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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Improving Simulated Soil Moisture Fields Through Assimilation of AMSR-E Soil Moisture Retrievals with an Ensemble Kalman Filter and a Mass Conservation Constraint

Model simulated soil moisture fields are often biased due to errors in input parameters and deficiencies in model physics. Satellite derived soil moisture estimates, if retrieved appropriately, represent the spatial mean of soil moisture in a footprint area, and can be used to reduce model bias (at locations near the surface) through data assimilation techniques. While assimilating the retrievals can reduce model bias, it can also destroy the mass balance enforced by the model governing equation because water is removed from or added to the soil by the assimilation algorithm. In addition, studies have shown that assimilation of surface observations can adversely impact soil moisture estimates in the lower soil layers due to imperfect model physics, even though the bias near the surface is decreased. In this study, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a mass conservation updating scheme was developed to assimilate the actual value of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals to improve the mean of simulated soil moisture fields by the Noah land surface model. Assimilation results using the conventional and the mass conservation updating scheme in the Little Washita watershed of Oklahoma showed that, while both updating schemes reduced the bias in the shallow root zone, the mass conservation scheme provided better estimates in the deeper profile. The mass conservation scheme also yielded physically consistent estimates of fluxes and maintained the water budget. Impacts of model physics on the assimilation results are discussed.

Li, Bailing↗

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inverting infrasound data for the seismoacoustic source time functions and surface spall at the Source Physics Experiments Phase II: Dry Alluvium Geology

This report presents the infrasound data recorded as part of the Source Physics Experiment - Phase 2, Dry Alluvium Geology. This experiment, also known colloquially as DAG, consisted of four underground chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We focus our analysis on only the fourth explosion (DAG-4) as we determined that this was the only event that produced clear source-generated infrasound energy as recorded by the DAG sensors. We analyze the data using two inversion methods. The first method is designed to estimate the point-source seismoacoustic source time functions, and the second inversion method is designed to estimate the first-order characteristics (e.g. horizontal dimensions and maximum amplitude) of the actual spall surface. For both analysis methods, we are able to fit the data reasonably well, with various assumptions of the source model. The estimated seismoacoustic source appears to be a combination of a buried, isotropic explosion with a maximum amplitude of ~2 x 10 9 Nm and a vertically oriented force, applied to the Earth's surface with a maximum amplitude of 4 x 10 7 N. We use the vertically oriented force to simulate surface spall. The estimated spall surface has an approximate radius of ~40 m with a maximum acceleration magnitude in the range of 0.8 to 1.5 m/s/s. These estimates are approximately similar to the measured surface acceleration at the site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An EOF Iteration Approach for Obtaining Homogeneous Radiative Fluxes from Satellites Observations

Conventional observations of climate parameters are sparse in space and/or in time and the representativeness of such information needs to be optimized. Observations from satellites provide improved spatial coverage than point observations however they pose new challenges for obtaining homogeneous coverage. Surface radiative fluxes, the forcing functions of the hydrologic cycle and biogeophysical processes, are now becoming available from global scale satellite observations. They are derived from independent satellite platforms and sensors that differ in temporal and spatial resolution and in the size of the footprint from which information is derived. Data gaps, degraded spatial resolution near boundaries of geostationary satellites, and different viewing geometries in areas of satellite overlap, could result in biased estimates of radiative fluxes. In this study, discussed will be issues related to the sources of inhomogeneity in surface radiative fluxes as derived from satellites; development of an approach to obtain homogeneous data sets; and application of the methodology to the widely used International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data that currently serve as a source of information for deriving estimates of surface and top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Introduced is an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) iteration scheme for homogenizing the fluxes. The scheme is evaluated in several ways including comparison of the inferred radiative fluxes against ground observations, both before and after the EOF approach is applied. On the average, the latter reduces the rms error by about 2-3 W/m2.

Zhang, Banglin↗

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wildfire aerosol deposition likely amplified a summertime Arctic phytoplankton bloom

Summertime wildfire activity is increasing in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the impact of long range transport and deposition of wildfire aerosols on biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic Ocean is unknown. Here, we use satellite-based ocean color data, atmospheric modeling and back trajectory analysis to investigate the transport and fate of aerosols emitted from Siberian wildfires in summer 2014 and their potential impact on phytoplankton dynamics in the Arctic Ocean. We detect large phytoplankton blooms near the North Pole (up to 82°N in the eastern Eurasian Basin). Our analysis indicates that these blooms were induced by the northward plume transport and deposition of nutrient-bearing wildfire aerosols. We estimate that these highly stratified surface waters received large amounts of wildfire-derived nitrogen, which alleviated nutrient stress in the phytoplankton community and triggered an unusually large bloom event. Our findings suggest that changes in wildfire activity may strongly influence summertime productivity in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of n > 1 neoclassical tearing modes on fast ions, plasma rotation, and the onset of disruptive tearing modes in DIII-D ITER baseline scenario

We present integrated TRANSP-kick analyses quantitatively characterizing how n > 1 magnetic islands redistribute fast ions (FIs) and modify momentum balance in low-torque DIII-D H-mode scenarios operated with the ITER normalized parameter set and shape (ITER baseline scenario, or IBS). In this plasma scenario, disruptive neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are most commonly seeded by nonlinear 3-wave coupling when the differential rotation between the q = 1 and q = 2 surfaces ($δf_{1, 2}$) approaches zero. Analysis of a DIII-D IBS database of shots unstable to the 2/1 NTM demonstrates that the flattening rotation profile is correlated with n > 1 NTM amplitude growth, with a strong drop in $δf_{1, 2}$ occurring when the radial magnetic perturbation amplitude at the rational surface ($δB$ r s ) is estimated to be about 20 G. The interpretive TRANSP-kick simulations show that the experimentally observed reduction in core rotation is due to the fast-ion kicks. Nonlinearity in momentum losses versus NTM amplitude is found to be correlated with overlap of FI island chains, occurring when $δB$ r s is about 35 G, in rough agreement with the experimental results. This agreement suggests the primary mechanism for the conductive momentum loss in the core is due to chaotic FI orbits and FI losses developing from overlapping resonant FI island chains.

ITER baseline scenario↗

Using ARM Data to Retrieve Entrainment Rates in Stratocumulus Cloud Systems (Final Report)

A stratocumulus-topped boundary layer (STBL) is a shallow convecting layer in which both the updraft and the downdraft branches of the convective circulation are saturated (cloudy) in the upper part of the boundary layer. The convective circulation is vigorous, yet the cloud-top entrainment velocity, $w_e$, is small and difficult to measure. Differences between currently used parameterizations of $w_e$ in GCMs can lead to STBLs that differ by as much as a factor of two in climatologically important properties such as liquid water path and boundary layer depth. We have developed a new method to retrieve entrainment rates in STBLs which uses vertical velocity retrievals from surface-based cloud radar, in conjunction with other surface-based measurements. These new estimates will allow a more comprehensive evaluation of parameterizations of entrainment rate for STBLs. The new method will also provide ground-based estimates of entrainment in STBLs over long time periods. We use retrievals of vertical velocity and liquid water content profiles to estimate the turbulent liquid water flux, which is then used in combination with observed cloud-top jumps of temperature, water vapor, and calculated radiative flux profiles to estimate the entrainment rate. We present results for three days for which observational data was not significantly contaminated by drizzle. The resulting average entrainment rates are 0.58 cm/s, 1.51 cm/s, and 0.31 cm/s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancements Of Interior Flux In Magnetic Bodies & Exterior Surface Fields On Conducting Objects Of Various Shapes

The magnetic flux induced in magnetic bodies of several shapes are examined. In addition the surface magnetic field intensity on the exterior surface of conducting objects is estimated since it is the driver for narrow slot aperture inductive ports of entry. In this report lower frequencies are the focus, but we also include the magnetic field intensity of a conducting cylinder near the first resonance and a reference to the high frequency limit.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The SDSS-Gaia View of the Color–Magnitude Relation for Blue Horizontal-branch Stars

We present an updated sample of blue horizontal-branch (BHB) stars selected from the photometric and spectroscopic data from Sloan Digital Sky Survey and its associated project Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration (SEGUE). With these data, we selected candidates for A-type stars in the color–color space and then a mixture modeling technique was implemented in order to distinguish between BHB and main-sequence/blue-straggler stars based on their surface gravity values (log g) estimated by the SEGUE Stellar Parameter Pipeline. Our robust approach allows us to attribute individual probabilities of each star truly being in the BHB stage. Hence, our method is advantageous in comparison to previous SEGUE BHB selections that adopted simple log g cuts. We also revisit the color–magnitude relation for these stars and propose two calibrations, based on updated distances for Galactic globular clusters, to estimate absolute magnitudes with (g – r) 0 and (u – r) 0 colors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

In-flight aeroacoustic environments on prospective space shuttle vehicles

The problem of in-flight aerodynamic noise has been studied by reliable estimates of full scale surface-pressure fluctuations from scale model tests in wind tunnels. Scaling relationships have been verified, and many details of the fluctuating pressure characteristics such as spatial correlation and convection velocities are understood. The effects of the wind tunnel environmental turbulence and noise have also been investigated sufficiently so that threshold levels of usable data are known.

Dods, J. B., Jr.↗

The last Balmer line and H gamma in model B stars

Profiles of the last few Balmer lines (H12-H27) and the full profiles of the H gamma line were computed for a grid of hydrogen line blanketed model atmospheres. The use of the last hydrogen line and the equivalent width of H gamma provide a quick means of estimating the effective temperature and surface gravity of B stars. Regression curves relating the quantum number of the last hydrogen line to the electron density in the model atmosphere are given. Futhermore, it is shown that the difference in the gravity determination deduced from H gamma equivalent widths using the Edmonds-Schuter-Wells formalism and the Griem wing formulae is, at worst, 0.18 in the common logarithm.

Fischel, D.↗

Advances in water resources monitoring from space

Nimbus-5 observations indicate that over the oceans the total precipitable water in a column of atmosphere can be estimated to within + or - 10%, the liquid water content of clouds can be estimated to within + or - 25%, areas of precipitation can be delineated, and broad estimates of the precipitation rate obtained. ERTS-1 observations permit the measurement of snow covered area to within a few percent of drainage basin area and snowline altitudes can be estimated to within 60 meters. Surface water areas as small as 1 hectare can be inventoried over large regions such as playa lakes region of West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. In addition, changes in land use on water-sheds occurring as a result of forest fires, urban development, clear cutting, or strip mining can be rapidly obtained.

Salomonson, V. V.↗

Skylab electronic technological advancements

The present work describes three electronic devices designed for use in the Skylab airlock module: the teleprinter system, the quartz crystal microbalance contamination monitor (QCM), and the speaker. Design considerations, operation, characteristics, and system development are described for these systems, with accompanying diagrams, graphs, and photographs. The teleprinter is a thermal dot printer used to produce hard copy messages by electrically heating print elements in contact with heat-sensitive paper. The QCM was designed to estimate contamination buildup on optical surfaces of the earth resources experiment package. A vibrating quartz crystal is used as a microbalance relating deposited mass to shifts in the crystal's resonant frequency. Audio devices provide communication between crew members and between crew and STDN, and also provide audible alarms, via the caution and warning system, of out-of-limit-conditions.

Hornback, G. L.↗

The effect of volcanic activity on climate

Radiative transfer calculations of the global energy balance were performed to estimate the change in mean surface temperature that results from the addition of volcanic aerosols to the stratosphere. Results of the calculations are consistent with stratospheric warming observed in the last few months following the eruption of Mt. Agung and the average surface temperature decrease found for the two year period following major volcanic explosions.

Pollack, J. B.↗