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TERRASTAR: Terrestrial application of solar technology and research

The application of solar energy to the energy crisis of the 70's and beyond is discussed in the context of energy consumption in the U.S., energy resources in the U.S., and the state-of-the-art of solar energy applications. Solar energy application concepts, such as solar farms (a term used to describe vast fields of concentrators collecting solar energy for the generation of steam to drive power turbines), an orbiting solar power station, and the conversion of solar energy into solar power for heating and cooling of individual buildings on the earth, are discussed. The report emphasizes the application of solar energy to the heating and cooling of buildings since this application seems to be more promising in the near term as far as research and development are concerned. The importance of initiating research and development on all solar application concepts is stressed as an important step in pursuing the use of solar energy. Immediate steps leading to the application of solar energy to heating and cooling of buildings are outlined to insure appreciable energy displacement through the use of solar energy by the year 2020.

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Physics of solar cosmic rays

A review of the historical development of solar cosmic ray research is presented and details concerning the solar atmosphere, the interplanetary space, and solar activity are considered, giving attention to solar-atmosphere structure, problems of radiative transfer, questions of solar magnetism, solar wind, and interplanetary plasmas. Solar flares and associated phenomena are discussed along with the generation of solar cosmic ray events, the mechanism of solar flares, the acceleration process of solar cosmic rays, the propagation of solar cosmic rays, and relations between the flow of energetic protons and solar active regions. Questions regarding the origin theory of cosmic rays are also explored, taking into account the solar origin theory and problems of flare stars.

Sakurai, K.↗

Workshop on Impulsive Solar Flares, 2nd, University of New Hampshire, Durham, Sept. 26-28, 1988, Proceedings

Papers on impulsive solar flares are presented, covering topics such as the optical properties of impulsive flares, soft X-ray spectroscopy of solar flares, the energy release process in impulsive bursts, high-velocity evaporation and a high-speed shock wave during the impulsive phase of the April 24, 1984 flare, nonpotential magnetic fields at sites of gamma-ray flares, and meter-decimeter and microwave radio observations of solar flares. Other topics include rise times in solar radio bursts, removal of the gradual component in analyses of solar impulsive bursts, ion and relativistic electron transport in solar flares, neutrons and gamma-ray emission on June 3, 1982, emission characteristics of three intense solar flares in cycle 21, and solar flare gamma-ray observations with the Hinotori satellite. Additional topics include spectra of relativistic solar proton ground-level events recorded in Antarctica, a 153-d periodicity in the occurrence of solar flares producing energetic interplanetary electrons, a search for solar neutron response in neutron monitor data, neutral beams in two-ribbon flares and in the geomagnetic tail, beam heating in solar flares, and solar flare gamma-ray line shapes.

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Solar Constant Data from Earth Radiation Budget Measurements

At present, solar total irradiance measurements are made from four satellites using electrically self calibrating pyrheliometers, as a part of the earth radiation budget measurement programs. The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) mission onboard Nimbus-7 spacecraft (Nimbus/ERB) started solar total irradiance measurements in November 1978, and is still obtaining irradiance data on every orbit, daily. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) solar monitors onboard Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 started solar total irradiance measurements in October 1984, January 1985, and October 1986, respectively. Our knowledge of solar total irradiance and its variability has grown remarkably during the past few years, as a result of the above measurements, and the high precision data obtained from Solar Maximum Mission/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor-1 (SMM/ACRIM-1). The results from a comparative study of the solar constant data available from the above missions are presented. The solar constant value derived from the sensors agree within the uncertainty associated with absolute pyrheliometers available at present. An attempt will be made to correlate the solar irradiance variability with other solar parameters. The measurements from Nimbus-7/ERB started November 1978, as the solar cycle 21 was increasing in activity. The solar luminosity reached a maximum in the spring of 1979. The irradiance then decreased slowly to a minimum which lasted from 1984 through 1986. The irradiance is presently increasing towards a new maximum. It appears that the solar constant value follow an eleven year cycle.

Mecherikunnel, A. T.↗

The Hadean, Through a Glass Telescopically: Observations of Young Solar Analogs

Investigations into the Earth's surface environment during the Hadean eon (prior to 3.8 Ga) are hampered by the paucity of the geological and geochemical record and the relative inaccessibility of better-preserved surfaces with possibly similar early histories (i.e., Mars). One approach is to observe nearby, young solar-mass stars as analogs to the Hadean Sun and its environment. A catalog of 38 G and early K stars within 25 pc was constructed based on main-sequence status, bolometric luminosity, lack of known stellar companions within 800 AU, and coronal X-ray luminosities commensurate with the higher activity of solar-mass stars <0.8 b.y. old. Spectroscopic data support the assignment of ages of 0.2 - 0.8 Ga for most of these stars. Observations of these objects will provide insight into external forces that influenced Hadean atmosphere, ocean, and surface evolution (and potential ecosystems), including solar luminosity evolution, the flux and spectrum of solar ultraviolet radiation, the intensity of the solar wind, and the intensity and duration of a late period of heavy bombardment. The standard model of solar evolution predicts a luminosity of 0.75 solar luminosity at the end of the Hadean, implying a terrestrial surface temperature inconsistent with the presence of liquid water and motivating atmospheric greenhouse models. An alternative model fo solar evolution that invokes mass loss, constructed to explain solar Li depletion, attenuates or reverses this luminosity evolution of the atmospheres of Earth and the other terrestrial planets. This model can be tested by Li abundance measurements. The continuum emission from stellar wind plasma during significant mass loss may be detectable at millimeter and radio wavelengths. The Earth (and Moon) experienced a period of intense bombardment prior to 3.8 Ga, long after accretion was completed in the inner solar system and possibly associated with the clearing of residual planetesimals in the outer solar system. Such a bombardment may have contributed volatiles and organics to the surface, but also have limited the appearacne of a biosphere. While planetary systems around solar systems cannot be detected directly with present technology, the thermal emission from the interplanetary dust generated during a similar heavy bombardment period can be. Midinfrared observations of a large uniform sample of solar analogs are used to constrain the frequency and duration of such events.

Gaidos, E. J.↗

Beyond Solar-B: MTRAP, the Magnetic Transition Region Probe

The next generation of solar missions will reveal and measure fine-scale solar magnetic fields and their effects in the solar atmosphere at heights, small scales, sensitivities, and fields of view well beyond the reach of Solar-B. The necessity for, and potential of, such observations for understanding solar magnetic fields, their generation in and below the photosphere, and their control of the solar atmosphere and heliosphere, were the focus of a science definition workshop, 'High-Resolution Solar Magnetography from Space: Beyond Solar-B,' held in Huntsville Alabama in April 2001. Forty internationally prominent scientists active in solar research involving fine-scale solar magnetism participated in this Workshop and reached consensus that the key science objective to be pursued beyond Solar-B is a physical understanding of the fine-scale magnetic structure and activity in the magnetic transition region, defined as the region between the photosphere and corona where neither the plasma nor the magnetic field strongly dominates the other. The observational objective requires high cadence (less than 10s) vector magnetic field maps, and spatially resolved spectra from the IR, visible, vacuum UV, to the EUV at high resolution (less than 50km) over a large FOV (approximately 140,000 km). A polarimetric resolution of one part in ten thousand is required to measure transverse magnetic fields of less than 30G. The latest SEC Roadmap includes a mission identified as MTRAP to meet these requirements. Enabling technology development requirements include large, lightweight, reflecting optics, large format sensors (16K x 16K pixels) with high QE at 150 nm, and extendable spacecraft structures. The Science Organizing Committee of the Beyond Solar-B Workshop recommends that: (1) Science and Technology Definition Teams should be established in FY04 to finalize the science requirements and to define technology development efforts needed to ensure the practicality of MTRAP's observational goals; (2) The necessary technology development funding should be included in Code S budgets for FY06 and beyond to prepare MTRAP for a new start no later than the nominal end of the Solar-B mission, around 2010.

Davis, John M.↗

Subgrid Scale Modeling in Solar Convection Simulations using the ASH Code

The turbulent solar convection zone has remained one of the most challenging and important subjects in physics. Understanding the complex dynamics in the solar con- vection zone is crucial for gaining insight into the solar dynamo problem. Many solar observatories have generated revealing data with great details of large scale motions in the solar convection zone. For example, a strong di erential rotation is observed: the angular rotation is observed to be faster at the equator than near the poles not only near the solar surface, but also deep in the convection zone. On the other hand, due to the wide range of dynamical scales of turbulence in the solar convection zone, both theory and simulation have limited success. Thus, cutting edge solar models and numerical simulations of the solar convection zone have focused more narrowly on a few key features of the solar convection zone, such as the time-averaged di erential rotation. For example, Brun & Toomre (2002) report computational finding of differential rotation in an anelastic model for solar convection. A critical shortcoming in this model is that the viscous dissipation is based on application of mixing length theory to stellar dynamics with some ad hoc parameter tuning. The goal of our work is to implement the subgrid scale model developed at CTR into the solar simulation code and examine how the differential rotation will be a affected as a result. Specifically, we implement a Smagorinsky-Lilly subgrid scale model into the ASH (anelastic spherical harmonic) code developed over the years by various authors. This paper is organized as follows. In x2 we briefly formulate the anelastic system that describes the solar convection. In x3 we formulate the Smagorinsky-Lilly subgrid scale model for unstably stratifed convection. We then present some preliminary results in x4, where we also provide some conclusions and future directions.

Young, Y.-N.↗

Material Interactions with Solar Wind Ion Environments

Solar wind composition is dominated by hydrogen (approx.96%) and helium (approx.3 to 4%) with a minor fraction (less than or equal to 1%) of heavy ions. Hydrogen (helium) ions impact spacecraft surfaces with energies from 0.5 to 5 keV (1.8 to 21 keV) due to variations in solar wind velocity from 300 km/s to 1000 km/sec with extremes of a few 10 s keV during periods of extremely high solar wind velocity exceeding 1000 km/sec. Mean impact energies are typically on the order of approximately 1 keV and 4 keV for hydrogen ions and helium ions, respectively. These energies are typically of the peak of the energy dependent light ion sputter yields for hydrogen and helium on many metals. In addition, light ions with kilovolt energies have been shown to produce blister (or exfoliation) damage to metal surfaces due to formation of high pressure gas bubbles within the materials when exposed to ion fluences on the order of 10(exp 16 to (10(exp 17 ions/sq cm. A number of spacecraft designs for current and future missions include gossamer polymer structures with thin metallic reflection coatings to shield instruments from the Sun or solar sail propulsion systems for use in a variety of locations in the inner solar system from 0.5 to 1 AU. In addition, there is interest in designing spacecraft for solar physics missions requiring operations as close to the Sun as 0.16 to 0.2 AU. Integrity of the metallic coatings is critical in many of these applications since degradation will result in modification of material thermal properties or exposure of polymers to solar UV photons which can compromise mission requirements. This paper will evaluate the relative contributions of sputtering and blister formation to material degradation in solar wind environments over a range of radial distances from the Sun to demonstrate where solar wind environments become important for materials selection. We will first review the physics and results from laboratory measurements of light ion sputtering, blistering, and exfoliation of metallic surfaces to establish the order of magnitude ion fluence required for significant surface damage. Solar wind ion fluence environments will then be evaluated due to variations in solar wind conditions as a function of solar cycle for varying distances from the Sun using models for radial variations in solar wind ion number density, temperature, and velocity to determine where sputtering and blistering is most likely to be an issue. Finally, ion fluence statistics for varying radial distances from the Sun will be shown to establish the mission duration and radial distances from the Sun where missions will encounter sufficient ion fluence to exhibit damage to metallic surfaces.

Minow, Joseph I.↗

Status of Solar Sail Propulsion: Moving Toward an Interstellar Probe

NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Program has developed the first-generation of solar sail propulsion systems sufficient to accomplish inner solar system science and exploration missions. These first-generation solar sails, when operational, will range in size from 40 meters to well over 100 meters in diameter and have an areal density of less than 13 grams-per-square meter. A rigorous, multiyear technology development effort culminated last year in the testing of two different 20-meter solar sail systems under thermal vacuum conditions. This effort provided a number of significant insights into the optimal design and expected performance of solar sails as well as an understanding of the methods and costs of building and using them. In a separate effort, solar sail orbital analysis tools for mission design were developed and tested. Laboratory simulations of the effects of long-term space radiation exposure were also conducted on two candidate solar sail materials. Detailed radiation and charging environments were defined for mission trajectories outside the protection of the earth's magnetosphere, in the solar wind environment. These were used in other analytical tools to prove the adequacy of sail design features for accommodating the harsh space environment. Preceding, and in conjunction with these technology efforts, NASA sponsored several mission application studies for solar sails, including one that would use an evolved sail capability to support humanity's first mission into nearby interstellar space. The proposed mission is called the Interstellar Probe. The Interstellar Probe might be accomplished in several ways. A 200-meter sail, with an areal density approaching 1 gram-per-square meter, could accelerate a robotic probe to the very edge of the solar system in just under 20 years from launch. A sail using the technology just demonstrated could make the same mission, but take significantly longer. Conventional chemical propulsion systems would require even longer flight times. Spinner sails of the type being explored by the Japanese may also be a good option, but the level of maturity in that technology is not clear. While the technology to support a 200-meter, ultralightweight sail mission is not yet in hand, the recent NASA investments in solar sail technology are an essential first step toward making it a reality. This paper will describe the status of solar sail propulsion within NASA, near-term solar sail mission applications, and the plan to advance the technology to the point where the Interstellar Probe mission can be flown.

Johnson, Les↗

The Sun to the Earth - and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics

The sun is the source of energy for life on earth and is the strongest modulator of the human physical environment. In fact, the Sun's influence extends throughout the solar system, both through photons, which provide heat, light, and ionization, and through the continuous outflow of a magnetized, supersonic ionized gas known as the solar wind. While the accomplishments of the past decade have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. The Sun to the Earth--and Beyond organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond. While the accomplishments of the past decades have answered important questions about the physics of the Sun, the interplanetary medium, and the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies, they have also highlighted other questions, some of which are long-standing and fundamental. This report organizes these questions in terms of five challenges that are expected to be the focus of scientific investigations in solar and space physics during the coming decade and beyond: Challenge 1: Understanding the structure and dynamics of the Sun's interior, the generation of solar magnetic fields, the origin of the solar cycle, the causes of solar activity, and the structure and dynamics of the corona. Challenge 2: Understanding heliospheric structure, the distribution of magnetic fields and matter throughout the solar system, and the interaction of the solar atmosphere with the local interstellar medium. Challenge 3: Understanding the space environments of Earth and other solar system bodies and their dynamical response to external and internal influences. Challenge 4: Understanding the basic physical principles manifest in processes observed in solar and space plasmas. Challenge 5: Developing a near-real-time predictive capability for understanding and quantifying the impact on human activities of dynamical processes at the Sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. This report summarizes the state of knowledge about the total heliospheric system, poses key scientific questions for further research, and presents an integrated research strategy, with prioritized initiatives, for the next decade. The recommended strategy embraces both basic research programs and targeted basic research activities that will enhance knowledge and prediction of space weather effects on Earth. The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the Sun, the heliosphere, and planetary magnetospheres and ionospheres as astrophysical objects and as laboratories for the investigation of fundamental plasma physics phenomena.

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OpenSolar: Promoting the Openness and Accessibility of Diverse Public Solar Datasets

Observational solar data is the foundation of data-driven research in solar power grid integration and power system operations. Compared to other fields in data science, the openness and accessibility of solar data is lacking, which prevents solar data science from catching up with the emerging trends of data science (e.g., deep learning). In this paper, OpenSolar, a package with both R and Python versions, is developed to enhance the openness and accessibility of publicly available solar datasets. The OpenSolar package provides access to multiple types of solar data, primarily from four datasets: (1) the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Solar Power Data for Integration Studies dataset, (2) the NREL Solar Radiation Research Laboratory dataset, (3) the Sheffield Solar-Microgen database, and (4) the Dataport database. Unlike other open solar datasets that only contain meteorological data, the four datasets in the OpenSolar package also contain behind-the-meter power data, sky images, and solar power data with satisfactory temporal and spatial resolution and coverage. The overview, quality-control methods, and potential usage of the datasets, in conjunction with sample code implementing the OpenSolar functions, are described in this paper. The package is expected to assist in bridging the gaps between the research fields of solar energy, power systems, and data science.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Analyzing the Impact of Solar Power on Multi-Hourly Thermal Generator Ramping

Solar power generation, unlike conventional forms of electricity generation, has higher variability and uncertainty in its output because solar plant output is strongly impacted by weather. As the penetration rate of solar capacity increases, grid operators are increasingly concerned about accommodating the increased variability and uncertainty that solar power provides. This paper illustrates the impacts of increasing solar power penetration on the ramping of conventional electricity generators by simulating the operation of the Independent System Operator -- New England power system. A production cost model was used to simulate the power system under five different scenarios, one without solar power and four with increasing solar power penetrations up to 18%, in terms of annual energy. The impact of solar power is analyzed on six different temporal intervals, including hourly and multi-hourly (2- to 6-hour) ramping. The results show how the integration of solar power increases the 1- to 6-hour ramping events of the net load (electric load minus solar power). The study also analyzes the impact of solar power on the distribution of multi-hourly ramping events of fossil-fueled generators and shows increasing 1- to 6-hour ramping events for all different generators. Generators with higher ramp rates such as gas and oil turbine and internal combustion engine generators increased their ramping events by 200% to 280%. For other generator types--including gas combined-cycle generators, coal steam turbine generators, and gas and oil steam turbine generators--more and higher ramping events occurred as well for higher solar power penetration levels.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Field Optical Characterization at Stillwater Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Plant

Concentrating solar power (CSP) can provide additional thermal energy to boost geothermal plant power generation. For a newly constructed solar field at a geothermal power plant site, it is critical to properly characterize its performance so that the prediction of thermal power generation can be derived to develop an optimum operating strategy for a hybrid system. In the past, laboratory characterization of a solar collector has often extended into the solar field performance model and has been used to predict the actual solar field performance, disregarding realistic impacting factors. In this work, an extensive measurement on mirror slope error and receiver position error has been performed in the field by using the optical characterization tool called Distant Observer (DO). Combining a solar reflectance sampling procedure, a newly developed solar characterization program called FirstOPTIC and public software for annual performance modeling called System Advisor Model (SAM), a comprehensive solar field optical characterization has been conducted, thus allowing for an informed prediction of solar field annual performance. The paper illustrates this detailed solar field optical characterization procedure and demonstrates how the results help to quantify an appropriate tracking-correction strategy to improve solar field performance. In particular, it is found that an appropriate tracking-offset algorithm can improve the solar field performance by about 15%. The work here provides a valuable reference for the growing CSP industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Hot‐Swappable, Fault‐Tolerant, Modular Power Converter System for Solar Photovoltaic Plants

The performance metrics of the state-of-the-art commercial solar inverters, such as system cost, operation and maintenance (O&M) cost, service life, reliability, maintainability, and power density are much lower than the target metrics needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 levelized cost of energy (LCOE) goals. To overcome the shortcomings of the existing solar inverters, this project proposed a novel Hot-Swappable, Fault-Tolerant, Modular Power Converter (HSFT-MPC) concept for solar photovoltaic (PV) plants and proved the concept through the design, fabrication, and laboratory test validation of a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype. The HSFT-MPC has the following distinct advantages over the state-of-the-art: 1) elimination of harmonic/ electromagnetic interference (EMI) filter in the inverter stage due to the novel topology, 2) lower system cost and higher power density due to the modular design, elimination of harmonic/EMI filter, and lower cooling requirement, 3) higher efficiency due to lower switching frequencies, 4) higher reliability and longer (50 years) service life due to simpler cooling and fault tolerance capability, 5) easier installation, lower O&M cost, and improved maintainability due to the modular design and hot-swappable power electronic building blocks (PEBBs), and 6) improved manufacturability due to the modular design. This project developed a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype with 25kW nominal output power, 2.4kV, 60Hz nominal AC output, lower than 5% AC output voltage total harmonic distortion, over 5 kW/L inverter power density, and 99.4% inverter peak efficiency, being tolerant to failure of single and multiple PEBBs, and capable of hot swapping of the failed PEBB(s). The HSFT-MPC enables uninterruptable operation of the solar PV plant when failure of single or multiple PEBBs or PV modules occurs. Compared with the existing solar inverters in the market, the HSFT-MPC is expected to reduce the inverter failure-caused downtime and energy losses of solar PV plants by more than 60% and 50%, respectively. Project findings have been presented at major conferences in the field and published in peer-reviewed papers, which added new knowledge to the field of power electronics for solar PV systems. A minicourse on Solar PV Systems was developed for outreach activities. The minicourse will help attract young individuals to the renewable energy profession which has a significant talent shortage. The HSFT-MPC is expected to overcome all of the shortcomings of the state-of-the-art solar inverters in terms of cost, efficiency, service life, reliability, maintainability, and manufacturability targets needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 LCOE goals. Therefore, the proposed HSFT-MPC concept has the great potential to disrupt the current solar inverter market. This project created a pathway towards industry adoption of the HSFT-MPC to help achieve 50-year service life solar PV systems. Since the solar PV plants using the HSFT-MPC will feature with higher reliability, longer service life, and easier maintenance, they are particularly useful for the rural areas with underserved populations that demand reliable and affordable clean electricity. The outcomes of the project have the strong potential to address national needs in the field of renewable energy to reduce CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector, reduce imports of energy from foreign sources, and improve energy security, efficiency, and sustainability. Since electricity is used in almost all of society’s sectors, the outcomes of the project will benefit various sectors of society and economy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Comparison between Physics-based and Polytropic MHD Models for Stellar Coronae and Stellar Winds of Solar Analogs

The development of the Zeeman–Doppler Imaging (ZDI) technique has provided synoptic observations of surface magnetic fields of low-mass stars. This led the stellar astrophysics community to adopt modeling techniques that have been used in solar physics using solar magnetograms. However, many of these techniques have been neglected by the solar community due to their failure to reproduce solar observations. Nevertheless, some of these techniques are still used to simulate the coronae and winds of solar analogs. Here we present a comparative study between two MHD models for the solar corona and solar wind. The first type of model is a polytropic wind model, and the second is the physics-based AWSOM model. We show that while the AWSOM model consistently reproduces many solar observations, the polytropic model fails to reproduce many of them, and in the cases where it does, its solutions are unphysical. Our recommendation is that polytropic models, which are used to estimate mass-loss rates and other parameters of solar analogs, must first be calibrated with solar observations. Alternatively, these models can be calibrated with models that capture more detailed physics of the solar corona (such as the AWSOM model) and that can reproduce solar observations in a consistent manner. Without such a calibration, the results of the polytropic models cannot be validated, but they can be wrongly used by others.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Best Practices of Uncertainty Estimation for the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB 1998-2015): Preprint

It is essential to apply a traceable and standard approach to determine the uncertainty of solar resource data. Solar resource data are used for all phases of solar energy conversion projects, from the conceptual phase to routine solar power plant operation, and to determine performance guarantees of solar energy conversion systems. These guarantees are based on the available solar resource derived from a measurement station or modeled data set such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Therefore, quantifying the uncertainty of these data sets provides confidence to financiers, developers, and site operators of solar energy conversion systems and ultimately reduces deployment costs. In this study, we implemented the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) 1 to quantify the overall uncertainty of the NSRDB data. First, we start with quantifying measurement uncertainty, then we determine each uncertainty statistic of the NSRDB data, and we combine them using the root-sum-of-the-squares method. The statistics were derived by comparing the NSRDB data to the seven measurement stations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Surface Radiation Budget Network, National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Solar Radiation Research Laboratory, and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains Central Facility, in Billings, Oklahoma. The evaluation was conducted for hourly values, daily totals, monthly mean daily totals, and annual mean monthly mean daily totals. Varying time averages assist to capture the temporal uncertainty of the specific modeled solar resource data required for each phase of a solar energy project; some phases require higher temporal resolution than others. Overall, by including the uncertainty of measurements of solar radiation made at ground stations, bias, and root mean square error, the NSRDB data demonstrated expanded uncertainty of 17 percent - 29 percent on hourly and an approximate 5 percent - 8 percent annual bases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗