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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Brightening in Eastern and Central China Since the Implementation of the Clean Air Action in 2013: Causes and Implications

Surface brightening has been observed in China since 2005. However, it remains unclear whether the brightening has accelerated recently in response to the strictest ever air pollution control policies since 2013. By combining intensive surface and satellite observations, we find an unprecedented rapid increasing trend in surface solar radiation (SSR) of 0.70–1.16 W m-2 yr-1 over the eastern and central China for 2014–2019. Using a novel method to identify the relative contributions of aerosol and cloud radiative effects to the SSR trends, we find that the strongly declining aerosol radiative effect due to the strict air pollution controls is the main cause of the upward SSR trends; cloud variations should not be the main reason. Distinction exists in seasonal trends of SSR, with decreasing trends in winter and increasing trends in other seasons. Air pollution controls play an important role in regulating SSR, which has valuable implications for photovoltaic power generation.

Shi, Hongrong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Widespread Deceleration of Global Surface Urban Heat Islands Unveiled by Satellites

Tracking the temporal dynamics of urban heat island (UHI) is critical for urban heat adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, whether UHI trends have shifted recently and their underlying drivers remain unknown. Here we investigate the variabilities in surface UHI trends and their associated determinants in 2,104 cities worldwide from 2000 to 2022. Our findings reveal that approximately half of the world's cities have experienced notable shifts in surface UHI trends, predominantly characterized by UHI deceleration. These shifts can be primarily attributed to alterations in vegetation trends during the day and to modifications in surface albedo and local warming trends at night. Our study challenges the conventional linear models commonly employed to estimate surface UHI trends, suggesting potential biases in such estimates. Our findings underscore the need for nuanced policies to curtail UHI growth by considering changes in urban underlying surfaces and background climate, particularly from a nonlinear perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guiding the design of oxidation-resistant Fe-based single atom alloy catalysts with insights from configurational space

The high activity and selectivity of Fe-based heterogeneous catalysts toward a variety of reactions that require the breaking of strong bonds are offset in large part by their considerable instability with respect to oxidative deactivation. While it has been shown that the stability of Fe catalysts is considerably enhanced by alloying them with precious metals (even at the single-atom limit), rational design criteria for choosing such secondary metals are still missing. Since oxidative deactivation occurs due to the strong binding of oxygen to Fe and reduction by adsorbed hydrogen mitigates the deactivation, we propose here to use the binding affinity of oxygen and hydrogen adatoms as the basis for rational design. As it would also be beneficial to use cheaper secondary metals, we have scanned over a large subset of 3d–5d mid-to late transition metal single atoms and computationally determined their effect on the oxygen and hydrogen adlayer binding as a function of chemical potential and adsorbate coverage. We further determine the underlying chemical origins that are responsible for these effects and connect them to experimentally tunable quantities. Our results reveal a reliable periodic trend wherein oxygen binding is weakened greatest as one moves right and down the periodic table. Hydrogen binding shows the same trend only at high (but relevant) coverages and otherwise tends to have its binding slightly increased in all systems. Trends with secondary metal coverage are also uncovered and connected to experimentally tunable parameters.

Hensley, Alyssa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using host galaxy spectroscopy to explore systematics in the standardization of Type Ia supernovae

We use stacked spectra of the host galaxies of photometrically identified Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to search for correlations between Hubble diagram residuals and the spectral properties of the host galaxies. Utilizing full spectrum fitting techniques on stacked spectra binned by Hubble residual, we find no evidence for trends between Hubble residuals and properties of the host galaxies that rely on spectral absorption features (<1.3σ), such as stellar population age, metallicity, and mass-to-light ratio. However, we find significant trends between the Hubble residuals and the strengths of [O ii] (4.4σ) and the Balmer emission lines (3σ). These trends are weaker than the well-known trend between Hubble residuals and host galaxy stellar mass (7.2σ) that is derived from broad-band photometry. After light-curve corrections, we see fainter SNe Ia residing in galaxies with larger line strengths. We also find a trend (3σ) between Hubble residual and the Balmer decrement (a measure of reddening by dust) using H β and H γ. The trend, quantified by correlation coefficients, is slightly more significant in the redder SNe Ia, suggesting that the bluer SNe Ia are relatively unaffected by dust in the interstellar medium of the host and that dust contributes to current Hubble diagram scatter impacting the measurement of cosmological parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The relation between quasars’ optical spectra and variability

Abstract Brightness variation is an essential feature of quasars, but its mechanism and relationship to other physical quantities are not understood well. We aimed to find the relationship between the optical variability and spectral features to reveal the regularity behind the random variation. It is known that a quasar’s Fe ii/Hβ flux ratio and equivalent width of [O iii]5007 are negatively correlated; this is called Eigenvector 1. In this work, we visualized the relationship between the position on this Eigenvector 1 (EV1) plane and how the brightness of the quasars had changed after ∼10 yr. We conducted three analyses, using a different quasar sample in each. The first analysis showed the relation between the quasars’ distributions on the EV1 plane and how much they had changed brightness, using 13438 Sloan Digital Sky Survey quasars. This result shows how brightness changes later are clearly related to the position on the EV1 plane. In the second analysis, we plotted the sources reported as “changing-look quasars” (or “changing-state quasars”) on the EV1 plane. This result shows that the position on the EV1 plane corresponds to the activity level of each source, and the bright or dim states of them are distributed on the opposite sides divided by the typical quasar distribution. In the third analysis, we examined the transition vectors on the EV1 plane using sources with multiple-epoch spectra. This result shows that the brightening and dimming sources move on a similar path and they reach a position corresponding to the opposite activity level. We also found this trend is opposite to the empirical rule that $R_{\rm {Fe\, \small {II}}}$ positively correlated with the Eddington ratio, which has been proposed based on the trends of a large number of quasars. From all these analyses, it is indicated that quasars tend to oscillate between both sides of the distribution ridge on the EV1 plane; each of them corresponds to a dim state and a bright state. This trend in optical variation suggests that significant brightness changes, such as changing-look quasars, are expected to repeat.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gasoline Engine and Fuels Offering Reduced Fuel Consumption and Emissions: Vehicle Modeling Final Report

The Gasoline Engine and Fuels Offering Reduced Fuel Consumption and Emissions (GEFORCE) project was proposed in response to the U.S. Department of Energy’s Funding Opportunity Announcement 0991 by a team made up of the members of the Coordinating Research Council (CRC) and the research staff at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL.) The project focused on investigating the potential benefits that might be attained through synergistic use of specific engine technology together with fuels formulated to represent potential directions that high-octane fuels of the future might progress. A stated objective in the DOE FOA was to demonstrate a 25% reduction in petroleum consumption through optimization of the engine technologies together with a suitable fuel. An advanced engine was constructed and used with a matrix of research fuels to investigate potential avenues for efficiency improvement. The engine incorporated technologies expected to become mainstream for boosted engines in the next 10 to 20 years. These included increased compression ratio, a two-stage turbocharger, and cooled external exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). The fuel matrix was designed to investigate impacts from research octane number (RON), volumetric ethanol content, and the final boiling point of the fuel. The engine calibration was optimized for each fuel individually and data collected to enable vehicle system modelling that projected energy consumption, fuel economy, tailpipe CO₂ emissions, and impact on petroleum consumption for an industry-average mid-size sedan. The engine calibration and data collection were carried out at IAV in Michigan and is the subject of a separate report. IAV provided the engine data to Oak Ridge National Laboratory to support the vehicle modelling portion of the project. The vehicle modelling results show the following trends: Ethanol content does have a consistently strong influence on the fuel economy results for all cycles and all fuels. Among the fuels of a nominal RON level, increasing ethanol content consistently lowers fuel economy, with the 30% ethanol fuels always providing the lowest fuel economy for a given RON level. However, in some cases the energy consumption improvement allows the 30% ethanol fuels to match the fuel economy of the ethanol-free fuel P. These observations underscore the importance of both engine efficiency and fuel volumetric energy content on vehicle fuel economy.; There was no consistent trend in the projected energy consumption results for differences in fuel T90 for all fuels and cycles. Fuel economy projections did show a consistent trend, with the higher T90 fuel providing slightly greater fuel economy when compared to the low T90 fuel of the same ethanol content. The observed trends were consistent with differences in the heating value of the fuels.; The 102-RON fuels provided reduced energy consumption and greater fuel economy for the advanced engine on all drive cycles. The engine compression ratio of 11.5 was higher than would typically be used in a turbocharged engine when 92-RON fuel use is expected. Hence, the engine experiences more efficiency degradation from knock avoidance when using the 92-RON fuels. This degradation causes the fuel economy results for the 92-RON fuels to be lower than those for the 102-RON fuels.; Fuels E and F (92-RON, 30% ethanol) are projected to achieve 10% or greater reduction in petroleum consumption, with fuels K (102-RON, 30% ethanol) and O (97 RON, 30% ethanol) achieving greater than a 20% reduction. Fuel L (102-RON, 30% ethanol) achieves greater than 25% reduction, meeting the petroleum reduction target of the project. All of the fuels that achieve 10% or greater reduction in petroleum consumption are 30% ethanol blends.; Increasing final boiling point increased fuel economy at fixed ethanol content when the 102-RON fuels were used. This trend is a result of differences in the volumetric energy content of the fuels and the projected energy consumption values for the fuels. In the case of the 102-RON fuels, increasing final boiling point also resulted in an increase in the energy content of the fuel. There was not a consistent trend between the energy content and final boiling point for the 92-RON fuels at fixed ethanol content.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m −2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m −2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m −2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m −2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires.

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan (ORCID:0000000268989535)↗
NASA NTRS1973

Martian lineaments from Mariner 6 and 7 photographs

Mariner 6 and 7 photographs were used to investigate the nature and importance of linear surface trends on Mars. Cross correlations of frequency-azimuth distributions of linear trends from different Mariner frames indicate that lineations not recognized as topographic features have a component of pseudoforms, probably introduced during digital reconstruction of the pictures. Similar statistical tests may aid in the analysis of surface trends from future satellites and space probes. The most reliable data were separated into photometrically defined provinces. Meridiani Sinus and Margaritifer Sinus display five major trends in common, which are interpreted as extensions of crustal weaknesses related to the enormous equatorial canyon revealed in Mariner 6 and 9 pictures. Alignments of crater wall segments generally match these trends and suggest structural control of crater plan. Crater chains, however, do not match these trends and are interpreted as secondary impacts. Rose diagrams of lineations in Deucalionis Regio exhibit much more complexity and are believed to reflect a better preserved or more complex geologic history.

Schultz, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Investigation of lineaments on Skylab and ERTS images of Peninsular Ranges, Southwestern California

The author has identified the following significant results. Northwest trending faults such as the Elsinore and San Jacinto are prominently displayed on Skylab and ERTS images of the Peninsular Ranges, southern California. Northeast, north-south, and west-north-west trending lineaments and faults are also apparent on satellite imagery. Several of the lineaments represent previously unmapped faults. Other lineaments are due to erosion along foliation directions and sharp bends in basement rock contacts rather than faulting. The northeast trending Thing Valley fault appears to be offset by the south branch of the Elsinore fault near Agua Caliente Hot Springs. Larger horizontal displacement along the Elsinore fault further northwest may be distributed along several faults which branch from the Elsinore fault in the Peninsular Ranges. The northeast and west-northwest trending faults are truncated by the major northwest trending faults and appear to be restricted to basement terrane. Limited data on displacement direction suggests that the northeast and west-northwest trending faults formed in response to an earlier period of east-northeast, west-southwest crustal shortening. Such a stress system is consistent with the plate tectonic model of a subduction zone parallel to the continental margin suggested in the late Mesozoic and early Tertiary.

Merifield, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

Brune, William H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Wrinkle ridges on Venusian plains: Indicators of shallow crustal stress orientations at local and regional scales

The plains regions of Venus exhibit a complex array of structural features, including deformation belts of various types, wrinkle ridges, grabens, and enigmatic radar-bright linears. Probably the most pervasive of these structures are the wrinkle ridges, which appear to be morphologically identical to their counterparts on the Moon and Mars. Almost all workers agree that wrinkle ridges result from horizontal compressive stresses in the crust; they either are explained as flexural fold structures, or alternatively as scarps or folds related to reverse faults. Wrinkle ridges generally are narrow, have small amplitudes, and commonly are closely spaced as well, characteristics that imply a shallow crustal origin. If wrinkle ridges are due to horizontally directed compressive stresses in the shallow crust, as generally has been inferred, then the trends of these features provide a means to map both local and regional orientations of principal stresses in the uppermost part of the venusian crust: maximum compressive stress is normal to the ridges, minimum compressive stress is normal to the topographic surface, and thus the wrinkle ridge trends trace the orientation of the intermediate principal stress. Because there are few plains areas on Venus totally devoid of wrinkle ridges, it should be possible to establish a number of interesting relationships on a near-global scale by mapping the trends of wrinkle ridges wherever they occur. The present study is addressing three questions: (1) Do the trends of wrinkle ridges define domains that are large relative to the sizes of individual plains regions? If so, can these domains be related to large-scale topographic or geologic features? (2) Are regional trends of wrinkle ridges affected by local features such as coronae? If so, is it possible to determine the relative ages of the far-field and local stresses from detailed study of trend inheritance or superposition relationships? (3) What is the relationship between wrinkle ridges and the larger ridges that make up ridge belts?

Mcgill, George E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Structural mapping of Maxwell Montes

Four sets of structures were mapped in the western and southern portions of Maxwell Montes. An early north-trending set of penetrative lineaments is cut by dominant, spaced ridges and paired valleys that trend northwest. To the south the ridges and valleys splay and graben form in the valleys. The spaced ridges and graben are cut by northeast-trending graben. The northwest-trending graben formed synchronously with or slightly later than the spaced ridges. Formation of the northeast-trending graben may have overlapped with that of the northwest-trending graben, but occurred in a spatially distinct area (regions of 2 deg slope). Graben formation, with northwest-southeast extension, may be related to gravity-sliding. Individually and collectively these structures are too small to support the immense topography of Maxwell, and are interpreted as parasitic features above a larger mass that supports the mountain belt.

Keep, Myra↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Origin of Eucrites: An Experimental Perspective

The origin of eucrites has been the subject of debate. At issue is whether high-Mg# eucrites such as Sioux County are primitive or evolved liquids. We believe that the problem of the origin of eucrites is essentially solved. Problems associated with the petrogenesis of other achondrite groups remain, but the eucrites, taken as a whole, seem to present a clear and understandable story that we will present using experiments, analyses, and calculations. The two traditional eucrite groupings, the partial melting trend a.k.a. Stannem trend) and the fractional crystallization trend (a.k.a. Nuevo Laredo trend) have both been reproduced experimentally. The partial melting trend culminates in Sioux County. Sioux County is also an acceptable starting point for the fractional crystallization trend. The implication of these experimental results is that it is extremely difficult to relate the eucrites to diogenites, a group of pyroxene cumulates that conceivably could have crystallized from eucrite parent magmas.

Jones, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Observations and Model Simulations

This paper reviews observations of stratospheric temperatures that have been made over a period of several decades. Those observed temperatures have been used to assess variations and trends in stratospheric temperatures. A wide range of observation datasets have been used, comprising measurements by radiosonde (1940s to the present), satellite (1979 - present), lidar (1979 - present) and rocketsonde (periods varying with location, but most terminating by about the mid-1990s). In addition, trends have also been assessed from meteorological analyses, based on radiosonde and/or satellite data, and products based on assimilating observations into a general circulation model. Radiosonde and satellite data indicate a cooling trend of the annual-mean lower stratosphere since about 1980. Over the period 1979-1994, the trend is 0.6K/decade. For the period prior to 1980, the radiosonde data exhibit a substantially weaker long-term cooling trend. In the northern hemisphere, the cooling trend is about 0.75K/decade in the lower stratosphere, with a reduction in the cooling in mid-stratosphere (near 35 km), and increased cooling in the upper stratosphere (approximately 2 K per decade at 50 km). Model simulations indicate that the depletion of lower stratospheric ozone is the dominant factor in the observed lower stratospheric cooling. In the middle and upper stratosphere both the well-mixed greenhouse gases (such as CO) and ozone changes contribute in an important manner to the cooling.

Ramaswamy, V.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Magnitude and Variability of Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-Year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-Year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 1999 the northern mid-latitudes appear to be drying, the southern mid-latitudes have gotten wetter, and there is a mixed signal in the tropics. The relation between this field of trends and the relation to the frequency of El Nino events during this time period is explored. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. These El Nino minus La Nina composites of normalized precipitation show the usual positive, or wet, anomaly over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean with the negative, or dry, anomaly over the maritime continent along with an additional negative anomaly over Brazil and the Atlantic Ocean extending into Africa and a positive anomaly over the Horn of Africa and the western Indian Ocean. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern US and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. Further to the west a negative anomaly extends southeastward again from the Maritime Continent across the South Pacific and through the Drake Passage. The N.H. counterpart crosses the North Pacific and southern Canada. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) TRMM observations are compared with the similar period of GPCP analyses with very good agreement in terms of pattern and generally good agreement with regard to magnitude. However, there still are differences among the individual TRMM products using passive and active microwave techniques and these need to be resolved before longer-term products such as the GPCP analyses can be validated.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observations of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observation of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The data sets are also explored to monitor extremes in precipitation related to localized and regional flooding and the occurrence of droughts.

Adler, Robert F.↗