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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Quantifying the Impact of Systems Interdependencies in Space Systems Architectures

Due to the high number of systems in a space mission architecture and to their complex interactions, identifying risk and critical operational dependencies is not obvious. Traditional systems engineering methodology and risk assessment does not capture the impact of interactions between systems nor the cascading effects of disruptions. Based on these considerations, the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology was developed for use by systems analysts and decision makers. This methodology utilizes a parametric model of interdependencies between systems to quantify the direct and indirect impact of system disruptions on other systems, as well as identify root causes. The results are effective at providing decision support for prioritizing technology investment based on risk reduction associated with potential system disruptions. Expanding on research presented at IAC 2018 and based on a collaboration with NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, this paper applies the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology to NASA Lunar Gateway in collaboration with NASA’s lunar exploration plans. The paper presents a hierarchical representation of the interdependencies between a Gateway habitat’s systems and subsystems, demonstrates quantification of the impact of disruption, and assesses the criticality of the constituent systems and subsystems.

Guariniello, Cesare↗

A UNIVERSAL POWER-LAW PROFILE OF PSEUDO-PHASE-SPACE DENSITY-LIKE QUANTITIES IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

We study profiles of mass density, velocity dispersion (VD), and a combination of both using ∼2000 nearly spherical and rotation-free Sloan Digital Sky Survey galaxies. For observational stellar mass density ρ{sub *}(r), we consider a range of dark matter (DM) distribution ρ{sub DM}(r) and VD anisotropy β(r) to investigate radial stellar VD σ{sub *r}(r) using the spherical Jeans equation. While mass and VD profiles vary appreciably depending on DM distribution and anisotropy, the pseudo-phase-space density-like combination ρ(r)/σ{sub ⋆r}{sup 3}(r) with total density ρ(r) = ρ{sub *}(r) + ρ{sub DM}(r) is nearly universal. In the optical region, the negative logarithmic slope has a mean value of (χ) ≈ 1.86-1.90 with a galaxy-to-galaxy rms scatter of ≈0.04-0.06, which is a few times smaller than that of ρ(r) profiles. The scatter of χ can be increased by invoking wildly varying anisotropies that are, however, less likely because they would produce too large a scatter of line of sight VD profiles. As an independent check of this universality, we analyze stellar orbit-based dynamical models of 15 early-type galaxies (ETGs) of the Coma cluster provided by J. Thomas. Coma ETGs, with σ{sub *r}(r) replaced by the rms velocity of stars v {sub *rms}(r) including net rotation, exhibit a similar universality with a slope of χ = 1.93 ± 0.06. Remarkably, the inferred values of χ for ETGs match well the slope ≈1.9 predicted by N-body simulations of DM halos. We argue that the inferred universal nature of ρ(r)/σ{sub ⋆r}{sup 3}(r) cannot be fully explained by equilibrium alone, implying that some astrophysical factors conspire and/or it reflects a fundamental principle in collisionless formation processes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Settlement Risk at Land Disposal Facilities - 12304

The long-term reliability of land disposal facility final cover systems - and therefore the overall waste containment - depends on the distortions imposed on these systems by differential settlement/subsidence. The evaluation of differential settlement is challenging because of the heterogeneity of the waste mass (caused by inconsistent compaction, void space distribution, debris-soil mix ratio, waste material stiffness, time-dependent primary compression of the fine-grained soil matrix, long-term creep settlement of the soil matrix and the debris, etc.) at most land disposal facilities. Deterministic approaches to long-term final cover settlement prediction are not able to capture the spatial variability in the waste mass and sub-grade properties which control differential settlement. An alternative, probabilistic solution is to use random fields to model the waste and sub-grade properties. The modeling effort informs the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of land disposal facilities. A probabilistic method to establish design criteria for waste placement and compaction is introduced using the model. Random fields are ideally suited to problems of differential settlement modeling of highly heterogeneous foundations, such as waste. Random fields model the seemingly random spatial distribution of a design parameter, such as compressibility. When used for design, the use of these models prompts the need for probabilistic design criteria. It also allows for a statistical approach to waste placement acceptance criteria. An example design evaluation was performed, illustrating the use of the probabilistic differential settlement simulation methodology to assemble a design guidance chart. The purpose of this design evaluation is to enable the designer to select optimal initial combinations of design slopes and quality control acceptance criteria that yield an acceptable proportion of post-settlement slopes meeting some design minimum. For this specific example, relative density, which can be determined through field measurements, was selected as the field quality control parameter for waste placement. This technique can be extended to include a rigorous performance-based methodology using other parameters (void space criteria, debris-soil mix ratio, pre-loading, etc.). As shown in this example, each parameter range, or sets of parameter ranges can be selected such that they can result in an acceptable, long-term differential settlement according to the probabilistic model. The methodology can also be used to re-evaluate the long-term differential settlement behavior at closed land disposal facilities to identify, if any, problematic facilities so that remedial action (e.g., reinforcement of upper and intermediate waste layers) can be implemented. Considering the inherent spatial variability in waste and earth materials and the need for engineers to apply sound quantitative practices to engineering analysis, it is important to apply the available probabilistic techniques to problems of differential settlement. One such method to implement probability-based differential settlement analyses for the design of landfill final covers has been presented. The design evaluation technique presented is one tool to bridge the gap from deterministic practice to probabilistic practice. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Properties of Cathodoluminescence for Cryogenic Applications of SiO2-based Space Observatory Optics and Coatings

Disordered thin film SiO2SiOx coatings undergoing electron-beam bombardment exhibit cathodoluminescence, which can produce deleterious stray background light in cryogenic space-based astronomical observatories exposed to high-energy electron fluxes from space plasmas. As future observatory missions push the envelope into more extreme environments and more complex and sensitive detection, a fundamental understanding of the dependencies of this cathodoluminescence becomes critical to meet performance objectives of these advanced space-based observatories. Measurements of absolute radiance and emission spectra as functions of incident electron energy, flux, and power typical of space environments are presented for thin (60-200 nm) SiO2SiOx optical coatings on reflective metal substrates over a range of sample temperatures (40-400 K) and emission wavelengths (260-5000 nm). Luminescent intensity and peak wavelengths of four distinct bands were observed in UVVISNIR emission spectra, ranging from 300 nm to 1000 nm. A simple model is proposed that describes the dependence of cathodoluminescence on irradiation time, incident flux and energy, sample thickness, and temperature.

electron-beam bombardment↗

High Performance, Dependable Multiprocessor

With the ever increasing demand for higher bandwidth and processing capacity of today's space exploration, space science, and defense missions, the ability to efficiently apply commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) processors for on-board computing is now a critical need. In response to this need, NASA's New Millennium Program office has commissioned the development of Dependable Multiprocessor (DM) technology for use in payload and robotic missions. The Dependable Multiprocessor technology is a COTS-based, power efficient, high performance, highly dependable, fault tolerant cluster computer. To date, Honeywell has successfully demonstrated a TRL4 prototype of the Dependable Multiprocessor [I], and is now working on the development of a TRLS prototype. For the present effort Honeywell has teamed up with the University of Florida's High-performance Computing and Simulation (HCS) Lab, and together the team has demonstrated major elements of the Dependable Multiprocessor TRLS system.

fault tolerant↗

Probing New physics with high-redshift quasars: axions and non-standard cosmology

The Hubble diagram of quasars, as candidates to “standardizable” candles, has been used to measure the expansion history of the Universe at late times, up to very high redshifts ( z ~ 7). It has been shown that this history, as inferred from the quasar dataset, deviates at ≳ 3 σ level from the concordance (ΛCDM) cosmology model preferred by the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and other datasets. In this article, we investigate whether new physics beyond ΛCDM (BΛCDM) or beyond the Standard Model (BSM) could make the quasar data consistent with the concordance model. We first show that an effective redshift-dependent relation between the quasar UV and X-ray luminosities, complementing previous phenomenological work in the literature, can potentially remedy the discrepancy. Such a redshift dependence can be realized in a BSM model with axion-photon conversion in the intergalactic medium (IGM), although the preferred parameter space is in tension with various other astrophysical constraints on axions, at a level depending on the specific assumptions made regarding the IGM magnetic field. We briefly discuss a variation of the axion model that could evade these astrophysical constraints. On the other hand, we show that models beyond ΛCDM such as one with a varying dark energy equation of state ( w CDM) or the phenomenological cosmographic model with a polynomial expansion of the luminosity distance, cannot alleviate the tension. The code for our analysis, based on emcee [1] and corner.py [2], is publicly available at github.com/ChenSun-Phys/high_z_candles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Recent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic uncertainty vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of ~ 1.5 × with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach indeed yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is solely degenerate with the cosmological model in redshift space or whether it can be described by additional correlations between supernova properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the data set, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently used photometric analysis methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space Station Environmental Health System water quality monitoring

One of the unique aspects of the Space Station is that it will be a totally encapsulated environment and the air and water supplies will be reclaimed for reuse. The Environmental Health System, a subsystem of CHeCS (Crew Health Care System), must monitor the air and water on board the Space Station Freedom to verify that the quality is adequate for crew safety. Specifically, the Water Quality Subsystem will analyze the potable and hygiene water supplies regularly for organic, inorganic, particulate, and microbial contamination. The equipment selected to perform these analyses will be commercially available instruments which will be converted for use on board the Space Station Freedom. Therefore, the commercial hardware will be analyzed to identify the gravity dependent functions and modified to eliminate them. The selection, analysis, and conversion of the off-the-shelf equipment for monitoring the Space Station reclaimed water creates a challenging project for the Water Quality engineers and scientists.

Vincze, Johanna E.↗

Time Filtering in Large Eddy Simulations

An explicit time filter is applied to the Navier-Stokes equation prior to a space filter. The time filter is supposed to be smooth, and an exact expansion depending on the time derivatives of the velocity is derived for the associated stress tensor. On the contrary, the effect of the space filter is treated as usual and an eddy viscosity model is introduced in the LES equation. The total stress is thus represented using a new class of mixed models combining time and space derivatives of the LES field.

Carati, Daniele↗

Simulation of a data archival and distribution system at GSFC

A version-0 of a Data Archive and Distribution System (DADS) is being developed at GSFC to support existing and pre-EOS Earth science datasets and test Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) concepts. The performance of DADS is predicted using a discrete event simulation model. The goals of the simulation were to estimate the amount of disk space needed and the time required to fulfill the DADS requirements for ingestion (14 GB/day) and distribution (48 GB/day). The model has demonstrated that 4 mm and 8 mm stackers can play a critical role in improving the performance of the DADS, since it takes, on average, 3 minutes to manually mount/dismount tapes compared to less than a minute with stackers. With two 4 mm stackers and two 8 mm stackers, and a single operator per shift, the DADS requirements can be met within 16 hours using a total of 9 GB of disk space. When the DADS has no stacker, and the DADS depends entirely on operators to handle the distribution tapes, the simulation has shown that the DADS requirements can still be met within 16 hours, but a minimum of 4 operators per shift were required. The compression/decompression of data sets is very CPU intensive, and relatively slow when performed in software, thereby contributing to an increase in the amount of disk space needed.

Bedet, Jean-Jacques↗

Comparison of Integrated Radiation Transport Models with TEPC Measurements for the Average Quality Factors in Spaceflights

The purpose of this work is to test our theoretical model for the interpretation of radiation data measured in space. During the space missions astronauts are exposed to the complex field of radiation type and kinetic energies from galactic cosmic rays (GCR), trapped protons, and sometimes solar particle events (SPEs). The tissue equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) is a simple time-dependent approach for radiation monitoring for astronauts on board the International Space Station. Another and a newer approach to Microdosimetry is the use of silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technology launched on the MidSTAR-1 mission in low Earth orbit (LEO). In the radiation protection practice, the average quality factor of a radiation field is defined as a function of linear energy transfer (LET), Q(sub ave)(LET). However, TEPC measures the average quality factor as a function of the lineal energy y, Q(sub ave)(y), defined as the average energy deposition in a volume divided by the average chord length of the volume. Lineal energy, y, deviates from LET due to energy straggling, delta-ray escape or entry, and nuclear fragments produced in the detector volume. Monte Carlo track structure simulation was employed to obtain the response of a TEPC irradiated with charged particle for an equivalent site diameter of 1 micron of wall-less counter. The calculated data of the energy absorption in the wall-less counter were compiled for various y values for several ion types at various discrete projectile energy levels. For the simulation of TEPC response from the mixed radiation environments inside a spacecraft, such as, Space Shuttle and International Space Station, the complete microdosimetric TEPC response, f( y, E, Z), were calculated with the Monte Carlo theoretical results by using the first order Lagrangian interpolation for a monovariate function at a given y value (y = 0.1 keV/micron 5000 keV/micron) at any projectile energy level (E = 0.01 MeV/u to 50,000 MeV/u) of each specific radiation type (Z = 1 to 28). Because the anomalous response has been observed at large event sizes in the experiment due to the escape of energy out of sensitive volume by delta-rays and the entry of delta-rays from the high-density wall into the low-density gas-volume cavity, Monte Carlo simulation was also made for the response of a walled-TEPC with wall thickness 2 mm and density 1 g/cm(exp 3). The radius of cavity was set to 6.35 mm and a gas density 7.874 x 10(exp -5) g/cm(exp 3). The response of the walled- and the wall-less counters were compared. The average quality factor Q(sub ave)(y) for trapped protons on STS-89 demonstrated the good agreement between the model calculations and flight TEPC data as shown. Using an integrated space radiation model (this includes the transport codes HZETRN and BRYNTRN, the quantum nuclear interaction model QMSFRG) and the resultant response distribution functions of walled-TEPC from Monte-Carlo track simulations, we compared model calculations with walled-TEPC measurements from NASA missions in LEO and made predictions for the lunar and the Mars missions. The Q(sub ave)(y) values for the trapped or the solar protons ranged from 1.9-2.5. This over-estimates the Qave(LET) values which ranged from 1.4-1.6. Both quantities increase with shield thickness due to nuclear fragmentation. The Q(sub ave)(LET) for the complete GCR spectra was found to be 3.5-4.5, while flight TEPCs measured 2.9-3.4 for Q(sub ave)(y). The GCR values are decreasing with the shield thickness. Our analysis for a proper interpretation of data supports the use of TEPCs for monitoring space radiation environment.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

TH-CD-209-05: Impact of Spot Size and Spacing On the Quality of Robustly-Optimized Intensity-Modulated Proton Therapy Plans for Lung Cancer

Purpose: To investigate how spot size and spacing affect plan quality, especially, plan robustness and the impact of interplay effect, of robustly-optimized intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans for lung cancer. Methods: Two robustly-optimized IMPT plans were created for 10 lung cancer patients: (1) one for a proton beam with in-air energy dependent large spot size at isocenter (σ: 5–15 mm) and spacing (1.53σ); (2) the other for a proton beam with small spot size (σ: 2–6 mm) and spacing (5 mm). Both plans were generated on the average CTs with internal-gross-tumor-volume density overridden to irradiate internal target volume (ITV). The root-mean-square-dose volume histograms (RVH) measured the sensitivity of the dose to uncertainties, and the areas under RVH curves were used to evaluate plan robustness. Dose evaluation software was developed to model time-dependent spot delivery to incorporate interplay effect with randomized starting phases of each field per fraction. Patient anatomy voxels were mapped from phase to phase via deformable image registration to score doses. Dose-volume-histogram indices including ITV coverage, homogeneity, and organs-at-risk (OAR) sparing were compared using Student-t test. Results: Compared to large spots, small spots resulted in significantly better OAR sparing with comparable ITV coverage and homogeneity in the nominal plan. Plan robustness was comparable for ITV and most OARs. With interplay effect considered, significantly better OAR sparing with comparable ITV coverage and homogeneity is observed using smaller spots. Conclusion: Robust optimization with smaller spots significantly improves OAR sparing with comparable plan robustness and similar impact of interplay effect compare to larger spots. Small spot size requires the use of larger number of spots, which gives optimizer more freedom to render a plan more robust. The ratio between spot size and spacing was found to be more relevant to determine plan robustness and the impact of interplay effect than spot size alone. This research was supported by the National Cancer Institute Career Developmental Award K25CA168984, by the Fraternal Order of Eagles Cancer Research Fund Career Development Award, by The Lawrence W. and Marilyn W. Matteson Fund for Cancer Research, by Mayo Arizona State University Seed Grant, and by The Kemper Marley Foundation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Timed to save: the added value of accounting for hourly incidence of electricity savings from residential space-conditioning measures

Abstract Previous research has recognized that the value of measures that reduce electricity usage depends upon the timing of the savings generated, but the lack of hourly savings shapes has limited the demonstration of this concept. We develop empirical hourly savings shapes for residential space-conditioning measures from nearly 18,000 efficiency projects in California and show how they combine with the diurnal and seasonal variation in electricity system costs. We find that these measures (cooling replacements; windows, doors, and skylights; and other envelope measures) tend to save electricity when system costs are highest and that the hourly savings account for 1.4–1.5 times as much value as non-time-sensitive estimates of efficiency would predict. We present these impact multipliers for each measure to quantify the additional value revealed by the time-sensitive approach. We show that this additional value is similar in an evolving electricity grid with storage, rather than natural gas generation, as the marginal resource.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Shielding Strategies for Human Space Exploration

A group of twenty-nine scientists and engineers convened a 'Workshop on Shielding Strategies for Human Space Exploration' at the Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas. The provision of shielding for a Mars mission or a Lunar base from the hazards of space radiations is a critical technology since astronaut radiation safety depends on it and shielding safety factors to control risk uncertainty appear to be great. The purpose of the workshop was to define requirements for the development and evaluation of high performance shield materials and designs and to develop ideas regarding approaches to radiation shielding. The workshop was organized to review the recent experience on shielding strategies gained in studies of the 'Space Exploration Initiative (SEI),' to review the current knowledge base for making shield assessment, to examine a basis for new shielding strategies, and to recommend a strategy for developing the required technologies for a return to the moon or for Mars exploration. The uniqueness of the current workshop arises from the expected long duration of the missions without the protective cover of the geomagnetic field in which the usually small and even neglected effects of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) can no longer be ignored. It is the peculiarity of these radiations for which the inter-action physics and biological action are yet to be fully understood.

Wilson J. W.↗

Renormalon cancellation and linear power correction to threshold-like asymptotics of space-like parton correlators

Abstract In this paper, we show that the common hard kernel of double-log-type or threshold-type factorization for certain space-like parton correlators that arise in the context of lattice parton distributions, theheavy-light Sudakov hard kernel, has linear infrared (IR) renormalon. We explicitly demonstrate how this IR renormalon correlates with ultraviolet (UV) renormalons of next-to-leading power operators in two explicit examples: threshold asymptotics of space-like quark-bilinear coefficient functions and transverse momentum dependent (TMD) factorization of quasi wave function amplitude. Theoretically, the pattern of renormalon cancellation complies with general expectations to marginal asymptotics in the UV limit. Practically, this linear renormalon explains the slow convergence of imaginary parts observed in lattice extraction of the Collins-Soper kernel and signals the relevance of next-to-leading power contributions. Fully factorized, fully controlled threshold asymptotic expansion for space-like quark-bilinear coefficient functions in coordinate and moment space has also been proposed.

Physics↗

Freeze-in, glaciation, and UV sensitivity from light mediators

Dark matter (DM) freeze-in through a light mediator is an appealing model with excellent detection prospects at current and future experiments. Light mediator freeze-in is UV-insensitive insofar as most DM is produced at late times, and thus the DM abundance does not depend on the unknown early evolution of our universe. However the final DM yield retains a dependence on the initial DM population, which is usually assumed to be exactly zero. We point out that in models with light mediators, the final DM yield will also depend on the initial conditions assumed for the light mediator population. We describe a class of scenarios we call “glaciation” where DM freezing in from the SM encounters a pre-existing thermal bath of mediators, and study the dependence of the final DM yield on the initial temperature of this dark radiation bath. To compute DM scattering rates in this cosmology, we derive for the first time an exact integral expression for the Boltzmann collision term describing interactions between two species at different temperatures. We quantify the dependence of the DM yield on the initial dark temperature and find that it can be sizeable in regions near the traditional (zero initial abundance) freeze-in curve. We generalize the freeze-in curve to a glaciation band, which can extend as much as an order of magnitude below the traditional freeze-in direct detection target, and point out that the DM phase space distribution as well as the yield can be strongly dependent on initial conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NEUTRON STAR MASS–RADIUS CONSTRAINTS USING EVOLUTIONARY OPTIMIZATION

The equation of state of cold supra-nuclear-density matter, such as in neutron stars, is an open question in astrophysics. A promising method for constraining the neutron star equation of state is modeling pulse profiles of thermonuclear X-ray burst oscillations from hot spots on accreting neutron stars. The pulse profiles, constructed using spherical and oblate neutron star models, are comparable to what would be observed by a next-generation X-ray timing instrument like ASTROSAT , NICER , or a mission similar to LOFT . In this paper, we showcase the use of an evolutionary optimization algorithm to fit pulse profiles to determine the best-fit masses and radii. By fitting synthetic data, we assess how well the optimization algorithm can recover the input parameters. Multiple Poisson realizations of the synthetic pulse profiles, constructed with 1.6 million counts and no background, were fitted with the Ferret algorithm to analyze both statistical and degeneracy-related uncertainty and to explore how the goodness of fit depends on the input parameters. For the regions of parameter space sampled by our tests, the best-determined parameter is the projected velocity of the spot along the observer’s line of sight, with an accuracy of ≤3% compared to the true value and with ≤5% statistical uncertainty. The next best determined are the mass and radius; for a neutron star with a spin frequency of 600 Hz, the best-fit mass and radius are accurate to ≤5%, with respective uncertainties of ≤7% and ≤10%. The accuracy and precision depend on the observer inclination and spot colatitude, with values of ∼1% achievable in mass and radius if both the inclination and colatitude are ≳60°.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗