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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

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DOE OSTI2020

BASS: An R Package for Fitting and Performing Sensitivity Analysis of Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces

In this work, we present the R package BASS as a tool for nonparametric regression. The primary focus of the package is fitting fully Bayesian adaptive spline surface (BASS) models and performing global sensitivity analyses of these models. The BASS framework is similar to that of Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression splines (BMARS) from Denison, Mallick, and Smith (1998), but with many added features. The software is built to efficiently handle significant amounts of data with many continuous or categorical predictors and with functional response. Under our Bayesian framework, most priors are automatic but these can be modified by the user to focus on parsimony and the avoidance of overfitting. If directed to do so, the software uses parallel tempering to improve the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods used to perform inference. We discuss the implementation of these features and present the performance of BASS in a number of analyses of simulated and real data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1980

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Sidik, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

All-theoretical prediction of cabin noise due to impingement of propeller vortices on a wing structure

Reported calculations of structure-borne cabin noise for a small twin engine aircraft powered by tractor propellers rely on the following three-stage methodological breakup of the problem: (1) the unsteady-aerodynamic prediction of wing lift harmonics caused by the whipping action of the vortex system trailed from each propeller; (2) the associated wing/fuselage structural response; (3) the cabin noise field for the computed wall vibration. The first part--the estimate of airloads--skirts a full-fledged aeroelastic situation by assuming the wing to be fixed in space while cancelling the downwash field of the cutting vortices. The model is based on an approximate high-frequency lifting-surface theory justified by the blade rate and flight Mach number of application. Its results drive a finite-element representation of the wing accounting for upper and lower skin surfaces, spars, ribs, and the presence of fuel. The fuselage, modeled as a frame-stiffened cylindrical shell, is bolted to the wing.

Martinez, R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ion beam generation at the plasma sheet boundary layer by kinetic Alfven waves

A two-dimensional quasi-linear numerical code was developed for studying ion beam generation at the plasma sheet boundary layer by kinetic Alfven waves. The model assumes that the central plasma sheet is the particle source, and that the last magnetic field lines on which kinetic Alfven waves exist and diffusion occurs can be either open or closed. As the possible source for the excitement of the kinetic Alfven waves responsible for ion diffusion, the resonant mode conversion of the surface waves to kinetic Alfven waves is considered. It is shown that, depending on the topology of the magnetic field at the lobe side of the simulation system, i.e., on whether field lines are open or closed, the ion distribution function may or may not reach a steady state.

Moghaddam-Taaheri, E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Flight control design considerations for STOVL powered-lift flight

Short Takeoff Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft rely on the propulsion system for the lift and control functions during slow speed flight. The propulsion system provides the entire lifting force and all of the control power for hovering flight at zero airspeed. STOVL designs such as the General Dynamics E-7D ejector configuration incorporate an integrated flight/propulsion control system to manage the aerodynamic and propulsive-lift control effectors and to reduce the pilot's workload for powered-lift flight. Desired flying qualities characteristics are implemented through the utilization of an explicit model following flight control system. With the model following control system, the pilot commands the desired response (e.g., throttle commands vertical velocity in hover, instead of power lever angle). Design considerations for developing a multivariable model-following flight control system are presented in this paper. When the regulator gains are defined in terms of generalized controls, the design problem becomes how to best transform the generalized controls to aerodynamic control surface, thrust and thrust vectoring commands.

Vincent, James H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The short-term temperature response to smoke from oil fires

The short-term effect of smoke, similar to that being emitted from the Kuwaiti oil fields, on the ground temperature of the afffected region was investigated using a numerical model of atmospheric dynamics, aerosol microphysics, and radiative transfer similar to that used previosly by Westphal and Toon (1991). Results show that, after one diurnal cycle beneath smoke plumes of moderate visible absorption, ground cooling and ground warming were both possible; the response of the ground temperature and the boundary layer dynamics depended on the surface characteristics, with desert exhibiting the strongest cooling of all the land types used.

Westphal, Douglas L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Origin of orbital debris impacts on Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF) trailing surfaces

Orbital debris tracked by the US Space Command is mostly in near circular orbit around the Earth. If small debris were in the same types of orbits, there would be very few orbital debris impacts on the Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF's) trailing surfaces. However, at least 15 percent of the impacts found on the trailing A03 gold surface was found to be orbital debris impacts. This measurement suggests that the orbital distribution of small debris is not the same as that of larger debris. Although this is not a total surprise, since modelling of satellite breakups has predicted different distributions, it does raise questions as to what types of orbits could be responsible for these impacts. A model was developed to explain these LDEF results. The model calculates the expected debris impact crater distribution around LDEF, as a function of debris orbital parameters. The results show that only low inclination and highly elliptical orbits could be responsible for these impacts. The most common object left in this type of orbit is an orbital transfer stage, used by the US and ESA to place objects into geosynchronous orbit, and inclinations near 28 and 7 degrees for the US and ESA, respectively. Even large fragments from satellites, which break up in these types of orbits, are difficult to observe from the ground; consequently, little is known about the number and characteristics of breakups in these orbits. The LDEF data suggest that these objects are breaking up. The LDEF data also suggest that the ratio of the contribution of small debris from this type of orbit to the contribution from circular orbits is about an order of magnitude larger than the same ratio for debris tracked by the US Space Command.

Kessler, Donald J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Subsonic aerodynamic characteristics of a proposed advanced manned launch system orbiter configuration

The Advanced Manned Launch System is a proposed near-term technology, two-stage, fully reusable launch system that consists of an unmanned glide-back booster and a manned orbiter. An orbiter model that featured a large fuselage and an aft delta wing with tip fins was tested in the Langley 7- by 10-Foot High-Speed Tunnel. A crew cabin, large payload fairing, and crew access tunnel were mounted on the upper body. The results of the investigation indicated that the configuration was longitudinally stable to an angle of attack of about 6 deg about a center-of-gravity position of 0.7 body length. The model had an untrimmed lift-drag ratio of 6.6, but could not be trimmed at positive lift. The orbiter model was also directionally unstable. The payload fairing was responsible for about half the instability. The tip-fin controllers, which are designed as active controls to produce artificial directional stability, were effective in producing yawing moment, but sizable adverse rolling moment occurred at angles of attack above 6 deg. Differential deflection of the elevon surfaces was effective in producing rolling moment with only small values of adverse yawing moment.

Ware, George M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Refinements to SSiB with an Emphasis on Snow-Physics: Evaluation and Validation Using GSWP and Valdai Data

Refinements to the snow-physics scheme of SSiB (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model) are described and evaluated. The upgrades include a partial redesign of the conceptual architecture to better simulate the diurnal temperature of the snow surface. For a deep snowpack, there are two separate prognostic temperature snow layers - the top layer responds to diurnal fluctuations in the surface forcing, while the deep layer exhibits a slowly varying response. In addition, the use of a very deep soil temperature and a treatment of snow aging with its influence on snow density is parameterized and evaluated. The upgraded snow scheme produces better timing of snow melt in GSWP-style simulations using ISLSCP Initiative I data for 1987-1988 in the Russian Wheat Belt region. To simulate more realistic runoff in regions with high orographic variability, additional improvements are made to SSiB's soil hydrology. These improvements include an orography-based surface runoff scheme as well as interaction with a water table below SSiB's three soil layers. The addition of these parameterizations further help to simulate more realistic runoff and accompanying prognostic soil moisture fields in the GSWP-style simulations. In intercomparisons of the performance of the new snow-physics SSiB with its earlier versions using an 18-year single-site dataset from Valdai Russia, the version of SSiB described in this paper again produces the earliest onset of snow melt. Soil moisture and deep soil temperatures also compare favorably with observations.

Mocko, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Forced and Free Intra-Seasonal Variability Over the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by 10 AGCMs

This study examines intra-seasonal (20-70 day) variability in the South Asian monsoon region during 1997/98 in ensembles of 10 simulations with 10 different atmospheric general circulation models. The 10 ensemble members for each model are forced with the same observed weekly sea surface temperature (SST) but differ from each other in that they are started from different initial atmospheric conditions. The results show considerable differences between the models in the simulated 20-70 day variability, ranging from much weaker to much stronger than the observed. A key result is that the models do produce, to varying degrees, a response to the imposed weekly SST. The forced variability tends to be largest in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans where, for some models, it accounts for more than 1/4 of the 20-70 day intra-seasonal variability in the upper level velocity potential during these two years. A case study of a strong observed MJO (intraseasonal oscillation) event shows that the models produce an ensemble mean eastward propagating signal in the tropical precipitation field over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, similar to that found in the observations. The associated forced 200 mb velocity potential anomalies are strongly phase locked with the precipitation anomalies, propagating slowly to the east (about 5 m/s) with a local zonal wave number two pattern that is generally consistent with the developing observed MJO. The simulated and observed events are, however, approximately in quadrature, with the simulated response 2 leading by 5-10 days. The phase lag occurs because, in the observations, the positive SST anomalies develop upstream of the main convective center in the subsidence region of the MJO, while in the simulations, the forced component is in phase with the SST. For all the models examined here, the intraseasonal variability is dominated by the free (intra-ensemble) component. The results of our case study show that the free variability has a predominately zonal wave number one pattern, and has propagation speeds (10 - 15 m/s) that are more typical of observed MJO behavior away from the convectively active regions. The free variability appears to be synchronized with the forced response, at least, during the strong event examined here. The results of this study support the idea that coupling with SSTs plays an important, though probably not dominant, role in the MJO. The magnitude of the atmospheric response to the SST appears to be in the range of 15% - 30% of the 20-70 day variability over much of the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The results also highlight the need to use caution when interpreting atmospheric model simulations in which the prescribed SST resolve MJO time scales.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Precipitation Processes developed during ARM (1997), TOGA COARE(1992), GATE(1 974), SCSMEX(1998) and KWAJEX(1999): Consistent 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Real clouds and clouds systems are inherently three dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud system with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D simulations of these same cases. The reason for the strong similarity between the 2D and 3D CRM simulations is that the observed large-scale advective tendencies of potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum were used as the main forcing in both the 2D and 3D models. Interestingly, the 2D and 3D versions of the CRM used in CSU and U.K. Met Office showed significant differences in the rainfall and cloud statistics for three ARM cases. The major objectives of this project are to calculate and axamine: (1)the surface energy and water budgets, (2) the precipitation processes in the convective and stratiform regions, (3) the cloud upward and downward mass fluxes in the convective and stratiform regions; (4) cloud characteristics such as size, updraft intensity and lifetime, and (5) the entrainment and detrainment rates associated with clouds and cloud systems that developed in TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM and KWAJEX. Of special note is that the analyzed (model generated) data sets are all produced by the same current version of the GCE model, i.e. consistent model physics and configurations. Trajectory analyse and inert tracer calculation will be conducted to identify the differences and similarities in the organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Intercomparison of Atmospheric Radiation Schemes for the Lower Martian Atmosphere

Interpretation of the vast data flow from the recent and ongoing Mars missions requires extensive modeling activity to support the investigations and conclusions drawn from the observations. We have initiated a campaign to compare atmospheric radiation schemes for the lower Martian atmosphere with leastcompromise reference line-by-line calculations (Meadows and Crisp 1996, Crisp 1986). By using fixed reference conditions we are introducing an intercomparison framework to enable atmospheric modeling teams to compare their modeling results with the reference line-by-line calculations, and to improve their models. The atmosphere of Mars is thin and therefore its response to local radiative forcing is strong when compared to that of the Earth s troposphere. Airborne dust and also the water vapor give significant contributions to the radiative fluxes. Thus models of the Martian atmosphere should have fairly accurate radiative transfer (RT) algorithms. This is specifically important for the net radiative flux at the surface, which is the main driver for the surface temperature evolution, since the surface turbulent fluxes are small due to the thin atmosphere (e.g. Haberle et al. 1993, Savij arvi 1991a, Savij arvi 1991b, Savij arvi 1999). However, the accuracy of the RT schemes has not been rigorously tested in many cases as reference calculations have been rare. We introduce a set of reference cases for Martian atmospheric conditions with profiles for temperature, pressure, dust optical depth (Conrath 1975, Clancy et al. 1995, OckertBell et al. 1997, Smith et al. 2000), water, CO2,O3,CO and O2 (Table 1). The reference atmosphere uses a diurnally and globally averaged thermal structure derived from Mariner 9 IRIS observations acquired during late southern summer. Thermal structures for nighttime and daytime conditions will be included shortly. Computationally expensive reference simulations were performed by applying a spectrum resolving (line-by-line multiple scattering) model, SRM, to give the least-compromise base for comparisons. We call for other groups to join in future comparisons. This resembles the International Comparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models (ICRCCM; e.g. Ellingson and Fouquart 1991, Ellingson et al. 1991). The ICRCCM led to many improvements in the Earth GCM radiation codes. The intercomparison framework presented in this paper is a step toward that direction for Mars. We have already five modeling teams participating in this intercomparison exercice. Additional teams investigating the Martian atmosphere are cordially invited to join this effort of comparing the radiation schemes in fixed conditions. The results achieved will be reported and some additional features to be included in the intercomparison will be discussed.

A-M Harri↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modified Laser Flash Method for Thermal Properties Measurements and the Influence of Heat Convection

The study examined the effect of natural convection in applying the modified laser flash method to measure thermal properties of semiconductor melts. Common laser flash method uses a laser pulse to heat one side of a thin circular sample and measures the temperature response of the other side. Thermal diffusivity can be calculations based on a heat conduction analysis. For semiconductor melt, the sample is contained in a specially designed quartz cell with optical windows on both sides. When laser heats the vertical melt surface, the resulting natural convection can introduce errors in calculation based on heat conduction model alone. The effect of natural convection was studied by CFD simulations with experimental verification by temperature measurement. The CFD results indicated that natural convection would decrease the time needed for the rear side to reach its peak temperature, and also decrease the peak temperature slightly in our experimental configuration. Using the experimental data, the calculation using only heat conduction model resulted in a thermal diffusivity value is about 7.7% lower than that from the model with natural convection. Specific heat capacity was about the same, and the difference is within 1.6%, regardless of heat transfer models.

Lin, Bochuan↗

NASA NTRS2004

Validation of the Poisson Stochastic Radiative Transfer Model

A new approach to validation of the Poisson stochastic radiative transfer method is proposed. In contrast to other validations of stochastic models, the main parameter of the Poisson model responsible for cloud geometrical structure - cloud aspect ratio - is determined entirely by matching measurements and calculations of the direct solar radiation. If the measurements of the direct solar radiation is unavailable, it was shown that there is a range of the aspect ratios that allows the stochastic model to accurately approximate the average measurements of surface downward and cloud top upward fluxes. Realizations of the fractionally integrated cascade model are taken as a prototype of real measurements.

Zhuravleva, Tatiana↗

NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity of Seawater Oxygen Isotopes to Climatic and Tectonic Boundary Conditions in an Early Paleogene Simulation with GISS ModelE-R

An isotope-enabled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GISS ModelE -R) is used to estimate the spatial gradients of the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (delta O-18(sub sw), where delta is the deviation from a known reference material in per mil) during the early Paleogene (45.65 Ma). Understanding the response of delta O-18(sub sw) to changes in climatic and tectonic boundary conditions is important because records of carbonate delta O-18 document changes in hydrology, as well as changes in temperature and global ice -volume. We present results from an early Paleogene configuration of ModelE -R which indicate that spatial gradients of surface ocean delta O-18(sub sw) during this period could have been significantly different to those in the modern ocean. The differences inferred from ModelE -R are sufficient to change early Paleogene sea surface temperature estimates derived from primary carbonate delta O-18 signatures by more than +/-2 C in large areas of the ocean. In the North Atlantic, Indian, and Southern Oceans, the differences in d18Osw inferred from our simulation with ModelE -R are in direct contrast with those from another d18O ]tracing model study which used different, but equally plausible, early Paleogene boundary conditions. The large differences in delta O-18(sub sw) between preindustrial and early Paleogene simulations, and between models, emphasizes the sensitivity of d18Osw to climatic and tectonic boundary conditions. For this reason, absolute estimates of Eocene/ Paleocene temperature derived from carbonate delta O-18 alone are likely to have larger uncertainties than are usually assumed.

Roberts, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation and Sensitivity Analyses of Arc-Jet Performance of Woven Thermal Protection Entry Systems

A material response model is developed for the determination of erosion rates and thermal response of woven materials to enable accurate thermal protection material sizing and future missions to Venus and giant planets. The stagnation-point thermal response is further evaluated using a Monte Carlo global sensitivity analysis to determine the interactions between key parameters in the material surface energy balance, such as, convective blowing correction parameter and weave material properties including isotropic and orthotropic thermal conductivites. The time-accurate material response for the dual layer weave erosion and surface temperatures show excellent agreement with stagnation flat face arc-jet tests involving time-varying aeroheating-cooling cycles. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis technique was used to address challenges in thermal protection sizing for the Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT) system, a low ballistic coefficient hypersonic decelerator. The results represent new correlations for such weaves involving Carbon-air oxidation equilibrium chemistry. Through the multi-variate regression analyses and uncertainty rankings performed, only three properties were found to contribute to the transient thermal response of the gore, with emissivity contributing to nearly 95% of the total output uncertainty.

Pratibha Raghunandan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation and Sensitivity Analyses of Arc-Jet Performance of Woven Thermal Protection Entry Systems

Pratibha Raghunandan↗

NASA NTRS2010

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗