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At least 1,729 records · Page 96
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NASA NTRS2019

Predicting Well-Connected SEP Events from Observations of Solar EUVs and Energetic Protons

This study shows a quantitative assessment of the use of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) observations in the prediction of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events. The UMASEP scheme (Space Weather, 9, S07003, 2011; 13, 2015, 807-819) forecasts the occurrence and the intensity of the first hours of SEP events. in order to predict well-connected events, this scheme correlates Solar Soft X-rays (SXR) with differential proton fluxes of the GOES satellites. In this study, we explore the use of the EUV time history from GOES-EUVS and SDO-AIA instruments in the UMASEP scheme. This study presents the results of the prediction of the occurrence of well-connected >10 MeV SEP events, for the period from May 2010 to December 2017, in terms of Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Crticial Success Index (CSI), and the average and median of the warning times. The UMASEP/EUV-based models were calibrated using GOES and SDO data from May 2010 to October 2014, and validated using out-of-sample SDO data from November 2014 to December 2017. The best results were obtained by those models that used EUV data in the range 50-340 angstroms. We conclude that the UMASEP/EUV-based models yield similar or better POD results, and similar or worse FAR results, than those of the current real-time UMSEP/SXR-based model. The reason for the higher POD of the UMASEP/EUV-based models in the range of 50-340 angstroms was due to the high percentage of successful predictions of well-connected SEP events associated with 10 MeV SEP events, improves the overall performance, obtaining a POD of 92.9% (39/42) compared with 81% (34/42) of the current tool, and a slightly worse FAR of 31.6% (18/57) compared with 29.2% (14/58) of the current tool.

Nunez, Marlon↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period August 25-29, 2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared to the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed Drop Size Distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value of α=0.015 and β=0.600 and β=0.625 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David B Wolff↗
NASA NTRS2019

Development of a Drought and Yield Assessment System in Kenya

Dependence on rainfed agriculture in a highly variable climate, renders crop and livestock production vulnerable to impacts of drought in Kenya. Stakeholders in the region have highlighted the need for timely and actionable detailed early warning information on drought and its implication on crop productivity. Here we apply the Regional Hydrological Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) to estimate current and future drought conditions onset, severity, recovery, and duration) and expected productivity outlooks.

Ellenburg, Walter Lee, II↗
NASA NTRS2019

New Era, New Opportunity, Is GES DISC Ready for Big Data Challenge?

The new era of Big Data has opened doors for many new opportunities, as well as new challenges, for both Earth science research/application and data communities. As one of the twelve NASA data centers - Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), one of our great challenges has been how to help research/application community efficiently (quickly and properly) accessing, visualizing and analyzing the massive and diverse data in natural hazard research, management, or even prediction. GES DISC has archived over 2000 TB data on premises and distributed over 23,000 TB of data since 2010. Our data has been widely used in every phase of natural hazard management and research, i.e. long term risk assessment and reduction, forecasting and predicting, monitoring and detection, early warning, damage assessment and response. The big data challenge is not just about data storage, but also about data discoverability and accessibility, and even more, about data migration/mirroring in the cloud. This paper is going to demonstrate GES DISC’s efforts and approaches of evolving our overall Web services and powerful Giovanni (Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) tool into further improving data discoverability and accessibility. Prototype works will also be presented.

Li, A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Verification of the Convection-Allowing Ensemble System over the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region During the 2018 and 2019 Pre-Monsoon Severe Thunderstorm Seasons

Some of the most intense thunderstorms on the planet occur in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of South-Central Asia. NASA/SERVIR Applied Sciences Team competitive project to develop capacity of severe thunderstorm monitoring and forecasting tool for HKH. Project Goal: Use [NASA] modeling and remote-sensing assets to build early warning capabilities and facilitate timely disaster response for high impact weather events in the HKH region. Specific objectives: 1. Prototype and transition High-Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) 2. Jointly develop HIWAT capabilities & training with SERVIR’s hub in Kathmandu, Nepal: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) 3. Demonstrate capacity in end-user environment 4. Transition HIWAT system to ICIMOD for future maintenance.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project: Low SWaP HITL 2, SC-228 Outbrief, EO/IR & ATAR Breakout

This presentation provides an overview of a recently completed human-in-the-loop simulation, conducted as part of the Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project. This study explored the differential effects of four low size, weight, and power radar declaration ranges on pilot and system performance. Pilots were to avoid DAA well clear against cooperative and non-cooperative aircraft under 1.5, 2, 2.5, and 3 nautical mile non-cooperative detection ranges. Results revealed that pilot performance was primarily influenced by warning-level alert duration, with sufficient alerting time being most prevalent at 2.5 nautical miles and above.

Monk, Kevin J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Searching for Hyperspectral Optical Proxies to Aid Chesapeake Bay Resource Managers in the Detection of Poor Water Quality

Shellfish aquaculture is a growing industry in the Chesapeake Bay. As population grows near the coast, extreme weather events cause a greater volume of pollutant runoff from impervious surfaces and agricultural lands. Resource managers who monitor shellfish beds need reliable information on a variety of water quality indicators at higher frequency than is possible through field monitoring programs and at a higher level of detail than current satellite products can provide. Although many factors causing degraded water quality that can impact human health are not currently discernable by traditional multispectral techniques, hyperspectral imagery offers a new opportunity to detect phytoplankton communities associated with harmful algal blooms and biotoxin production. Together with resource managers in their routine monitoring of sites around the bay from small boats, we have been exploring remotely sensed optical proxies for the detection of harmful algal blooms and sewage. Early warning by remote sensing could guide sampling and improve the efficiency of shellfish bed closures, ultimately improving health outcomes for humans and animals. An extensive network of routine sampling by Chesapeake Bay Program managers makes this is an ideal location to develop and test future satellite data products to support management decisions. Next generation hyperspectral measurements from the future Plankton Aerosol Cloud ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission at nearly daily frequency, combined with the potential of higher spatial resolution from the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) observing system recommended in the recent Decadal Survey, along with high frequency observations from the newly selected Geostationary Littoral Imaging and Monitoring Radiometer (GLIMR) Earth Venture Instrument make this a critical time for defining the needs of the aquaculture and resource management community to save lives, time, and money.

Schollaert Uz, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS2020

Developing a Customized Composite Drought Index for Pakistan

Pakistan experiences frequent and intense agricultural drought, varying spatially and temporally. Prolonged dry conditions often result in failed crop production. Using multiple variables, different components of drought can be captured across a multitude of climatic zones and throughout different seasons. Developing a composite drought index (CDI), specific for each district, will provide a more complete view of agricultural drought and enhance early warning systems.

Schwartz, Caily↗
NASA NTRS2019

Sense and Avoid Characterization of the Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems

Abstract—Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems (ICAROUS) is a distributed software architecture developed by NASA Langley Research Center to enable safe autonomous UAS operations. ICAROUS consists of a collection formally verified core algorithms for path planning, traffic avoidance, geofence handling, and decision making that interface with an autopilot system through a publisher-subscriber middleware. The ICAROUS Sense and Avoid Characterization (ISAAC) test was designed to evaluate the performance of the onboard Sense and Avoid (SAA) capability to detect potential conflicts with other aircraft and autonomously maneuver to avoid collisions, while remaining within the airspace boundaries of the mission. The ISAAC tests evaluated the impact of separation distances and alerting times on SAA performance. A preliminary analysis of the effects of each parameter on key measures of performance is conducted, informing the choice of appropriate parameter values for different small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) applications. Furthermore, low-power Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) is evaluated for potential use to enable autonomous sUAS to sUAS deconflictions as well as to provide usable warnings for manned aircraft without saturating the frequency spectrum.

Consiglio, Maria↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin

Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated - EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks, and to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.

Adelaide Schmid↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated -EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensor-based Prognostics for Safe Batteries for Electric Aircraft

With a new start awarded under CAS for Fiscal Year 2020, the Sensor-based Prognostics to Avoid Runaway Reactions and Catastrophic Ignition project, or SPARRCI, aims to eliminate safety risks of lithium-ion and next-generation lithium-based batteries. SPARRCI is taking a deeper dive into the inner workings of battery cells by introducing miniature multifunctional sensors within the cells to detect early signs of failure. Combined with nondestructive evaluation techniques to gather complementary battery health data, battery data will be monitored in real-time via prognostics which will ultimately be able to identify when the cell is exhibiting abnormal behavior bordering on failure, with the ability to provide early warning such that the battery may be taken offline prior to catastrophic failure events.

Brianne Demattia↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automatic Generation of Guard-Stable Floating-Point Code

In floating-point programs, test instability occurs when the control flow of a conditional statement diverges from its ideal execution under real arithmetic. This phenomenon is caused by the presence of round-off errors in floating-point computations. Writing programs that correctly handle test instability often require expertise on finite precision computations and rounding errors. This paper presents a fully automatic tool chain that generates and formally verifies a test-stable floating-point C program from its functional specification in real arithmetic. The generated program is instrumented to soundly detect when unstable tests may occur and, in these cases, to issue a warning. The proposed approach combines the PRECiSA floating-point static analyzer, the Frama-C software verification suite, and the PVS theorem prover.

Floating-Point Arithmetic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. The study findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Tech Paper: Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

Kinley Dorji↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bhutan Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Precipitation, Temperature, and Phenology Data Trends in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Himalayan countries, including Bhutan, have become vulnerable to warming trends which result in increasing temperature and variable rainfall and snowfall. By combining phenological and meteorological data, Earth observation platforms and sensors were used to assess trends in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation phenology in Bhutan from 1996 through 2017. This project studied precipitation using Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station data, analyzed temperature using the Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System, incorporated elevation data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, and assessed vegetation phenology using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to evaluate climate variability and its effects on Bhutan. In situ temperature and precipitation data were also collected from the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) project and Bhutan’s National Center for Hydrology and Meterology. Modeled and in situ data showed similar trends in precipitation and temperature for the Thimpu, Chhukha, and Gasa regions. Aqua and Terra MODIS phenology data were variable from year to year. However, the data suggested a late onset of spring green up. Partners at the Bhutan Foundation and locally in Bhutan can use this information to better understand and monitor climate variability and replicate these methods for future analysis.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

UAS Pilot Performance Comparisons with Different Low Size, Weight and Power Sensor Ranges

The present study evaluated the performance of UAS pilots under four simulated low size, weight, and power (SwaP) sensor ranges: 1.5nmi, 2.0nmi, 2.5nmi, and 3.0nmi. Nine active-duty UAS pilots responded to scripted DAA conflicts against non-cooperative intruders while flying a simulated RQ-7 Shadow at varied speeds along a pre-filed flight path in Class E airspace. Findings revealed a linear effect of sensor range on alerting time and separation performance, with nearly every DAA well clear (DWC) violation and all Near Mid-Air Collision (NMAC) events occurring below 2.5nmi. Response time differences at these reduced ranges were negligible due to the high frequency of warning-level alerts that require an immediate response. Since caution alert duration was truncated to some degree by each tested declaration range, pilots were often unable to coordinate their avoidance maneuvers with ATC prior to their uploads. Nonetheless, the 2.5nmi range allowed minimum alerting times that were sufficient for acceptable pilot performance. These findings will inform DAA system requirements for UAS with alternative surveillance equipment and aircraft performance capabilities. Implications on DAA display and sensor requirements are discussed.

unmanned aircraft systems↗