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Adaptation to climate change must be ramped up urgently. We propose three avenues to transform ambition to action: improve tracking of actions and progress, upscale investment especially in critical areas, and accelerate learning through practice.
This archive contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine”, by Reinhardt et al., 2011. Data were collected over one summer season in plots within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), before climate manipulations began. The experiment was located on Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. This data package includes five comma-separated-values (.csv) files, five Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf file, and two types of geospatial files: keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editing software (such as Notepad and TextEdit), R, and Microsoft Excel. .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .pdf file can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader or any other compatible file viewing software. The .kml file can be opened using Google Earth and Google Maps, and shapefiles can be opened using any software compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS.Data archived contain gas exchange and plant physiology measurements, non-structural carbohydrate data, among others. Geospatial files are also provided for additional locational context. The files and their contents in this data package are summarized under "Data Summary" in the included Data User's Guide. All files (excluding geospatial) are available in both Microsoft Excel and in .csv format, and are indicated in the Data Summary list as well.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Climate change is predicted to cause upward shifts in forest tree distributions, which will require seedling recruitment beyond current forest boundaries. However, predicting the likelihood of successful plant establishment beyond current species’ ranges under changing climate is complicated by the interaction of genetic and environmental controls on seedling establishment. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone and examined differences in physiology and morphology between provenances and among sites. Plant dry mass, projected leaf area and shoot:root ratios were 12–40% greater in LO compared with HI seedlings at each elevation. There were no significant changes in these variables among sites except for decreased dry mass of LO seedlings in the alpine site. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration) and conductance increased >2× with elevation for both provenances, and were 35–77% greater in LO seedlings compared with HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. Our results suggest that for P. flexilis seedlings, provenances selected for above-ground growth may outperform those selected for stress resistance in the absence of harsh climatic conditions, even well above the species’ range limits in the alpine zone. This indicates that forest genetics may be important to understanding and managing species’ range adjustments due to climate change.
Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.
Environmental flow management in watersheds with multi-objective reservoirs is often presented as an additional constraint to an already strained and over-allocated stream system. Nevertheless, environmental flow legislation and regulatory policies are increasingly being developed and implemented globally. In California, USA, recent legislative and regulatory policies place environmental flows at the forefront of the state’s water management objectives; however, the increased reliance on hydropower to support climate change mitigation goals may complicate efforts on both issues. This study modelled alternative environmental flow strategies in the major tributaries to the San Joaquin River in California. Strategies included detailed water management rules for hydropower production, flood control, and water deliveries, and three methodological approaches to environmental flow releases: minimum instream flows (“baseline”) year-round, 40% of full natural flow (FNF) during the spring runoff season and minimum releases the remainder of the year, and functional flows year-round. Results show that environmental flow strategies affect downstream flow releases in each of the San Joaquin’s four sub-basins differently depending on infrastructure capacity, water management objectives, and hydrologic year types. While hydropower production was comparable or declined in the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced basins, functional flow and 40% FNF strategies increased hydropower production in the Upper San Joaquin basin by 11%. Uncontrolled spill of high flow events decreased when high flow releases were based on hydrologic cues rather than exclusively on flood storage capacity. Water deliveries were reduced in all years regardless of environmental flow strategy. The 40% FNF and functional flow strategies both increased water released to the river relative to baseline, but in different ways. The functional flow strategy allocated water in a holistic approach that enhanced ecological functions in all years, but particularly in moderate and wet years. In contrast, the 40% FNF strategy provided increased flows relative to baseline and some ecological benefit in dry years, but less ecological benefit in other years. This study shows that alternative environmental flow strategies will have different and important trade-offs for integrated water management, and may mutually benefit seemingly conflicting objectives.
Almost half of the global terrestrial soil carbon (C) is stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost region, where air temperatures are increasing two times faster than the global average. As climate warms, permafrost thaws and soil organic matter becomes vulnerable to greater microbial decomposition. Long-term soil warming of ice-rich permafrost can result in thermokarst formation that creates variability in environmental conditions. Consequently, plant and microbial proportional contributions to ecosystem respiration may change in response to long-term soil warming. Natural abundance δ 13 C and Δ 14 C of aboveground and belowground plant material, and of young and old soil respiration were used to inform a mixing model to partition the contribution of each source to ecosystem respiration fluxes. We employed a hierarchical Bayesian approach that incorporated gross primary productivity and environmental drivers to constrain source contributions. We found that long-term experimental permafrost warming introduced a soil hydrology component that interacted with temperature to affect old soil C respiration. Old soil C loss was suppressed in plots with warmer deep soil temperatures because they tended to be wetter. When soil volumetric water content significantly decreased in 2018 relative to 2016 and 2017, the dominant respiration sources shifted from plant aboveground and young soil respiration to old soil respiration. The proportion of ecosystem respiration from old soil C accounted for up to 39% of ecosystem respiration and represented a 30-fold increase compared to the wet-year average. Our findings show that thermokarst formation may act to moderate microbial decomposition of old soil C when soil is highly saturated. However, when soil moisture decreases, a higher proportion of old soil C is vulnerable to decomposition and can become a large flux to the atmosphere. Furthermore, as permafrost systems continue to change with climate, we must understand the thresholds that may propel these systems from a C sink to a source.
The protection of people, property, and environmental resources from extreme weather, seasonal patterns, and climate change drives the need for predictions of weather, ocean, and climate patterns that have skill and value at timescales longer than traditional 1-10-day forecasts, including outlooks spanning weeks to decades. Advancing Earth System Prediction (ESP) skill at this range of timescales requires improved observations, understanding, and modeling of the processes in the ocean boundary layer, the atmospheric boundary layer, and their interface. A new way of referring to this coupled system is the Air-Sea Transition Zone (ASTZ). The report that follows is framed by the paradigm that the ASTZ is a single entity that regulates the flow of energy and matter between the ocean and the atmosphere. The ASTZ is thus the medium through which the ocean and atmosphere respond to and influence one another across their often disparate scales of variability. ASTZ modeling, observing, and understanding needs are particularly acute because very few measurements exist over oceans, and even fewer span the entire ASTZ, even though oceans cover 70% of Earth’s surface and are the source of most of the rain and snow that falls on both the land and the oceans.
Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (the Laboratory’s) annual site environmental reports are prepared by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations, as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 3, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The following chapters in this report discuss our success in complying with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and climate conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Protection); how we monitor the movement of chemicals and radionuclides by storm water runoff and the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in deposited sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the presence, levels, and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, and soil (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radionuclide dose or risk from chemical exposure members of the public may experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment).
Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (the Laboratory’s) annual site environmental reports are prepared each year by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations, as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 4, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The following chapters in this report discuss our success in complying with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs and Analytical Data Quality); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and climate conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Protection); how we monitor the movement of chemicals and radionuclides by storm water runoff and the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in deposited sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the presence, levels, and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, soil, and vegetation (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radionuclide dose or risk from chemical exposure members of the public may experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment).
Fluctuating environmental conditions are ubiquitous in natural systems, and populations have evolved various strategies to cope with such fluctuations. The particular mechanisms that evolve profoundly influence subsequent evolutionary dynamics. One such mechanism is phenotypic plasticity, which is the ability of a single genotype to produce alternate phenotypes in an environmentally dependent context. Here, we use digital organisms (self-replicating computer programs) to investigate how adaptive phenotypic plasticity alters evolutionary dynamics and influences evolutionary outcomes in cyclically changing environments. Specifically, we examined the evolutionary histories of both plastic populations and non-plastic populations to ask: (1) Does adaptive plasticity promote or constrain evolutionary change? (2) Are plastic populations better able to evolve and then maintain novel traits? And (3), how does adaptive plasticity affect the potential for maladaptive alleles to accumulate in evolving genomes? We find that populations with adaptive phenotypic plasticity undergo less evolutionary change than non-plastic populations, which must rely on genetic variation from de novo mutations to continuously readapt to environmental fluctuations. Indeed, the non-plastic populations undergo more frequent selective sweeps and accumulate many more genetic changes. We find that the repeated selective sweeps in non-plastic populations drive the loss of beneficial traits and accumulation of maladaptive alleles, whereas phenotypic plasticity can stabilize populations against environmental fluctuations. This stabilization allows plastic populations to more easily retain novel adaptive traits than their non-plastic counterparts. In general, the evolution of adaptive phenotypic plasticity shifted evolutionary dynamics to be more similar to that of populations evolving in a static environment than to non-plastic populations evolving in an identical fluctuating environment. All natural environments subject populations to some form of change; our findings suggest that the stabilizing effect of phenotypic plasticity plays an important role in subsequent adaptive evolution.
The NEXT propulsion system is an advanced ion propulsion system presently under development that is oriented towards robotic exploration of the solar system using solar electric power. The subsystem includes an ion engine, power processing unit, feed system components, and thruster gimbal. The Prototype Model engine PM1 was subjected to qualification-level environmental testing in 2006 to demonstrate compatibility with environments representative of anticipated mission requirements. Although the testing was largely successful, several issues were identified including the fragmentation of potting cement on the discharge and neutralizer cathode heater terminations during vibration which led to abbreviated thermal testing, and generation of particulate contamination from manufacturing processes and engine materials. The engine was reworked to address most of these findings, renamed PM1R, and the environmental test sequence was repeated. Thruster functional testing was performed before and after the vibration and thermal-vacuum tests. Random vibration testing, conducted with the thruster mated to the breadboard gimbal, was executed at 10.0 Grms for 2 min in each of three axes. Thermal-vacuum testing included three thermal cycles from 120 to 215 C with hot engine re-starts. Thruster performance was nominal throughout the test program, with minor variations in a few engine operating parameters likely caused by facility effects. There were no significant changes in engine performance as characterized by engine operating parameters, ion optics performance measurements, and beam current density measurements, indicating no significant changes to the hardware as a result of the environmental testing. The NEXT PM1R engine and the breadboard gimbal were found to be well-designed against environmental requirements based on the results reported herein. The redesigned cathode heater terminations successfully survived the vibration environments. Based on the results of this test program and confidence in the engineering solutions available for the remaining findings of the first test program, specifically the particulate contamination, the hardware environmental qualification program can proceed with confidence
The U.S. electric sector is rapidly evolving, with widespread renewable energy deployment, building and transport electrification, and nuanced decarbonization policies. Climate change influences the supply and demand for electricity by altering water resources for cooling and hydropower, thermal plant efficiencies, and heating and cooling demand. This research combines global climate model data, asset-level water and streamflow modeling, and electric sector capacity expansion modeling to study climate-water-electricity interactions across myriad future climate and electricity scenarios that consider electrification and decarbonization using renewable, hydrogen, carbon capture, and nuclear technologies. Multi-model integration leads to insights into power-water sector interactions and their impacts on grid economics and environmental outcomes.
Barrier Islands are the first line of defense against tropical storms and hurricanes for coastal areas. Historically, tropical cyclonic events have had a great impact on the transgression of barrier islands, especially the Chandeleur Island chain off the eastern coast of Louisiana. These islands are of great importance, aiding in the protection of southeastern Louisiana from major storms, providing habitat for nesting and migratory bird species, and are part of the second oldest wildlife refuge in the country. In 1998, Hurricane Georges caused severe damage to the chain, prompting restoration and monitoring efforts by both federal and state agencies. Since then, multiple storm events have steadily diminished the integrity of the islands. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 thwarted all previous restoration efforts, with Hurricane Gustav in 2008 exacerbating island erosion and vegetation loss. Data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Landsat 2-4 Multispectral Scanner (MSS), and Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) will be utilized to detect land loss, island transgression, and vegetation change from 1979 to 2009. This study looks to create a more synoptic view of the transgression of the Chandeleur Islands and correlate weather and sea surface phenomena with erosion trends over the past 30 years, so that partnering organizations such as the Pontchartrain Institute for Environmental Sciences (PIES) can better monitor and address the continual change of the island chain.
Floodplain soils are vast reservoirs of organic carbon often attributed to anaerobic conditions that impose metabolic constraints on organic matter degradation. What remains elusive is how such metabolic constraints respond to dynamic flooding and drainage cycles characteristic of floodplain soils. Here, in this work, we show that microbial depolymerization and respiration of organic compounds, two rate-limiting steps in decomposition, vary spatially and temporally with seasonal flooding of mountainous floodplain soils (Gothic, Colorado, USA). Combining metabolomics and -proteomics, we found a lower abundance of oxidative enzymes during flooding coincided with the accumulation of aromatic, high-molecular weight compounds, particularly in surface soils. In subsurface soils, we found that a lower oxidation state of carbon coincided with a greater abundance of chemically reduced, energetically less favorable low-molecular weight metabolites, irrespective of flooding condition. Our results suggest that seasonal flooding temporarily constrains oxidative depolymerization of larger, potentially plant-derived compounds in surface soils; in contrast, energetic constraints on microbial respiration persist in more reducing subsurface soils regardless of flooding. Our work underscores that the potential vulnerability of these distinct anaerobic carbon storage mechanisms to changing flooding dynamics should be considered, particularly as climate change shifts both the frequency and extent of flooding in floodplains globally.
As NASA is planning to send humans deeper into space than ever before, adequate crew health and performance will be critical for mission success. Within the NASA Human Research Program (HRP), the Space Human Factors and Habitability (SHFH) team is responsible for characterizing the risks associated with human capabilities and limitations with respect to long-duration spaceflight, and for providing mitigations (e.g., guidelines, technologies, and tools) to promote safe, reliable and productive missions. SHFH research includes three domains: Advanced Environmental Health (AEH), Advanced Food Technology (AFT), and Space Human Factors Engineering (SHFE). The AEH portfolio focuses on understanding the risk of microbial contamination of the spacecraft and on the development of standards for exposure to potential toxins such as chemicals, bacteria, fungus, and lunar/Martian dust. The two risks that the environmental health project focuses on are adverse health effects due to changes in host-microbe interactions, and risks associated with exposure to dust in planetary surface habitats. This portfolio also proposes countermeasures to these risks by making recommendations that relate to requirements for environmental quality, foods, and crew health on spacecraft and space missions. The AFT portfolio focuses on reducing the mass, volume, and waste of the entire integrated food system to be used in exploration missions, and investigating processing methods to extend the shelf life of food items up to five years, while assuring that exploration crews will have nutritious and palatable foods. The portfolio also delivers improvements in both the food itself and the technologies for storing and preparing it. SHFE sponsors research to establish human factors and habitability standards and guidelines in five risk areas, and provides improved design concepts for advanced crew interfaces and habitability systems. These risk areas include: Incompatible vehicle/habitat design, inadequate human-computer interaction, inadequate critical task design, inadequate human-automation/robotic interaction, and performance errors due to training deficiencies. To address the identified research gaps within each risk, SHFH's research plan includes studies in the laboratory, in analogs, and on International Space Station (ISS). In addition to establishing and maintaining the risk-based research portfolio, SHFH is also implementing a qualitative approach to determine how we at NASA evaluate human performance. Via interviews with experts, such as trainers, flight controllers, and flight surgeons, we are collecting the metrics by which they assess human performance, evidence of performance issues, and potential or actual consequences. The Human Performance Data Project will determine what human performance data have been collected in the past at NASA, and what data should be collected in the future in order to complete our knowledgebase and reduce risks related to human factors and habitability.
Various recycling technologies are emerging to implement circular economy in plasticssupply chain systems. However, the environmental and socio-economic trade-offs of in circular economy are not well understood at a systems level. Particularly, quantifying these trade-offs as a function of end-of-life (EOL) management decisions, including transition of recycling technologies, systems level metrics such as circularity, recycled content, and the need for fossil-derived plastics are not well understood. Here, the present study addressed these research gaps by applying a systems analysis modeling approach that utilizes material flow analysis, life cycle assessment, socioeconomic data, and system optimization techniques for polyethylene terephthalate (PET) packaging supply chains in the United States. Pareto-front trade-offs between conflicting environmental and socio-economic impacts as well as those between socioeconomic impacts and circularity were explored using the epsilon constraint method. The Pareto-front trade-off analysis revealed the transition of EOL management strategies for PET packaging systems, including changes in selection of recycling technologies, to aid decision making process by quantifying studied system metrics. Transitioning from environmentally optimal to socio-economically optimal systems led to increased employment (by 17%), wages (by 26%), and revenues (by 6%) but also led to increased global warming potential (GWP; by 65%), energy consumption (by 59%), and reliance on fossil PET in the system (by 78%). Finally, the results show that there is not a unique set of recycling technologies to achieve a sustainable circular economy of PET packaging system, instead it depends on the decision maker’s objectives and targeted metrics of the system.
The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Research on human acclimation to spaceflight, including the recent NASA's Twin Study, reports complex effects of the spaceflight environment on health, with both acute and prolonged changes in multiple tissues. Spaceflight includes multiple factors such as microgravity, ionizing radiation, physiological stress, and disrupted circadian rhythms, that have been shown to contribute to pathophysiological responses that target immunity, bone and muscle integrity, cardiovascular and nervous systems. In this study, we used a well-established spaceflight model organism, Drosophila melanogaster, to assess spaceflight-associated changes on the nervous system. With 75% disease gene orthology to humans, short generation time, large sample size and ease of genetic, neuronal and behavioral studies, Drosophila is an excellent model to study nervous system dysfunction. Here, we present results from MVP-Fly-01 spaceflight mission that was launched on SpaceX CRS-14. The MVP hardware (developed by Techshot) used in this mission enabled us to have an in-flight 1g centrifuge, to distinguish the changes resulting from gravity versus those induced by other environmental factors associated with spaceflight. We observe behavioral impairments (p<0.001) and synaptic deficits, including decreased synaptic connections (p<0.05), in 3rd instar larvae which were developed in space. Furthermore, space-grown microgravity adults show a decrease in neuronal (p<0.05) and dendritic field (p<0.01) in adult brains coupled with an increased number of apoptotic cells (p<0.001) compared to in-flight 1g controls, suggesting increased neuronal loss under spaceflight conditions. In summary, we observe that altered gravity leads to gross neurological deficits. To better understand the long-term effects of spaceflight on the nervous system, longitudinal and multigenerational changes were also identified. This study will help elucidate the different approaches to prevent nervous system dysfunction in astronauts during spaceflight, while also contributing to a better understanding of the pathways that are related to some CNS disorders on Earth.
The diversity of intrinsic traits of different organic matter molecules makes it challenging to predict how they, and therefore the global carbon cycle, will respond to climate change. Here we develop an indicator of compositional-level environmental response for dissolved organic matter to quantify the aggregated response of individual molecules that positively and negatively associate with warming. We apply the indicator to assess the thermal response of sediment dissolved organic matter in 480 aquatic microcosms along nutrient gradients on three Eurasian mountainsides. Organic molecules consistently respond to temperature change within and across contrasting climate zones. At a compositional level, dissolved organic matter in warmer sites has a stronger thermal response and shows functional reorganization towards molecules with lower thermodynamic favorability for microbial decomposition. The thermal response is more sensitive to warming at higher nutrients, with increased sensitivity of up to 22% for each additional 1 mg L -1 of nitrogen loading. The utility of the thermal response indicator is further confirmed by laboratory experiments and reveals its positive links to greenhouse gas emissions.