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NASA NTRS2015

The Zero Boil-Off Tank Experiment Contributions to the Development of Cryogenic Fluid Management

The Zero Boil-Off Technology (ZBOT) Experiment involves performing a small scale ISS experiment to study tank pressurization and pressure control in microgravity. The ZBOT experiment consists of a vacuum jacketed test tank filled with an inert fluorocarbon simulant liquid. Heaters and thermo-electric coolers are used in conjunction with an axial jet mixer flow loop to study a range of thermal conditions within the tank. The objective is to provide a high quality database of low gravity fluid motions and thermal transients which will be used to validate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) modeling. This CFD can then be used in turn to predict behavior in larger systems with cryogens. This paper will discuss the current status of the ZBOT experiment as it approaches its flight to installation on the International Space Station, how its findings can be scaled to larger and more ambitious cryogenic fluid management experiments, as well as ideas for follow-on investigations using ZBOT like hardware to study other aspects of cryogenic fluid management.

Fluid management↗
NASA NTRS2015

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Simulation↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA SSERVI Contributions to Lunar Science and Exploration

NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) represents a close collaboration between science, technology and exploration that will enable deeper understanding of the Moon and other airless bodies as we move further out of low-Earth orbit. The new Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) will focus on the scientific aspects of exploration as they pertain to the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs) and the moons of Mars. The Institute focuses on interdisciplinary, exploration-related science centered around all airless bodies targeted as potential human destinations. Areas of study reported here will represent the broad spectrum of lunar, NEA, and Martian moon sciences encompassing investigations of the surface, interior, exosphere, and near-space environments as well as science uniquely enabled from these bodies. We will provide a detailed look at research being conducted by each of the 9 domestic US teams as well as our 7 international partners. The research profile of the Institute integrates investigations of plasma physics, geology/geochemistry, technology integration, solar system origins/evolution, regolith geotechnical properties, analogues, volatiles, ISRU and exploration potential of the target bodies.

Exploration↗
NASA NTRS2016

Contribution of Schedule Delays to Cost Growth: How to Make Peace with a Marching Army

Numerous research papers have shown that cost and schedule growth are interrelated for NASA space science missions. Although there has shown to be a strong correlation of cost growth with schedule growth, it is unclear what percentage of cost growth is caused by schedule growth and how schedule growth can be controlled. This paper attempts to quantify this percentage by looking at historical data and show detailed examples of how schedule growth influences cost growth. The paper also addresses a methodology to show an alternate approach for assessing and setting a robust baseline schedule and use schedule performance metrics to help assess if the project is performing to plan. Finally, recommendations are presented to help control schedule growth in order to minimize cost growth for NASA space science missions.

schedule↗
NASA NTRS2016

Horizontal and Vertical Velocities Derived from the IDS Contribution to ITRF2014, and Comparisons with Geophysical Models

In the context of the 2014 realization of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2014), the International DORIS Service (IDS) has delivered to the IERS a set of 1140 weekly SINEX files including station coordinates and Earth orientation parameters, covering the time period from 1993.0 to 2015.0. From this set of weekly SINEX files, the IDS Combination Center estimated a cumulative DORIS position and velocity solution to obtain mean horizontal and vertical motion of 160 stations at 71 DORIS sites. The main objective of this study is to validate the velocities of the DORIS sites by comparison with external models or time series. Horizontal velocities are compared with two recent global plate models (GEODVEL 2010 and NNR-MORVEL56). Prior to the comparisons, DORIS horizontal velocities were corrected for Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) from the ICE-6G (VM5a) model. For more than half of the sites, the DORIS horizontal velocities differ from the global plate models by less than 2-3 mm/yr. For five of the sites (Arequipa, Dionysos/Gavdos, Manila, Santiago) with horizontal velocity differences wrt these models larger than 10 mm/yr, comparisons with GNSS estimates show the veracity of the DORIS motions. Vertical motions from the DORIS cumulative solution are compared with the vertical velocities derived from the latest GPS cumulative solution over the time span 1995.0-2014.0 from the University of La Rochelle (ULR6) solution at 31 co-located DORIS-GPS sites. These two sets of vertical velocities show a correlation coefficient of 0.83. Vertical differences are larger than 2 mm/yr at 23 percent of the sites. At Thule the disagreement is explained by fine-tuned DORIS discontinuities in line with the mass variations of outlet glaciers. Furthermore, the time evolution of the vertical time series from the DORIS station in Thule show similar trends to the GRACE equivalent water height.

DORIS↗
NASA NTRS2016

LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome.

The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems).The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (LFMIP, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).

atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS2016

Contributions of the ARM Program to Radiative Transfer Modeling for Climate and Weather Applications

Accurate climate and weather simulations must account for all relevant physical processes and their complex interactions. Each of these atmospheric, ocean, and land processes must be considered on an appropriate spatial and temporal scale, which leads these simulations to require a substantial computational burden. One especially critical physical process is the flow of solar and thermal radiant energy through the atmosphere, which controls planetary heating and cooling and drives the large-scale dynamics that moves energy from the tropics toward the poles. Radiation calculations are therefore essential for climate and weather simulations, but are themselves quite complex even without considering the effects of variable and inhomogeneous clouds. Clear-sky radiative transfer calculations have to account for thousands of absorption lines due to water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases, which are irregularly distributed across the spectrum and have shapes dependent on pressure and temperature. The line-by-line (LBL) codes that treat these details have a far greater computational cost than can be afforded by global models. Therefore, the crucial requirement for accurate radiation calculations in climate and weather prediction models must be satisfied by fast solar and thermal radiation parameterizations with a high level of accuracy that has been demonstrated through extensive comparisons with LBL codes. See attachment for continuation.

climatology↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decisionmakers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs (observational datasets) and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Vulnerability↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Contributions to Controlled Environment Agriculture

It may come as a surprise, but NASA has been a long-standing sponsor of controlled environment agriculture (CEA) research. This is based on the potential for using plants (crops) for life support systems in space. Through photosynthesis, crops could produce food and oxygen for humans, while removing CO2. In addition, plant transpiration could help purify waste water. NASAs interest in bioregenerative life support dates back to the late 1950s. At that time, much of the testing focused on algae, but over the years moved toward higher plants as CEA techniques improved. Throughout the 1980s and 90s, extensive testing was carried out at different universities to gather horticultural data for a range of crops, including wheat, soybean, lettuce, potato, sweet potato, cowpea, rice and more. These studies examined different electric light sources, mineral nutrition, recirculating hydroponics, effects of CO2, temperature, photosynthetic photon flux (PPF), and photoperiod on the crops, and identified cultivars that would be useful for space. Findings from these studies were then used to conduct large scale (20 sq m), closed atmosphere tests at Kennedy Space Center, and later at NASA Johnson Space Center, where plant growth chambers were linked to human habitats. Results showed that with high light input and careful horticultural management, about 20-25 sq m of crops under continuous cultivation could produce the O2 for one person, and about 40-50 sq m could produce enough dietary calories. The ability to sustain these production levels and accurately assess system costs and failures needs further study. In all likelihood, the use of plants for life support will evolve, where for early missions like the International Space Station, crops will be grown in small chambers to provide supplemental fresh foods. As mission durations and distances increase, the systems could expand to assume more of the life support burden. But the constraints of space travel require that these approaches be efficient in terms of mass, volume, and energy, which are similar to challenges facing terrestrial CEA, such as vertical agriculture systems.

Bioregenerative↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.

thermosteric sea-level change↗
NASA NTRS2017

Relative Contribution of Monsoon Precipitation and Pumping to Changes in Groundwater Storage in India

The depletion of groundwater resources threatens food and water security in India. However, the relative influence of groundwater pumping and climate variability on groundwater availability and storage remains unclear. Here we show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction. We find that groundwater storage has declined in northern India at the rate of 2 cm/yr and increased by 1 to 2 cm/yr in southern India between 2002 and 2013. We find that a large fraction of the total variability in groundwater storage in north-central and southern India can be explained by changes in precipitation. Groundwater storage variability in northwestern India can be explained predominantly by variability in abstraction for irrigation, which is in turn influenced by changes in precipitation. Declining precipitation in northern India is linked to Indian Ocean warming, suggesting a previously unrecognized teleconnection between ocean temperatures and groundwater storage.

Climate-change impacts↗
NASA NTRS2017

The DeepMIP Contribution to PMIP4: Experimental Design for Model Simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)

Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( greater than 800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (approximately 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4(times) CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Development of the GSFC DORIS Contribution to ITRF2014

The NASA GSFC DORIS analysis center has processed data from January 1993 to December 2014 and provided 1141 weekly solutionsin the form of normal equations for incorporation into the DORIS solution for ITRF2014. The solution time series, designated asgscwd26, were based on tracking data to eleven DORIS satellites divided generally into seven-day arcs. With respect to the ITRF2008 submission (Le Bail et al., 2010), the measurement model was updated to model the beacon frequency variations at certain DORIS sites,to apply the DORIS antenna phase law for the Starec and Alcatel antennae, and to apply the antenna offset corrections in the NASAGSFC orbit determination software rather than using the data-supplied corrections. We show that computing the antenna offset correctionsin the orbit determination software is superior to using the offset corrections that are supplied with the DORIS data, and that thisimproves the RMS of fit for SPOT-2, Envisat, SPOT-4, and SPOT-5. The updates for the force model included: (1) the development of improved nonconservative force modeling for SPOT-2, SPOT-3, SPOT-5, Envisat, and HY-2A, and (2) the application of an updatedstatic gravity model based on GRACE and GOCE data, and weekly models of the variations in the low degree gravity field deducedindependently from tracking by Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and DORIS. The post-ITRF2008 DORIS coordinate WRMS afterthe launch of Envisat and SPOT-5 is improved from 11.20 to 12.45 mm with ITRF2008 (Le Bail et al., 2010), to between 8.50 and9.99 mm with the gscwd26 SINEX solution. The application of the DORIS antenna phase laws shifts the DORIS scale wrt DPOD2008by +6.0 mm from 19930103 to 20020606, and by +11.4 mm from 20020613 to 20111030. The application of more detailed models of time-variable gravity reduces the slopes in the Helmert transformation parameters Tx, and Ty (w.r.t. DPOD2008) after 2005. The annual amplitude in these parameters is reduced from 3.2 mm (for Tx), 4.1 mm (for Ty), to 1.7 mm (for Tx) and 2.8 mm (for Ty).

Lemoine, F. G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Contributions of Solar Wind and Micrometeoroids to Molecular Hydrogen in the Lunar Exosphere

We investigate the density and spatial distribution of the H2 exosphere of the Moon assuming various source mechanisms. Owing to its low mass, escape is non-negligible for H2. For high-energy source mechanisms, a high percentage of the released molecules escape lunar gravity. Thus, the H2 spatial distribution for high-energy release processes reflects the spatial distribution of the source. For low energy release mechanisms, the escape rate decreases and the H2 redistributes itself predominantly to reflect a thermally accommodated exosphere. However, a small dependence on the spatial distribution of the source is superimposed on the thermally accommodated distribution in model simulations, where density is locally enhanced near regions of higher source rate. For an exosphere accommodated to the local surface temperature, a source rate of 2.2 g s-1 is required to produce a steady state density at high latitude of 1200 cm-3. Greater source rates are required to produce the same density for more energetic release mechanisms. Physical sputtering by solar wind and direct delivery of H2 through micrometeoroid bombardment can be ruled out as mechanisms for producing and liberating H2 into the lunar exosphere. Chemical sputtering by the solar wind is the most plausible as a source mechanism and would require 10-50 of the solar wind H+ inventory to be converted to H2 to account for the observations.

Impact↗
NASA NTRS2017

Contribution of Asteroid Generated Tsunami to the Impact Hazard

The long-standing uncertainty about the importance of asteroid-generated tsunami was addressed at a workshop in August 2016, co-sponsored by NASA and NOAA. Experts from NASA, NOAA, the DoE tri-labs (LLNL, SNL, and LANL), DHS, FEMA, and academia addressed the hazard of tsunami created by asteroid impacts, focusing primarily on NEAs with diameter less than 250m. Participants jointly identified key issues and shared information for nearly a year to coordinate their results for discussion at the workshop. They used modern computational tools to examine 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long-distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. The workshop resulted in broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2017

Satellite Contributions to ACPC

The attached presentation was given at the Aerosols, Clouds, Precipitation and Climate (ACPC) Workshop sponsored by WCRP GEWEX and LEAPS, held April 2-6, 2017 in Bad Honnef, Germany. Organizers of the meeting would like to post the presentations online at http:www.igacproject.org ACPC.

aerosols↗