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[Global Atmospheric Chemistry/Transport Modeling and Data-Analysis]

This grant supported a global atmospheric chemistry/transport modeling and data- analysis project devoted to: (a) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for trace gases; (b) utilization of these inverse methods which use either the Model for Atmospheric Chemistry and Transport (MATCH) which is based on analyzed observed winds or back- trajectories calculated from these same winds for determining regional and global source and sink strengths for long-lived trace gases important in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect; (c) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple "titrating" gases; and (d) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3D models. Important ultimate goals included determination of regional source strengths of important biogenic/anthropogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-on agreements, and hydrohalocarbons now used as alternatives to the above restricted halocarbons.

Prinn, Ronald G.↗

Fulgurites: A Look at Transient High Temperature Processes in Silicates

Fulgurites result from transient high temperature processes, and some have extremely reduced phases. We performed both modeling and a microprobe analysis of natural fulgurites. The modeling suggests vapor phase C causes reduction of silicate liquid. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Wasserman, A. A.↗

Displacements of Metallic Thermal Protection System Panels During Reentry

Bowing of metallic thermal protection systems for reentry of a previously proposed single-stage-to-orbit reusable launch vehicle was studied. The outer layer of current metallic thermal protection system concepts typically consists of a honeycomb panel made of a high temperature nickel alloy. During portions of reentry when the thermal protection system is exposed to rapidly varying heating rates, a significant temperature gradient develops across the honeycomb panel thickness, resulting in bowing of the honeycomb panel. The deformations of the honeycomb panel increase the roughness of the outer mold line of the vehicle, which could possibly result in premature boundary layer transition, resulting in significantly higher downstream heating rates. The aerothermal loads and parameters for three locations on the centerline of the windward side of this vehicle were calculated using an engineering code. The transient temperature distributions through a metallic thermal protection system were obtained using 1-D finite volume thermal analysis, and the resulting displacements of the thermal protection system were calculated. The maximum deflection of the thermal protection system throughout the reentry trajectory was 6.4 mm. The maximum ratio of deflection to boundary layer thickness was 0.032. Based on previously developed distributed roughness correlations, it was concluded that these defections will not result in tripping the hypersonic boundary layer.

Daryabeigi, Kamran↗

RXTE Observations of the 1A 1118-61 in an Outburst, and the Discovery of a Cyclotron Line

We present the analysis of RXTE monitoring data obtained during the January 2009 outburst of the hard X-ray transient IA 1118-61. Using these observations the broadband (3.5-120 keV) spectrum of the source was measured for the first time ever. We have found that the broadband continuum spectrum of the source is similar to other accreting pulsars and is well described by several conventionally used phenomenological models. We have discovered that regardless of the applied continuum model, a prominent broad absorption feature at approx. 55 keV is observed. We interpret this feature as a Cyclotron Resonance Scattering Feature (CRSF). The observed CRSF energy is one of the highest known and corresponds to a magnetic field of B approx. 4.8 x 10(exp 12) G in the scattering region. Furthermore, our data suggests an iron emission line presence, which was not reported previously for lA 1118-61 as well. Timing properties of the source, including a strong spin-up, were found to be similar to those observed by CGRO/BATSE during the previous outburst, however the broadband capabilities of RXTE reveal a more complicated energy dependency of the pulse-profile.

Doroshenko, V.↗

Thermal Design and Analysis of the Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test Vehicle for the Low Density Supersonic Decelerator Project

The thermal design and analysis of the experimental Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT) vehicle is presented. The SFDT vehicle is currently being designed as a platform to help demonstrate key technologies for NASA's Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) project. The LDSD project is charged by NASA's Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) with the task of advancing the state of the art in Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems by developing and testing three new technologies required for landing heavier payloads on Mars. The enabling technologies under development consist of a large 33.5 meter diameter Supersonic Ringsail (SSRS) parachute and two different types of Supersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (SIAD) devices - a robotic class, SIAD-R, that inflates to a 6 meter diameter torus, and an exploration class, SIAD-E, that inflates to an 8 meter diameter isotensoid. As part of the technology development effort, the various elements of the new supersonic decelerator system must be tested in a Mars-like environment. This is currently planned to be accomplished by sending a series of SFDT vehicles into Earth's stratosphere. Each SFDT vehicle will be lifted to a stable float altitude by a large helium carrier balloon. Once at altitude, the SFDT vehicles will be released from their carrier balloon and spun up via spin motors to provide trajectory stability. An onboard third stage solid rocket motor will propel each test vehicle to supersonic flight in the upper atmosphere. After main engine burnout, each vehicle will be despun and testing of the deceleration system will begin: first an inflatable decelerator will be deployed around the aeroshell to increase the drag surface area, and then the large parachute will be deployed to continue the deceleration and return the vehicle back to the Earth's surface. The SFDT vehicle thermal system must passively protect the vehicle structure and its components from cold temperatures experienced during the ascent phase of the mission as well as from the extreme heat fluxes produced during the supersonic test phase by the main motor plume and aeroheating. The passive thermal design approach for the SFDT vehicle relies upon careful and complex bounding analysis of all three modes of heat transfer - conduction, convection, and radiation - coupled with a tightly managed transient power dissipation timeline for onboard electronics components throughout all mission phases.

thermal desktop↗

A Flexible Multibody Approach to Space Launch System Liftoff Pad Separation with Umbilical Disconnect

A flexible multibody dynamic framework is applied to the Space Launch System(SLS)liftoff Coupled Loads Analysis(CLA), enabling computational efficiencies and systematic inclusion of component nonlinearities. This work simulates the SLS liftoff transient pad separation event inclusive of umbilical disconnects and preload strain energy release (twang). For this system level nonlinear dynamic simulation, the flexible multibody framework provides a systematic approach for the addition of component specific algorithms to enforce the subject nonlinearities. As such, the complexities associated with the nonlinear CLA are greatly reduced, facilitating simplified bookkeeping as well as accelerating the execution of the nonlinear time-domain simulations.

Joel W Sills↗

ZTF Early Observations of Type Ia Supernovae. II. First Light, the Initial Rise, and Time to Reach Maximum Brightness

While it is clear that Type Ia supernovae (SNe) are the result of thermonuclear explosions in C/O white dwarfs (WDs), a great deal remains uncertain about the binary companion that facilitates the explosive disruption of the WD. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of a large, unique data set of 127 SNe Ia with exquisite coverage by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). High-cadence (six observations per night) ZTF observations allow us to measure the SN rise time and examine its initial evolution. We develop a Bayesian framework to model the early rise as a power law in time, which enables the inclusion of priors in our model. For a volume-limited subset of normal SNe Ia, we find that the mean power-law index is consistent with 2 in the r(ZTF)-band (a(r) = 2.01 ± 0.02), as expected in the expanding fireball model. There are, however, individual SNe that are clearly inconsistent with a(r) = 2. We estimate a mean rise time of 18.9 days (with a range extending from ∼15 to 22 days), though this is subject to the adopted prior. We identify an important, previously unknown, bias whereby the rise times for higher redshift SNe within a flux-limited survey are systematically underestimated. This effect can be partially alleviated if the power-law index is fixed to α = 2, in which case we estimate a mean rise time of 21.7 days (with a range from ∼18 to 23 days). The sample includes a handful of rare and peculiar SNe Ia. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of lessons learned from the ZTF sample that can eventually be applied to observations from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory.

A. A. Miller↗

A case study of magnetotail current sheet disruption and diversion

On June 1, 1985 the AMPTE/CCE spacecraft (at a geocentric distance of about 8.8 earth radii at the midnight neutral sheet region) observed a dispersionless energetic particle injection and an increase in magnetic field magnitude, which are features commonly attributed to disruption of the near-earth cross-tail current sheet during substorm expansion onsets. An analysis based on high time-resolution measurements from the magnetometer and the energetic particle detector indicates that the current sheet disruption region exhibited localized (less than 1 earth radius) and transient (less than 1 min) particle intensity enhancements, accompanied by complex magnetic field changes with occasional development of a southward magnetic field component. Similar features are seen in other current disruption/diversion events observed by the CCE. The present analysis suggests that the current disruption region is quite turbulent, similar to laboratory experiments on current sheet disruption, with signatures unlike those expected from an X-type neutral line configuration. No clear indication of periodicity in any magnetic field parameter is discernible for this current disruption event.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

Multiscale Thermal-hydraulic analysis of the MARVEL microreactor using a coupled SAM and SCM simulation. (PPTX)

This is .pptx document presenting a summary of the paper of the same name that has been submitted and accepted to NURETH-21: MARVEL is a natural-convection-cooled sodium-potassium microreactor that is anticipated to generate 85 kilowatts of thermal energy. It will operate within Idaho National Laboratory Transient Reactor Test Facility and is being developed by the DOE Microreactor Program. MARVEL will be used to test microreactor applications, evaluate systems for remote monitoring, and develop autonomous control technologies. A thermal-hydraulic computational model of this facility is a valuable tool to study important transients and calculate the safety limits of the micro-reactor design. For this purpose, the authors have chosen to use a multiscale coupled simulation: SCM for modeling the reactor core and SAM for the reactor's primary cooling system. SCM is MOOSE physics module for subchannel analysis, which was designed to model single-phase flows through liquid-metal cooled, wire-wrapped fuel pin sub-assemblies, ordered in a triangular lattice. The SCM code was modified to be able to model MARVEL?s unique geometry. SAM is a systems analysis module based on the MOOSE framework. It aims to provide fast-running, whole-plant transient analyses capability with improved-fidelity for various advanced reactor types. The coupling between the two SCM and SAM for MARVEL modeling is done implementing a domain over-lapping approach. The resulting coupled simulation can model transients such as reactor startup/shutdown and provide an intermediate fidelity picture of the temperature field and other variables, in the core. Results for the steady-state simulations are presented in the article as well as flow blockage transient.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Search for Hard X-Ray Emission from Aquila X-1: High Energy Emission from Gamma-ray Radio Star 2CG 135+1/LSI 61 305

Several investigations supported by these CCRO grant were completed or are close to completion. The study of EGRET data for the unidentified source 2CG 135+01 was very fruitful. We discovered transient gamma-ray emission by combining several data obtained since 1994 through 1997. It is the first time that time variable emission is established for this enigmatic source, and clearly an interpretation in terms of an isolated radio pulsar (Geminga-like) is disfavored now. Our preferred model is a Galactic source, probably an energetic pulsar (such as PSR129-63) in a binary system producing gamma-rays because of pulsar wind/mass outflow interaction. We also accumulated may data concerning the radio source LSI 61 303, the possible counterpart of 2CG 135+01. We show that a possible anti-correlation between radio and gamma-ray emission exists. This anticorrelation is evident only in the energy range above 100 MeV, as demonstrated by the lack of it obtained from OSSE data. If confirmed, this anti-correlation would prove to be very important for the interpretation of the hundreds of unidentified gamma-ray sources currently discovered by EGRET near the Galactic plane, and would point to a new class of sources in addition to AGNs and isolated pulsars. We also completed the analysis of several time variable gamma-ray sources near the Galactic plane, with the discussion of evidence for transient emission from 2EG J1813-12 and 2EG J1828+01. We completed several investigations regarding gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), including the study of the brightness distribution for different spectral/duration GRB sub-classes, an investigation of acceleration processes and their consequences for GRB afterglow emission [61, the application of the synchrotron shock model of GRBs to X-ray energies.

Tavani, Marco↗

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗

BatAnalysis - A Comprehensive Python Pipeline for Swift BAT Survey Analysis

The Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) is a coded aperture gamma-ray instrument with a large field of view that primarily operates in survey mode when it is not triggering on transient events. The survey data consists of eighty-channel detector plane histograms that accumulate photon counts over time periods of at least 5 minutes. These histograms are processed on the ground and are used to produce the survey dataset between 14 and 195 keV. Survey data comprises >90% of all BAT data by volume and allows for the tracking of long term light curves and spectral properties of cataloged and uncataloged hard X-ray sources. Until now, the survey dataset has not been used to its full potential due to the complexity associated with its analysis and the lack of easily usable pipelines. Here, we introduce the BatAnalysis python package , a wrapper for HEASoftpy, which provides a modern, open-source pipeline to process and analyze BAT survey data. BatAnalysis allows members of the community to use BAT survey data in more advanced analyses of astrophysical sources including pulsars, pulsar wind nebula, active galactic nuclei, and other known/unknown transient events that may be detected in the hard X-ray band. We outline the steps taken by the python code and exemplify its usefulness and accuracy by analyzing survey data from the Crab Pulsar, NGC 2992, and a previously uncataloged MAXI Transient. The BatAnalysis package allows for ∼ 18 years of BAT survey to be used in a systematic way to study a large variety of astrophysical sources.

Tyler Parsotan↗

The Kangaroo’s First Hop: The Early Fast Cooling Phase of EP250108a/SN 2025kg

Fast X-ray transients are a rare and poorly understood population of events. Previously difficult to detect in real time, the launch of the Einstein Probe with its Wide-field X-ray Telescope has led to a rapid expansionof the sample and allowed the exploration of these transients across the electromagnetic spectrum. EP250108a is a recently detected example linked to an optical counterpart, SN 2025kg, or “the kangaroo.” Together with a companion Letter we present our observing campaign and analysis of this event. In this letter, we focus on the early evolution of the optical counterpart over the first 6 days, including our measurement of the redshift of z = 0.17641. We compare to other supernovae and fast transients showing similar features, finding significant similarities with SN 2006aj and SN 2020bvc, and show that the source is well modelled by a rapidly expanding cooling blackbody. We show the observed X-ray and radio properties are consistent with a collapsar-powered jet that is low energy (≲10 51 erg) and/or fails to break out of the dense material surrounding it. While we examine the possibility that the optical emission emerges from the shock produced as the supernova ejecta expand into a dense shell of circumstellar material, due to our X-ray and radio inferences, we favour a model where it arises from a shocked cocoon resulting from a trapped jet. This makes SN 2025 one of the few examples of this currently observationally rare event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A time dependent difference theory for sound propagation in ducts with flow

A time dependent numerical solution of the linearized continuity and momentum equation is developed for sound propagation in a two-dimensional straight hard or soft wall duct with a sheared mean flow. The time dependent governing acoustic-difference equations and boundary conditions are developed along with a numerical determination of the maximum stable time increments. The analysis begins with a harmonic noise source radiating into a quiescent duct. This explicit iteration method then calculates stepwise in real time to obtain the transient as well as the 'steady' state solution of the acoustic field. Example calculations are presented for sound propagation in hard and soft wall ducts, with no flow and with plug flow. Although the problem with sheared flow has been formulated and programmed, sample calculations have not yet been examined. So far, the time dependent finite difference analysis has been found to be superior to the steady state finite difference and finite element techniques because of shorter solution times and the elimination of large matrix storage requirements.

Baumeister, K. J.↗

Geomagnetically Induced Current Field Test on Large Grid-Connected Power Transformers: Analysis, Model Development, and Simulations

Geomagnetic-induced current (GIC) flow in power grids can cause undesirable effects such as transformer overheating, harmonics, higher reactive power demand, etc. Many simulation models have been developed to study these effects, but real-world verification on modern transformer designs is rare. Here, this paper presents the first long-duration GIC field test in the U.S. performed on high-voltage, grid-connected transformers featuring winding clamps and tie rods instead of conventional tie bars. Field measurements were taken to evaluate GIC effects. These measurements also aided in developing and validating thermal and electromagnetic transient (EMT) models of the transformers. During the test, significant current and voltage distortions were observed along with considerable transformer reactive power losses. Analysis of the field measurements showed that the transformers’ hottest spot was at the inner windings, and their k-factors were close to factory test and software default values. Thermal simulations indicated that the transformers would not violate their thermal limits even for a GIC waveform that peaks at about 200 A/phase. EMT simulations revealed that increased transformer loading may reduce GIC-induced reactive power demand and harmonics in certain scenarios. The study also highlighted potential inaccuracies in using the k-factor method to calculate transformer reactive power losses.

EMTDC↗

An analysis of differential impact melt-crater scaling and implications for the terrestrial impact record

The volume of impact melt relative to that of the transient cavity is known to increase with the magnitude of the impact event. This paper investigates the influence of that phenomenon on the nature of terrestrial impact craters. A model of impact melting was used to estimate the volume of melt produced during the impact of chondritic projectiles into granite targets at velocities of 15, 25, and 50 km per sec. The results were compared with observed melt volumes at terrestrial craters, which were collated from the literature and paired with the transient-cavity diameters of their respective craters. Results show that the record on terrestrial craters is not inconsistent with the predictions of the model.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

Discrete Deterministic and Stochastic Petri Nets

Petri nets augmented with timing specifications gained a wide acceptance in the area of performance and reliability evaluation of complex systems exhibiting concurrency, synchronization, and conflicts. The state space of time-extended Petri nets is mapped onto its basic underlying stochastic process, which can be shown to be Markovian under the assumption of exponentially distributed firing times. The integration of exponentially and non-exponentially distributed timing is still one of the major problems for the analysis and was first attacked for continuous time Petri nets at the cost of structural or analytical restrictions. We propose a discrete deterministic and stochastic Petri net (DDSPN) formalism with no imposed structural or analytical restrictions where transitions can fire either in zero time or according to arbitrary firing times that can be represented as the time to absorption in a finite absorbing discrete time Markov chain (DTMC). Exponentially distributed firing times are then approximated arbitrarily well by geometric distributions. Deterministic firing times are a special case of the geometric distribution. The underlying stochastic process of a DDSPN is then also a DTMC, from which the transient and stationary solution can be obtained by standard techniques. A comprehensive algorithm and some state space reduction techniques for the analysis of DDSPNs are presented comprising the automatic detection of conflicts and confusions, which removes a major obstacle for the analysis of discrete time models.

MATHEMATICAL MODELS↗