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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 3: An efficient thermal infrared radiation parameterization for use in general circulation models

A detailed description of a parameterization for thermal infrared radiative transfer designed specifically for use in global climate models is presented. The parameterization includes the effects of the main absorbers of terrestrial radiation: water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone. While being computationally efficient, the schemes compute very accurately the clear-sky fluxes and cooling rates from the Earth's surface to 0.01 mb. This combination of accuracy and speed makes the parameterization suitable for both tropospheric and middle atmospheric modeling applications. Since no transmittances are precomputed the atmospheric layers and the vertical distribution of the absorbers may be freely specified. The scheme can also account for any vertical distribution of fractional cloudiness with arbitrary optical thickness. These features make the parameterization very flexible and extremely well suited for use in climate modeling studies. In addition, the numerics and the FORTRAN implementation have been carefully designed to conserve both memory and computer time. This code should be particularly attractive to those contemplating long-term climate simulations, wishing to model the middle atmosphere, or planning to use a large number of levels in the vertical.

Suarex, Max J.↗

Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration alleviate forest mortality risk

Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO 2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality risk is evaluated in response to both individual and combined changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal distribution, mean air temperature, specific humidity, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Model results show that the risk is predicted to significantly increase due to changes in precipitation and air temperature regime for the period 2050–2069. However, this increase may largely get alleviated by concurrent increases in atmospheric specific humidity and CO 2 concentration. The increase in mortality risk is expected to be higher for needleleaf forests than for broadleaf forests, as a result of disparity in hydraulic traits. These findings will further facilitate decisions about intervention and management of different forest types under changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric effects on the Space Shuttle approach and landing

The present work describes piloted simulations of Space Shuttle approach and landing where the pilot either flies the aircraft or monitors a computer-controlled flight with the option to take control. The simulated runs encompassed approach to the airport, acquisition of the glide slope and localizer, and accomplishing final flare and touchdown. The degree of difficulty associated with the flight task was imposed through modeled atmospheric winds and superimposed atmospheric turbulence. The simulator models the Orbiter vehicle with the aid of an all-digital computer complex and a fixed-base crew station. Comparison between piloted and computer-controlled responses to unexpected atmospheric conditions was obtained by recording data from instrument displays available to the pilot.

Ragsdale, W. A.↗

A11I-2104 Evaluation of the NASA GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Configuration for its Suitability to Simulations of Atmospheric Composition in a Changing Climate

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) is a full tropospheric-stratospheric chemistry enabled configuration of the NASA GEOS Earth system model. Among the objectives for research performed with GEOSCCM is to understand the impacts of climate change on recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer over the twenty-first century. Simulations performed in the past with GEOSCCM did not have an interactive ocean and were driven with projected sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary conditions provided by external models. This method limits the application of GEOSCCM for climate study because it doesn’t allow the feedback of composition changes to ocean. For a full representation of the chemistry-climate feedbacks in the Earth System, we have developed a configuration of GEOSCCM that makes use of the MOM5 ocean general circulation model coupled to the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model. This configuration leverages development of the GEOS Sub-seasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction system, and includes interactive, radiatively coupled aerosols and two-moment, aerosol-aware cloud microphysics. W e have assessed the baseline model climate sensitivity with an Monday, 11 December 2023 08:30 - 12:50 Poster Hall A-C - South (Exhibition Level, South, MC) experiment performed under pre-industrial (e.g., year 1850) greenhouse gas conditions and a second experiment under 4xCO2 conditions, similar to the typical CMIP protocol. The GEOS model is demonstrated to have a climate sensitivity of a 2.6 K increase in global mean surface temperature for an equivalent doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial conditions, in line with current CMIP models. This configuration of the GEOS model is suitable for application to multidecadal to century-long simulations of climate system response to changing greenhouse gas levels. We report here our evaluation of the climate diagnostics of this configuration and discuss future directions for work with this model configuration, including an ongoing twenty-first century projection experiment based on the Chemistry-Climate Model Intercomparison project protocol.

models↗

Midlatitude atmospheric responses to Arctic sensible heat flux anomalies in Community Climate Model, Version 4: Atmospheric Response to Arctic SHFs

Possible linkages between Arctic sea ice loss and midlatitude weather are strongly debated in the literature. We analyze a coupled model simulation to assess the possibility of Arctic ice variability forcing a midlatitude response, ensuring consistency between atmosphere, ocean, and ice components. We work with weekly running mean daily sensible heat fluxes with the self-organizing map technique to identify Arctic sensible heat flux anomaly patterns and the associated atmospheric response, without the need of metrics to define the Arctic forcing or measure the midlatitude response. We find that low-level warm anomalies during autumn can build planetary wave patterns that propagate downstream into the midlatitudes, creating robust surface cold anomalies in the eastern United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictability Associated with Land Surface Moisture States: Studies with the NSIPP System

Hydrologists have long speculated that soil moisture information can be used to increase skill in monthly to seasonal forecast systems. For this to be true, though, three conditions must be satisfied: (1) an imposed initial soil moisture anomaly in the forecast system must have some memory, so that it persists into the forecast period; (2) the modeled atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the persisted anomaly; and (3) the forecast model must correctly represent both the soil moisture memory and the atmospheric response as they occur in nature. In this short paper, we review some recent work at NSIPP (NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project) that addresses all three conditions.

Koster, R. D.↗

Pluto's atmosphere

Airborne CCD photometer observations of Pluto's June 9, 1988 stellar occultation have yielded an occultation lightcurve, probing two regions on the sunrise limb 2000 km apart, which reveals an upper atmosphere overlying an extinction layer with an abrupt upper boundary. The extinction layer may surround the entire planet. Attention is given to a model atmosphere whose occultation lightcurve closely duplicates observations; fits of the model to the immersion and emersion lightcurves exhibit no significant derived atmosphere-structure differences. Assuming a pure methane atmosphere, surface pressures of the order of 3 microbars are consistent with the occultation data.

Elliot, J. L.↗

Assessment of Accident Dose Models Used at the Savannah River Site

AXAIRQ, PUFF-PLUME, and MACCS2 are available for atmosphere modeling of accidental releases at the Savannah River Site (SRS) by qualified users. All models assume Gaussian diffusion and use site-specific or user-specified meteorological data to estimate downwind doses. However, each model was developed, maintained and applied for different purposes for use at SRS. This report briefly describes the lineage of, highlights the differing assumptions for, and compares some results from each model. The report is not intended to be an exhaustive evaluation and/or comparison of the models but to document the capabilities and assumptions of the models to gain perspective on how the models differ.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The SO2 atmosphere and ionosphere of Io - Ion chemistry, atmospheric escape, and models corresponding to the Pioneer 10 radio occultation measurements

Some numerical models of the SO2 atmosphere and ionosphere of Io at the time of the Pioneer 10 fly-by are calculated. It is shown that the formation of the observed ionosphere in the downstream direction may have required the precipitation of electrons, and that solar EUV radiation alone cannot account for it. In a comparison with Pioneer 10 radio occultation measurements, an electron impact in the range 500-800 eV was found to agree with Pioneer 10 radio occultation data for a SO2 atmosphere with a surface density of 4 x 10 to the 10th per cu cm. The relatively narrow energy range and flux required for incident electrons suggests that a fraction of a torus plasma compresses the ionosphere. It is pointed out on the basis of the model calculations that a weak magnetic field may be associated with Io.

Kumar, S.↗

Climate Impacts of CALIPSO-Guided Corrections to Black Carbon Aerosol Vertical Distributions in a Global Climate Model

Here, we alleviate the bias in the tropospheric vertical distribution of black carbon aerosols (BC) in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4) using the Cloud-Aerosol and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)-derived vertical profiles. A suite of sensitivity experiments are conducted with 1x, 5x, and 10x the present-day model estimated BC concentration climatology, with (corrected, CC) and without (uncorrected, UC) CALIPSO-corrected BC vertical distribution. The globally averaged top of the atmosphere radiative flux perturbation of CC experiments is ~8–50% smaller compared to uncorrected (UC) BC experiments largely due to an increase in low-level clouds. The global average surface temperature increases, the global average precipitation decreases, and the ITCZ moves northward with the increase in BC radiative forcing, irrespective of the vertical distribution of BC. Further, tropical expansion metrics for the poleward extent of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley cell (HC) indicate that simulated HC expansion is not sensitive to existing model biases in BC vertical distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of the Tangent Linear Properties of Tracer Transport Schemes Applied to Geophysical Problems.

A number of geophysical applications require the use of the linearized version of the full model. One such example is in numerical weather prediction, where the tangent linear and adjoint versions of the atmospheric model are required for the 4DVAR inverse problem. The part of the model that represents the resolved scale processes of the atmosphere is known as the dynamical core. Advection, or transport, is performed by the dynamical core. It is a central process in many geophysical applications and is a process that often has a quasi-linear underlying behavior. However, over the decades since the advent of numerical modelling, significant effort has gone into developing many flavors of high-order, shape preserving, nonoscillatory, positive definite advection schemes. These schemes are excellent in terms of transporting the quantities of interest in the dynamical core, but they introduce nonlinearity through the use of nonlinear limiters. The linearity of the transport schemes used in Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5), as well as a number of other schemes, is analyzed using a simple 1D setup. The linearized version of GEOS-5 is then tested using a linear third order scheme in the tangent linear version.

4DVAR↗

Multi-band, multi-epoch observations of the transiting warm Jupiter WASP-80b

WASP-80b is a warm Jupiter transiting a bright late-K/early-M dwarf, providing a good opportunity to extend the atmospheric study of hot Jupiters toward the lower temperature regime. We report multi-band, multi-epoch transit observations of WASP-80b by using three ground-based telescopes covering from optical (g', R{sub c}, and I{sub c} bands) to near-infrared (NIR; J, H, and K{sub s} bands) wavelengths. We observe 5 primary transits, each in 3 or 4 different bands simultaneously, obtaining 17 independent transit light curves. Combining them with results from previous works, we find that the observed transmission spectrum is largely consistent with both a solar abundance and thick cloud atmospheric models at a 1.7σ discrepancy level. On the other hand, we find a marginal spectral rise in the optical region compared to the NIR region at the 2.9σ level, which possibly indicates the existence of haze in the atmosphere. We simulate theoretical transmission spectra for a solar abundance but hazy atmosphere, finding that a model with equilibrium temperature of 600 K can explain the observed data well, having a discrepancy level of 1.0σ. We also search for transit timing variations, but find no timing excess larger than 50 s from a linear ephemeris. In addition, we conduct 43 day long photometric monitoring of the host star in the optical bands, finding no significant variation in the stellar brightness. Combined with the fact that no spot-crossing event is observed in the five transits, our results confirm previous findings that the host star appears quiet for spot activities, despite the indications of strong chromospheric activities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗

The photochemistry of ammonia in the Jovian atmosphere

A reinvestigation of the ammonia photochemistry in the Jovian lower atmosphere above the cloud tops is conducted in connection with certain questions concerning the model proposed by Strobel (1973). Chemical reactions and their rate coefficients are considered along with the model atmosphere, solar fluxes, the continuity equations, and numerical details. Differences between the newmodel and Strobel's model are related to more moderate ammonia depletion relations. The height profiles of H, NH2, N2H3, N2H4, and NH3 concentrations are presented in a graph.

Prasad, S. S.↗

Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) – Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility – Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Coordination Workshop, October 21–22, 2015

The Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research focuses on advancing a robust predictive understanding of Earth’s climate and environmental systems to inform the development of sustainable solutions to the Nation’s energy and environmental challenges. CESD climate activities related to atmospheric processes include: observations through the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility; atmospheric research and model parameterization development through the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program; climate model development and climate research through the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) project along with other computationally focused model-development activities within the CESD Earth System Modeling (ESM) program, and development of robust model analytical and testing frameworks at multiple scales through the Regional and Global Climate Modeling program. This workshop focused primarily on improving model treatment of atmospheric processes as a means to focus discussion and did not address research on terrestrial ecosystem and subsurface processes, which are also part of the CESD research portfolio.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of PBL Parameterization Schemes in WRF Model Predictions during the Dry Season of the Central Amazon Basin

Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterization schemes are employed to handle subgrid-scale processes on atmospheric models, playing a key role in accurately representing the atmosphere. Recent studies have shown that PBL schemes are particularly fundamental to the depiction of PBL height (PBLH), especially over the Amazon. In the present study, we investigated the performance of PBL schemes on the representation of meteorological variables, turbulent fluxes, PBL vertical structures, and PBLH over the central Amazon basin under dry conditions, taking advantage of observations from the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon campaign (GoAmazon2014/5) for validation and evaluation. Numerical experiments were carried out within the WRF model using eight PBL schemes for two dry periods from 2014 (typical year) and 2015 (El-Niño year), and results from the 1-km resolution domain were directly compared to hourly in situ observations. In general, all PBL schemes present good performance to reproduce meteorological variables, with nonlocal (local) PBL schemes producing better performance in the 2014 (2015) study period. All PBL schemes in general overestimate (>100%) daytime turbulent fluxes. Thermodynamic (daytime) vertical structures are better predicted than mechanical (nocturnal) ones. The local MYNN2.5 scheme showed the overall best performance for PBLH prediction, mainly at night.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Low‐Cloud Fraction Prediction Through Machine Learning

Abstract In this study, we evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) models (XGBoost) in predicting low‐cloud fraction (LCF), compared to two generations of the community atmospheric model (CAM5 and CAM6) and ERA5 reanalysis data, each having a different cloud scheme. ML models show a substantial enhancement in predicting LCF regarding root mean squared errors and correlation coefficients. The good performance is consistent across the full spectrums of atmospheric stability and large‐scale vertical velocity. Employing an explainable ML approach, we revealed the importance of including the amount of available moisture in ML models for representing spatiotemporal variations in LCF in the midlatitudes. Also, ML models demonstrated marked improvement in capturing the LCF variations during the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition (SCT). This study suggests ML models' great potential to address the longstanding issues of “too few” low clouds and “too rapid” SCT in global climate models.

Geology↗

First measurement of helium on Mars: Implications for the problem of radiogenic gases on the terrestrial planets

The 108 photons of the Martian He 584 A airglow detected by the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer satellite during a two-day exposure (22-23 Jan. 1993) correspond to the effective disk average intensity of 43 (+/-) 10 Rayleigh. Radiative transfer calculations, using a model atmosphere appropriate to the conditions of the observation and having an exospheric temperature of 210 (+/-) 20 K, result in an He mixing ratio of 1.1 (+/-) 0.4 ppm in the lower atmosphere. Nonthermal escape of helium is due to the following: electron impact ionization and pickup of He(+) by the solar wind; collisions with hot oxygen atoms; and charge exchange with molecular species with corresponding column loss rates of 1.4 x 10(exp 5), 3 x 10(exp 4), and 7 x 10(exp 3) cm(exp -2)s(exp -1), respectively. The lifetime of helium on Mars is 5 x 10(exp 4) yr. The He outgassing rate, coupled with the Ar-40 atmospheric abundance and with the K:U:Th ratio measured in the surface rocks, is used as input to a simple two-reservoir degassing model which presumes the loss of all argon accumulated in the atmosphere during the first Byr by large-scale impacts. The model results in total planet mass ratios of 10(exp -5) g/g for K, 2.3 x 10(exp -9) g/g for U, 8.5 x 10(exp -9) g/g for Th, 4 x 10(exp -10) g/g for He, and 1.5 x 10(exp -9) g/g for Ar-40. The predicted radiogenic heat flux is 2 erg cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). Similar modeling for Venus results in total plant mass ratios of 4.7 x 10(exp -5) g/g for K, 6.7 x 10(exp -9) g/g for U, 2.2 x 10(exp -8) g/g for Th, 1.3 x 10(exp -9) for He, 6.7 x 10(exp -9) g/g for Ar-40, and a radiogenic heat flux of 15 erg cm(exp -2)s(exp -1). The implications of these results are discussed. The modeling shows that the radioactive elements were not distributed uniformly in the protoplanetary nebula, and their relative abundances differ very much in the terrestrial planets.

Bowyer, S.↗