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DOE OSTI2023

Cataloging and Quantifying Value Streams from Non-Powered Dam Conversion

Hydropower is a key resource in the United States’ renewable energy transition; however, only 3% of existing dams in the United States currently generate electricity. While many non-powered dams (NPDs) have the potential for energy generation, hydropower addition to these dams has been slow. This is likely due, in part, to perceptions that hydropower development has prohibitively long payback periods, especially in comparison to other renewable energy resources that have shorter development processes. On the other hand, powering some NPDs may unlock new value streams in addition to the value obtained from selling generated energy. There is a need to understand and quantify a wider range of additional value streams to help increase the feasibility of such hydropower projects. In this work, we catalog indirect value streams and difficult-to-quantify direct value streams from NPD retrofitting, specifying which stakeholders are affected, and what kind of impacts (positive or negative) might occur. We identify appropriate quantification methodologies for these indirect value streams and describe the best practices around their implementation for NPD site-level analysis. We also demonstrate the quantification of a few indirect value streams for a selected NPD site, allowing for easier integration of these value streams into future studies by providing basis and background for quantifying these elements.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗

DOE OSTI2026

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Frameworks, Algorithms, and Scalable Technologies for Mathematics (FASTMath) SciDAC Institute

As computational models scale to larger computers, the rate at which they produce data has far outstripped the same computers ability to write that data and further the file systems ability to store that data. Almost all of the SciDAC applications, but especially those related to fusion solve very large scale PDEs whose scientific output his impacted by this problem. To gain access to dynamics in an exascale simulation that are not identifiable a priori and to make that dynamical data available to machine learning requires fundamental research in the area of in situ data data analytics. Here data analytics includes compression, visualization, uncertainty quantification, and machine learning. This in situ data analytics will enable on-the-fly spatial and temporal compression of solution dynamics, expose that space-time compressed field to machine learning algorithms that have been specialized to work with dynamically evolving data (existing machine learning algorithms treat data sets as static), greatly improving the opportunity for machine learning to provide feedback to the compression, all within an ongoing simulation, without the need to write data to files. The same concepts are also being applied to uncertainty quantification and multi-fidelity modeling which have similar needs for spatial and temporal compression of the ongoing exascale simulation to perform either without the typical, unacceptable writing of data to files.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aerosol Hygroscopic Growth, Mixing State, and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Activity during TRACER (Field Campaign Report)

Convective clouds play a critical role in the Earth’s climate system. Recent research has shown that a realistic representation of convective processes is critical to constraining climate sensitivity in global climate models. Theoretical and modeling studies showed that aerosols could have strong dynamic feedback to convection in warm and humid environments through enhancing ice-related processes and condensational growth. A few observation-based studies also suggested the influence of aerosols on convective cloud and precipitation properties. However, robust observational quantification of an aerosol effect on convective clouds isolated from other factors remains elusive. Understanding the impact of aerosol on convective clouds requires knowledge of the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectrum, which represents the number of particles that uptake water and form cloud droplets as a function of supersaturation. The water uptake by aerosol is also of critical importance for the direct interaction of aerosol with radiation (i.e., aerosol direct effect) due to light scattering and absorption by aerosol. While both droplet activation under supersaturated conditions (i.e., relative humidity RH > 100%) and the hygroscopic growth under sub-saturated conditions (i.e., RH < 100%) are strongly influenced by particle hygroscopicity, the thermodynamic regimes and measurement methods are quite different. Aerosol particles, especially organic particles, can exhibit higher hygroscopicity for droplet activation than that for hygroscopic growth. In the subsaturated regime, the hygroscopicity of organic particles can also vary strongly with RH. However, global climate models usually treat organic species in aerosols with a constant hygroscopicity, potentially introducing substantial uncertainties in the quantification of aerosol radiative effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Agricultural Ice Nuclei at Southern Great Plains Supplemental Sampling (AGINSGP-SUPP) Field Campaign Report

The Agricultural Ice Nuclei at Southern Great Plains Supplemental Sampling (AGINSGP-SUPP) field campaign took place from April 8 to April 28, 2022. It included sample collection and analysis of filter samples for ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations. By enabling quantification of INPs at warmer temperatures (i.e., T > 258 K), these samples complemented the real-time observations of INPs that were performed as part of the AGINSGP campaign during the same period. In addition to collecting ground-based samples, the campaign collected vertical samples of INPs aboard the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) tethered balloon system (TBS) as shown in Figure 1. These vertical samples complemented the vertical profiling of aerosol properties that was supported under a related Facilities Integrating Collaborations for User Science (FICUS) proposal. The overall aim of these three campaigns was to improve understanding of the sources and variability in observed INP concentrations at ARM’s SGP observatory. For example, warm-temperature INPs in this agricultural region are thought to originate in part from regional emissions of fertile, agricultural soils containing high organic content. Laboratory experiments have shown that soil particles with high organic content are more efficient INPs than inorganic soils (e.g., Tobo et al. 2014). Quantification of warm-temperature INPs under ambient conditions currently can only be achieved via offline methods such as the ARM ice-nucleation spectrometer (INS). Therefore, offline sampling for the INS was required to complement the real-time INP measurements conducted during the AGINSGP campaign.

, tethered balloon system↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving Marine Energy Production Through Commercialization of a Low Cost, Drag-Reducing Slippery Coating (CRADA 679 Abstract)

Marine energy capture systems offer great promise for providing clean energy, but they operate in a challenging and dynamic environment and must be optimized to the highest extent possible. Computational studies predict that drag reduction on marine energy and blue economy systems will result in meaningful improvements in energy efficiency. Based on extensive coating experience, PNNL is proposing to bring to market a new drag-reducing coating called Superhydrophobic Lubricant-Infused Drag-Efficient Coating – SLIDE-Coat. PNNL has a deep knowledge base regarding this class of slippery coatings, and we have a group of enthusiastic industry partners who have committed to partnering, conducting field testing, and providing well over 50% cost share. In addition to validating the technology, the team will create a commercialization roadmap to ensure the commercial success of the technology after the government-sponsored two-year program is complete. The main technical goal is to design, manufacture, and experimentally validate a new coating that can reduce hydrodynamic skin friction drag by 20%. The main commercialization goal is to develop a roadmap that identifies activities needed to complete SLIDE-Coat’s development after the conclusion of this project. Year 1 will focus on adaptation and modification of the existing SLIC coating system to optimize drag reduction and assessment and quantification of drag reduction on relevant materials in a laboratory setting. Year 2 will focus on optimizing and demonstrating drag reduction with preferred coatings. The manufacturability, ease of application, adhesion to relevant surfaces, and consistency will be assessed. Quantification of drag reduction on prototype materials in a relevant marine field setting will be executed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Robust Adaptive Digital Twin for Fusion Applications

The development of a digital twin system for fusion applications is essential for enhancing the prediction, analysis, and optimization of complex plasma processes. Machine learning (ML), particularly deep learning has demonstrated strong capabilities in modeling such highly nonlinear and intricate systems. However, two critical challenges limit the deployment of deep learning-based digital twins: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and data drift. UQ is vital for ensuring trustworthy predictions, especially in decision-support scenarios. Additionally, data-driven models are often sensitive to changes in the underlying data distribution, such as shot-to-shot variations in fusion experiments, which can lead to performance degradation over time. To address these challenges, we are developing an uncertainty-aware, adaptive digital twin framework. Our approach incorporates deep learning models enhanced with Gaussian Process approximations for predictive uncertainty estimation, coupled with an online learning mechanism that enables continuous model adaptation to new experimental data. This adaptive capability allows the data driven models to respond effectively to evolving plasma behaviors and equipment conditions. Specifically, to mitigate the effects of shot-to-shot drift, our system updates itself incrementally as new data becomes available, improving both robustness and fidelity. Our vision is to evolve this data driven model into a self-sustaining digital twin system that leverages UQ based feedback to continuously refine itself and potentially support real-time decision making. This presentation will cover a brief background on uncertainty quantification for ML, our ongoing effort on development of UQ capabilities for ML, our data science pipeline from data collection to model development and analysis and online learning framework for modeling coil deflection at DIII-D. I will also briefly touch upon opportunities and challenges in development of digital twin framework.

Sammuli, Brian [General Atomics]↗

DOE OSTI2022

SERDP PFAS 2.0 - An infrared spectral database for gas-phase quantitation of volatile per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS)

We report the construction of a database of vetted infrared spectra specifically targeting volatile fluorocarbon gases that may be emitted during thermal treatment of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) to assist understanding of treatment processes and improve quantification. To populate this database, protocols derived from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) infrared spectral database are used, curtailing the species selection for this data set. Each spectrum in the database is a weighted average derived from 10 or more individual measurements at different partial pressures (static method) or flow rates (dissemination method) to yield good fidelity of both strong and weak infrared signatures, with each composite spectrum ranging from = 6500 cm-1 to = 600 cm-1 with an apodized resolution of 0.112 cm-1. This resolution was chosen to fully resolve all spectral features, recognizing that atmospheric pressure broadening results in nearly all ro-vibrational lines having linewidths = 0.1 cm-1. As an example case, application of the database is demonstrated via identification and quantification of dominant 1H-perfluoroheptane and perfluorohept-1-ene fluorocarbon products resulting from thermal decomposition of perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) below 450 °C.

Infrared, Gas-phase spectra, FTIR, Spectral databa↗

DOE OSTI2025

PPI DataHub Project Data Package: S. elongatus PCC 7942 Limited Proteolysis and Thermal Proteome Profiling Structural Proteomics (JM-PB-DP3)

The purpose of this experiment was to investigate structural alterations in proteins involved in central carbon metabolism and photosynthetic electron transfer pathways in Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942. Sample data was obtained from S. elongatus cell lysates using three complementary mass spectrometry (MS) techniques using limited proteolysis (LiP-MS), thermal proteome profiling (TPP-MS), and redox enrichment (Redox-MS) in evaluating alterations solvent accessibility and structural stability caused by light perturbation at the molecular level. Experimentally processed sample data for LiP and TPP proteomic datasets were derived from the same cell culture stock, prepared simultaneously in parallel, and acquired by mass spectrometry. Processed datasets are openly accessible from the download button and contain secondary processed proteomic results files, computed outputs, and supporting metadata materials. Experimental samples processed for LiP-MS label-free quantification (LFQ) or TPP-MS tandem mass tag (TMT) 10-plex were acquired using a Q-Exactive HF-X mass spectrometer and processed/compiled using either MSGF+ (v2024.03.26) or PlexedPiper for proteome evaluation. Additional software supporting downstream proteomic analysis include FragPipe (v.4.0), MSFragger (v.22.1), and an adapted Microbial Isolate LiP Analysis Workflow (located at Zenodo). Processed proteomic data downloads include a sample naming key, normalized quantification results files, and processed protein annotated abundance files.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-time infrared spectroscopy coupled with blind source separation for nuclear waste process monitoring

On-line infrared absorbance spectroscopy enables rapid measurement of solution-phase molecular species. Many spectra-to-concentration models exist for spectral data, with some models able to handle overlapping spectral bands and nonlinearities. However, model accuracy is limited by the quality of training data used in model fitting. The process spectra of nuclear waste simulants at the Savannah River Site display incongruity between training and process spectra; the glycolate spectral signature in the training data does not match the glycolate signature in Savannah River National Laboratory process data. A novel blind source separation algorithm is proposed that preprocesses spectral data so that process spectra more closely resemble training spectra, thereby improving model quantification accuracy when unexpected sources of variation appear in process spectra. The novel blind source separation preprocessing algorithm is shown to improve nitrate quantification from an R 2 of 0.934 to 0.988 and from 0.267 to 0.978 in two instances analyzing nuclear waste simulants from the Slurry Receipt Adjustment Tank and Slurry Mix Evaporator cycle at the Savannah River Site.

Crouse, Steven H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrodynamic characterization of the redox chemistry of crown-encapsulated uranyl complexes

The redox properties of actinide-containing species strongly influence their reactivity, speciation, and interfacial behavior, but the experimental quantification of the electrochemical characteristics of molecular actinide complexes in nonaqueous media has not received the attention it deserves. Here, results from hydrodynamic methods and electrochemical simulations of U(VI)/U(V) redox are reported, including quantification of heterogeneous electron-transfer kinetics and estimation of chemical reversibility of U(VI)/U(V) interconversion at electrodes in acetonitrile-based electrolyte. The complexes investigated are recently reported U(VI) and U(V) complexes in which the uranyl ion (UO 2 n+ ) is encapsulated in a macrocyclic 18-crown-6-like moiety templated by a Pt(II) center. These complexes feature the most positive value U VI /U V reduction potential yet reported and are thus particularly relevant to study of facile U(V) generation from U(VI) precursors as well as uranium electroanalysis. Rotating disk electrode (RDE) studies have been used to quantify the diffusion coefficients of the U(VI) and U(V) complexes, and standard heterogeneous electron transfer rate constants ( k 0 ) for the redox have been determined using a conventional Koutecký-Levich analysis. Rotating ring-disk electrode (RRDE) studies have been used to directly interrogate the chemical reversibility of U(VI)-U(V) interconversion, confirming that reduction of the U(VI) complex at an Au disk is associated with formation of the U(V) analogue that can be readily re-oxidized at a Pt ring under hydrodynamic (rotating) conditions. Because measurements of the type reported here are generally associated with current flows that are larger than those found in corresponding quiescent (unstirred) conditions, our findings suggest that hydrodynamic methods could be advantageous for design of electroanalytical approaches to detection of actinide species and study of their redox properties.

actinides↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning-Enabled Quantitative Analysis of Optically Obscure Scratches on Nickel-Plated Additively Manufactured (AM) Samples

Additively manufactured metal components often have rough and uneven surfaces, necessitating post-processing and surface polishing. Hardness is a critical characteristic that affects overall component properties, including wear. This study employed K-means unsupervised machine learning to explore the relationship between the relative surface hardness and scratch width of electroless nickel plating on additively manufactured composite components. The Taguchi design of experiment (TDOE) L9 orthogonal array facilitated experimentation with various factors and levels. Initially, a digital light microscope was used for 3D surface mapping and scratch width quantification. However, the microscope struggled with the reflections from the shiny Ni-plating and scatter from small scratches. To overcome this, a scanning electron microscope (SEM) generated grayscale images and 3D height maps of the scratched Ni-plating, thus enabling the precise characterization of scratch widths. Optical identification of the scratch regions and quantification were accomplished using Python code with a K-means machine-learning clustering algorithm. The TDOE yielded distinct Ni-plating hardness levels for the nine samples, while an increased scratch force showed a non-linear impact on scratch widths. The enhanced surface quality resulting from Ni coatings will have significant implications in various industrial applications, and it will play a pivotal role in future metal and alloy surface engineering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Carrier-assisted One-pot Sample Preparation for Targeted Proteomics Analysis of Small Numbers of Human Cells

Protein analysis of small numbers of human cells is primarily achieved by targeted proteomics with antibody-based immunoassays, which have inherent limitations (e.g., low multiplex and unavailability of antibodies for new proteins). Mass spectrometry (MS)-based targeted proteomics has emerged as an alternative because it is antibody-free, high multiplex, and has high specificity and quantitation accuracy. Recent advances in MS instrumentation make MS-based targeted proteomics possible for multiplexed quantification of highly abundant proteins in single cells. However, there is a technical challenge for effective processing of single cells with minimal sample loss for MS analysis. To address this issue, we have recently developed a convenient protein carrier-assisted one-pot sample preparation coupled with liquid chromatography (LC) - selected reaction monitoring (SRM) termed cLC-SRM for targeted proteomics analysis of small numbers of human cells. This method capitalizes on using the combined excessive exogenous protein as a carrier and low-volume one-pot processing to greatly reduce surface adsorption losses as well as high-specificity LC-SRM to effectively address the increased dynamic concentration range due to the addition of exogeneous carrier protein. Its utility has been demonstrated by accurate quantification of most moderately abundant proteins in small numbers of cells (e.g., 10-100 cells) and highly abundant proteins in single cells. The easy-to-implement features and no need for specific devices make this method readily accessible to most proteomics laboratories. In this study, we have provided a detailed protocol for cLC-SRM analysis of small numbers of human cells including cell sorting, cell lysis and digestion, LC-SRM analysis, and data analysis. Further improvements in detection sensitivity and sample throughput are needed towards targeted single-cell proteomics analysis. We anticipate that cLC-SRM will be broadly applied to biomedical research and systems biology with the potential of facilitating precision medicine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Filamentary Dust Polarization and the Morphology of Neutral Hydrogen Structures

Filamentary structures in neutral hydrogen (H$\tiny{I}$) emission are well aligned with the interstellar magnetic field, so H$\tiny{I}$ emission morphology can be used to construct templates that strongly correlate with measurements of polarized thermal dust emission. We explore how the quantification of filament morphology affects this correlation. We introduce a new implementation of the Rolling Hough Transform (RHT) using spherical harmonic convolutions, which enables efficient quantification of filamentary structure on the sphere. We use this Spherical RHT algorithm along with a Hessian-based method to construct H$\tiny{I}$-based polarization templates. We discuss improvements to each algorithm relative to similar implementations in the literature and compare their outputs. By exploring the parameter space of filament morphologies with the Spherical RHT, we find that the most informative H$\tiny{I}$ structures for modeling the magnetic field structure are the thinnest resolved filaments. For this reason, we find a ~10% enhancement in the B-mode correlation with polarized dust emission with higher-resolution H$\tiny{I}$ observations. We demonstrate that certain interstellar morphologies can produce parity-violating signatures, i.e., nonzero TB and EB, even under the assumption that filaments are locally aligned with the magnetic field. Finally, we demonstrate that B modes from interstellar dust filaments are mostly affected by the topology of the filaments with respect to one another and their relative polarized intensities, whereas E modes are mostly sensitive to the shapes of individual filaments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the Twomey effect from satellite observations: issues and perspectives

Abstract. The Twomey effect describes the radiative forcing associated with a change in cloud albedo due to an increase in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is driven by the perturbation in cloud droplet number concentration (ΔNd, ant) in liquid-water clouds and is currently understood to exert a cooling effect on climate. The Twomey effect is the key driver in the effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions, but rapid adjustments also contribute. These adjustments are essentially the responses of cloud fraction and liquid water path to ΔNd, ant and thus scale approximately with it. While the fundamental physics of the influence of added aerosol particles on the droplet concentration (Nd) is well described by established theory at the particle scale (micrometres), how this relationship is expressed at the large-scale (hundreds of kilometres) perturbation, ΔNd, ant, remains uncertain. The discrepancy between process understanding at particle scale and insufficient quantification at the climate-relevant large scale is caused by co-variability of aerosol particles and updraught velocity and by droplet sink processes. These operate at scales on the order of tens of metres at which only localised observations are available and at which no approach yet exists to quantify the anthropogenic perturbation. Different atmospheric models suggest diverse magnitudes of the Twomey effect even when applying the same anthropogenic aerosol emission perturbation. Thus, observational data are needed to quantify and constrain the Twomey effect. At the global scale, this means satellite data. There are four key uncertainties in determining ΔNd, ant, namely the quantification of (i) the cloud-active aerosol – the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations at or above cloud base, (ii) Nd, (iii) the statistical approach for inferring the sensitivity of Nd to aerosol particles from the satellite data and (iv) uncertainty in the anthropogenic perturbation to CCN concentrations, which is not easily accessible from observational data. This review discusses deficiencies of current approaches for the different aspects of the problem and proposes several ways forward: in terms of CCN, retrievals of optical quantities such as aerosol optical depth suffer from a lack of vertical resolution, size and hygroscopicity information, non-direct relation to the concentration of aerosols, difficulty to quantify it within or below clouds, and the problem of insufficient sensitivity at low concentrations, in addition to retrieval errors. A future path forward can include utilising co-located polarimeter and lidar instruments, ideally including high-spectral-resolution lidar capability at two wavelengths to maximise vertically resolved size distribution information content. In terms of Nd, a key problem is the lack of operational retrievals of this quantity and the inaccuracy of the retrieval especially in broken-cloud regimes. As for the Nd-to-CCN sensitivity, key issues are the updraught distributions and the role of Nd sink processes, for which empirical assessments for specific cloud regimes are currently the best solutions. These considerations point to the conclusion that past studies using existing approaches have likely underestimated the true sensitivity and, thus, the radiative forcing due to the Twomey effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗