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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Moisture Recycling through Pumping by Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract Moisture recycling, the contribution of local evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, has been studied using bulk models assuming a well-mixed atmosphere. The latter is inconsistent with a climatologically stratified atmosphere that slants across latitudes. Reconciling the two views requires an understanding of overturning associated with different weather systems. In this study, we aim to better understand moisture recycling associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using a convection-permitting WRF simulation equipped with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT), we tag moisture from terrestrial ET in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during May 2015, when more than 20 MCS events occurred and produced significant precipitation and flooding. Water budget analysis reveals that approximately 76% of terrestrial ET is advected away from the region while the remaining 24% of terrestrial ET is “pumped” upward within the region, accounting for 12% of precipitation. Moisture recycling peaks during early night hours (1800–2400 LT) due to the mixing of the daytime accumulated ET by active convection. By focusing on five “diurnally driven” MCSs with less large-scale circulation influence than other MCSs during the same period, we find an upright pumping of terrestrial ET at the MCS initiation and development stages, which diverges into two branches during the MCS mature and decaying stages. One branch in the upper level advects the ET-sourced moisture downstream, while the other branch in the mid-to-upper level contributes to the trailing precipitation upstream. Overall, our analysis depicts a pumping mechanism associated with MCSs that mixes local ET vertically, highlighting its specific contributions to enhancing convective precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Large-Scale Vorticity Balance of the Antarctic Continental Margin in a Fine-Resolution Global Simulation

The depth-integrated vorticity budget of a global, eddy-permitting ocean/sea ice simulation over the Antarctic continental margin (ACM) is diagnosed to understand the physical mechanisms implicated in meridional transport. The leading-order balance is between the torques due to lateral friction, nonlinear effects, and bottom vortex stretching, although details vary regionally. Maps of the time-averaged depth-integrated vorticity budget terms and time series of the spatially averaged, depth-integrated vorticity budget terms reveal that the flow in the Amundsen, Bellingshausen, and Weddell Seas and, to a lesser extent, in the western portion of East Antarctica, is closer to an approximate topographic Sverdrup balance (TSB) compared to other segments of the ACM. Correlation and coherence analyses further support these findings, and also show that inclusion of the vorticity tendency term in the response (the planetary vorticity advection and the bottom vortex stretching term) increases the correlation with the forcing (the vertical net stress curl), and also increases the coherence between forcing and response at high frequencies across the ACM, except for the West Antarctic Peninsula. Finally, these findings suggest that the surface stress curl, imparted by the wind and the sea ice, has the potential to contribute to the meridional, approximately cross-slope, transport to a greater extent in the Amundsen, Bellingshausen, Weddell, and part of the East Antarctic continental margin than elsewhere in the ACM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

UNRAVEL: A Robust Modular Velocity Dealiasing Technique for Doppler Radar

Unfold Radar Velocity (UNRAVEL) is an open-source modular Doppler velocity dealiasing algorithm for weather radars. UNRAVEL is an algorithm that does not need external reference velocity data, making it easily applicable. The proposed algorithm includes 11 core modules and 2 dealiasing strategies. UNRAVEL is an iterative algorithm. The goal is to build the dealiasing results starting with the strictest possible continuity tests in azimuth and range and, after each step, relaxing the parameters to include more results from a progressively growing number of reference points. UNRAVEL also has modules that perform 3D continuity checks. Thanks to this modular design, the number of dealiasing strategies can be expanded in order to optimize the dealiasing results. While the first driver dealiases Doppler velocity from each tilt independently from one another, the second driver also performs a three-dimensional continuity check of the velocity using successive elevations. The proposed dealiasing algorithm is tested using severe weather data from an S-band Doppler radar that have been aliased to mimic aliased radial velocity patterns that would be observed by a C-band Doppler radar. Artificially aliasing S-band data permits creation of a reference to which the performance of various dealiasing techniques can be compared. Comparisons show that UNRAVEL consistently outperforms other established dealiasing algorithms for the test period selected in this work.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Assessment of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model: A Case Study from the ARM MAGIC Field Campaign

This paper presents a process-oriented evaluation of precipitating stratocumulus and its transition to cumulus in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) using comprehensive case-study observations from a field campaign of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM). The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) of the marine boundary layer and its low clouds and precipitation are compared to observations including subcloud drizzle retrievals from a combination of Doppler radar and lidar backscatter measurements. Additionally, the SCM is also compared to a large-eddy simulation (LES) of the same case. The combination of advanced remote sensing observations and LES is a powerful framework to evaluate the physical parameterizations of large-scale models. Given the observed large-scale environment, the E3SMv1 SCM realistically represents the evolution of clouds and boundary layer structure during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition. The model well simulates the liquid water path and its diurnal cycle in the stratocumulus period as well as the two-layer vertical thermodynamic structure and lower cloud fraction in the transition period. E3SMv1’s success in simulating the cloud in the stratocumulus period permitted examination of its precipitation processes. Here problems were identified with E3SMv1 producing an unrealistically small subcloud precipitation fraction, an unrealistic double peak in the vertical profiles of precipitation mass, and drizzle that evaporates too close to the surface. Further model diagnostics determined that these unrealistic characteristics resulted from an overly long microphysics time step and an unrealistic parameterization of the precipitation fraction. These results imply that careful consideration of these issues is needed in order to better simulate precipitation processes in marine stratocumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thunderstorm Cloud-Type Classification from Space-Based Lightning Imagers

The organization and structure of thunderstorms determines the extent and severity of their hazards to the general public and their consequences for the Earth system. Distinguishing vigorous convective regions that produce heavy rain and hail from adjacent regions of stratiform clouds or overhanging anvil clouds that produce light to no rainfall is valuable in operations and physical research. Cloud-type algorithms that partition convection from stratiform regions have been developed for space-based radar, passive microwave, and now Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) multispectral products. However, there are limitations for each of these products including temporal availability, spatial coverage, and the degree to which they based on cloud microphysics. We report we have developed a cloud-type algorithm for GOES Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) observations that identifies convective/nonconvective regions in thunderstorms based on signatures of interactions with nonconvective charge structures in the lightning flash data. The GLM sensor permits a rapid (20 s) update cycle over the combined GOES-16–GOES-17 domain across all hours of the day. Storm regions that do not produce lightning will not be classified by our algorithm, however. The GLM cloud-type product is intended to provide situational awareness of electrified nonconvective clouds and to complement other cloud-type retrievals by providing a contemporary assessment tied to lightning physics. We propose that a future combined ABI–GLM cloud-type algorithm would be a valuable product that could draw from the strengths of each instrument and approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bimodal Diagnostic Cloud Fraction Parameterization. Part I: Motivating Analysis and Scheme Description

Cloud fraction parameterizations are beneficial to regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. For its operational regional midlatitude forecasts, the Met Office uses a diagnostic cloud fraction scheme that relies on a unimodal, symmetric subgrid saturation-departure distribution. This scheme has been shown before to underestimate cloud cover and hence an empirically based bias correction is used operationally to improve performance. This first of a series of two papers proposes a new diagnostic cloud scheme as a more physically based alternative to the operational bias correction. The new cloud scheme identifies entrainment zones associated with strong temperature inversions. Additionally, for model grid boxes located in this entrainment zone, collocated moist and dry Gaussian modes are used to represent the subgrid conditions. The mean and width of the Gaussian modes, inferred from the turbulent characteristics, are then used to diagnose cloud water content and cloud fraction. It is shown that the new scheme diagnoses enhanced cloud cover for a given gridbox mean humidity, similar to the current operational approach. It does so, however, in a physically meaningful way. Using observed aircraft data and ground-based retrievals over the southern Great Plains in the United States, it is shown that the new scheme improves the relation between cloud fraction, relative humidity, and liquid water content. An emergent property of the scheme is its ability to infer skewed and bimodal distributions from the large-scale state that qualitatively compare well against observations. A detailed evaluation and resolution sensitivity study will follow in Part II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-Level Mesoscale and Cloud-Scale Interactions Promoting Deep Convection Initiation

Data from scanning radars, radiosondes, and vertical profilers deployed during three field campaigns are analyzed to study interactions between cloud-scale updrafts associated with initiating deep moist convection and the surrounding environment. Three cases are analyzed in which the radar networks permitted dual-Doppler wind retrievals in clear air preceding and during the onset of surface precipitation. These observations capture the evolution of (i) the mesoscale and boundary layer flow, and (ii) low-level updrafts associated with deep moist convection initiation (CI) events yielding sustained or short-lived precipitating storms. The elimination of convective inhibition did not distinguish between sustained and unsustained CI events, though the vertical distribution of convective available potential energy may have played a role. The clearest signal differentiating the initiation of sustained versus unsustained precipitating deep convection was the depth of the low-level horizontal wind convergence associated with the mesoscale flow feature triggering CI, a sharp surface wind shift boundary, or orographic upslope flow. The depth of the boundary layer relative to the height of the LFC failed to be a consistent indicator of CI potential. Widths of the earliest detectable low-level updrafts associated with sustained precipitating deep convection were ~3–5 km, larger than updrafts associated with surrounding boundary layer turbulence (~1–3 km wide). It is hypothesized that updrafts of this larger size are important for initiating cells to survive the destructive effects of buoyancy dilution via entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Semi-Implicit Computation of Fast Modes in a Scheme Integrating Slow Modes by a Leapfrog Method Based on a Selective Implicit Time Filter

Abstract A scheme for integration of atmospheric equations containing terms with differing time scales is developed. The method employs a filtered leapfrog scheme utilizing a fourth-order implicit time filter with one function evaluation per time step to compute slow-propagating phenomena such as advection and rotation. The terms involving fast-propagating modes are handled implicitly with an unconditionally stable method that permits application of larger time steps and faster computations compared to fully explicit treatment. Implementation using explicit and recurrent formulation is provided. Stability analysis demonstrates that the method is conditionally stable for any combination of frequencies involved in the slow and fast terms as they approach the origin. The implicit filter used in the method damps the computational modes without noticeably sacrificing the accuracy of the physical mode. TheO[(Δt 4 )] accuracy for amplitude errors achieved by the implicitly filtered leapfrog is preserved in applications where terms responsible for fast propagation are integrated with a semi-implicit method. Detailed formulation of the method for soundproof nonhydrostatic anelastic equations is provided. Procedures for implementation in global spectral shallow-water models are also given. Examples comparing numerical and analytical solutions for linear gravity waves demonstrate the accuracy of the scheme. The performance is also shown in more practical nonlinear applications, where numerical solutions accomplished by the method are evaluated against those computed from a scheme where the slow terms are handled by the third-order Runge–Kutta scheme. It demonstrates that the method is able to accurately resolve fine-scale dynamics of Kelvin–Helmholtz shear instabilities, the evolution of density current, and nonlinear drifts of twin tropical cyclones.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill

The skill of NOAA’s official monthly U.S. precipitation forecasts (issued in the middle of the prior month) has historically been low, having shown modest skill over the southern United States, but little or no skill over large portions of the central United States. The goal of this study is to explain the seasonal and regional variations of the North American subseasonal (weeks 3–6) precipitation skill, specifically the reasons for its successes and its limitations. The performances of multiple recent-generation model reforecasts over 1999–2015 in predicting precipitation are compared to uninitialized simulation skill using the atmospheric component of the forecast systems. This parallel analysis permits attribution of precipitation skill to two distinct sources: one due to slowly evolving ocean surface boundary states and the other to faster time-scale initial atmospheric weather states. A strong regionality and seasonality in precipitation forecast performance is shown to be analogous to skill patterns dictated by boundary forcing constraints alone. The correspondence is found to be especially high for the North American pattern of the maximum monthly skill that is achieved in the reforecast. The boundary forcing of most importance originates from tropical Pacific SST influences, especially those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, we discuss physical constraints that may limit monthly precipitation skill and interpret the performance of existing models in the context of plausible upper limits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Cellulosic biofuel production using emulsified simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (eSSF) with conventional and thermotolerant yeasts

Abstract Background Future expansion of corn-derived ethanol raises concerns of sustainability and competition with the food industry. Therefore, cellulosic biofuels derived from agricultural waste and dedicated energy crops are necessary. To date, slow and incomplete saccharification as well as high enzyme costs have hindered the economic viability of cellulosic biofuels, and while approaches like simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) and the use of thermotolerant microorganisms can enhance production, further improvements are needed. Cellulosic emulsions have been shown to enhance saccharification by increasing enzyme contact with cellulose fibers. In this study, we use these emulsions to develop an emulsified SSF (eSSF) process for rapid and efficient cellulosic biofuel production and make a direct three-way comparison of ethanol production between S. cerevisiae , O. polymorpha , and K. marxianus in glucose and cellulosic media at different temperatures. Results In this work, we show that cellulosic emulsions hydrolyze rapidly at temperatures tolerable to yeast, reaching up to 40-fold higher conversion in the first hour compared to microcrystalline cellulose (MCC). To evaluate suitable conditions for the eSSF process, we explored the upper temperature limits for the thermotolerant yeasts Kluyveromyces marxianus and Ogataea polymorpha , as well as Saccharomyces cerevisiae , and observed robust fermentation at up to 46, 50, and 42 °C for each yeast, respectively. We show that the eSSF process reaches high ethanol titers in short processing times, and produces close to theoretical yields at temperatures as low as 30 °C. Finally, we demonstrate the transferability of the eSSF technology to other products by producing the advanced biofuel isobutanol in a light-controlled eSSF using optogenetic regulators, resulting in up to fourfold higher titers relative to MCC SSF. Conclusions The eSSF process addresses the main challenges of cellulosic biofuel production by increasing saccharification rate at temperatures tolerable to yeast. The rapid hydrolysis of these emulsions at low temperatures permits fermentation using non-thermotolerant yeasts, short processing times, low enzyme loads, and makes it possible to extend the process to chemicals other than ethanol, such as isobutanol. This transferability establishes the eSSF process as a platform for the sustainable production of biofuels and chemicals as a whole.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

BinaRena: a dedicated interactive platform for human-guided exploration and binning of metagenomes

Background: Exploring metagenomic contigs and “binning” them into metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) are essential for the delineation of functional and evolutionary guilds within microbial communities. Despite the advances in automated binning algorithms, their capabilities in recovering MAGs with accuracy and biological relevance are so far limited. Researchers often find that human involvement is necessary to achieve representative binning results. This manual process however is expertise demanding and labor intensive, and it deserves to be supported by software infrastructure. Results: We present BinaRena, a comprehensive and versatile graphic interface dedicated to aiding human operators to explore metagenome assemblies via customizable visualization and to associate contigs with bins. Contigs are rendered as an interactive scatter plot based on various data types, including sequence metrics, coverage profiles, taxonomic assignments, and functional annotations. Various contig-level operations are permitted, such as selection, masking, highlighting, focusing, and searching. Binning plans can be conveniently edited, inspected, and compared visually or using metrics including silhouette coefficient and adjusted Rand index. Completeness and contamination of user-selected contigs can be calculated in real time. In demonstration of BinaRena’s usability, we show that it facilitated biological pattern discovery, hypothesis generation, and bin refinement in a complex tropical peatland metagenome. It enabled isolation of pathogenic genomes within closely related populations from the gut microbiota of diarrheal human subjects. It significantly improved overall binning quality after curating results of automated binners using a simulated marine dataset. Conclusions: BinaRena is an installation-free, dependency-free, client-end web application that operates directly in any modern web browser, facilitating ease of deployment and accessibility for researchers of all skill levels. The program is hosted at https://github.com/qiyunlab/binarena, together with documentation, tutorials, example data, and a live demo. It effectively supports human researchers in intuitive interpretation and fine tuning of metagenomic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multicriteria screening evaluation of geothermal resources on mine lands for direct use heating

Abstract Direct use of geothermal energy is the oldest and most versatile form of utilizing geothermal energy. In the last decade, this utilization has significantly increased, especially with the installation of geothermal (ground-source) heat pumps. Many current and inactive mine land sites across the U.S. could be redeveloped with clean energy technologies such as direct use geothermal, which would revitalize former mining communities, help with reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and accelerate the transition to a clean energy economy. We present a multicriteria screening framework to evaluate various aspects of direct-use geothermal projects on mine lands. The criteria are divided into three categories: (1) technical potential, (2) demand and benefits, and (3) regulatory and permitting. We demonstrate the framework using publicly available data on a national scale (continental U.S.). Then, using an example of abandoned coal mines in Illinois and focusing on resource potential, we illustrate how this evaluation can be applied at the state or more local scales when a region’s characteristics drive spatial variability estimates. The strength of this approach is the ability to combine seemingly disparate parameters and inputs from numerous sources. The framework is very flexible—additional criteria can be easily incorporated and weights modified if input data support them. Vice versa, the framework can also help identify additional data needed for evaluating those criteria. The multicriteria screening evaluation methodology provides a framework for identifying potential candidates for detailed site evaluation and characterization.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Data for "Evaluating the industrial potential of emerging biomass pretreatment technologies in bioethanol production and lipid recovery from transgenic sugarcane"

The selection of pretreatment methods is critical to achieving high product yields during bioconversion of lignocellulosic biomass. Hydrothermal, soaking-in-aqueous ammonia, and ionic liquid pretreatment methods are viable candidates for minimizing sugar decomposition, permitting the effective hydrolysis of structural carbohydrates, and producing a fermentable substrate suitable for achieving industrial ethanol titers and yields. In this study, the effect of these three pretreatment methods on non-modified sugarcane cultivar CP88-1762 and two transgenic lipid-accumulating sugarcane lines, oilcane 1565 and oilcane 1566, were investigated and compared in terms of lipid recovery, sugar yield, and ethanol yields within the lignocellulosic biomass conversion pipeline. Fed-batch enzymatic hydrolysis at high solid loading yielded hydrolysates capable of supporting industrial bioethanol titers across all conditions. The highest sugar yields were obtained on ammonia-pretreated biomass hydrolysate (253.73 g L−1), followed by hydrothermally pretreated hydrolysate (213.10 g L−1) and ionic liquid-pretreated hydrolysate (154.20 g L−1). Commercially viable ethanol titers of 100.62 g L−1, 64.47 g L−1, and 52.95 g L−1 were achieved from ammonia, hydrothermal, and ionic liquid pretreated hydrolysate with the corresponding ethanol productivities of 2.08 g L−1 h−1, 0.53 g L−1 h−1, and 0.36 g L−1 h−1. The lower acetic acid concentration in ammonia-pretreated hydrolysate may have enhanced its fermentability relative to the hydrothermal pretreatment condition, as indicated by the differences in ethanol titer and productivity. Lower sugar yields and ethanol productivities under the ionic liquid conditions likely resulted from the inhibitory effect of cholinium lysinate. Oilcane 1565 and oilcane 1566 bagasse accumulated over 16- and 3 times higher lipids than the non-modified sugarcane CP88-1762. The total fatty acid content in the oilcane samples was reduced in ammonia and ionic liquid-pretreated bagasse relative to the hydrothermal pretreatment condition. While all pretreatment techniques tested are industrially viable, the observed differences in titer, productivity, and lipid content indicate that careful selection and validation of upstream processing methods can contribute to improved economic and environmental outcomes.

biomass analytics↗

Rapid depletion analysis of flowing-pebble reactor systems at equilibrium using SCALE

Several high-temperature gas-cooled reactor concepts (and more recently, salt-cooled designs such as the fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor) feature core designs employing continuously circulating fuel pebbles. These reactor designs permit both continuous online refueling of fuel elements as well as higher overall achievable discharge burnups. However, rapid calculation of time-dependent fuel isotopic inventories proves challenging for this class of dynamic systems with current analysis tools. While iterative approaches employing coupled neutron transport have been developed to solve this issue, rapid depletion analysis techniques are needed to calculate time-dependent inventories for individual pebbles and batches (and thus the construction of full- core inventory at equilibrium). We propose a depletion analysis strategy for this type of system for cores at equilibrium. Drawing upon previous neutronic analysis of the PBMR-400 equilibrium core, we demonstrate the viability of developing collapsed one-group cross section libraries suitable for performing rapid depletion analyses with SCALE. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Deterministic modelling of the SPERT IV reactor transients using the multi-physics capability of WIMS

The ANSWERS WIMS reactor physics code is being developed for whole core multi-physics modelling. The established neutronics capability for lattice calculations has recently been extended to be suitable for whole core modelling of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). A whole core transport, SP3 or diffusion flux solution is combined with fuel assembly resonance shielding. An integrated thermal hydraulic solver permits temperature and density variations to feedback to the neutronics calculation. This capability can be applied to both steady state and time dependent transient problems. Nuclear reactor design and safety case development requires assessment of a range of reactor transients, to inform both normal operation limitations and accident scenario analysis. This paper presents new methodology developed in WIMS to couple the core neutronics to the integrated core thermal hydraulics solver for the simulation of reactor transients in whole core models. To support the validation of the multi-physics capability of WIMS, this capability has been applied to the reactivity insertion transient experiments performed in the plate fuelled SPERT-IV reactor. This study employs WIMS using the whole core solver MERLIN, which calculates the time-dependent flux distribution and magnitude, coupled to ARTHUR, which solves for the time-dependent thermal hydraulics solution, and provides thermal feedback via the cross sections generated by GEOM, which performs resonance shielding calculations and generates cross section data for the plate geometry. This spatial kinetics model, with dynamic cross section generation, allows for variations in the temperature and neutron flux profile with time.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Update of the Nuclear Criticality Slide Rule: Review of the Estimation of the Number of Fissions

IRSN (France), LLNL (USA) and ORNL (USA) began a long-term collaboration effort in 2015 to update the nuclear criticality Slide Rule (https://ncsp.llnl.gov/analytical-methods/criticality-sliderule) for the emergency response to a nuclear criticality accident. The Slide Rule permits the estimation of neutron and gamma dose rates and integrated doses based upon estimated fission yields, as a function of distance from the fission source, and time after criticality accidents for different critical systems. This paper presents the review of the section “estimation of the number of fissions”, named “fission yield” in the Slide Rule document. This estimation is important because the other information provided by the Slide Rule is directly proportional to the number of fissions. The previous models, based on Hansen and Barbry formulae, will be presented with their associated assumptions and limitations. Then, new proposals will be presented with a comparison to past criticality accidents and experimental data. The new formulae, based on the heat energy equation, cover many types of criticality accidents (solution, dry or low-moderated powder, rods/assemblies in water and dry metal) and require limited information in an emergency situation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Update of the Nuclear Criticality Slide Rule Calculations: Plutonium systems – Delayed Fission Gamma

IRSN (France), LLNL (USA) and ORNL (USA) began a long-term collaboration effort in 2015 to update the nuclear criticality Slide Rule for the emergency response to a nuclear criticality accident. The Slide Rule permits the estimation of neutron and gamma dose rates and integrated doses based upon estimated fission yields, as a function of distance from the fission source, and time after criticality accidents for different critical systems. This paper presents results from the fourth phase of the current update of the Slide Rule project, in which delayed fission-product gamma (DFG) dose rates of unreflected plutonium critical systems were compared by several modern 3D radiation transport codes (MCNP, COG, SCALE), using updated flux-to-dose conversion factors. Dose rates are calculated for fissile material at five moderation ratios (H/Pu), at 1 m above the ground as a function of distance (between 30 cm and 1,200 m) from the external surface of the source to the center of the detector, and for periods between 1 s and 1,000 min after the critical instantaneous event. Further efforts have been devoted to the determination of the delayed gamma source, by comparing the time-dependent energy spectra obtained from several methods. Overall, DFG dose rates calculated by each participant led to consistent results. Extra effort is under way to identify the cause of the remaining differences, by comparing precisely the gamma source, and particularly nuclides inventories.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗