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At least 1,747 records · Page 97
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

The Messy Aerosol Submodel MADE3 (v2.0b): Description and a Box Model Test

We introduce MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, 3rd generation), an aerosol dynamics submodel for application within the MESSy framework (Modular Earth Submodel System). MADE3 builds on the predecessor aerosol submodels MADE and MADE-in. Its main new features are the explicit representation of coarse particle interactions both with other particles and with condensable gases, and the inclusion of hydrochloric acid (HCl)chloride (Cl) partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. The aerosol size distribution is represented in the new submodel as a superposition of nine lognormal modes: one for fully soluble particles, one for insoluble particles, and one for mixed particles in each of three size ranges (Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges). In order to assess the performance of MADE3 we compare it to its predecessor MADE and to the much more detailed particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC in a box model simulation of an idealized marine boundary layer test case. MADE3 and MADE results are very similar, except in the coarse mode, where the aerosol is dominated by sea spray particles. Cl is reduced in MADE3 with respect to MADE due to the HClCl partitioning that leads to Cl removal from the sea spray aerosol in our test case. Additionally, aerosol nitrate concentration is higher in MADE3 due to the condensation of nitric acid on coarse particles. MADE3 and PartMC- MOSAIC show substantial differences in the fine particle size distributions (sizes about 2 micrometers) that could be relevant when simulating climate effects on a global scale. Nevertheless, the agreement between MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC is very good when it comes to coarse particle size distribution, and also in terms of aerosol composition. Considering these results and the well-established ability of MADE in reproducing observed aerosol loadings and composition, MADE3 seems suitable for application within a global model.

Mixing state↗
NASA NTRS1977

Effect of Flame Stabilizer Design on Performance and Exhaust Pollutants of a Two-Row Swirl-Can Combustor Operated to Near-Stoichiometric Conditions

Emissions and performance characteristics were determined for two full annulus modular combustors operated to near stoichiometric fuel air ratios. The tests were conducted to obtain stoichiometric data at inlet air temperatures from 756 to 894 K and to determine the effects of a flat plate circular flame stabilizer with upstream fuel injection and a contraswirl flame stabilizer with downstream fuel injection. Levels of unburned hydrocarbons were below 0.50 gram per kilogram of fuel for both combustors and thus there was no detectable difference in the two methods of fuel injection. The contraswirl flame stabilizer did not produce the level of mixing obtained with a flat plate circular flame stabilizer. It did produce higher levels of oxides of nitrogen, which peaked at a fuel air ratio of 0.037. For the flat plate circular flame stabilizer, oxides of nitrogen emission levels were still increasing with fuel air ratio to the maximum tested value of 0.045.

Biaglow, James A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Distributed Simulation-to-Flight Framework to Support Investigating Trust/Trustworthiness in Multi-Agent Systems

As autonomous systems continue to grow both in use and complexity, the necessity for robust and extensible simulation-to-flight frameworks is paramount for establishing an effective architecture for autonomous systems. Hardware test flights are time-consuming and cost prohibitive during early system design and development. Simulation environments can be useful tools to accelerate algorithm development and testing. However, transitions from simulation to flight (sim-to-flight) can be challenging, unless systems are designed with this transition in mind and with the necessary capabilities built into the architecture and framework. One of the objectives of Autonomy Teaming and TRAjectories for Complex Trusted Operational Reliability (ATTRACTOR) was to design and develop a distributed mixed-reality simulation environment to begin establishing a basis for certification of autonomous systems via research into trust and trustworthiness. ATTRACTOR’s objective was to construct computational concepts of trustworthiness and justifiable trust in multi-agent autonomous teams, to inform future certification of safety-critical and time-critical autonomous systems in aviation. In this paper, we present an autonomous systems architecture and development framework paired with a persistent distributed modeling and simulation (ModSim) environment for test and evaluation of autonomous systems. They were designed under ATTRACTOR in order to measure and establish trustworthiness and trust in single-and multi-agent human-machine systems whether these machines are fixed-wing general aviation, rotary-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), ground rovers, or even spacecraft. The Autonomous Entity Operational Network (AEON) framework enables autonomous system development with an easily extensible collection of libraries and plug-n-play nodes facilitated by the Data Distribution Service (DDS) communication protocol standard. The Baseline Environment for Autonomous Modeling (BEAM) simulation environment is a distributed mixed-reality Unity™-based environment built around the same DDS communication paradigm allowing for easy integration with AEON-based autonomous applications, enabling sim-to-flight with minimal configuration changes. Using AEON and BEAM, source code that runs in simulation ports directly to hardware and has successfully flown in the National Airspace System (NAS) at NASA LaRC many times over the lifetime of ATTRACTOR.

Benjamin N Kelley↗
DOE OSTI2023

Testing of Microchannels and Lab-Grown Stress Corrosion Cracks for Quantification of Aerosol Transmission

The formation of a stress corrosion crack (SCC) in the canister wall of a dry cask storage system (DCSS) has been identified as a potential issue for the long-term storage of spent nuclear fuel. The presence of an SCC in a storage system could represent a through-wall flow path from the canister interior to the environment. Modern, vertical DCSSs are of particular interest due to the commercial practice of using higher backfill pressures in the canister, up to approximately 800 kPa, compared to their horizontal counterparts. This pressure differential offers a relatively high driving potential for blowdown of any particulates that might be present in the canister. In this study, the rates of gas flow and aerosol transmission of a spent fuel surrogate through an engineered microchannel with dimensions representative of an SCC were evaluated experimentally using coupled mass flow and aerosol analyzers. The microchannel was formed by mating two gage blocks with a linearly tapering slot orifice nominally 13 μm (0.005 in.) tall on the upstream side and 25 μm (0.0010 in.) tall on the downstream side. The orifice is 12.7 mm (0.500 in.) wide by 8.86 mm (0.349 in.) long (flow length). Surrogate aerosols of cerium oxide, CeO 2 , were seeded and mixed with either helium or air inside a pressurized tank. The aerosol characteristics were measured immediately upstream and downstream of the simulated SCC at elevated and ambient pressures, respectively. These data sets are intended to add to previous testing that characterized SCCs under well-controlled boundary conditions through the inclusion of testing improvements that establish initial conditions in a more consistent way. While the engineered microchannel has dimensions similar to actual SCCs, it does not reproduce the tortuous path the aerosol laden flow would have to traverse for eventual transmission. SCCs can be rapidly grown in a laboratory setting given the right conditions, and initial characterization and clean-flow testing has begun on lab grown crack samples provided to Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Many such samples are required to produce statistically relevant transmission results, and SNL is developing a procedure to produce samples in welded steel plates. These ongoing testing efforts are focused on understanding the evolution in both size and quantity of a hypothetical release of aerosolized spent fuel particles from failed fuel to the canister interior and ultimately through an SCC.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Calculating Mode Mixity in Interlaminar Fracture of Composite Laminates

To accurately predict delamination under mixed-mode loading, cohesive elements must partition the energies dissipated in Mode I and Mode II correctly. The ability of cohesive models to predict mode mixity was evaluated by performing analyses of the single leg bending (SLB) test, which exhibits a variable mode mixity with crack length. Accordingly, two numerical integration methods were developed to compute the energy partitioning: (i) a local calculation of the accumulated work of tractions at each point along the crack path, and (ii) a global J-integral “snapshot” calculation along a contour around the process zone. In the case of a composite laminate with properties characterized by short fracture process zone (FPZ), the results of these two methods correlate well with each other and with a linear elastic fracture mechanics solution. However, FPZscan be long due to fiber bridging or due to the intrinsic toughness of the material. Then, the results of mode-mixity calculations obtained with various methods vary widely from each other. It is argued that the global J-integral calculation is the most accurate interpretation of the energy release rate and mode mixity for either short or long process zones. This solution will provide a more accurate characterization of resistance curves and mode mixity in experimental results, and it will also guide the development of more accurate mixed-mode cohesive laws for tougher materials characterized by strong R-curve responses, such as thermo-plastic composites.

cohesive zone analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulatory Spike Testing of RPP-WTP LAW and HLW Glasses for Compliance with Land Disposal Restrictions, VSL-03R3760-1, Rev. 1

The United States Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Hanford site is the current location of storage of about 50 million gallons of mixed waste. This waste is stored in underground tanks at the Hanford site and is both a listed and characteristic waste, as defined in 40 CFR Part 261, and a dangerous waste according to Chapter 173-303 of the Washington Administrative Code (WAC). The waste is also subject to the Land Disposal Restrictions (LDR) (40 CFR Part 268 and WAC 173-303-140). The River Protection Project - Waste Treatment Plant (RPP-WTP) will provide DOE with a means for treating this waste by vitrification (for subsequent disposal). The tank waste will be partitioned into low and high activity fractions, which will then be vitrified respectively into Immobilized Low Activity Waste (ILAW) and Immobilized High Level Waste (IHLW) products. The ILAW product will be disposed of in an engineered facility on the Hanford site while the IHLW product will be directed to the national deep geological disposal facility for high level nuclear waste. The ILAW and IHLW products must meet a variety of requirements with respect to protection of the environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gasification of Mixed Blends of Coal, Biomass, and Plastic Waste

The objective of this DOE-funded project by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), Hamilton Maurer International (HMI) and Sotacarbo S.p.A. (Sotacarbo), is to qualify coal, biomass, and plastic waste blends based on performance testing of selected pellet recipes in a pilot-scale updraft moving-bed gasifier. The testing provides relevant data to advance the commercial-scale design of the moving-bed gasifier to be able to successfully use these feedstocks to produce hydrogen. In particular, the effects of the waste plastics on feedstock development (i.e., blending and pelletizing) and the resulting products (i.e., syngas compositions, organic condensate production, and ash characteristics) are a focus. The gasifier is Hamilton Mauer International, Inc. (HMI)’s moving-bed gasifier, which has been proven capable of gasifying nearly all coal ranks. It has also shown the ability in prior testing work to gasify wood chips. However, mixtures of these fuels with plastic wastes had not yet been prepared and gasified together. The feedstocks were prepared by California Pellet Mill (CPM) under contract to HMI. The technical tasks for this research project included: • Feed Procurement and Preparation: Nine different feedstocks were prepared from varying compositions of PRB coal, corn stover biomass, and car fluff waste plastics. Fuel pellets were produced by California Pellet Mill (CPM) and shipped to Sotacarbo’s test facility in Italy. • Test Plan Development: A test plan was created to define the test runs to be performed. The test plan detailed the different tests that were run, instrumentation used, extractive samples taken, and relevant figures of merit. • Gasifier Testing: Tests were performed in the pilot-scale gasifier at Sotacarbo using nine different fuel feedstocks generated from varying mixtures of coal, biomass, and plastic wastes. The testing provides information on gasification reaction efficiency/performance, yielding relevant data for models used to scale up the gasifier design. This task will also included work to reassemble the gasifier at Sotacarbo and perform a baseline 100% coal run. • Data Analysis and Reporting: Review of the data, determination of figures of merit, and interpretation of the results was reported. The results can be used to specify the range of feedstock blends that can be successfully gasified as well as quantify gasifier outputs based on specific blends. The tri-fuel pelletizing conducted at CPM and gasification testing results from Sotacarbo’s 30mm up draft moving bed gasifier are significant. Providing data for an established gasifier to help accelerate its updated design to be able to accommodate feedstocks composed of coal, biomass, and plastic waste. This should ultimately lead to development and commercialization of a lower cost, white hydrogen generation system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1984

Repeatability of mixed-mode adhesive debonding

The repeatability of debond growth rates in adhesively bonded subjected to constant-amplitude cyclic loading was studied. Debond growth rates were compared from two sets of cracked-lap-shear specimens that were fabricated by two different manufacturers and tested in different laboratories. The fabrication method and testing procedures were identical for both sets of specimens. The specimens consisted of aluminum adherends bonded with FM-73 adhesive. Critical values of strain-energy-release rate were also determined from specimens that were monotonically loaded to failure. The test results showed that the debond growth rates for the two sets of specimens were within a scatter band which is similar to that observed in fatigue crack growth in metals. Cyclic debonding occurred at strain-energy-release rates that were more than an order of magnitude less than the critical strain-energy-release rate in static tests.

Everett, R. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mixing 4D-Equipped and Unequipped Aircraft in the Terminal Area

On-board 4D guidance systems, which predict and control the touchdown time of an aircraft to an accuracy of a few seconds throughout the descent, were developed and demonstrated in several flight test programs. However, in addition to refinements of the on board system, two important issues still need to be considered. First, in order to make effective use of these on-board systems, it is necessary to understand and develop the interactions of the airborne and air traffic control (ATC) system in the proposed advanced environment. Unless the total system is understood, the advanced on-board system may prove unusable from an ATC standpoint. Second, in planning for a future system in which all aircraft are 4D equipped, it is necessary to confront the transition situation in which some percentage of traffic must still be handled by conventional means. In terms of 4D, this means that some traffic must still be given radar vectors and speed clearances (that is, be spaced by conventional distance separation techniques), while the 4D-equipped aircraft need to be issued time assignments. These apparent differences are reconciled and efficient ATC operation is developed.

Tobias, L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Repeatability of mixed-mode adhesive debonding

The repeatability of debond growth rates in adhesively bonded subjected to constant-amplitude cyclic loading was studied. Debond growth rates were compared from two sets of cracked-lap-shear specimens that were fabricated by two different manufacturers and tested in different laboratories. The fabrication method and testing procedures were identical or both sets of specimens. The specimens consisted of aluminum adherends bonded with FM-73 adhesive. Critical values of strain-energy-release rate were also determined from specimens that were monotonically loaded to failure. The test results showed that the debond growth rates for the two sets of specimens were within a scatter band which is similar to that observed in fatigue crack growth in metals. Cyclic debonding occurred at strain-energy-release rates that were more than an order of magnitude less than the critical strain-energy-release rate in static tests.

Everett, R. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Crystallographic and TEM Features of a TBC/Ti2AlC MAX Phase Interface after 1300°C Burner Rig Oxidation

A FIB/STEM interfacial study was performed on a TBC/Ti 2 AlC MAX phase system, oxidized in an aggressive burner rig test (Mach 0.3 at 1300 °C for 500 h). The 7YSZ TBC, α-Al 2 O 3 TGO, and MAXthal 211 TM Ti 2 AlC base were variously characterized by TEM/STEM, EDS, SADP, and HRTEM. The YSZ was a mix of “clean” featureless and “faulted” high contrast grains. The latter exhibited ferro-elastic domains of high Y content tetragonal t″ variants. No martensite was observed. The TGO was essentially a duplex α-Al 2 O 3 structure of inner columnar plus outer equiaxed grains. It maintained a perfectly intact, clean interface with the Ti 2 AlC substrate. The Ti 2 AlC substrate exhibited no interfacial Al-depletion zone but, rather, numerous faults along the basal plane of the hexagonal structure. These are believed to offer a means of depleting Al by forming crystallographic, low-Al planar defects, proposed as Ti 2.5 AlC 1.5 . These characterizations support and augment prior optical, SEM, and XRD findings that demonstrated remarkable durability for the YSZ/Ti 2 AlC MAX phase system in aggressive burner tests.

TI2AlC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of DWPF Chemical Process Cell Using a Reaction Calorimeter

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) converts liquid radioactive waste into glass using a Sludge Receipt Adjustment Tank (SRAT) and Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) in addition to other processes. The SRAT and SME processes can be simulated on a small-scale using the Mettler-Toledo Reaction Calorimeter (RC1). This equipment is able to automate the execution and monitoring of experiments involving nonradioactive chemical simulants. During the chemical processing of sludge in the SRAT process, foam begins to form and can foam over the reaction vessel. The current antifoam used at DWPF creates a risk of increased flammability and has a limited pH range. Usually, mercury is circulated back into the reaction vessel during the SRAT process, making it difficult to remove. To combat foam over, novel antifoams will be tested during the boil-up process using the RC1. To improve mercury extraction, 3D-printed coalescer columns will be tested within the Mercury Water Wash Tank (MWWT) of the RC1. Testing of Simulant Sludge Batch 6 (SB6) was performed to ensure: the sludge would form a stable foam at boiling during full SRAT/SME runs; the antifoam would reduce the amount of foam within the vessel The sludge and a Precipitate Reactor Feed Tank (PRFT) simulant with monosodium titanate (MST) were mixed separately, combined, and then heated to boiling. As shown below, the antifoam used was able to eliminate the foam within the vessel, as expected. The FormLabs Form2 3D Printer can be used to create roughly 3-inch tall and 1-inch diameter columns from clear and ceramic resins. The columns will utilize chemical and physical forces to draw the mercury out of a condensed offgas stream leaving the RC1 reaction vessel. These columns will be tested during full SRAT/SME runs on the basis of how well they are able to collect elemental mercury. In preparation for full-scale runs, the RC1 equipment was assembled onto a custom table and tested with water runs. The software used to control automation, iControl, has a user-friendly interface that allows the experiment to be altered as needed. An example of the data recorded during an experimental run is represented in Figure 1 below. Water runs were utilized as a way to prove if the RC1 system was functioning in the following areas: Boil-up rates, Chemical additions using pumps, Temperature readings, Balance readings, Probe readings, Offgas system, Agitation. Future Plans: Five novel antifoams will be tested during full SRAT/SME runs. The most effective antifoam will be utilized in DWPF's Chemical Process Cell. The design of the Mercury Extraction Coalescer can be further manipulated to increase the extraction of not only elemental mercury, but other heavy metals in environmental remediation processes as well.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1997

Noise Reduction with Lobed Mixers: Nozzle-Length and Free-Jet Speed Effects

Acoustic test results are presented for 1/4th-scaled nozzles with internal lobed mixers used for reduction of subsonic jet noise of turbofan engines with bypass ratio above 5 and jet speeds up to 830 ft/s. One coaxial and three forced lobe mixers were tested with variations in lobe penetration, cut-outs in lobe-sidewall, lobe number and nozzle-length. Measured exit flow profiles and thrusts are used to assist the inferences from acoustic data. It is observed that lobed mixers reduce the low-frequency noise due to more uniformly mixed exit flow; but they may also increase the high-frequency noise at peak perceived noise (PNL) angle and angles upstream of it due to enhanced mixing inside the nozzle. Cut-outs and low lobe penetration reduce the annoying portion of the spectrum but lead to less uniform exit flow. Due to the dominance of internal duct noise in unscalloped, high-penetration mixers their noise is not reduced as much with increase in free-jet speed as that of coaxial or cut-out lobed mixers. The latter two mixers also show no change in PNL over the wide range of nozzle-lengths tested because most of their noise sources are outside the nozzle; whereas, the former show an increase in noise with decrease in nozzle-length.

Mengle, Vinod G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing Active Distribution Systems Resilience by Fully Distributed Self-Healing Strategy

Distributed restoration can exploit smart grid technologies to enhance the resilience of active distribution networks toward a self-healing smart grid. However, the large number of decision variables, especially the binary ones for reconfiguration, bring challenges to developing scalable distributed distribution service restoration (DDSR) strategies. This paper proposes a fully distributed solution procedure based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) for mixed-integer programming problems and applies to develop the DDSR framework. The method consists of relax-drive-polish phases, 1) relaxing binary variables, and applying the convex ADMM as a warm start; 2) driving the solutions toward Boolean values through a proximal operator; 3) fixing the obtained binding binary variables and solving the rest of the problem to polish results and achieve a high-quality suboptimal solution. Then, an autonomous clustering strategy and consensus ADMM are integrated with the proposed method to realize the fully distributed cluster-based framework of DDSR. This framework can first determine DER scheduling and switch status for reconfiguration to energize the out-of-service areas from local faults, and then provide the load restoration solution in a distributed manner for total blackouts in large-scale distribution networks. Furthermore, the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed DDSR framework are demonstrated through testing on the IEEE 123-node, IEEE 8500-node, and synthetic 100k-node test feeders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heavy neutral leptons at muon colliders

The future high-energy muon colliders, featuring both high energy and low background, could play a critical role in our searches for new physics. The smallness of neutrino mass is a puzzle of particle physics. Broad classes of solutions to the neutrino puzzles can be best tested by seeking the partners of SM light neutrinos, dubbed as heavy neutral leptons (HNLs), at muon colliders. We can parametrize HNLs in terms of the mass m N and the mixing angle with ℓ-flavor U ℓ . In this work, we focus on the regime m N > O(100) GeV and study the projected sensitivities on the |U ℓ | 2 – m N plane with the full-reconstructable HNL decay into a hadronic W and a charged lepton. The projected reach in |U ℓ | 2 leads to the best sensitivities in the TeV realm.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protein-based approach for high-purity Sc, Y, and grouped lanthanide separation

Rare earth elements (REEs: Sc, Y, La- Lu) are irreplaceable components in many clean energy and consumer technologies. However, the extraction and subsequent separation of individual REEs from ore-based feedstocks remains a significant economic and environmental challenge. Here in this work, we investigated the intra-REE separation potential of lanmodulin (LanM), a natural protein from Methylorubrum extorquens that has emerged as a sustainable potential alternative to conventional solvent extraction-based separation. By determining the intra-REE selectivity of immobilized LanM and systematically testing pH-based and small chelator-based (i.e., citrate and malonate) desorption processes, we established the framework and methodology for achieving select individual and grouped REE separations from a mixed REE feedstock. We show that Sc forms the tightest complex with LanM among REEs but can be readily and selectively desorbed using malonate to generate high-purity Sc (>99 % purity, >99 % yield) in a single adsorption/desorption cycle. We further show that the intrinsic REE selectivity of LanM is sufficient to achieve heavy REE (HREE) separation from light and middle REEs (L-MREEs), yielding an yttrium-enriched product. This separation effect is further magnified by pairing LanM’s unique M-LREE preference with a HREE-preferring chelator in the desorption process, which enriches HREE and MREE fractions relative to low value, abundant La/Ce. Finally, by combining pH- and citrate-based desorption processes in a two-cycle separation scheme, we demonstrate the generation of fractions highly enriched in Y, Gd-Lu, Pr-Eu, and La-Ce. Collectively, these data support the application of a LanM-based approach for achieving impactful REE separations from mixed REE feedstocks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

One-Step Radical-Induced Synthesis of Graft Copolymers for Effective Compatibilization of Polyethylene and Polypropylene

The synthesis of copolymers from high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and isotactic polypropylene (iPP) has gained increasing attention due to their ability to improve the recycling of incompatible mixed polyolefin waste feed streams. Herein, we report a new radical grafting process that yields HDPE-g-iPP copolymers from HDPE and iPP by using a commercially available peroxide. Tensile testing of brittle 70/30 HDPE/iPP mixtures with these graft copolymers added showed promising compatibilization, improving the elongation at break of the blends from 20% up to 1080%. Detailed kinetic studies coupled with thermal and rheological characterization revealed optimized conditions for HDPE and iPP macroradical coupling and a deeper understanding of the grafting reaction. This optimization yielded HDPE-g-iPP copolymers that compatibilize HDPE and iPP blends at loadings as low as 2.5 wt %. In conclusion, the versatility of this macroradical grafting reaction was demonstrated by preparing an effective compatibilizer from untreated postconsumer waste plastics.

compatibilization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty

Abstract Previous studies investigating deep decarbonization of bulk electric power systems and wholesale electricity markets have not sufficiently explored how future grid pathways could affect the grid's vulnerability to hydrometeorological uncertainty on multiple timescales. Here, we employ a grid operations model and a large synthetic weather ensemble to “stress test” a range of future grid pathways for the U.S. West Coast developed by ReEDS, a well‐known capacity planning model. Our results show that gradual changes in the underlying capacity mix from 2020 to 2050 can cause significant “re‐ranking” of weather years in terms of annual wholesale electricity prices (with “good” years becoming bad, and vice versa). Nonetheless, we find the highest and lowest ranking price years in terms of average electricity price remain mostly tied to extremes in hydropower availability (streamflow) and load (summer temperatures), with the strongest sensitivities related to drought. Seasonal dynamics seen today involving spring snowmelt and hot, dry summers remain well‐defined out to 2050. In California, future supply shortfalls in our model are concentrated in the evening and occur mostly during periods of high temperature anomalies in late summer months and in late winter; in the Pacific Northwest, supply shortfalls are much more strongly tied to negative streamflow anomalies. Under our more robust sampling of stationary hydrometeorological uncertainty, we also find that the ratio of dis‐patchable thermal (i.e., natural gas) capacity to wind and solar required to ensure grid reliability can differ significantly from values reported by ReEDS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗