal variation, bad calibration, or instrumental errors and were consequently removed from our outlier list and added to the training set. After retraining, we selected about 4000 objects, which we passed to a post-analysis stage by performing a cross-match with all publicly available catalogs. Within these candidates we identified certain known but rare objects such as eclipsing Cepheids, blue variables, cataclysmic variables, and X-ray sources. For some outliers there was no additional information. Among them we identified three unknown variability types and a few individual outliers that will be followed up in order to perform a deeper analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dual-energy cone-beam CT with a flat-panel detector: Effect of reconstruction algorithm on material classification

Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) with a flat-panel detector (FPD) is finding application in areas such as breast and musculoskeletal imaging, where dual-energy (DE) capabilities offer potential benefit. The authors investigate the accuracy of material classification in DE CBCT using filtered backprojection (FBP) and penalized likelihood (PL) reconstruction and optimize contrast-enhanced DE CBCT of the joints as a function of dose, material concentration, and detail size. Methods: Phantoms consisting of a 15 cm diameter water cylinder with solid calcium inserts (50–200 mg/ml, 3–28.4 mm diameter) and solid iodine inserts (2–10 mg/ml, 3–28.4 mm diameter), as well as a cadaveric knee with intra-articular injection of iodine were imaged on a CBCT bench with a Varian 4343 FPD. The low energy (LE) beam was 70 kVp (+0.2 mm Cu), and the high energy (HE) beam was 120 kVp (+0.2 mm Cu, +0.5 mm Ag). Total dose (LE+HE) was varied from 3.1 to 15.6 mGy with equal dose allocation. Image-based DE classification involved a nearest distance classifier in the space of LE versus HE attenuation values. Recognizing the differences in noise between LE and HE beams, the LE and HE data were differentially filtered (in FBP) or regularized (in PL). Both a quadratic (PLQ) and a total-variation penalty (PLTV) were investigated for PL. The performance of DE CBCT material discrimination was quantified in terms of voxelwise specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy. Results: Noise in the HE image was primarily responsible for classification errors within the contrast inserts, whereas noise in the LE image mainly influenced classification in the surrounding water. For inserts of diameter 28.4 mm, DE CBCT reconstructions were optimized to maximize the total combined accuracy across the range of calcium and iodine concentrations, yielding values of ∼88% for FBP and PLQ, and ∼95% for PLTV at 3.1 mGy total dose, increasing to ∼95% for FBP and PLQ, and ∼98% for PLTV at 15.6 mGy total dose. For a fixed iodine concentration of 5 mg/ml and reconstructions maximizing overall accuracy across the range of insert diameters, the minimum diameter classified with accuracy >80% was ∼15 mm for FBP and PLQ and ∼10 mm for PLTV, improving to ∼7 mm for FBP and PLQ and ∼3 mm for PLTV at 15.6 mGy. The results indicate similar performance for FBP and PLQ and showed improved classification accuracy with edge-preserving PLTV. A slight preference for increased smoothing of the HE data was found. DE CBCT discrimination of iodine and bone in the knee was demonstrated with FBP and PLTV at 6.2 mGy total dose. Conclusions: For iodine concentrations >5 mg/ml and detail size ∼20 mm, material classification accuracy of >90% was achieved in DE CBCT with both FBP and PL at total doses <10 mGy. Optimal performance was attained by selection of reconstruction parameters based on the differences in noise between HE and LE data, typically favoring stronger smoothing of the HE data, and by using penalties matched to the imaging task (e.g., edge-preserving PLTV in areas of uniform enhancement)

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Resilience Design Patterns - A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (version 1.1)

Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest the prevalence of very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Therefore the resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires management of various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. Also, due to practical limits on power consumption in HPC systems future systems are likely to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. As a result the techniques that seek to improve resilience must navigate the complex trade-off space between resilience and the overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various resilience solutions, application-level techniques as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods and metrics to investigate and evaluate resilience holistically in HPC systems that consider impact scope, handling coverage, and performance & power efficiency across the system stack. Additionally, few of the current approaches are portable to newer architectures and software environments that will be deployed on future systems. In this document, we develop a structured approach to the management of HPC resilience using the concept of resilience-based design patterns. A design pattern is a general repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identify the commonly occurring problems and solutions used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. Each established solution is described in the form of a pattern that addresses concrete problems in the design of resilient systems. The complete catalog of resilience design patterns provides designers with reusable design elements. We also define a framework that enhances a designer's understanding of the important constraints and opportunities for the design patterns to be implemented and deployed at various layers of the system stack. This design framework may be used to establish mechanisms and interfaces to coordinate flexible fault management across hardware and software components. The framework also supports optimization of the cost-benefit trade-offs among performance, resilience, and power consumption. The overall goal of this work is to enable a systematic methodology for the design and evaluation of resilience technologies in extreme-scale HPC systems that keep scientific applications running to a correct solution in a timely and cost-efficient manner in spite of frequent faults, errors, and failures of various types.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

LSZ in action: extracting form factors from correlators nonperturbatively in 2d ϕ4 theory

Abstract In this paper, we compute multiparticle form factors of local operators in 2dϕ 4 theory using a recently proposed method [1] for efficiently implementing the LSZ prescription with Hamiltonian Truncation methods, and we adopt Lightcone Conformal Truncation (LCT) in particular for our calculations. We perform various checks of our results at weak and strong coupling, and elucidate the parametric behavior of truncation errors. This opens up the possibility to compute S-matrix in various strongly coupled models using the LSZ method in LCT.

Physics↗

Incremental Interval Assignment by Integer Linear Algebra with Improvements

Interval Assignment (IA) is the problem of selecting the number of mesh edges (intervals) for each curve for conforming quad and hex meshing. The intervals x is fundamentally integer-valued. Many other approaches perform numerical optimization then convert a floating-point solution into an integer solution, which is slow and error prone. We avoid such steps: we start integer, and stay integer. Incremental Interval Assignment (IIA) uses integer linear algebra (Hermite normal form) to find an initial solution to the meshing constraints, satisfying the integer matrix equation Solving for reduced row echelon form provides integer vectors spanning the nullspace of A. Here we add vectors from the nullspace to improve the initial solution, maintaining Ax = b Heuristics find good integer linear combinations of nullspace vectors that provide strict improvement towards variable bounds or goals. IIA always produces an integer solution if one exists. In practice we usually achieve solutions close to the user goals, but there is no guarantee that the solution is optimal, nor even satisfies variable bounds, e.g. has positive intervals. We describe several algorithmic changes since first publication that tend to improve the final solution. The software is freely available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lightweight runtime checking of C programs with RTC

The C Programming Language is known for being an efficient language that can be compiled on almost any architecture and operating system. However the absence of dynamic safety checks and a relatively weak type system allows programmer oversights that are hard to spot. In this paper, we present RTC, a runtime monitoring tool that instruments unsafe code and monitors the program execution. RTC is built on top of the ROSE compiler infrastructure. RTC finds memory bugs and arithmetic overflows and underflows, and run-time type violations. Most of the instrumentations are directly added to the source file and only require a minimal runtime system. As a result, the instrumented code remains portable. In tests against known error detection benchmarks, RTC found 98% of all memory related bugs and had zero false positives. Finally, in performance tests conducted with well known algorithms, such as binary search and MD5, we determined that our tool has an average run-time overhead rate of 9.7× and memory overhead rate of 3.5×.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine learning models for volumetric swelling in uranium nitride

Machine learning methods are applied to predict the volumetric swelling rate of the nuclear fuel uranium nitride (UN) over various temperatures, irradiation conditions, and power densities. Both kernel-based methods and symbolic regression models for UN swelling are developed and compared with multiple experimental datasets. We find that the UN pellet geometry and dimensions must be taken into account to accurately model swelling behavior. Strong agreement is observed between the developed machine learning models and the data. The predictive error generated by the machine learning models improves on empirical models taken from the literature. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine which properties such as temperature, burnup, and power density, are most important in the swelling process. We find that machine learning can be used to quickly develop accurate swelling models for nuclear materials. In conclusion, the presented results illustrate the potential of machine learning to determine volumetric swelling in UN.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Spline based least squares integration for two-dimensional shape or wavefront reconstruction

In this paper, we present a novel method to handle two-dimensional shape or wavefront reconstruction from its slopes. The proposed integration method employs splines to fit the measured slope data with piecewise polynomials and uses the analytical polynomial functions to represent the height changes in a lateral spacing with the pre-determined spline coefficients. The linear least squares method is applied to estimate the height or wavefront as a final result. Numerical simulations verify that the proposed method has less algorithm errors than two other existing methods used for comparison. Especially at the boundaries, the proposed method has better performance. The noise influence is studied by adding white Gaussian noise to the slope data. Finally, experimental data from phase measuring deflectometry are tested to demonstrate the feasibility of the new method in a practical measurement.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Combining Computational Modeling with Reaction Kinetics Experiments for Elucidating the In Situ Nature of the Active Site in Catalysis

Microkinetic modeling based on density functional theory (DFT) derived energetics is important for addressing fundamental questions in catalysis. The quantitative fidelity of microkinetic models (MKMs), however, is often insufficient to conclusively infer the mechanistic details of a specific catalytic system. Here, this can be attributed to a number of factors such as an incorrect model of the active site for which DFT calculations are performed, deficiencies in the hypothesized reaction mechanism, inadequate consideration of the surface environment under reaction conditions, and intrinsic errors in the DFT exchange-correlation functional. Despite these limitations, we aim at developing a rigorous understanding of the reaction mechanism and of the nature of the active site for heterogeneous catalytic chemistries under reaction conditions. By achieving parity between experimental and modeling outcomes through robust parameter estimation and by ensuring coverage-consistency between DFT calculations and MKM predictions, it is possible to systematically refine the mechanistic model and, thereby, our understanding of the catalytic active site in situ.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

ELM–Wet: Inclusion of a Wet–Landunit With Sub–Grid Representation of Eco–Hydrological Patches and Hydrological Forcing Improves Methane Emission Estimations in the E3SM Land Model (ELM)

Wetlands are the largest emitters of biogenic methane (CH 4 ) and represent the highest source of uncertainty in global CH 4 budgets. Here, we aim to improve the realism of wetland representation in the U.S. Department of Energy's Exascale Earth System Model land surface model, ELM, thereby reducing uncertainty of CH 4 flux predictions. We develop an updated version, ELM-Wet, where we activate a separate landunit for wetlands that handles multiple wetland-specific eco-hydrological patch functional types. We introduce more realistic hydrological forcing through prescribing site-level constraints on surface water elevation, which allows resolving different sustained inundation depth for different patches, and if data exists, prescribing inundation depth. We modified the calculation of aerenchyma transport diffusivity based on observed conductance per leaf area for different vegetation types. We use Bayesian Optimization to parameterize CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes in the developed wet-landunit. Site-level simulations of a coastal non-tidal freshwater wetland in Louisiana were performed with the updated model. Eddy covariance observations of CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from 2012 to 2013 were used to train the model and data from 2021 were used for validation. Patch-specific chamber flux observations and observations of CH 4 concentration profiles in the soil porewater from 2021 were used for evaluation of the model performance. Our results show that ELM-Wet reduces the model's CH 4 emission root mean squared error by up to 33% and is able to represent inter-daily CO 2 and CH 4 flux variability across the wetland's eco-hydrological patches, including during periods of extreme dry or wet conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leveraging unlabeled SEM datasets with self-supervised learning for enhanced particle segmentation

Scanning Electron Microscopes (SEMs) are widely used in experimental science laboratories, often requiring cumbersome and repetitive user analysis. Automating SEM image analysis processes is highly desirable to address this challenge. In particle sample analysis, Machine Learning (ML) has emerged as the most effective approach for particle segmentation. However, the time-intensive process of manually annotating thousands of SEM images limits the applicability of supervised learning approaches. Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) offers a promising alternative by enabling knowledge extraction from raw, unlabeled data. This study presents a framework for evaluating SSL techniques in SEM image analysis, focusing on novel methods leveraging the ConvNeXtV2 architecture for particle detection. A dataset comprising 25,000 SEM images is curated to benchmark these proposed SSL methods. The results demonstrate that ConvNeXtV2 models, with varying parameter counts, consistently outperform other techniques in particle detection across different length scales, achieving up to a 34% reduction in relative error compared to established SSL methods. Furthermore, an ablation study explores the relationship between dataset size and SSL performance, providing actionable insights for practitioners regarding model selection and resource efficiency. This research advances the integration of SSL into autonomous analysis pipelines and supports its application in accelerating materials science discovery.

Rettenberger, Luca↗

Hierarchical modeling of molecular energies using a deep neural network

In this work, we introduce the Hierarchically Interacting Particle Neural Network (HIP-NN) to model molecular properties from datasets of quantum calculations. Inspired by a many-body expansion, HIP-NN decomposes properties, such as energy, as a sum over hierarchical terms. These terms are generated from a neural network—a composition of many nonlinear transformations—acting on a representation of the molecule. HIP-NN achieves the state-of-the-art performance on a dataset of 131k ground state organic molecules and predicts energies with 0.26 kcal/mol mean absolute error. Finally, with minimal tuning, our model is also competitive on a dataset of molecular dynamics trajectories. In addition to enabling accurate energy predictions, the hierarchical structure of HIP-NN helps to identify regions of model uncertainty.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Principles of stereo reconstruction of aerial objects using stationary cameras

An overview is given here of the principles and mathematics of stereo reconstruction of objects in the sky using stationary cameras with an emphasis on meteorological applications. Through its Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the Department of Energy has operated stereo-photogrammetric cameras since 2017 as part of an effort to measure the life-cycle properties of clouds. At the core of that technology is stereo reconstruction, which calculates the real-world position of an object from the location of the object’s image in two cameras’ photographs. Here, stereo reconstruction is stripped down to its basic elements and presented using conventions tailored to applications in atmospheric science. In addition, the resulting equations are used to illustrate the high sensitivity of reconstructed cloud positions to errors in the cameras’ Euler angles. The interested reader will find here a self-contained guide to performing stereo reconstructions using distortion-corrected images from a pair of calibrated, stationary cameras, as well as a demonstration of the need for high accuracy in the measurement of camera properties and orientations.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations of the tokamak plasma boundary for model predictive control using SINDy *

Abstract Time-dependent SOLPS-ITER simulations have been used to identify reduced models with the sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) method and develop model-predictive control of the boundary plasma state using main ion gas puff actuation. A series of gas actuation sequences are input into SOLPS-ITER to produce a dynamic response in upstream and divertor plasma quantities. The SINDy method is applied to identify reduced linear and nonlinear models for the electron density at the outboard midplane n e , s e p O M P and the electron temperature at the outer divertor T e , s e p d i v . Note that T e , s e p d i v is not necessarily the peak value of T e along the divertor. The identified reduced models are interpretable by construction (i.e. not black box), and have the form of coupled ordinary differential equations. Despite significant noise in T e , s e p d i v , the reduced models can be used to predict the response over a range of actuation levels to a maximum deviation of 0.5% in n e , s e p O M P and 5%–10% in T e , s e p d i v for the cases considered. Model retraining using time history data triggered by a preset error threshold is also demonstrated. A model predictive control strategy for nonlinear models is developed and used to perform feedback control of a SOLPS-ITER simulation to produce a setpoint trajectory in n e , s e p O M P using the integrated plasma simulator framework. The developed techniques are general and can be applied to time-dependent data from other boundary simulations or experimental data. Ongoing work is extending the approach to model identification and control for divertor detachment, which will present transient nonlinear behavior from impurity seeding, including realistic latency and synthetic diagnostic signals derived from the full SOLPS-ITER output.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Digital-analog quantum computation

Digital quantum computing paradigm offers highly desirable features such as universality, scalability, and quantum error correction. However, physical resource requirements to implement useful error-corrected quantum algorithms are prohibitive in the current era of NISQ devices. As an alternative path to performing universal quantum computation, within the NISQ era limitations, we propose to merge digital single-qubit operations with analog multiqubit entangling blocks in an approach we call digital-analog quantum computing (DAQC). Along these lines, although the techniques may be extended to any resource, we propose to use unitaries generated by the ubiquitous Ising Hamiltonian for the analog entangling block and we prove its universal character. Here, we construct explicit DAQC protocols for efficient simulations of arbitrary inhomogeneous Ising, two-body, and M-body spin Hamiltonian dynamics by means of single-qubit gates and a fixed homogeneous Ising Hamiltonian. Additionally, we compare a sequential approach where the interactions are switched on and off (stepwise DAQC) with an always-on multiqubit interaction interspersed by fast single-qubit pulses (banged DAQC). Finally, we perform numerical tests comparing purely digital schemes with DAQC protocols, showing a remarkably better performance of the latter. The proposed DAQC approach combines the robustness of analog quantum computing with the flexibility of digital methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

3D Simulations Capture the Persistent Low-Mode Asymmetries Evident in Laser-Direct-Drive Implosions on OMEGA

Spherical implosions in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) are inherently sensitive to perturbations that may arise from experimental constraints and errors. Control and mitigation of low-mode (long wavelengths) perturbations is a key milestone to improving implosion performances. Here, we present the first 3-D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of directly driven ICF implosions with an inline package for polarized Crossed-Beam Energy Transfer (CBET). Simulations match bang times, yields (separately accounting for laser-induced high modes and fuel age), hot spot flow velocities and direction, for which polarized CBET contributes to the systematic flow orientation evident in the OMEGA implosion database. Current levels of beam mispointing, imbalance, target offset and asymmetry from polarized CBET degrade yields by more than 40%. The effectiveness of two mitigation strategies for low-modes is explored.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗