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DOE OSTI2023

Blind photovoltaic modeling intercomparison: A multidimensional data analysis and lessons learned

The Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC) organized a blind PV performance modeling intercomparison to allow PV modelers to blindly test their models and modeling ability against real system data. Measured weather and irradiance data were provided along with detailed descriptions of PV systems from two locations (Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and Roskilde, Denmark). Participants were asked to simulate the plane-of-array irradiance, module temperature, and DC power output from six systems and submit their results to Sandia for processing. The results showed overall median mean bias (i.e., the average error per participant) of 0.6% in annual irradiation and –3.3% in annual energy yield. While most PV performance modeling results seem to exhibit higher precision and accuracy as compared to an earlier blind PV modeling study in 2010, human errors, modeling skills, and derates were found to still cause significant errors in the estimates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

An improved method for direct incident solar radiation calculation from hourly solar insolation data in building energy simulation

Solar radiation considerably influences the energy consumption of buildings and the power production of building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems. Hourly solar insolation (Wh/m 2 ), represented as the amount of solar irradiance collected on the ground during a 1-h period, is the most common solar radiation data available and widely used in weather files applied in building energy modeling programs (BEMPs). Because the solar beam and position vary over time, the use of hourly insolation data as the input might result in errors in the estimation of the direct incident solar radiation on a particular surface. In this study, methods used in BEMPs for direct incident solar radiation calculations are first analyzed, and an improved method adopting a new algorithm for estimating the solar irradiance is proposed. Furthermore, the algorithm assumes that the solar irradiance changes linearly within a 1-h period and can be estimated based on the solar irradiance at the half clock and slope. The collected direct normal solar irradiance data of 2016 from eight solar radiation stations in China were used to demonstrate the proposed method and evaluate its performance by comparing the results with those from three conventional methods used in BEMPs along with the ground truth measurements. In addition, in this study, factors affecting the accuracy of the calculation results are explored. The results of the estimated direct incident solar radiation show that the proposed method achieves the best accuracy, followed by the methods used in DOE-2, EnergyPlus, and DeST. The proposed method guarantees that the hourly direct solar insolation will remain the same and reflects the variation in the direct solar irradiance across a 1-h time frame. The proposed method can be adopted in BEMPs to improve the accuracy of the solar radiation calculation, thereby improving the accuracy of the simulated building performance and the BIPV production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

1-D coupled surface flow and transport equations revisited via the physics-informed neural network approach

The de Saint-Venant equation (SVE) and advection–diffusion equation (ADE) are commonly employed to solve solute transport problems in surface water. In this work, we propose a mesh-free method based on the physics-informed neural network (PINN) to solve the one dimensional (1-D) SVE, ADE, and the coupled SVE and ADE (SVE-ADE) under various initial and boundary conditions. The PINN model extends the architecture of deep neural networks (DNNs) with implementation of loss function, which are additionally subject to constraints imposed by the physical laws of SVE and ADE, along with their initial and boundary conditions. In such a manner, PINNs can be quickly steered to the true solution while obeying the physical laws. The results of PINN model are compared with the analytical and/or numerical solutions under various conditions to investigate its accuracy and efficiency in solving the SVE, ADE, and SVE-ADE. Our results indicate PINN can accurately simulate the shock wave morphology and avoid numerical dissipation in unsteady flow condition. The PINN method outweighed traditional numerical methods in several aspects, including its ability to function with small amounts of data, no grid discretization, and random selection of sampling points, etc. Additionally, the PINN method is also suitable for solving inverse problems with sparse and noisy data. With 1% noise and 2000 initial and boundary condition points (N u ), the errors of the estimated flow rate (v) and diffusion coefficient (D) are 0.003% and 0.105%, respectively, which indicate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method. Finally, our results indicate the capability and robustness of the proposed PINN methodology for solving multi-physics problems, irrespective of the presence of sparse and noisy data in the training dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High precision tests of QCD without scale or scheme ambiguities: The 40th anniversary of the Brodsky–Lepage–Mackenzie method

A key issue in making precise predictions in QCD is the uncertainty in setting the renormalization scale μ r and thus determining the correct values of the QCD running coupling α s (μ r ) at each order in the perturbative expansion of a QCD observable. It has often been conventional to simply set the renormalization scale to the typical scale of the process Q and vary it in the range μ r $\in$ [Q/2, 2Q] in order to estimate the theoretical error. This is the practice of Conventional Scale Setting (CSS). The resulting CSS prediction will however depend on the theorist’s choice of renormalization scheme and the resulting pQCD series will diverge factorially. It will also disagree with renormalization scale setting used in QED and electroweak theory thus precluding grand unification. A solution to the renormalization scale-setting problem is offered by the Principle of Maximum Conformality (PMC), which provides a systematic way to eliminate the renormalization scale-and-scheme dependence in perturbative calculations. The PMC method has rigorous theoretical foundations, it satisfies Renormalization Group Invariance (RGI) and preserves all self-consistency conditions derived from the renormalization group. The PMC cancels the renormalon growth, reduces to the Gell-Mann–Low scheme in the N c → 0 Abelian limit and leads to scale- and scheme-invariant results. The PMC has now been successfully applied to many high-energy processes. In this article we summarize recent developments and results in solving the renormalization scale and scheme ambiguities in perturbative QCD. In particular, we present a recently developed method the PMC ∞ and its applications, comparing the results with CSS. The method preserves the property of renormalizable SU(N)/U(1) gauge theories defined as Intrinsic Conformality (iCF). This property underlies the scale invariance of physical observables and leads to a remarkably efficient method to solve the conventional renormalization scale ambiguity at every order in pQCD. This new method reflects the underlying conformal properties displayed by pQCD at NNLO, eliminates the scheme dependence of pQCD predictions and is consistent with the general properties of the PMC. A new method to identify conformal and β-terms, which can be applied either to numerical or to theoretical calculations is also shown. We present results for the thrust and C-parameter distributions in e + e - annihilation showing errors and comparison with the CSS. We also show results for a recent innovative comparison between the CSS and the PMC ∞ applied to the thrust distribution investigating both the QCD conformal window and the QED N c → 0 limit. In order to determine the thrust distribution along the entire renormalization group flow from the highest energies to zero energy, we consider the number of flavors near the upper boundary of the conformal window. In this flavor-number regime the theory develops a perturbative infrared interacting fixed point. These results show that PMC ∞ leads to higher precision and introduces new interesting features in the PMC. In fact, this method preserves with continuity the position of the peak, showing perfect agreement with the experimental data already at NNLO. We also show a detailed comparison of the PMC ∞ with the other PMC approaches: the multi-scale-setting approach (PMCm) and the single-scale-setting approach (PMCs) by comparing their predictions for three important fully integrated quantities R e+e- , R$_Τ$ and Γ (H→$b\bar{b}$) up to the four-loop accuracy.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Elucidating the challenges in extracting ultra-slow flame speeds in a closed vessel - A CH 2 F 2 microgravity case study using optical and pressure-rise data

Refrigerants with a low global warming potential (GWP) possess mild flammability. Hence, a fundamental understanding of their combustion characteristics is required to assess their fire-hazardous potential. The laminar burning velocity is one fundamental property to describe these under safety evaluation aspects. However, measuring laminar burning velocities for slow-burning components, such as low-GWP alternatives, is challenging. This is due to influencing effects such as buoyant flame deformation, stretch, radiation, and confinement, especially at the flammability limits. Here, in the present study, we investigated near-limit flames of the representative refrigerant difluoromethane (CH 2 F 2 ) with nitrogen-enriched oxidizer mixtures to elucidate the potentials and limitations at ultra-slow flame speeds of two widely used flame speed measurement methods in the closed vessel configuration: the optical flame speed measurement in the early quasi-isobaric regime and the flame speed determination from the pressure-rise during the later phase of the isochoric combustion process. Experiments were performed under terrestrial- and microgravity, conducted in a specially designed setup suitable for drop tower applications, using both methods in parallel. Recommendations for the extraction of flame speed data are derived from the non-buoyant reference investigations under microgravity and transferred to ultra-slow flames at terrestrial gravity. Near-limit flames under microgravity were found to be significantly affected by stretch effects for the optical method so that flame speed extrapolations to unstretched conditions are prone to errors. Stretch also affects the pressure method’s lower evaluation limit, and errors can be estimated by combining flame speed data from the pressure method and Markstein lengths from optical experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microkinetic Modeling: A Tool for Rational Catalyst Design

The design of heterogeneous catalysts relies on understanding the fundamental surface kinetics that controls catalyst performance, and microkinetic modeling is a tool that can help the researcher in streamlining the process of catalyst design. Microkinetic modeling is used to identify critical reaction intermediates and rate-determining elementary reactions, thereby providing vital information for designing an improved catalyst. In this review, we summarize general procedures for developing microkinetic models using reaction kinetics parameters obtained from experimental data, theoretical correlations, and quantum chemical calculations. We examine the methods required to ensure the thermodynamic consistency of the microkinetic model. We describe procedures required for parameter adjustments to account for the heterogeneity of the catalyst and the inherent errors in parameter estimation. We discuss the analysis of microkinetic models to determine the rate determining reactions using the degree of rate control and reversibility of each elementary reaction. We introduce incorporation of Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi relations and scaling relations in microkinetic models and the effects of these relations on catalytic performance and formation of volcano curves. We review the analysis of reaction schemes in terms of the maximum rate of elementary reactions, and we outline a procedure to identify kinetically significant transition states and adsorbed intermediates. Here, we explore the application of generalized rate expressions for the prediction of optimal binding energies of important surface intermediates and to estimate the extent of potential rate improvement. We also explore the application of microkinetic modeling in homogeneous catalysis, electro-catalysis, and transient reaction kinetics. We conclude by highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the application of microkinetic modeling for catalyst design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A variational framework for residual-based adaptivity in neural PDE solvers and operator learning

Residual-based adaptive strategies are widely used in scientific machine learning yet remain largely heuristic. We introduce a variational framework that formalizes these methods through convex transformations of the residual, where different transformations correspond to distinct objective functionals. For instance, exponential weights target uniform error minimization, while linear weights recover quadratic error minimization. This perspective reveals adaptive weighting as a means of selecting sampling distributions that optimize a primal objective, directly linking discretization choices to error metrics. This principled approach yields three key benefits: it enables systematic design of adaptive schemes, reduces discretization error by lowering estimator variance, and enhances learning dynamics by improving gradient signal-to-noise ratio. Extending the framework to operator learning, we demonstrate substantial performance gains across diverse optimizers and architectures. Our results provide a theoretical perspective for residual-based adaptivity and establish a foundation for principled discretization and training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recent progress in global optimizations of covariant energy density functionals

The recent progress on global optimizations of covariant energy density functionals (CEDFs) and global calculations of binding energies within the covariant density functional theory (CDFT) has been analyzed and reviewed. Recently developed anchor-based optimization approach of Ref. [1] allows global optimizations of CEDFs at a reasonable numerical cost. Moreover, it permits such optimizations in a very large fermionic basis with a proper extrapolation to an infinite one. This allows to accurately estimate global calculation errors due to use of truncated fermionic basis and neglect of some contributions to binding energies (such as total electron binding energy).

Afanasjev, A. V. [Mississippi State University, MS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tempering stochastic density functional theory

Here, we introduce a tempering approach with stochastic density functional theory (sDFT), labeled t-sDFT, which reduces the statistical errors in the estimates of observable expectation values. This is achieved by rewriting the electronic density as a sum of a "warm" component complemented by "colder" correction(s). Since the warm component is larger in magnitude but faster to evaluate, we use many more stochastic orbitals for its evaluation than for the smaller-sized colder correction(s). This results in a significant reduction in the statistical fluctuations and systematic deviation compared to sDFT for the same computational effort. We demonstrate the method's performance on large hydrogen-passivated silicon nanocrystals, finding a reduction in the systematic deviation in the energy by more than an order of magnitude, while the systematic deviation in the forces is also quenched. Similarly, the statistical fluctuations are reduced by factors of ≈4-5 for the total energy and ≈1.5-2 for the forces on the atoms. Since the embedding in t-sDFT is fully stochastic, it is possible to combine t-sDFT with other variants of sDFT such as energy-window sDFT and embedded-fragmented sDFT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive mesh refinement in binary black holes simulations

Abstract We discuss refinement criteria for the Berger–Rigoutsos (block-based) refinement algorithm in our numerical relativity code GR-Athena++ in the context of binary black hole (BBH) merger simulations. We compare three different strategies: the ‘box-in-box’ approach, the ‘sphere-in-sphere’ approach and a local criterion for refinement based on the estimation of truncation error of the finite difference scheme. We extract and compare gravitational waveforms using the three different mesh refinement methods and compare their accuracy against a calibration waveform and demonstrate that the sphere-in-sphere approach provides the best strategy overall when considering computational cost and the waveform accuracy. Ultimately, we demonstrate the capability of each mesh refinement method in accurately simulating gravitational waves from BBH systems—a crucial aspect for their application in next-generation detectors. We quantify the mismatch achievable with the different strategies by extrapolating the gravitational wave mismatch to higher resolution.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing quantum clocks and sensors with randomization and decoherence

This letter shows how incoherent dynamics can lead to metrological advantages in quantum sensing. The results rely on the fact that incoherent dynamics lead to an additive contribution to the quantum Fisher information about time. Such an additive contribution can reduce the error of optimal estimation protocols, as implied by the quantum Cramér–Rao bound. I characterize regimes in which the estimation of a time interval or a frequency is enhanced by decoherence, thereby identifying cases in which incoherent dynamics serve as a metrological resource. The decoherence processes that yield enhanced precision of quantum sensors can be engineered by randomized Hamiltonian dynamics. I illustrate the results with protocols that display improved sensing of time intervals or global fields by qubit and photonic sensors. Enhanced precision of time intervals is achieved with Hamiltonians that include randomized global parameters. Enhanced precision in field estimation is obtained by randomized sensing times.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Continuous-variable quantum computation of the O(3) model in 1+1 dimensions

We formulate the $O(3)$ non-linear sigma model in $1+1$ dimensions as a limit of a three-component scalar field theory restricted to the unit sphere in the large squeezing limit. This allows us to describe the model in terms of the continuous variable (CV) approach to quantum computing. Here we construct the ground state and excited states using the coupled cluster ansatz and find excellent agreement with the exact diagonalization results for a small number of lattice sites. We then present the simulation protocol for the time evolution of the model using CV gates, estimate the discretization error, and present numerical results obtained from a photonic quantum simulator. We expect that the methods developed in this work will be useful for exploring interesting dynamics for a wide class of sigma models and gauge theories, as well as for simulating scattering events on quantum hardware in the coming decade.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying Uncertainties In Neutron-Alpha Scattering With Chiral Nucleon-Nucleon And Three-Nucleon Forces

We report that modern ab initio theory combined with high-quality nucleon-nucleon (NN) and three-nucleon (3N) interactions from chiral effective field theory (EFT) can provide a predictive description of low-energy light-nuclei reactions relevant for astrophysics and fusion-energy applications. However, the high cost of computations has so far impeded a complete analysis of the uncertainty budget of such calculations. Starting from NN potentials up to fifth order (N 4 LO) combined with leading-order 3N forces, we study how the order-by-order convergence of the chiral expansion and confidence intervals for the 3N contact and contact-plus-one-pion-exchange low-energy constants (c E and c D ) contribute to the overall uncertainty budget of many-body calculations of neutron- 4 He (n-α) elastic scattering. We compute structure and reaction observables for three-, four-, and five-nucleon systems within the ab initio frameworks of the no-core shell model and no-core shell model with continuum. Using a small set of design runs, we construct a Gaussian process model (GPM) that acts as a statistical emulator for the theory. With this, we gain insight into how uncertainties in the 3N low-energy constants propagate throughout the calculation and determine the Bayesian posterior distribution of these parameters with Markov-Chain Monte Carlo. We find rapidly converging n-α phase shifts with respect to the chiral order. With the adopted leading-order 3N force, calculations based on the NN interaction at N 4 LO of Entem, Machleidt, and Nosyk are unable to reproduce the experimental phase shifts in the 3/2 - channel within the estimated chiral truncation errors. Closer agreement with empirical data is found when using an older parametrization of the NN interaction at order N 3 LO, and the position and width of the P-wave resonances can be used to reduce the uncertainty of the 3N low-energy constants. The present results point to a lack of spin-orbit strength when the newer parametrization of the chiral NN force up to fifth order is combined with the leading-order 3N force. The inclusion of higher-order 3N-force terms may be required to recover the missing strength. GPMs can act as fast and accurate emulators of ab initio many-body calculations of low-energy scattering and reactions of light nuclei, opening the way to a robust quantification of theoretical uncertainties grounded in the description of the underlying chiral Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ab initio calculation of the β-decay spectrum of 6 He

Here, we calculate the β spectrum in the decay of 6 He using quantum Monte Carlo methods with nuclear interactions derived from chiral effective field theory and consistent weak vector and axial currents. We work at second order in the multipole expansion, retaining terms suppressed by O(q 2 /m$^{2}_{π}$), where q denotes low-energy scales such as the reaction’s Q value or the electron energy, and m π is the pion mass. We go beyond the impulse approximation by including the effects of two-body vector and axial currents. We estimate the theoretical error on the spectrum by using four potential models in the Norfolk family of local two- and three-nucleon interactions, which have different cutoffs, fit two-nucleon data up to different energies, and use different observables to determine the couplings in the three-body force. We find the theoretical uncertainty on the β spectrum, normalized by the total rate, to be well below the permille level, and to receive contributions of comparable size from first- and second-order corrections in the multipole expansion. We consider corrections to the β decay spectrum induced by beyond-standard-model charged-current interactions in the standard model effective field theory, with and without sterile neutrinos, and discuss the sensitivity of the next generation of experiments to these interactions.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cold neutron-deuteron capture and Wigner-SU(4) symmetry

We calculate the cold neutron-deuteron (nd) capture cross section,σ nd to next-to-next-to leading order (NNLO) using the model-independent approach of pionless effective-field theory [EFT(π)]. At leading order we find σ nd = 0.314 ± 0.217 mb, while the experimental result is 0.508(15) mb for a laboratory neutron velocity of 2200 m/s. At next-to-leading-order (NLO), we show that σnd is sensitive to the low-energy constant (LEC) $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ of the two-nucleon isovector current appearing at NLO. A fit of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ at NLO to the triton magnetic moment yields a NLO prediction of σ nd = 0.393 ± 0.164 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ fit. At NNLO, we find that a new three-nucleon magnetic moment counterterm is required for renormalization-group invariance of both σnd and the triton magnetic moment. Fitting the NNLO correction to $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ (denoted $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$) to cold neutron-proton capture (σnp) yields a NNLO prediction of σ nd = 0.447 ± 0.130 mb, where the error comes from propagating the error from the $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ fit. We also study different fittings of $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ and $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ to σ np , σ nd , and/or the triton magnetic moment. For example, fitting $L$$^{(0)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np , σ nd , and the triton magnetic moment at NLO, and fitting $L$$^{(1)}_{1}$ simultaneously to σ np and σnd at NNLO, yields σ nd = 0.480 ± 0.114 mb and 0.511 ± 0.042 mb, respectively, where errors are naively estimated from EFT(π) power counting. Additionally, we discuss how Wigner SU(4) symmetry may alter the naive EFT(π) expansion of σ nd .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

BCS (CSP Beam Characterization System) [SWR-23-13]

The Beam Characterization System (BCS) is an image-processing tool for estimating heliostat tracking errors. A large mirror, or heliostat, reflects the sun onto a distant target. A carefully calibrated camera then takes an image of this target to capture the shape of the reflected beam. The software kit hosts a series of scripts to identify key features and run analysis on the captured images.

Kesseli, Devon↗

DOE OSTI2025

CFDverify

Estimating the discretization error of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) or other scientific codes as part of solution verification is often a non-trivial part of the analysis process. Methods can be complicated and may include assumptions/qualifications that need to be checked during analysis. CFD analysts, therefore, are likely to make errors when trying to conduct this necessary analysis on their own in not knowing about the best method for their problem, not correctly implementing a method, or in not have diagnostic tools to determine if the method was correctly applied.

Weinmeister, Justin [Oak Ridge National Laboratory↗