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DOE OSTI2024

Functional Data Analysis in Wearable Body Sensor Networks

Improving response time of indirect room-size calorimeters is still an outstanding problem in metabolic research. Accurate estimates of instantaneous rates of gaseous exchange require numerical differentiation of measured gaseousgas concentrations. We propose a new method to estimate the instantaneous gaseousgas exchange rates in indirect calorimetry. In contrast to the previously developed techniques, the method addresses the problem of differentiation of gaseous concentrations as an ill-posed problem. By applying the method of regularization, the problem of differentiation is converted into a well-posed problem resulting in smooth and consistent gaseous exchange rates. The validity of the method is tested on a large dataset of calorimeter experiments which included 313 human experiments along with 231 alcohol combustion experiments. It is demonstrated that the method is able to reliably differentiate between the “unphysiological” process of alcohol combustion and physiological variations produced by human metabolism. The method also allowed unraveling the previously unreported relative kinetics of O2 consumption and Respiratory Quotient (RQ) in humans. It was found that the kinetics of oxidative fuel selection lags behind the energy expenditure in humans exhibiting some sort of oxidative inertia. The time lag varies from 2-3 min up to 30 min, depending on particular individual. No such lag was found in alcohol combustion experiments. In addition to the relative kinetics of substrate oxidation, two statistical indexes reflecting variability of minute-by-minute RQ were estimated. The indexes were the RQ’s standard deviation and RQ’s first-order derivative. Both indexes showed statistically significant difference between human experiments and alcohol combustion experiments. We conclude that the proposed method can consistently extract physiologically-relevant information from noisy calorimetry data and the aforesaid information can provide additional insights into the mechanism of metabolic fuel selection in humans.

60 - APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the measurement of shape: With applications to lunar regolith

With the renewed commitment from NASA and other commercial entities for a presence on the Moon, the importance of understanding the characteristics of lunar regolith and how to utilize it have become the target of increasing scrutiny. Much of what is known about lunar regolith was collected during and immediately after the Apollo program, however, analytical techniques and instrumentation have advanced in leaps and bounds in the subsequent decades. Specifically, dynamic image analysis systems have advanced to the point that millions of particles can have morphological characteristics automatically determined in relatively short time frames. Particle morphological data was collected on several lunar samples and a pair of widely used regolith simulants to ascertain the accuracy of these simulants and to explore statistical analysis methods of these large datasets. It is found that these morphology datasets can vary widely depending on the particle size of the particles, and simple averaging of the data skews the results heavily towards the numerically abundant size ranges, the fines. Different reporting methods are suggested to ameliorate these problems. When applied to the lunar regolith, the particles are noted to be less morphologically complex than initially suspected. Compared to the lunar material, the simulants are found to contain some more morphological variability and angular grains. Such difference is likely due to the wildly different comminution processes that these different powder systems are subjected to.

2D shape↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum mechanical closure of partial differential equations with symmetries

We develop a statistical framework for the dynamical closure of spatiotemporal dynamics governed by partial differential equations. Employing the mathematical framework of quantum mechanics to embed the original classical dynamics into a quantum mechanical representation, we use the space of quantum density operators to model the unresolved degrees of freedom of the original dynamics in a statistical sense, and the framework of quantum measurement to predict their contributions to the resolved dynamics. The embedded dynamics is discretized by a positivity preserving process, leading to a compressed representation that is invariant under the dynamical symmetries of the resolved dynamics. We present a data based formulation of the closure scheme and apply it to a closure problem for the shallow water equations. The numerical results demonstrate that our closure model can accurately predict the main features of the true dynamics, including for out of sample initial conditions.

Delay embedding↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemomechanics in alloy phase stability

We describe a first-principles statistical mechanics method to calculate the free energies of crystalline alloys that depend on temperature, composition, and strain. The approach relies on an extension of the alloy cluster expansion to include an explicit dependence on homogeneous strain in addition to site occupation variables that track the degree of chemical ordering. The method is applied to the Si-Ge binary alloy and is used to calculate free energies that describe phase stability under arbitrary epitaxial constraints. We find that while the incoherent phase diagram (in which coexisting phases are not affected by coherency constraints) hosts a miscibility gap, coherent phase equilibrium predicts ordering and negative enthalpies of mixing. Instead of chemical instability, the chemomechanical free energy exhibits instabilities along directions that couple the composition of the alloy with a volumetric strain order parameter. Furthermore, this has fundamental implications for phase field models of spinodal decomposition as it indicates the importance of gradient energy coefficients that couple gradients in composition with gradients in strain.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploration of multifidelity UQ sampling strategies for computer network applications.

Network modeling is a powerful tool to enable rapid analysis of complex systems that can be challenging to study directly using physical testing. Here, two approaches are considered: emulation and simulation. The former runs real software on virtualized hardware, while the latter mimics the behavior of network components and their interactions in software. Although emulation provides an accurate representation of physical networks, this approach alone cannot guarantee the characterization of the system under realistic operative conditions. Operative conditions for physical networks are often characterized by intrinsic variability (payload size, packet latency, etc.) or a lack of precise knowledge regarding the network configuration (bandwidth, delays, etc.); therefore uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies should be also employed. UQ strategies require multiple evaluations of the system with a number of evaluation instances that roughly increases with the problem dimensionality, i.e., the number of uncertain parameters. It follows that a typical UQ workflow for network modeling based on emulation can easily become unattainable due to its prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, a multifidelity sampling approach is discussed and applied to network modeling problems. The main idea is to optimally fuse information coming from simulations, which are a low-fidelity version of the emulation problem of interest, in order to decrease the estimator variance. By reducing the estimator variance in a sampling approach it is usually possible to obtain more reliable statistics and therefore a more reliable system characterization. Several network problems of increasing difficulty are presented. For each of them, the performance of the multifidelity estimator is compared with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, namely, Monte Carlo sampling. For all the test problems studied in this work, the multifidelity estimator demonstrated an increased efficiency with respect to MC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States

Given the increasing use of climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting for a diverse array of applications, this project assesses the sensitivities of climate model weighting strategies and their resulting ensemble means to multiple components, such as the weighting schemes, climate variables, or spatial domains of interest. The purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivities associated with multi-model weighting strategies. The analysis makes use of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their statistically downscaled counterparts created with the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method. This work focuses on historical and projected future mean precipitation and daily high temperatures of the south-central United States. Results suggest that the model weights and the corresponding weighted model means can be sensitive to the weighting strategy that is applied. For instance, when estimating model weights based on Louisiana precipitation, the weighted projections show a wetter and cooler south-central domain in the future compared to other weighting strategies. Alternatively, for example, when estimating model weights based on New Mexico temperature, the weighted projections show a drier and warmer south-central domain in the future. However, when considering the entire south-central domain in estimating the model weights, the weighted future projections show a compromise in the precipitation and temperature estimates. As for uncertainty, our matrix of results provided a more certain picture of future climate compared to the spread in the original model ensemble. If future impact assessments utilize weighting strategies, then our findings suggest that how the specific weighting strategy is used with climate projections may depend on the needs of an impact assessment or adaptation plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

Multiple object tracking with non-unique data-to-object association via generalized hypothesis testing

A generalized hypothesis testing approach is applied to the problem of tracking several objects where several different associations of data with objects are possible. Such problems occur, for instance, when attempting to distinctly track several aircraft maneuvering near each other or when tracking ships at sea. Conceptually, the problem is solved by first, associating data with objects in a statistically reasonable fashion and then, tracking with a bank of Kalman filters. The objects are assumed to have motion characterized by a fixed but unknown deterministic portion plus a random process portion modeled by a shaping filter. For example, the object might be assumed to have a mean straight line path about which it maneuvers in a random manner. Several hypothesized associations of data with objects are possible because of ambiguity as to which object the data comes from, false alarm/detection errors, and possible uncertainty in the number of objects being tracked. The statistical likelihood function is computed for each possible hypothesized association of data with objects. Then the generalized likelihood is computed by maximizing the likelihood over parameters that define the deterministic motion of the object.

Porter, D. W.↗

NASA NTRS1979

A study of solar flare electron events from October 1972 through December 1974 from Imp 7 and 8

Data from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Charged Particle Measurement Experiment aboard Imp H and J were searched for solar flare produced intensity increases in greater than 0.2-MeV electrons during the 26-month period from October 1972 through December 1974. Of the 44 solar electron events found during this period, 31 were isolated for a detailed statistical study. Systematics among the characteristics of the electron profiles (e.g., peak intensity times and count rates) and those of the associated flares (e.g., H-alpha onset times, H-alpha importance class, heliocentric coordinates, etc.) were examined, and the significant results are presented in several scatter plots. The results reveal that the time delay between the flare onset and the arrival of the peak electron intensity at 1 AU (time to maximum) is a function of the flare's deviation in heliolongitude from the solar region which was well connected to the earth via a magnetic flux tube; the well-connected flares produced electron intensity maxima in the least time.

Decker, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Gain optimization with non-linear controls

An algorithm has been developed for the analysis and design of controls for non-linear systems. The technical approach is to use statistical linearization to model the non-linear dynamics of a system by a quasi-Gaussian model. A covariance analysis is performed to determine the behavior of the dynamical system and a quadratic cost function. Expressions for the cost function and its derivatives are determined so that numerical optimization techniques can be applied to determine optimal feedback laws. The primary application for this paper is centered about the design of controls for nominally linear systems but where the controls are saturated or limited by fixed constraints. The analysis is general, however, and numerical computation requires only that the specific non-linearity be considered in the analysis.

Slater, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Variability of X-ray emission from OB stars

The variability in soft X-ray emission of 12 OB stars is studied. Two different methods of analysis, one more suitable for detecting short-term variations, the other aimed at detecting long time-scale variations, are applied to all stars in the sample. The long-term variability analysis shows that Cyg-OB2 8A Zeta Pup and Delta Ori exhibit significant count rate variations between different data sections. Similar variations are marginally detected in 15 Mon; the count rate variations for the other eight stars are consistent with statistical fluctuations. The light curve of Cyg-OB2 8A suggests the existence of two different emission levels. The short-term variability analysis detects marginal variability in Tau Sco with an effective amplitude of about 30 percent and a time scale of about 50 s. The upper limits to the effective short-term variability amplitude for all other sample stars are in the 10-30 percent range.

Collura, A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Application of Time-resolved PIV to Supersonic Hot Jets

This presentation lays out the ground-breaking work at bringing high-speed (25kHz) particle image velocimetry (PIV) to bear on measurements of noise-producing turbulence in hot jets. The work is still in progress in that the tremendous amount of data obtained are still be analyzed, but the method has been validated and initial results of interest to jet noise modeling have been obtained. After a brief demonstration of the validation process used on the data, results are shown for hot jets at different temperatures and Mach numbers. Comparisons of first order statistics show the relative indifference of the turbulence to the presence of shocks and independence to jet temperature. What does come out is that when the shock-containing jets are in a screech mode the turbulence is highly elevated, showing the importance of removing screech phenomena from model-scale jets before applying findings to full-scale aircraft which typically do not contain shocks.

Bridges, James↗

NASA NTRS2013

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report Third Quarter FY · 13

The AMU team worked on seven tasks for their customers: (1) Ms. Crawford completed the objective lightning forecast tool for east -central Florida airports and delivered the tool and the final report to the customers. (2) Ms. Shafer continued work for Vandenberg Air Force Base on an automated tool to relate pressure gradients to peak winds. (3) Dr. Huddleston updated and delivered the tool that shows statistics on the timing of the first lightning strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) area. (4) Dr. Bauman continued work on a severe weather forecast tool focused on the Eastern Range (ER). (5) Ms. Crawford acquired the software and radar data needed to create a dual-Doppler analysis over the east-central Florida and KSC/CCAFS areas. (6) Mr. Decker continued developing a wind pairs database for the Launch Services Program to use when evaluating upper-level winds for launch vehicles. (7) Dr. Watson continued work to assimilate observational data into the high-resolution model configurations she created for Wallops Flight Facility and the ER.

Bauman, William↗

NASA NTRS1983

Sensory redundancy management: The development of a design methodology for determining threshold values through a statistical analysis of sensor output data

Sensor redundancy management (SRM) requires a system which will detect failures and reconstruct avionics accordingly. A probability density function to determine false alarm rates, using an algorithmic approach was generated. Microcomputer software was developed which will print out tables of values for the cummulative probability of being in the domain of failure; system reliability; and false alarm probability, given a signal is in the domain of failure. The microcomputer software was applied to the sensor output data for various AFT1 F-16 flights and sensor parameters. Practical recommendations for further research were made.

Scalzo, F.↗

DOE OSTI2021

End-exclusion zones in strongly stretched, molten polymer brushes of arbitrary shape

Theories of strongly stretched polymer brushes, particularly the parabolic brush theory, are valuable for providing analytically tractable predictions for the thermodynamic behavior of surface-grafted polymers in a wide range of settings. Furthermore, the parabolic brush limit fails to describe polymers grafted to convex curved substrates, such as the surfaces of spherical nanoparticles or the interfaces of strongly segregated block copolymers. It has previously been shown that strongly stretched curved brushes require a boundary layer devoid of free chain ends, requiring modifications of the theoretical analysis. While this “end-exclusion zone” has been successfully incorporated into the descriptions of brushes grafted onto the outer surfaces of cylinders and spheres, the behavior of brushes on surfaces of arbitrary curvature has not yet been studied. We present a formulation of the strong-stretching theory for molten brushes on the surfaces of arbitrary curvature and identify four distinct regimes of interest for which brushes are predicted to possess end-exclusion zones, notably including regimes of positive mean curvature but negative Gaussian curvature. Through numerical solutions of the strong-stretching brush equations, we report predicted scaling of the size of the end-exclusion zone, the chain end distribution, the chain polarization, and the free energy of stretching with mean and Gaussian surface curvatures. Through these results, we present a comprehensive picture of how the brush geometry influences the end-exclusion zones and exact strong-stretching free energies, which can be applied, for example, to model the full spectrum of brush geometries encountered in block copolymer melt assembly.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

The picasso map-making code: application to a simulation of the QUIJOTE northern sky survey

ABSTRACT Map-making is an important step for the data analysis of cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. It consists of converting the data, which are typically a long, complex, and noisy collection of measurements, into a map, which is an image of the observed sky. We present in this paper a new map-making code named picasso (Polarization and Intensity CArtographer for Scanned Sky Observations), which was implemented to construct intensity and polarization maps from the Multi Frequency Instrument (MFI) of the QUIJOTE (Q-U-I Joint TEnerife) CMB polarization experiment. picasso is based on the destriping algorithm, and is suited to address specific issues of ground-based microwave observations, with a technique that allows the fit of a template function in the time domain, during the map-making step. This paper describes the picasso code, validating it with simulations and assessing its performance. For this purpose, we produced realistic simulations of the QUIJOTE-MFI survey of the northern sky (approximately ∼20 000 deg2), and analysed the reconstructed maps with picasso, using real and harmonic space statistics. We show that, for this sky area, picasso is able to reconstruct, with high fidelity, the injected signal, recovering all the scales with ℓ > 10 in TT, EE, and BB. The signal error is better than 0.001 per cent at 20 < ℓ < 200. Finally, we validated some of the methods that will be applied to the real wide-survey data, like the detection of the CMB anisotropies via cross-correlation analyses. Despite that the implementation of picasso is specific for QUIJOTE-MFI data, it could be adapted to other experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1979

Monte Carlo analysis of satellite debris footprint dispersion

A comprehensive study is performed to investigate satellite debris impact point dispersion using a combination of Monte Carlo statistical analysis and parametric methods. The Monte Carlo technique accounts for nonlinearities in the entry point dispersion, which is represented by a covariance matrix of position and velocity errors. Because downrange distance of impact is a monotonic function of debris ballistic coefficient, a parametric method is useful for determining dispersion boundaries. The scheme is applied in the present analysis to estimate the Skylab footprint dispersions for a controlled reentry. A significant increase in the footprint dispersion is noticed for satellite breakup above a 200,000-ft altitude. A general discussion of the method used for analysis is presented together with some typical results obtained for the Skylab deboost mission, which was designed before NASA abandoned plans for a Skylab controlled reentry.

Rao, P. P.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A reinvestigation of the rate of the C/+/ + H2 radiative association reaction

It is noted that new experimental results and statistical theories have prompted a reinvestigation of the rate coefficient of the interstellar reaction in which C(+) + H2 yields CH2(+) + h(nu) in the 10-100 K temperature range. The results presented here indicate a rate coefficient between 10 to the -16 and 10 to the -15 cu cm/s at all temperatures studied. In applying the modified thermal and phase space theories, it is expected that they will be as accurate as for radiative association as for three-body association, provided the ab initio value for the radiative decay rate is correct. It is expected that the calculated values of the rate coefficient will be accurate to within an order of magnitude and will have the correct temperature dependence.

Herbst, E.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Formulation and implementation of nonstationary adaptive estimation algorithm with applications to air-data reconstruction

The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the space shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.

Whitmore, S. A.↗