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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Vermont Wildland Fires: Investigating the Role of Antecedent Conditions and Recent Environmental Trends in Exacerbating Fire Risk and Potential in Vermont

Under a changing climate, increases in dry conditions and extreme heat events are projected to exacerbate wildfire risk in the northeastern U.S. In recent years, Vermont has observed higher annual temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, increased annual precipitation, extreme flood events, and decreased snowfall. The mechanisms through which environmental factors contribute to increased fire risk in humid environments, such as Vermont, are poorly understood. The team partnered with the National Weather Service, the Vermont Division of Forests, and the University of Vermont to investigate phenological trends and antecedent conditions influencing wildland fire risk. For the phenological analysis, from 2001 to 2023, vegetation data, phenological dates, and snow water equivalent (SWE) values were accessed from Landsat 5Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9OLI-2, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS), respectively. For the antecedent condition analysis, from 2008 to 2023, soil moisture, Environmental Stress Index, wind speed, minimum relative humidity, and daily precipitation data were obtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), SERVIR, gridMET Wind, gridMET Humidity, and NClimGrid, respectively. The study found that green-up dates over the study period remain relatively stable, while snowmelt dates appear increasingly variable. Minimum relative humidity was the most significant environmental variable correlated with wildfire risk in Vermont. Results from this study will inform the National Weather Service's preparation of fire forecasts before prescribed burns and support community outreach by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.

Wildland Fire↗

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wind tunnel test of model target thrust reversers for the Pratt and Whitney aircraft JT8D-100 series engines installed on a 727-200 airplane

The results of a low speed wind tunnel test of 0.046 scale model target thrust reversers installed on a 727-200 model airplane are presented. The full airplane model was mounted on a force balance, except for the nacelles and thrust reversers, which were independently mounted and isolated from it. The installation had the capability of simulating the inlet airflows and of supplying the correct proportions of primary and secondary air to the nozzles. The objectives of the test were to assess the compatibility of the thrust reversers target door design with the engine and airplane. The following measurements were made: hot gas ingestion at the nacelle inlets; model lift, drag, and pitching moment; hot gas impingement on the airplane structure; and qualitative assessment of the rudder effectiveness. The major parameters controlling hot gas ingestion were found to be thrust reverser orientation, engine power setting, and the lip height of the bottom thrust reverser doors on the side nacelles. The thrust reversers tended to increase the model lift, decrease the drag, and decrease the pitching moment.

Hambly, D.↗

Results of a landing gear loads test using a 0.0405-scale model (16-0) of the space shuttle orbiter in the Rockwell International NAAL wind tunnel (OA163), volume 1

Experimental aerodynamic investigations were conducted on a sting mounted scale representation of the 140C outer mold line space shuttle orbiter configuration in the low speed wind tunnel. The primary test objectives were to define the orbiter landing gear system pressure loading and to record landing gear door and strut hingemoment levels. Secondary objectives included recording the aerodynamic influence of various landing gear configurations on orbiter force data as well as investigating 40 x 80 ft. Ames Wind Tunnel strut simulation effects on both orbiter landing gear loads and aerodynamic characteristics. Testing was conducted at a Mach number of 0.17, free stream dynamic pressure of 42.5 PSF, and Reynolds number per unit length of 1.2 million per foot. Angle of attack variation was 0 to 20 while yaw angles ranged from -10 to 10 deg.

Mennell, R. C.↗

Physics-Informed AI for Climate and Weather Risk Prediction (Final Report)

As part of the work Terrafuse developed 1) a model for wildfire risk in California, and 2) a model for downscaled wind fields from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) numerical models. The wildfire model is based on 20 years of historical data and captures the dependence of wildfire incidence and spread on climatic, weather and land-use variables by training a machine learning model. Nonlinear relationships between input features are learned and expressed by the model and model transparency allows features to be ranked and interpreted. The fire model is of use for accurately predicting real-time daily and long-term wildfire risk for use cases in energy and insurance. The downscaled wind model is a spatio-temporal deep learning model that emulates the influence of high-resolution variables on wind speed, allowing coarse-resolution operational NWP models to be accurately expressed on fine grids at high resolution, with application to wind energy and weather forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NOW-23: the 2023 National Offshore Wind Data Set

In this report, we present the latest wind resource data specifically tailored for offshore regions in the United States. The data set, known as the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), has been developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and its partners, and surpasses the previous resource data set, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was released approximately ten years ago, in its offshore component. The WIND Toolkit has been widely utilized by stakeholders involved in wind resource assessments across the continental United States. However, with significant advancements in numerical weather prediction modeling over the past decade, the NOW-23 data set incorporates the latest research and development progress to provide stakeholders with an updated and cutting-edge resource for offshore wind analysis. The NOW-23 data set is created using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its output is available, as for its predecessor, at 5-minute time resolution and 2-kilometer horizontal spatial resolution. However, the NOW-23 data set improves upon the WIND Toolkit through: 1. A modeling period of at least 20 years (and as long as 23 years in selected regions), starting in 2000 (compared to the 7-year 2007–2013 modeling period in the WIND Toolkit). 2. For several offshore regions, a region-specific sensitivity analysis, driven by an ensemble of WRF simulations, to assess the most adequate region-specific WRF setup. 3. An updated WRF model, from Version 3.4 used in the WIND Toolkit to Version 4.2.1 used for the NOW-23 data set, which incorporates significant research advancements. 4. The use of the state-of-the-art reanalysis product ERA5 (which supersedes the older ERA-Interim used in the WIND Toolkit) to provide atmospheric forcing at the WRF domain boundaries. Figure 1 shows the NOW-23 mean wind speed at 160 m above sea level (asl), which we use as proxy for hub-height of a commercial offshore wind turbine in this report across all regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Seasat-A satellite scatterometer - The geophysical evaluation of remotely sensed wind vectors over the ocean

A description is given of the algorithm used to convert Seasat-A satellite microwave scatterometer measurements of ocean normalized radar cross section to the neutral stability vector wind at 19.5 m height, as well as to compare these winds with high-quality surface observations. The wind vector algorithm used an empirical normalized radar cross section model function to describe the ocean normalized radar cross section's dependence on the 19.5-m neutral stability wind vector. In addition, two model functions were evaluated by means of an independent set of in situ surface wind observations from the Joint Air Sea Interaction experiment (JASIN). Better results were produced by these comparisons than the stipulated Seasat wind speed and direction accuracy specifications of + or - 2 m/sec and + or - 20 deg, respectively, over the 0-16 m/sec range of winds observed during JASIN.

Jones, W. L.↗

Approaches to wind resource verification

Verification of the regional wind energy resource assessments produced by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory addresses the question: Is the magnitude of the resource given in the assessments truly representative of the area of interest? Approaches using qualitative indicators of wind speed (tree deformation, eolian features), old and new data of opportunity not at sites specifically chosen for their exposure to the wind, and data by design from locations specifically selected to be good wind sites are described. Data requirements and evaluation procedures for verifying the resource are discussed.

Barchet, W. R.↗

A kinetic energy study of the meso beta-scale storm environment during AVE-SESAME 5 (20-21 May 1979)

Kinetic energy of the near storm environment was analyzed by meso beta scale data. It was found that horizontal winds in the 400 to 150 mb layer strengthen rapidly north of the developing convection. Peak values then decrease such that the maximum disappears 6 h later. Southeast of the storms, wind speeds above 300 mb decrease nearly 50% during the 3 h period of most intense thunderstorm activity. When the convection dissipates, wind patterns return to prestorm conditions. The mesoscale storm environment of AVE-SESAME 5 is characterized by large values of cross contour generation of kinetic energy, transfers of energy to nonresolvable scales of motion, and horizontal flux divergence. These processes are maximized within the upper troposphere and are greatest during times of strongest convection. It is shown that patterns agree with observed weather features. The southeast area of the network is examined to determine causes for vertical wind variations.

Printy, M. F.↗

Incorporation of wind shear terms into the governing equations of aircraft motion

Conventional analyses of aircraft motion in the atmosphere have neglected wind speed variability on the scales associated with many atmospheric phenomena such as thunderstorms, low-level jets, etc. These phemonena produce wind shears that have been determined as the probable cause in many recent commercial airline accidents. This paper derives the six degrees equations of motion or an aircraft incorporating the variable wind terms. The equations are presented in several coordinate systems (i.e., body coordinates, inertial coordinates, etc.). The wind shear terms, including the temporal and spatial gradients of the wind, appear differently in the various coordinate system. These terms are discussed. Also, the influence of wind shear on inputs to computing the aerodynamic coefficients such as the effects of wind velocity vector rotation on relative angular rates of rotation and on the time rate of change of angles of attack and side slip are addressed.

Frost, W.↗

Energy analysis of convectively induced wind perturbations

Budgets of divergent and rotational components of kinetic energy (KD and KR) are examined for four upper level wind speed maxima that develop during the fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE IV) and the first AVE-Severe Environmental Storms and Mesoscale Experiment (AVE-SESAME I). A similar budget analysis is performed for a low-level jet stream during AVE-SESAME I. The energetics of the four upper level speed maxima is found to have several similarities. The dominant source of KD is cross-contour flow by the divergent wind, and KD provides a major source of KR via a conversion process. Conversion from available potential energy provides an additional source of KR in three of the cases. Horizontal maps reveal that the conversions involving KD are maximized in regions poleward of the convection. Low-level jet development during AVE-SESAME I appears to be assisted by convective activity to the west.

Fuelberg, Henry E.↗

Magnetic flux transport and the sunspot-cycle evolution of coronal holes and their wind streams

The relationships between magnetic flux transport from active regions and the formation and evolution of coronal holes are examined through numerical simulations. The model utilized is based on the assumption that coronal holes represent open field regions, and that the solar-wind speed at 1 AU is universely correlated with the divergence rate of the coronal field. The evolution of coronal holes and wind streams during 1980 - 1990 is discussed, along with flux transport and the evolution of open field regions, and focus is placed on declining, rising, and maximum phases. It is concluded that supergranular diffusion spreads active region flux over the solar surface and wipes out pockets of mixed polarity, thus creating unipolar areas containing open field lines; differential rotation spreads flux in longitude and it combines with diffusion to create axisymmetric polar holes from the original active-region fields; and meridional flow accelerates the decay of low-latitude holes by carrying flux to midlatitudes.

Wang, Y.-M.↗

Cone-Probe Rake Design and Calibration for Supersonic Wind Tunnel Models

A series of experimental investigations were conducted at the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) to calibrate cone-probe rakes designed to measure the flow field on 1-2% scale, high-speed wind tunnel models from Mach 2.15 to 2.4. The rakes were developed from a previous design that exhibited unfavorable measurement characteristics caused by a high probe spatial density and flow blockage from the rake body. Calibration parameters included Mach number, total pressure recovery, and flow angularity. Reference conditions were determined from a localized UPWT test section flow survey using a 10deg supersonic wedge probe. Test section Mach number and total pressure were determined using a novel iterative technique that accounted for boundary layer effects on the wedge surface. Cone-probe measurements were correlated to the surveyed flow conditions using analytical functions and recursive algorithms that resolved Mach number, pressure recovery, and flow angle to within +/-0.01, +/-1% and +/-0.1deg , respectively, for angles of attack and sideslip between +/-8deg. Uncertainty estimates indicated the overall cone-probe calibration accuracy was strongly influenced by the propagation of measurement error into the calculated results.

Won, Mark J.↗

Integrating Wind Profiling Radars and Radiosonde Observations with Model Point Data to Develop a Decision Support Tool to Assess Upper-Level Winds for Space Launch

On the day of launch, the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers (LWOs) monitor the upper-level winds for their launch customers. During launch operations, the payload/launch team sometimes asks the LWOs if they expect the upper-level winds to change during the countdown. The LWOs used numerical weather prediction model point forecasts to provide the information, but did not have the capability to quickly retrieve or adequately display the upper-level observations and compare them directly in the same display to the model point forecasts to help them determine which model performed the best. The LWOs requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a graphical user interface (GUI) that will plot upper-level wind speed and direction observations from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Automated Meteorological Profiling System (AMPS) rawinsondes with point forecast wind profiles from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM), Rapid Refresh (RAP) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models to assess the performance of these models. The AMU suggested adding observations from the NASA 50 MHz wind profiler and one of the US Air Force 915 MHz wind profilers, both located near the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Shuttle Landing Facility, to supplement the AMPS observations with more frequent upper-level profiles. Figure 1 shows a map of KSC/CCAFS with the locations of the observation sites and the model point forecasts.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Comparison of Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements by Collocated Disdrometers

An impact-type Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer (JWD), a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD), and a laser optical OTT Particle Size and Velocity (PARSIVEL) disdrometer (PD) were used to measure the raindrop size distribution (DSD) over a 6-month period in Huntsville, Alabama. Comparisons indicate event rain totals for all three disdrometers that were in reasonable agreement with a reference rain gauge. In a relative sense, hourly composite DSDs revealed that the JWD was more sensitive to small drops (,1 mm), while the PD appeared to severely underestimate small drops less than 0.76mm in diameter. The JWD and 2DVD measured comparable number concentrations of midsize drops (1-3mm) and large drops (3-5 mm), while the PD tended to measure relatively higher drop concentrations at sizes larger than 2.44mm in diameter. This concentration disparity tended to occur when hourly rain rates and drop counts exceeded 2.5mm/h and 400/min, respectively. Based on interactions with the PD manufacturer, the partially inhomogeneous laser beam is considered the cause of the PD drop count overestimation. PD drop fall speeds followed the expected terminal fall speed relationship quite well, while the 2DVD occasionally measured slower drops for diameters larger than 2.4mm, coinciding with events where wind speeds were greater than 4m/s. The underestimation of small drops by the PD had a pronounced effect on the intercept and shape of parameters of gamma-fitted DSDs, while the overestimation of midsize and larger drops resulted in higher mean values for PD integral rain parameters

disdrometers↗