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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Geometry and treatment of fiducial networks - Effects on GPS baseline precision in South America

A covariance analysis indicates that GPS baseline precision in northern South America is substantially improved when fiducial stations in North America are supplemented by stations in Hawaii, Australia, and New Zealand. The formal errors for a variety of fiducial networks are calculated. It is found that the systematic error of fiducial stations is dependent on the fiducial network geometry. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the baselines of northern South America are very sensitive to uncertainties in the locations of the closest fiducial stations.

Freymueller, Jeffrey T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Hydropower and PSH Capacity Expansion Modeling (Final Report on HydroWIRES D1 Improvements to Capacity Expansion Modeling)

Hydropower and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) have played a key role in providing flexible, low-carbon electricity to the U.S. electricity system for over a century. As variable generation (VG) deployment increases the demand for flexible, dispatchable generation, it is important to use all available methods for understanding how hydropower and PSH interfaces with VG in a future low-carbon grid. Capacity expansion models (CEMs) of electricity systems are often used to study future electricity scenarios, but these tools often have difficulty representing site- and technology-details of hydropower and PSH due to limited spatial, temporal, or process resolution. This report demonstrates a set of model advancements to improve hydropower and PSH representations in CEMs and other models that consider hydropower and PSH's role in electricity systems. Model advancements include new data integration to define closed-loop PSH resource availability and cost, along with site-level parameterizations of existing PSH capacity and energy storage specifications. Shifting energy across seasons for both hydropower and PSH is explored to demonstrate the potential value of long-duration storage. New representations of hydropower upgrades offer opportunities to increase dispatchability, add pumps, or independently add capacity or energy depending on what is most valuable. New model structures and data are demonstrated individually and in combination to observe their impact on model results and provide initial insights into what is most important for analysts, electricity system planners, and hydropower decision-makers to consider when assessing future roles of hydropower. Improving flexibility of existing hydropower assets has the potential to reduce CO 2 emissions through complementing VG technologies and/or improve electricity system economics by reducing the need to deploy higher-cost systems. Large-scale energy storage is also shown to provide opportunities for balancing seasonal differences in VG, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Initial analysis with a new closed-loop PSH resource and cost dataset also demonstrate the potential for new PSH deployment to offer new grid flexibility opportunities. Future analysis and modeling of hydropower's role in the U.S. and other electricity systems could include methodological improvements based on those discussed here along with sensitivity analysis to better represent current and future potential hydropower and PSH flexibility. Improvements to geospatial and site-level data can further improve the understanding of how hydropower and PSH can be upgraded and operated in response to future electricity system needs. This work lays the groundwork to use advanced planning models to explore the range of roles hydropower and PSH can play in the grid of the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Global nonlinear optimization of spacecraft protective structures design

The global optimization of protective structural designs for spacecraft subject to hypervelocity meteoroid and space debris impacts is presented. This nonlinear problem is first formulated for weight minimization of the space station core module configuration using the Nysmith impact predictor. Next, the equivalence and uniqueness of local and global optima is shown using properties of convexity. This analysis results in a new feasibility condition for this problem. The solution existence is then shown, followed by a comparison of optimization techniques. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is presented to determine the effects of variations in the systemic parameters on optimal design. The results show that global optimization of this problem is unique and may be achieved by a number of methods, provided the feasibility condition is satisfied. Furthermore, module structural design thicknesses and weight increase with increasing projectile velocity and diameter and decrease with increasing separation between bumper and wall for the Nysmith predictor.

Mog, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Parameterized Inversion Model for Soil Moisture and Biomass from Polarimetric Backscattering Coefficients

A semi-empirical algorithm for the retrieval of soil moisture, root mean square (RMS) height and biomass from polarimetric SAR data is explained and analyzed in this paper. The algorithm is a simplification of the distorted Born model. It takes into account the physical scattering phenomenon and has three major components: volume, double-bounce and surface. This simplified model uses the three backscattering coefficients ( sigma HH, sigma HV and sigma vv) at low-frequency (P-band). The inversion process uses the Levenberg-Marquardt non-linear least-squares method to estimate the structural parameters. The estimation process is entirely explained in this paper, from initialization of the unknowns to retrievals. A sensitivity analysis is also done where the initial values in the inversion process are varying randomly. The results show that the inversion process is not really sensitive to initial values and a major part of the retrievals has a root-mean-square error lower than 5% for soil moisture, 24 Mg/ha for biomass and 0.49 cm for roughness, considering a soil moisture of 40%, roughness equal to 3cm and biomass varying from 0 to 500 Mg/ha with a mean of 161 Mg/ha

soil moisture↗
DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuel Production via Catalytic Upgrading of Carbohydrates in Paper Sludge

A full-plant model was developed using correlations from a rigorous mass and energy balance and based on experimental results to determine the MFSP and its Sensitivity Analysis in the production of a hydrocarbon product from Paper Sludge. In this base case a preliminary MFSP of $5.97/GGE has been determined. This value is higher than the results reported in recent NREL reports. The difference is explained since much larger capacity plants are considered in those reports, and because we are not considering the production of co-products that bring the fuel costs down. The obtained model is being used to guide the next steps in our laboratory work since the team is now aware of which are the more sensitive process parameters "impacting" the MFSP of the final product.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

A non-intrusive parallel-in-time adjoint solver with the XBraid library

In this paper, an adjoint solver for the multigrid-in-time software library XBraid is presented. XBraid provides a non-intrusive approach for simulating unsteady dynamics on multiple processors while parallelizing not only in space but also in the time domain (XBraid: Parallel multigrid in time, http://llnl.gov/casc/xbraid). It applies an iterative multigrid reduction in time algorithm to existing spatially parallel classical time propagators and computes the unsteady solution parallel in time. Techniques from Automatic Differentiation are used to develop a consistent discrete adjoint solver which provides sensitivity information of output quantities with respect to design parameter changes. The adjoint code runs backwards through the primal XBraid actions and accumulates gradient information parallel in time. It is highly non-intrusive as existing adjoint time propagators can easily be integrated through the adjoint interface. The adjoint code is validated on advection-dominated flow with periodic upstream boundary condition. We report it provides similar strong scaling results as the primal XBraid solver and offers great potential for speeding up the overall computational costs for sensitivity analysis using multiple processors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2011

Optimizing Energy Savings from Direct-DC in U.S. Residential Buildings

An increasing number of energy efficient appliances operate on direct current (DC) internally, offering the potential to use DC from renewable energy systems directly and avoiding the losses inherent in converting power to alternating current (AC) and back. This paper investigates that potential for net-metered residences with on-site photovoltaics (PV) by modeling the net power draw of the ‘direct-DC house’ with respect to today’s typical configuration, assuming identical DC-internal loads. Power draws were modeled for houses in 14 U.S. cities, using hourly, simulated PV-system output and residential loads. The latter were adjusted to reflect a 33% load reduction, representative of the most efficient DC-internal technology, based on an analysis of 32 electricity end-uses. The model tested the effect of climate, electric vehicle (EV) loads, electricity storage, and load shifting on electricity savings; a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how future changes in the efficiencies of power system components might affect savings potential. Based on this work, we estimate that net-metered PV residences could save 5% of their total electricity load for houses without storage and 14% for houses with storage. Based on residential PV penetration projections for year 2035 obtained from the National Energy Modeling System (2.7% for the reference case and 11.2% for the extended policy case), direct-DC could save the nation 10 trillion Btu (without storage) or 40 trillion Btu (with storage). Shifting the cooling load by two hours earlier in the day (pre-cooling) has negligible benefits for energy savings. Direct-DC provides no energy savings benefits for EV charging, to the extent that charging occurs at night. However, if charging occurred during the day, for example with employees charging while at work, the benefits would be large. Direct-DC energy savings are sensitive to power system and appliance conversion efficiencies but are not significantly influenced by climate. While direct-DC for residential applications will most likely arise as a spin-off of developments in the commercial sector—because of lower barriers to market entry and larger energy benefits resulting from the higher coincidence between load and insolation—this paper demonstrates that there are substantial benefits in the residential sector as well. Among residential applications, space cooling derives the largest energy savings from being delivered by a direct-DC system. It is the largest load for the average residence on a national basis and is particularly so in high-load regions. It is also the load with highest solar coincidence.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Socially optimal replacement of conventional with electric vehicles for the US household fleet

In this study, a framework is proposed for minimizing the societal cost of replacing gas-powered household passenger cars with battery electric ones (BEVs). The societal cost consists of operational costs of heterogeneous driving patterns' cars, the government investments for charging deployment, and monetized environmental externalities. The optimization framework determines the timeframe needed for conventional vehicles to be replaced with BEVs. It also determines the BEVs driving range during the planning timeframe, as well as the density of public chargers deployed on a linear transportation network over time. We leverage datasets that represent U.S. household driving patterns, as well as the automobile and the energy markets, to apply the model. Results indicate that it takes 8 years for 80% of our conventional vehicle sample to be replaced with electric vehicles, under the base case scenario. The socially optimal all-electric driving range is 204 miles, with chargers placed every 172 miles on a linear corridor. All of the public chargers should be deployed at the beginning of the planning horizon to achieve greater savings over the years. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the timeframe for the socially optimal conversion of 80% of the sample varies from 6 to 12 years. The optimal decision variables are sensitive to battery pack and vehicle body cost, gasoline cost, the discount rate, and conventional vehicles' fuel economy. In conclusion, faster conventional vehicle replacement is achieved when the gasoline cost increases, electricity cost decreases, and battery packs become cheaper over the years.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Perioperative Use of Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory Drugs Decreases the Risk of Recurrence of Cancer After Colorectal Resection: A Cohort Study Based on Prospective Data

Background: Perioperative use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is known to reduce inflammatory response in relation to surgery. Inflammation may promote recurrence of cancer, thus inhibition by use of NSAIDs could reduce recurrence after surgery. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the association between perioperative use of NSAIDs and cancer recurrence, as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and mortality after colorectal cancer surgery. Methods: This was a cohort study based on data from a prospective clinical database, electronic medical records, and nationwide registers, and included patients from six major colorectal centers in Denmark. The primary outcome was cancer recurrence, while secondary outcomes included 5-year mortality and DFS. Results: Overall, 2308 patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2009 were included. A total of 909 patients received at least 2 days of treatment with NSAIDs, of whom 702 (77.2%) received ibuprofen and 204 (22.4%) received diclofenac. Cox regression analysis adjusting for NSAIDs resulted in decreased recurrence risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR{sub adjusted}] 0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72–0.99; p = 0.042). Competing risk analysis confirmed the finding, with an HR{sub adjusted} of 0.76 (95% CI 0.60–0.97; p = 0.026). There was no significant effect on mortality or DFS. Sensitivity analysis of the effect of ibuprofen reported an HR{sub adjusted} of 0.83 (95% CI 0.70–1.00; p = 0.047). In restricted analyses of localized disease only (Union for International Cancer Control [UICC] I–II) and elective surgery only, no effect was found (localized: HR{sub adjusted} 0.81, 95% CI 0.62–1.06, p = 0.12; elective: HR{sub adjusted} 0.85, 95% CI 0.72–1.01, p = 0.063). Conclusions: Perioperative use of NSAIDs was associated with a reduced risk of cancer recurrence after resection for colorectal cancer. No effect on 5-year mortality or DFS was found.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2012

CO{sub 2} Capture by Sub-ambient Membrane Operation

The main objective of the project was to develop a CO{sub 2} capture process based on sub-ambient temperature operation of a hollow fiber membrane. The program aims to reach the eventual DOE program goal of > 90% CO{sub 2} capture from existing PC fired power plants with < 35% increase in the cost of electricity. The project involves closed-loop testing of commercial fiber bundles under simulated process conditions to test the mechanical integrity and operability of membrane module structural component under sub ambient temperature. A commercial MEDAL 12” bundle exhibited excellent mechanical integrity for 2 months. However, selectivity was ~25% lower than expected at sub-ambient conditions. This could be attributed to a small feed to permeate leak or bundle non-ideality. To investigate further, and due to compressor flow limitations, the 12” bundle was replaced with a 6” bundle to conduct tests with lower permeate/feed ratios, as originally planned. The commercial 6” bundle was used for both parametric testing as well as long-term stability testing at sub-ambient conditions. Parametric studies were carried out both near the start and end of the long-term test. The parametric studies characterized membrane performance over a broad range of feed conditions: temperature (-25°C to -45°C), pressure (160 psig to 200 psig), and CO{sub 2} feed concentration (18% to 12%). Performance of the membrane bundle was markedly better at lower temperature (-45ºC), higher pressure (200 psig) and higher CO{sub 2} feed concentration (18%). The long-term test was conducted at these experimentally determined “optimum” feed conditions. Membrane performance was stable over 8 months at sub-ambient temperature operation. The experimentally measured high performance of the membrane bundle at sub-ambient operating conditions provides justification for interest in sub-ambient membrane processing of flue gas. In a parallel activity, the impact of contaminants (100 ppm SOx and NOx) on membrane performance was tested in the laboratory with membrane minipermeators. NO permeance is intermediate between CO{sub 2} and N{sub 2}; while both SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2} are more permeable than CO{sub 2} at cold condition. This implies that SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2} will be efficiently removed with CO{sub 2} into the membrane permeate in the proposed cold membrane process. Calculations were performed by Air Liquide Engineering (ALE) to estimate capture costs based on the proposed sub-ambient temperature membrane process for 90% CO{sub 2} capture from an air- fired coal power plant delivering 550 MW net electricity. Membrane performance in the process simulation was defined by the final parametric test results. This analysis involved refining the process simulation model, obtaining relevant capital cost estimates and using these to estimate a 20-year levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). A sensitivity analysis shows CO{sub 2} capture specific energy requirements of 216-242 kwh/T CO{sub 2} captured. The LCOE estimating methodology followed DOE/NETL study 2010/1397. This analysis indicates increases in LCOE between 48% and 53%. For most equipment, the budgetary capital cost estimates are expected to be valid within ± 20%. The most significant capital costs are due to the (i) feed compression and associated gas pretreatment and (ii) membrane system. For both items, there is a realistic chance for cost reductions in the immediate future (0-5 years) as well as long term reductions. The process continues to hold promise with anticipated cost reductions in compression and membrane operations. In particular, membrane costs could be reduced significantly by increased production volume (economy of scale) as well as optimization of bundle size and configuration for this application. PFD definition for a potential field test has been completed through (i) simulation work at DRTC, (ii) discussions with compressor manufacturers and (iii) a field visit to t e NCCC, Wilsonville, AL. The PC4 facility at the NCCC is a suitable site for a 0.1 MW scale test.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementation of a Practical Teaching Course on Protein Engineering

Protein Engineering is a highly evolved field of engineering aimed at developing proteins for specific industrial, medical, and research applications. Here, we present a practical teaching course to demonstrate fundamental techniques used to express, purify and analyze a recombinant protein produced in Escherichia coli—the enhanced green fluorescent protein (eGFP). The methodologies used for eGFP production were introduced sequentially over six laboratory sessions and included (i) bacterial growth, (ii) sonication (for cell lysis), (iii) affinity chromatography and dialysis (for eGFP purification), (iv) bicinchoninic acid (BCA) and fluorometry assays for total protein and eGFP quantification, respectively, and (v) sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) for qualitative analysis. All groups were able to isolate the eGFP from the cell lysate with purity levels up to 72%. Additionally, a mass balance analysis performed by the students showed that eGFP yields up to 46% were achieved at the end of the purification process following the adopted procedures. A sensitivity analysis was performed to pinpoint the most critical steps of the downstream processing.

Gomes, Luciana (ORCID:0000000289921097)↗
NASA NTRS1991

An initial investigation into methods of computing transonic aerodynamic sensitivity coefficients

The three dimensional quasi-analytical sensitivity analysis and the ancillary driver programs are developed needed to carry out the studies and perform comparisons. The code is essentially contained in one unified package which includes the following: (1) a three dimensional transonic wing analysis program (ZEBRA); (2) a quasi-analytical portion which determines the matrix elements in the quasi-analytical equations; (3) a method for computing the sensitivity coefficients from the resulting quasi-analytical equations; (4) a package to determine for comparison purposes sensitivity coefficients via the finite difference approach; and (5) a graphics package.

Carlson, Leland A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Mars Hybrid Propulsion System Trajectory Analysis: Crew Missions - Part I

NASAs Human spaceflight Architecture team is developing a reusable hybrid transportation architecture in which both chemical and electric propulsion systems are used to send crew and cargo to Mars destinations such as Phobos, Deimos, the surface of Mars, and other orbits around Mars. By combining chemical and electrical propulsion into a single space- ship and applying each where it is more effective, the hybrid architecture enables a series of Mars trajectories that are more fuel-efficient than an all chemical architecture without significant increases in flight times. This paper provides the analysis of the interplanetary segments of the three Evolvable Mars Campaign crew missions to Mars using the hybrid transportation architecture. The trajectory analysis provides departure and arrival dates and propellant needs for the three crew missions that are used by the campaign analysis team for campaign build-up and logistics aggregation analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the impact of mass growth, departure window, and propulsion system performance on the hybrid transportation architecture. The results and system analysis from this paper contribute to analyses of the other human spaceflight architecture team tasks and feed into the definition of the Evolvable Mars Campaign.

Chai, Patrick R.↗
DOE OSTI2018

SafeGuards Analysis

The SafeGuards Analysis (SGA) toolkit is an add-on to existing fuel cycle codes that provides safeguards measurement and evaluation modeling capabilities with associated uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis techniques. An important feature of the SGA toolbox is that any other fuel cycle or facility-level code (such as VISION, CYCLUS, et al.) can be easily modified to work with SGA. Thus SGA can incorporate any of the other available fuel cycle codes with minimal modification.

Shugart, Nicolas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Economic and environmental performance of biomass gasification for renewable natural gas production in the context of the U.S. natural gas supply

Bioenergy technologies offer potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. One such promising technology is biomass gasification, which is the conversion of biomass into renewable natural gas (RNG) for use with a natural gas combined-cycle power generation system. However, the associated economic and emission effects need to be better understood to enable optimal decision-making and avoid missed opportunities for enhancing efficiency and increasing system circularity. This analysis explores opportunities to (1) decarbonize natural-gas-based systems and (2) leverage the extensive US natural gas infrastructure to mobilize biomass resources to achieve environmental and economic benefits. Here, in this analysis, the research team used a spatially explicit biomass logistics model (integrated with relevant biomass availability, technoeconomic analysis, and life cycle assessment information) to simulate economically optimal biomass allocation for RNG production and use for decarbonization in the United States. Results show that the United States has the potential to produce 9203 million GJ of RNG within the expected range of $\$$12–30/GJ. Further analyses tested the overall RNG production system's sensitivity to economic and emissions parameters of nine different processes. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the median carbon abatement cost of RNG is most sensitive to changes in emissions associated with conversion processes and land use changes. These findings provide a deeper understanding of RNG's economic and emission potential for decision-making and guiding future research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics

Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

A techno-economic assessment of membrane distillation for treatment of Marcellus shale produced water

Membrane distillation (MD) is a promising desalination technology for treatment of high salinity shale gas produced water. Techno-economic assessment (TEA) is necessary for evaluating the economic feasibility of MD for produced water treatment as compared to other shale gas produced water management strategies. A detailed TEA for a hypothetical 0.5 million gallons per day (MGD) direct contact MD (DCMD) that concentrates produced water from 10% (100,000 mg/L) Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) to 30% salinity is presented in this study. The model is developed based on a combination of experimental results, ASPEN Plus process model, best available engineering knowledge, and cost estimates. Analysis reveals that thermal energy cost for MD operation contributes the most to total cost of treating produced water in an MD plant. Additionally, the results of sensitivity analysis reveal that feed TDS level and thermal energy price have a significant impact on total cost of treating produced water. We also explore the implications of utilizing waste heat on the economics of the MD technology for produced water treatment. Here the results reveal that the total cost of treating produced water using MD is $\$$5.70/m 3 feed which decreases significantly to $\$$0.74/m 3 feed when MD is integrated with a source of waste heat.

42 ENGINEERING↗