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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Forecasting of Weather Effects for the Deep Space Network

This paper presents a proposed approach for Ka-band link management for deep space applications using daily weather forecasts and discusses the tools that will be employed for operations. Performance metrics are also presented. The proposed approach will be tested in a two-year experiment campaign.

Deep Space Network (DSN)↗

Evaluation of Radiation Belt Space Weather Forecasts for Internal Charging Analyses

A variety of static electron radiation belt models, space weather prediction tools, and energetic electron datasets are used by spacecraft designers and operations support personnel as internal charging code inputs to evaluate electrostatic discharge risks in space systems due to exposure to relativistic electron environments. Evaluating the environment inputs is often accomplished by comparing whether the data set or forecast tool reliability predicts measured electron flux (or fluence over a given period) for some chosen period. While this technique is useful as a model metric, it does not provide the information necessary to evaluate whether short term deviances of the predicted flux is important in the charging evaluations. In this paper, we use a 1-D internal charging model to compute electric fields generated in insulating materials as a function of time when exposed to relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting fields are assumed to represent the "true" electric fields and are compared with electric field values computed from relativistic electron environments derived from a variety of space environment and forecast tools. Deviances in predicted fields compared to the "true" fields which depend on insulator charging time constants will be evaluated as a potential metric for determining the importance of predicted and measured relativistic electron flux deviations over a range of time scales.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Using Space Weather Variability in Evaluating the Radiation Environment Design Specifications for NASA's Constellation Program

NASA's Constellation program, initiated to fulfill the Vision for Space Exploration, will create a new generation of vehicles for servicing low Earth orbit, the Moon, and beyond. Space radiation specifications for space system hardware are necessarily conservative to assure system robustness for a wide range of space environments. Spectral models of solar particle events and trapped radiation belt environments are used to develop the design requirements for estimating total ionizing radiation dose, displacement damage, and single event effects for Constellation hardware. We first describe the rationale using the spectra chosen to establish the total dose and single event design environmental specifications for Constellation systems. We then compare variability of the space environment to the spectral design models to evaluate their applicability as conservative design environments and potential vulnerabilities to extreme space weather events

Coffey, Victoria N.↗

Microwave Propagation Attenuation due to Earth's Atmosphere and Weather at SHF Band

In this study we have estimated radio wave propagation losses at super high frequency (SHF) band by applying available propagation models into several Air Force benchmark scenarios. The study shows that dominantly additional losses over the free space loss are atmospheric absorption, clouds, fog, and precipitation, as well as scintillation /multipath at low elevation angles. The free space loss equation has been modified to include all atmospheric attenuation and fading effects that cannot be neglected over the range of frequency of interest. Terrain profiles along all directions of interest within the coastal areas and inland areas for four benchmark cases have been analyzed in detail. We find that while the atmospheric gaseous absorption plays a significant role under a clear weather, heavy rainfalls can cause several tens of dB loss for a 100- km path through the rain. At very low elevation angles (< 5 deg), atmospheric scintillation/multipath fading becomes a very important factor. There are significant differences in the feature of anomalous mode (ducting) propagation between the east and the west coastal receiving stations.

atmospheric absorption↗

In-Situ and Experimental Evidence for Acidic Weathering of Rocks and Soils on Mars

Experimental data for alteration of synthetic Martian basalts at pH=0-1 indicate that chemical fractionations at low pH are vastly different from those observed during terrestrial weathering. Rock analyses from Gusev crater are well described by the relationships apparent from low pH experimental alteration data. A model for rock surface alteration is developed which indicates that a leached alteration zone is present on rock surfaces at Gusev. This zone is not chemically fractionated to a large degree from the underlying rock interior, indicating that the rock surface alteration process has occurred at low fluid-to-rock ratio. The geochemistry of natural rock surfaces analyzed by APXS is consistent with a mixture between adhering soil/dust and the leached alteration zone. The chemistry of rock surfaces analyzed after brushing with the RAT is largely representative of the leached alteration zone. The chemistry of rock surfaces analyzed after grinding with the RAT is largely representative of the interior of the rock, relatively unaffected by the alteration process occurring at the rock surface. Elemental measurements from the Spirit, Opportunity, Pathfinder and Viking 1 landing sites indicate that soil chemistry from widely separated locations is consistent with the low-pH, low fluid to rock ratio alteration relationships developed for Gusev rocks. Soils are affected principally by mobility of FeO and MgO, consistent with alteration of olivine-bearing basalt and subsequent precipitation of FeO and MgO bearing secondary minerals as the primary control on soil geochemistry.

Hurowitz, J. A.↗

Transport of Aerosols: Regional and Global Implications for Climate, Weather, and Air Quality

Long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols can have a significant impact on global climate, regional weather, and local air quality. In this study, we use a global model GOCART together with satellite data and ground-based measurements to assess the emission and transport of pollution, dust, biomass burning, and volcanic aerosols and their implications. In particular, we will show the impact of emissions and long-range transport of aerosols from major pollution and dust source regions to (1) the surface air quality, (2) the atmospheric heating rates, and (3) surface radiation change near the source and downwind regions.

Chin, Mian↗

ISS Charging Hazards and Low Earth Orbit Space Weather Effects

Current collection by high voltage solar arrays on the International Space Station (ISS) drives the vehicle to negative floating potentials in the low Earth orbit daytime plasma environment. Pre-flight predictions of ISS floating potentials Phi greater than |-100 V| suggested a risk for degradation of dielectric thermal control coatings on surfaces in the U.S. sector due to arcing and an electrical shock hazard to astronauts during extravehicular activity (EVA). However, hazard studies conducted by the ISS program have demonstrated that the thermal control material degradation risk is effectively mitigated during the lifetime of the ISS vehicle by a sufficiently large ion collection area present on the vehicle to balance current collection by the solar arrays. To date, crew risk during EVA has been mitigated by operating one of two plasma contactors during EVA to control the vehicle potential within Phi less than or equal to |-40 V| with a backup process requiring reorientation of the solar arrays into a configuration which places the current collection surfaces into wake. This operation minimizes current collection by the solar arrays should the plasma contactors fail. This paper presents an analysis of F-region electron density and temperature variations at low and midlatitudes generated by space weather events to determine what range of conditions represent charging threats to ISS. We first use historical ionospheric plasma measurements from spacecraft operating at altitudes relevant to the 51.6 degree inclination ISS orbit to provide an extensive database of F-region plasma conditions over a variety of solar cycle conditions. Then, the statistical results from the historical data are compared to more recent in-situ measurements from the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) operating on ISS in a campaign mode since its installation in August, 2006.

Minow, Joseph↗

Monitoring and Forecasting Space Weather in Geospace Environment

For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

Lyatsky, Wladislaw↗

Sensitivity of Passive Microwave Snow Depth Retrievals to Weather Effects and Snow Evolution

Snow fall and snow accumulation are key climate parameters due to the snow's high albedo, its thermal insulation, and its importance to the global water cycle. Satellite passive microwave radiometers currently provide the only means for the retrieval of snow depth and/or snow water equivalent (SWE) over land as well as over sea ice from space. All algorithms make use of the frequency-dependent amount of scattering of snow over a high-emissivity surface. Specifically, the difference between 37- and 19-GHz brightness temperatures is used to determine the depth of the snow or the SWE. With the availability of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System Aqua satellite (launched in May 2002), a wider range of frequencies can be utilized. In this study we investigate, using model simulations, how snow depth retrievals are affected by the evolution of the physical properties of the snow (mainly grain size growth and densification), how they are affected by variations in atmospheric conditions and, finally, how the additional channels may help to reduce errors in passive microwave snow retrievals. The sensitivity of snow depth retrievals to atmospheric water vapor is confirmed through the comparison with precipitable water retrievals from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B). The results suggest that a combination of the 10-, 19-, 37-, and 89-GHz channels may significantly improve retrieval accuracy. Additionally, the development of a multisensor algorithm utilizing AMSR-E and AMSU-B data may help to obtain weather-corrected snow retrievals.

Markus, Thorsten↗

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and its Contributions to Space Weather Research, the Flare Energy Budget, and Instrument Design

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the FISM model, and also how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM. Some current studies will then be presented that use FISM estimations of the solar VUV irradiance to quantify the contributions of the increased irradiance from flares to Earth's increased thermospheric and ionospheric densites. Initial results will also be presented from a study looking at the electron density increases in the Martian atmosphere during a solar flare. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget for both the impulsive and gradual phases of solar flares. Lastly, an example of how FISM can be used to simplify the design of future solar VUV irradiance instruments will be discussed, using the future NOAA GOES-R Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sensors (EXIS) space weather instrument.

Chamberlin, Phillip↗

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

Space Radiation Protection, Space Weather, and Exploration

Management of crew exposure to radiation is a major concern for manned spaceflight -- and will be even more important for the modern concept of longer-duration exploration. The inherent protection afforded to astronauts by the magnetic field of the Earth in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) makes operations on the space shuttle or space station very different from operations during an exploration mission. In order to experience significant radiation-derived Loss of Mission (LOM) or Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for LEO operations, one is almost driven to dictate extreme duration or to dictate an extreme sequence of solar activity. Outside of the geo-magnetosphere, however, this scenario changes dramatically. Exposures to the same event on the ISS and on the surface of the Moon may differ by multiple orders of magnitude. This change in magnitude, coupled with the logistical constraints present in implementing any practical operational mitigation make situational awareness with regard to space weather a limiting factor for our ability to conduct exploration operations. With these differences in risk to crew, vehicle and mission in mind, we present the status of the efforts currently underway as the required development to enable exploration operations. The changes in the operating environment as crewed operations begin to stretch away from the Earth are changing the way we think about the lines between "research" and "operations". The real, practical work to enable a permanent human presence away from Earth has already begun.

Zapp, Neal↗

Applications of a Forward-Looking Interferometer for the On-board Detection of Aviation Weather Hazards

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is a new instrument concept for obtaining measurements of potential weather hazards to alert flight crews. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared (IR) Fourier Transform Spectrometry (FTS) technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing, and which have also been applied to the detection of aerosols and gases for other purposes. It is being evaluated for multiple hazards including clear air turbulence (CAT), volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing, during all phases of flight. Previous sensitivity and characterization studies addressed the phenomenology that supports detection and mitigation by the FLI. Techniques for determining the range, and hence warning time, were demonstrated for several of the hazards, and a table of research instrument parameters was developed for investigating all of the hazards discussed above. This work supports the feasibility of detecting multiple hazards with an FLI multi-hazard airborne sensor, and for producing enhanced IR images in reduced visibility conditions; however, further research must be performed to develop a means to estimate the intensities of the hazards posed to an aircraft and to develop robust algorithms to relate sensor measurables to hazard levels. In addition, validation tests need to be performed with a prototype system.

West, Leanne↗

Radiation Effects on Emerging Technologies: Implications of Space Weather Risk Management

As NASA and its space partners endeavor to develop a network of satellites capable of supporting humankind's needs for advanced space weather prediction and understanding, one of the key challenges is to design a space system to operate in the natural space radiation environment In this paper, we present a description of the natural space radiation environment, the effects of interest to electronic or photonic systems, and a sample of emerging technologies and their specific issues. We conclude with a discussion of operations in the space radiation hazard and considerations for risk management.

LaBel, Kenneth A.↗

Sensitivity of Short-Term Weather Forecasts to Assimilated AIRS Data: Implications for NPOESS Applications

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is acting as a heritage and risk reduction instrument for the Cross-track lnfrared Sounder (CrIS) to be flown aboard the NPP and NPOESS satellites. The hyperspectral nature of AIRS and CrIS provides high-quality soundings that, along with their asynoptic observation time over North America, make them attractive sources to fill the spatial and temporal data voids in upper air temperature and moisture measurements for use in data assimilation and numerical weather prediction. Observations from AlRS can be assimilated either as direct radiances or retrieved thermodynamic profiles, and the Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has used both data types to improve short-term (0-48h), regional forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to share SPORT'S experiences using AlRS radiances and retrieved profiles in regional data assimilation activities by showing that proper handling of issues-including cloud contamination and land emissivity characterization-are necessary to produce optimal analyses and forecasts.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Thermal Performance of Aged and Weathered Spray-On Foam Insulation (SOFI) Materials Under Cryogenic Vacuum Conditions (Cryostat-4)

The NASA Cryogenics Test Laboratory at Kennedy Space Center conducted long-term testing of SOFI materials under actual-use cryogenic conditions with Cryostat-4. The materials included in the testing were NCFI 24-124 (acreage foam), BX-265 (close-out foam, including intertank flange and bipod areas), and a potential alternate material, NCFI 27-68, (acreage foam with the flame retardant removed). Specimens of these materials were placed at two locations: a site that simulated aging (the Vehicle Assembly Building [VAB]) and a site that simulated weathering (the Atmospheric Exposure Test Site [beach site]). After aging/weathering intervals of 3, 6, and 12 months, the samples were retrieved and tested for their thermal performance under cryogenic vacuum conditions with test apparatus Cryostat-4.

Source record↗

Space Weather

This slide presentation reviews the hazards and effects of space weather on earth and in space to humans and manmade systems.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

McCarty, Will↗