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Our work focuses upon development of techniques for choosing among a set of alternatives in the presence of incomplete information and varying costs of acquiring information.
The feasibility of the RF gauging mode, counting technique was demonstrated for gauging liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen under all attitude conditions. With LH2, it was also demonstrated under dynamic fluid conditions, in which the fluid assumes ever changing positions within the tank, that the RF gauging technique on the average provides a very good indication of mass. It is significant that the distribution of the mode count data at each fill level during dynamic LH2 and LOX orientation testing does approach a statistical normal distribution. Multiple space-diversity probes provide better coupling to the resonant modes than utilization of a single probe element. The variable sweep rate generator technique provides a more uniform mode versus time distribution for processing.
Slurry casting method dominates the electrode manufacture of lithium-ion batteries. The entire procedure is similar to the newspaper printing that includes premixing of cast materials into solvents homogeneously, and continuously transferring and drying the slurry mixture onto the current collector. As a market approaching US $80 billion by 2024, the optimization of manufacture process is crucial and attractive. However, the organic solvent remains irreplaceable in the wet method for making slurries, even though it is capital-intensive and toxic. In this paper, an advanced powder printing technique is demonstrated that is completely solvent-free and dry. Through removing the solvent and related procedures, this method is anticipated to statistically save 20% of the cost at a remarkably shortened production cycle (from hours to minutes). The dry printed electrodes outperform commercial slurry cast ones in 650 cycles (80% capacity retention in 500 cycles), and thick electrodes are successfully fabricated to increase the energy density. Furthermore, microscopy techniques are utilized to characterize the difference of electrode microstructure between dry and wet methods, and distinguish dry printing's advantages on controlling the microstructure. Finally, this study proves a practical fabrication method for lithium-ion electrodes with lowered cost and favorable performance, and allows more advanced electrode designs potentially.
Since the mid-1980s, airborne and ground measurements have been widely used to provide comprehensive characterization of atmospheric composition and processes. Field campaigns have generated a wealth of insitu data and have grown considerably over the years in terms of both the number of measured parameters and the data volume. This can largely be attributed to the rapid advances in instrument development and computing power. The users of field data may face a number of challenges spanning data access, understanding, and proper use in scientific analysis. This tutorial is designed to provide an introduction to using data sets, with a focus on airborne measurements, for atmospheric research. The first part of the tutorial provides an overview of airborne measurements and data discovery. This will be followed by a discussion on the understanding of airborne data files. An actual data file will be used to illustrate how data are reported, including the use of data flags to indicate missing data and limits of detection. Retrieving information from the file header will be discussed, which is essential to properly interpreting the data. Field measurements are typically reported as a function of sampling time, but different instruments often have different sampling intervals. To create a combined data set, the data merge process (interpolation of all data to a common time base) will be discussed in terms of the algorithm, data merge products available from airborne studies, and their application in research. Statistical treatment of missing data and data flagged for limit of detection will also be covered in this section. These basic data processing techniques are applicable to both airborne and ground-based observational data sets. Finally, the recently developed Toolsets for Airborne Data (TAD) will be introduced. TAD (tad.larc.nasa.gov) is an airborne data portal offering tools to create user defined merged data products with the capability to provide descriptive statistics and the option to treat measurement uncertainty.
To investigate the doses received by the hippocampus and normal brain tissue during a course of stereotactic radiation therapy using a single isocenter (SI)–based or multiple isocenter (MI)–based treatment planning in patients with less than 4 brain metastases. In total, 10 patients with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrating 2-3 brain metastases were included in this retrospective study, and 2 sets of stereotactic intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment plans (SI vs MI) were generated. The hippocampus was contoured on SPGR sequences, and doses received by the hippocampus and the brain were calculated and compared between the 2 treatment techniques. A total of 23 lesions in 10 patients were evaluated. The median tumor volume, the right hippocampus volume, and the left hippocampus volume were 3.15, 3.24, and 2.63 mL, respectively. In comparing the 2 treatment plans, there was no difference in the planning target volume (PTV) coverage except in the tail for the dose-volume histogram (DVH) curve. The only statistically significant dosimetric parameter was the V{sub 100}. All of the other measured dosimetric parameters including the V{sub 95}, V{sub 99}, and D{sub 100} were not significantly different between the 2 treatment planning techniques. None of the dosimetric parameters evaluated for the hippocampus revealed any statistically significant difference between the MI and SI plans. The total brain doses were slightly higher in the SI plans, especially in the lower dose region, although this difference was not statistically different. The use of SI-based treatment plan resulted in a 35% reduction in beam-on time. The use of SI treatments for patients with up to 3 brain metastases produces similar PTV coverage and similar normal tissue doses to the hippocampus and the brain when compared with MI plans. SI treatment planning should be considered in patients with multiple brain metastases undergoing stereotactic treatment.
During a quantum measurement, superpositions of states with different observable properties probabilistically collapse into one with a sharp value of the measured observable. In macroscopic quantum systems, this collapse arises via a continuous measurement-induced phase transition (MIPT) at a critical value of the strength of interaction with the measurement apparatus. MIPTs lie outside established paradigms for equilibrium or nonequilibrium critical phenomena and delineate distinct, stable dynamical and computational phases of matter. Quantum computers enable programmable simulation of the interaction of a measurement apparatus with a dynamical quantum system, to explore MIPT phenomena over a range of system sizes while retaining quantum coherence. Yet, existing experimental protocols rely on fundamentally nonscalable postselection techniques or direct classical simulation of quantum circuits. Here, we report the scalable observation of finite-size scaling evidence for an observable-sharpening MIPT in monitored quantum circuits in a chain of Yb + 171 ions in Quantinuum’s H1-1 trapped-ion quantum processor. By leveraging an equivalent description as a statistical physics problem, we implement scalable classical algorithms to infer the value of the measured observable from a single experimental shot. This technique enables a truly scalable protocol to observe observable-sharpening MIPTs in generic classes of circuits that cannot be directly classically simulated and also provides enhanced means to detect and suppress errors in the quantum simulation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
Abstract We present the UNIT N-body cosmological simulations project, designed to provide precise predictions for non-linear statistics of the galaxy distribution. We focus on characterizing statistics relevant to emission line and luminous red galaxies in the current and upcoming generation of galaxy surveys. We use a suite of precise particle mesh simulations (fastpm) as well as with full N-body calculations with a mass resolution of ${\sim } 1.2\times 10^9\, h^{-1}$M⊙ to investigate the recently suggested technique of Angulo and Pontzen to suppress the variance of cosmological simulations. We study redshift-space distortions, cosmic voids, higher order statistics from z = 2 down to 0. We find that both two- and three-point statistics are unbiased. Over the scales of interest for baryon acoustic oscillations and redshift-space distortions, we find that the variance is greatly reduced in the two-point statistics and in the cross-correlation between haloes and cosmic voids, but is not reduced significantly for the three-point statistics. We demonstrate that the accuracy of the two-point correlation function for a galaxy survey with effective volume of 20 (h−1Gpc)3 is improved by about a factor of 40, indicating that two pairs of simulations with a volume of 1 (h−1Gpc)3 lead to the equivalent variance of ∼150 such simulations. The N-body simulations presented here thus provide an effective survey volume of about seven times the effective survey volume of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument or Euclid. The data from this project, including dark matter fields, halo catalogues, and their clustering statistics, are publicly available.
Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA s Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Retrieved profiles from AIRS contain much of the information that is contained in the radiances and may be able to reveal reasons for this reduced impact. Assimilating AIRS retrieved profiles in an identical analysis configuration to the radiances, tracking the quantity and quality of the assimilated data in each technique, and examining analysis increments and forecast impact from each data type can yield clues as to the reasons for the reduced impact. By doing this with regional scale models individual synoptic features (and the impact of AIRS on these features) can be more easily tracked. This project examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing operational techniques used for AIRS radiances and research techniques used for AIRS retrieved profiles. Parallel versions of a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) that mimics the analysis methodology, domain, and observational datasets for the regional North American Mesoscale (NAM) model run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) are run to examine the impact of each type of AIRS data set. The first configuration will assimilate the AIRS radiance data along with other conventional and satellite data using techniques implemented within the operational system; the second configuration will assimilate AIRS retrieved profiles instead of AIRS radiances in the same manner. Preliminary results of this study will be presented and focus on the analysis impact of the radiances and profiles for selected cases.
A technique for segmentation of multifrequency multilook intensity synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data into regions of homogeneous and similar backscatter characteristics is presented. Two statistical models, one for the multifrequency multilook SAR intensities and the other for the distribution of the region labels, are combined to obtain the a posteriori probability distribution function of the region labels given the multifrequency speckled intensities. As the maximization of the posterior distribution is computationally intensive, a suboptimal technique for region labeling is proposed. Several examples using both simulated and real multifrequency multilook imagery are given to illustrate the performance of the algorithm.
Purpose: Accurate patient-specific photon cross-section information is needed to support more accurate model-based dose calculation for low energy photon-emitting modalities in medicine such as brachytherapy and kilovoltage x-ray imaging procedures. A postprocessing dual-energy CT (pDECT) technique for noninvasivein vivo estimation of photon linear attenuation coefficients has been experimentally implemented on a commercial CT scanner and its accuracy assessed in idealized phantom geometries. Methods: Eight test materials of known composition and density were used to compare pDECT-estimated linear attenuation coefficients to NIST reference values over an energy range from 10 keV to 1 MeV. As statistical image reconstruction (SIR) has been shown to reconstruct images with less random and systematic error than conventional filtered backprojection (FBP), the pDECT technique was implemented with both an in-house polyenergetic SIR algorithm, alternating minimization (AM), as well as a conventional FBP reconstruction algorithm. Improvement from increased spectral separation was also investigated by filtering the high-energy beam with an additional 0.5 mm of tin. The law of propagated uncertainty was employed to assess the sensitivity of the pDECT process to errors in reconstructed images. Results: Mean pDECT-estimated linear attenuation coefficients for the eight test materials agreed within 1% of NIST reference values for energies from 1 MeV down to 30 keV, with mean errors rising to between 3% and 6% at 10 keV, indicating that the method is unbiased when measurement and calibration phantom geometries are matched. Reconstruction with FBP and AM algorithms conferred similar mean pDECT accuracy. However, single-voxel pDECT estimates reconstructed on a 1 × 1 × 3 mm{sup 3} grid are shown to be highly sensitive to reconstructed image uncertainty; in some cases pDECT attenuation coefficient estimates exhibited standard deviations on the order of 20% around the mean. Reconstruction with the statistical AM algorithm led to standard deviations roughly 40% to 60% less than FBP reconstruction. Additional tin filtration of the high energy beam exhibits similar pDECT estimation accuracy as the unfiltered beam, even when scanning with only 25% of the dose. Using the law of propagated uncertainty, low Z materials are found to be more sensitive to image reconstruction errors than high Z materials. Furthermore, it is estimated that reconstructed CT image uncertainty must be limited to less than 0.25% to achieve a target linear-attenuation coefficient estimation uncertainty of 3% at 28 keV. Conclusions: That pDECT supports mean linear attenuation coefficient measurement accuracies of 1% of reference values for energies greater than 30 keV is encouraging. However, the sensitivity of the pDECT measurements to noise and systematic errors in reconstructed CT images warrants further investigation in more complex phantom geometries. The investigated statistical reconstruction algorithm, AM, reduced random measurement uncertainty relative to FBP owing to improved noise performance. These early results also support efforts to increase DE spectral separation, which can further reduce the pDECT sensitivity to measurement uncertainty.
As one component of a ground validation system to meet requirements for the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, a quasi-operational prototype a system to compare satellite- and ground-based radar measurements has been developed. This prototype, the GPM Validation Network (VN), acquires data from the Precipitation Radar (PR) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and from ground radar (GR) networks in the continental U.S. and participating international sites. PR data serve as a surrogate for similar observations from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) to be present on GPM. Primary goals of the VN prototype are to understand and characterize the variability and bias of precipitation retrievals between the PR and GR in various precipitation regimes at large scales, and to improve precipitation retrieval algorithms for the GPM instruments. The current VN capabilities concentrate on comparisons of the base reflectivity observations between the PR and GR, and include support for rain rate comparisons. The VN algorithm resamples PR and GR reflectivity and other 2-D and 3-D data fields to irregular common volumes defined by the geometric intersection of the instrument observations, and performs statistical comparisons of PR and GR reflectivity and estimated rain rates. Algorithmic biases and uncertainties introduced by traditional data analysis techniques are minimized by not performing interpolation or extrapolation of data to a fixed grid. The core VN dataset consists of WSR-88D GR data and matching PR orbit subset data covering 21 sites in the southeastern U. S., from August, 2006 to the present. On average, about 3.5 overpass events per month for these WSR-88D sites meet VN criteria for significant precipitation, and have matching PR and GR data available. This large statistical sample has allowed the relative calibration accuracy and stability of the individual ground radars, and the quality of the PR reflectivity attenuation correction in convective and stratiform precipitation to be evaluated. We will present results of PR-GR reflectivity and rain rate bias comparisons for each OR site, and for different rain types, for the full data set and as time series. The capabilities of the statistical analysis and vertical cross section tools for display and analysis of individual site overpass event data will be described, and examples of the tools' outputs will be shown.
We present a cosmic void catalog using the large-scale structure galaxy catalog from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). This galaxy catalog is part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 12 and is the final catalog of SDSS-III. We take into account the survey boundaries, masks, and angular and radial selection functions, and apply the ZOBOV void finding algorithm to the Galaxy catalog. We identify a total of 10,643 voids. After making quality cuts to ensure that the voids represent real underdense regions, we obtain 1,228 voids with effective radii spanning the range 20–100 h{sup −1} Mpc and with central densities that are, on average, 30% of the mean sample density. We release versions of the catalogs both with and without quality cuts. We discuss the basic statistics of voids, such as their size and redshift distributions, and measure the radial density profile of the voids via a stacking technique. In addition, we construct mock void catalogs from 1000 mock galaxy catalogs, and find that the properties of BOSS voids are in good agreement with those in the mock catalogs. We compare the stellar mass distribution of galaxies living inside and outside of the voids, and find no large difference. These BOSS and mock void catalogs are useful for a number of cosmological and galaxy environment studies.
Here, a procedure for determining the joint uncertainty of Arrhenius parameters across multiple combustion reactions of interest is demonstrated. This approach is capable of constructing the joint distribution of the Arrhenius parameters arising from the uncertain measurements performed in specific target experiments without having direct access to the underlying experimental data. The method involves constructing an ensemble of hypothetical data sets with summary statistics consistent with the available information reported by the experimentalists, followed by a fitting procedure that learns the structure of the joint parameter density across reactions using this consistent hypothetical data as evidence. The procedure is formalized in a Bayesian statistical framework, employing maximum-entropy and approximate Bayesian computation methods and utilizing efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to explore data and parameter spaces in a nested algorithm. We demonstrate the application of the method in the context of experiments designed to measure the rates of selected chain reactions in the H 2 -O 2 system and highlight the utility of this approach for revealing the critical correlations between the parameters within a single reaction and across reactions, as well as for maximizing consistency when utilizing rate parameter information in predictive combustion modeling of systems of interest.
Forecasters at the Spaceflight Meteorology Group, 45th Weather Squadron, and National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL use mesoscale numerical weather prediction model output in creating their operational forecasts. These models aid in forecasting weather phenomena that could compromise the safety of launch, landing, and daily ground operations and must produce reasonable weather forecasts in order for their output to be useful in operations. Considering the importance of model forecasts to operations, their accuracy in forecasting critical weather phenomena must be verified to determine their usefulness. The currently-used traditional verification techniques involve an objective point-by-point comparison of model output and observations valid at the same time and location. The resulting statistics can unfairly penalize high-resolution models that make realistic forecasts of a certain phenomena, but are offset from the observations in small time and/or space increments. Manual subjective verification can provide a more valid representation of model performance, but is time-consuming and prone to personal biases. An objective technique that verifies specific meteorological phenomena, much in the way a human would in a subjective evaluation, would likely produce a more realistic assessment of model performance. Such techniques are being developed in the research community. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to conduct a literature search to identify phenomenological verification techniques being developed, determine if any are ready to use operationally, and outline the steps needed to implement any operationally-ready techniques into the Advanced Weather Information Processing System (AWIPS). The AMU conducted a search of all literature on the topic of phenomenological-based mesoscale model verification techniques and found 10 different techniques in various stages of development. Six of the techniques were developed to verify precipitation forecasts, one to verify sea breeze forecasts, and three were capable of verifying several phenomena. The AMU also determined the feasibility of transitioning each technique into operations and rated the operational capability of each technique on a subjective 1-10 scale: (1) 1 indicates that the technique is only in the initial stages of development, (2) 2-5 indicates that the technique is still undergoing modifications and is not ready for operations, (3) 6-8 indicates a higher probability of integrating the technique into AWIPS with code modifications, and (4) 9-10 indicates that the technique was created for AWIPS and is ready for implementation. Eight of the techniques were assigned a rating of 5 or below. The other two received ratings of 6 and 7, and none of the techniques a rating of 9-10. At the current time, there are no phenomenological model verification techniques ready for operational use. However, several of the techniques described in this report may become viable techniques in the future and should be monitored for updates in the literature. The desire to use a phenomenological verification technique is widespread in the modeling community, and it is likely that other techniques besides those described herein are being developed, but the work has not yet been published. Therefore, the AMIU recommends that the literature continue to be monitored for updates to the techniques described in this report and for new techniques being developed whose results have not yet been published. 111
The vast majority of metallic engineering materials are solidified from the liquid phase. Understanding the solidification process is essential to control microstructure, which in turn, determines the properties of materials. The genesis of solidification is nucleation, where the first stable solid forms from the liquid phase. Nucleation kinetics determine the degree of undercooling and phase selection. As such, it is important to understand nucleation phenomena in order to control solidification or glass formation in metals and alloys. Early experiments in nucleation kinetics were accomplished by droplet dispersion methods. Dilatometry was used by Turnbull and others, and more recently differential thermal analysis and differential scanning calorimetry have been used for kinetic studies. These techniques have enjoyed success; however, there are difficulties with these experiments. Since materials are dispersed in a medium, the character of the emulsion/metal interface affects the nucleation behavior. Statistics are derived from the large number of particles observed in a single experiment, but dispersions have a finite size distribution which adds to the uncertainty of the kinetic determinations. Even though temperature can be controlled quite well before the onset of nucleation, the release of the latent heat of fusion during nucleation of particles complicates the assumption of isothermality during these experiments. Containerless processing has enabled another approach to the study of nucleation kinetics. With levitation techniques it is possible to undercool one sample to nucleation repeatedly in a controlled manner, such that the statistics of the nucleation process can be derived from multiple experiments on a single sample. The authors have fully developed the analysis of nucleation experiments on single samples following the suggestions of Skripov. The advantage of these experiments is that the samples are directly observable. The nucleation temperature can be measured by noncontact optical pyrometry, the mass of the sample is known, and post processing analysis can be conducted on the sample. The disadvantages are that temperature measurement must have exceptionally high precision, and it is not possible to isolate specific heterogeneous sites as in droplet dispersions.
The vast majority of metallic engineering materials are solidified from the liquid phase. Understanding the solidification process is essential to control microstructure, which in turn, determines the properties of materials. The genesis of solidification is nucleation, where the first stable solid forms from the liquid phase. Nucleation kinetics determine the degree of undercooling and phase selection. As such, it is important to understand nucleation phenomena in order to control solidification or glass formation in metals and alloys. Early experiments in nucleation kinetics were accomplished by droplet dispersion methods. Dilitometry was used by Turnbull and others, and more recently differential thermal analysis and differential scanning calorimetry have been used for kinetic studies. These techniques have enjoyed success; however, there are difficulties with these experiments. Since materials are dispersed in a medium, the character of the emulsion/metal interface affects the nucleation behavior. Statistics are derived from the large number of particles observed in a single experiment, but dispersions have a finite size distribution which adds to the uncertainty of the kinetic determinations. Even though temperature can be controlled quite well before the onset of nucleation, the release of the latent heat of fusion during nucleation of particles complicates the assumption of isothermality during these experiments. Containerless processing has enabled another approach to the study of nucleation kinetics. With levitation techniques it is possible to undercool one sample to nucleation repeatedly in a controlled manner, such that the statistics of the nucleation process can be derived from multiple experiments on a single sample. The authors have fully developed the analysis of nucleation experiments on single samples following the suggestions of Skripov. The advantage of these experiments is that the samples are directly observable. The nucleation temperature can be measured by noncontact optical pyrometry, the mass of the sample is known, and post-processing analysis can be conducted on the sample. The disadvantages are that temperature measurement must have exceptionally high precision, and it is not possible to isolate specific heterogeneous sites as in droplet dispersions. Levitation processing of refractory materials in ultra high vacuum provides an avenue to conduct these kinetic studies on single samples. Two experimental methods have been identified where ultra high vacuum experiments are possible; electrostatic levitation in ground-based experiments and electromagnetic processing in low earth orbit on TEMPUS. Such experiments, reported here, were conducted on zirconium. Liquid zirconium is an excellent solvent and has a high solubility for contaminants contained in the bulk material as well as those contaminants found in the vacuum environment. Oxides, nitrides, and carbides do not exist in the melt, and do not form on the surface of molten zirconium, for the materials and vacuum levels used in this study. Ground-based experiments with electrostatic levitation have shown that the statistical nucleation kinetic experiments are viable and yield results which are consistent with classical nucleation theory. The advantage of low earth orbit experiments is the ability to vary the flow conditions in the liquid prior to nucleation. The put-pose of nucleation experiments in TEMPUS was to examine.
High-speed, optical imaging diagnostics are presented for three-dimensional (3D) quantification of explosively driven metal fragmentation. At early times after detonation, Digital Image Correlation (DIC) provides non-contact measures of 3D case velocities, strains, and strain rates, while a proposed stereo imaging configuration quantifies in-flight fragment masses and velocities at later times. Experiments are performed using commercially obtained RP-80 detonators from Teledyne RISI, which are shown to create a reproducible fragment field at the benchtop scale. DIC measurements are compared with 3D simulations, which have been ‘leveled’ to match the spatial resolution of DIC. Overall, results demonstrate improved ability to identify predicted quantities-of-interest that fall outside of measurement uncertainty and shot-to-shot variability. Similarly, video measures of fragment trajectories and masses allow rapid experimental repetition and provide correlated fragment size-velocity measurements. Measured and simulated fragment mass distributions are shown to agree within confidence bounds, while some statistically meaningful differences are observed between the measured and predicted conditionally averaged fragment velocities. Together these techniques demonstrate new opportunities to improve future model validation.
Laboratory X-ray microtomography is investigated as a method for obtaining time-resolved images of microstructural coarsening of the semisolid state of Al–5 wt.% Cu samples during Ostwald ripening. Owing to the 3D imaging capability of tomography, this technique uniquely provides access to the growth rates of individual particles, thereby not only allowing a statistical characterization of coarsening—as has long been possible by conventional metallography—but also enabling quantification of the influence of local environment on particle boundary migration. The latter information is crucial to understanding growth kinetics during Ostwald ripening at high volume fractions of the coarsening phase. Automated image processing and segmentation routines were developed to close gaps in the network of particle boundaries and to track individual particles from one annealing step to the next. The particle tracking success rate places an upper bound of only a few percent on the likelihood of segmentation errors for any given particle. The accuracy of particle size trajectories extracted from the time-resolved tomographic reconstructions is correspondingly high. Statistically averaged coarsening data and individual particle growth rates are in excellent agreement with the results of prior experimental studies and with computer simulations of Ostwald ripening. - Highlights: • Ostwald ripening in Al–5 wt.% Cu measured by laboratory X-ray microtomography • Time-resolved measurement of individual particle growth • Automated segmentation routines developed to close gaps in particle boundary network • Particle growth/shrinkage rates deviate from LSW model prediction.