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DOE OSTI2016

DOE Energy Frontiers Research Center for Heterogeneous Functional Materials; the “HeteroFoaM Center”

Synopsis of five year accomplishments: Devices that convert and store energy are generally made from heterogeneous constituent materials that act and interact to selectively conduct, transport, and separate mass, heat, and charge. Controlling these actions and interactions enables the technical breakthroughs that have made fuel cells, batteries, and solid state membranes, for example, essential parts of our society. In the biological sense, these materials are ‘vascular’ rather than primitive ‘cellular’ materials, in which the arrangements and configurations of the constituents (including their void phases) play essential and definitive roles in their functional capabilities. In 2009 a group of investigators, with lifetime investments of effort in the understanding of heterogeneous materials, recognized that the design of such material systems is not an optimization problem as such. Local interactions of the constituents create “emergent” properties and responses that are not part of the formal set of constituent characteristics, in much the same sense that society and culture is created by the group interactions of the people involved. The design of emergent properties is an open question in all formal science, but for energy materials the lack of this foundation science relegates development tasks to Edisonian trial and error, with anecdotal success and frequent costly failures. That group defined, for the first time, multi-scale heterogeneous functional materials with functional disordered and void phase regions as “HeteroFoaM,” and formed the first multidisciplinary research team to define and codify the foundation science of that material class. The primary goal of the HeteroFoaM Center was, and is, to create and establish the multi-scale fundamental knowledge and related methodology required for the rational and systematic multiphysics design of heterogeneous functional materials and their interfaces and surfaces for applications in energy transformation and storage. The scope of the HeteroFoaM center was focused on the discovery and development of the control science of key phenomena across multiple length scales that create functionality in heterogeneous materials and their structured interfaces, boundaries, and surfaces for applications in energy technologies. The HeteroFoaM Center defined a critical path and established an essential foundation for progress in the field of heterogeneous functional materials. Perhaps the single most important element of progress was the establishment of the capability to design, characterize, and model heterogeneous functional materials at the conformal level, i.e., for a limited set of material systems, the HeteroFoaM team defined how to control the order / disorder at the atomic level, the surfaces, and the interfaces for selected constituent morphologies, and to use multiphysical models to explain the remarkable property variations resulting from that control science for several heterogeneous material systems. For those cases we defined “meso-structures” (at various scales) where the interactive physics of constituent phases acted to create emergent properties, e.g., strongly emergent mixed conductor behavior and ionic transport. The general approach used by this EFRC is shown in Fig. 1. The HeteroFoaM Center created the genre of Heterogeneous Functional Materials with functional surfaces and interfaces (including void phases) called HeteroFoaM as a science platform to enable rational analysis and design of functional material systems by focusing on the meso-interactions that drive emergent response. The team firmly established this approach with over 180 archival publications (see “Publications” section), 7 patent applications, and over 100 invited lectures in 15 countries on this topic, enabled by building a remarkably effective and uniquely coherent research team. Indeed, our team was our principal strength; this problem eluded solution earlier because such a team was not available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Compressive Sensing with Cross-Validation and Stop-Sampling for Sparse Polynomial Chaos Expansions

Here, compressive sensing is a powerful technique for recovering sparse solutions of underdetermined linear systems, which is often encountered in uncertainty quantification analysis of expensive and high-dimensional physical models. We perform numerical investigations employing several compressive sensing solvers that target the unconstrained LASSO formulation, with a focus on linear systems that arise in the construction of polynomial chaos expansions. With core solvers l1_ls, SpaRSA, CGIST, FPC_AS, and ADMM, we develop techniques to mitigate overfitting through an automated selection of regularization constant based on cross-validation, and a heuristic strategy to guide the stop-sampling decision. Practical recommendations on parameter settings for these techniques are provided and discussed. The overall method is applied to a series of numerical examples of increasing complexity, including large eddy simulations of supersonic turbulent jet-in-crossflow involving a 24-dimensional input. Through empirical phase-transition diagrams and convergence plots, we illustrate sparse recovery performance under structures induced by polynomial chaos, accuracy, and computational trade-offs between polynomial bases of different degrees, and practicability of conducting compressive sensing for a realistic, high-dimensional physical application. Across test cases studied in this paper, we find ADMM to have demonstrated empirical advantages through consistent lower errors and faster computational times.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2008

Errors in Sounding of the Atmosphere Using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) Kinetic Temperature Caused by Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium Model Parameters

The vast set of near global and continuous atmospheric measurements made by the SABER instrument since 2002, including daytime and nighttime kinetic temperature (T(sub k)) from 20 to 105 km, is available to the scientific community. The temperature is retrieved from SABER measurements of the atmospheric 15 micron CO2 limb emission. This emission separates from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) conditions in the rarefied mesosphere and thermosphere, making it necessary to consider the CO2 vibrational state non-LTE populations in the retrieval algorithm above 70 km. Those populations depend on kinetic parameters describing the rate at which energy exchange between atmospheric molecules take place, but some of these collisional rates are not well known. We consider current uncertainties in the rates of quenching of CO2 (v2 ) by N2 , O2 and O, and the CO2 (v2 ) vibrational-vibrational exchange to estimate their impact on SABER T(sub k) for different atmospheric conditions. The T(sub k) is more sensitive to the uncertainty in the latter two and their effects depend on altitude. The T(sub k) combined systematic error due to non-LTE kinetic parameters does not exceed +/- 1.5 K below 95 km and +/- 4-5 K at 100 km for most latitudes and seasons (except for polar summer) if the Tk profile does not have pronounced vertical structure. The error is +/- 3 K at 80 km, +/- 6 K at 84 km and +/- 18 K at 100 km under the less favourable polar summer conditions. For strong temperature inversion layers, the errors reach +/- 3 K at 82 km and +/- 8 K at 90 km. This particularly affects tide amplitude estimates, with errors of up to +/- 3 K.

Garcia-Comas, Maya↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Fragment Molecular Orbital Method Based on Long-Range Corrected Density-Functional Tight-Binding

The presently available linear scaling approaches to density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) based on the fragment molecular orbital (FMO) method are severely impacted by the problem of artificial charge transfer due to the self-interaction error (SIE), which hampers the simulation of zwitterionic systems such as biopolymers or ionic liquids. Here we report an extension of FMO-DFTB where we included a long-range corrected (LC) functional designed to mitigate the DFTB SIE, called the FMO-LC-DFTB method, resulting in a robust method which succeeds in simulating zwitterionic systems. Both energy and analytic gradient are developed for the gas phase and the polarizable continuum model of solvation. The scaling of FMO-LC-DFTB with system size N is shown to be almost linear, O( N 1.13–1.28 ), and its numerical accuracy is established for a variety of representative systems including neutral and charged polypeptides. It is shown that pair interaction energies between fragments for two mini-proteins are in excellent agreement with results from long-range corrected density functional theory. Here the new method was employed in long time scale (1 ns) molecular dynamics simulations of the tryptophan cage protein (PDB: 1L2Y) in the gas phase for four different protonation states and in stochastic global minimum structure searches for 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium nitrate ionic liquid clusters containing up to 2300 atoms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparing GGA, GGA+ U , and meta-GGA functionals for redox-dependent binding at open metal sites in metal–organic frameworks

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) with open metal sites have been widely investigated for the selective adsorption of small molecules via redox mechanisms where charge transfer can take place between the binding site and the adsorbate of interest. Quantum-chemical screening methods based on density functional theory have emerged as a promising route to accelerate the discovery of MOFs with enhanced binding affinities toward various adsorbates. However, the success of this approach is linked to the accuracy of the underlying density functional approximations (DFAs). In this work, we compare commonly used generalized gradient approximation (GGA), GGA+U, and meta-GGA exchange-correlation functionals in modeling redox-dependent binding at open metal sites in MOFs using O 2 and N 2 as representative small molecules. We find that the self-interaction error inherent to the widely used Perdew, Burke, and Ernzerhof (PBE) GGA predicts metal sites that are artificially redox-active, as evidenced by their strong binding affinities, short metal–adsorbate bond distances, and large degree of charge transfer. The incorporation of metal-specific, empirical Hubbard U corrections based on the transition metal oxide literature systematically reduces the redox activity of the open metal sites, often improving agreement with experiment. Additionally, the binding behavior shifts from strong chemisorption to weaker physisorption as a function of U. The M06-L meta-GGA typically predicts binding energies between those of PBE-D3(BJ) and PBE-D3(BJ)+U when using empirically derived U values from the transition metal oxide literature. Despite the strong sensitivity of the binding affinities toward a given DFA, the GGA, GGA+U, and meta-GGA approaches often yield the same qualitative trends and structure–property relationships.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2001

EFQPSK Versus CERN: A Comparative Study

This report presents a comparative study on Enhanced Feher's Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (EFQPSK) and Constrained Envelope Root Nyquist (CERN) techniques. These two techniques have been developed in recent times to provide high spectral and power efficiencies under nonlinear amplifier environment. The purpose of this study is to gain insights into these techniques and to help system planners and designers with an appropriate set of guidelines for using these techniques. The comparative study presented in this report relies on effective simulation models and procedures. Therefore, a significant part of this report is devoted to understanding the mathematical and simulation models of the techniques and their set-up procedures. In particular, mathematical models of EFQPSK and CERN, effects of the sampling rate in discrete time signal representation, and modeling of nonlinear amplifiers and predistorters have been considered in detail. The results of this study show that both EFQPSK and CERN signals provide spectrally efficient communications compared to filtered conventional linear modulation techniques when a nonlinear power amplifier is used. However, there are important differences. The spectral efficiency of CERN signals, with a small amount of input backoff, is significantly better than that of EFQPSK signals if the nonlinear amplifier is an ideal clipper. However, to achieve such spectral efficiencies with a practical nonlinear amplifier, CERN processing requires a predistorter which effectively translates the amplifier's characteristics close to those of an ideal clipper. Thus, the spectral performance of CERN signals strongly depends on the predistorter. EFQPSK signals, on the other hand, do not need such predistorters since their spectra are almost unaffected by the nonlinear amplifier, Ibis report discusses several receiver structures for EFQPSK signals. It is observed that optimal receiver structures can be realized for both coded and uncoded EFQPSK signals with not too much increase in computational complexity. When a nonlinear amplifier is used, the bit error rate (BER) performance of the CERN signals with a matched filter receiver is found to be more than one decibel (dB) worse compared to the bit error performance of EFQPSK signals. Although channel coding is found to provide BER performance improvement for both EFQPSK and CERN signals, the performance of EFQPSK signals remains better than that of CERN. Optimal receiver structures for CERN signals with nonlinear equalization is left as a possible future work. Based on the numerical results, it is concluded that, in nonlinear channels, CERN processing leads towards better bandwidth efficiency with a compromise in power efficiency. Hence for bandwidth efficient communications needs, CERN is a good solution provided effective adaptive predistorters can be realized. On the other hand, EFQPSK signals provide a good power efficient solution with a compromise in band width efficiency.

Borah, Deva K.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Stray Light Artifacts in Imagery from the Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor

The Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) has been collecting imagery of the Earth since its launch aboard Landsat 8 in early 2013. In many respects, TIRS has been exceeding its performance requirements on orbit, particularly in terms of noise and stability. However, several artifacts have been observed in the TIRS data which include banding and absolute calibration discrepancies that violate requirements in some scenes. Banding is undesired structure that appears within and between the focal plane array assemblies. In addition, in situ measurements have shown an error in the TIRS absolute radiometric calibration that appears to vary with season and location within the image. The source of these artifacts has been determined to be out-of-field radiance that scatters onto the detectors thereby adding a non-uniform signal across the field-of-view. The magnitude of this extra signal can be approximately 8% or higher (band 11) and is generally twice as large in band 11 as it is in band 10. A series of lunar scans were obtained to gather information on the source of this out-of-field radiance. Analyses of these scans have produced a preliminary map of stray light, or ghost, source locations in the TIRS out-of-field area. This dataset has been used to produce a synthetic TIRS scene that closely reproduces the banding effects seen in actual TIRS imagery. Now that the cause of the banding has been determined, a stray light optics model is in development that will pin-point the cause of the stray light source. Several methods are also being explored to correct for the banding and the absolute calibration error in TIRS imagery

Stray light↗

DOE OSTI2022

Red Dragon: a redshift-evolving Gaussian mixture model for galaxies

ABSTRACT Precision-era optical cluster cosmology calls for a precise definition of the red sequence (RS), consistent across redshift. To this end, we present the Red Dragon algorithm: an error-corrected multivariate Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Simultaneous use of multiple colours and smooth evolution of GMM parameters result in a continuous RS and blue cloud (BC) characterization across redshift, avoiding the discontinuities of red fraction inherent in swapping RS selection colours. Based on a mid-redshift spectroscopic sample of SDSS galaxies, an RS defined by Red Dragon selects quiescent galaxies (low specific star formation rate) with a balanced accuracy of over $90{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. This approach to galaxy population assignment gives more natural separations between RS and BC galaxies than hard cuts in colour–magnitude or colour–colour spaces. The Red Dragon algorithm is publicly available at bitbucket.org/wkblack/red-dragon-gamma/.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Error field correction strategies in preparation to MAST-U operation

In magnetic fusion devices, unwanted non-axisymmetric magnetic field perturbations, known as error fields (EF), can have detrimental effects on plasma stability and confinement. Such EFs may originate from several sources, such as axi-symmetric coil misalignments, coil feeds, 3D structures in the wall surrounding the plasma, presence of ferromagnetic materials near the plasma surface, blanket materials in future devices. To minimize their impact on plasma performance and on the available operational space, it is important to identify the EF sources and develop EF control strategies. MAST Upgrade (MAST-U) is a spherical tokamak which will operate in the near future after a series of enhancements from the previous MAST experiment. To deliver a machine with EF amplitude low enough to allow a high quality experimental programme, systematic analysis of the intrinsic EF sources has been carried out for poloidal eld (P) and divertor (D) coils. To deliver a machine with EF amplitude low enough to allow a high quality experimental programme, systematic analysis of the intrinsic EF sources has been carried out for poloidal field (P) and divertor (D) coils, whose magnetic eld measurements were available when writing this paper. Such measurements reveal that P and D coils are 3D deformed and thus are responsible for intrinsic EFs, with mainly n=1 and n=2 toroidal mode numbers. In preparation to MAST-U operation, both passive and active EF control strategies have been adopted for n=1 and n=2 EFs compensation. Passive EF control consisted of installing finely each D and P coil within MAST-U device so as to minimize the intrinsic n=1 EF amplitude. The optimal coil alignment has been determined based on magnetic eld measurements and the corresponding 3D electro-magnetic modelling, and envisaged coil shift and tilt of 3.2 mm and 0.7 mrad, respectively, in the case of P coil named P4. Conversely, active control will be use during MAST-U operation to reduce the n=2 EF which is associated mainly with P4 and P5, as well. Since these coils have been re-used from the MAST device, studies attempting n=2 EF control, based on MAST plasmas, have been modelled utilizing the MARS-F code to interpret experimental results in MAST and to give hints for future n=2 EF control studies in MAST-U. Here, a model-based control set for n=2 EF control has been identified which would allow for the minimization of rotation braking, of the resonant magnetic field at the q=2 and of the plasma displacement in MAST-U, simultaneously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Computational Approach for Model Update of an LS-DYNA Energy Absorbing Cell

NASA and its contractors are working on structural concepts for absorbing impact energy of aerospace vehicles. Recently, concepts in the form of multi-cell honeycomb-like structures designed to crush under load have been investigated for both space and aeronautics applications. Efforts to understand these concepts are progressing from tests of individual cells to tests of systems with hundreds of cells. Because of fabrication irregularities, geometry irregularities, and material properties uncertainties, the problem of reconciling analytical models, in particular LS-DYNA models, with experimental data is a challenge. A first look at the correlation results between single cell load/deflection data with LS-DYNA predictions showed problems which prompted additional work in this area. This paper describes a computational approach that uses analysis of variance, deterministic sampling techniques, response surface modeling, and genetic optimization to reconcile test with analysis results. Analysis of variance provides a screening technique for selection of critical parameters used when reconciling test with analysis. In this study, complete ignorance of the parameter distribution is assumed and, therefore, the value of any parameter within the range that is computed using the optimization procedure is considered to be equally likely. Mean values from tests are matched against LS-DYNA solutions by minimizing the square error using a genetic optimization. The paper presents the computational methodology along with results obtained using this approach.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Type Ia Supernova Growth-rate Measurement with LSST Simulations: Intrinsic Scatter Systematics

Measurement of the growth rate of structures (fσ 8 ) with Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) will improve our understanding of the nature of dark energy and enable tests of general relativity. In this paper, we generate simulations of the 10 yr SN Ia data set of the Rubin-LSST survey, including a correlated velocity field from an N-body simulation and realistic models of SNe Ia properties and their correlations with host-galaxy properties. We find, similar to SN Ia analyses that constrain the dark energy equation-of-state parameters w 0 w a , that constraints on fσ 8 can be biased depending on the intrinsic scatter of SNe Ia. While for the majority of intrinsic scatter models we recover fσ 8 with a precision of ∼13%–14%, for the most realistic dust-based model, we find that the presence of non-Gaussianities in Hubble diagram residuals leads to a bias on fσ 8 of ∼ −20%. When trying to correct for the dust-based intrinsic scatter, we find that the propagation of the uncertainty on the model parameters does not significantly increase the error on fσ 8 . We also find that while the main component of the error budget of fσ 8 is the statistical uncertainty (>75% of the total error budget), the systematic error budget is dominated by the uncertainty on the damping parameter, σ u , that gives an empirical description of the effect of redshift space distortions on the velocity power spectrum. Our results motivate a search for new methods to correct for the non-Gaussian distribution of the Hubble diagram residuals, as well as an improved modeling of the damping parameter.

Carreres, Bastien [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United ↗

NASA NTRS1986

Near-field Testing of the 15-meter Model of the Hoop Column Antenna

The technical results from near-field testing of the 15-meter model of the hoop column antenna at the Martin Marietta Denver Aerospace facility are documented. The antenna consists of a deployable central column and a 15 meter hoop, stiffened by cables into a structure with a high tolerance repeatable surface and offset feed location. The surface has been configured to have four offset parabolic apertures, each about 6 meters in diameter, and is made of gold plated molybdenum wire mesh. Pattern measurements were made with feed systems radiating at frequencies of 7.73, 11.60, 2.27, 2.225, and 4.26 (all in GHz). This report (Volume 1) covers the testing from an overall viewpoint and contains information of generalized interest for testing large antennas. This volume discusses the deployment of the antenna in the Martin Facility and the measurements to determine mechanical stability and trueness of the reflector surface, gives the test program outline, and gives a synopsis of antenna electromagnetic performance. Three techniques for measuring surface mechanical tolerances were used (theodolites, metric cameras, and near-field phase), but only the near-field phase approach is included. The report also includes an error analysis. A detailed listing of the antenna patterns are provided for the 2.225 Ghz feed in Volume 3 of this report, and for all other feeds in Volume 2.

Hoover, J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

OrbNet Denali: A machine learning potential for biological and organic chemistry with semi-empirical cost and DFT accuracy

We present OrbNet Denali, a machine learning model for an electronic structure that is designed as a drop-in replacement for groundstate density functional theory (DFT) energy calculations. The model is a message-passing graph neural network that uses symmetryadapted atomic orbital features from a low-cost quantum calculation to predict the energy of a molecule. OrbNet Denali is trained on a vast dataset of 2.3 × 10 6 DFT calculations on molecules and geometries. This dataset covers the most common elements in biochemistry and organic chemistry (H, Li, B, C, N, O, F, Na, Mg, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Br, and I) and charged molecules. OrbNet Denali is demonstrated on several well-established benchmark datasets, and we find that it provides accuracy that is on par with modern DFT methods while offering a speedup of up to three orders of magnitude. For the GMTKN55 benchmark set, OrbNet Denali achieves WTMAD-1 and WTMAD-2 scores of 7.19 and 9.84, on par with modern DFT functionals. For several GMTKN55 subsets, which contain chemical problems that are not present in the training set, OrbNet Denali produces a mean absolute error comparable to those of DFT methods. For the Hutchison conformer benchmark set, OrbNet Denali has a median correlation coefficient of R 2 = 0.90 compared to the reference DLPNO-CCSD(T) calculation and R 2 = 0.97 compared to the method used to generate the training data (ωB97X-D3/def2- TZVP), exceeding the performance of any other method with a similar cost. Similarly, the model reaches chemical accuracy for noncovalent interactions in the S66x10 dataset. For torsional profiles, OrbNet Denali reproduces the torsion profiles of ωB97X-D3/def2-TZVP with an average mean absolute error of 0.12 kcal/mol for the potential energy surfaces of the diverse fragments in the TorsionNet500 dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison Study of Upper Subcritical Limits Derived Using Sensitivity/Uncertainty Tools Case Studies of Benchmarks and Applications

Neutron transport methods used to establish subcriticality require validation by comparison to critical experiments considered to be benchmarks. Whisper is a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis tool developed to assist with the task of validation in nuclear criticality safety. Details on the Whisper methodology can be found in References 1-3 on the MCNP ® reference collection website at https://mcnp.lanl.gov. Whisper-1.0 was originally developed in 2014 and used to assist with nuclear criticality safety validation at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Whisper was upgraded in 2016 to Whisper-1.1 and prepared for release with MCNP6.2. Whisper contains a library of over 1100 critical experiment benchmarks and quantifies neutronic similarity of an application to benchmarks in the library. Using highest similarity benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin (CM) encompassing of the worst-case bias and bias uncertainty at a 99% confidence level for each application. In addition, portions of the margin of subcriticality (MOS) for nuclear data uncertainty and potential code errors are computed. The baseline upper subcritical limit (USL) computed by Whisper is comprised of the CM, MOS nuclear data , and MOS code errors . The Whisper baseline USL is absent a portion of the MOS due to the area of application, which is applied based upon judgment by the criticality safety analyst. An objective of this paper is to present the baseline USL, CM and portions of the MOS as computed by Whisper for comparison with similar sensitivity/uncertainty tools, such as those used by IRSN and ORNL. The initial comparison involves four critical experiment benchmarks: HEU-MET-FAST-013-001, HEU-SOLTHERM-001-008, PU-MET-FAST-022-001, AND PU-SOL-THERM-001-001, which have been: 1. modeled independently by LANL, IRSN, and ORNL based upon information provided in the ICSBEP Handbook, 2. are common in S/U libraries for LANL, IRSN, and ORNL, 3. span a range of energy spectrum and fissile material, and 4. taken as applications for the purposes of this study and therefore excluded from use as a benchmark for calculating the upper subcritical limit. Results presented in this paper have been computed using covariance data for all isotopes in ENDF/BVII.0 using a 44-group energy structure. Benchmarks in the Whisper library were run in MCNP6.2 using 100,000 neutrons per cycle, skipping 100 cycles for 500 active cycles. Reference 10 also compares the results for baseline USL with an order of magnitude greater neutrons, using the same total number of cycles with 1,000,000 neutrons per cycle. Subsequent to the results presented in Reference 10 changes were made to the benchmark library, as discussed in Reference 11. Newer results using the revised benchmark library are presented herein.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Scale Computational Platform for Predictive Modeling of Corrosion in Al-Steel Joints (Final Report)

The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1994

Dust extinction and molecular gas in the dark cloud IC 5146

In this paper we describe a powerful method for mapping the distribution of dust through a molecular cloud using data obtained in large-scale, multiwavelength, infrared imaging surveys. This method combines direct measurements of near-infrared color excess and certain techniques of star counting to derive mean extinctions and map the dust column density distribution through a cloud at higher angular resolutions and greater optical depths than those achieved previously by optical star counting. We report the initial results of the application of this method to a dark cloud complex near the cluster IC 5146, where we have performed coordinated, near-infrared, JHK imaging and (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS millimeter-wave, molecular-line surveys of a large portion of the complex. More than 4000 stars were detected in our JHK survey of the cloud. Of these, all but about a dozen appear to be field stars not associated with the cloud. Star count maps at J band show a striking and detailed anticorrelation between the surface density of J-band sources and CO and CS molecular-line emission. We used the (H-K) colors and positions of nearly 1300 sources to directly measure and map the extinction and thus trace the dust column density through the cloud at an effective angular resolution of 1 min .5. We report an interesting correlation between the measured dispersion in our extinction determinations and the extinction. Modeling this relation indicates that effects of small-scale cloud structure dominate the uncertainties in our measurements. Moreover, we demonstrate that such observations can be used to place constraints on the nature of the spatial distribution of extinction on scales smaller than our resolution. In particular, we show that models in which the dust is distributed uniformly or in discrete high-extinction clumps on scales smaller than (1 min .5) are inconsistent with the observations. We have derived extinctions at the same positions and at the same angular resolution (1 min .7) as our molecular-line observations. This enabled a direct comparison of (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS integrated intensities and column densities with A(sub V) for more than 500 positions in the cloud, corresponding to a range in A(sub V) between 0 to 32 mag of extinction. We found the integrated intensities of (13)CO, C(18)O, and CS to be roughly linearly correlated with extinction over different ranges of extinction. However, for all three molecules we find the scatter in the observed relations to be larger than can be accounted for by instrumental error, suggesting that there are large intrinsic variations in the abundances or excitation of the molecules through the cloud. Mean abundances for all the molecules relative to hydrogen were directly derived from the data. The ratio of (13)CO to C(18)O abundances was found to be significantly higher than the terrestrial ratio in regions where extinction is less than 10 mag. In the same region, the dispersion in the abundance ratio is also found to be very large, suggesting that the abundances of one or both molecules are very unstable even at relatively large cloud optical depths. Beyond 10 mag of extinction the abundances of both species appear very stable with their ratio close to the terrestrial value.

Lada, Charles J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of machine learning models to improve streamflow prediction under changing climate and environmental conditions

Machine learning (ML) models, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in particular, have demonstrated remarkable performance in streamflow prediction and are increasingly being used by the hydrological research community. However, most of these applications do not include uncertainty quantification (UQ). ML models are data driven and can suffer from large extrapolation errors when applied to changing climate/environmental conditions. UQ is required to quantify the influence of data noises on model predictions and avoid overconfident projections in extrapolation. In this work, we integrate a novel UQ method, called PI3NN, with LSTM networks for streamflow prediction. PI3NN calculates Prediction Intervals by training 3 Neural Networks. It can precisely quantify the predictive uncertainty caused by the data noise and identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data in a non-stationary condition to avoid overconfident predictions. We apply the PI3NN-LSTM method in the snow-dominant East River Watershed in the western US and in the rain-driven Walker Branch Watershed in the southeastern US. Results indicate that for the prediction data which have similar features as the training data, PI3NN precisely quantifies the predictive uncertainty with the desired confidence level; and for the OOD data where the LSTM network fails to make accurate predictions, PI3NN produces a reasonably large uncertainty indicating that the results are not trustworthy and should avoid overconfidence. PI3NN is computationally efficient, robust in performance, and generalizable to various network structures and data with no distributional assumptions. It can be broadly applied in ML-based hydrological simulations for credible prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Linear Combination of Atomic Dipoles to Calculate the Bond and Molecular Dipole Moments of Molecules and Molecular Liquids

Here we report a linear combination of atomic dipole (LCAD) method for calculating the bond dipole moments of molecules. We show that the LCAD method reproduces the known molecular dipole moments of small to large molecules with a small error with respect to experimental and benchmark ab initio calculations, and molecular dipole distributions of bulk water that agree with maximally localized Wannier functions. The bond dipole moments derived from LCAD are also chemically interpretable in terms of the trend in bond ionicity in going from neutral to charged molecules. Moreover, the LCAD method accurately captures the influence of electric fields, supported by the correct trend in the change of the dipole moment under a uniform external electric field. The better grounding of bond dipole calculations indicates that it should also serve as a useful approach to bond dipole-field models used in catalysis or to reconstruct the small dipole of a H-terminated graphene flake.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗