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NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of Multiple Precipitation Products and Preliminary Assessment of Their Impact on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) Land Surface States

Land surface models (LSMs) are computer programs, similar to weather and climate prediction models, which simulate the stocks and fluxes of water (including soil moisture, snow, evaporation, and runoff) and energy (including the temperature of and sensible heat released from the soil) after they arrive on the land surface as precipitation and sunlight. It is not currently possible to measure all of the variables of interest everywhere on Earth with sufficient accuracy and space-time resolution. Hence LSMs have been developed to integrate the available observations with our understanding of the physical processes involved, using powerful computers, in order to map these stocks and fluxes as they change in time. The maps are used to improve weather forecasts, support water resources and agricultural applications, and study the Earth's water cycle and climate variability. NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) project facilitates testing of several different LSMs with a variety of input datasets (e.g., precipitation, plant type). Precipitation is arguably the most important input to LSMs. Many precipitation datasets have been produced using satellite and rain gauge observations and weather forecast models. In this study, seven different global precipitation datasets were evaluated over the United States, where dense rain gauge networks contribute to reliable precipitation maps. We then used the seven datasets as inputs to GLDAS simulations, so that we could diagnose their impacts on output stocks and fluxes of water. In terms of totals, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) had the closest agreement with the US rain gauge dataset for all seasons except winter. The CMAP precipitation was also the most closely correlated in time with the rain gauge data during spring, fall, and winter, while the satellitebased estimates performed best in summer. The GLDAS simulations revealed that modeled soil moisture is highly sensitive to precipitation, with differences in spring and summer as large as 45% depending on the choice of precipitation input.

Gottschalck, Jon↗
NASA NTRS2007

Seasonal Snow Extent and Snow Mass in South America Using SMMR and SSM/I Passive Microwave Data (1979-2003)

Seasonal snow cover in South America was examined in this study using passive microwave satellite data from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-satellite and the Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSM/I) on board Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. For the period from 1979-2003, both snow cover extent and snow depth (snow mass) were investigated during coldest months (May-September), primarily in the Patagonia area of Argentina and in Chile. Most of the seasonal snow in South America is in the Patagonia region of Argentina. Since winter temperatures in this region are often above freezing, the coldest winter month was found to be the month having the most extensive snow cover and also usually the month having the deepest snow cover as well. Sharp year-to-year differences were recorded using the passive microwave observations. The average snow cover extent for July, the month with the greatest average snow extent during the 25-year period of record, is 320,700 km(exp 2). In July of 1984, the average monthly snow cover was 701,250 km(exp 2) - the most extensive coverage observed between 1979 and 2003. However, in July of 1989, snow cover extent was only 120 km(exp 2). The 25-year period of record shows a sinusoidal like pattern, though there appears to be no obvious trend in either increasing or decreasing snow extent or snow mass between 1979 and 2003.

Foster, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Vitamin D: Spaceflight, Antarctic, and JSC

Obtaining vitamin D is critical for space travelers because they lack ultraviolet light exposure and have an insufficient dietary supply of vitamin D. Despite the provision of vitamin D supplements to International Space Station (ISS) crewmembers, vitamin D status is consistently lower after flight than before flight, and in several crewmembers has decreased to levels considered clinically significant. Vitamin D has long been known to play a role in calcium metabolism, and more recently its non-calcitropic functions have been recognized. According to the results of several recent studies, functionally relevant measures indicate that the lower limit of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (a marker of vitamin D status) should be raised from the current 25 nmol/L to 80 nmol/L. The sub-optimal pre- and postflight vitamin D status is an issue that needs to be addressed, to allow NASA to better define the appropriate amount of supplemental vitamin D to serve as a countermeasure against vitamin D deficiency in astronaut crews. This is very important for long-duration crewmembers, and is critical for exploration-class missions. Ground-based models with limited sunlight exposure could be valuable for evaluating vitamin D supplementation efficacy. One such model is subjects spending the winter in Antarctica, where UV-B radiation levels are zero during the winter. Data from a study of such subjects will enable us to provide long-duration space flight crewmembers with evidence-based recommendations for vitamin D supplementation to achieve optimal vitamin D status before, during, and after flight. We report here results from a vitamin D supplementation study conducted in 2007 in Antarctica at McMurdo Station, and plans for a study to be implemented over the course of 2009. Additionally, in 2008, a study was initiated (and is ongoing) to assess efficacy and safety of supplementing with 2000 IU daily, 10,000 IU weekly, or 50,000 IU weekly for a month and then monthly after that. The data from these studies will enable us to provide space crews with evidence-based recommendations for vitamin D supplementation. The findings also have implications for other persons with limited UV light exposure, including polar workers and the elderly.

Smith, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Comparison of GPCP Monthly and Daily Precipitation Estimates with High-Latitude Gauge Observations

It is very important to know how much rain and snow falls around the world for uses that range from crop forecasting to disaster response, drought monitoring to flood forecasting, and weather analysis to climate research. Precipitation is usually measured with rain gauges, but rain gauges don t exist in areas that are sparsely populated, which tends to be a good portion of the globe. To overcome this, meteorologists use satellite data to estimate global precipitation. However, it is difficult to estimate rain and especially snow in cold climates using most current satellites. The satellite sensors are often "confused" by a snowy or frozen surface and therefore cannot distinguish precipitation. One commonly used satellite-based precipitation data set, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, overcomes this frozen-surface problem through the innovative use of two sources of satellite data, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Though the GPCP estimates are generally considered a very reliable source of precipitation, it has been difficult to assess the quality of these estimates in cold climates due to the lack of gauges. Recently, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has provided a 12-year span of high-quality daily rain gauge observations, covering all of Finland, that can be used to compare with the GPCP data to determine how well the satellites estimate cold-climate precipitation. Comparison of the monthly GPCP satellite-based estimates and the FMI gauge observations shows remarkably good agreement, with the GPCP estimates being 6% lower in the amount of precipitation than the FMI observations. Furthermore, the month-to-month correlation between the GPCP and FMI is very high at 0.95 (1.0 is perfect). The daily GPCP estimates replicate the FMI daily occurrences of precipitation with a correlation of 0.55 in the summer and 0.45 in the winter. The winter result indicates the GPCP estimates have skill in "seeing" snowfall, which is the most challenging situation. Thus, the GPCP data set successfully overcomes a current limitation in satellite meteorology, namely the estimation of cold-climate precipitation. The success of the GPCP data set bodes well for future missions, whose instrumentation is specifically designed to give even more information for addressing cold-climate precipitation.

Bolvin, David T.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evidence for Interhemispheric Coupling during the Unusual Northern Polar Summer Mesosphere of 2002

Data from the MaCWAVE MIDAS Rocket Program launched during July, 2002, from Andoya Rocket Range (ARR) in Norway have demonstrated that the temperature structure of the summer polar mesosphere during this period was atypical, at least above ARR. The summer polar mesopause region was warmer than normal and of shorter duration than for other years analyzed. Theoretical studies have since been published that imply that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by unusual dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these characteristics on a global scale and compare them with the features observed in the ensuing seven years. For background, The TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). The SABER instrument on TIMED is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure a large number of minor constituents as well as temperature of the MLT. In this study, we have investigated the temperature characteristics of the polar mesosphere as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We have used the most recent SABER dataset (1.07) that includes the improved temperature retrievals in Earth polar regions, Weekly averages were used 10 make the comparisons between the winter and summer hemispheres. The unusually short polar summer in the northern hemisphere during 2002 is clearly defined by this analysis and is shown to be unique for the 7 years analyzed. Furthermore, the data analysis agrees with recent theoretical studies showing that this behavior is a result of anomalous heating events in the southern polar stratosphere. The time sequence of the coupling process, as predicted by recent theoretical models, is well defined in a sequence of weekly temperature contour maps measured by SABER.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Continuous Lidar Monitoring of Polar Stratospheric Clouds at the South Pole

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) play a primary role in the formation of annual ozone holes over Antarctica during the austral sunrise. Meridional temperature gradients in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, caused by strong radiative cooling, induce a broad dynamic vortex centered near the South Pole that decouples and insulates the winter polar airmass. PSC nucleate and grow as vortex temperatures gradually fall below equilibrium saturation and frost points for ambient sulfate, nitrate, and water vapor concentrations (generally below 197 K). Cloud surfaces promote heterogeneous reactions that convert stable chlorine and bromine-based molecules into photochemically active ones. As spring nears, and the sun reappears and rises, photolysis decomposes these partitioned compounds into individual halogen atoms that react with and catalytically destroy thousands of ozone molecules before they are stochastically neutralized. Despite a generic understanding of the ozone hole paradigm, many key components of the system, such as cloud occurrence, phase, and composition; particle growth mechanisms; and denitrification of the lower stratosphere have yet to be fully resolved. Satellite-based observations have dramatically improved the ability to detect PSC and quantify seasonal polar chemical partitioning. However, coverage directly over the Antarctic plateau is limited by polar-orbiting tracks that rarely exceed 80 degrees S. In December 1999, a NASA Micropulse Lidar Network instrument (MPLNET) was first deployed to the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) Atmospheric Research Observatory at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station for continuous cloud and aerosol profiling. MPLNET instruments are eye-safe, capable of full-time autonomous operation, and suitably rugged and compact to withstand long-term remote deployment. With only brief interruptions during the winters of 2001 and 2002, a nearly continuous data archive exists to the present.

OZONE DESTRUCTION↗
NASA NTRS2010

Exploiting the Free Landsat Archive for Operational Monitoring of Ecosystem Condition and Change Across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

For the first time, all imagery acquired by the Landsat series of satellites is being made available by the USGS to users at no cost. This represents a key opportunity to use Landsat in a truly operational monitoring framework: large regions of the U.S. such as the Chesapeake Bay Watershed can now be analyzed using "wall-to-wall" imagery at timescales from approximately 1 month to several years. With the future launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) and Decadal Survey missions such as the hyperspectral HyspIRI, it is imperative to develop robust processing systems to perform annual ecosystem assessments over large regions such as the Chesapeake Bay. We have been working at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to develop an integrative framework for inserting 30m, annual, Landsat based data and derived products into the existing decision support system for the Bay, with a particular focus on ecosystem condition and changes over the entire watershed. The basic goal is to use a 'stack' of Landsat imagery with 40% or less cloud cover to produce multi-date (2005-2009 period), cloud/shadow/gap-free composited surface reflectance products that will support the creation of watershed scale land cover/ use products and the monitoring of ecosystem change across the Bay. Our scientific focus extends beyond the conventional definition of land cover (i.e. a classification of vegetation type) as we propose to monitor both changes in surface type (e.g. forest to urban), vegetation structure (e.g. forest disturbance due to logging or insect damage), as well as winter crop cover. These processes represent a continuum from large, interannual changes in land cover type, to subtler, intra-annual changes associated with short-term disturbance. The free Landsat data are being processed to surface reflectance and composited using the existing Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System here at NASA/ GSFC, and land cover products (type, tree cover, impervious cover, winter cover) are being produced using well-established decision tree and regression tree algorithms. The goal of this session is to present the data products that we have been developing to the Bay science community and to discuss potential avenues for improvements and usage of the products for decision support.

BrowndeColstoun, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2010

QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Rapidly Shrinking Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

Among the most dramatic changes in the Arctic in recent years was the precipitous decline in the perennial ice cover. In 2007, the perennial ice area was 37% lower than climatological average and 28% lower than the previous low established in 2005. In 2008, the perennial ice recovered somewhat because of colder global temperatures but by only about 6% of average value. The trend in the ice area covered by perennial ice is now -12.5% per decade using data from 1979 to 2009 which compared to a previous report of -9% per decade derived from 1979 to 2000 data indicates an accelerated decline. To gain insight into the phenomenon, we studied the mUltiyear ice cover as detected by satellite sensor in winter. The multiyear ice as detected in winter represents ice that has generally survived two summers and therefore the thicker component of the perennial ice cover. Analysis of the thicker multiyear ice types indicates an even more rapid decline of 17% per decade. Such decline in the thick component of the Arctic ice cover that normally survives the summer means an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. Much of the decline occurred in the western region of the Arctic Basin (Le., Chukchi and Beaufort Seas) where the open water area has been increasing by about 35% per decade. Such increase in low albedo ice free region causes the absorption of considerably more solar heat in the Arctic basin. This causes further decline in the ice cover in a process called ice-albedo feedback. A manifestation of such process is the observed trend in SST in the basin of about 0.5 + 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade as derived from satellite data

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A 10-Year Climatology of Cloud Cover and Vertical Distribution Derived from Both Surface and GOES Observations Over the DOE ARM SGP Site

Analysis of a decade of ARM radar-lidar and GOES observations at the SGP site reveal that 0.5 and 4-hr averages of the surface cloud fraction correspond closely to 0.5deg and 2.5deg averages of GOES cloudiness, respectively. The long-term averaged surface and GOES cloud fractions agree to within 0.5%. Cloud frequency increases and cloud amount decreases as the temporal and spatial averaging scales increase. Clouds occurred most often during winter and spring. Single-layered clouds account for 61.5% of the total cloud frequency. There are distinct bimodal vertical distributions of clouds with a lower peak around 1 km and an upper one that varies from 7.5 to 10.8 km between winter and summer, respectively. The frequency of occurrence for nighttime GOES high-cloud tops agree well with the surface observations, but are underestimated during the day.

Xi, Baike↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Observed Relationship Between Water Vapor and Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Saturation Layer and the Influence of Meridional Transport

We examine balloonsonde observations of water vapor and ozone from three Ticosonde campaigns over San Jose, Costa Rica [10 N, 84 W] during northern summer and a fourth during northern winter. The data from the summer campaigns show that the uppermost portion of the tropical tropopause layer between 360 and 380 K, which we term the tropopause saturation layer or TSL, is characterized by water vapor mixing ratios from proximately 3 to 15 ppmv and ozone from approximately 50 ppbv to 250 ppbv. In contrast, the atmospheric water vapor tape recorder at 380 K and above displays a more restricted 4-7 ppmv range in water vapor mixing ratio. From this perspective, most of the parcels in the TSL fall into two classes - those that need only additional radiative heating to rise into the tape recorder and those requiring some combination of additional dehydration and mixing with drier air. A substantial fraction of the latter class have ozone mixing ratios greater than 150 ppbv, and with water vapor greater than 7 ppmv this air may well have been transported into the tropics from the middle latitudes in conjunction with high-amplitude equatorial waves. We examine this possibility with both trajectory analysis and transport diagnostics based on HIRDLS ozone data. We apply the same approach to study the winter season. Here a very different regime obtains as the ozone-water vapor scatter diagram of the sonde data shows the stratosphere and troposphere to be clearly demarcated with little evidence of mixing in of middle latitude air parcels.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Temporal Variations of Titan's Middle-Atmospheric Temperatures From 2004-2009 Observed by Cassini/CIRS

We use five and one-half years of limb- and nadir-viewing temperature mapping observations by the Composite Infrared Radiometer-Spectrometer (CIRS) on the Cassini Saturn orbiter, taken between July 2004 and December 2009 (Ls from 293deg to 4deg; northern mid-winter to just after northern spring equinox), to monitor temperature changes in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere of Titan. The largest changes are in the northern (winter) polar stratopause, which has declined in temperature by over 20 K between 2005 and 2009. Throughout the rest of the mid to upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere, temperature changes are less than 5 K. In the southern hemisphere, temperatures in the middle stratosphere near 1 mbar increased by 1 to 2K from 2004 through early 2007, then declined by 2 to 4K throughout 2008 and 2009, with the changes, being larger at more, polar latitudes. Middle stratospheric temperatures at mid-northern latitudes show a small 1 to 2K increase, from 2005 through 2009. At north polar latitudes within the polar vortex, temperatures in the middle stratosphe=re show a approx. 4 K increase during 2007, followed by a comparable decrease in temperatures in 2008 and into early 2009. The observed temperature. changes in the north polar region are consistent with a weakening of the subsidence within the descending branch of the middle atmosphere meridional circulation.

Achterberg, Richard K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Vertical Distribution of Thin Features Over the Arctic Analysed from CALIPSO Observations: Aerosols - Part 2

Influx of aerosols from the mid-latitudes has a wide range of impacts on the Arctic atmosphere. In this study, the capability of the CALIPSO-CALIOP instrument to provide accurate observations of aerosol layers is exploited to characterize their vertical distribution, probability density functions (PDFs) of aerosol layer thickness, base and top heights, and optical depths over the Arctic for the 4-yr period from June 2006 to May 2010. It is shown that the bulk of aerosols, from about 65% in winter to 45% in summer, are confined below the lowermost kilometer of the troposphere. In the middle troposphere (3-5 km), spring and autumn seasons show slightly higher aerosol amounts compared to other two seasons. The relative vertical distribution of aerosols shows that clean continental aerosol is the largest contributor in all seasons except in summer, when layers of polluted continental aerosols are almost as large. In winter and spring, polluted continental aerosols are the second largest contributor to the total number of observed aerosol layers, whereas clean marine aerosol is the second largest contributor in summer and autumn. The PDFs of the geometrical thickness of the observed aerosol layers peak about 400-700 m. Polluted continental and smoke aerosols, which are associated with the intrusions from mid-latitudes, have much broader distributions of optical and geometrical thicknesses, suggesting that they appear more often optically thicker and higher up in the troposphere.

Devasthale, Abhya↗
NASA NTRS2011

Predicting Hydrological Drought: Relative Contributions of Soil Moisture and Snow Information to Seasonal Streamflow Prediction Skill

in this study we examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture conditions contribute to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance. A first "synthetic truth" analysis focuses on a series of numerical experiments with multiple sophisticated land surface models driven with a dataset of observations-based meteorological forcing spanning multiple decades and covering the continental United States. Snowpack information by itself obviously contributes to the skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west. The isolated contribution of soil moisture information, however, is found to be large and significant in many areas, particularly in the west but also in region surrounding the Great Lakes. The results are supported by a supplemental, observations-based analysis using (naturalized) March-July streamflow measurements covering much of the western U.S. Additional forecast experiments using start dates that span the year indicate a strong seasonality in the skill contributions; soil moisture information, for example, contributes to kill at much longer leads for forecasts issued in winter than for those issued in summer.

Koster, R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The ESA-NASA 'CHOICE' Study: Winterover at Concordia Station, Interior Antarctica, as an Analog for Spaceflight-Associated Immune Dysregu1ation

For ground-based space physiological research, the choice of analog must carefully match the system of interest. Antarctica winter-over at the European Concordia Station is potentially a ground-analog for spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation (SAID). Concordia missions consist of prolonged durations in an extreme/dangerous environment, station-based habitation, isolation, disrupted circadian rhythms and international crews. The ESA-NASA CHOICE study assess innate and adaptive immunity, viral reactivataion and stress factors during Concordia winter-over deployment. To date, not all samples have been analyzed. Here, only data will be preliminary presented for those parameters where sample/data analysis is completed (i.e., Leukocyte subsets, T cell function, and intracellular/secreted cytokine profiles.)

Crucian, Brian E,↗
NASA NTRS2011

Prediction of Hydrological Drought: What Can We Learn From Continental-Scale Offline Simulations?

Land surface model experiments are used to quantify, across the coterminous United States, the contributions (isolated and combined) of soil moisture and snowpack initialization to the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts at multiple leads and for different start dates. Forecasted streamflows are compared to naturalized streamflow observations where available and to synthetic (model-generated) streamflow data elsewhere. We find that snow initialization has a major impact on skill in the mountainous western U.S. and in a portion of the northern Great Plains; a mid-winter (January 1) initialization of snow in these areas leads to significant skill in the spring melting season. Soil moisture initialization also contributes to skill, and although the maximum contributions are not as large as those seen for snow initialization, the soil moisture contributions extend across a much broader geographical area. Soil moisture initialization can contribute to skill at long leads (up to 5 or 6 months), particularly for forecasts issued during winter.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS2011

Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Recent North Polar Summer Periods as Predicted by MaCWAVE/MIDAS Rocket Data and Traced by TIMED/SABER Measurements

In July, 2002, the MaCWAVE-MIDAS Rocket Program was launched from And0ya Rocket Range (ARR) in Norway. Data from these flights demonstrated that the polar summer mesosphere during this period was unusual, at least above ARR. Theoretical studies have since been published that imply that the abnormal characteristics of this polar summer were generated by dynamical processes occurring in the southern polar winter hemisphere. We have used data from the SABER instrument aboard the NASA TIMED Satellite to study these characteristics and compare them with the features observed in the ensuing eight years. For background, the TIMED Satellite was launched on December 7, 2001 to study the dynamics and energy of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The SABER instrument is a limb scanning infrared radiometer designed to measure temperature of the region as well as a large number of minor constituents. In this study, we review the MaCWAVE rocket results. Next, we investigate the temperature characteristics of the polar mesosphere as a function of spatial and temporal considerations. We have used the most recent SABER dataset (1.07). Weekly averages are used to make comparisons between the winter and summer hemispheres. Furthermore, the data analysis agrees with recent theoretical studies showing that this behavior is a result of anomalous dynamical events in the southern hemisphere. The findings discussed here clearly show the value of scientific rocket flights used in a discovery mode.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗