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Development of a Numerical Model of Hypervelocity Impact into a Pressurized Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel

As the outlook for space exploration becomes more ambitious and spacecraft travel deeper into space than ever before, it is increasingly important that propulsion systems perform reliably within the space environment. The increased reliability compels designers to increase design margin at the expense of system mass, which contrasts with the need to limit vehicle mass to maximize payload. Such are the factors that motivate the integration of high specific strength composite materials in the construction of pressure vessels commonly referred to as composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV). The COPV consists of a metallic liner for the inner shell of the COPV that is stiff, negates fluid permeation and serves as the anchor for composite laminates or filaments, but the liner itself cannot contain the stresses from the pressurant it contains. The compo-site-fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) is wound around the liner using a combination of hoop (circumferential) and helical orientations. Careful consideration of wrap orientation allows the composite to evenly bear structural loading and creates the COPV's characteristic high strength to weight ratio. As the CFRP overwrap carries most of the stresses induced by pressurization, damage to the overwrap can affect mission duration, mission success and potentially cause loss-of-vehicle/loss-of-crew. For this reason, it is critical to establish a fundamental understanding of the mechanisms involved in the failure of a stressed composite such as that of the COPV. One of the greatest external threats to the integrity of a spacecraft's COPV is an impact from the meteoroid and orbital debris environments (MMOD). These impacts, even from submillimeter particles, generate extremely high stress states in the CFRP that can damage numerous fibers. As a result of this possibility, initial assumptions in survivability analysis for some human-rated NASA space-craft have assumed that any alteration of the vessel due to impact is considered a catastrophic failure. This assumption is conservative and made due to lack of knowledge on the level of allow-able damage to the composite overwrap that can be sustained and still allow successful completion of the mission. To quantify the allowable damage level to the composite overwrap involves assessing stress redistribution following damage as well as evaluating possible time-dependent mechanisms involved in the COPV response to an impact event. Limited published work in this subject has shown that COPV can withstand at least some level of damage due to high energy impacts. These observations have been confirmed and expanded upon in recent experimental research performed by NASA. This research has demonstrated that there is not only robustness in a COPV to compensate for CFRP damage, but has also identified two significant failure modes for pressurized COPV. The lowest threshold failure mode involves the perforation of the vessel, and the highest threshold failure mode is the catastrophic rupture. While both of these failure modes mean a loss of the COPV, system robustness affords some tolerance to the venting as opposed to the more catastrophic rupture. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand the conditions that result in the transition between these failure modes. The aforementioned experimental research has been performed in both the unpressurized and pressurized condition to identify the damage level that triggered the failure thresh-old. This COPV test program was sponsored by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), and tests were performed at NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). Planning and coordination were provided by NASA JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology (HVIT) group, and the COPVs were provided by the ISS Program. Unpressurized testing has been conducted at the pressure of the vacuum test chamber, while, the pressurized testing has been conducted at 290 +/- 10 bar (4,200  100 psi) using nitrogen as the pressurizing gas, which corresponds to the design pressure for the target COPV. In this research, spherical aluminum projectiles with varying diameter has been chosen as the impactor. For the unpressurized COPV, the dependence of penetration up to the dependence of hole size in the liner has been obtained as a function of impact conditions. For the pressurized research, the dependence of penetration up to rupture has been obtained as a function of im-pact conditions. Two representative post-test photographs of the failed COPV's from a nor-mal impact into the COPV surface are shown in Fig. 1. These images display the dramatic difference between failure modes, venting (Fig. 1a) and rupture (Fig. 1b). For venting, liner perforation, severed composite fibers/tows and ply delamination are commonly observed damage characteristics of this COPV failure mode. In the case of rupture, the COPV typically experienced a separation of its domed regions and severe break-up of the cylindrical region. Fully understanding the transition from venting to rupture experimentally is costly and potentially unachievable for conditions that cannot be generated in the laboratory. These shortcomings have motivated the performance of three-dimensional numerical simulations to expand the existing experimental database. These simulations have been carried out with the nonlinear-structural-dynamics, analysis-tool, CTH. A typical pressure contour plot from an impact simulation of an entire COPV is shown in Fig. 2. To generate the COPV stress state without initiating a shock wave, the pressure in the simulated COPV is ramped up to the final pressure over a millisecond prior to impact of the projectile with nitrogen gas. Figure 2a shows the system in this initial condition. After one millisecond, a projectile is initiated into the simulation and impacts the COPV. Figure 2b shows the system after this impact. In the figure, the onset of venting is represented as the change in pressure (μbar), red to green, at the perforation site. Also seen in the figure is the eroded projectile that had passed into the COPV vessel with the generated shock wave in the pressurant propagating just ahead of the material. In this paper, pertinent experimental details and the development of the material constitutive models necessary for this work along with the efforts to validate their use are dis-cussed. The simulation results are presented and compared with the NASA experimental observations. While work is on-going from this effort, early observations pertinent to the failure threshold are presented.

Garcia, M. A.↗

Kinetics of the benzyl + HO 2 and benzoxyl + OH barrierless association reactions: fate of the benzyl hydroperoxide adduct under combustion and atmospheric conditions

Radical–radical association reactions are challenging to address theoretically due to difficulties finding the bottleneck that variationally minimizes the reactive flux. For this purpose, the variable reaction coordinate (VRC) formulation of the variational transition state theory (VTST) represents an appropriate tool. Here, we revisited the kinetics of two radical–radical association reactions of importance in combustion modelling and poly-aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) chemistry by performing VRC calculations: benzyl + HO 2 and benzoxyl + OH, both forming the adduct benzyl hydroperoxide. Our calculated rate constants are significantly lower than those previously reported based on VTST calculations, which results from a more efficient minimization of the reactive flux through the bottleneck achieved by the VRC formulation. Both reactions show different trends in the variation of their rate constants with temperature. We observed that if the pair of single occupied molecular orbitals (SOMOs) of the associating radicals show a similar nature, i.e. similar character, and thereby a small energy gap, a highly stabilized transition state structure is formed as the result of a very efficient SOMO–SOMO overlap, which may cancel out the free energy bottleneck for the formation of the adduct and result in large rate constants with a negative temperature dependence. This is the case of the benzoxyl and OH radical pair, whose SOMOs show O 2p nature with an energy gap of 20.2 kcal mol –1 . On the other hand, the benzyl and HO 2 radical pair shows lower rate constants with a positive temperature dependence due to the larger difference between both SOMOs (a 28.9 kcal mol –1 energy gap) as a consequence of the contribution of the multiple resonance structures of the benzyl radical. The reverse dissociation rate constants were also calculated using multi-structural torsional anharmonicity partition functions, which were not included in previous work, and the results show a much slower dissociation of benzyl hydroperoxide. Our work may help to improve kinetic models of interest in combustion and PAH formation, as well as to gain further understanding of radical–radical association reactions, which are ubiquitous in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Metric to Quantify Shared Visual Attention in Two-Person Teams

Introduction: Critical tasks in high-risk environments are often performed by teams, the members of which must work together efficiently. In some situations, the team members may have to work together to solve a particular problem, while in others it may be better for them to divide the work into separate tasks that can be completed in parallel. We hypothesize that these two team strategies can be differentiated on the basis of shared visual attention, measured by gaze tracking. 2) Methods: Gaze recordings were obtained for two-person flight crews flying a high-fidelity simulator (Gontar, Hoermann, 2014). Gaze was categorized with respect to 12 areas of interest (AOIs). We used these data to construct time series of 12 dimensional vectors, with each vector component representing one of the AOIs. At each time step, each vector component was set to 0, except for the one corresponding to the currently fixated AOI, which was set to 1. This time series could then be averaged in time, with the averaging window time (t) as a variable parameter. For example, when we average with a t of one minute, each vector component represents the proportion of time that the corresponding AOI was fixated within the corresponding one minute interval. We then computed the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between the gaze proportion vectors for each of the two crew members, at each point in time, resulting in a signal representing the time-varying correlation between gaze behaviors. We determined criteria for concluding correlated gaze behavior using two methods: first, a permutation test was applied to the subjects' data. When one crew member's gaze proportion vector is correlated with a random time sample from the other crewmember's data, a distribution of correlation values is obtained that differs markedly from the distribution obtained from temporally aligned samples. In addition to validating that the gaze tracker was functioning reasonably well, this also allows us to compute probabilities of coordinated behavior for each value of the correlation. As an alternative, we also tabulated distributions of correlation coefficients for synthetic data sets, in which the behavior was modeled as a first-order Markov process, and compared correlation distributions for identical processes with those for disparate processes, allowing us to choose criteria and estimate error rates. 3) Discussion: Our method of gaze correlation is able to measure shared visual attention, and can distinguish between activities involving different instruments. We plan to analyze whether pilots strategies of sharing visual attention can predict performance. Possible measurements of performance include expert ratings from instructors, fuel consumption, total task time, and failure rate. While developed for two-person crews, our approach can be applied to larger groups, using intra-class correlation coefficients instead of the Pearson product-moment correlation.

Gontar, Patrick↗

Powering the Blue Economy: A Survey of Station-Keeping Methods for Mooringless Platforms

The term “ocean platform” is used to reference everything from stationary, typically moored, buoys to mobile water vehicles, whether they operate on the ocean’s surface or underwater. For certain applications for which relatively stationary station-keeping conditions are desired, the use of mooring systems is not always a viable alternative either for economic, environmental, regulatory, or otherwise practical reasons, or a combination thereof, (e.g., short deployments, sensitive ecosystems, very deep project sites). Maintaining a platform at a single waypoint or reference location without being moored would require additional control systems and a power source to counteract the drift forces that would naturally displace it. Mobile platforms, which are usually untethered except for remotely operated vehicles, typically require energy input to power their station-keeping capabilities so that they hold or control their location in the ocean. Currently, most of these platforms use combustion engines or batteries for this purpose, which, depending on the specific systems, may be costly, pollute the environment, or create limitations on the length of the deployment. However, powering this kind of platforms with surrounding renewable resources (waves, currents, winds, or sun) has been identified as a promising solution to expand their application. The intent of this report is to investigate station-keeping methods for various ocean platforms that are not moored or otherwise anchored to the ocean floor, or another platform or vessel, paying particular interest to technologies that use marine renewable resources to power their operation, because that is of particular interest to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) initiative. As a first step, 72 articles and technical reports related to mooringless station-keeping methods were collected for review. The preliminary literature review provided a broad overview of common themes across the literature from which a descriptive methodology for analyzing various platforms was developed. That is, station-keeping methods were categorized based on their predominant energy source and consumption (renewable, nonrenewable, or hybrid if the platform uses renewable and nonrenewable resources equally), and their localization strategy (drift reduction, “path-planning or “waypoint-holding”). In addition, platform types were segregated into the following groups: buoys, surface drifters, and unoccupied surface vehicles (USVs); offshore renewable energy systems; and unoccupied underwater vehicles (UUVs). The main types of station-keeping methods encountered in this report achieve their intended localization strategy by means of drift mitigation, steering, and/or propulsion. Drift mitigation is commonly accomplished via drogues and sea anchors. Stand-along steering subsystems use control surfaces (e.g., ship rudder, wing sail, etc.) that react to ocean currents, waves, or winds to provide varying-degrees of course adjustments. Combined steering and propulsion subsystems include differential thrusters, directional thrusters separate from a primary thruster that cause the platform to pitch up/down or yaw clockwise/counterclockwise, or vectored thrusters that direct the propulsion in a range of directions relative to the platform’s local coordinate system. Propulsion is often achieved by running a motor and applying active control strategies but can also involve buoyancy shifts and using sails to generate lifting forces that propel a platform in a desired direction. Future research is primarily expected to take place in the form of a technoeconomic analysis that would aim to determine the technological viability, cost, and added value of mooringless station-keeping use cases identified through this research, including docking for UUV recharging or for georeferencing drifter buoys, deep-sea floating wind farms, U.S. Navy sonar arrays, and a Pacific Ocean wave buoy network.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Metagenome-assembled genomes measured at 3 depths during snowmelt period in East River, CO (March, May, and June, September 2017)

Snowmelt is a critical biogeochemical period that accounts for large nitrogen (N) export events from high-elevation watersheds. Soil microbial populations bloom and immobilize N during snowmelt, yet the population size crashes in spring, which releases a pulse of soil N. We sought to discover the N sources fueling this microbial bloom and determine the fate of N following microbial die-off. Here, focusing on the snowmelt period within a headwater catchment of the Upper Colorado River Basin (East River, CO), we deployed strain-resolved metagenomics to identify the metabolic pathways and processes that mobilize soil N during and after snowmelt. Soil metagenome samples were taken from 6 snowpits from 3 depths (0-5cm, 5-15cm, >15cm) at 4 time points during snowmelt period (March 2017, May 2017, and June 2017, September 2017) generating 48 metagenomes. We reconstructed 474 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) across all metagenomes.All 48 metagenomes were sequenced at JGI and raw data can be found under JGI (Joint Genome Institute) GOLD Study Gs0135149. Metagenome assemblies from IMG under the same study were used for genome binning. This dataset (1) a zip file of 474 MAGs (as fasta files, Gs0135149_bins_tar.gz), (2) sample metadata file with sample IGSNs (International Generic Sample Numbers) (samples.csv), (3) bounding box coordinates for the sampled locations (Gs0135149.kml), (4) metagenome metadata file listing IMG/M (Integrated Microbial Genomes/Metagenomes) metagenome accessions linking samples to metagenomes (metagenomes.csv), (5) location metadata file (locations.csv), (6) file-level metadata file (flmd.csv) and (7) data dictionary (dd.csv) file.This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resource Prospector (RP) - Early Prototyping and Development

The Resource Prospector (RP) is an In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technology demonstration mission under study by the NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate's (HEOMD) Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Division. The mission, currently planned to launch in 2020, will demonstrate extraction of oxygen from lunar regolith to validate ISRU capability. The mission will address key Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) for robotic and human exploration to the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and ultimately Mars, as well as meet the strategic goals of the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER), offered by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG). In this roadmap, the use of local resources is specifically addressed relating to human exploration. RP will provide knowledge to inform the selection of future mission destinations, support the development of exploration systems, and reduce the risk associated with human exploration. Expanding human presence beyond low-Earth orbit to asteroids and Mars will require the maximum possible use of local materials, so-called in-situ resources. The moon presents a unique destination to conduct robotic investigations that advance ISRU capabilities, as well as providing significant exploration and science value. Lunar regolith contains useful resources such as oxygen, water, silicon, and light metals, like aluminum and titanium. Oxygen can be separated from the regolith for life support (breathable air), or used to create rocket propellant (oxidizer). Regolith can be used to protect against radiation exposure, be processed into solar cells, or used to manufacture construction materials such as bricks and glass. RP will characterize the constituents and distribution of water and other volatiles at the poles of the Moon, enabling innovative uses of local resources, in addition to validating ISRU capabilities. This capability, as well as a deeper understanding of regolith, will be valuable in the exploration of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and Mars. In order to reduce risk and explore system designs, the RP project is attempting two-fold approaches to development as it looks towards flight. We continue to explore flight planning, requirements, and interfaces definition by using Engineering Test Units (ETUs), looking towards lunar deployment, while also using fiscal year 2015 to develop, build and test an earth-terrestrial prototype rover and payload system. This terrestrial prototype, called "RP15", is built to both inform the system design, and to be a partnership advocacy tool for this unique mission. RP15 must be affordable within the resource and time constraints of fiscal year 2015, while working to the following Needs, Goals, and Objectives provided by HEOMD/AES: 1. Demonstrate rover mobility in a 1g environment 2. The Surface Segment (prototype rover + payload system) shall represent the flight system concept with as much fidelity as affordable (limited by cost and schedule) - Surface Segment shall be the approximate size/dimension/footprint -Surface Segment shall package all the expected devices (instruments, systems, etc.), even if some facets are mocked-up due to time/cost constraints -Overall Surface Segment fidelity negotiable to make achievable 3. Priority should be given to illustrating mission functionality over support functionality, which exists solely to support mission functionality This paper will provide an overview of RP project developments, including the design and build, capturing the development and initial integrated testing of RP15 in relevant environments.

Lunar↗

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

In Situ Surface Characterization

Operation of in situ space assets, such as rovers and landers, requires operators to acquire a thorough understanding of the environment surrounding the spacecraft. The following programs help with that understanding by providing higher-level information characterizing the surface, which is not immediately obvious by just looking at the XYZ terrain data. This software suite covers three primary programs: marsuvw, marsrough, and marsslope, and two secondary programs, which together use XYZ data derived from in situ stereo imagery to characterize the surface by determining surface normal, surface roughness, and various aspects of local slope, respectively. These programs all use the Planetary Image Geometry (PIG) library to read mission-specific data files. The programs themselves are completely multimission; all mission dependencies are handled by PIG. The input data consists of images containing XYZ locations as derived by, e.g., marsxyz. The marsuvw program determines surface normals from XYZ data by gathering XYZ points from an area around each pixel and fitting a plane to those points. Outliers are rejected, and various consistency checks are applied. The result shows the orientation of the local surface at each point as a unit vector. The program can be run in two modes: standard, which is typically used for in situ arm work, and slope, which is typically used for rover mobility. The difference is primarily due to optimizations necessary for the larger patch sizes in the slope case. The marsrough program determines surface roughness in a small area around each pixel, which is defined as the maximum peak-to-peak deviation from the plane perpendicular to the surface normal at that pixel. The marsslope program takes a surface normal file as input and derives one of several slope-like outputs from it. The outputs include slope, slope rover direction (a measure of slope radially away from the rover), slope heading, slope magnitude, northerly tilt, and solar energy (compares the slope with the Sun s location at local noon). The marsuvwproj program projects a surface normal onto an arbitrary plane in space, resulting in a normalized 3D vector, which is constrained to lie in the plane. The marsuvwrot program rotates the vectors in a surface normal file, generating a new surface normal file. It also can change coordinate systems for an existing surface normal file. While the algorithms behind this suite are not particularly unique, what makes the programs useful is their integration into the larger in situ image processing system via the PIG library. They work directly with space in situ data, understanding the appropriate image metadata fields and updating them properly. The secondary programs (marsuvwproj, marsuvwrot) were originally developed to deal with anomalous situations on Opportunity and Spirit, respectively, but may have more general applicability.

Deen, Robert G.↗

Water Mass Transformation Budgets in Finite‐Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate Ocean Models

Water Mass Transformation (WMT) theory provides conceptual tools that in principle enable innovative analyses of numerical ocean models; in practice, however, these methods can be challenging to implement and interpret, and therefore remain under-utilized. Our aim is to demonstrate the feasibility of diagnosing all terms in the water mass budget and to exemplify their usefulness for scientific inquiry and model development by quantitatively relating water mass changes, overturning circulations, boundary fluxes, and interior mixing. We begin with a pedagogical derivation of key results of classical WMT theory. We then describe best practices for diagnosing each of the water mass budget terms from the output of Finite-Volume Generalized Vertical Coordinate (FV-GVC) ocean models, including the identification of a non-negligible remainder term as the spurious numerical mixing due to advection scheme discretization errors. We illustrate key aspects of the methodology through the analysis of a polygonal region of the Greater Baltic Sea in a regional demonstration simulation using the Modular Ocean Model v6 (MOM6). We verify the convergence of our WMT diagnostics by brute-force, comparing time-averaged (“offline”) diagnostics on various vertical grids to timestep-averaged (“online”) diagnostics on the native model grid. Finally, we briefly describe a stack of xarray-enabled Python packages for evaluating WMT budgets in FV-GVC models (culminating in the new xwmb package), which is intended to be model-agnostic and available for community use and development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The 5 Cs of Agrivoltaic Success Factors in the United States: Lessons from the InSPIRE Research Study

The concept of agrivoltaics (combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics technologies on the same land in novel configurations) has emerged as an approach to mitigate conflicts between solar and agricultural activities by providing mutual benefits and added values to each sector. The U.S. Department of Energy has supported agrivoltaics research since 2015 through its Innovative Solar Practices Integrated with Rural Economies and Ecosystems (InSPIRE) research project (National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2022). The InSPIRE project is the most comprehensive coordinated research effort on agrivoltaics in the United States and has examined opportunities and tradeoffs at over 25 sites across the country that span crop production, pollinator habitat, ecosystem services, animal husbandry, and d. Integrating research sites with active commercial agricultural operations can introduce unique challenges for conducting research. This synthesis aims to highlight the technical and non-technical insights from InSPIRE agrivoltaic field research sites from 2015-2021 to support i) appropriate deployment of agrivoltaic projects; ii) more successful research on agrivoltaics; and iii) more effective partnerships on agrivoltaic projects. The synthesized lessons discussed here are focused less on specific case study outcomes (i.e., the percent change in crop yield in an agrivoltaics configuration), and instead more on the elements that enable and facilitate agrivoltaics projects to be installed and operated along with research to be conducted at those sites. We find that there are some insights that are applicable across all types of agrivoltaic projects, while ecosystem service projects and crop production agrivoltaic projects can often have other unique considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advancement of Entry System Modeling to Support Exploration of Giant Planets

This paper describes NASA’s efforts to advance entry system modeling and simulation capabilities to support future exploration of Giant planets. The Giant planets are key destinations of interest to the planetary science community for their potential to provide insight into the formation and evolution of our Solar System, as well as extrasolar planetary systems. To date, the Galileo atmospheric probe is the only purpose-built entry probe to a Giant planet. Post-flight analysis of Galileo’s performance showed that there was significant recession of the thermal protection system (TPS), well beyond what was anticipated on the flank, and this was due in part to insufficiently accurate capability for estimating the flight environment and TPS response. While Galileo ultimately survived its flight, the example serves to highlight the great challenge of designing successful missions for environments that are poorly understood or where models have not yet been validated. An important means to reduce mission risks is the incorporation of physics-based modeling with well-quantified uncertainties. The emphasis on physics-based modeling – in contrast to empirically-driven models – is motivated by the fact that it is impossible to completely replicate entry environments through ground tests and, therefore, extrapolation to the flight environment is required. Basing analysis in fundamental physics removes the bias of ground test limitations, though one must then be careful to properly characterize model inputs, simplifying assumptions, and the limits wherein the model is valid. NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project is tasked with investigating such considerations for planetary science missions across the Solar System, and in recent years has begun to do so for Giant planets. The most distinctive features of the Giant planets, from an entry system perspective, are the atmospheres composed primarily of hydrogen and helium. The entry velocities of proposed missions are generally very large and can therefore be expected to result in significant convective and radiative heating generated by the vehicle’s shock layer. Yet thermochemical behavior of the hydrogen-helium system is not well understood under such conditions. The ESM project is leading efforts to develop accurate thermochemical databases based on state-of-the-art measurements in the Electric Arc Shock Tube and detailed computational chemistry. The large heat fluxes anticipated by missions has driven interest in new TPS materials, in particular woven materials, which may be enabling but have never been flown before. Consequently, multiscale models are in development to describe properties and performance of the materials from micro- to system-scale. The goal is to not only provide accurate thermal response but also to inform thermostructural reliability predictions for extreme entries. Additionally, new computational models have been developed to evaluate performance of non-destructive evaluation techniques which are vital to establishing acceptance of systems to be free of manufacturing faults like material cracking, voids, and debonding. Finally, in the area of guidance and control, aerocapture has been shown conceptually to provide a number of mission benefits, including reducing transit time and increasing payload fraction. The ESM project is building a launch-to-landing trajectory simulation capability to enable detailed studies of aerocapture maneuvers in the context of Giant planets missions. The final presentation and paper will describe each of these topics in detail, including discussion of specific gaps and the technical approach to solving them. In addition, the final paper will briefly discuss ongoing coordination between ESM project work and an ESA-funded technology development activity comprised of validation testing in the Oxford T6, IRS PWK and IST ESTHER tunnels, as well as state-to-state modeling of the shock layer to better represent non-Boltzmann energy distributions leading to non-equilibrium radiation.

Entry systems↗

Conjunction Assessment and Deconfliction Paradigm for Co-Located Satellite Constellations With on-Spacecraft “Autonomous” Flight Dynamics Control

Satellite constellations that employ on-spacecraft flight dynamics and conjunction assessment (CA) approaches face particular challenges. First, they must arrange to obtain and upload to the constellation satellite close approach information, such as Conjunction Data Messages, so that their on-board systems will have the data they need to make informed CA decisions. Second, given current latencies in obtaining CA screening information, such systems often cannot obtain dedicated screenings of their proposed maneuvers before they are executed. Third, they usually cannot engage in real time with owner/operators (O/Os) with whom they may come into conjunction, relying instead on pre-arranged courses of action that may or may not fit a given situation well. Despite these difficulties, it is nonetheless possible, as operators such as SpaceX have demonstrated, to operate safely using on-board CA calculations, in the presence of a largely collaborative operating environment. The situation breaks down, however, when two constellations that operate with such a paradigm are placed in the same orbital region and will experience conjunctions with each other. Each may have a vague idea of where the other’s satellites are, or perhaps even a somewhat precise idea if they exchange O/O ephemerides, but neither will know the other’s more immediate maneuver intentions, especially for situations in which they are in a high-risk conjunction with each other and a mitigation maneuver is required. As there is no formalized way for these automated systems to ascertain each other’s intentions for this type of conjunction, it is quite possible that each spacecraft may choose a maneuver that results in the two objects’ colliding. An opportunity to develop a solution to this problem was presented by the NASA “Starling” project, a small experimental constellation developed to demonstrate autonomous satellite control and constellation reconfiguration and for which a launch was obtained that, serendipitously, will place this constellation close to the SpaceX Starlink constellation. Because the NASA constellation is experimental, an extended mission part of the mission has been negotiated to implement and test mechanisms for resolving the problem of co-located constellations with on-board flight dynamics control. For the last eighteen months, a consortium among NASA Ames (the Starling satellite providers), NASA CARA (the Agency organization responsible for conjunction assessment), Space X, and the Department of Commerce (in observer status) has met regularly to assemble a concept of operations for a robust solution to this problem and has developed a prototype ground node that will serve as a needed CA screening and information dispensary. The approach and methods, as well as the active employment of the developed ground node, will be tested both in simulation before actual use and then in actual spacecraft operations, which are anticipated to begin in January 2024. This paper will describe the co-located autonomously-controlled constellation problem and the developed solution in detail, outlining what ground node (i.e., government) infrastructure and features are required, what particular capabilities are needed by the constellations themselves in order to make use of this deconfliction paradigm, and the migration path forward to allow such a capability set to be incorporated by the Department of Commerce’s space traffic coordination system.

Conjunction Assessment↗

Leaf-level physiological strategies related to productivity and plasticity of Populus in the Southeastern United States

Introduction: Populus and its hybrids are attractive bioenergy crops and the southeastern United States has broad ability to supply bioenergy markets with woody biomass. Breeding and hybridization have led to superior eastern cottonwood (Populus deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall) and hybrid poplars adapted to a wide variety of site types not suited for agricultural production. In order to maximize productivity and minimize inputs, genotypes need to efficiently use available site resources and tolerate environmental stresses. In addition, we need to determine plasticity of traits and their coordination across sites to select traits that will broadly characterize genotypes. Therefore, our study objectives were to determine (1) which leaf traits were correlated with growth, (2) if traits and genotypes exhibited significant plasticity across sites, and (3) how traits were coordinated within and across sites and Populus taxa. Methods: We measured trees at two sites in northeastern Mississippi, United States: one upland and one alluvial terrace site. Genotypes included eastern cottonwoods as well as F 1 crosses of eastern cottonwood and P. maximowiczii (Henry), P. nigra (L.) and P. trichocarpa (Torr. & Gray). Results: We found that sites differed in which leaf traits were correlated with productivity; with water use efficiency specifically being positively correlated with growth at an alluvial terrace site, but negatively correlated with growth at an upland site. Tree height growth, leaf isotope composition (δ 13 C and δ 15 N), as well as leaf mass per area (LMA) exhibited the least plasticity across sites, while physiological gas exchange parameters and leaf nitrogen concentration exhibited the highest plasticity. Broadly across taxa, leaf carbon isotope ratios were correlated with intrinsic water use efficiency, and stomatal conductance was positively correlated with photosynthetic nitrogen use efficiency across sites, while leaf nitrogen isotope ratios exhibited contrasting relationships with leaf nitrogen concentration. Discussion: Overall, these results allow us to refine selections of productive genotypes based on site conditions and site-specific relationships with physiological parameters to better match Populus taxa with sites and landowner objectives.

bioenergy feedstocks↗

Modeling and Simulation of Variable Mass, Flexible Structures

The advent of the new Ares I launch vehicle has highlighted the need for advanced dynamic analysis tools for variable mass, flexible structures. This system is composed of interconnected flexible stages or components undergoing rapid mass depletion through the consumption of solid or liquid propellant. In addition to large rigid body configuration changes, the system simultaneously experiences elastic deformations. In most applications, the elastic deformations are compatible with linear strain-displacement relationships and are typically modeled using the assumed modes technique. The deformation of the system is approximated through the linear combination of the products of spatial shape functions and generalized time coordinates. Spatial shape functions are traditionally composed of normal mode shapes of the system or even constraint modes and static deformations derived from finite element models of the system. Equations of motion for systems undergoing coupled large rigid body motion and elastic deformation have previously been derived through a number of techniques [1]. However, in these derivations, the mode shapes or spatial shape functions of the system components were considered constant. But with the Ares I vehicle, the structural characteristics of the system are changing with the mass of the system. Previous approaches to solving this problem involve periodic updates to the spatial shape functions or interpolation between shape functions based on system mass or elapsed mission time. These solutions often introduce misleading or even unstable numerical transients into the system. Plus, interpolation on a shape function is not intuitive. This paper presents an approach in which the shape functions are held constant and operate on the changing mass and stiffness matrices of the vehicle components. Each vehicle stage or component finite element model is broken into dry structure and propellant models. A library of propellant models is used to describe the distribution of mass in the fuel tank or Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) case for various propellant levels. Based on the mass consumed by the liquid engine or SRB, the appropriate propellant model is coupled with the dry structure model for the stage. Then using vehicle configuration data, the integrated vehicle model is assembled and operated on by the constant system shape functions. The system mode shapes and frequencies can then be computed from the resulting generalized mass and stiffness matrices for that mass configuration. The rigid body mass properties of the vehicle are derived from the integrated vehicle model. The coupling terms between the vehicle rigid body motion and elastic deformation are also updated from the constant system shape functions and the integrated vehicle model. This approach was first used to analyze variable mass spinning beams and then prototyped into a generic dynamics simulation engine. The resulting code was tested against Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV-)class problems worked in the TREETOPS simulation package and by Wilson [2]. The Ares I System Integration Laboratory (SIL) is currently being developed at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to test vehicle avionics hardware and software in a hardware-in-the-loop (HWIL) environment and certify that the integrated system is prepared for flight. The Ares I SIL utilizes the Ares Real-Time Environment for Modeling, Integration, and Simulation (ARTEMIS) tool to simulate the launch vehicle and stimulate avionics hardware. Due to the presence of vehicle control system filters and the thrust oscillation suppression system, which are tuned to the structural characteristics of the vehicle, ARTEMIS must incorporate accurate structural models of the Ares I launch vehicle. The ARTEMIS core dynamics simulation models the highly coupled nature of the vehicle flexible body dynamics, propellant slosh, and vehicle nozzle inertia effects combined with mass and flexible body properties that vary significant with time during the flight. All forces that act on the vehicle during flight must be simulated, including deflected engine thrust force, spatially distributed aerodynamic forces, gravity, and reaction control jet thrust forces. These forces are used to excite an integrated flexible vehicle, slosh, and nozzle dynamics model for the vehicle stack that simulates large rigid body translations and rotations along with small elastic deformations. Highly effective matrix math operations on a distributed, threaded high-performance simulation node allow ARTEMIS to retain up to 30 modes of flex for real-time simulation. Stage elements that separate from the stack during flight are propagated as independent rigid six degrees of freedom (6DOF) bodies. This paper will present the formulation of the resulting equations of motion, solutions to example problems, and describe the resulting dynamics simulation engine within ARTEMIS.

Tobbe, Patrick A.↗

Empirical evidence that mean soil contaminant concentration is not a conservative indicator of external exposure to wildlife

Adequate information on external exposure is often a limiting factor in ecological risk assessments because of a lack of exposure data for free-ranging animals as they interact with a heterogeneous distribution of contaminants. Instead, most wildlife exposure data are estimated from model simulations. However, empirical exposure data are rarely available to verify model results, or to test fundamental assumptions inherent in exposure assessments. We used novel, GPS-coupled radiation dosimeters on reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) to quantify their external exposure for five months in a Chernobyl fallout affected mountainous area of Norway. The exposure data were then used to test a fundamental assumption in screening-level risk assessments: Mean soil contaminant concentrations can be used to conservatively estimate chronic external exposures to representative animals. External exposure and GPS coordinates were obtained hourly and compared to model simulations of exposure based on airborne surveys of 137 Cs soil contamination. Our objectives were to determine 1) if modelled dose estimates based on mean 137 Cs soil concentrations were conservative, and 2) if modelled dose estimates could be improved by adjusting for spatial–temporal heterogeneity of contaminants using 137 Cs concentrations within reindeers’ GPS-defined home ranges and core areas. We found that external exposure modelled from mean soil contaminant concentrations underestimated exposure by 70% compared to empirical measurements from GPS-dosimeter collars worn on individual animals. Using area-weighted mean contaminant levels within the animals’ home range improved the model estimates, but still underestimated the field dosimeter data by 53%. The best estimate of external exposure was obtained when high-use areas within their home range, along with spatial heterogeneity of the contaminant, was accounted for by using area-weighted mean soil contaminant levels within GPS-derived core areas. Accounting for temporal use of core areas within animals’ home range provided a 24% improvement. Here, a comparison of our analyses to similar work performed on Chernobyl wolves found the two studies concur that risk assessors should be cautious in relying on the paradigm of using averaged soil contaminant levels to provide conservative estimates of external exposure to representative individuals. Results of modelled external exposure based on mean soil contaminant concentrations could misguide assessors and cause inappropriate management decisions.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v2.0) contribution to CMIP7

The first version of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) coordinated key simulations exploring the role of individual forcings in past, current and future climate as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). The simulations have been used extensively in the literature for detection and attribution of long-term changes, constraining projections of climate change, attributing extreme events and understanding drivers of past and future simulated climate changes. Attribution studies using DAMIP v1.0 simulations underpinned prominent assessments of human-induced warming in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. Here, we describe the set of DAMIP v2.0 simulations, proposed for the next phase of CMIP, CMIP7. Detection and attribution studies rely on pre-industrial control simulations and historical simulations, which will be part of the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) set of simulations for CMIP7. In addition, we identify the three highest-priority single-forcing experiments for CMIP7 to be run as “Assessment Fast Track” simulations in support of the Seventh Assessment Report of the IPCC: simulations with natural forcings only, anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases only and anthropogenic aerosols only. Beyond this, the DAMIP v2.0 experimental design includes full-column ozone-only simulations and land-use-only simulations, such that the set of individual forcing experiments, when these are considered together, represents the full set of historical forcings. While concentration-driven simulations are prioritised for attribution, emissions-driven versions of the DAMIP experiments are also proposed to support understanding of the influence of carbon-cycle feedbacks on the simulated responses to individual forcings.

Gillett, Nathan P. [Environment and Climate Change↗

SPRUCE Vegetation Phenology in Experimental Plots from Phenocam Imagery, 2015-2022

This data set consists of PhenoCam data from the SPRUCE experiment from the beginning of whole ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017) in August 2015 through March 31 of 2023, with start- and end-of-season phenological transition dates derived through the end of autumn 2022. Digital cameras, or phenocams, installed in each SPRUCE enclosure track seasonal variation in vegetation “greenness”, a proxy for vegetation phenology and associated physiological activity. Three separate regions of interest (ROIs) were defined for each camera field of view, corresponding to different vegetation types and demarcating (1) Picea trees (vegetation type EN, for evergreen needleleaf); (2) Larix trees (vegetation type DN, for deciduous needleleaf); and (3) the mixed shrub layer (vegetation type SH). This data set consists of three sets of data files: 3-day summary product files: One file for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type), characterizing vegetation color at a 3-day time step Contains 35 files in *.csv format inside a compressed (*.zip) file. Transition date file: Estimates “greenness rising” (spring) and “greenness falling” (autumn) transition dates derived from the smoothed daily green chromatic coordinate (GCC) values, for each camera and each ROI (i.e. vegetation type) Contains one file in *.csv format Snow flag files: Indicate days with snow on trees or snow on ground for each experimental enclosure Contains two files in *.csv format, one for snow on trees and one for snow on ground This data set consists of two sets of companion files: Accompanying HTML files show the 90th quantiles of the mean GCC plotted together with transition dates for each vegetation type and plot. Contains three files in HTML format, one for each vegetation type One additional file in HTML format with the transition dates plotted for each vegetation type, by year R files for processing Phenocam files and flags. Contains five files in R file (*.R) format in one compressed (*.zip) file User Note: All imagery is posted in near-real time to the PhenoCam Project web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/), where it is publicly available. Scroll to “spruce” in the Gallery or link directly to the 29 SPRUCE cameras at https://tinyurl.com/y7z5mau7. The data reported here are based on the complete camera record from SPRUCE and supersedes the previously released phenocam datasets (see Related Data Sets). The estimated transition dates for previously released datasets may differ slightly (in most cases, by ±3 days or less), because following standard PhenoCam processing protocols (Richardson et al. 2018, Scientific Data), smoothing and interpolation, outlier removal, and transition date estimation are always conducted using the full data record.

SPRUCE Experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, Sp↗

Solar Dynamics Observatory Guidance, Navigation, and Control System Overview

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) was designed and built at the Goddard Space Flight Center, launched from Cape Canaveral on February 11, 2010, and reached its final geosynchronous science orbit on March 16, 2010. The purpose of SDO is to observe the Sun and continuously relay data to a dedicated ground station. SDO remains Sun-pointing throughout most of its mission for the instruments to take measurements of the Sun. The SDO attitude control system (ACS) is a single-fault tolerant design. Its fully redundant attitude sensor complement includes sixteen coarse Sun sensors (CSSs), a digital Sun sensor (DSS), three two-axis inertial reference units (IRUs), and two star trackers (STs). The ACS also makes use of the four guide telescopes included as a part of one of the science instruments. Attitude actuation is performed using four reaction wheels assemblies (RWAs) and eight thrusters, with a single main engine used to provide velocity-change thrust for orbit raising. The attitude control software has five nominal control modes, three wheel-based modes and two thruster-based modes. A wheel-based Safehold running in the attitude control electronics box improves the robustness of the system as a whole. All six modes are designed on the same basic proportional-integral-derivative attitude error structure, with more robust modes setting their integral gains to zero. This paper details the final overall design of the SDO guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system and how it was used in practice during SDO launch, commissioning, and nominal operations. This overview will include the ACS control modes, attitude determination and sensor calibration, the high gain antenna (HGA) calibration, and jitter mitigation operation. The Solar Dynamics Observatory mission is part of the NASA Living With a Star program, which seeks to understand the changing Sun and its effects on the Solar System, life, and society. To this end, the SDO spacecraft carries three Sun-observing instruments: Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), led by Stanford University; Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), led by Lockheed Martin Space and Astrophysics Laboratory; and Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), led by the University of Colorado. The basic mission is to observe the Sun for a very high percentage of the 5-year mission (10-year goal) with long stretches of uninterrupted observations and with constant, high-data-rate transmission to a dedicated ground station to be located in White Sands, New Mexico. These goals guided the design of the spacecraft bus that will carry and service the three-instrument payload. Overarching design goals for the bus are geosynchronous orbit, near-constant Sun observations with the ability to fly through eclipses, and constant HGA contact with the dedicated ground station. A three-axis stabilized ACS is needed both to point at the Sun accurately and to keep the roll about the Sun vector correctly positioned with respect to the solar north pole. This roll control is especially important for the magnetic field imaging of HM I. The mission requirements have several general impacts on the ACS design. Both the AIA and HMI instruments are very sensitive to the blurring caused by jitter. Each has an image stabilization system (ISS) with some ability to filter out high frequency motion, but below the bandwidth of the ISS the control system must compensate for disturbances within the ACS bandwidth or avoid exciting jitter at higher frequencies. Within the ACS bandwidth, the control requirement imposed by AIA is to place the center of the solar disk no more than 2 arc sec, 3 , from a body-defined target based on one of the GTs that accompany the instrument. This body-defined target, called the science reference boresight (SRB), was determined from the postlaunch orientation of the GTs by averaging the bounding telescope boresights for pitch to get a pitch SRB coordinate, and by averaging the bounding boresights for yaw toet the yaw SRB coordinate. The location of this SRB in the 0.5-deg field-of-view for each GT then becomes the central target for each telescope; one GT is selected for use as the ACS controlling guide telescope (CGT) at any given time. Fine Sun-pointing is effected based on this SRB for all three instruments when the Sun is within the linear range of the CGT. In addition to limiting jitter, HMI science requires averaging several observations, making the instrument sensitive to low frequency motion that induces differential motion between each observation. This requires the spacecraft attitude to be stable about the roll axis to approximately 10 arcsec over a ten-minute period. Instrument calibrations require that the spacecraft point the SRB up to 2.5 degrees in pitch and yaw away from the center of the Sun, placing the Sun outside the field-of-view of the guide telescopes. In such instances, when the GTs cannot provide the definitive target for the ACS, on-board attitude determination combined with ephemeris prediction of the Sun direction must provide the definitive target. EVE is capable of observing the Sun with less dependence on attitude control. However, the ground data processing needs for calibrations result in the most strict attitude knowledge requirements for the mission: [35,70,70] arcsec, 3 , of knowledge with respect to the center of the solar disk. In addition to driving the ACS sensor selection, the knowledge requirements, which have their effect primarily during Inertial mode calibrations, drive the accuracy requirements for the solar ephemeris. The need to achieve and maintain geosynchronous orbit (GEO) drove the need for high-efficiency propulsive systems and appropriate attitude control. The main engine provided high specific impulse for the maneuvers to attain GEO, while the smaller ACS thrusters managed the disturbance torques of the larger engine and provided the capability for much smaller adjustment burns on orbit. SDO s large solar profile means that solar radiation pressure is a large torque disturbance, and the momentum buildup from this disturbance and the GEO altitude drives the ACS to use thrusters to manage vehicle momentum. The demanding data capture budget for the mission, however, requires SDO to avoid frequent thruster maneuvers, while concerns about on-orbit jitter restrict the maximum desired wheel speeds desired from the RWAs. The plan for on-orbit wheel speed and momentum management will be discussed as well as what is now being done in operation after the jitter environment was characterized. The SDO ACS hardware complement is single-fault tolerant. Two main processors carry virtually identical copies of the command and data handling and ACS software, and two identical attitude control electronics (ACE) boxes carry Coldfire processors with contingency ACS software and other hardware interface cards; the ACE structure allows reaction wheels to be commanded by the Sun-pointing Safehold independent of the Mil Std 1553 data bus. The sixteen Adcole CSSs are grouped into primary and backup sets of eight sensors, each set providing the ability to calculate a sun vector. Each set of eight eyes provides full 4 -steradian coverage. The Adcole DSS comprises an optics head and a separate electronics box providing a 1553 data interface. The electronics box is mounted inside the Faraday cage created by the spacecraft bus module. The DSS head with its 32- deg square FOV is mounted on the instrument module with its boresight along the spacecraft X axis, nearly aligned with the Sun during observations. Adcole has designed the DSS calibration parameters so that the accuracy is 0.24 arcminutes within 10 deg of the boresight, and diminishes to 3 arcminutes as the Sun moves towards the edges of its FOV . This DSS calibration scheme provides higher accuracy attitude determination over the range of the instrument calibration maneuvers.

Morgenstern, Wendy M.↗