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DOE OSTI2018

Oscillations and Waves in a Nonlinear System with the 1/f Spectrum

Numerical methods are used to study a spatially distributed system of two nonlinear stochastic equations that simulate interacting phase transitions. Conditions for self-oscillations and waves are determined. The 1/f and 1/k spectra of extreme fluctuations are formed when waves emerge and move under the action of white noise. The distribution of the extreme fluctuations corresponds to the maximum entropy, which is proven by the stability of the 1/f and 1/k spectra. The formation and motion of waves under external periodic perturbation are accompanied by spatiotemporal chaotic resonance in which the domain of periodic pulsations is extended under the action of white noise.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

An Organic Memristive Element Based on Single Polyaniline/Polyamide-6 Fiber

Conducting hybrid polyaniline-coated polyamide-6 fiber has been obtained and used as the basis for an organic memristive element. The proposed device exhibits resistive switching with a continuous character of conductance variation. The results show that the proposed organic memristor can be used for creating three-dimensional stochastic networks based on hybrid nonwoven materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2011

Scattering effects at near-wall flow measurements using Doppler global velocimetry

Doppler global velocimetry (DGV) is considered to be a useful optical measurement tool for acquiring flow velocity fields. Often near-wall measurements are required, which is still challenging due to errors resulting from background scattering and multiple-particle scattering. Since the magnitudes of both errors are unknown so far, they are investigated by scattering simulations and experiments. Multiple-particle scattering mainly causes a stochastic error, which can be reduced by averaging. Contrary to this, background scattering results in a relative systematic error, which is directly proportional to the ratio of the background scattered light power to the total scattered light power. After applying a correction method and optimizing the measurement arrangement, a subsonic flat plate boundary layer was successfully measured achieving a minimum wall distance of 100 {mu}m with a maximum relative error of 6%. The investigations reveal the current capabilities and perspectives of DGV for near-wall measurements.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Catalyst: Fast and flexible modeling of reaction networks

We introduce Catalyst.jl, a flexible and feature-filled Julia library for modeling and high-performance simulation of chemical reaction networks (CRNs). Catalyst supports simulating stochastic chemical kinetics (jump process), chemical Langevin equation (stochastic differential equation), and reaction rate equation (ordinary differential equation) representations for CRNs. Through comprehensive benchmarks, we demonstrate that Catalyst simulation runtimes are often one to two orders of magnitude faster than other popular tools. More broadly, Catalyst acts as both a domain-specific language and an intermediate representation for symbolically encoding CRN models as Julia-native objects. This enables a pipeline of symbolically specifying, analyzing, and modifying CRNs; converting Catalyst models to symbolic representations of concrete mathematical models; and generating compiled code for numerical solvers. Leveraging ModelingToolkit.jl and Symbolics.jl, Catalyst models can be analyzed, simplified, and compiled into optimized representations for use in numerical solvers. Finally, we demonstrate Catalyst’s broad extensibility and composability by highlighting how it can compose with a variety of Julia libraries, and how existing open-source biological modeling projects have extended its intermediate representation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Human and Environmental Impacts on River Sediment Microbial Communities

Sediment microbial communities are responsible for a majority of the metabolic activity in river and stream ecosystems. Understanding the dynamics in community structure and function across freshwater environments will help us to predict how these ecosystems will change in response to human land-use practices. Here we present a spatiotemporal study of sediments in the Tongue River (Montana, USA), comprising six sites along 134 km of river sampled in both spring and fall for two years. Sequencing of 16S rRNA amplicons and shotgun metagenomes revealed that these sediments are the richest (~65,000 microbial ‘species’ identified) and most novel (93% of OTUs do not match known microbial diversity) ecosystems analyzed by the Earth Microbiome Project to date, and display more functional diversity than was detected in a recent review of global soil metagenomes. Community structure and functional potential have been significantly altered by anthropogenic drivers, including increased pathogenicity and antibiotic metabolism markers near towns and metabolic signatures of coal and coalbed methane extraction byproducts. The core (OTUs shared across all samples) and the overall microbial community exhibited highly similar structure, and phylogeny was weakly coupled with functional potential. Together, these results suggest that microbial community structure is shaped by environmental drivers and niche filtering, though stochastic assembly processes likely play a role as well. These results indicate that sediment microbial communities are highly complex and sensitive to changes in land use practices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Seismic Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty

Artificial intelligence has transformed the seismic community with deep learning models (DLMs) that are trained to complete specific tasks within workflows. However, there is still a lack of robust evaluation frameworks for evaluating and comparing DLMs. Here, we address this gap by designing an evaluation framework that jointly incorporates two crucial aspects: performance uncertainty and learning efficiency. To target these aspects, we meticulously construct the training, validation, and test splits using a clustering method tailored to seismic data and enact an expansive training design to segregate performance uncertainty arising from stochastic training processes and random data sampling. The framework’s ability to guard against misleading declarations of model superiority is demonstrated through the evaluation of PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2018), a popular seismic phase picking DLM, under three training approaches. Our framework helps practitioners choose the best model for their problem and set performance expectations by explicitly analyzing model performance with uncertainty at varying budgets of training data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Post-hoc reweighting of hadron production in the Lund string model

We present a method for reweighting flavor selection in the Lund string fragmentation model. This is the process of calculating and applying event weights enabling fast and exact variation of hadronization parameters on pre-generated event samples. The procedure is post hoc, requiring only a small amount of additional information stored per event, and allowing for efficient estimation of hadronization uncertainties without repeated simulation. Weight expressions are derived from the hadronization algorithm itself, and validated against direct simulation for a wide range of observables and parameter shifts. The hadronization algorithm can be viewed as a hierarchical Markov process with stochastic rejections, a structure common to many complex simulations outside of high-energy physics. This perspective makes the method modular, extensible, and potentially transferable to other domains. We demonstrate the approach in Pythia, including both coverage considerations and timing benefits. For the purpose of this paper, our goal is to develop and demonstrate the the formalism, and we therefore exclude several model variations for baryon production (popcorn model, junction production) needed for proton collisions. These will be the topic of a future paper.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Modeling Stress Strain Relationships and Predicting Failure Probabilities For Graphite Core Components

This project will implement inelastic constitutive models that will yield the requisite stress-strain information necessary for graphite component design. Accurate knowledge of stress states (both elastic and inelastic) is required to assess how close a nuclear core component is to failure. Strain states are needed to assess deformations in order to ascertain serviceability issues relating to failure, e.g., whether too much shrinkage has taken place for the core to function properly. Failure probabilities, as opposed to safety factors, are required in order to capture the bariability in failure strength in tensile regimes. The current stress state is used to predict the probability of failure. Stochastic failure models will be developed that can accommodate possible material anisotropy. This work will also model material damage (i.e., degradation of mechanical properties) due to radiation exposure. The team will design tools for components fabricated from nuclear graphite. These tools must readily interact with finite element software--in particular, COMSOL, the software algorithm currently being utilized by the Idaho National Laboratory. For the eleastic response of graphite, the team will adopt anisotropic stress-strain relationships available in COMSO. Data from the literature will be utilized to characterize the appropriate elastic material constants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Advanced Concepts for Ultrahigh Brightness and Low Temperature Beams. Final Report

This grant supported research on techniques to manipulate and combine positrons and antiprotons to synthesize, and to probe, antihydrogen. The majority of the research was conducted as part of the ALPHA Collaboration at CERN. Using ideas and techniques from accelerator physics, we proposed a new method for measuring the the gravitational attraction of antihydrogen to the Earth's field. ALPHA reported the first precision charge measurement on antihydrogen and a crude bound on its gravitational dynamics in the Earth's field. We proposed using a stochastic acceleration method to measure any putative charge of antihydrogen and built numerical models of the mixing of antiprotons and positrons. Further research included proposing the radiator-first concept for operating an X-ray free electron laser driven by a high repetition rate bunch source and studying scattering in passive foil-based ion focusing systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Stochastic Modeling of Radioactive Material Releases

Nonreactor nuclear facilities operated under the approval authority of the U.S. Department of Energy use unmitigated hazard evaluations to determine if potential radiological doses associated with design basis events challenge or exceed dose evaluation guidelines. Unmitigated design basis events that sufficiently challenge dose evaluation guidelines or exceed the guidelines for members of the public or workers, merit selection of safety structures, systems, or components or other controls to prevent or mitigate the hazard. Idaho State University, in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory, has developed a portable and simple to use software application called SODA (Stochastic Objective Decision-Aide) that stochastically calculates the radiation dose associated with hypothetical radiological material release scenarios. Rather than producing a point estimate of the dose, SODA produces a dose distribution result to allow a deeper understanding of the dose potential. SODA allows users to select the distribution type and parameter values for all of the input variables used to perform the dose calculation. SODA then randomly samples each distribution input variable and calculates the overall resulting dose distribution. In cases where an input variable distribution is unknown, a traditional single point value can be used. SODA was developed using the MATLAB coding framework. The software application has a graphical user input. SODA can be installed on both Windows and Mac computers and does not require MATLAB to function. SODA provides improved risk understanding leading to better informed decision making associated with establishing nuclear facility material-at-risk limits and safety structure, system, or component selection. It is important to note that SODA does not replace or compete with codes such as MACCS or RSAC, rather it is viewed as an easy to use supplemental tool to help improve risk understanding and support better informed decisions. The work was funded through a grant from the DOE Nuclear Safety Research and Development Program.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2016

An Overview of the Monte Carlo Application ToolKit (MCATK)

MCATK is a C++ component-based Monte Carlo neutron-gamma transport software library designed to build specialized applications and designed to provide new functionality in existing general-purpose Monte Carlo codes like MCNP; it was developed with Agile software engineering methodologies under the motivation to reduce costs. The characteristics of MCATK can be summarized as follows: MCATK physics – continuous energy neutron-gamma transport with multi-temperature treatment, static eigenvalue (k and α) algorithms, time-dependent algorithm, fission chain algorithms; MCATK geometry – mesh geometries, solid body geometries. MCATK provides verified, unit-tested Monte Carlo components, flexibility in Monte Carlo applications development, and numerous tools such as geometry and cross section plotters. Recent work has involved deterministic and Monte Carlo analysis of stochastic systems. Static and dynamic analysis is discussed, and the results of a dynamic test problem are given.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Improving Limit Surface Search Algorithms in RAVEN Using Acceleration Schemes: Level II Milestone

The RAVEN code is becoming a comprehensive tool to perform Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA); Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Propagation; and Verification and Validation (V&V). The RAVEN code is being developed to support the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway by developing an advanced set of methodologies and algorithms for use in advanced risk analysis. The RISMC approach uses system simulator codes applied to stochastic analysis tools. The fundamental idea behind this coupling approach to perturb (by employing sampling strategies) timing and sequencing of events, internal parameters of the system codes (i.e., uncertain parameters of the physics model) and initial conditions to estimate values ranges and associated probabilities of figures of merit of interest for engineering and safety (e.g. core damage probability, etc.). This approach applied to complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires performing a series of computationally expensive simulation runs. The large computational burden is caused by the large set of (uncertain) parameters characterizing those systems. Consequently, exploring the uncertain/parametric domain, with a good level of confidence, is generally not affordable, considering the limited computational resources that are currently available. In addition, the recent tendency to develop newer tools, characterized by higher accuracy and larger computational resources (if compared with the presently used legacy codes, that have been developed decades ago), has made this issue even more compelling. In order to overcome to these limitations, the strategy for the exploration of the uncertain/parametric space needs to use at best the computational resources focusing the computational effort in those regions of the uncertain/parametric space that are “interesting” (e.g., risk-significant regions of the input space) with respect the targeted Figures Of Merit (FOM): for example, the failure of the system, subject of the analysis. These methodologies are named, in the RAVEN environment, adaptive sampling strategies. These methodologies infer system responses from surrogate models constructed from already existing samples (produced using high fidelity simulations) and suggest the most relevant location (coordinate in the input space) of the next sampling point to be explored in the uncertain/parametric domain. When using those methodologies, it is possible to understand features of the system response with a small number of carefully selected samples. This report focuses on the development and improvement of the limit surface search. The limit surface is an important concept in system reliability analysis. Without going into the details, which will be covered later in the report, the limit surface could be briefly described as an hyper-surface in the system uncertainty/parametric space separating the regions leading to a prescribed system outcome. For example, if the uncertainty/parametric space is the one generated by the reactor power level and the duration of the batteries, the system is a nuclear power plant and the system outcome discriminating variable is the clad failure in a station blackout scenario, then the limit surface separates the combinations of reactor power level and battery duration that lead to clad failure from the ones that do not.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems

An effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year 2015 (FY15). The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status on its progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, starting from a simulation strategy, a rigorous mathematical formulation has been achieved in which the economic optimization of a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System is presented as a constrained robust (under uncertainty) optimization problem. Some possible algorithms for the solution of the optimization problem are presented. A variation of the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation algorithm has been implemented in RAVEN and preliminary tests have been performed. The development of the software infrastructure to support the simulation of the whole NHES has also moved forward. The coupling between RAVEN and an implementation of the Modelica language (OpenModelica) has been implemented, migrated under several operating systems and tested using an adapted model of a desalination plant. In particular, this exercise was focused on testing the coupling of the different code systems; testing parallel, computationally expensive simulations on the INL cluster; and providing a proof of concept for the possibility of using surrogate models to represent the different NHES subsystems. Another important step was the porting of the RAVEN code under the Windows™ operating system. This accomplishment makes RAVEN compatible with the development environment that is being used for dynamic simulation of NHES components. A very simplified model of a NHES on the electric market has been built in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces even for stochastic constraints. This capability will be needed in the future to enforce the stochastic constraints on the electric demand coverage from the NHES. The development team gained experience with many of the tools that are currently envisioned for use in the economic analysis of NHES and completed several important steps. Given the complexity of the project, preference has been given to a structural approach in which several independent efforts have been used to build the cornerstone of the simulation framework. While this is good approach in establishing such a complex framework, it may delay reaching more complete results on the performance of analyzed system configurations. The integration of the previously reported exergy analysis approach was initially proposed as part of this milestone. However, in reality, the exergy-based apportioning of cost will take place only in a second stage of the implementation since it will be used to properly allocate cost among the different NHES subsystems. Therefore, exergy does not appear at the level of the main drivers in the analysis framework; the latter development of the base framework is the focus of this report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

OpenMC In Situ Source Convergence Detection

We designed and implemented an in situ version of particle source convergence for the OpenMC particle transport simulator. OpenMC is a Monte Carlo based-particle simulator for neutron criticality calculations. For the transport simulation to be accurate, source particles must converge on a spatial distribution. Typically, convergence is obtained by iterating the simulation by a user-settable, fixed number of steps, and it is assumed that convergence is achieved. We instead implement a method to detect convergence, using the stochastic oscillator for identifying convergence of source particles based on their accumulated Shannon Entropy. Using our in situ convergence detection, we are able to detect and begin tallying results for the full simulation once the proper source distribution has been confirmed. Our method ensures that the simulation is not started too early, by a user setting too optimistic parameters, or too late, by setting too conservative a parameter.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Whitepaper on Uncertainty Quantification for MPACT

The MPACT code provides the ability to perform high-fidelity deterministic calculations to obtain a wide variety of detailed results for very complex reactor core models. However, MPACT currently does not have the capability to propagate the effects of input data uncertainties to provide uncertainties in the calculated results. This white paper discusses a potential method for MPACT uncertainty quantification (UQ) based on stochastic sampling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

RAVEN Theory Manual

RAVEN is a software framework able to perform parametric and stochastic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed at providing dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the thermohydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose stochastic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable of communicating with any system code. In fact, the provided Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by input files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating system response and explore input space using various sampling schemes such as Monte Carlo, grid, or Latin hypercube. However, RAVEN strength lies in its system feature discovery capabilities such as: constructing limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, and using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN started in 2012 when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework arose. RAVEN’s principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concepts developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just to identify the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the proximity (or lack thereof) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. Most of the capabilities, implemented having RELAP-7 as a principal focus, are easily deployable to other system codes. For this reason, several side activates have been employed (e.g. RELAP5-3D, any MOOSE-based App, etc.) or are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with several different software. The aim of this document is to provide a set of commented examples that can help the user to become familiar with the RAVEN code usage.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

DoE Plasma Center for Momentum Transport and Flow Self-Organization in Plasmas: Non-linear Emergent Structure Formation in magnetized Plasmas and Rotating Magnetofluids

This report covers the UW-Madison activities that took place within a larger DoE Center Administered and directed by Professor George Tynan at the University of California, San Diego. The work at Wisconsin will also be covered in the final reporting for the entire center, which will be submitted by UCSD. There were two main activities, one experimental and one that was theoretical in nature, as part of the Center activities at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. First, the Center supported an experimentally focused postdoc (Chris Cooper) to carry out fundamental studies of momentum transport in rotating and weakly magnetized plasma. His experimental work was done on the Plasma Couette Experiment, a cylindrical plasma confinement device, with a plasma flow created through electromagnetically stirring plasma at the plasma edge facilitated by arrays of permanent magnets. Cooper's work involved developing optical techniques to measure the ion temperature and plasma flow through Doppler-shifted line radiation from the plasma argon ions. This included passive emission measurements and development of a novel ring summing Fabry-Perot spectroscopy system, and the active system involved using a diode laser to induce fluorescence. On the theoretical side, CMTFO supported a postdoc (Johannes Pueschel) to carry out a gyrokinetic extension of residual zonal flow theory to the case with magnetic fluctuations, showing that magnetic stochasticity disrupts zonal flows. The work included a successful comparison with gyrokinetic simulations. This work and its connection to the broader CMTFO will be covered more thoroughly in the final CMTFO report from Professor Tynan.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗