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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Projected Future Changes in Tropical Cyclones Using the CMIP6 HighResMIP Multimodel Ensemble

Future changes in tropical cyclone properties are an important component of climate change impacts and risk for many tropical and midlatitude countries. In this study we assess the performance of a multimodel ensemble of climate models, at resolutions ranging from 250 to 25 km. We use a common experimental design including both atmosphere-only and coupled simulations run over the period 1950–2050, with two tracking algorithms applied uniformly across the models. There are overall improvements in tropical cyclone frequency, spatial distribution, and intensity in models at 25 km resolution, with several of them able to represent very intense storms. Projected tropical cyclone activity by 2050 generally declines in the South Indian Ocean, while changes in other ocean basins are more uncertain and sensitive to both tracking algorithm and imposed forcings. Coupled models with smaller biases suggest a slight increase in average TC 10 m wind speeds by 2050.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol Absorption in the Atmosphere: Perspectives from Global Model, Ground-Based Measurements, and Field Observations

Aerosol absorption in the atmosphere poses a major uncertainty in assessing the aerosol climate effects. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, and our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt. We compare the model calculated total aerosol optical thickness, extinction, and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET, satellite retrievals from the TOMS instrument, and field observations from ACE-Asia. We will examine the most sensitive factors in determining the aerosol absorption. and the consequences of assessing the aerosol radiative forcing and atmospheric heating associated with those factors.

Chin, Mian↗

Bering Strait Ocean Heat Transport Drives Decadal Arctic Variability in a High‐Resolution Climate Model

Abstract We investigate the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in driving the decadal variability of the Arctic climate by analyzing the pre‐industrial control simulation of a high‐resolution climate model. While the OHT variability at 65°N is greater in the Atlantic, we find that the decadal variability of Arctic‐wide surface temperature and sea ice area is much better correlated with Bering Strait OHT than Atlantic OHT. In particular, decadal Bering Strait OHT variability causes significant changes in local sea ice cover and air‐sea heat fluxes, which are amplified by shortwave feedbacks. These heat flux anomalies are regionally balanced by longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, without compensation by atmospheric heat transport (Bjerknes compensation). The sensitivity of the Arctic to changes in OHT may thus rely on an accurate representation of the heat transport through the Bering Strait, which is difficult to resolve in coarse‐resolution ocean models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Climate Monitoring with the EOS PM-Platform's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E)

The Advanced Microwave Scanning 2 Radiometer (AMSR-E) is being built by NASDA to fly on NASA's PM Platform (now called Aqua) in December 2000. This is in addition to a copy of AMSR that will be launched on Japan's ADEOS-II satellite in 2001. The AMSRs improve upon the window frequency radiometer heritage of the SSM/I and SMMR instruments. Major improvements over those instruments include channels spanning the 6.9 GHz to 89 GHz frequency range, and higher spatial resolution from a 1.6 m reflector (AMSR-E) and 2.0 m reflector (ADEOS-II AMSR). The ADEOS-II AMSR also will have 50.3 and 52.8 GHz channels, providing sensitivity to lower tropospheric temperature. NASA funds an AMSR-E Science Team to provide algorithms for the routine production of a number of standard geophysical products. These products will be generated by the AMSR-E Science Investigator-led Processing System (SIPS) at the Global Hydrology Resource Center (GHRC) in Huntsville, Alabama. While there is a separate NASDA-sponsored activity to develop algorithms and produce products from AMSR, as well as a Joint (NASDA-NASA) AMSR Science Team 3 activity, here I will review only the AMSR-E Team's algorithms and how they benefit from the new capabilities that AMSR-E will provide. The US Team's products will be archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Spencer, Roy W.↗

Aerosol Absorption in the Atmosphere: Perspectives from Global Model, Ground-Based Measurements, and Field Observations

Aerosol absorption in the atmosphere poses a major uncertainty in assessing the aerosol climate effects. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, and our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt. We compare the model calculated total aerosol optical thickness, extinction, and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia. We will examine what are the most sensitive factors in determining the aerosol absorption, and the consequences of assessing the aerosol radiative forcing and atmospheric heating associated with those factors.

Chin, Mian↗

Aerosol Absorption in the Atmosphere: Perspectives from Global Model, Ground-Based Measurements, and Field Observations

Aerosol absorption in the atmosphere poses a major uncertainty in assessing the aerosol climate effects. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, and our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt. We compare the model calculated total aerosol optical thickness, extinction, and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia. We will examine what are the most sensitive factors in determining the aerosol absorption, and the consequences of assessing the aerosol radiative forcing and atmospheric heating associated with those factors.

Chin, Mian↗

Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

snow↗

A Global Spatially Contiguous Solar-Induced Fluorescence (CSIF) Dataset Using Neural Networks

Satellite-retrieved solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has shown great potential to monitor the photosynthetic activity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, several issues, including low spatial and temporal resolution of the gridded datasets and high uncertainty of the individual retrievals, limit the applications of SIF. In addition, inconsistency in measurement footprints also hinders the direct comparison between gross primary production (GPP) from eddy covariance (EC) flux towers and satellite-retrieved SIF. In this study, by training a neural network (NN) with surface reflectance from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and SIF from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), we generated two global spatially contiguous SIF (CSIF) datasets at moderate spatiotemporal (0.05° 4-day) resolutions during the MODIS era, one for clear-sky conditions (2000–2017) and the other one in all-sky conditions (2000–2016). The clear-sky instantaneous CSIF (CSIF(sub clear-inst)) shows high accuracy against the clear-sky OCO-2 SIF and little bias across biome types. The all-sky daily average CSIF (CSIF(sub all-daily)) dataset exhibits strong spatial, seasonal and interannual dynamics that are consistent with daily SIF from OCO-2 and the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2). An increasing trend (0.39 %) of annual average CSIFall-daily is also found, confirming the greening of Earth in most regions. Since the difference between satellite-observed SIF and CSIF is mostly caused by the environmental down-regulation on SIF(sub yield), the ratio between OCO-2 SIF and CSIF(sub clear-inst) can be an effective indicator of drought stress that is more sensitive than the normalized difference vegetation index and enhanced vegetation index. By comparing CSIF(sub all-daily) with GPP estimates from 40 EC flux towers across the globe, we find a large cross-site variation (c.v. = 0.36) of the GPP–SIF relationship with the highest regression slopes for evergreen needleleaf forest. However, the cross-biome variation is relatively limited (c.v. = 0.15). These two contiguous SIF datasets and the derived GPP–SIF relationship enable a better understanding of the spatial and temporal variations of the GPP across biomes and climate.

Zhang, Yao↗

Liquid–Liquid Phase Separation in Supermicrometer and Submicrometer Aerosol Particles

The interactions of aerosol particles with light and clouds are among the most uncertain aspects of anthropogenic climate forcings. The effects of aerosol particles on climate depend on their optical properties, heterogeneous chemistry, water uptake behavior, and ice nucleation activity. These properties in turn depend on aerosol physics and chemistry including composition, size, shape, internal structure (morphology), and phase state. The greatest numbers of particles are found at small, submicrometer sizes, and the properties of aerosol particles can differ on the nanoscale compared with measurements of bulk materials. As a result, our focus has been on characterizing the phase transitions of aerosol particles in both supermicrometer and submicrometer particles. The phase transition of particular interest for us has been liquid–liquid phase separation (LLPS), which occurs when components of a solution phase separate due to a difference in solubilities. For example, organic compounds can have limited solubility in salt solutions especially as the water content decreases, increasing the concentration of the salt solution, and causing phase separation between organic-rich and inorganic-rich phases. To characterize the systems of interest, we primarily use optical microscopy for supermicrometer particles and cryogenic-transmission microscopy for submicrometer particles. This Account details our main results to date for the phase transitions of supermicrometer particles and the morphology of submicrometer aerosol. Herein, we have found that the relative humidity (RH) at which LLPS occurs (separation RH; SRH) is highly sensitive to the composition of the particles. For supermicrometer particles, SRH decreases as the pH is lowered to atmospherically relevant values. SRH also decreases when non-phase-separating organic compounds are added to the particles. For submicrometer particles, a size dependence of morphology is observed in systems that undergo LLPS in supermicrometer particles. In the limit of slow drying rates, particles <30 nm are homogeneous and larger particles are phase-separated. This size dependence of aerosol morphology arises because small particles cannot overcome the activation barrier needed to form a new phase when phase separation occurs by a nucleation and growth mechanism. Additionally, the inhibition of LLPS in small particles is observed for mixtures of ammonium sulfate with single organic compounds as well as complex organics like α-pinene secondary organic matter. The morphology of particles affects activation diameters for the formation of cloud condensation nuclei. These results more generally have implications for aerosol properties that affect the climate system. In addition, LLPS is also widely studied in materials and biological chemistry, and our results could potentially translate to implications for these fields.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

numerical weather forecasting↗

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nonscanning climate sensor study

The Nonscanning Climate Sensor represents a new instrument for climate research and global monitoring of the earth radiation budget. It contains a mosaic of array of detectors which measures the outgoing radiation of the earth in all directions without the need for mechanical scanning. The goal is to eliminate all moving parts and obtain highly calibrated measurements for up to one solar cycle (11 years) without being susceptible to mechanical failure. Over set intervals of time, the angular measurements are integrated up to produce total reflected and emitted flux values from each target area on the Earth. To achieve the require sensitivity while maintaining a flat spectral response, an improved dual cavity detector with digital control loop was developed. The detector is self calibrating to maintain high precision over the life of the instrument. Prototype detectors and a complete set of electronics with a microprocessor controller were fabricated and tested. Measurements show that the new detectors are more than an order of magnitude more sensitive than previous versions.

Hoffman, James W.↗

Development of Double and Triple-Pulsed 2-micron IPDA Lidars for Column CO2 Measurements

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important greenhouse gas that significantly contributes to the carbon cycle and globalradiation budget on Earth. CO2 role on Earth’s climate is complicated due to different interactions with various climatecomponents that include the atmosphere, the biosphere and the hydrosphere. Although extensive worldwide efforts formonitoring atmospheric CO2 through various techniques, including in-situ and passive sensors, are taking place highuncertainties exist in quantifying CO2 sources and sinks. These uncertainties are mainly due to insufficient spatial andtemporal mapping of the gas. Therefore it is required to have more rapid and accurate CO2 monitoring with higheruniform coverage and higher resolution. CO2 DIAL operating in the 2-μm band offer better near-surface CO2measurement sensitivity due to the intrinsically stronger absorption lines. For more than 15 years, NASA LangleyResearch Center (LaRC) contributed in developing several 2-m CO2 DIAL systems and technologies. This paperfocuses on the current development of the airborne double-pulsed and triple-pulsed 2-m CO2 integrated pathdifferential absorption (IPDA) lidar system at NASA LaRC. This includes the IPDA system development andintegration. Results from ground and airborne CO2 IPDA testing will be presented. The potential of scaling suchtechnology to a space mission will be addressed.

Singh, Upendra N.↗

The Planetary Protection Strategy of Mars Sample Return’s Earth Return Orbiter Mission

The Mars Sample Return campaign aims to use three flight missions and one ground element to safely bring rock cores, regolith and atmospheric samples from the surface of Mars to Earth to answer key questions about the geologic and climate history of Mars, including the potential for ancient life. Since its landing in Jezero Crater in 2021, the first mission, NASA’s Mars 2020, has collected a number of samples on the crater floor and on the delta using the Perseverance rover. Subsequent missions would recover the sealed sample tubes, launch them into Mars orbit, and transport them back to Earth. The ground element would be a high-containment facility that would isolate and protect the samples during initial sample characterization, which would include sample safety assessments and time-sensitive scientific investigations. These elements are currently in the planning and design stages of development, and represent an international effort of NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and many industry partners. The work presented here provides an overview of the planetary protection strategy of the third flight mission, the ESA-led Earth Return Orbiter (ERO), which hosts the NASA-provided Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). ERO-CCRS would capture the container with up to 30 sealed tubes previously put in Martian orbit, contain them in redundant containers to ensure that no potentially hazardous Mars particles are released, and return them to Earth through an entry vehicle. Both NASA and ESA policies comply with the United Nations’ Outer Space Treaty by planning to protect Earth’s biosphere from any potential adverse effects from material returned from solar system bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system. In the conduct of Mars Sample Return, the two agencies have agreed to apply approaches consistent with their own planetary protection standards to the campaign elements each provides.

Mars Sample Return↗

The Planetary Protection Strategy of Mars Sample Return Earth Return Orbiter Mission

The Mars Sample Return campaign aims to use three flight missions and one ground element to safely bring rock cores, regolith and atmospheric samples from the surface of Mars to Earth to answer key questions about the geologic and climate history of Mars, including the potential for ancient life. Since its landing in Jezero Crater in 2021, the first mission, NASA’s Mars 2020, has collected a number of samples on the crater floor and on the delta using the Perseverance rover. Subsequent missions would recover the sealed sample tubes, launch them into Mars orbit, and transport them back to Earth. The ground element would be a high-containment facility that would isolate and protect the samples during initial sample characterization, which would include sample safety assessments and time-sensitive scientific investigations. These elements are currently in the planning and design stages of development, and represent an international effort of NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and many industry partners. The work presented here provides an overview of the Planetary Protection strategy of the third flight mission, the ESA-led Earth Return Orbiter (ERO), which hosts the NASA-provided Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). ERO-CCRS would detect and capture the container with up to 30 sealed tubes previously put in Martian orbit, contain them in redundant containers to ensure that no potentially hazardous Mars particles are released, and return them to Earth through an entry vehicle. Both NASA and ESA policies comply with the United Nations’ Outer Space Treaty by planning to protect Earth’s biosphere from any potential adverse effects from material returned from solar system bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system. In the conduct of Mars Sample Return, the two agencies have mutually agreed to apply approaches consistent with their own planetary protection standards to the campaign elements they each provides.

mars sample return↗

The Planetary Protection Strategy of Mars Sample Return’s Earth Return Orbiter Mission

The Mars Sample Return campaign aims to use three flight missions and one ground element to safely bring rock cores, regolith and atmospheric samples from the surface of Mars to Earth to answer key questions about the geologic and climate history of Mars, including the potential for ancient life. Since its landing in Jezero Crater in 2021, the first mission, NASA’s Mars 2020, has collected a number of samples on the crater floor and on the delta using the Perseverance rover. Subsequent missions would recover the sealed sample tubes, launch them into Mars orbit, and transport them back to Earth. The ground element would be a high-containment facility that would isolate and protect the samples during initial sample characterization, which would include sample safety assessments and time-sensitive scientific investigations. These elements are currently in the planning and design stages of development, and represent an international effort of NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and many industry partners. The work presented here provides an overview of the planetary protection strategy of the third flight mission, the ESA-led Earth Return Orbiter, which hosts the NASA-provided Capture, Containment, and Return System. The orbiter would detect and capture the container with up to 30 sealed tubes previously put in Martian orbit, contain them in redundant containers to ensure that no potentially hazardous Mars particles are released, and return them to Earth through an entry vehicle. Both NASA and ESA policies comply with the United Nations’ Outer Space Treaty by planning to protect Earth’s biosphere from any potential adverse effects from material returned from solar system bodies beyond the Earth-Moon system. In the conduct of Mars Sample Return, the two agencies have mutually agreed to apply approaches consistent with their own planetary protection standards to the campaign elements they each provide.

Mars Sample Return↗

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Different model assumptions about plant hydraulics and photosynthetic temperature acclimation yield diverging implications for tropical forest gross primary production under warming

Tropical forest photosynthesis can decline at high temperatures due to (1) biochemical responses to increasing temperature and (2) stomatal responses to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is associated with increasing temperature. It is challenging to disentangle the influence of these two mechanisms on photosynthesis in observations, because temperature and VPD are tightly correlated in tropical forests. Nonetheless, quantifying the relative strength of these two mechanisms is essential for understanding how tropical gross primary production (GPP) will respond to climate change, because increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration may partially offset VPD-driven stomatal responses, but is not expected to mitigate the effects of temperature-driven biochemical responses. We used two terrestrial biosphere models to quantify how physiological process assumptions (photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulic stress) and functional traits (e.g., maximum xylem conductivity) influence the relative strength of modeled temperature versus VPD effects on light-saturated GPP at an Amazonian forest site, a seasonally dry tropical forest site, and an experimental tropical forest mesocosm. By simulating idealized climate change scenarios, we quantified the divergence in GPP predictions under model configurations with stronger VPD effects compared with stronger direct temperature effects. Assumptions consistent with stronger direct temperature effects resulted in larger GPP declines under warming, while assumptions consistent with stronger VPD effects resulted in more resilient GPP under warming. Furthermore, our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the role of direct temperature and indirect VPD effects for projecting the resilience of tropical forests in the future, and demonstrate that the relative strength of temperature versus VPD effects in models is highly sensitive to plant functional parameters and structural assumptions about photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗