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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Allowing for Horizontally Heterogeneous Clouds and Generalized Overlap in an Atmospheric GCM

While fully accounting for 3D effects in Global Climate Models (GCMs) appears not realistic at the present time for a variety of reasons such as computational cost and unavailability of 3D cloud structure in the models, incorporation in radiation schemes of subgrid cloud variability described by one-point statistics is now considered feasible and is being actively pursued. This development has gained momentum once it was demonstrated that CPU-intensive spectrally explicit Independent Column Approximation (lCA) can be substituted by stochastic Monte Carlo ICA (McICA) calculations where spectral integration is accomplished in a manner that produces relatively benign random noise. The McICA approach has been implemented in Goddard's GEOS-5 atmospheric GCM as part of the implementation of the RRTMG radiation package. GEOS-5 with McICA and RRTMG can handle horizontally variable clouds which can be set via a cloud generator to arbitrarily overlap within the full spectrum of maximum and random both in terms of cloud fraction and layer condensate distributions. In our presentation we will show radiative and other impacts of the combined horizontal and vertical cloud variability on multi-year simulations of an otherwise untuned GEOS-5 with fixed SSTs. Introducing cloud horizontal heterogeneity without changing the mean amounts of condensate reduces reflected solar and increases thermal radiation to space, but disproportionate changes may increase the radiative imbalance at TOA. The net radiation at TOA can be modulated by allowing the parameters of the generalized overlap and heterogeneity scheme to vary, a dependence whose behavior we will discuss. The sensitivity of the cloud radiative forcing to the parameters of cloud horizontal heterogeneity and comparisons of CERES-derived forcing will be shown.

Lee, D.↗

Investigation of Optimal Digital Image Correlation Patterns for Deformation Measurement

Digital image correlation (DIC) relies on the surface texture of a specimen to measure deformation. When the specimen itself has little or no texture, a pattern is applied to the surface which deforms with the specimen and acts as an artificial surface texture. Because the applied pattern has an effect on the accuracy of DIC, an ideal pattern is sought for which the error introduced into DIC measurements is minimal. In this work, a study is performed in which several DIC pattern quality metrics from the literature are correlated to DIC measurement error. The resulting correlations give insight on the optimality of DIC patterns in general. Optimizations are then performed to produce patterns which are well suited for DIC. These patterns are tested to show their relative benefits. Chief among these benefits are a reduction in error of approximately 30 with respect to a randomly generated pattern.

Bomarito, G. F.↗

Temporal variations of particle fluxes in the deep subtropical and tropical North Atlantic - Eulerian versus Lagrangian effects

The flux of particles measured by sediment traps in the deep water of the Sargasso Sea and western tropical North Atlantic undergoes pronounced temporal variation. In the Sargasso Sea the variability is largely due to seasonal changes in mixed-layer depth and attendant changes in primary productivity affecting a wide region. By contrast, the variability in the western tropical Atlantic appears to be caused by patches of elevated nutrient and pigment concentrations which have their origin in the plumes of the Amazon and Orinoco rivers. Coastal zone color scanner scenes demonstrate the great seasonal and interannual differences in the direction and dispersal patterns of the plumes. The river plumes break up into irregular patches which may pass through the catchment area of a sediment trap at varying rates, thereby creating the impression of almost random temporal flux variability at a fixed trap site.

Deuser, W. G.↗

A model for simulating random atmospheres as a function of latitude, season, and time

An empirical stochastic computer model was developed with the capability of generating random thermodynamic profiles of the atmosphere below an altitude of 99 km which are characteristic of any given season, latitude, and time of day. Samples of temperature, density, and pressure profiles generated by the model are statistically similar to measured profiles in a data base of over 6000 rocket and high-altitude atmospheric soundings; that is, means and standard deviations of modeled profiles and their vertical gradients are in close agreement with data. Model-generated samples can be used for Monte Carlo simulations of aircraft or spacecraft trajectories to predict or account for the effects on a vehicle's performance of atmospheric variability. Other potential uses for the model are in simulating pollutant dispersion patterns, variations in sound propagation, and other phenomena which are dependent on atmospheric properties, and in developing data-reduction software for satellite monitoring systems.

Campbell, J. W.↗

Stochastic damage evolution in textile laminates

A probabilistic model utilizing random material characteristics to predict damage evolution in textile laminates is presented. Model is based on a division of each ply into two sublaminas consisting of cells. The probability of cell failure is calculated using stochastic function theory and maximal strain failure criterion. Three modes of failure, i.e. fiber breakage, matrix failure in transverse direction, as well as matrix or interface shear cracking, are taken into account. Computed failure probabilities are utilized in reducing cell stiffness based on the mesovolume concept. A numerical algorithm is developed predicting the damage evolution and deformation history of textile laminates. Effect of scatter of fiber orientation on cell properties is discussed. Weave influence on damage accumulation is illustrated with the help of an example of a Kevlar/epoxy laminate.

Dzenis, Yuris A.↗

Employing Sensitivity Derivatives for Robust Optimization under Uncertainty in CFD

A robust optimization is demonstrated on a two-dimensional inviscid airfoil problem in subsonic flow. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed flow parameters (input variables), an approximate first-order statistical moment method is employed to represent the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code outputs as expected values with variances. These output quantities are used to form the objective function and constraints. The constraints are cast in probabilistic terms; that is, the probability that a constraint is satisfied is greater than or equal to some desired target probability. Gradient-based robust optimization of this stochastic problem is accomplished through use of both first and second-order sensitivity derivatives. For each robust optimization, the effect of increasing both input standard deviations and target probability of constraint satisfaction are demonstrated. This method provides a means for incorporating uncertainty when considering small deviations from input mean values.

Newman, Perry A.↗

Dynamic Snap-Through of Thermally Buckled Structures by a Reduced Order Method

The goal of this investigation is to further develop nonlinear modal numerical simulation methods for application to geometrically nonlinear response of structures exposed to combined high intensity random pressure fluctuations and thermal loadings. The study is conducted on a flat aluminum beam, which permits a comparison of results obtained by a reduced-order analysis with those obtained from a numerically intensive simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom. A uniformly distributed thermal loading is first applied to investigate the dynamic instability associated with thermal buckling. A uniformly distributed random loading is added to investigate the combined thermal-acoustic response. In the latter case, three types of response characteristics are considered, namely: (i) small amplitude vibration around one of the two stable buckling equilibrium positions, (ii) intermittent snap-through response between the two equilibrium positions, and (iii) persistent snap-through response between the two equilibrium positions. For the reduced-order analysis, four categories of modal basis functions are identified including those having symmetric transverse, anti-symmetric transverse, symmetric in-plane, and anti-symmetric in-plane displacements. The effect of basis selection on the quality of results is investigated for the dynamic thermal buckling and combined thermal-acoustic response. It is found that despite symmetric geometry, loading, and boundary conditions, the anti-symmetric transverse and symmetric in-plane modes must be included in the basis as they participate in the snap-through behavior.

Przekop, Adam↗

A muiti-mode modulation and demodulation system and method

An improved system and method for modulation, demodulation and signal processing for single sideband communications systems which provides correction for the adverse effects of rapid fading characteristics in a mobile environment. The system provides modulation through a modified Weaver modulator in which the audio input is processed to produce an output in the form of an upper sideband having a pilot tone in a spectral gap at approximately midband. The receiver includes a modified Weaver demodulator and a correction signal generating circuit which processes the received faded audio input and pilot tone to produce a correcting signal. The correcting signal is mixed with the received signal to regenerate unfaded versions of both the signal and pilot by removing random amplitude and phase modulations imposed on them by the fading.

Stevenson, Carl R.↗

Investigation of Atmospheric Boundary-Layer Effects on Launch-Vehicle Ground Wind Loads

A launch vehicle ground-wind-loads program is underway at the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel. The objectives are to quantify key aerodynamic and structural characteristics that impact the occurrence of large wind-induced oscillations of a launch vehicle when exposed to ground winds prior to launch. Of particular interest is the dynamic response of a launch vehicle when a von Kármán vortex street forms in the wake of the vehicle resulting in quasiperiodic lift and drag forces. Vehicle response to these quasiperiodic forces can become quite large when the frequency of vortex shedding nears that of a lowly-damped structural mode thereby exciting a resonant response. Wind approaching the vehicle can be characterized by a varying speed with height and turbulence content. The combination of both the varying speed and turbulence content is referred to herein as the atmospheric boundary-layer. The importance of the atmospheric boundary-layer upon launch vehicle wind-induced oscillation response has long been questioned, and its effects are not well understood. Although there are several facilities around the world dedicated to replicating atmospheric boundary layers, the development of such a boundary layer in a wind tunnel capable of producing flight-representative Reynolds numbers for aeroelastically-scaled launch vehicle models has only recently been accomplished. The NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel is capable of simulating flight-representative Reynolds numbers of launch vehicles on the pad and is uniquely capable of replicating many fluid-structure scaling parameters typical of aeroelastic tests. Recent test efforts successfully developed representative atmospheric boundary-layers for three launch sites in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel, thereby allowing all known aerodynamic and fluid-structure coupling parameters to be simultaneously simulated for those sites. Dynamic aeroelastically-scaled models representative of typical large launch vehicles were constructed for testing. Aeroelastic scaling includes matching geometry, mode shapes, reduced frequencies, damping, running mass ratios, and running stiffness ratios. The models were tested in smooth uniform flow and then immersed in the atmospheric boundary-layer for comparison of these effects. Dynamic data were acquired measuring unsteady pressure, acceleration, and base bending moment. It was discovered that peak dynamic loads resulting from resonant wind-induced oscillation response are similar when acquired in either smooth uniform flow or an atmospheric boundary-layer. This indicates that resonant lock-in events are minimally impacted by representative turbulence and/or wind profile. Alternately, nonresonant wind-induced oscillation response events are stronger when acquired in an atmospheric boundary-layer. This indicates that a lowly-damped structural response will increase when exposed to an increased magnitude of random excitation, which is consistent with historical comparisons. Loads created by the resonant response events were substantially stronger than those from the nonresonant response events. Therefore, if testing is done to simply identify worst-case conditions and load magnitude, then smooth uniform flow is likely an adequate test technique. However, if nonresonant response loads are of primary interest, then atmospheric boundary-layer simulation is required.

Thomas G Ivanco↗

Graph Representation Learning for Dengue Forecasting

In 2017, the largest recorded dengue outbreak in Sri Lanka’s history occurred. Since then, dengue has continued to threaten national health across Sri Lanka. The development of an effective Early Warning System (EWS) for dengue outbreaks is essential for Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Health to take preventative measures. We propose the use of Graph Neural Networks as EWS. Using earth observational data from NASAs global satellites and dengue incidence data from Sri Lanka s Ministry of Health, we developed a series of traditional and graph representation EWS to forecast Dengue cases across Sri Lanka’s 25 districts between 2013 and 2022. We demonstrate empirically that Graph Neural Networks which incorporate spatiotemporal relations significantly outperform traditional EWS such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Our source code is available on GitHub and will be provided in the final submission.

Graph Neural Networks↗

The measurement of driver describing functions in simulated steering control tasks

Measurements of driver describing functions in steering control tasks have been made using a driving simulator. The task was to regulate against a random crosswind gust input on a straight roadway, in order to stay in the center of the lane. Although driving is a multiloop task in general, the forcing function and situation were configured so that an inner-loop visual cue feedback of heading angle of heading rate would dominate, and the driver's response was interpreted to be primarily single-loop. The driver describing functions were measured using an STI describing function analyzer. Three replications for each subject showed good repeatability within a subject. There were some intersubject differences as expected, but the crossover frequencies, effective time delays, and stability margins were generally consistent with the prior data and models for similar manual control tasks. The results further confirm the feasibility of measuring human operator response properties in nominal control tasks with full (real-world) visual field displays.

Weir, D. H.↗

The effects of localized damping on structural response

The effect of localized structural damping on the excitability of higher order normal modes of the large space telescope was investigated. A preprocessor computer program was developed to incorporate Voigt structural joint damping models in a NASTRAN finite-element dynamic model. A postprocessor computer program was developed to select critical modes for low-frequency attitude control problems and for higher frequency fine-stabilization problems. The mode selection is accomplished by ranking the flexible modes based on coefficients for rate gyro, position gyro, and optical sensors, and on image-plane motions due to sinusoidal or random power spectral density force and torque inputs.

Merchant, D. H.↗

Microwave solar limb brightening

Previous models of microwave limb brightening have omitted the alignment of spicules along supergranule boundaries, have neglected the high temperature sheath around spicules, and have assumed an interspicular medium which was averaged over chromospheric network and nonnetwork regions. A model is presented here which includes these factors. Constraining the model to conform to results from earlier UV and optical studies in effect leaves two free parameters: the temperature at the core of the spicules and (at solar minimum) the interspicular chromospheric network density model of the lower transition zone. The absence of limb brightening at the short millimeter wavelengths implies a temperature at the core of the spicules less than approximately 6000 K. Differences between the model and certain deconvolved observations near 9 mm are expected as a consequence of an extension of emission beyond the optical limb, predicted by the model, which affects the accuracy of the deconvolution technique. Unlike models which assume homogeneous spicules in a random distribution, the model presented here does not require an abnormally high spicule area.

Ahmad, I. A.↗

A new continuum model for suspensions of gyrotactic micro-organisms

A new continuum model is formulated for dilute suspensions of swimming micro-organisms with asymmetric mass distributions. Account is taken of randomness in a cell's swimming direction, p, by postulating that the probability density function for p satisfies a Fokker-Planck equation analogous to that obtained for colloid suspensions in the presence of rotational Brownian motion. The deterministic torques on a cell, viscous and gravitational, are balanced by diffusion, represented by an isotropic rotary diffusivity Dr, which is unknown a priori, but presumably reflects stochastic influences on the cell's internal workings. When the Fokker-Planck equation is solved, macroscopic quantities such as the average cell velocity Vc, the particle diffusivity tensor D and the effective stress tensor sigma can be computed; Vc and D are required in the cell conservation equation, and sigma in the momentum equation. The Fokker-Planck equation contains two dimensionless parameters, lambda and epsilon; lambda is the ratio of the rotary diffusion time Dr-1 to the torque relaxation time B (balancing gravitational and viscous torques), while epsilon is a scale for the local vorticity or strain rate made dimensionless with B. In this paper we solve the Fokker-Planck equation exactly for epsilon = 0 (lambda arbitrary) and also obtain the first-order solution for small epsilon. Using experimental data on Vc and D obtained with the swimming alga, Chlamydomonas nivalis, in the absence of bulk flow, the epsilon = 0 results can be used to estimate the value of lambda for that species (lambda approximately 2.2; Dr approximately 0.13 s-1). The continuum model for small epsilon is then used to reanalyse the instability of a uniform suspension, previously investigated by Pedley, Hill & Kessler (1988). The only qualitatively different result is that there no longer seem to be circumstances in which disturbances with a non-zero vertical wavenumber are more unstable than purely horizontal disturbances. On the way, it is demonstrated that the only significant contribution to sigma, other than the basic Newtonian stress, is that derived from the stresslets associated with the cells' intrinsic swimming motions.

NASA Discipline Number 28-20↗

Urban Air Mobility: Predictive Modelling on the Behavior of Air-Service Bookings in Metropolitan Areas

The demand for a ride to work without running into the inefficiencies of traffic in a bustling, metropolitan area beckons for a system to tackle on-the ground traffic congestion, thus fueling the need for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). The instant gratification culture, notably its effect on Generation Z, has given way to the nature of impulsive decision making. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis, with its use of tap-to-gratify technology, highlights passengers preferring late booking. This last-minute airport reorganization crisis spearheaded our research goal to create a more user-personalized assessment of cancellation rates. Our research highlights that there will be a market in the 2030s for UAM, short-distance air transportation, and the world must prepare for the challenges that come with this new market. Through a two-part model, we obtained two randomized sets of profiles of user-specific and ridership attributes and their relationship with cancellations. Recommendations for future research include factoring this personalized aspect into cancellation projections to provide reasoned user discounts as well as a remedy for the scheduling chaos that stems from the airport organizational crisis.

Srushti Adesara↗

Algorithmic Analysis of the Effect of Human Behavior on Future Urban Air Mobility Operations

The demand for a ride to work without running into the inefficiencies of traffic in a bustling, metropolitan area beckons for a system to tackle on-the ground traffic congestion, thus fueling the need for Urban Air Mobility (UAM). The instant gratification culture, notably its effect on Generation Z, has given way to the nature of impulsive decision making. The 2020 COVID-19 crisis, with its use of tap-to-gratify technology, highlights passengers preferring late booking. This last-minute airport reorganization crisis spearheaded our research goal to create a more user-personalized assessment of cancellation rates. Our research highlights that there will be a market in the 2030s for UAM, short-distance air transportation, and the world must prepare for the challenges that come with this new market. Through a two-part model, we obtained two randomized sets of profiles of user-specific and ridership attributes and their relationship with cancellations. Recommendations for future research include factoring this personalized aspect into cancellation projections to provide reasoned user discounts as well as a remedy for the scheduling chaos that stems from the airport organizational crisis.

Harbani Jaggi↗

Probabilistic finite elements

In the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), finite element methods have been efficiently combined with second-order perturbation techniques to provide an effective method for informing the designer of the range of response which is likely in a given problem. The designer must provide as input the statistical character of the input variables, such as yield strength, load magnitude, and Young's modulus, by specifying their mean values and their variances. The output then consists of the mean response and the variance in the response. Thus the designer is given a much broader picture of the predicted performance than with simply a single response curve. These methods are applicable to a wide class of problems, provided that the scale of randomness is not too large and the probabilistic density functions possess decaying tails. By incorporating the computational techniques we have developed in the past 3 years for efficiency, the probabilistic finite element methods are capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Sample results for an elastic-plastic ten-bar structure and an elastic-plastic plane continuum with a circular hole subject to cyclic loadings with the yield stress on the random field are given.

Belytschko, Ted↗

Spacecraft particulate contaminant redistribution

This paper describes analyses that were performed in support of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST)) particulate contamination control effort. The specific problems addressed include extension of available particle removal data to launch acoustic and random vibration conditions, development of an engineering model for transport of suspended particulates by airflow and in the presence of vehicle acceleration, turbulent diffusion, and migration of particulates over vibrating surfaces, and integration of the various models into a code that could be used to generate contamination level estimates for the HST primary mirror and other critical surfaces for the HST mission phases. The overall redistribution calculations were made assuming a specified initial contaminant distribution in terms of MIL STD 1246A levels, and using predicted vibration data for the various HST surfaces and mission phases. As expected, the effects of airflow were found to be significant, particularly for the larger particles. Particles smaller than about 20 microns did not participate appreciably in the redistribution.

Klavins, A.↗