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NASA NTRS2015

X-1 to X-Wings: Developing a Parametric Cost Model

In todays cost-constrained environment, NASA needs an X-Plane database and parametric cost model that can quickly provide rough order of magnitude predictions of cost from initial concept to first fight of potential X-Plane aircraft. This paper takes a look at the steps taken in developing such a model and reports the results. The challenges encountered in the collection of historical data and recommendations for future database management are discussed. A step-by-step discussion of the development of Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) is then covered.

parametric cost model↗

NASA NTRS2015

Preserving the Science Legacy from the Apollo Missions to the Moon

Six Apollo missions landed on the Moon from 1969-72, returning to Earth 382 kg of lunar rock, soil, and core samples-among the best documented and preserved samples on Earth that have supported a robust research program for 45 years. From mission planning through sample collection, preliminary examination, and subsequent research, strict protocols and procedures are followed for handling and allocating Apollo subsamples. Even today, 100s of samples are allocated for research each year, building on the science foundation laid down by the early Apollo sample studies and combining new data from today's instrumentation, lunar remote sensing missions and lunar meteorites. Today's research includes advances in our understanding of lunar volatiles, lunar formation and evolution, and the origin of evolved lunar lithologies. Much sample information is available to researchers at curator.jsc.nasa.gov. Decades of analyses on lunar samples are published in LPSC proceedings volumes and other peer-reviewed journals, and tabulated in lunar sample compendia entries. However, for much of the 1969-1995 period, the processing documentation, individual and consortia analyses, and unpublished results exist only in analog forms or primitive digital formats that are either inaccessible or at risk of being lost forever because critical data from early investigators remain unpublished. We have initiated several new efforts to rescue some of the early Apollo data, including unpublished analytical data. We are scanning NASA documentation that is related to the Apollo missions and sample processing, and we are collaborating with IEDA to establish a geochemical database called Moon DB. To populate this database, we are working with prominent lunar PIs to organize and transcribe years of both published and unpublished data. Other initiatives include micro-CT scanning of complex lunar samples to document their interior structure (e.g. clasts, vesicles); linking high-resolution scans of Apollo film products to samples; and new procedures for systematic high resolution photography of samples before additional processing, enabling detailed 3D reconstructions of the samples. All of these efforts will provide comprehensive access to Apollo samples and support better curation of the samples for decades to come.

Evans, Cindy↗

NASA NTRS2015

Characterization of Debris from the DebriSat Hypervelocity Test

The DebriSat project is an effort by NASA and the DoD to update the standard break-up model for objects in orbit. The DebriSat object, a 56 kg representative LEO satellite, was subjected to a hypervelocity impact in April 2014. For the hypervelocity test, the representative satellite was suspended within a "soft-catch" arena formed by polyurethane foam panels to minimize the interactions between the debris generated from the hypervelocity impact and the metallic walls of the test chamber. After the impact, the foam panels and debris not caught by the panels were collected and shipped to the University of Florida where the project has now advanced to the debris characterization stage. The characterization effort has been divided into debris collection, measurement, and cataloguing. Debris collection and cataloguing involves the retrieval of debris from the foam panels and cataloguing the debris in a database. Debris collection is a three-step process: removal of loose debris fragments from the surface of the foam panels; X-ray imaging to identify/locate debris fragments embedded within the foam panel; extraction of the embedded debris fragments identified during the X-ray imaging process. As debris fragments are collected, they are catalogued into a database specifically designed for this project. Measurement involves determination of size, mass, shape, material, and other physical properties and well as images of the fragment. Cataloguing involves a assigning a unique identifier for each fragment along with the characterization information.

Rivero, M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Quality Control of Wind Data from 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler

Upper-level wind profiles obtained from a 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (DRWP) instrument at Kennedy Space Center are incorporated in space launch vehicle design and day-of-launch operations to assess wind effects on the vehicle during ascent. Automated and manual quality control (QC) techniques are implemented to remove spurious data in the upper-level wind profiles caused from atmospheric and non-atmospheric artifacts over the 2010-2012 period of record (POR). By adding the new quality controlled profiles with older profiles from 1997-2009, a robust database will be constructed of upper-level wind characteristics. Statistical analysis will determine the maximum, minimum, and 95th percentile of the wind components from the DRWP profiles over recent POR and compare against the older database. Additionally, this study identifies specific QC flags triggered during the QC process to understand how much data is retained and removed from the profiles.

Vacek, Austin D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Quality Control of Wind Data from 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler

Vacek, Austin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2001

High Altitude Small Engine Test Techniques at the NASA Glenn Propulsion Systems Lab

A High Altitude Test was performed in the Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL) at the NASA Glenn Research Center using a Pratt and Whitney Canada PW545 jet engine. This engine was tested to develop a highaltitude database on small, high-bypass ratio, engine performance and operability. Industry is interested in the use of high-bypass engines for Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAV's) to perform high altitude surveillance. The tests were a combined effort between Pratt & Whitney Canada (PWC) and NASA Glenn Research Center. A large portion of this test activity was to collect performance data with a highly instrumented low-pressure turbine. Low-pressure turbine aerodynamic performance at low Reynolds numbers was collected and compared to analytical models developed by NASA and PWC. This report describes the test techniques implemented to obtain high accuracy turbine performance data in an altitude test facility, including high accuracy airflow at high altitudes, very low mass flow, and low air temperatures. Major accomplishments from this test activity were to collect accurate and repeatable turbine performance data at high altitudes to within 1 percent. Data were collected at 19,800m, 16,750m, and 13,700m providing documentation of diminishing LPT performance with reductions in Reynolds number in an actual engine flight environment. The test provided a unique database for the development of engine analysis codes to be used for future LPT performance improvements.

Castner, Raymond↗

NASA NTRS2015

Comparison of GFED3, QFED2 and FEER1 Biomass Burning Emissions Datasets in a Global Model

Biomass burning contributes about 40% of the global loading of carbonaceous aerosols, significantly affecting air quality and the climate system by modulating solar radiation and cloud properties. However, fire emissions are poorly constrained in models on global and regional levels. In this study, we investigate 3 global biomass burning emission datasets in NASA GEOS5, namely: (1) GFEDv3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1); (2) QFEDv2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4); (3) FEERv1 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0). The simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD), absorption AOD (AAOD), angstrom exponent and surface concentrations of aerosol plumes dominated by fire emissions are evaluated and compared to MODIS, OMI, AERONET, and IMPROVE data over different regions. In general, the spatial patterns of biomass burning emissions from these inventories are similar, although the strength of the emissions can be noticeably different. The emissions estimates from QFED are generally larger than those of FEER, which are in turn larger than those of GFED. AOD simulated with all these 3 databases are lower than the corresponding observations in Southern Africa and South America, two of the major biomass burning regions in the world.

biomass burning↗

NASA NTRS2014

Grid2: A Program for Rapid Estimation of the Jovian Radiation Environment

Grid2 is a program that utilizes the Galileo Interim Radiation Electron model 2 (GIRE2) Jovian radiation model to compute fluences and doses for Jupiter missions. (Note: The iterations of these two softwares have been GIRE and GIRE2; likewise Grid and Grid2.) While GIRE2 is an important improvement over the original GIRE radiation model, the GIRE2 model can take as long as a day or more to compute these quantities for a complete mission. Grid2 fits the results of the detailed GIRE2 code with a set of grids in local time and position thereby greatly speeding up the execution of the model-minutes as opposed to days. The Grid2 model covers the time period from 1971 to 2050 and distances of 1.03 to 30 Jovian diameters (Rj). It is available as a direct-access database through a FORTRAN interface program. The new database is only slightly larger than the original grid version: 1.5 gigabytes (GB) versus 1.2 GB.

Evans, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Quality Control of Wind Data from 50-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler

Vacek, Austin↗

NASA NTRS2014

Grid2: A Program for Rapid Estimation of the Jovian Radiation Environment: A Numeric Implementation of the GIRE2 Jovian Radiation Model for Estimating Trapped Radiation for Mission Concept Studies

Grid2 is a program that utilizes the Galileo Interim Radiation Electron model 2 (GIRE2) Jovian radiation model to compute fluences and doses for Jupiter missions. (Note: The iterations of these two softwares have been GIRE and GIRE2; likewise Grid and Grid2.) While GIRE2 is an important improvement over the original GIRE radiation model, the GIRE2 model can take as long as a day or more to compute these quantities for a complete mission. Grid2 fits the results of the detailed GIRE2 code with a set of grids in local time and position thereby greatly speeding up the execution of the model--minutes as opposed to days. The Grid2 model covers the time period from 1971 to 2050and distances of 1.03 to 30 Jovian diameters (Rj). It is available as a direct-access database through a FORTRAN interface program. The new database is only slightly larger than the original grid version: 1.5 gigabytes (GB) versus 1.2 GB.

Europa↗

NASA NTRS2016

In-Space Manufacturing Baseline Property Development

The In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) project at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center currently operates a 3D FDM (fused deposition modeling) printer onboard the International Space Station. In order to enable utilization of this capability by designer, the project needs to establish characteristic material properties for materials produced using the process. This is difficult for additive manufacturing since standards and specifications do not yet exist for these technologies. Due to availability of crew time, there are limitations to the sample size which in turn limits the application of the traditional design allowables approaches to develop a materials property database for designers. In this study, various approaches to development of material databases were evaluated for use by designers of space systems who wish to leverage in-space manufacturing capabilities. This study focuses on alternative statistical techniques for baseline property development to support in-space manufacturing.

Stockman, Tom↗

NASA NTRS2014

Total Volcanic Stratospheric Aerosol Optical Depths and Implications for Global Climate Change

Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, Aerosol Robotic Network, and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at middle to high latitudes and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be 0.19 +/- 0.09W/sq m. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2016

International Research Results and Accomplishments From the International Space Station - A New Compilation

In 2016, the International Space Station (ISS) partnership published the first-ever compilation of international ISS research publications resulting from research performed on the ISS through 2011 (Expeditions 0 through 30). International Space Station Research Accomplishments: An Analysis of Results. From 2000-2011 is a collection of over 1,200 journal publications that describe ISS research in the areas of biology and biotechnology; Earth and space science; educational activities and outreach; human research; physical sciences; technology development and demonstration; and, results from ISS operations. This paper will summarize the ISS results publications obtained through 2011 on behalf of the ISS Program Science Forum that is made up of senior science representatives across the international partnership. NASA's ISS Program Science office maintains an online experiment database (www.nasa.gov/iss- science) that tracks and communicates ISS research activities across the entire ISS partnership, and it is continuously updated by cooperation and linking with the results tracking activities of each partner. It captures ISS experiment summaries and results and includes citations to the journals, conference proceedings, and patents as they become available. This content is obtained through extensive and regular journal and patent database searches, and input provided by the ISS international partners ISS scientists themselves. The International Space Station Research Accomplishments: An Analysis of Results From 2000-2011 is a testament to the research that was underway even as the ISS laboratory was being built. It rejects the scientific knowledge gained from ISS research, and how it impact the fields of science in both space and traditional science disciplines on Earth. Now, during a time when utilization is at its busiest, and with extension of the ISS through at least 2024, the ISS partners work together to track the accomplishments and the new knowledge gained in a way that will impact humanity like no laboratory on Earth. Examples of the highest pro le publications to date from each discipline will also be presented. As ISS research activities and operations continue, scientific data derived from earlier experiments will continuously be re-examined, refined, and assembled with new data and findings, including data from other fields never considered. New results will be produced, allowing breakthroughs in new areas of research and innovative solutions to problems on Earth. The ISS Program Science Forum will continue to capture and report on these results in the form of journal publications, conference proceedings, and patents. We anticipate that successful ISS research will continue to contribute to the science literature in a way that helps to formulate new hypotheses and conclusions that will enable science advancements across a wide range of scientific disciplines both in space and on Earth.

Ruttley, Tara↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Maneuvering Flight Noise Model for Helicopter Mission Planning

A new model for estimating the noise radiation during maneuvering flight is developed in this paper. The model applies the Quasi-Static Acoustic Mapping (Q-SAM) method to a database of acoustic spheres generated using the Fundamental Rotorcraft Acoustics Modeling from Experiments (FRAME) technique. A method is developed to generate a realistic flight trajectory from a limited set of waypoints and is used to calculate the quasi-static operating condition and corresponding acoustic sphere for the vehicle throughout the maneuver. By using a previously computed database of acoustic spheres, the acoustic impact of proposed helicopter operations can be rapidly predicted for use in mission-planning. The resulting FRAME-QS model is applied to near-horizon noise measurements collected for the Bell 430 helicopter undergoing transient pitch up and roll maneuvers, with good agreement between the measured data and the FRAME-QS model.

Greenwood, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2016

Pilot Critical Incident Reports as a Means to Identify Human Factors of Remotely Piloted Aircraft

It has been estimated that aviation accidents are typically preceded by numerous minor incidents arising from the same causal factors that ultimately produced the accident. Accident databases provide in-depth information on a relatively small number of occurrences, however incident databases have the potential to provide insights into the human factors of Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) operations based on a larger volume of less-detailed reports. Currently, there is a lack of incident data dealing with the human factors of unmanned aircraft systems. An exploratory study is being conducted to examine the feasibility of collecting voluntary critical incident reports from RPAS pilots. Twenty-three experienced RPAS pilots volunteered to participate in focus groups in which they described critical incidents from their own experience. Participants were asked to recall (1) incidents that revealed a system flaw, or (2) highlighted a case where the human operator contributed to system resilience or mission success. Participants were asked to only report incidents that could be included in a public document. During each focus group session, a note taker produced a de-identified written record of the incident narratives. At the end of the session, participants reviewed each written incident report, and made edits and corrections as necessary. The incidents were later analyzed to identify contributing factors, with a focus on design issues that either hindered or assisted the pilot during the events. A total of 90 incidents were reported. Human factor issues included the impact of reduced sensory cues, traffic separation in the absence of an out-the-window view, control latencies, vigilance during monotonous and ultra-long endurance flights, control station design considerations, transfer of control between control stations, the management of lost link procedures, and decision-making during emergencies. Pilots participated willingly and enthusiastically in the study, and generally had little difficulty recalling critical incidents. The results suggest that pilot interviews can be a productive method of gathering information on incidents that might not otherwise be reported. Some of the issues described in the reports have received significant attention in the literature, or are analogous to human factors of manned aircraft. In other cases, incident reports involved human factors that are poorly understood, and have not yet been the subject of extensive study. Although many of the reported incidents were related to pilot error, the participants also provided examples of the positive contribution that humans make to the operation of highly-automated systems.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

NASA NTRS2016

Common Cause Failure Modeling

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshal Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.

Hark, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2015

Common Cause Failure Modeling in Space Launch Vehicles

Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFs are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused for example by system environments, manufacturing, transportation, storage, maintenance, and assembly. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, they can be reduced, but are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and dependent CCF. Because common cause failure data is limited in the aerospace industry, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Team at Bastion Technology Inc. is estimating CCF risk using generic data collected by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Consequently, common cause risk estimates based on this database, when applied to other industry applications, are highly uncertain. Therefore, it is important to account for a range of values for independent and CCF risk and to communicate the uncertainty to decision makers. There is an existing methodology for reducing CCF risk during design, which includes a checklist of 40+ factors grouped into eight categories. Using this checklist, an approach to produce a beta factor estimate is being investigated that quantitatively relates these factors. In this example, the checklist will be tailored to space launch vehicles, a quantitative approach will be described, and an example of the method will be presented.

Hark, Frank↗