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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,747 records · Page 97
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Regional Similarities and NO x -Related Increases in Biogenic Secondary Organic Aerosol in Summertime Southeastern United States

During the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) measurements of submicron mass were collected at Look Rock (LRK), Tennessee, and Centreville (CTR), Alabama. Carbon monoxide and submicron sulfate and organic mass concentrations were 15–60% higher at CTR than at LRK, but their time series had moderate correlations (r ~ 0.5). However, NO x had no correlation (r = 0.08) between the two sites with nighttime-to-early-morning peaks 3–10 times higher at CTR than at LRK. Organic mass (OM) sources identified by FTIR Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) had three very similar factors at both sites: fossil fuel combustion-related organic aerosols, mixed organic aerosols, and biogenic organic aerosols (BOA). The BOA spectrum from FTIR is similar (cosine similarity > 0.6) to that of lab-generated particle mass from the photochemical oxidation of both isoprene and monoterpenes under high NO x conditions from chamber experiments. The BOA mass fraction was highest during the night at CTR but in the afternoon at LRK.AMS PMF resulted in two similar pairs of factors at both sites and a third nighttime NO x -related factor (33% of OM) at CTR but a daytime nitrate-related factor (28% of OM) at LRK. NO x was correlated with BOA and LO-OOA for NO x concentrations higher than 1 ppb at both sites, producing 0.5 ± 0.1 μg/m 3 for CTR-LO-OOA and 1.0 ± 0.3 μg/m 3 for CTR-BOA additional biogenic OM for each 1 ppb increase of NO x .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion, Driven by Internal Variability, in the Presence of Increasing Atmospheric CO2

A number of physically-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain the surprising expansion of Antarctic sea ice area (SIA) over the satellite era (1979 to 2015). Here, we use a fully-coupled state-of-the-art global climate model to show that internal variability alone can produce such multidecadal periods of Antarctic SIA expansion even as atmospheric CO2 increases at observed rates and the planet warms. When our model is started from a relatively warm Southern Ocean state, Antarctic SIA sometimes (in one of three ensemble members) expands over multidecadal time scales at a rate comparable to that over the satellite era. SIA expansion occurs concurrently with rising atmospheric CO2 and warming global surface temperatures, and SIA trends by region and sector resemble those over the satellite era. Our results suggest that internal variability, particularly on long time scales over the Southern Ocean, may suffice to explain Antarctic SIA expansion over the satellite era.

Singh, Hansi AK↗
DOE OSTI2022

Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Abstract Southeast Asia is a region known for active land‐use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO 2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process‐based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book‐keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil‐palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Will Anthropogenic Warming Increase Evapotranspiration? Examining Irrigation Water Demand Implications of Climate Change in California

Abstract Climate modeling studies and observations do not fully agree on the implications of anthropogenic warming for evapotranspiration (ET), a major component of the water cycle and driver of irrigation water demand. Here, we use California as a testbed to assess the ET impacts of changing atmospheric conditions induced by climate change on irrigated systems. Our analysis of irrigated agricultural and urban regions shows that warmer atmospheric temperatures have minimal implications for ET rates and irrigation water demands—about one percent change per degree Celsius warming (∼1% °C −1 ). By explicitly modeling irrigation, we control for the confounding effect of climate‐driven soil moisture changes and directly estimate water demand implications. Our attribution analysis of the drivers of ET response to global anthropogenic warming shows that as the atmospheric temperature and vapor pressure deficit depart from the ideal conditions for transpiration, regulation of stomata resistance by stressed vegetation almost completely offsets the expected increase in ET rates that would otherwise result from abiotic processes alone. We further show that anthropogenic warming of the atmosphere has minimal implications for mean relative humidity (<1.7% °C −1 ) and the surface available energy (<0.2% °C −1 ), which are critical drivers of ET. This study corroborates the growing evidence that plant physiological changes moderate the degree to which changes in potential ET are realized as actual ET.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increases in Future AR Count and Size: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 CMIP5/6 Experiment

Abstract The Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi‐model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA‐2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system, as the long-term evolution of this coupled system is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding economic and population growth uncertainties on long-term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and CO 2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly impact metrics such as CO 2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low-carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land availability and food-energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drivers of Dry Day Sensitivity to Increased CO 2

Persistent precipitation deficits are among the most impactful consequences of global warming. Here we focus on changes in the annual number of dry days (NDD) and in the annual maximum length of dry spells due to a quadrupling of atmospheric CO 2 . We use atmosphere-only simulations to decompose the projected changes into additive contributions. A fast adjustment leads to a global increase in NDD despite notable regional exceptions (e.g., South Asia and Sahel). The effect of the uniform component of the surface ocean warming is model-dependent but shapes the regional distribution of the NDD response in each model. Finally, the ocean warming pattern also contributes to large uncertainties, likely through contrasting changes in large-scale circulation. Our results thus highlight the complexity of the NDD response, with policy-relevant practical implications for mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due To Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High‐Resolution Earth System Model

Abstract Heatwaves are strongly associated with temperature distributions, but the mechanisms by which distributions are influenced by climate change remains unclear. Comparing simulations from a high‐spatial resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM‐HR) with those from low‐resolution models, we identify substantial improvements by CESM‐HR in reproducing observed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature skewness, as well as the frequency, intensity, persistence, and total heatwave days. Temperature skewness is strongly linked to land‐atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation. Under global warming projections, some regions exhibit enhanced temperature skewness, along with more frequent and persistent heatwaves of greater intensity. We find that in energy‐limited regimes, such as India, negative skewness in latent heat flux facilitates large positive skewness in sensible heat flux, which modulates near‐surface air temperatures. Skewness differences of latent and sensible heat fluxes are amplified under global warming, increasing the temperature skewness. We find that this contrasting flux mechanism is active in several heatwave‐prone regions.

Gao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Internal Variability Increased Arctic Amplification During 1980–2022

Abstract Since 1980, the Arctic surface has warmed four times faster than the global mean. Enhanced Arctic warming relative to the global average warming is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While AA is a robust feature in climate change simulations, models rarely reproduce the observed magnitude of AA, leading to concerns that models may not accurately capture the response of the Arctic to greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use CMIP6 data to train a machine learning algorithm to quantify the influence of internal variability in surface air temperature trends over both the Arctic and global domains. Application of this machine learning algorithm to observations reveals that internal variability increases the Arctic warming but slows global warming in recent decades, inflating AA since 1980 by 38% relative to the externally forced AA. Accounting for the role of internal variability reconciles the discrepancy between simulated and observed AA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compost Amendment to a Grazed California Annual Grassland Increases Gross Primary Productivity Due To a Longer Growing Season

Abstract Compost amendment to rangelands is a proposed nature‐based climate solution to increase plant productivity and soil carbon sequestration. However, it has not been evaluated using quasicontinuous ecosystem‐scale measurements. Here, we present the first study to utilize eddy covariance and footprint partitioning to monitor carbon exchange in a grassland with and without compost amendment, monitoring for 1 year before and 1 year after treatment. Compost amendment to an annual California grassland was found to enhance net ecosystem removal of carbon. Our study confirmed that compost‐amended grasslands, similar to nonamended grasslands, are net carbon sources to the atmosphere; however, the amendment appears to be slowing down the rate at which these ecosystems lose carbon by 0.71 Mg C ha −1 per growing season. Digital repeated imagery of the canopy revealed that compost‐amended grasslands experienced an earlier green‐up, resulting in an overall longer growing season by >60 days. Notably, we did not detect significantly higher amounts of soil carbon in compost‐amended soils. High variability in soil carbon demands greater sampling replication in future studies. A longer growing season and higher productivity are hypothesized to be a result of greater availability of macronutrients and micronutrients in the top layer of soil (specifically nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc).

Fenster, Tommy L. D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming

Mosquitoes are a key virus vector that poses significant health threats globally, affecting 700 million individuals and causing 1 million deaths annually. Accurately predicting mosquito abundance and dispersion remains a challenge. Complex interactions between mosquito dynamics and various environmental factors, notably hydrology, contribute to this challenge. Existing models typically focus on precipitation and temperature and often overlook further impacts of hydrological variables within mosquito modeling. In this study, we developed an artificial intelligence‐based model for mosquito dynamics, explicitly accounting for different hydrological variables, such as precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow. Using Toronto, Canada, as a case study, we identified causal relationships between changes in mosquito populations, hydrological factors, vegetation (e.g., leaf area index), and climate variables (e.g., daylight length, precipitation, and temperature). We embedded these relationships into a Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network Model capable of accurately detecting mosquito dynamics across annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales. The LSTM is able to explain, on average, approximately 40% of the variance in the observed mosquito abundance data. Using the calibrated model, we predicted that the summer season mosquito abundance would increase by ∼16% and ∼19% under an intermediate greenhouse emission scenario, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5, and a high greenhouse emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, respectively. We expect that this model can serve as a valuable tool and inform science‐based decisions affecting mosquito dynamics and public health. It can also build a foundation for future risk analysis at the regional and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Recent Increase in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over Florida's Gulf Coast

Unlike Florida's Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast of Florida has seen heightened tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent decades with several destructive landfalls. Here, we attempt to understand this regional contrast using a suite of observations for the period 1979–2024. First, we demonstrate that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can explain ~23% of the interannual variability in landfalls over the Gulf Coast, the variance explained by them for the Atlantic Coast is statistically insignificant. Next, we show that this striking difference may be attributed to the regional patterns of wind shear, steering flow and air-sea thermodynamic state excited by those modes of variability. The differential control exerted by ENSO, AMO, and NAO on landfalling Florida TCs, in combination with decadal trends in those modes, is likely responsible for the observed increases in landfalls over Florida's Gulf Coast.

Florida↗
DOE OSTI2016

Interleukin-15 promotes intestinal dysbiosis with butyrate deficiency associated with increased susceptibility to colitis

Dysbiosis resulting in gut-microbiome alterations with reduced butyrate production are thought to disrupt intestinal immune homeostasis and promote complex immune disorders. However, whether and how dysbiosis develops before the onset of overt pathology remains poorly defined. Interleukin 15 (IL-15) is upregulated in distressed tissue and its overexpression is thought to predispose susceptible individuals to and play a role in the pathogenesis of celiac disease and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). While the immunological roles of IL-15 have been largely studied, its potential impact on the microbiota remains unexplored. Analysis of 16S rRNA-based inventories of bacterial communities in mice overexpressing IL-15 in the intestinal epithelium (v-IL-15tg mice) shows distinct changes in the composition of the intestinal bacteria. While some alterations are specific to individual intestinal compartments, others are found across the ileum, cecum, and feces. In particular, IL-15 overexpression restructures the composition of the microbiota with a decrease in butyrate producing bacteria that is associated with a reduction in luminal butyrate levels across all intestinal compartments. Fecal microbiota transplant experiments of wild-type and v-IL-15tg microbiota into germ-free mice further indicate that diminishing butyrate concentration observed in the intestinal lumen of v-IL-15tg mice is the result of intrinsic alterations in the microbiota induced by IL-15. This reconfiguration of the microbiota is associated with increased susceptibility to dextran sodium sulfate induced colitis. Altogether, this study reveals that IL-15 impacts butyrate-producing bacteria and lowers butyrate levels in the absence of overt pathology, which represent events that precede and promote intestinal inflammatory diseases.

autoimmunity↗
DOE OSTI2012

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO2 and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO2 in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO2 during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2014

Templated assembly of photoswitches significantly increases the energy-storage capacity of solar thermal fuels

Large-scale utilization of solar-energy resources will require considerable advances in energy-storage technologies to meet ever-increasing global energy demands. Other than liquid fuels, existing energy-storage materials do not provide the requisite combination of high energy density, high stability, easy handling, transportability and low cost. New hybrid solar thermal fuels, composed of photoswitchable molecules on rigid, low-mass nanostructures, transcend the physical limitations of molecular solar thermal fuels by introducing local sterically constrained environments in which interactions between chromophores can be tuned. We demonstrate this principle of a hybrid solar thermal fuel using azobenzene-functionalized carbon nanotubes. We show that, on composite bundling, the amount of energy stored per azobenzene more than doubles from 58 to 120 kJ mol(-1), and the material also maintains robust cyclability and stability. Our results demonstrate that solar thermal fuels composed of molecule-nanostructure hybrids can exhibit significantly enhanced energy-storage capabilities through the generation of template-enforced steric strain.

Kucharski, TJ↗
DOE OSTI2016

Bacteria increase arid-land soil surface temperature through the production of sunscreens

Soil surface temperature, an important driver of terrestrial biogeochemical processes, depends strongly on soil albedo, which can be significantly modified by factors such as plant cover. In sparsely vegetated lands, the soil surface can be colonized by photosynthetic microbes that build biocrust communities. Here we use concurrent physical, biochemical and microbiological analyses to show that mature biocrusts can increase surface soil temperature by as much as 10 °C through the accumulation of large quantities of a secondary metabolite, the microbial sunscreen scytonemin, produced by a group of late-successional cyanobacteria. Scytonemin accumulation decreases soil albedo significantly. Such localized warming has apparent and immediate consequences for the soil microbiome, inducing the replacement of thermosensitive bacterial species with more thermotolerant forms. In conclusion, these results reveal that not only vegetation but also microorganisms are a factor in modifying terrestrial albedo, potentially impacting biosphere feedbacks on past and future climate, and call for a direct assessment of such effects at larger scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A route for a strong increase of critical current in nanostrained iron-based superconductors

The critical temperature T c and the critical current density J c determine the limits to large-scale superconductor applications. Superconductivity emerges at T c . The practical current-carrying capability, measured by J c , is the ability of defects in superconductors to pin the magnetic vortices, and that may reduce T c . Simultaneous increase of T c and J c in superconductors is desirable but very difficult to realize. Here we demonstrate a route to raise both T c and J c together in iron-based superconductors. By using low-energy proton irradiation, we create cascade defects in FeSe 0.5 Te 0.5 films. Tc is enhanced due to the nanoscale compressive strain and proximity effect, whereas J c is doubled under zero field at 4.2 K through strong vortex pinning by the cascade defects and surrounding nanoscale strain. At 12 K and above 15 T, one order of magnitude of J c enhancement is achieved in both parallel and perpendicular magnetic fields to the film surface.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2017

Shifts in pore connectivity from precipitation versus groundwater rewetting increases soil carbon loss after drought

Droughts and other extreme precipitation events are predicted to increase in intensity, duration and extent, with uncertain implications for terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration. Soil wetting from above (precipitation) results in a characteristically different pattern of pore-filling than wetting from below (groundwater), with larger, well-connected pores filling before finer pore spaces, unlike groundwater rise in which capillary forces saturate the finest pores first. Here we demonstrate that pore-scale wetting patterns interact with antecedent soil moisture conditions to alter pore-, core- and field-scale C dynamics. Drought legacy and wetting direction are perhaps more important determinants of short-term C mineralization than current soil moisture content in these soils. Our results highlight that microbial access to C is not solely limited by physical protection, but also by drought or wetting-induced shifts in hydrologic connectivity. We argue that models should treat soil moisture within a three-dimensional framework emphasizing hydrologic conduits for C and resource diffusion.

Carbon↗