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On Bayesian Inductive Inference & Predictive Estimation

We investigate Bayesian inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME) as methods for doing inference under uncertainty. This investigation is primarily through concrete examples that have been previously investigated in the literature. We find that it is possible to do Bayesian inference and PME inference using the same information, despite claims to the contrary, but that the results are not directly comparable. This is because Bayesian inference yields a probability density function (pdf) over the unknown model parameters, whereas PME yields point estimates. If mean estimates are extracted from the Bayesian pdfs, the resulting parameter estimates can differ radically from the PME values and also from the Maximum Likelihood values. We conclude that these differences are due to the Bayesian inference not assuming anything beyond the given prior probabilities and the data, whereas PME implicitly assumes that the given constraints are the only constraints that are operating. Since this assumption can be wrong, PME values may have to be revised when subsequent data shows evidence for more constraints. The entropy concentration previously "proved" by E. T. Jaynes is shown to be in error. Further, we show that PME is a generalized form of independence assumption, and so can be a very powerful method of inference when the variables being investigated are largely independent of each other.

Cheeseman, Peter↗

Rapid subsidence over oil fields measured by SAR

The Lost Hills and Belridge oil felds are in the San Joaquin Valley, California. The major oil reservoir is high porosity and low permeability diatomite. Extraction of large volumes from shallow depths causes reduction in pore pressure and subsequent compaction, forming a surface subsidence bowl. We measure this subsidence from space using interferometric analysis of SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data collected by the European Space Agency Remote Sensing Satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2). Maximum subsidence rates are as high as 40 mm in 35 days or > 400 mm/yr, measured from interferograms with time separations ranging from one day to 26 months. The 8- and 26-month interferograms contain areas where the subsidence gradient exceeds the measurement possible with ERS SAR, but shows increased detail in areas of less rapid subsidence. Synoptic mapping of subsidence distribution from satellite data powerfully complements ground-based techniques, permits measurements where access is difficult, and aids identification of underlying causes.

synthetic aperture radar remote sensing oil fields↗

Spacecraft Conceptual Design for Returning Entire Near-Earth Asteroids

In situ resource utilization (ISRU) in general, and asteroid mining in particular are ideas that have been around for a long time, and for good reason. It is clear that ultimately human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit will have to utilize the material resources available in space. Historically, the lack of sufficiently capable in-space transportation has been one of the key impediments to the harvesting of near-Earth asteroid resources. With the advent of high-power (or order 40 kW) solar electric propulsion systems, that impediment is being removed. High-power solar electric propulsion (SEP) would be enabling for the exploitation of asteroid resources. The design of a 40-kW end-of-life SEP system is presented that could rendezvous with, capture, and subsequently transport a 1,000-metric-ton near-Earth asteroid back to cislunar space. The conceptual spacecraft design was developed by the Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at the Glenn Research Center in collaboration with the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) team assembled to investigate the feasibility of an asteroid retrieval mission. Returning such an object to cislunar space would enable astronaut crews to inspect, sample, dissect, and ultimately determine how to extract the desired materials from the asteroid. This process could jump-start the entire ISRU industry.

asteroid retrieval↗

A Field-Deployable Wireless Data Acquisition System for Ground-Test Arrays

This paper describes the development, characterization, and deployment of a field-deployable wireless data acquisition system for ground-test arrays, applicable in noise-source localization or beamforming measurements such as those encountered during airframe noise flyover measurement tests. The system design is enabled by commercially available, low-power Internet of Things (IoT) processors and Wi-Fi communication components. Time is synchronized across the array wirelessly by leveraging the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) time provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS). Initial laboratory characterization of the system demonstrated its ability to meet acoustic bandwidth, dynamic range, time synchronization, environmental, and battery life requirements for typical ground-test array deployments. A successful system deployment at NASA Langley was performed that included measurement of a suspended elevated static noise source, and Uncrewed Aerial System (UAS) vehicle measurements using a quadcopter operated both in hover mode and forward flight. Beamform analysis of the acquired data showed an excellent ability of the array to extract accurate sound pressure levels from the suspended source. Synchronization of the array and vehicle GPS timecodes allowed the ability to extract acoustic signatures from the UAS vehicle during hover and forward flight maneuvers over the array. These results validate that the use of a high channel count wireless array is advantageous in airframe and propulsion noise flyover test campaigns.

wireless↗

Measurements of Beam Spin Asymmetries in p+p0 and p´p0 Dihadron Production at CLAS12

Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering (SIDIS) is a powerful experimental tool for studying the internal structure and dynamics of the proton, revealing how quarks and gluons are distributed and interact within it. SIDIS describes a process where an elec tron scatters off one of the constituent quarks within the proton, causing it to undergo hadronization, creating multiple hadrons in the final state. Through factorization, the full process can be split into probabilistic components: one which describes the internal structure of the proton using Parton Distribution Functions (PDFs), and another which describes the hadronization process using Fragmentation Functions (FFs). These functions are non-perturbative quantities of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), meaning they cannot be calculated directly from first principles and must instead be extracted from experimental measurements. Acommon approach for accessing PDFs and FFs using SIDIS is to measure asymmetries. In this context, asymmetries correspond to subtle differences in the angular distribution of outgoing particles that arise when the spin orientation of the incoming beam or target is reversed. Because many of these effects only appear when spin is involved, they isolate specific, nuanced properties of the proton’s spin-structure that are otherwise hidden in spin averaged measurements. In practice, they show up as specific azimuthal modulations (e.g., sin ¿R, sin(¿h ´ ¿R)), whose amplitudes isolate convolutions of PDFs and FFs at leading and subleading twist. Non-zero asymmetries of these angular distributions can be traced back to unique combinations of PDFs and FFs, offering a way to probe them directly. In this work, we measure SIDIS by analyzing high energy electron-proton scattering events using the CLAS12 detector at Jefferson Lab. This study focuses on subset of SIDIS referred to as dihadron SIDIS, where pairs of hadrons — here p+p0 and p´p0 — are observed. We analyzed these dihadrons using detector data collected during Fall 2018 and Spring 2019, where longitudinally polarized electrons from the CEBAF accelerator were incident on a liquid hydrogen target. A photon classifier using a Gradient Boosted Trees (GBTs) architecture was trained using Monte Carlo simulations to reduce the amount of iv false combinatorial background p0’s. When deployed on experimental data, the model in creases our dihadron statistics by up to five-fold compared to previous CLAS12 p0 analyses. This work reports the first measurements of beam spin asymmetries for p+p0 and p´p0 dihadron production in SIDIS. The measured asymmetries offer new insights to the spin-dependent structure and dynamics within the proton, as well as the spin-dependent properties of quark fragmentation. Non-zero twist-3 sin¿R amplitudes are observed, pro viding sensitivity to the subleading twist PDF e(x). The PDF e(x) encodes quark-gluon correlations within the proton — a property that is otherwise inaccessible at leading twist. Additionally, this work measured significant twist-2 modulations carried by sin(¿h ´ ¿R) and sin(2¿h ´2¿R), providing experimental access to the helicity dihadron fragmentation function (DiFF) GK 1 . Because there is no equivalent quark helicity-dependent FF in single pion SIDIS, the DiFF GK 1 offers a unique lens into novel spin-dependent fragmentation. For instance, the twist-2 modulations observed in this study are enhanced by vector mesons created during fragmentation — a behavior predicted by phenomenological models. This study broadens our understanding of dihadron fragmentation, revealing new details about the flavor and charge dependence of hadronization.

Matousek, Gregory [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United ↗

Thermal Transport and Mechanical Stress Mapping of a Compression Bonded GaN/Diamond Interface for Vertical Power Devices

Bonding diamond to the back side of gallium nitride (GaN) electronics has been shown to improve thermal management in lateral devices; however, engineering challenges remain with the bonding process and characterizing the bond quality for vertical device architectures. Here, in this study, integration of these two materials is achieved by room-temperature compression bonding centimeter-scale GaN and a diamond die via an intermetallic bonding layer of Ti/Au. Recent attempts at GaN/diamond bonding have utilized a modified surface activation bonding (SAB) method, which requires Ar fast atom bombardment immediately followed by bonding within the same tool under ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) conditions. The method presented here does not require a dedicated SAB tool yet still achieves bonding via a room-temperature metal–metal compression process. Imaging of the buried interface and the total bonding area is achieved via transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and confocal acoustic scanning microscopy (C-SAM), respectively. The thermal transport quality of the bond is extracted from spatially resolved frequency-domain thermoreflectance (FDTR) with the bonded areas boasting a thermal boundary conductance of >100 MW/m 2 ·K. Additionally, Raman maps of GaN near the GaN–diamond interface reveal a low level of compressive stress, <80 MPa, in well-bonded regions. FDTR and Raman were coutilized to map these buried interfaces and revealed some poor thermally bonded areas bordered by high-stress regions, highlighting the importance of spatial sampling for a complete picture of bond quality. Overall, this work demonstrates a novel method for thermal management in vertical GaN devices that maintains low intrinsic stresses while boasting high thermal boundary conductances.

Raman↗

Nuclear Power Fault Diagnostics and Preventative Maintenance Optimization NPIC presentation

The nuclear industry is beginning to see reactors shut down—even after their operating licenses have been extended—because they are not economically competitive with other energy sources. These early closures happen primarily due to economic reasons, despite excellent safety records. Therefore, it is imperative to reduce costs in order to prevent these early closures. One of the contributors to these economic reasons is the large operations and maintenance costs. This paper showcases recent research on advanced fault diagnostics techniques and preventative maintenance optimization (PMO) for reducing NPP maintenance costs. Specifically, it focuses on the feedwater and condensate system (FWCS) for both pressurized- and boiling-water reactor (BWR) systems. The computerized maintenance management system (CMMS), which contains the plant’s digital record of all corrective maintenance (CM) and preventative maintenance (PM) work orders, provided the ground truth for locating potential faults and labeling the process data as either healthy or faulted. Various feature extraction techniques were used to further differentiate the faulted data from the healthy data. Through a cross-validation procedure, support vectors machines were used to label other test sets of process data as either healthy or faulted. With relatively few faults identified in the BWR system, the potential for PMO opens up, since an unnecessary amount of PM leads to inflated maintenance costs. The steps for PMO are summarized, from component health determinations to recommendations for action. An example of PMO assessment is presented for condensate pumps, condensate booster pumps, and the respective motors that drive them.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A guideline to document occupant behavior models for advanced building controls

The availability of computational power, and a wealth of data from sensors have boosted the development of model-based predictive control for smart and effective control of advanced buildings in the last decade. More recently occupant-behavior models have been developed for including people in the building control loops. However, while important objectives of scientific research are reproducibility and replicability of results, not all information is available from published documents. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a guideline for a thorough and standardized occupant-behavior model documentation. For that purpose, the literature screening for the existing occupant behavior models in building control was conducted, and the occupant behavior modeling processes were studied to extract practices and gaps for each of the following phases: problem statement, data collection, and preprocessing, model development, model evaluation, and model implementation. Here, the literature screening pointed out that the current state-of-the-art on model documentation shows little unification, which poses a particular burden for the model application and replication in field studies. In addition to the standardized model documentation, this work presented a model-evaluation schema that enabled benchmarking of different models in field settings as well as the recommendations on how OB models are integrated with the building system.

Building control↗

Application of Portable Parallelization Strategies for GPUs on track reconstruction kernels

Utilizing the computational power of GPUs is one of the key ingredients to meet the computing challenges presented to the next generation of High-Energy Physics (HEP) experiments. Unlike CPUs, developing software for GPUs often involves using architecturespecific programming languages promoted by the GPU vendors and hence limits the platform that the code can run on. Various portability solutions have been developed to achieve portable, performant software across different GPU vendors. Given the rapid evolution of these portability solutions, an early adoption of them in simple HEP testbed applications will help us understand the strengths and weaknesses of respective approaches.We apply several portability solutions, including Alpaka, Kokkos, SYCL and std::execution::par, on kernels for track propagation extracted from the mkFit project. We report on the development experience of the same application with different portability solutions, as well as their performance on GPUs, measured as the throughput of the kernels, from different manufacturers such as NVIDIA, AMD and Intel.

Kwok, Martin [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000286936146)↗

Quantum embedding study of strain- and electric-field-induced Stark effects on the NV - center in diamond

The NV - color center in diamond has been demonstrated as a powerful nanosensor for quantum metrology due to the sensitivity of its optical and spin properties to external electric, magnetic, and strain fields. In view of these applications, we use quantum embedding to derive a many-body description of strain- and electric-field-induced Stark effects on the NV - center. Here, we quantify how strain longitudinal to the axis of NV - shifts the excited states in energy, while strain with a component transverse to the NV - axis splits the degeneracies of the 3 E and 1 E states. The largest effects are for the optically relevant 3 E manifold, which splits into E x and E y with transverse strain. From these responses we extract strain susceptibilities for the E x/y states within the quasilinear regime. Additionally, we study the many-body dipole matrix elements of the NV - and find a permanent dipole 1.6 D at zero strain, which is somewhat smaller than that obtained from recent density functional theory calculations. We also determine the transition dipole between the E x and E y and how it evolves with strain.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Neutral thermospheric temperature from ion concentration measurements

A technique for extracting information on neutral temperature from in situ F region measurements of O(+) and H(+) ion concentrations is analyzed and evaluated. Advantage is taken of the condition of charge-exchange equilibrium of these species in the neighborhood of 320 km to infer the associated relative abundances of neutral oxygen and hydrogen. Results are shown to be generally consistent with other concurrent in situ measurements.

Breig, E. L.↗

MHD channel performance for potential early commercial MHD power plants

The commercial viability of full and part load early commercial MHD power plants is examined. The load conditions comprise a mass flow of 472 kg/sec in the channel, Rosebud coal, 34% by volume oxygen in the oxidizer preheated to 922 K, and a one percent by mass seeding with K. The full load condition is discussed in terms of a combined cycle plant with optimized electrical output by the MHD channel. Various electrical load parameters, pressure ratios, and magnetic field profiles are considered for a baseload MHD generator, with a finding that a decelerating flow rate yields slightly higher electrical output than a constant flow rate. Nominal and part load conditions are explored, with a reduced gas mass flow rate and an enriched oxygen content. An enthalpy extraction of 24.6% and an isentropic efficiency of 74.2% is predicted for nominal operation of a 526 MWe MHD generator, with higher efficiencies for part load operation.

Swallom, D. W.↗

Preliminary results on noncollocated torque control of space robot actuators

In the Space Station era, more operations will be performed robotically in space in the areas of servicing, assembly, and experiment tending among others. These robots may have various sets of requirements for accuracy, speed, and force generation, but there will be design constraints such as size, mass, and power dissipation limits. For actuation, a leading motor candidate is a dc brushless type, and there are numerous potential drive trains each with its own advantages and disadvantages. This experiment uses a harmonic drive and addresses some inherent limitations, namely its backdriveability and low frequency structural resonances. These effects are controlled and diminished by instrumenting the actuator system with a torque transducer on the output shaft. This noncollocated loop is closed to ensure that the commanded torque is accurately delivered to the manipulator link. The actuator system is modelled and its essential parameters identified. The nonlinear model for simulations will include inertias, gearing, stiction, flexibility, and the effects of output load variations. A linear model is extracted and used for designing the noncollocated torque and position feedback loops. These loops are simulated with the structural frequency encountered in the testbed system. Simulation results are given for various commands in position. The use of torque feedback is demonstrated to yield superior performance in settling time and positioning accuracy. An experimental setup being finished consists of a bench mounted motor and harmonic drive actuator system. A torque transducer and two position encoders, each with sufficient resolution and bandwidth, will provide sensory information. Parameters of the physical system are being identified and matched to analytical predictions. Initial feedback control laws will be incorporated in the bench test equipment and various experiments run to validate the designs. The status of these experiments is given.

Tilley, Scott W.↗

Compact Two-step Laser Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer for in Situ Analyses of Aromatic Organics on Planetary Missions

RATIONALE A miniature time-of-flight mass spectrometer has been adapted to demonstrate two-step laser desorption-ionization (LOI) in a compact instrument package for enhanced organics detection. Two-step LDI decouples the desorption and ionization processes, relative to traditional laser ionization-desorption, in order to produce low-fragmentation conditions for complex organic analytes. Tuning UV ionization laser energy allowed control ofthe degree of fragmentation, which may enable better identification of constituent species. METHODS A reflectron time-of-flight mass spectrometer prototype measuring 20 cm in length was adapted to a two-laser configuration, with IR (1064 nm) desorption followed by UV (266 nm) postionization. A relatively low ion extraction voltage of 5 kV was applied at the sample inlet. Instrument capabilities and performance were demonstrated with analysis of a model polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, representing a class of compounds important to the fields of Earth and planetary science. RESULTS L2MS analysis of a model PAH standard, pyrene, has been demonstrated, including parent mass identification and the onset o(tunable fragmentation as a function of ionizing laser energy. Mass resolution m/llm = 380 at full width at half-maximum was achieved which is notable for gas-phase ionization of desorbed neutrals in a highly-compact mass analyzer. CONCLUSIONS Achieving two-step laser mass spectrometry (L2MS) in a highly-miniature instrument enables a powerful approach to the detection and characterization of aromatic organics in remote terrestrial and planetary applications. Tunable detection of parent and fragment ions with high mass resolution, diagnostic of molecular structure, is possible on such a compact L2MS instrument. Selectivity of L2MS against low-mass inorganic salt interferences is a key advantage when working with unprocessed, natural samples, and a mechanism for the observed selectivity is presented.

Getty, Stephanie↗

Application of performance portability solutions for GPUs and many-core CPUs to track reconstruction kernels

Next generation High-Energy Physics (HEP) experiments are presented with significant computational challenges, both in terms of data volume and processing power. Using compute accelerators, such as GPUs, is one of the promising ways to provide the necessary computational power to meet the challenge. The current programming models for compute accelerators often involve using architecture-specific programming languages promoted by the hardware vendors and hence limit the set of platforms that the code can run on. Developing software with platform restrictions is especially unfeasible for HEP communities as it takes significant effort to convert typical HEP algorithms into ones that are efficient for compute accelerators. Multiple performance portability solutions have recently emerged and provide an alternative path for using compute accelerators, which allow the code to be executed on hardware from different vendors. We apply several portability solutions, such as Kokkos, SYCL, C++17 std::execution::par and Alpaka, on two mini-apps extracted from the mkFit project: p2z and p2r. These apps include basic kernels for a Kalman filter track fit, such as propagation and update of track parameters, for detectors at a fixed z or fixed r position, respectively. The two mini-apps explore different memory layout formats. We report on the development experience with different portability solutions, as well as their performance on GPUs and many-core CPUs, measured as the throughput of the kernels from different GPU and CPU vendors such as NVIDIA, AMD and Intel.

Kwok, Ka Martin↗

Evidence of hot carrier extraction in metal halide perovskite solar cells

The presence of hot carriers is presented in the operational properties of an (FA,Cs)Pb(I, Br, Cl) 3 solar cell at ambient temperatures and under practical solar concentration. Albeit, in a device architecture that is not suitably designed as a functional hot carrier solar cell. At 100 K, clear evidence of hot carriers is observed in both the high energy tail of the photoluminescence spectra and from the appearance of a nonequilibrium photocurrent at higher fluence in light J–V measurements. At room temperature, however, the presence of hot carriers in the emission at elevated laser fluence is shown to compete with a gradual red shift in the PL peak energy as photoinduced halide segregation begins to occur at higher lattice temperature. The effects of thermionic emission of hot carriers and the presence of a nonequilibrium carrier distribution are also shown to be distinct from simple lattice heating. In conclusion, this results in large unsaturated photocurrents at high powers as the Fermi distribution exceeds that of the heterointerface controlling carrier transport and rectification.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation

Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Imaging local discharge cascades for correlated electrons in WS 2 /WSe 2 moiré superlattices

Transition metal dichalcogenide moiré heterostructures provide an ideal platform to explore the extended Hubbard model, where long-range Coulomb interactions play a critical role in determining strongly correlated electron states. This has led to experimental observations of Mott insulator states at half filling as well as a variety of extended Wigner crystal states at different fractional fillings. However, a microscopic understanding of these emerging quantum phases is still lacking. Here we describe a scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) technique for the local sensing and manipulation of correlated electrons in a gated WS 2 /WSe 2 moiré superlattice, which enables the experimental extraction of fundamental extended Hubbard model parameters. We demonstrate that the charge state of the local moiré sites can be imaged by their influence on the STM tunnelling current. In addition to imaging, we are also able to manipulate the charge state of correlated electrons. When we ramp the bias on the STM tip, there is a local discharge cascade of correlated electrons in the moiré superlattice, which allows us to estimate the nearest-neighbour Coulomb interaction. Two-dimensional mapping of the moiré electron charge states also enables us to determine the on-site energy fluctuations at different moiré sites. Furthermore, our technique should be broadly applicable to many semiconductor moiré systems, offering a powerful tool for the microscopic characterization and control of strongly correlated states in moiré superlattices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗