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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Capital Cost Scaling Methodology (Revision 4 Report)

NETL regularly updates legacy analysis with new studies as the Department of Energy objectives change, technology performance improves, costs are reduced, regulations change, market drivers are established, fuel prices fluctuate, and any number of other relevant factors vary in the market. As legacy studies are updated by NETL, the underlying performance and cost of the cases changes, and the methods for interpreting and scaling the cost estimates change. Therefore, it is important that NETL maintain public guidance documents associated with different sets of cost estimates that delineate how a specific set should be scaled. This QGESS report, providing guidance on capital cost scaling, should generally be applied to NETL case costs included in the report “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity Revision 4” (BBR4), or any cases derived from the cases presented in the referenced report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometry Instrumentation and Methodology

This report reviews instrumentation and techniques utilized in liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS). The analytical advantages and disadvantages of each major component of different LC-MS systems are discussed, along with a comparison between LC-MS, liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), and gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS). This report also details future work regarding the use of LC-MS/MS to analyze and identify degradation products from an extensive accelerated aging process of nitroplasticizer (NP). This report is the first of a series on the use of LC-MS to understand the degradation mechanisms of NP.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Addressing Human and Organizational Factors in Nuclear Industry Modernization: An Operationally Focused Approach to Process and Methodology

Utility owners and operators of commercial nuclear power plants in the United States (U.S.) are and will be modernizing their nuclear power plants by performing a digital transformation involving design of an integrated set of systems that together enable a technology centric operating plant. The Plant Modernization Pathway of the U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program has a strategic action plan that lays the groundwork for a digital transformation of the nuclear industry. The model for this transformation is an advanced concept of operations, with an end point vision, “To achieve the maximum aggregate benefit enabled by this digital transformation.” To achieve this, the digital infrastructure for a nuclear plant must be designed as an integrated set of systems that together enable a technology centric operating model. The digital transformation process obviously needs to involve technology considerations and systems engineering, but it also needs to include human and organizational expertise. Thus, human and organizational factors, including sociotechnical systems methods and techniques (e.g., Cognitive Systems Engineering, Systems Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes, human systems integration, and Macroergonomics) need to be considered for digital transformation projects in order to effectively integrate human and organizational expertise efforts into the new work system that results from nuclear power plant digital modernization. That is, the work system is the basic unit of sociotechnical systems analysis and contains three components: personnel, technical, and organization and management. These components should be jointly optimized with respect to the interdependence of systems performance criteria of effectiveness, efficiency and safety. Joint optimization can be achieved through the application of three human and organization functions: knowledge representation, knowledge elicitation, and cross-functional integration. This report provides a strategic framework for effective integration of human and organizational expertise within nuclear power plant digital modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

¬¬Integration of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology into Parallel Discrete Event Simulator Framework

Parallel Discrete Events Simulation (PDES) is becoming increasingly important to lab efforts in security and intelligence. It is used to model complex asynchronous systems such as computer networks, satellite systems, vehicular traffic, and human performance. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques have become a mainstay of Verification and Validation (V&V) efforts on physics simulations. However, PDES models are very different from traditional physics simulations, and research into UQ techniques for PDES is in its infancy. It is not clear which traditional UQ techniques can be applied to PDES, or what new techniques will need to be developed. The goal of this project was to identify existing UQ techniques that can be applied to PDES, and to develop new techniques as necessary. The project implemented or developed techniques to handle issues that do not appear in traditional physics simulations, but are common among PDES, including sampling techniques for high-dimensional homogenous inputs, response surfaces for high-variance heteroskedastic output, and characterization of skewed output distributions. These are foundational UQ techniques that must be used in any complete UQ analysis (Tong 2018).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Public Views on Nuclear Facility Siting and Radioactive Waste Management in the United States: Methodology and Response Reference Report for the 2017 Energy and Environment Survey

This report presents the questions and responses to a nationwide survey of U.S. residents taken May 2017. The focus of the 2017 survey is public perceptions on (1) nuclear energy and new nuclear technology, such as small modular reactors; (2) the risks and benefits of nuclear energy; (3) different options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF); and (4) the role of individuals, organizations and elected officials in locating SNF facilities. Highlights of survey results related to nuclear energy found the U.S. public (1) wants nuclear energy to continue to contribute 20% of total electrical power produced for the next 20 years; (2) is more supportive of adding new reactors at existing sites than at new sites; and (3) is more supportive of small modular reactors than traditional reactors. Highlights related to risks and benefits of nuclear energy include (1) the public believes that terrorist attacks are the greatest threat and that energy independence is the greatest benefit; (2) 56% of the public believes that nuclear power has both high benefit and high risk; (3) the 2011 accident at the Fukushima nuclear facility continues to negatively influence the perceived benefits and risks of nuclear energy except for those who perceive nuclear power as low risk and high benefit; (4) building new reactors is supported by those who perceive nuclear power as low risk and high benefit, and opposed by those who perceive it as high risk and low benefit. Highlights related to SNF management options include (1) support remains higher for permanent disposal than either consolidated interim storage or continued on-site storage; (2) support for private initiatives for interim storage in New Mexico and Texas are higher than generic storage and disposal options; (3) the general public is more likely to increase support if a majority of the local and state residents support an SNF facility. Highlights related to the role of individuals, organizations, and elected officials include (1) 54% of the public agrees that if an SNF facility is deemed safe by regulators, political considerations should not derail the location; (2) 47% of the US public agrees that non-governmental organizations should be able to provide input to locating an SNF facility; (3) 36% of the public believes that the federal government should lead siting of an SNF facility while 25% believes private companies should lead; (4) 81% of the public believes local residents and farmers/ranchers should have a say in the final decision on locating a SNF facility and 56% believe that they should have veto power; and (5) only 27% of the public believes the state governor should have a say and veto power.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Agent-Based Transportation Energy Analysis Model: Methodology and Initial Results (CRADA 16155)

This report documents the efforts of Argonne and Exelon researchers to implement an agent-based model of charging demand and infrastructure expansion for the seven-county Chicago metropolitan area. Conducted as a project task under a broad Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) between Argonne National Laboratory and Exelon, the project spanned a roughly 15-month time period during which Argonne and Exelon researchers developed a close working relationship. In addition to face-to-face meetings - both at the Laboratory and at Exelon’s offices in Washington, DC - bi-weekly web-enabled meetings and a file-sharing folder facilitated interaction and document sharing among the project team. Team members represented a broad cross-section of skill sets and internal organizations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NNSA GenScen 2.1 Methodology

Nuclear weapons stockpile planning is a complex process. The Non-Proliferation Treaty,' New START Treaty,2 DOE/NNSA, STRATCOM, Navy, Air Force, and Executive-Branch all have objectives that drive requirements for the types and quantities of nuclear weapons, which in turn drive how nuclear weapons are designed, manufactured, tested, maintained, deployed, transported, stored, retired, and ultimately dismantled. An estimated 200 distinct individuals contribute to the development, completion, and approval of this plan. And once that plan is completed, herein called the N NSA Program of Record (POR), ensuring that the plan is feasible — that the stockpile work can get done — ensures that the Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) can deliver the intended nuclear force posture.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

MSR Fuel Salt Qualification Methodology

This report documents the continuing activities at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) efforts to develop an efficient, appropriate process for liquid fuel salt system qualification. Fuel qualification for salt-cooled molten salt reactors (MSRs) is part of the ongoing coated particle fuel qualification effort. Fuel qualification is a process which provides high confidence that physical and chemical behavior of fuel is sufficiently understood so that it can be adequately modeled for both normal and accident conditions, reflecting the role of the fuel design in the overall safety of the facility. Uncertainties are defined so that calculated fission product releases include the appropriate margins to ensure conservative calculation of radiological dose consequences. The initial phase of ORNL’s activities is documented in ORNL/LTR-2018/1045 Molten Salt Reactor Fuel Qualification Considerations and Challenges.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative (March 2020 Methodology Report)

Data for thousands of systems by multiple sources were transmitted to NREL for evaluation. Initial automated data quality assurance (QA) checks identified hundreds of systems (QA Tier 1) with high-quality meteorological and AC production data and hundreds of QA Tier 2 systems with adequate data quality. A standard RdTools analysis was conducted for these systems, evaluating performance loss on an annualized basis. To date with the systems evaluated so far, we find a median performance loss rate (aka Rd or degradation rates) for the entire fleet of -0.72%/year based on individual inverter data, which is in line with historical degradation rates previously published for modules and systems (-0.5% to -0.9% / yr, Jordan et al. 2016). A fleet-scale distribution based on revenue-grade meter data rather than inverter AC (alternating current) data yields a slightly different result. We are working to understand the difference between this result and the inverter-based result of -0.72%/year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Uncertainty Analysis and Error Propagation Methodology for Reporting Thermophysical Properties Measurement of Gen3 CSP Materials

This document describe multiple-measurement uncertainty analysis that is implemented to the thermophysical properties measurement or dataset of Gen3 CSP materials curated in an online database (http://gen3csp.gatech.edu/). This uncertainty analysis is based on a textbook method, that follows the American National Standard Institute/American Society of Mechanical Engineering (ANSI/ASME) Power Test Codes (PTC) 19.1 Test Uncertainty and NIST Technical Note 1297. It is also consistent with the international guidelines established by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cybersecurity Assessment Methodology for International Safeguards

International nuclear safeguards are technical measures implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify the correctness and completeness of declarations made by States about their nuclear activities. The systems used to verify such activities include electronic and digital hardware and software components capable of data collection, processing, analysis, storage and transmission. Despite increasing efforts to protect digital systems against unauthorized access or attack through cybersecurity measures, these systems are not immune to cyber exploitation that could compromise their integrity or reliability. Previous versions of these systems did not include capabilities that exist today, such as BluetoothTM and GPS. The inclusion of these new capabilities, as well as new data processing and storage mechanisms, adds new attack vectors and opportunities for adversaries to exploit the devices that did not previously exist. As mentioned in the above referenced Cybersecurity for Safeguards study, cyber-domain vulnerabilities present risks to the equipment used to perform the international nuclear safeguards mission. The IAEA has produced guidance on the protection of nuclear facilities and their computer systems against cyber threats, but these documents do not specifically address the risks to safeguards or safeguards equipment. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) Office of International Nuclear Safeguards/Safeguards Technology Development (NA-241) sponsored Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia, SNL) and the Idaho National Laboratory (Idaho, INL) to conduct a one-year study to evaluate cyber related vulnerabilities in safeguards equipment and develop recommendations for the mitigation of any identified risks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NFD Methodology Report

The NetFlow Dynamics (NFD) model was developed for estimating the availability of a commodity supplied by a national- or regional-scale infrastructure following unexpected disruption of one or more of its components. The large scope of the disruptions of interest produce changes in availability lasting days to weeks. Consequently, the model does not resolve daily variations in system state and does not include the long-term processes that cause infrastructures to evolve as assets are added and removed according to owners ’planning decisions. NFD simulates fluid flow, including petroleum and other incompressible fluids, as well as natural gas and other compressible fluids, through pipeline networks characterized by limits on transmission capacity and storage. It was designed to enable efficient exploration of possible transmission system responses to large-scale disruptions lasting for days or longer. The model formulation reflects constraints on transmission and storage capacity imposed by the physical system assets. Those capacity limits are input parameters and are not derived from more basic system properties such as pipeline diameters and compressor power. A system’s response to a large disruption is controlled by operational decisions as well as damage to physical assets. The NFD model formulation allows users to efficiently consider alternative scenarios about the way remaining capacity might be used so that the analysis result appropriately reflects uncertainties about operator response.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Using Bayesian Methodology to Estimate Liquefied Natural Gas Leak Frequencies

This analysis provides estimates on the leak frequencies of nine components found in liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities. Data was taken from a variety of sources, with 25 different data sets included in the analysis. A hierarchical Bayesian model was used that assumes that the log leak frequency follows a normal distribution and the logarithm of the mean of this normal distribution is a linear function of the logarithm of the fractional leak area. This type of model uses uninformed prior distributions that are updated with applicable data. Separate models are fit for each component listed. Five order-of-magnitude fractional leak areas are considered, based on the flow area of the component. Three types of supporting analyses were performed: sensitivity of the model to the data set used, sensitivity of the leak frequency estimates to differences in the model structure or prior distributions, and sufficiency of sample sized used for convergence. Recommended leak frequency distributions for all component types and leak sizes are given. These leak frequency predictions can be used for quantitative risk assessments in the future.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Review of Pantex Radiation Safety Department 2020 Backup Dosimetry Processing Methodology

In the first quarter (Q1) of Calendar Year 2020, the Pantex Radiation Safety Department (Pantex) experienced various issues and failures with their dosimeter processing equipment. Efforts to repair the equipment resulted in limited functionality without the ability to process dosimeters assigned to personnel for monitoring dose. As a result of the impairments to the dosimeter processing equipment, Pantex called upon Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) for support, as their designated backup processor. In January of 2021, LLNL Subject Matter Experts in External Dosimetry started an NNSA-requested review of Pantex’s personnel doses in Q1 2020. Its focus was the technical validity of the means and methods used by Pantex and its conclusions and provide a level of confidence to National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) that the resulting personnel doses were reasonable, conservative, and defensible.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Storage Futures Study: Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This report is one in a series of NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report being released on its completion. The table below lists the specific research topics planned for examination under the SFS and the associated publication formats. This report, the fourth in the SFS series, provides a set of scenarios for cost-effectiveness and customer adoption for a range of scenarios that include future technology costs and valuation of backup power. The SFS series provides data and analysis in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Storage Grand Challenge, a comprehensive program to accelerate the development, commercialization, and utilization of next-generation energy storage technologies and sustain American global leadership in energy storage. The Energy Storage Grand Challenge employs a use case framework to ensure storage technologies can cost-effectively meet specific needs, and it incorporates a broad range of technologies in several categories: electrochemical, electromechanical, thermal, flexible generation, flexible buildings, and power electronics. More information, any supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the series, and other information about the broader study are available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/storage-futures.html.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗