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At least 1,729 records · Page 96

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NASA NTRS2015

Stochastic-Strength-Based Damage Simulation Tool for Ceramic Matrix Composite

Reported here is a coupling of two NASA developed codes: CARES (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures) with the MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/ Generalized Method of Cells) composite material analysis code. The resulting code is called FEAMAC/CARES and is constructed as an Abaqus finite element analysis UMAT (user defined material). Here we describe the FEAMAC/CARES code and an example problem (taken from the open literature) of a laminated CMC in off-axis loading is shown. FEAMAC/CARES performs stochastic-strength-based damage simulation response of a CMC under multiaxial loading using elastic stiffness reduction of the failed elements.

ceramic matrix composites↗

DOE OSTI2017

Development of the IBSAL-SimMOpt Method for the Optimization of Quality in a Corn Stover Supply Chain

Variability on the physical characteristics of feedstock has a relevant effect on the reactor’s reliability and operating cost. Most of the models developed to optimize biomass supply chains have failed to quantify the effect of biomass quality and preprocessing operations required to meet biomass specifications on overall cost and performance. The Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) model estimates the harvesting, collection, transportation, and storage cost while considering the stochastic behavior of the field-to-biorefinery supply chain. This paper proposes an IBSAL-SimMOpt (Simulation-based Multi-Objective Optimization) method for optimizing the biomass quality and costs associated with the efforts needed to meet conversion technology specifications. The method is developed in two phases. For the first phase, a SimMOpt tool that interacts with the extended IBSAL is developed. For the second phase, the baseline IBSAL model is extended so that the cost for meeting and/or penalization for failing in meeting specifications are considered. The IBSAL-SimMOpt method is designed to optimize quality characteristics of biomass, cost related to activities intended to improve the quality of feedstock, and the penalization cost. A case study based on 1916 farms in Ontario, Canada is considered for testing the proposed method. Analysis of the results demonstrates that this method is able to find a high-quality set of non-dominated solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

The Bogolyubov-Born-Green-Kirkwood-Yvon hierarchy and Fokker-Planck equation for many-body dissipative randomly driven systems

By generalizing Bogolyubov’s reduced description method, we suggest a formalism to derive kinetic equations for many-body dissipative systems in external stochastic field. As a starting point, we use a stochastic Liouville equation obtained from Hamilton’s equations taking dissipation and stochastic perturbations into account. The Liouville equation is then averaged over realizations of the stochastic field by an extension of the Furutsu-Novikov formula to the case of a non-Gaussian field. As the result, a generalization of the classical Bogolyubov-Born-Green-Kirkwood-Yvon (BBGKY) hierarchy is derived. In order to get a kinetic equation for the single-particle distribution function, we use a regular cutoff procedure of the BBGKY hierarchy by assuming weak interaction between the particles and weak intensity of the field. Within this approximation, we get the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation for the system in a non-Gaussian stochastic field. Two particular cases are discussed by assuming either Gaussian statistics of external perturbation or homogeneity of the system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Vehicle to Grid Frequency Regulation Capacity Optimal Scheduling for Battery Swapping Station Using Deep Q-Network

Battery swapping stations (BSSs) are ideal candidates for fast frequency regulation services (FFRS) due to their large battery stock capacity. In addition, BSSs can precharge batteries for customers and the batteries that are not in charging can provide a stable regulation capacity to the market. However, uncertainties, such as ACE signals and the EV per-hour visit counts, introduce stochastic nonlinear dynamics into the operation of a BSS-based FFRS. Currently, there is no quantification method to ensure its optimal economical operation. To close this gap, in this article, we propose a novel deep Q-learning-based FFRS capacity dynamic scheduling strategy. This method can autonomously schedule the hourly regulation capacity in real time to maximize the BSSx0027;s revenue for providing FFRS. Case studies using real-world data verify the efficacy of the proposed work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2017

Guest Editorial High Performance Computing (HPC) Applications for a More Resilient and Efficient Power Grid

The power grid has been evolving over the last 120 years, but it is seeing more changes in this decade and next than it has seen over the past century. In particular, the widespread deployment of intermittent renewable generation, smart loads and devices, hierarchical and distributed control technologies, phasor measurement units, energy storage, and widespread usage of electric vehicles will require fundamental changes in methods and tools for the operation and planning of the power grid. The resulting new dynamic and stochastic behaviors will demand the inclusion of more complexity in modeling the power grid. Solving such complex models in the traditional computing environment will be a major challenge. Along with the increasing complexity of power system models, the increasing complexity of smart grid data further adds to the prevailing challenges. In this environment, the myriad of smart sensors and meters in the power grid increase by multiple orders of magnitude, so do the volume and speed of the data. The information infrastructure will need to drastically change to support the exchange of enormous amounts of data as smart grid applications will need the capability to collect, assimilate, analyze and process the data, to meet real-time grid functions. High performance computing (HPC) holds the promise to enhance these functions, but it is a great resource that has not been fully explored and adopted for the power grid domain.

Huang, Zhenyu Henry↗

DOE OSTI2015

Thermal Interface Conductance Between Aluminum and Silicon by Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The thermal interface conductance between Al and Si was simulated by a non-equilibrium molecular dynamics method. In the simulations, the coupling between electrons and phonons in Al are considered by using a stochastic force. The findings demonstrate the size dependence of the interface thermal conductance and the effect of electron–phonon coupling on the interface thermal conductance. To understand the mechanism of interface resistance, the vibration power spectra are calculated. We postulate that the atomic level disorder near the interface is an important aspect of interfacial phonon transport, which leads to a modification of the phonon states near the interface. There, the vibrational spectrum near the interface greatly differs from the bulk. This change in the vibrational spectrum affects the results predicted by AMM and DMM theories and indicates new physics is involved with phonon transport across interfaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Seismic Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty

Artificial intelligence has transformed the seismic community with deep learning models (DLMs) that are trained to complete specific tasks within workflows. However, there is still a lack of robust evaluation frameworks for evaluating and comparing DLMs. Here, we address this gap by designing an evaluation framework that jointly incorporates two crucial aspects: performance uncertainty and learning efficiency. To target these aspects, we meticulously construct the training, validation, and test splits using a clustering method tailored to seismic data and enact an expansive training design to segregate performance uncertainty arising from stochastic training processes and random data sampling. The framework’s ability to guard against misleading declarations of model superiority is demonstrated through the evaluation of PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2018), a popular seismic phase picking DLM, under three training approaches. Our framework helps practitioners choose the best model for their problem and set performance expectations by explicitly analyzing model performance with uncertainty at varying budgets of training data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

An Uncertainty Analysis of the Hydrogen Source Term for a Station Blackout Accident in Sequoyah Using MELCOR 1.8.5

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing the range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg ± 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Modern CACSD using the Robust-Control Toolbox

The Robust-Control Toolbox is a collection of 40 M-files which extend the capability of PC/PRO-MATLAB to do modern multivariable robust control system design. Included are robust analysis tools like singular values and structured singular values, robust synthesis tools like continuous/discrete H(exp 2)/H infinity synthesis and Linear Quadratic Gaussian Loop Transfer Recovery methods and a variety of robust model reduction tools such as Hankel approximation, balanced truncation and balanced stochastic truncation, etc. The capabilities of the toolbox are described and illustated with examples to show how easily they can be used in practice. Examples include structured singular value analysis, H infinity loop-shaping and large space structure model reduction.

Chiang, Richard Y.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Spectral Density of Laser Beam Scintillation in Wind Turbulence: Theory - Part 1

The temporal spectral density of the log-amplitude scintillation of a laser beam wave due to a spatially dependent vector-valued crosswind (deterministic as well as random) is evaluated. The path weighting functions for normalized spectral moments are derived, and offer a potential new technique for estimating the wind velocity profile. The Tatarskii-Klyatskin stochastic propagation equation for the Markov turbulence model is used with the solution approximated by the Rytov method. The Taylor 'frozen-in' hypothesis is assumed for the dependence of the refractive index on the wind velocity, and the Kolmogorov spectral density is used for the refractive index field.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Low Dimensional Tools for Flow-Structure Interaction Problems: Application to Micro Air Vehicles

A low dimensional tool for flow-structure interaction problems based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and modified Linear Stochastic Estimation (mLSE) has been proposed and was applied to a Micro Air Vehicle (MAV) wing. The method utilizes the dynamic strain measurements from the wing to estimate the POD expansion coefficients from which an estimation of the velocity in the wake can be obtained. For this experiment the MAV wing was set at five different angles of attack, from 0 deg to 20 deg. The tunnel velocities varied from 44 to 58 ft/sec with corresponding Reynolds numbers of 46,000 to 70,000. A stereo Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) system was used to measure the wake of the MAV wing simultaneously with the signals from the twelve dynamic strain gauges mounted on the wing. With 20 out of 2400 POD modes, a reasonable estimation of the flow flow was observed. By increasing the number of POD modes, a better estimation of the flow field will occur. Utilizing the simultaneously sampled strain gauges and flow field measurements in conjunction with mLSE, an estimation of the flow field with lower energy modes is reasonable. With these results, the methodology for estimating the wake flow field from just dynamic strain gauges is validated.

Schmit, Ryan F.↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes↗

DOE OSTI2014

Ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives accounting for multiple sources of material stochasticity

Accounting for the combined effect of multiple sources of stochasticity in material attributes, we develop an approach that computationally predicts the probability of ignition of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) under impact loading. The probabilistic nature of the specific ignition processes is assumed to arise from two sources of stochasticity. The first source involves random variations in material microstructural morphology; the second source involves random fluctuations in grain-binder interfacial bonding strength. The effect of the first source of stochasticity is analyzed with multiple sets of statistically similar microstructures and constant interfacial bonding strength. Subsequently, each of the microstructures in the multiple sets is assigned multiple instantiations of randomly varying grain-binder interfacial strengths to analyze the effect of the second source of stochasticity. Critical hotspot size-temperature states reaching the threshold for ignition are calculated through finite element simulations that explicitly account for microstructure and bulk and interfacial dissipation to quantify the time to criticality (t{sub c}) of individual samples, allowing the probability distribution of the time to criticality that results from each source of stochastic variation for a material to be analyzed. Two probability superposition models are considered to combine the effects of the multiple sources of stochasticity. The first is a parallel and series combination model, and the second is a nested probability function model. Results show that the nested Weibull distribution provides an accurate description of the combined ignition probability. The approach developed here represents a general framework for analyzing the stochasticity in the material behavior that arises out of multiple types of uncertainty associated with the structure, design, synthesis and processing of materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2014

Noise propagation in hybrid models of nonlinear systems: The Ginzburg–Landau equation

Every physical phenomenon can be described by multiple models with varying degrees of fidelity. The computational cost of higher fidelity models (e.g., molecular dynamics simulations) is invariably higher than that of their lower fidelity counterparts (e.g., a continuum model based on differential equations). While the former might not be suitable for large-scale simulations, the latter are not universally valid. Hybrid algorithms provide a compromise between the computational efficiency of a coarse-scale model and the representational accuracy of a fine-scale description. This is achieved by conducting a fine-scale computation in subdomains where it is absolutely required (e.g., due to a local breakdown of a continuum model) and coupling it with a coarse-scale computation in the rest of a computational domain. We analyze the effects of random fluctuations generated by the fine-scale component of a nonlinear hybrid on the hybrid's overall accuracy and stability. Two variants of the time-dependent Ginzburg–Landau equation (GLE) and their discrete representations provided by a nearest-neighbor Ising model serve as a computational testbed. Our analysis shows that coupling these descriptions in a one-dimensional simulation leads to erroneous results. Adding a random source term to the GLE provides accurate prediction of the mean behavior of the quantity of interest (magnetization). It also allows the two GLE variants to correctly capture the strength of the microscale fluctuations. Our work demonstrates the importance of fine-scale noise in hybrid simulations, and suggests the need for replacing an otherwise deterministic coarse-scale component of the hybrid with its stochastic counterpart.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

UQ Toolkit v 2.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterizaton and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. For the characterization of uncertainties, Bayesian inference tools are provided to infer uncertain model parameters, as well as Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, and also Karhunen-Loève expansions for representing stochastic processes. Uncertain parameters are treated as random variables and represented with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). The library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Safta, Cosmin↗

DOE OSTI2013

UQ Toolkit v 2.0

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2017

Computational Modeling of Fluctuations in Energy and Metabolic Pathways of Methanogenic Archaea

The methanogenic archaea, anaerobic microbes that convert CO2 and H2 and/or other small organic fermentation products into methane, play an unusually large role in the global carbon cycle. As they perform the final step in the anaerobic breakdown of biomass, methanogens are a biogenic source of an estimated one billion tons methane each year. Depending on the location, produced methane can be considered as either a greenhouse gas (agricultural byproduct), sequestered carbon storage (methane hydrate deposits), or a potential energy source (organic wastewater treatment). These microbes therefore represent an important target for biotechnology applications. Computational models of methanogens with predictive power are useful aids in the adaptation of methanogenic systems, but need to connect processes of wide-ranging time and length scales. In this project, we developed several computational methodologies for modeling the dynamic behavior of entire cells that connects stochastic reaction-diffusion dynamics of individual biochemical pathways with genome-scale modeling of metabolic networks. While each of these techniques were in the realm of well-defined computational methods, here we integrated them to develop several entirely new approaches to systems biology. The first scientific aim of the project was to model how noise in a biochemical pathway propagates into cellular phenotypes. Genetic circuits have been optimized by evolution to regulate molecular processes despite stochastic noise, but the effect of such noise on a cellular biochemical networks is currently unknown. An integrated stochastic/systems model of Escherichia coli species was created to analyze how noise in protein expression gives—and therefore noise in metabolic fluxes—gives rise to multiple cellular phenotype in isogenic population. After the initial work developing and validating methods that allow characterization of the heterogeneity in the model organism E. coli, the project shifted toward investigations of the methanogen Methanosarcina acetivorans. By integrating an unprecedented transcriptomics dataset for growth of the methanogen on many substrates with an in silico model, heterogeneity in metabolic pathway usage and methane production were examined. This lent insight into the physiological requirements of the organism under different environmental conditions and uncovered the unique regulatory role that mRNA half-life has in shaping metabolic flux distributions in this organism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗