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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Hybrid Variance Reduction on Advanced Architectures in the Shift Monte Carlo Code

Monte Carlo transport methods are the most accurate schemes for solving problems with complex energy and spatial features, but they come with a high computational cost. Although hybrid methods have enabled the use of Monte Carlo transport for a large class of problems, they still require significant computing resources. Modern multicore CPUs with large numbers of compute cores and graphical processing units (GPUs) provide opportunities to optimize the memory and run-time costs of hybrid Monte Carlo methods. This paper documents the development and analysis of three Monte Carlo transport algorithms that support hybrid transport using the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and forward-weighted CADIS methods in the Shift Monte Carlo code: history-based transport using static and dynamic threading on multicore CPUs and event-based transport enabling weight window tracking on GPUs. The results are shown for two challenging hybrid problems on the Frontier supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. The results show that all three methods yield good performance and enable solutions of difficult fixed-source transport problems in less than 2 min on 20 nodes of Frontier. Dynamic threading was observed to give up to 20% better scaling behavior than static threading. Moreover, the AMD Instinct 250X GPU was found to give 9 to 11 times greater throughput per graphics compute die than the best CPU performance. In conclusion, additional opportunities for optimization of hybrid transport on GPUs are discussed.

Denovo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative study of boron and neon injections on divertor heat fluxes using SOLPS-ITER simulations

Here, based on the EAST equilibrium, the effects of boron (B) and neon (Ne) injected at different locations on the target heat load, and the distributions of B and Ne particles were investigated by transport code SOLPS-ITER. It was found that the B injection was more sensitive to the injection location for heat flux control than impurity Ne. The high electron and ion densities near the inner target in the discharge with impurity B injected from over X-point (R 1 ) led to plasma detachment only at the inner target, and the localized B ions in the cases with injection from outer target location (R 2 ) and upstream location (R 3 ) led to far-SOL detachment at the outer target, but not at the inner target. In contrast, for Ne, the spatial distributions of Ne ions and electrons were found to be similar in all the cases at the three injection locations, and the detached plasma was achieved at the inner target and the electron temperature was reduced at the outer target. For locations R 2 and R 3 , impurity B showed a more pronounced effect on the heat flux at the far-SOL of the outer target. Further analysis indicated that Ne atoms came mainly from the recycling sources, whereas B atoms came mainly from injection, and that their distinct atomic distributions resulted from the difference in the ionization threshold and ionization mean free path. In addition, the radiation proportion of B in the divertor region was larger than that of Ne when the total radiation power was similar, which suggests that B has less influence on the core region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dataset_for_Conserved_macromolecular_architecture_of_Poplar_secondary_cell_walls_revealed_by_ssNMR_and_atomistic_modeling

This dataset contains solid-state 13C NMR data and atomistic molecular dynamics simulation files supporting the study of nanoscale secondary cell wall architecture across 13 genetically diverse Populus trichocarpa genotypes grown under uniform greenhouse conditions in 13C-enriched CO2 atmospheres (~89% 13C enrichment).The dataset contains two collections of solid-state 13C NMR data. (1) 200 MHz data (Bruker Avance III HD, 4 mm HX probe, 10 kHz MAS): raw Bruker TopSpin experiment folders and DMFIT-exported ascii spectra for selective and non-selective 1D 13C-13C spin diffusion experiments (3000 ms mixing) used to quantify inter-polymer spatial proximities, and short-mixing (1 ms) reference spectra used for polymeric abundance quantification by spectral deconvolution. (2) 600 MHz data (Bruker Avance III, 1.6 mm PhoenixNMR HXY probe, 30 kHz MAS): raw Bruker TopSpin experiment folders containing 2D CORD, 2D CP-INADEQUATE, and 13C/1H relaxation (T1, T1rho) experiments for all 13 genotypes, with processed Excel workbooks per experiment type. Molecular dynamics simulation code, coordinate files, and analysis scripts (NAMD/CHARMM/Python) for six atomistic cell wall models are included. Summarized ssNMR data are compiled into a single excel file and subjected to statistical analysis. Multivariate analysis code (PCA, Pearson correlation) and summary data are provided as excel worksheets and Jupyter notebooks (Python 3).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of dilatancy-controlled gas migration processes in saturated bentonite using a coupled multiphase flow and elastoplastic H 2 M model

Dilatancy-controlled gas flow in preferential pathways plays a key role in the safety analysis of radioactive waste repositories. This is particularly the case for bentonite, an often-preferred barrier material. Gas flow in preferential pathways is characterized by localization and spontaneous behavior, which is challenging to simulate in numerical models due to strong hydro-mechanical coupling. To analyze a laboratory experiment in the framework of the DECOVALEX-2023 project, this study introduced a new approach of combining continuous modelling methods with spatial material properties derived from material heterogeneities and experimental observations. The proposed model utilized hydro-mechanical spatial distributions, namely Young's modulus and gas entry pressure, and elastoplasticity combined with a linear swelling model. A conceptual strain-dependent permeability approach simulated dilatancy-controlled gas flow based on hydro-mechanical coupling. To test the effectiveness of the presented approach, a gas injection test in a compacted, saturated bentonite sample was simulated using the open-source code OpenGeoSys 5.8 and compared with experimental observations. The presented methodology is capable of simulating localized gas flow in preferential pathways. The spatial distributions of Young's modulus and gas entry pressure affect the swelling pressure, relative permeability and, in combination with the strain-dependent permeability model, also the intrinsic permeability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Behaviors of Intraseasonal Cloud Organization During DYNAMO/AMIE

This study investigates the organization of tropical convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) during the Dynamics of the MJO/Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment field campaign. While it is known that tropical clouds can organize and impact the large-scale environment, how this occurs, and its underlying mechanism are not fully understood. Application of several existing cloud organization indices showed inconsistent evolutions in the measured degree of organization with the MJO. The inconsistency arises from the varying definitions and assumptions of cloud organization behaviors that are applied to each index. While these indices often combine different properties of clouds, such as their number density, size, and distance between them, the analysis of these properties separately provided further understanding of how clouds organize with the MJO. Using the rainfall clusters identified from the S-Polka radar, we find that deep convective rainfall clusters begin to increase their number density before the arrival of MJO enhanced convective center, which is accompanied by increased proximity (shorter distance to each other) and followed by growth in their size. However, the nonrandomness in the spatial distribution of rainfall clusters maximizes as MJO convection decays. Deep convective clusters become the least randomly distributed as the clusters decay because of the suppression and decay of isolated deep convective cells, while clustered deep convective cells exist longer. This evolution of cloud organization is analogous to mesoscale convective systems, indicating that the duration and frequency of their organization stages are altered by the large-scale environmental perturbations associated with the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid retrieval of first-order spatiotemporal distortions for ultrashort laser pulses

High-intensity, ultrashort laser sources are a foundational pillar for High-Energy-Density (HED) physics, and as the repetition-rates of these systems increase, diagnostics must be developed to match their data collection speed. Characterization of any spatiotemporal distortions in the laser pulse is necessary in order to standardize results across facilities. Here, we have previously developed a laser diagnostic called Spatially and Temporally Resolved Intensity and Phase Evaluation Device: Full Information from a Single Hologram, or STRIPED FISH, to measure the full spatiotemporal laser electric field on a single shot. In order to provide rapid feedback, we here adapt the STRIPED FISH retrieval algorithm, which typically has computation times of up to 30 minutes due to the high spatial resolution of the device and its retrieval of the complete four-dimensional pulse field, to distill the key electric field quantities into a handful of scalars for rapid assessment of the pulse's first order distortions. Here, our new, rapid non-iterative retrieval algorithm is validated with simulated and experimental data, and it provides, within seconds, the same first-order information as given by the full analysis. This algorithm is suitable for on-shot assessment of spatiotemporal distortions and can be adapted to assess high repetition-rate laser quality in HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Arctic extreme precipitation changes from 1980 to 2022 in response to sea ice decline and enhanced atmospheric rivers

Arctic extreme precipitation (EP) broadly impacts permafrost degradation, glacier and snow cover changes, and ice sheet mass balance as well as ecosystems. However, investigation of EP spatiotemporal variations over the Arctic remains challenging, and their primary drivers are still poorly understood. Performance estimation of three state-of-the-art reanalysis products (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA-5), and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2)) against gauge-based precipitation observations reveals that MERRA-2 outperforms other reanalysis for Arctic EP changes. Based on MERRA-2 data, both annual EP amount and occurrence days averaged over the Arctic show statistically significant positive trends during 1980–2022 (3.37 ± 1.03 mm dec −1 and 0.42 ± 0.17 d dec −1 , respectively), with the most pronounced increase in the autumn. Spatial heterogeneity in annual and seasonal EP trends is found across the Arctic, with the largest positive annual trends of 30 mm dec −1 over the Bering Sea and the Denmark Strait. The significant EP increase is closely associated with intensified atmospheric rivers (ARs) and widespread decline in sea ice concentration (SIC). Specially, SIC and ARs are responsible for 12% and 50% of Arctic EP inter-annual variance, respectively, while ARs directly contribute 28.3% of the total annual EP amounts. These findings explain the mechanistic controls on Arctic EP, providing critical insights for projecting polar weather and climate extremes and their impacts on the Arctic environment.

atmospheric rivers↗
DOE OSTI2021

Polarimetric Radar Variables in Snowfall at Ka- and W-Band Frequency Bands: A Comparative Analysis

Dual-frequency millimeter-wavelength radar observations in snowfall are analyzed in order to evaluate differences in conventional polarimetric radar variables such as differential reflectivity (ZDR) specific differential phase shift (K DP ) and linear depolarization ratio (LDR) at traditional cloud radar frequencies at Ka and W bands (~35 and ~94 GHz, correspondingly). Low radar beam elevation (~5°) measurements were performed at Oliktok Point, Alaska, with a scanning fully polarimetric radar operating in the horizontal–vertical polarization basis. This radar has the same gate spacing and very close beam widths at both frequencies, which largely alleviates uncertainties associated with spatial and temporal data matching. It is shown that observed Ka- and W-band Z DR differences are, on average, less than about 0.5 dB and do not have a pronounced trend as a function of snowfall reflectivity. The observed Z DR differences agree well with modeling results obtained using integration over nonspherical ice particle size distributions. For higher signal-to-noise ratios, KDP data derived from differential phase measurements are approximately scaled as reciprocals of corresponding radar frequencies indicating that the influence of non-Rayleigh scattering effects on this variable is rather limited. This result is also in satisfactory agreement with data obtained by modeling using realistic particle size distributions. Observed Ka- and W-band LDR differences are strongly affected by the radar hardware system polarization “leak” and are generally less than 4 dB. Smaller differences are observed for higher depolarizations, where the polarization “leak” is less pronounced. Realistic assumptions about particle canting and the system polarization isolation lead to modeling results that satisfactorily agree with observational dual-frequency LDR data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic predictions and uncertainty estimation for radiological and nuclear effects modeling

Better characterization of meteorological uncertainty is needed to predict the effects of radiological and nuclear releases in the atmosphere. Multi-physics ensembles of atmospheric simulations can estimate uncertainty of physical processes, but they are often limited for computational reasons. Because weather uncertainty is important for emergency response applications, but the conventional way of running multi-physics ensembles is infeasible, we have developed new machine learning-based methods that quickly estimate and identify key sources of meteorological uncertainty. Machine learning accelerates the analysis of weather uncertainty by iteratively learning about model physics options that affect plume predictions. We have demonstrated the power of machine learning by creating a large multi-physics weather and dispersion ensemble dataset containing 1,200 simulations for two hypothetical radiological release scenarios. By training on less than 10% of the ensemble, we can quickly and accurately predict different outcomes, including the mass of radiological material deposited and spatial distribution and extent of contaminated areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Immersive Scientific Visualization of Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Characteristics Using Virtual Reality

Immersive visualization is changing how we explore, communicate, and understand complex scientific systems. In nuclear energy, an area in which data are often multidimensional, time-dependent, and difficult to interpret, virtual reality (VR) represents a powerful and intuitive informational medium. This work introduces a VR-based platform that visualizes the post-shutdown behavior and waste management lifecycle of molten-salt reactors (MSRs), a next-generation reactor type with unique operational and safety characteristics. The platform, built in Unity, is streamed on the Meta Quest 3 headset. It transforms high-fidelity simulation data into an interactive, immersive experience. Users can explore time-dependent reactor characteristics such as nuclide decay, which is a key factor for evaluating reactor waste strategies. The datasets were generated using the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment) framework and then processed through ParaView scripting for smooth integration into Unity. From a visualization standpoint, the platform emphasizes spatial storytelling, temporal exploration, and user-centered interaction. Users can navigate 3D reactor geometries, slice through volumetric data, and manipulate time to observe how physical phenomena evolve. Real-scale rendering and embodied interaction make the experience feel tangible. The interface is designed to be accessible, even to those without nuclear or simulation expertise. This lowers the barrier for stakeholders, policymakers, and the general public, while still supporting expert analysis and collaborative decision-making. This work shows how immersive visualization can function as both a scientific tool and a communication interface. By integrating simulation, processing, and visualization into a cohesive workflow, we offer a scalable framework for immersive scientific storytelling. The modular design supports future extensions to other reactor types and lifecycle stages, from shutdown to long-term storage, making the platform adaptable for both research and outreach.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXCLUSIVE NEUTRAL PION ELECTROPRODUCTION CROSS SECTION MEASUREMENTSWITHANEUTRALPARTICLE SPECTROMETER

Deep Virtual Compton Scattering (DVCS), the exclusive electron-proton scattering process ep ¿e'p'¿, provides access to generalized parton distributions (GPDs), which correlate information about the longitudinal momentum and transverse spatial structure of quarks inside the nucleon. Experiment E12-13-010 in Hall C at Jefferson Lab was designed to take high-precision measurements of the DVCS cross section over an extended kinematic range using the newly commissioned Neutral Particle Spectrometer (NPS). The NPS features a high-resolution electromagnetic calorimeter and a streaming data acquisition system optimized for operation at high luminosities. This thesis presents the detector and analysis work carried out to support the NPS DVCS program. In particular, it focuses on the hardware design, calibration, and performance of the calorimeter. A development of a waveform reconstruction analysis of the calorimeter signals enabled improved extraction of pulse amplitudes and times. The waveform analysis was also extended to operate in a multithreaded environment, substantially reducing processing time for large datasets. Analysis of exclusive neutral pion electroproduction events in the calorimeter gives a strong validation of the calorimeter’s performance and resolution. Together these developments establish a foundation for future analyses and extraction of the DVCS cross section and its use in constraining the GPDs.

Kerver, Mitchell [Old Dominion Univ., Norfolk, VA ↗
DOE OSTI2022

SCALE Modeling of the Fast Spectrum Heat Pipe Reactor

As part of the severe accident analysis collaboration with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), SCALE models were developed for a fast-spectrum heat pipe reactor. These models were based on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Design A concept, which is an alternative design to the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Special Purpose Reactor (SPR), also known as the Megapower reactor. The model contains 1,134 heat pipes, surrounded by hexagonal fuel elements, with a potassium working fluid; the fuel is UO 2 with 19.75 wt% 235 U enrichment. The model contains axial beryllium oxide (BeO) reflectors above and below the active fuel region along with a radial alumina reflector containing 12 B 4 C control drums. The center of the core is left unfueled to make room for two shutdown control rods, one annular and one solid. The active region of the core was discretized into twenty axial and five radial zones to analyze spatial variations in power and burnup. Infinite lattice unit cell sensitivity studies were used to perform verification between the SCALE and INL models. The eigenvalue results agreed well with the reported results to within roughly 50 percent mille (pcm). Full-core model verification was performed by analyzing system eigenvalues with differing configurations of control drum and shutdown rod positions. These full core results all had eigenvalue differences less than 310 pcm. Control drum and shutdown rod worths were also compared, with differences of 3.2% or less. Using the verified model, the isotopic inventory and decay heat, as well as temperature feedback coefficients, were calculated and provided to SNL as input to the MELCOR severe accident code to analyze potential releases from this class of reactor. The results of the MELCOR analysis are provided in a different report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relating Molecular Properties to the Persistence of Marine Dissolved Organic Matter with Liquid Chromatography–Ultrahigh-Resolution Mass Spectrometry

Marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) contains a complex mixture of small molecules that eludes rapid biological degradation. Spatial and temporal variations in the abundance of DOM reflect the existence of fractions that are removed from the ocean over different time scales, ranging from seconds to millennia. However, it remains unknown whether the intrinsic chemical properties of these organic components relate to their persistence. Here, we elucidate and compare the molecular compositions of distinct DOM fractions with different lability along a water column in the North Atlantic Gyre. Our analysis utilized ultrahigh-resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry at 21 T coupled to liquid chromatography and a novel data pipeline developed in CoreMS that generates molecular formula assignments and metrics of isomeric complexity. Clustering analysis binned 14 857 distinct molecular components into groups that correspond to the depth distribution of semilabile, semirefractory, and refractory fractions of DOM. The more labile fractions were concentrated near the ocean surface and contained more aliphatic, hydrophobic, and reduced molecules than the refractory fraction, which occurred uniformly throughout the water column. These findings suggest that processes that selectively remove hydrophobic compounds, such as aggregation and particle sorption, contribute to variable removal rates of marine DOM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal-Fluid and Thermal-Structural Response of the T-Tube Modular Divertor to Spatiotemporally Varying Heat Loads

Tungsten (W) is the leading candidate for divertor target plates because of its high melting point (>3000°C), thermal conductivity, and ultimate tensile stress. While W and its alloys are the only solid materials that can survive the high heat fluxes incident on the divertor, W’s low-ductility high ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of ~600°C and relatively low recrystallization temperature (RT) of ~1300°C pose structural (among other) challenges. The objective of this work is to estimate the thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance of the helium (He)-cooled T-tube divertor, which was originally developed by the Advanced Reactor Innovation and Evaluation Study (ARIES) using numerical simulations. Here, predictions of temperature distributions across the plasma-facing structural component and surface pressures from computational fluid dynamics simulations are used to determine stress distributions using commercial structural finite element modeling software over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The maximum allowable incident heat fluxes are determined based on the temperature limits imposed by the ITER elastic Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) and the maximum RT over a range of He mass flow rates and presented in the form of performance design charts. Our recent work found that thermal- structural criteria accounting for the low ductility of W in a finger-type modular divertor constrain the maximum incident heat fluxes to values well below the ITER specifications, and those based on considering only the RT demonstrate that integrated thermal-fluid and elastic structural performance evaluation are required for accurate assessment of divertor performance. This novel analysis of the T-tube considers how nonuniform and transient incident heat fluxes affect its thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance, as well as the effect of volumetric heating, which can be as great as 27% of the power incident on the divertor surface. The W tile of the T-tube, with its relatively large plasma-facing area of ~15 cm 2 , will likely experience significant spatial variations in incident heat flux. This work therefore assesses whether steady-state incident heat flux profiles with a peak of 10 MW/m 2 and maximum heat flux gradients of 200 MW/m 2 per m exceed the structural limits imposed by the ITER elastic SDC-IC and the maximum RT over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The effect of transient heat fluxes typical of plasma detachment and reattachment from the target plate due, for example, to gas injection are also evaluated

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impurity states and indirect exchange interaction in irradiated graphene

We theoretically investigate the impurity levels and exchange interaction between magnetic impurities in graphene driven by an off-resonant circularly polarized light field. Our analysis captures the non-perturbative effects resulting from scattering with magnetic impurities with a strong onsite potential. Under irradiation, a dynamical band gap opens up at the Dirac point, allowing impurity levels to exist inside the gap. These impurity levels are shown to give rise to a resonance feature in the exchange energy for impurities located either at the same or different sublattices. The exchange interaction also shows a wider spatial range of antiferromagnetic behavior due to irradiation. Furthermore, our work demonstrates that the exchange energy of magnetic impurities in graphene is extensively tunable by light irradiation in the presence of strong potential scattering.

2-dimensional systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meta-optic accelerators for object classifiers

Rapid advances in deep learning have led to paradigm shifts in a number of fields, from medical image analysis to autonomous systems. These advances, however, have resulted in digital neural networks with large computational requirements, resulting in high energy consumption and limitations in real-time decision-making when computation resources are limited. Here, we demonstrate a meta-optic–based neural network accelerator that can off-load computationally expensive convolution operations into high-speed and low-power optics. In this architecture, metasurfaces enable both spatial multiplexing and additional information channels, such as polarization, in object classification. End-to-end design is used to co-optimize the optical and digital systems, resulting in a robust classifier that achieves 93.1% accurate classification of handwriting digits and 93.8% accuracy in classifying both the digit and its polarization state. This approach could enable compact, high-speed, and low-power image and information processing systems for a wide range of applications in machine vision and artificial intelligence.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗