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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

TU-AB-BRB-02: Stochastic Programming Methods for Handling Uncertainty and Motion in IMRT Planning

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. The treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

TU-AB-BRB-03: Coverage-Based Treatment Planning to Accommodate Organ Deformable Motions and Contouring Uncertainties for Prostate Treatment

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. The treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Automated segmentation of dental CBCT image with prior-guided sequential random forests

Purpose: Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is an increasingly utilized imaging modality for the diagnosis and treatment planning of the patients with craniomaxillofacial (CMF) deformities. Accurate segmentation of CBCT image is an essential step to generate 3D models for the diagnosis and treatment planning of the patients with CMF deformities. However, due to the image artifacts caused by beam hardening, imaging noise, inhomogeneity, truncation, and maximal intercuspation, it is difficult to segment the CBCT. Methods: In this paper, the authors present a new automatic segmentation method to address these problems. Specifically, the authors first employ a majority voting method to estimate the initial segmentation probability maps of both mandible and maxilla based on multiple aligned expert-segmented CBCT images. These probability maps provide an important prior guidance for CBCT segmentation. The authors then extract both the appearance features from CBCTs and the context features from the initial probability maps to train the first-layer of random forest classifier that can select discriminative features for segmentation. Based on the first-layer of trained classifier, the probability maps are updated, which will be employed to further train the next layer of random forest classifier. By iteratively training the subsequent random forest classifier using both the original CBCT features and the updated segmentation probability maps, a sequence of classifiers can be derived for accurate segmentation of CBCT images. Results: Segmentation results on CBCTs of 30 subjects were both quantitatively and qualitatively validated based on manually labeled ground truth. The average Dice ratios of mandible and maxilla by the authors’ method were 0.94 and 0.91, respectively, which are significantly better than the state-of-the-art method based on sparse representation (p-value < 0.001). Conclusions: The authors have developed and validated a novel fully automated method for CBCT segmentation.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-450: The Investigation of Radiotherapy Quality Assurance and Automatic Treatment Planning Based On the Kernel Density Estimation Method

Purpose: To develop a fast automatic algorithm based on the two dimensional kernel density estimation (2D KDE) to predict the dose-volume histogram (DVH) which can be employed for the investigation of radiotherapy quality assurance and automatic treatment planning. Methods: We propose a machine learning method that uses previous treatment plans to predict the DVH. The key to the approach is the framing of DVH in a probabilistic setting. The training consists of estimating, from the patients in the training set, the joint probability distribution of the dose and the predictive features. The joint distribution provides an estimation of the conditional probability of the dose given the values of the predictive features. For the new patient, the prediction consists of estimating the distribution of the predictive features and marginalizing the conditional probability from the training over this. Integrating the resulting probability distribution for the dose yields an estimation of the DVH. The 2D KDE is implemented to predict the joint probability distribution of the training set and the distribution of the predictive features for the new patient. Two variables, including the signed minimal distance from each OAR (organs at risk) voxel to the target boundary and its opening angle with respect to the origin of voxel coordinate, are considered as the predictive features to represent the OAR-target spatial relationship. The feasibility of our method has been demonstrated with the rectum, breast and head-and-neck cancer cases by comparing the predicted DVHs with the planned ones. Results: The consistent result has been found between these two DVHs for each cancer and the average of relative point-wise differences is about 5% within the clinical acceptable extent. Conclusion: According to the result of this study, our method can be used to predict the clinical acceptable DVH and has ability to evaluate the quality and consistency of the treatment planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-683: Cancer Stem Cell Hypothesis and Radiation Treatments

Purpose: The tumor control probability in radiation therapy allows comparing different radiation treatments to each other by means of calculating the probability that a prescribed dose of radiation eradicates or controls the tumor. In the conventional approach, all cancer cells can divide unlimited number of times and the tumor control often means eradicating every malignant cell by the radiation. In recent years however, there is a mounting consensus that in a given tumor volume there is a sub-population of cells, known as cancer stem cells (CSCs) that are responsible for tumor initiation and growth. Other or progenitor cancer cells can only divide limited number of times. This entails that only cancer stem cells may nned to be eliminated in order to control the tumor. Thus one may define TCP as the probability of eliminating CSCs for the given dose of radiation. Methods: Using stochastic methods, specifically the birth-and-death Markov processes, an infinite system of equations is set for probabilities of having m cancer stem cells at time t after the start of radiation. The TCP is calculated as the probability of no cancer stem cells surviving the radiation. Two scenarios are studied. In the first situation, the TCP is calculated for a unidirectional case when CSC gives birth to another CSC or a progenitor cell. In the second scenario, a bidirectional model is studied where the progenitor cell gives rise to CSC. Results: The proposed calculations show that the calculated TCP for CSC depends on whether one adopts unidirectional or bidirectional conversion models. The bidirectional model shows significantly lower TCP values for the given dose delivered to the tumor. Conclusion: Incorporating CSC hypothesis into the TCP modeling may notably influence the dose prescription as well as the concept of the expected TCP after the radiation treatments.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

WE-AB-202-01: Evaluating the Toxicity Reduction with CT-Ventilation Functional Avoidance Radiation Therapy

Purpose: CT-ventilation is an exciting new imaging modality that uses 4DCTs to calculate lung ventilation. Studies have proposed to use 4DCT-ventilation imaging for functional avoidance radiotherapy which implies designing treatment plans to spare functional portions of the lung. Although retrospective studies have been performed to evaluate the dosimetric gains to functional lung; no work has been done to translate the dosimetric gains to an improvement in pulmonary toxicity. The purpose of our work was to evaluate the potential reduction in toxicity for 4DCT-ventilation based functional avoidance. Methods: 70 lung cancer patients with 4DCT imaging were used for the study. CT-ventilation maps were calculated using the patient’s 4DCT, deformable image registrations, and a density-change-based algorithm. Radiation pneumonitis was graded using imaging and clinical information. Log-likelihood methods were used to fit a normal-tissue-complication-probability (NTCP) model predicting grade 2+ radiation pneumonitis as a function of doses (mean and V20) to functional lung (>15% ventilation). For 20 patients a functional plan was generated that reduced dose to functional lung while meeting RTOG 0617-based constraints. The NTCP model was applied to the functional plan to determine the reduction in toxicity with functional planning Results: The mean dose to functional lung was 16.8 and 17.7 Gy with the functional and clinical plans respectively. The corresponding grade 2+ pneumonitis probability was 26.9% with the clinically-used plan and 24.6% with the functional plan (8.5% reduction). The V20-based grade 2+ pneumonitis probability was 23.7% with the clinically-used plan and reduced to 19.6% with the functional plan (20.9% reduction). Conclusion: Our results revealed a reduction of 9–20% in complication probability with functional planning. To our knowledge this is the first study to apply complication probability to convert dosimetric results to toxicity improvement. The results presented in the current work provide seminal data for prospective clinical trials in functional avoidance. YV discloses funding from State of Colorado. TY discloses National Lung Cancer Partnership; Young Investigator Research grant.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Rare-event Simulation for Stochastic Korteweg-de Vries Equation

An asymptotic analysis of the tail probabilities for the dynamics of a soliton wave $U(x,t)$ under a stochastic time-dependent force is developed. The dynamics of the soliton wave $U(x,t)$ is described by the Korteweg-de Vries Equation with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions under a stochastic time-dependent force, which is modeled as a time-dependent Gaussian noise with amplitude $\epsilon$. The tail probability we considered is $w(b) :=P(\sup_{t\in [0,T]} U(x,t) > b ),$ as $b\rightarrow \infty,$ for some constant $T>0$ and a fixed $x$, which can be interpreted as tail probability of the amplitude of water wave on shallow surface of a fluid or long internal wave in a density-stratified ocean. Our goal is to characterize the asymptotic behaviors of $w(b)$ and to evaluate the tail probability of the event that the soliton wave exceeds a certain threshold value under a random force term. Such rare-event calculation of $w(b)$ is very useful for fast estimation of the risk of the potential damage that could caused by the water wave in a density-stratified ocean modeled by the stochastic KdV equation. In this work, the asymptotic approximation of the probability that the soliton wave exceeds a high-level $b$ is derived. In addition, we develop a provably efficient rare-event simulation algorithm to compute $w(b)$. The efficiency of the algorithm only requires mild conditions and therefore it is applicable to a general class of Gaussian processes and many diverse applications.

Xu, Gongjun↗
DOE OSTI2018

Combining Push-Forward Measures and Bayes' Rule to Construct Consistent Solutions to Stochastic Inverse Problems

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data on quantities of interest. The solution, given as a probability measure, is derived using a Bayesian updating approach for measurable maps that finds a posterior probability measure, that when propagated through the deterministic model produces a push-forward measure that exactly matches the observed probability measure on the data. Our approach for finding such posterior measures, which we call consistent Bayesian inference or push-forward based inference, is simple and only requires the computation of the push-forward probability measure induced by the combination of a prior probability measure and the deterministic model. We establish existence and uniqueness of observation-consistent posteriors and present both stability and error analyses. We also discuss the relationships between consistent Bayesian inference, classical/statistical Bayesian inference, and a recently developed measure-theoretic approach for inference. Finally, analytical and numerical results are presented to highlight certain properties of the consistent Bayesian approach and the differences between this approach and the two aforementioned alternatives for inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Overcoming the diffraction limit by multi-photon interference: a tutorial

The nature of light, extending from the optical to the x-ray regime, is reviewed from a diffraction point of view by comparing field-based statistical optics and photon-based quantum optics approaches. The topic is introduced by comparing historical diffraction concepts based on wave interference, Dirac’s notion of photon self-interference, Feynman’s interference of space–time photon probability amplitudes, and Glauber’s formulation of coherence functions based on photon detection. The concepts are elucidated by a review of how the semiclassical combination of the disparate photon and wave concepts have been used to describe light creation, diffraction, and detection. The origin of the fundamental diffraction limit is then discussed in both wave and photon pictures. By use of Feynman’s concept of probability amplitudes associated with independent photons, we show that quantum electrodynamics, the complete theory of light, reduces in lowest order to the conventional wave formalism of diffraction. As an introduction to multi-photon effects, we then review fundamental one- and two-photon experiments and detection schemes, in particular the seminal Hanbury Brown–Twiss experiment. The formal discourse of the paper starts with a treatment of first-order coherence theory. In first order, the statistical optics and quantum optics formulations of coherence are shown to be equivalent. This is elucidated by a discussion of Zernike’s powerful theorem of partial coherence propagation, a cornerstone of statistical optics, followed by its quantum derivation based on the interference of single-photon probability amplitudes. The treatment is then extended to second-order coherence theory, where the equivalence of wave and particle descriptions is shown to break down. This is illustrated by considering two photons whose space–time probability amplitudes are correlated through nonlinear birth processes, resulting in entanglement or cloning. In both cases, the two-photon diffraction patterns are shown to exhibit resolution below the conventional diffraction limit, defined by the one-photon diffraction patterns. The origin of the reduction is shown to arise from the interference of two-photon probability amplitudes. By comparing first- and second-order diffraction, it is shown that the conventional first-order concept of partial coherence with its limits of chaoticity and first-order coherence has the second-order analogue of partial entanglement, with its limits corresponding to two entangled photons (“entangled biphotons”) and two cloned photons (“cloned biphotons”), the latter being second-order coherent. The concept of cloned biphotons is extended to the case of $n$ cloned photons, resulting in a $1/n$ reduction of the diffraction limit. In the limit of $n$th-order collective state are shown to propagate on particle like trajectories, reproducing the 0th-order ray-optics picture. These results are discussed in terms of the linearity of quantum mechanics and Heisenberg’s space–momentum uncertainty principle. Finally, a general concept of coherence based on photon density is developed that in first order is equivalent to the conventional wave-based picture.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Simulating Metabolism with Statistical Thermodynamics

Kinetic probabilities of state are usually based on empirical measurements, while thermodynamic state probabilities are based on the assumption that chemical species are distributed to according to a multinomial Boltzmann distribution. While the use of kinetic simulations is desirable, obtaining all the mass action rate constants necessary to carry out kinetic simulations is an overwhelming challenge. Here, the kinetic probability of a state is compared in depth to the thermodynamic probability of a state for sets of coupled reactions. The entropic and energetic contributions to thermodynamic stable states are described and compared to entropic and energetic contributions of kinetic steady states. It is shown that many kinetic steady states are possible for a system of coupled reactions depending on the relative values of the mass action rate constants, but only one of these corresponds to a thermodynamically stable state. Furthermore, the thermodynamic stable state corresponds to a minimum free energy state. The use of thermodynamic simulations of state to model metabolic processes is attractive, since metabolite levels and energy requirements of pathways can be evaluated using only standard free energies of formation as parameters in the probability distribution. In chemical physics, the assumption of a Boltzmann distribution is the basis of transition state theory for modeling transitory species. Application to stable species, such as those found in metabolic processes, is a less severe assumption that would enable the use of simulations of state.

Cannon, William R.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making

Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making (Final Report) This Department of Energy workshop award (grant #DE-SC0008480) provided primary support for the American Meteorological Society’s study on climate information needs for financial decision making. The goal of this study was to help advance societal decision making by examining the implications of climate variability and change on near-term financial investments. We explored four key topics: 1) the conditions and criteria that influence returns on investment of major financial decisions, 2) the climate sensitivity of financial decisions, 3) climate information needs of financial decision makers, and 4) potential new mechanisms to promote collaboration between scientists and financial decision makers. Better understanding of these four topics will help scientists provide the most useful information and enable financial decision makers to use scientific information most effectively. As a result, this study will enable leaders in business and government to make well-informed choices that help maximize long-term economic success and social wellbeing in the United States The outcomes of the study include a workshop, which brought together leaders from the scientific and financial decision making communities, a publication of the study report, and a public briefing of the results to the policy community. In addition, we will present the results to the scientific community at the AMS Annual Meeting in February, 2014. The study results were covered well by the media including Bloomberg News and E&E News. Upon request, we also briefed the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) on the outcomes. We presented the results to the policy community through a public briefing in December on Capitol Hill. The full report is publicly available at www.ametsoc.org/cin. Summary of Key Findings The United States invests roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. dollars (USD) in capital assets each year across the public and private sectors (Orszag 2008; United States Census Bureau 2013). Extreme weather events create and exacerbate risks to these financial investments by contributing to: • Direct physical impacts on the investments themselves • Degradation of critical supporting infrastructure • Changes in the availability of key natural resources • Changes to workforce availability or capacity • Changes in the customer base • Supply chain disruptions • Legal liability • Shifts in the regulatory environment • Reductions in credit ratings Even small changes in weather can impact operations in critical economic sectors. As a result, maximizing returns on financial investments depends on accurately understanding and effectively accounting for these risks. Climate variability and change can either exacerbate existing risks or cause new sources of risk to emerge. Managing these risks most effectively will depend on scientific advances and increases in the capacity of financial decision makers to use the scientific knowledge that results. Barriers to using climate information must also be overcome. This study proposes three predefined levels of certainty for communicating about weather and climate risks: 1) possible (i.e., unknown likelihood or less than 50% chance of occurrence), 2) probable (greater than 50% chance of occurrence), and 3) effectively certain (at least 95% chance of occurrence). For example, it is effectively certain that a change in climate will alter weather patterns. It is probable that climate warming will cause increases in the intensity of some extreme events. It is possible that climate change will cause major and widespread disruptions to key planetary life-support services. Key recommendations of this study: 1) Identify climate-related risks and opportunities for financial decision making. 2) Create a framework to translate scientific information in clear and actionable terms for financial decision makers. 3) Analyze existing climate assessments and translate projected impacts into possible, probable, and effectively certain impacts. 4) Improve climate projections with respect to precipitation (timing, amount, and intensity), extreme events, and tails of probability distributions (i.e., low-probability but high-consequence events). 5) Increase spatial resolution of climate projections in order to provide climate information at the scale most relevant to financial investments. 6) Improve projections of the societal consequences of climate impacts through integrated assessments of physical, natural, and social sciences. 7) Create a user-friendly information repository and portal that provides easy access to information relevant to financial decision making. 8) Create and maintain opportunities to bring together financial decision makers, scientists, and service providers. Near-term financial decisions have long-term implications for the United States’ social and economic well-being that depend, in part, on climate variability and change. Investments will be most successful, and will advance the interests of society most effectively, if they are grounded in the best available knowledge & understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Development of Automated Software Program for the Analysis of Alzheimer's Disease Scans: Evaluation of PET imaging with PBR-111 in HV and AD subjects

Study goal: A Phase 1 evaluation of the kinetics, clearance and cerebral distribution of one novel peripheral benzodiazepine receptors(PBR)positron emission tomography (PET) imaging agent, 18F-PBR-111 following intravenous administration in healthy volunteers and Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Short title: Evaluation of PET imaging with PBR-111 in HV and AD subjects Proof of Mechanism. Primary Objective: To evaluate the cerebral distribution of PBR-111 positron emission tomography (PET) for detection/exclusion of microglial activation in patients with Alzheimer's disease subjects compared to healthy volunteers. Secondary objectives: - To assess the dynamic uptake and washout of [18F]PBR-111, a potential imaging bio-marker for inflammatory changes in brain, using positron emission tomography in subjects with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and healthy volunteers (HV). - To perform blood metabolite characterization of [18F]PBR-111 in subjects with AD and HV to determine the nature of metabolites in assessment of [18F]-PBR-111 as a PET brain imaging agent. Name of radioactive drug substance: PBR-111 Dose(s): The applied PBR-111 radioactive dose will be up to 5.0 mCi, diluted in a maximum of 10 ml of saline. The radioligand will be administered as a slow intravenous bolus injection (i.e., 6 sec/ml) into a large vein (e.g., antecubital vein). Route of administration: Intravenous injection Duration of treatment: Single administration of a diagnostic agent Indication: PBR-111 positron emission tomography (PET) imaging has the potential to detect microglial activation. In the presence of PBR-111 uptake (representative of microglial activation), inflammation in the brain can be detected. Diagnosis and main criteria for inclusion: Study participants will be HVs and patients diagnosed with probable AD. HVs must be 18 years of age (at least four subjects 50 years of age) and have no evidence of cognitive impairment or other neurologic disease by medical history. The lack of cognitive impairment will also be based on a Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) of 0. Patients with probable AD must be 50 years of age and must fulfill the National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke, Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association [NINCDS-ADRDA] criteria for probable AD. The CDR score must be 1.0 and 2.0 and have a modified Hachinski of 4. All HVs and all patients with probable AD must be able to comply with all study procedures. Study design: This is a Phase 1, open-label, single-center, non-randomized single dose study to assess the kinetics, clearance and cerebral distribution of PBR-111 PET imaging in detecting microglial activation in the brain in patients with probable AD compared to HVs. All aspects related to image acquisition, processing, and visual as well as quantitative evaluation will be developed, optimized, and validated (where required). Each subject will be required to visit the study center during the screening phase and on the PBR-111 PET imaging day (baseline). A telephone follow-up visit will be performed 7 days (± 3 days) after PBR-111 PET administration. At the screening visit, each subject (or caregiver in the case of AD subjects) will be asked to provide written informed consent or assent. During the screening phase (maximum duration of 60 days) subject medical, neurological, and surgical history, clinical assessments, and a neuro-psychiatric evaluation will be performed on all eligible subjects. Subjects will be allowed to leave the center after all evaluations have been completed. During this period an MRI of the brain will be performed during the screening period. If an MRI of the brain has been performed within six months of the imaging visit using the methods described in the protocol, and there has been no medically significant events in the interim, the previous MRI may be used. During the PBR-111 PET imaging day, all subjects will receive a single intravenous injection of PBR-111 and scanning will be performed over a 3.5 hour period. Each subject will have a telephone follow-up 7 days (± 3 days) thereafter to assess for adverse events. Methodology: - Assessments to provide clinical characterization of the AD subjects will be performed. - After administration of PBR-111, images will be generated with state-of-the-art PET imaging. Images will be assessed quantitatively for the presence of microglial activation by a nuclear physician blinded to clinical data. - Total radioactivity and estimation of the fraction of radioactivity associated to the un-metabolized tracer will be determined. In addition, the metabolite patterns of PBR-111 are determined in venous plasma and arterial samples based on high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analyses. - Arterial sampling will be acquired in the initial two AD and two HV subjects and modeling will be assessed to determine if additional arterial sampling is necessary.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Three-Flavor Neutrino Oscillations with MINOS+

This dissertation presents the analysis of the last two years of data from the MINOS+ long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment. The analysis explores the data above the first oscillation maximum for neutrinos in the standard three-flavor neutrino oscillation model, adding significantly more neutrino events and constraining the model with increased precision. The analysis of the high-energy region of the MINOS+ data set, where previously there has been limited study, can help constrain alternative models or possibly show evidence of new phenomena. The predecessor to MINOS+, the MINOS experiment, measured $\nu_\mu$ disappearance and $\nu_{e}$ appearance using Fermilab's NuMI $\nu_\mu$ beam from 2005 to 2012. During this period the neutrino beam's energy spectrum was focused to peak near the first oscillation maximum. In addition to measuring accelerator beam neutrinos, the MINOS Far Detector collected a sample of atmospheric neutrinos from 2003 to 2011. With the se two samples, MINOS measured the atmospheric mass splitting, $\Delta{m}^2_{32}$, at the 5\% level and the value of $\sin^2\theta_{23}$ at the 15\% level. The data also constrained the CP violating parameter $\delta_{\rm CP}$. The MINOS+ experiment exposed the MINOS detectors to a neutrino beam peaked at energies above the oscillation maximum from 2013 to 2016. With this higher energy neutrino beam, MINOS+ measures the shape of the $\nu_\mu$ survival probability away from the oscillation maximum with unprecedented precision. Measuring the shape of the oscillation probability as a function of neutrino energy is an essential test of the three-flavor oscillation model. At these higher energies where the standard oscillation probability decreases, the neutrino energy spectrum is sensitive to potential perturbations from mixing with additional sterile neutrinos or non-standard neutrino interactions. This analysis of the complete data set from MINOS+ finds no significant deviatio ns from the three-flavor oscillation probability in the ener! gy region of 4 to 10\,GeV covered by the neutrino beam. This provides increased confidence in the three-flavor model in this region and provides new constraints of the atmospheric oscillation parameters, $\Delta{m}^2_{32}$ and $\sin^2\theta_{23}$, by combining the MINOS and MINOS+ data sets. The hierarchy of the neutrino masses is related to the sign of $\Delta{m}^2_{32}$. When $\Delta{m}^2_{32} > 0$, the mass hierarchy is classified as normal. When $\Delta{m}^2_{32} < 0$, the mass hierarchy is classified as inverted. This analysis cannot rule out either of the mass hierarchies. For the normal mass hierarchy, the combined analysis measures $\lvert{\Delta{m}^2_{32}}\rvert = 2.41\pm 0.09 \times 10^{-3}\,{\mathrm{eV}^2}$ at 68\% C.L. and $\sin^2\theta_{23} = 0.42_{-0.06}^{+0.23}$ at 90\% C.L. For the inverted mass hierarchy, this analysis measures $\lvert{\Delta{m}^2_{32}}\rvert = 2.47_{-0.10}^{+0.08} \times 10^{-3}\,{\mathrm{eV}^2}$ at 68\% C.L. and $\sin^2\theta_{23} = 0.42_{ -0.06}^{+0.23}$ at 90\% C.L. In addition to the analysis and measurement of the atmospheric oscillation parameters using MINOS+, this work updates the constraint on $\delta_{\rm CP}$ from MINOS and performs an exploratory combination using $\nu_\mu$ disappearance data from the NOvA experiment. The NOvA experiment uses the NuMI beam in an off-axis strategy that results in a narrow flux of muon neutrinos at the first oscillation maximum and allows precision measurements of the three-flavor parameters. Since NOvA and MINOS+ shared the same neutrino beam, their data can be combined taking advantage of common beam related uncertainties. Combined, the data from the MINOS, MINOS+, and NOvA experiments precisely map $\nu_\mu$ oscillation probabilities using the same neutrino beam in a way that could not be attempted before.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998-2020

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2020 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2020. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in NRC probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed are: subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • HPCS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year) • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: • EPS EDG FTS failure probability • EPS EDG FTLR failure probability • EPS EDG unavailability • EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Analysis of the Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma with the Bivariate Gamma Distribution

Probabilistic proofs of the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma imply that random projection can reduce the dimension of a data set and approximately preserve pairwise distances. If a distance being approximately preserved is called a success, and the complement of this event is called a failure, then such a random projection likely results in no failures. Assuming a Gaussian random projection, the lemma is proved by showing that the no-failure probability is positive using a combination of Bonferroni's inequality and Markov's inequality. This paper modifies this proof in two ways to obtain a greater lower bound on the no-failure probability. First, Bonferroni's inequality is applied to pairs of failures instead of individual failures. Second, since a pair of projection errors has a bivariate gamma distribution, this probability of a pair of successes is bounded using an inequality from [Jensen, 1969]. If n is the number of points to be embedded and μ is the probability of success, then this leads to an increase in the lower bound on the no-failure probability of $\frac{1}{2}$ ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) (1- μ ) 2 is ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) is even and $\frac{1}{2}$ (($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$)-1) (1- μ ) 2 if ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) is odd. For example, if n =10 5 points are to be embedded in k =10 4 dimensions with a tolerance of ϵ=0.1, then the improvement in the lower bound is on the order of 10 -14 . We also show that further improvement is possible if the inequality in [Jensen, 1969] extends to three successes, though we do not have a proof of this result.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Component Performance Study: Emergency Diesel Generators 1998–2022

This report presents an enhanced performance evaluation of the emergency power system (EPS) and high-pressure core spray (HPCS) emergency diesel generators (EDGs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. This report evaluates component performance over time using (1) Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) data from 1998 through 2022 and (2) maintenance unavailability performance data from Mitigating Systems Performance Index (MSPI) Basis Document data from 2002 through 2022. The objective is to show estimates of current failure probabilities and rates related to EDGs, trend these data on an annual basis, determine if the current data are consistent with the probability distributions currently recommended for use in Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) probabilistic risk assessments, show how the reliability data differ for different EDG manufacturers and for EDGs with different ratings; and summarize the subcomponents, causes, detection methods, and recovery associated with each EDG failure mode. The EDG failure modes considered are fail to start (FTS), fail to load and run (FTLR), and fail to run after one hour of operation (FTR>1H). Engineering analyses were performed with respect to time-period and failure mode without regard to the actual number of EDGs at each plant. The factors analyzed include subcomponent, failure cause, detection method, recovery, manufacturer, and EDG rating. The following increasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) HPCS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of start demands (demands per reactor year), and (3) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR demands. The following decreasing trends were identified for EDGs for the most recent 10-year period: (1) EPS EDG FTS failure probability, (2) EPS EDG FTLR failure probability, (3) EPS EDG unavailability, and (4) EPS and HPCS EDG frequency of FTLR events (failures per reactor year).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Recent advances in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) have provided the capability for exact inference: computing a closed-form probability distribution for a given probabilistic program. In particular, the new language Roulette uses a language oriented programming (LOP) approach, wherein analysts build new programming languages on top of a set of primitives provided by Roulette, which then translates these structures into a weighted model counting problem which can be solved by automated reasoning tools. However, because Roulette provides few convenience features, developing these new languages is challenging even for expert users. We developed a standard library of common probability functions for Roulette with the goal of improved usability. This included approximation of continuous probability density functions using discrete probability mass functions. We demonstrated this approach by modeling a cosmic ray striking a RAM controller. We found that Roulette provides a powerful interface for highly expressive probabilistic programs to be generated. In collaboration with the NNSA Advanced Simulation and Computing program, which resulted in development of a tool called Circulette, we were able to model complex circuits expressed in Verilog using probabilistic programs with an expressivity not previously possible. Our research question that motivated the development of a Roulette standard library was to determine whether non-experts could use a PPL to model relevant problems regarding radiation effects on microelectronics. This standard library improved the expressivity of Roulette by implementing common probability density functions, mathematical operators on distributions, and support for empirical distributions. While Roulette is a powerful modeling language, the untyped, LOP approach makes error messages difficult to understand and requires expert aid. We recommend further research on Roulette, especially with its error messages, to enable improved usability. At the same time, this project demonstrated that for users familiar with Roulette and the LOP approach, Roulette provides powerful new capabilities that can be integrated with other Sandia modeling capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗