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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Evaluation of Gray-box and Machine Learning Models of a Thermal Energy Storage System with Active Insulation

An interior partition wall integrated with active thermal storage and a dynamic insulation system was built and then installed in an office building in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, TN. This smart wall, termed the Empower Wall, was equipped with embedded pipes in the building envelope core component and an additional pipe network enclosing rigid insulation to switch on and off the active insulation dynamically. The performance of the wall's contribution to cooling load reduction under different parameters has been investigated in previous publications. Aiming to be deployed into model predictive control and other optimization methods, simplified and reliable models for the developed wall and the room accommodating it are required. They are needed to characterize the properties and thermal response of both Empower Wall and building envelope, which form an essential component for accurate indoor temperature or cooling/heating demand prediction. In this study, simplified gray-box and regression models as well as machine learning model were developed and the performance of them were compared and analyzed.

Cui, Borui↗
DOE OSTI2026

Custom-trained Machine-learning Interatomic Potentials: ZnCl2 Aqueous Solution

This dataset was generated using an iterative active-learning strategy implemented in the ArcaNN software package (https://github.com/arcann-chem/arcann_training) to train machine-learning interatomic potentials for aqueous ZnCl2 solutions. Each active-learning cycle consisted of three stages: training, exploration, and labeling. The initial training set combined configurations generated in this work from enhanced-sampling ab initio molecular dynamics simulations with configurations from a previously reported neural-network-potential study of aqueous ZnCl2. The enhanced-sampling ab initio molecular dynamics simulations involved Zn–Cl separation and the chloride coordination number around Zn²? as collective variables. These configurations served as the seed dataset. Subsequent active-learning cycles expanded the training set by identifying and labeling configurations that were poorly represented by the current models, thereby improving coverage of ion-association states and changes in local coordination and charge-state environments relevant to the solution free-energy landscape. For all selected configurations, single-point calculations of the total energies and atomic forces were performed within density functional theory using the CP2K Quickstep module. Reference calculations employed the revPBE-D3 and r2SCAN exchange-correlation functionals. Motivated by recent work on aqueous Zn²?, the main revPBE calculations omitted D3 dispersion contributions involving Zn²?, while retaining the D3 correction for water and chloride. For comparison, fully dispersion-corrected revPBE-D3 reference calculations were also performed, with D3 applied to all species, including Zn²?. Valence electrons were treated explicitly, while core electrons were represented using norm-conserving Goedecker–Teter–Hutter pseudopotentials. The wave functions were expanded using the mixed Gaussian-and-plane-wave scheme with TZV2P-MOLOPT basis sets for all elements and a 600 Ry auxiliary plane-wave cutoff for the electron density. Self-consistent-field convergence was accelerated using the orbital-transformation and Direct Inversion in the Iterative Subspace algorithms, with a convergence threshold of 10?6. All single-point calculations were performed in periodic orthorhombic cells. The CELL_REF keyword in CP2K was used to define a fixed reference cell with a box length of 25 Å. This treatment ensured a consistent reference for configurations extracted from NpT trajectories with fluctuating cell dimensions. The resulting DFT energies and atomic forces constitute the ground-truth labels used to train the MLIPs. The resulting MLIP was trained for aqueous ZnCl2 solutions spanning concentrations from 0 to 30 molal and a broad pH range, from strongly acidic to strongly basic conditions. Representative examples of configurations included in the MLIP training dataset are provided below. These include 1) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the revPBE-D3 level, with D3 dispersion interactions involving Zn2+ excluded (revPBE-wo-D3). 2) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the fully dispersion-corrected revPBE-D3 level, with D3 interactions applied to all species, including Zn2+ (revPBE-D3). 3) Representative configurations from the dataset labeled at the r2SCAN level of theory (r2SCAN).

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan [Pacific Northwest Nation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Actinium–DOTA coordination in water from hybrid ML/MM: Structure, free energies, and water-exchange pathways

Quantitative simulation of trivalent ƒ-block chelates in water remains challenging because bonded and non-bonded force-field models make different approximations for coordination structure, exchange dynamics, and ion–ligand interactions in highly charged systems. Here, we develop a hybrid machine-learning/molecular-mechanics (ML/MM) framework for Ac 3+ –DOTA in explicit solvent by training an E(3)-equivariant neural network potential (MACELES) on mechanically embedded QM/MM data for Ac aquo and Ac–DOTA species and coupling it to NAMD 2.14 with particle-mesh Ewald electrostatics. Nanosecond ML/MM trajectories remain numerically stable and preserve chelate integrity, yielding a compact DOTA inner shell with an inner-sphere water coordination number of CN Ac,O w ≈ 1.7 arising from a dynamic equilibrium between one- and two-water states (37.5% and 59.9% of frames; three waters 2.5%). A 5 ns potential of mean force shows two low-lying basins at CN Ac,O w ≈ 1 and CN Ac,O w ≈ 2. DFT end-state free energies are consistent with the ML/MM profile, and DFT minimum-energy paths provide a qualitative electronic-structure reference for the observed basin connectivity. State-resolved kinetics reveal picosecond water-exchange pathways that couple hydration changes to transient DOTA arm fluctuations, and training-set comparisons show that temperature-matched Ac–DOTA data optimize energy/force accuracy while more diverse solvated data improve charge prediction. Overall, the present hybrid ML/MM model provides a practical description of Ac 3+ –DOTA hydration thermodynamics and short-time exchange behavior in explicit water at MD-like cost.

Actinium↗
DOE OSTI2020

Intelligent multi-zone residential HVAC control strategy based on deep reinforcement learning

Residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) has been considered as an important demand response resource. However, the optimization of residential HVAC control is no trivial task due to the complexity of the thermal dynamic models of buildings and uncertainty associated with both occupant-driven heat loads and weather forecasts. In this paper, we apply a novel model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) method, known as the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG), to generate an optimal control strategy for a multi-zone residential HVAC system with the goal of minimizing energy consumption cost while maintaining the users’ comfort. Here, the applied deep RL-based method learns through continuous interaction with a simulated building environment and without referring to any prior model knowledge. Simulation results show that compared with the state-of-art deep Q network (DQN), the DDPG-based HVAC control strategy can reduce the energy consumption cost by 15% and reduce the comfort violation by 79%; and when compared with a rule-based HVAC control strategy, the comfort violation can be reduced by 98%. In addition, experiments with different building models and retail price models demonstrate that the well-trained DDPG-based HVAC control strategy has high generalization and adaptability to unseen environments, which indicates its practicability for real-world implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

SOLAR FLARE PREDICTION USING SDO/HMI VECTOR MAGNETIC FIELD DATA WITH A MACHINE-LEARNING ALGORITHM

We attempt to forecast M- and X-class solar flares using a machine-learning algorithm, called support vector machine (SVM), and four years of data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager, the first instrument to continuously map the full-disk photospheric vector magnetic field from space. Most flare forecasting efforts described in the literature use either line-of-sight magnetograms or a relatively small number of ground-based vector magnetograms. This is the first time a large data set of vector magnetograms has been used to forecast solar flares. We build a catalog of flaring and non-flaring active regions sampled from a database of 2071 active regions, comprised of 1.5 million active region patches of vector magnetic field data, and characterize each active region by 25 parameters. We then train and test the machine-learning algorithm and we estimate its performances using forecast verification metrics with an emphasis on the true skill statistic (TSS). We obtain relatively high TSS scores and overall predictive abilities. We surmise that this is partly due to fine-tuning the SVM for this purpose and also to an advantageous set of features that can only be calculated from vector magnetic field data. We also apply a feature selection algorithm to determine which of our 25 features are useful for discriminating between flaring and non-flaring active regions and conclude that only a handful are needed for good predictive abilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sub-10 second fly-scan nano-tomography using machine learning

Abstract X-ray computed tomography is a versatile technique for 3D structure characterization. However, conventional reconstruction algorithms require that the sample not change throughout the scan, and the timescale of sample dynamics must be longer than the data acquisition time to fulfill the stable sample requirement. Meanwhile, concerns about X-ray-induced parasite reaction and sample damage have driven research efforts to reduce beam dosage. Here, we report a machine-learning-based image processing method that can significantly reduce data acquisition time and X-ray dose, outperforming conventional approaches like Filtered-Back Projection, maximum-likelihood, and model-based maximum-a-posteriori probability. Applying machine learning, we achieve ultrafast nano-tomography with sub-10 second data acquisition time and sub-50 nm pixel resolution in a transmission X-ray microscope. We apply our algorithm to study dynamic morphology changes in a lithium-ion battery cathode under a heating rate of 50 o C min −1 , revealing crack self-healing during thermal annealing. The proposed method can be applied to various tomography modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Koopman learning of nonlinear time-varying systems

Here this paper presents a data-driven approach to approximate the dynamics of a nonlinear time-varying system (NTVS) by a linear time-varying system (LTVS), which results from the Koopman operator and deep neural networks. Analysis of the approximation error between states of the NTVS and the resulting LTVS is presented. Simulations on a representative NTVS show that the proposed method achieves small approximation errors, even when the system changes rapidly. Furthermore, simulations in an example of quadcopters demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

RandONets: Shallow networks with random projections for learning linear and nonlinear operators

Deep neural networks have been extensively used for the solution of both the forward and the inverse problem for dynamical systems. However, their implementation necessitates optimizing a high-dimensional space of parameters and hyperparameters. This fact, along with the requirement of substantial computational resources, pose a barrier to achieving high numerical accuracy, but also interpretability. Here, to address the above challenges, we present Random Projection-based Operator Networks (RandONets): shallow networks with random projections and tailor-made numerical analysis methods that learn accurately and fast linear and nonlinear operators. Building on previous works, we prove that RandOnets are universal approximators of linear and nonlinear operators. Due to their simplicity, RandONets provide a one-step transformation of the input space, facilitating interpretability. For the evaluation of their performance, we focus on operators of PDEs. We show, that RandONets outperform by several orders of magnitude, both in terms of numerical approximation accuracy and computational cost, the “vanilla” DeepONets. Hence, we believe that our method will trigger further developments in the field of scientific machine learning, for the development of new ‘’light”schemes that will provide high accuracy while reducing dramatically the computational cost. A MATLAB toolbox for RandONets, including demos, is available on GitHub at https://github.com/GianlucaFabiani/RandONets.

Interpretable machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design of Experiments for Dynamic Test Runs in Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture Pilot Plants

Test runs in the pilot plants consume significant resources, and therefore, the learning from test runs should be maximized. Test runs conducted in the pilot plants are often steady state. It takes several hours for reaching steady-state in the pilot plants, and thus, the duration of the test runs needs to be long even for collecting few steady-state data points. On the other hand, a large number of measurements can be collected through dynamic test runs in a short span of time. This paper presents a systematic design of dynamic experiments (DoDEs) for identifiability of model parameters, which is achieved by persistently exciting the inputs signals. A pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) is designed as the input signal for DoDE due to its efficiency in obtaining sufficient spectral content. However, due to the long sequence size of the PRBS signal, a Schroeder-phase input signal, which is a multisine signal, is also designed. Tests for both types of signals are run in the Pilot Solvent Test Unit (PSTU) at the National Carbon Capture Center in Wilsonville, Alabama. The transient data are used to solve dynamic data reconciliation and parameter estimation problem. The estimated parameters are found to be not only superior to those estimated from using data collected from hundreds of steady-state test runs in a nonreactive (air–water) system, but the parameters could be estimated by using the dynamic data collected for about 24 h from the pilot plant for the MEA-H 2 O–CO 2 system.

CO2 capture↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction and Experimental Verification of Electrolyte Solvation Structure from an OMol25-Trained Interatomic Potential

A molecular-level understanding of electrolyte solvation structure and ion–ion correlations is critical to developing next-generation battery chemistries. Atomistic simulation capabilities with sufficient accuracy, speed, and transferability to deliver reliable structural insights while avoiding arduous system-specific reparameterization are thus highly desirable. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) trained on large, chemically diverse data sets are revolutionizing computational chemistry, enabling molecular dynamics simulations of battery electrolytes with near-DFT accuracy over 10,000× faster than DFT. While previous MLIP training data sets with suitable elemental coverage for electrolytes have been based on inorganic materials, the Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) data set provides large-scale molecular DFT MLIP training data with broad elemental coverage and specifically samples tens of millions of electrolyte configurations. Here, we integrate computational modeling with experimental validation to systematically assess the ability of large-scale MLIPs pretrained on materials data or on OMol25 to accurately resolve nanoscale structural organization and ion-solvation characteristics in Na-ion battery electrolytes across diverse physicochemical conditions and compositional regimes. We find that the OMol25-trained Universal Model of Atoms (UMA-OMol) predicts experimentally measured densities and X-ray structure factors in substantially better agreement compared to state-of-the-art models trained only on inorganic materials data. Using UMA-OMol, we further analyze systematic trends in solvation structure as a function of cation identity, anion chemistry, salt concentration, and solvent topology. We observe that increasing system temperature amplifies the heterogeneity within the solvation environment, perturbing cation–solvent interactions and promoting the formation of contact ion pairs (CIPs). Moreover, subtle variations in the solvent topology of glyme-based electrolytes cause pronounced changes in ion correlations and solvation structure. The experimental agreement and microscopic insights shown here position OMol25-trained MLIPs as a practical route to predictive, high-throughput electrolyte simulations beyond the limits of classical force fields and direct DFT molecular dynamics, serving as a powerful tool for accelerating the design of next-generation Na-ion battery electrolytes and beyond.

MLIPs↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using kernel-based statistical distance to study the dynamics of charged particle beams in particle-based simulation codes

Measures of discrepancy between probability distributions (statistical distance) are widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning. We describe how certain measures of statistical distance can be implemented as numerical diagnostics for simulations involving charged-particle beams. Related measures of statistical dependence are also described. The resulting diagnostics provide sensitive measures of dynamical processes important for beams in nonlinear or high-intensity systems, which are otherwise difficult to characterize. Here, the focus is on kernel-based methods such as maximum mean discrepancy, which have a well-developed mathematical foundation and reasonable computational complexity. Several benchmark problems and examples involving intense beams are discussed. While the focus is on charged-particle beams, these methods may also be applied to other many-body systems such as plasmas or gravitational systems.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quasi-Classical Trajectory Calculation of Rate Constants Using an Ab Initio Trained Machine Learning Model (aML-MD) with Multifidelity Data

Machine learning (ML) provides a great opportunity for the construction of models with improved accuracy in classical molecular dynamics (MD). However, the accuracy of a ML trained model is limited by the quality and quantity of the training data. Generating large sets of accurate ab initio training data can require significant computational resources. Furthermore, inconsistent or incompatible data with different accuracies obtained using different methods may lead to biased or unreliable ML models that do not accurately represent the underlying physics. Recently, transfer learning showed its potential for avoiding these problems as well as for improving the accuracy, efficiency, and generalization of ML models using multifidelity data. In this work, ab initio trained ML-based MD (aML-MD) models are developed through transfer learning using DFT and multireference data from multiple sources with varying accuracy within the Deep Potential MD framework. Further, the accuracy of the force field is demonstrated by calculating rate constants for the H + HO 2 → H 2 + 3 O 2 reaction using quasi-classical trajectories. We show that the aML-MD model with transfer learning can accurately predict the rate constants while reducing the computational cost by more than five times compared to the use of more expensive quantum chemistry training data sets. Hence, the aML-MD model with transfer learning shows great potential in using multifidelity data to reduce the computational cost involved in generating the training set for these potentials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Automatic Generation Control of Wind Farms

This paper provides a model-free framework for real-time control of wind farms to accurately track a power reference signal. This problem requires tractable dynamical models for capturing the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines and controllers that can make decisions in realtime given varying atmospheric conditions. In this paper, we propose a deep reinforcement learning framework to provide real-time yaw control of a wind farm. Modifications have been made to FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS), a modeling tool that incorporates transient wake behavior. The control problem is formulated to track a synthetic power reference signal based on historical atmospheric (wind speed and direction) information, price signals, and regulation deployment data from U.S. regional transmission operators. Results indicate that a wind farm, with this control paradigm, can achieve good tracking performance when tested with real atmospheric data.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Nanoconfinement Effects Using Active Learning

Predicting the spatial configuration of gas in nanopores of is relevant in applications such as fluid flow forecasting and hydrocarbon reserves estimation. For example, shale reservoirs have suffered from computationally intractable multiscale problems, since fluid properties such as viscosity, density, and adsorption must be calculated by using expensive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations within each nanopore, whereas flow through these connected nanopores must be simulated at the micrometer scale. We utilize machine learning techniques to quickly and accurately model nanoscale confinement effects as an important step toward bridging the nano and micro scales. Our workflow is based on building and training physics-based deep-neural-networks models by learning from a database of MD calculations. The model accounts for the adsorption phenomenon by predicting the statistical distribution of gas inside nanopores. Because large databases of MD calculations are expensive to create, we investigate active learning (AL) as a data set construction strategy. In this workflow, new data are selected based on the model uncertainty via the query-by-committee approach. We show that our workflow obtains accurate models that generalize to real scanning electron microscopy geometries with 1/10th of the number of MD calculations required vs random data set generation. Our method enables the possibility of modeling nanoconfinement effects at the mesoscale, where complex connected sets of nanopores affect flow.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗