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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2017

Characterization of Morphology using MAMA Software

The MAMA (Morphological Analysis for Material Attribution) software was developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory funded through the National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center in the Department of Homeland Security. The software allows images to be analysed and quantified. The largest project I worked on was to quantify images of plutonium oxides and ammonium diuranates prepared by the group with the software and provide analyses on the particles of each sample. Images were quantified through MAMA, with a color analysis, a lexicon description and powder x-ray diffraction. Through this we were able to visually see a difference between some of the syntheses. An additional project was to revise the manual for MAMA to help streamline training and provide useful tips to users to more quickly become acclimated to using the software. The third project investigated expanding the scope of MAMA and finding a statistically relevant baseline for the particulates through the analysis of maps in the software and using known measurements to compare the error associated with the software. During this internship, I worked on several different projects dealing with the MAMA software. The revision of the usermanual for the MAMA software was the first project I was able to work and collaborate on. I first learned how to use the software by getting instruction from a skilled user at the laboratory, Dan Schwartz, and by using the existing user manual and examples. After becoming accustomed to the program, I started to go over the manual to correct and change items that were not as useful or descriptive as they could have been. I also added in tips that I learned as I explored the software. The updated manual was also worked on by several others who have been developing the program. The goal of these revisions was to ensure the most concise and simple directions to the software were available to future users. By incorporating tricks and shortcuts that I discovered and picked up from watching other users into the user guide, I believe that anyone who utilizes the software will be able to quickly understand the best way to analyze their image and use the tools the program offers to achieve useful results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1972

Photon counting and Laguerre detection.

In this correspondence maximum-likelihood binary detection theory is applied to an incoherent optical system model employing photodetectors governed by Laguerre counting statistics. It is shown that a maximum-likelihood Laguerre detector corresponds to a count comparison over each signaling interval. Laguerre error probabilities are presented and compared with those for Poisson counting.

Gagliardi, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Rigid body mode pointing accuracy and stability criteria for an orbiting spacecraft

The effect of gravity gradient torque disturbances (which is an order of magnitude greater than the other torque disturbances and is sinusoidal with a frequency of two cycles per orbit) on pointing accuracy can be predicted very precisely. However, since the sensor noise such as star tracker and gyro inherent noise, is random, their effect can only be predicted statistically. The most common method used is computer simulation with appropriate sensor model and adjusting spacecraft control laws for minimum pointing error, as presented by Harris (1972). The general investigation outlined theoretically relates spacecraft controls to pointing accuracy in terms of the sensor noise power spectrum. The results are presented in graphical form.

Sandhu, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A second catalog of gamma ray bursts: 1978 - 1980 localizations from the interplanetary network

Eighty-two gamma ray bursts were detected between 1978 September 14 and 1980 February 13 by the experiments of the interplanetary network (Prognoz 7, Venera 11 and 12 SIGNE experiments, Pioneer Venus Orbiter, International Sun-Earth Explorer 3, Helios 2, and Vela). Sixty-five of these events have been localized to annuli or error boxes by the method of arrival time analysis. The distribution of sources is consistent with isotropy, and there is no statistically convincing evidence for the detection of more than one burst from any source position. The localizations are compared with those of two previous catalogs.

Atteia, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A correction algorithm for particle size distribution measurements made with the forward-scattering spectrometer probe

A correction algorithm for evaluating the particle size distribution measurements of atmospheric aerosols obtained with a forward-scattering spectrometer probe (FSSP) is examined. A model based on Poisson statistics is employed to calculate the average diameter and rms width of the particle size distribution. The dead time and coincidence errors in the measured number density are estimated. The model generated data are compared with a Monte Carlo simulation of the FSSP operation. It is observed that the correlation between the actual and measured size distribution is nonlinear. It is noted that the algorithm permits more accurate calculation of the average diameter and rms width of the distribution compared to uncorrected measured quantities.

Lock, James A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Statistical problems of wind-generated gravity waves arising in microwave remote sensing of surface winds

The basic geometric features of a developed sea surface affecting the accuracy of wind speed measurements by satellite instruments are reviewed. Error trends in the satellite winds are shown to be correlated with various measures of wave development. For a developed sea, the influence of the equilibrium range parameters characterizing the spectrum of wind-generated waves are derived and compared with field observations. Fluctuations in the actual number of steep wavelet events which occur within a finite surface area are shown to be an important factor of the radar backscatter if the surface area, i.e., the resolution cell, is much smaller than 1 sq km. The inner scale of the equilibrium range caused by energy dissipation by breaking waves is considered to be a major factor in determining the surface's statistical geometry and, hence, its microwave returns for all satellite sensors.

Glazman, Roman E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Concepts for conformal and body-axis attitude information for spatial awareness presented in a helmet-mounted display

A piloted simulation study has been conducted to evaluate two methods of presenting attitude information in a helmet-mounted display (HMD) for spatial awareness in a fighter airplane. One method, the body-axis concept, displayed the information relative to the body axis of the airplane. The quantitative results of this study favored the body-axis concept. Although no statistically significant differences were noted for either the pilots' understanding of roll attitude or target position, the pilots made pitch judgment errors three times more often with the conformal display. The subjective results showed the body-axis display did not cause attitude confusion, a prior concern with this display. In the posttest comments, the pilots overwhelmingly selected the body-axis display as the display of choice.

Jones, Denise R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An approach to estimate the areal rain-rate distribution from spaceborne radar by the use of multiple thresholds

Estimates of rain rate derived from a spaceborne weather radar will be most reliable over an intermediate range of values. In forming an area average of the rain rate, an alternative to the averaging of the high-resolution estimates, irrespective of their individual accuracies, is a multiple threshold approach. The method is based on the fact that the fractional area above a particular rain-rate threshold R(j) is related to the cumulative distribution of rain rates evaluated at R(j). Varying the threshold over the effective dynamic range of the radar yields the cumulative distribution function over this range. To obtain the distribution at all rain rates, a lognormal or gamma test function is selected such that the mean-square error between the test function and the measured values is minimized. Once the unknown parameters are determined, the first-order statistics of the areawide rain-rate distribution can be found. Tests of the method with data from the SPANDAR radar provide comparisons between it and the single threshold and the direct averaging approaches.

Meneghini, R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Assessing the Usefulness of AIRS Radiance Observations in a 4D-Var Assimilation Scheme Using the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) and a Stand Alone Radiative Transfer Algorithm (SARTA)

Short-term precipitation forecast skill remains poor despite further advances in numerical modeling and data analysis. Utilizing indirect observations, such as the radiance observations obtained from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), in a 4D-Var assimilation scheme may lead to a rapid improvement in the skill of 12-h QPF. In order to investigate the usefulness of AIRS observations, the adjoint code of a radiative transfer model (SARTA) is developed and linked to MM5 4D-Var system. A statistical comparison of the AIRS radiances with those calculated using the linked MMS-SARTA model is carried out to assess errors in the radiative transfer model, MM5 and AIRS data, and to develop a quality control scheme. Outliers and any bias that may exist in radiative transfer model, MM5 and AIRS data are identified. An adjoint sensitivity study, utilizing the SARTA adjoint model, is then done to identify the relative sensitivities of each spectral channel to such parameters as atmospheric temperature, pressure, and mixing ratio. Another sensitivity study is done using the MM5 alone to determine the sensitivity of the 12-h QPF to model parameters such as atmospheric temperature, pressure, and mixing ratio under various weather regimes (i.e. summertime convection, winter snowfall). Results from these two types of adjoint sensitivity studies are used to determine which AIRS channels contribute most to 12-h QPF under differing weather regimes. This information is useful when conducting 4D-Var experiments using a subset of the 2378 AIRS spectral channels. Finally, 4D-Var experiments are done to analyze the impact of the AIRS observations on the quality of the 12-h QPF results. This project falls under the data assimilation general session topic as specified by the conference organizers.

Carrier, M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Strip antenna figure errors due to support truss member length imperfections

The dependence of strip antenna steadyy state geometric errors on member length uncertainties in the supporting truss beam is studied with the Monte carlo analysis of a representative truss design. The results, presented in a format streamlined for practical use, can guide the specification for hardware fabrication of required error tolerances (for structural properties as well as member lengths), or they can aid the prediction of antenna performance if component statistics are available.

truss↗

NASA NTRS2005

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Herzog, James P.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

Bickford, Randall L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Surveillance System and Method having an Adaptive Sequential Probability Fault Detection Test

Bickford, Randall L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian Approach to the Joint Inversion of Gravity and Magnetic Data, with Application to the Ismenius Area of Mars

This viewgraph presentation reviews a Bayesian approach to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data with specific application to the Ismenius Area of Mars. Many inverse problems encountered in geophysics and planetary science are well known to be non-unique (i.e. inversion of gravity the density structure of a body). In hopes of reducing the non-uniqueness of solutions, there has been interest in the joint analysis of data. An example is the joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, with the assumption that the same physical anomalies generate both the observed magnetic and gravitational anomalies. In this talk, we formulate the joint analysis of different types of data in a Bayesian framework and apply the formalism to the inference of the density and remanent magnetization structure for a local region in the Ismenius area of Mars. The Bayesian approach allows prior information or constraints in the solutions to be incorporated in the inversion, with the "best" solutions those whose forward predictions most closely match the data while remaining consistent with assumed constraints. The application of this framework to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data on Mars reveals two typical challenges - the forward predictions of the data have a linear dependence on some of the quantities of interest, and non-linear dependence on others (termed the "linear" and "non-linear" variables, respectively). For observations with Gaussian noise, a Bayesian approach to inversion for "linear" variables reduces to a linear filtering problem, with an explicitly computable "error" matrix. However, for models whose forward predictions have non-linear dependencies, inference is no longer given by such a simple linear problem, and moreover, the uncertainty in the solution is no longer completely specified by a computable "error matrix". It is therefore important to develop methods for sampling from the full Bayesian posterior to provide a complete and statistically consistent picture of model uncertainty, and what has been learned from observations. We will discuss advanced numerical techniques, including Monte Carlo Markov

data analysis↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Challenge Posed by Geomagnetic Activity to Electric Power Reliability: Evidence from England and Wales

This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half-hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out-of-sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root-mean-square error of the out-of-sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

Forbes, Kevin F.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pion valence quark distribution at physical pion mass of N f = 2 + 1 + 1 lattice QCD

Abstract We present a state-of-the-art calculation of the unpolarized pion valence-quark distribution in the framework of large-momentum effective theory (LaMET) with improved handling of systematic errors as well as two-loop perturbative matching. We use lattice ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration at lattice spacinga≈ 0.09 fm, lattice volume 64 3 × 96,N f = 2 + 1 + 1 flavors of highly-improved staggered quarks and a physical pion mass. The LaMET matrix elements are calculated with pions boosted to momentumP z ≈ 1.72 GeV with high-statistics ofO(10 6 ) measurements. We study the pion PDF in both hybrid-ratio and hybrid-regularization-independent momentum subtraction (hybrid-RI/MOM) schemes and also compare the systematic errors with and without the addition of leading-renormalon resummation (LRR) and renormalization-group resummation (RGR) in both the renormalization and lightcone matching. The final lightcone PDF results are presented in the modified minimal-subtraction scheme at renormalization scaleμ= 2.0 GeV. We show that thex-dependent PDFs are compatible between the hybrid-ratio and hybrid-RI/MOM renormalization with the same improvements. We also show that systematics are greatly reduced by the simultaneous inclusion of RGR and LRR and that these methods are necessary if improved precision is to be reached with higher-order terms in renormalization and matching.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-Of-A-Kind Event Data Analysis

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experiment a statistically significant number of times, recording data using the same set of detectors and the same data analysis methodology. In such case experimental error includes both the range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by the detector. They are independent. It is a huge and too frequently used simplification, to assume that one can measure multiple repetitions of an identical experiment, resulting in identical true experimental value. Repetitions, as similar is it is experimentally achievable, have unavoidable built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. When modern, very sensitive and well calibrated measurement systems are used, this range is not negligible, and sometimes dominates over the measurement uncertainty. Range of true values depends on built-in differences in physics of the experiment. Stochastic physical processes result typically in a broader range of true values than non-stochastic processes do. Measurement uncertainty depends on a measurement method (properties of the detector not of the experiment). Modern measurement methods, including digital ones, frequently make the measurement uncertainty very small. When data from one–of –a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty is reported. It provides no information about the range of true experimental values, neither about reliability of a reported data point. Reliability of a data point is in general independent from its measurement uncertainty. However, in practice reliable measurement methods frequently have high measurement uncertainty, while low reliability methods are applied to limit measurement uncertainty. Comparison of reliable data with high measurement uncertainty to not so reliable data measured with low uncertainty is discussed – in different scenarios different data analysis methods are applicable. Methods for data analysis from an experiment repeated statistically significant number of times are very well developed. They do not require a detailed expertise in physics of an experiment, nor in the properties of the measurement system used, and meaning of the reported uncertainty is well understood in any scientific community. It all changes when data from one-of-a-kind experiment is analyzed. Analyst’s expertise is required both in the physics of the experiment and in all aspects of the measurement system, all possible malfunctions. Data users must remember that only measurement uncertainty is reported from any one-of-a-kind experiment. Theory with simulations may provide estimation of expected built-in differences in the experiment, and by this of expected range of true values for a given experiment; yet measurement uncertainty can never be used in place of the range of true experimental values.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

Spectral characteristics of background error covariance and multiscale data assimilation

The spatial resolutions of numerical atmospheric and oceanic circulation models have steadily increased over the past decades. Horizontal grid spacing down to the order of 1 km is now often used to resolve cloud systems in the atmosphere and sub-mesoscale circulation systems in the ocean. These fine resolution models encompass a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, across which dynamical and statistical properties vary. In particular, dynamic flow systems for small scales can become spatially localized and temporarily intermittent. An analysis shows that the background correlation length scale is larger than 75 km for streamfunctions, even for a 2-km resolution model, and larger than 25 km for water vapor mixing ratios. The theoretical analyses suggest that such correlation length scales prevent the currently used data assimilation schemes from constraining spatial scales smaller than 150 km for streamfunctions and 50 km for water vapor mixing ratios. These results highlight the necessity of fundamentally modifying the currently used data assimilation algorithm for assimilating high-resolution observations into the aforementioned fine resolution models. A multiscale methodology based on scale decomposition is suggested, and challenges are discussed.

Li, Zhijin↗