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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,729 records · Page 96
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

Abstract. Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable–region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is unlikely that a single evaluation measure for all variables in an IAM exists, and therefore sector-by-sector evaluation may be necessary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Search for heavy resonances decaying into two Higgs bosons or into a Higgs boson and a W or Z boson in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV

A search is presented for massive narrow resonances decaying either into two Higgs bosons, or into a Higgs boson and a W or Z boson. The decay channels considered are $ \mathrm{H}\mathrm{H}\to \mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}}{\tau}^{+}{\tau}^{-} $ and $ \mathrm{V}\mathrm{H}\to \mathrm{q}\overline{\mathrm{q}}{\tau}^{+}{\tau}^{-} $ , where H denotes the Higgs boson, and V denotes the W or Z boson. This analysis is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the CMS Collaboration, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{−1}$. For the TeV-scale mass resonances considered, substructure techniques provide ways to differentiate among the hadronization products from vector boson decays to quarks, Higgs boson decays to bottom quarks, and quark- or gluon-induced jets. Reconstruction techniques are used that have been specifically optimized to select events in which the tau lepton pair is highly boosted. The observed data are consistent with standard model expectations and upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the product of cross section and branching fraction for resonance masses between 0.9 and 4.0 TeV. Exclusion limits are set in the context of bulk radion and graviton models:spin-0 radion resonances are excluded below a mass of 2.7 TeV at 95% confidence level. In the spin-1 heavy vector triplet framework, mass-degenerate W′ and Z′ resonances with dominant couplings to the standard model gauge bosons are excluded below a mass of 2.8 TeV at 95% confidence level. These are the first limits for massive resonances at the TeV scale with these decay channels at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Role of Airborne Ice Nucleating Particles in Primary and Secondary Ice Formation Processes in Convective Midlatitude Clouds

Abstract Formation of ice in mixed-phase clouds may proceed via primary nucleation and secondary ice production (SIP). Primary nucleation involves the presence of ice nucleating particles (INPs), while SIP follows primary nucleation, resulting in ice crystal number concentrations N ice exceeding the number of INPs. The ice formation pathways in young congestus clouds are not well understood nor are the environmental conditions favorable for the onset of SIP. Coincident airborne measurements of INPs and N ice collected during the Secondary Production of Ice in Cumulus Experiment (SPICULE) campaign over the U.S. central Great Plains are reported for young congestus clouds. Number concentrations of INPs and N ice at temperatures between −10° and −20°C were used to categorize whether SIP was active in each analyzed cloud pass. Observational data suggested that fragmentation of freezing droplets (FFDs) was occurring and the most likely SIP mechanism for ice enhancement during the early stages of the sampled clouds, where higher cloud-base temperatures and stronger updrafts produced conditions favorable for the onset of FFD. Simple model simulations of a congestus cloud were used to compare predictions of N ice from newly implemented SIP mechanisms (including FFD) alongside those from the existing Hallett–Mossop (HM) mechanism. Although predicted N ice , when all SIP mechanisms were active, was in good agreement with observations, the dominant SIP mechanism in the model was predicted to be HM. The rate of heterogeneous freezing in raindrops was likely inhibiting realistic FFD rates in the simulated cloud. These discrepancies between the observations and simulations underscore the need for extended laboratory studies to formulate improved model representations of SIP in convective clouds.

Patnaude, Ryan J. [Department of Atmospheric Scien↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Attraction Indian Buffet Distribution

We propose the attraction Indian buffet distribution (AIBD), a distribution for binary feature matrices influenced by pairwise similarity information. Binary feature matrices are used in Bayesian models to uncover latent variables (i.e., features) that explain observed data. The Indian buffet process (IBP) is a popular exchangeable prior distribution for latent feature matrices. In the presence of additional information, however, the exchangeability assumption is not reasonable or desirable. The AIBD can incorporate pairwise similarity information, yet it preserves many properties of the IBP, including the distribution of the total number of features. Thus, much of the interpretation and intuition that one has for the IBP directly carries over to the AIBD. A temperature parameter controls the degree to which the similarity information affects feature-sharing between observations. Unlike other nonexchangeable distributions for feature allocations, the probability mass function of the AIBD has a tractable normalizing constant, making posterior inference on hyperparameters straight-forward using standard MCMC methods. A novel posterior sampling algorithm is proposed for the IBP and the AIBD. We demonstrate the feasibility of the AIBD as a prior distribution in feature allocation models and compare the performance of competing methods in simulations and an application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

The rate of binary black hole mergers inferred from advanced LIGO observations surrounding GW150914

A transient gravitational-wave signal, GW150914, was identified in the twin Advanced LIGO detectors on 2015 September 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC. To assess the implications of this discovery, the detectors remained in operation with unchanged configurations over a period of 39 days around the time of the signal. At the detection statistic threshold corresponding to that observed for GW150914, our search of the 16 days of simultaneous two-detector observational data is estimated to have a false-alarm rate (FAR) of <4.9×10{sup −6} yr{sup −1}, yielding a p-value for GW150914 of <2×10{sup −7}. Parameter estimation follow-up on this trigger identifies its source as a binary black hole (BBH) merger with component masses (m{sub 1},m{sub 2})=(36{sub −4}{sup +5},29{sub −4}{sup +4}) M{sub ⊙} at redshift z=0.09{sub −0.04}{sup +0.03} (median and 90% credible range). Here, we report on the constraints these observations place on the rate of BBH coalescences. Considering only GW150914, assuming that all BBHs in the universe have the same masses and spins as this event, imposing a search FAR threshold of 1 per 100 years, and assuming that the BBH merger rate is constant in the comoving frame, we infer a 90% credible range of merger rates between 2--53 Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1} (comoving frame). Incorporating all search triggers that pass a much lower threshold while accounting for the uncertainty in the astrophysical origin of each trigger, we estimate a higher rate, ranging from 13--600 Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1} depending on assumptions about the BBH mass distribution. All together, our various rate estimates fall in the conservative range 2--600 Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1982

Investigation of Antarctic crust and upper mantle using MAGSAT and other geophysical data

Antarctica is the perfect proving ground for testing data reduction procedures which are alternatives to the standard procedure employing polynomial fitting. Unreduced data (observed values minus corefield model theo each pass) were averaged in 3 degree bins. The resulting map was then high pass filtered using a finite Fourier transform filter so that spectral peaks between 4200 km and 5280 km were diminished by 1/3, peaks corresponding to wavelengths greater than or equal to 5280 km were diminished by 1/2, and the d.c. component was set equal to zero. The surface subtracted in this way differs from the polynomials used in the standard method in that it is static over the 5 north data window. The map produced is presented and the effects of the static model are compared to those of the dynamic mode.

Bentley, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Empirical and modeled synoptic cloud climatology of the Arctic Ocean

A set of cloud cover data were developed for the Arctic during the climatically important spring/early summer transition months. Parallel with the determination of mean monthly cloud conditions, data for different synoptic pressure patterns were also composited as a means of evaluating the role of synoptic variability on Arctic cloud regimes. In order to carry out this analysis, a synoptic classification scheme was developed for the Arctic using an objective typing procedure. A second major objective was to analyze model output of pressure fields and cloud parameters from a control run of the Goddard Institue for Space Studies climate model for the same area and to intercompare the synoptic climatatology of the model with that based on the observational data.

Barry, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

An experimental study of counter-rotating cores in elliptical galaxies

Recent observational studies (Franx and Illingworth 1987; Jedrzejewski and Schechter 1988; Bender 1988; Illingworth and Franx 1989) have shown that some elliptical galaxies have a small region near the center that rotates in the opposite direction from the outer parts of the galaxy. Often the rotation in the central part is much faster than that in the outer part. A few other galaxies show a small region near the center that rotates in the same direction as the rest of the galaxy, but much faster. Either way, the part near the center that shows a strange pattern of rotation (the 'core') has been interpreted as a distinct dynamical subsystem. Very briefly, the observational data seem to be that anomalies show up in rotation curves near the centers of some elliptical galaxies and that galaxies with these strange rotational properties do not show a photometric signature: there are no noticeable bumps in the brightness profile and no unusual shapes of isophotal contours that would suggest an excess of matter concentrated near the center. No strong color variations have been reported. The puzzle is to learn what we can about elliptical galaxies in general, and about galaxies with strange central regions in particular, from these observational facts. The authors' approach is experimental. They make a guess about the form of the dynamically distinct subsystem, and then build a galaxy model to test experimental consequences such as the amount of matter required to produce observable effects and the length of time over which these effects would remain observable. They sidestep questions about how the galaxy might have gotten to be that way in the first place. That gives them more freedom to explore a variety of suggestions about what kind of dynamical system might give rise to the observed rotational patterns.

Miller, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Search for heavy resonances decaying into two Higgs bosons or into a Higgs boson and a W or Z boson in proton-proton collisions at 13 TeV

A search is presented for massive narrow resonances decaying either into two Higgs bosons, or into a Higgs boson and a W or Z boson. The decay channels considered are HH$\to \mathrm{b\overline{b}}\tau^{+}\tau^{-}$ and VH$ \to \mathrm{q\overline{q}}\tau^{+}\tau^{-}$, where H denotes the Higgs boson, and V denotes the W or Z boson. This analysis is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions collected at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the CMS Collaboration, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$. For the TeV-scale mass resonances considered, substructure techniques provide ways to differentiate among the hadronization products from vector boson decays to quarks, Higgs boson decays to bottom quarks, and quark- or gluon-induced jets. Reconstruction techniques are used that have been specifically optimized to select events in which the tau lepton pair is highly boosted. The observed data are consistent with standard model expectations and upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the product of cross section and branching fraction for resonance masses between 0.9 and 4.0 TeV. Exclusion limits are set in the context of bulk radion and graviton models: spin-0 radion resonances are excluded below a mass of 2.7 TeV at 95% confidence level. In the spin-1 heavy vector triplet framework, mass-degenerate W' and Z' resonances with dominant couplings to the standard model gauge bosons are excluded below a mass of 2.8 TeV at 95% confidence level. There are the first limits for these decay channels at $\sqrt{s}=$ 13 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parameterization of Vertical Cloud Distribution from C3M and MERRA Data Using ML Method

Clouds play a key role in regulating the hydrological cycle and the Earth's radiative energy budget. However, global climate models (GCMs) with a horizontal grid spacing on the order of 100 km have limitations in representing sub-grid cloud dynamics with spatial scales on the order of 1 km, leading to potential uncertainties in cloud radiative feedback on the global scale. In our research, we will leverage the capabilities of Deep Machine Learning (DML) methods to construct parameterizations of sub-grid volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), which is the frequency of occurrence on a grid volume accumulated in the horizontal and vertical directions. Our investigation delves into the intricate relationship between VCF obtained from the NASA CALIPSO-CloudSat-CERES-MODIS (CCCM) satellite observation data and 3-D MERRA-2 reanalysis meteorological profiling data (e.g., wind, relative humidity, temperature). Through a comprehensive one-year data training utilizing the Sequence to Sequence DML method, we have successfully disentangled the complicated cloud formation dynamics across diverse meteorological conditions through a day-to-day analysis framework. Preliminary findings reveal promising statistical agreements in geographical and vertical distributions and seasonal variations of volumetric cloud fraction between ML prediction and satellite measurements. These results underscore the aptitude of our DML model to discern underlying cloud physical processes and accurately represent sub-grid cloud formation dynamics. Additionally, we have also employed trained neural network to analyze uncertainties arising from errors in meteorological data, further enhancing the robustness of our VCF parameterization.

Shan Zeng↗
DOE OSTI2014

Monitoring the variability of intrinsic absorption lines in quasar spectra , ,

We have monitored 12 intrinsic narrow absorption lines (NALs) in five quasars and seven mini-broad absorption lines (mini-BALs) in six quasars for a period of 4-12 yr (1-3.5 yr in the quasar rest-frame). We present the observational data and the conclusions that follow immediately from them, as a prelude to a more detailed analysis. We found clear variability in the equivalent widths (EWs) of the mini-BAL systems but no easily discernible changes in their profiles. We did not detect any variability in the NAL systems or in narrow components that are often located at the center of mini-BAL profiles. Variations in mini-BAL EWs are larger at longer time intervals, reminiscent of the trend seen in variable BALs. If we assume that the observed variations result from changes in the ionization state of the mini-BAL gas, we infer lower limits to the gas density ∼10{sup 3}-10{sup 5} cm{sup –3} and upper limits on the distance of the absorbers from the central engine of the order of a few kiloparsecs. Motivated by the observed variability properties, we suggest that mini-BALs can vary because of fluctuations of the ionizing continuum or changes in partial coverage while NALs can vary primarily because of changes in partial coverage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Active Asteroid P/2017 S5 (ATLAS)

Observations of active asteroid P/2017 S5 when near perihelion reveal the ejection of large (10{sup 2}–10{sup 4} μm) particles at 0.2–2 m s{sup −1} speeds, with estimated mass-loss rates of a few kg s{sup −1}. The protracted nature of the mass loss (continuous over ∼150 days) is compatible with a sublimation origin, meaning that this object is likely an ice-bearing main-belt comet. Equilibrium sublimation of exposed water ice covering as little as 0.1 km{sup 2} can match the data. Observations a year after perihelion show the object in an inactive state from which we deduce a nucleus effective radius 450{sub −60}{sup +100} m (albedo 0.06 ± 0.02 assumed). The gravitational escape speed from a body of this size is just ∼0.3 m s{sup −1}, comparable to the inferred ejection speed of the dust. Time-series photometry provides tentative evidence for rapid rotation (lightcurve period 1.4 hr) that may also play a role in the loss of mass and which, if real, is a likely consequence of spin-up by sublimation torques. P/2017 S5 shares both physical and orbital similarities with the split active asteroid pair P/2016 J1-A and J1-B, and all three objects are likely members of the ∼7 Myr old, collisionally produced, Theobalda family.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Defining the IBL and Gamma-Ray Absorption

We calculate the intensity and photon spectrum of the intergalactic background light (IBL) as a function of redshift using an approach based on observational data obtained in many different wavelength bands from local to deep galaxy surveys. Our empirically based approach allows us, for the first time, to obtain a completely model independent determination of the IBL and to quantify its uncertainties. Using our results on the IBL, we then place 68% confidence upper and lower limits on the opacity of the universe to gamma-rays, independent of previous constraints that were obtained by making theoretical assumptions. We then compare our results with measurements of the extragalactic background light and upper limits obtained from observations made by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope.

Stecker, Floyd↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating Processes Controlling Arctic Atmospheric Aerosol Sources, Aging, and Mixing States (Final Report)

Atmospheric aerosols play critical roles in the Earth’s energy budget, directly by scattering or absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation and indirectly by serving as seeds (nuclei) for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation and by depositing on snow and ice surface, thereby changing the surface albedo. These effects are dependent on aerosol particle size and chemical composition and impact the hydrological cycle as well. This project provided single-particle size and chemical composition measurements across the entire annual cycle in the high Arctic and in the Alaskan Arctic during fall – winter, addressing the most significant gaps in Arctic aerosol observational data. These needs were based on recent rapid sea ice loss across the entire Arctic, as well as the major annual delays in sea ice freeze-up during fall in the Chukchi Sea and increased wintertime sea ice fracturing in the Beaufort Sea, both off the North Slope of Alaska. Two DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns were conducted for atmospheric aerosol sampling. The Aerosols during the Polar Utqiagvik Night (APUN – ‘snow on ground’ in Iñupiaq) ARM field campaign at Utqagivik, Alaska was conducted from Oct. 28 – Dec. 22, 2018. Aerosol sizing instrumentation and a single-particle mass spectrometer were successfully deployed for size-resolved number concentration measurements and measurements of individual particle size and chemical composition, respectively. These results show the influence of locally-produced sea spray aerosol, with high cloud-forming potential, due to delayed sea ice freeze-up in the fall. During the 2019‐2020 international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, daily atmospheric aerosol particles were collected aboard the German icebreaker Polarstern in the Central Arctic from Nov. 2019 – Oct. 2020. Sea salt aerosol and marine organics were observed year-round during MOSAiC with varying morphologies and sources. These findings are important because most Arctic models do not include a sea spray aerosol source, despite this source increasing with declining sea ice extent. In addition to collecting new samples and data, this project also conducted further analysis of previously collected single-particle chemical composition measurements within the North Slope of Alaska oil fields and at Utqiaġvik, AK, during Aug. – Sep. 2015 and 2016 field campaigns. This work resulted in the discovery of chemical reactions of oil field combustion emissions occurring within fog droplets across the North Slope of Alaska and forming secondary aerosol, showing the impact of Arctic oil field emissions beyond black carbon aerosol and greenhouse gases. In addition, the distribution of chemical species across the aerosol population within the oil fields was quantified, using these data and a previously development framework. We also presented the first ambient evidence of the collision of two atmospheric particles resulting in formation of an organic-coated ammonium sulfate particle of marine origin, which has implications for cloud formation with declining sea ice extent. Overall, this project has elucidated connections between seawater biogeochemistry, resource extraction activities, atmospheric composition, clouds, and the energy budget of the Arctic region. The results of this project are expected to improve weather and sea ice forecasting for security and development in the Arctic and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones on Future U.S. Offshore Wind Energy

Over 60 participants, including government officials, regulators, certification bodies, national laboratory researchers, academia, and industry representatives, gathered in person twice for a comprehensive discussion on the impacts of extreme weather on large-scale deployment of offshore wind energy for the U.S. The dialogue focused on addressing modeling challenges, the need for detailed observational data, refining risk assessment methodologies, and understanding the implications of climate change.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Non-stationary Return Levels of CMIP5 Multi-model Temperature Extremes

The objective of this study is to evaluate to what extent the CMIP5 climate model simulations of the climate of the twentieth century can represent observed warm monthly temperature extremes under a changing environment. The biases and spatial patterns of 2-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year return levels of the annual maxima of monthly mean temperature (hereafter, annual temperature maxima) from CMIP5 simulations are compared with those of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) observational data considered under a non-stationary assumption. The results show that CMIP5 climate models collectively underestimate the mean annual maxima over arid and semi-arid regions that are most subject to severe heat waves and droughts. Furthermore, the results indicate that most climate models tend to underestimate the historical annual temperature maxima over the United States and Greenland, while generally disagreeing in their simulations over cold regions. Return level analysis shows that with respect to the spatial patterns of the annual temperature maxima, there are good agreements between the CRU observations and most CMIP5 simulations. However, the magnitudes of the simulated annual temperature maxima differ substantially across individual models. Discrepancies are generally larger over higher latitudes and cold regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring fracture dilation and shear slip from surface deformation utilising trained surrogate models

An important task in energy and CO 2 storage (sequestration) in the subsurface is to verify that the surrounding fractures and faults are not activated, acting as leakage pathways. This is achievable through effective and efficient Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MMV) plans. In this work, two surrogate models are trained to captures dilation (opening) and shear deformation of fractures, and the associated surface deformation. The trained surrogate model, based on conditional Generative-Adversarial Networks (cGAN) receives fracture apertures from dilational fractures together with fracture slips from shear fractures and predicts the combined surface deformation. An inversion algorithm based on Bayesian framework is proposed to identify the geometry of both types of fractures, as well as volume of dilational fractures and deformation moment induced by shear fractures, all from the measured surface deformation data. The inversion algorithm utilises the Differential Evolution (DE) optimisation technique that has the superior performance in finding the global minimum of cost function. The proposed surrogate-assisted inversion successfully inferred the unknown dip, dip direction and the volume of the dilational fractures as well as the induced deformation moment in shear fractures. The model was further tested for the inversion of a field hydraulic fracturing tilt dataset applying different scenarios with varying unknowns to show the model's performance, as well as incorporating shear deformation for better match with the observed data.

Dilation and shear↗
DOE OSTI2017

Outer midplane scrape-off layer profiles and turbulence in simulations of Alcator C-Mod inner-wall limited discharges

A region of steep plasma gradients, the so-called ”narrow-feature”, has been found in the near scrape-off layer (SOL) of inner-wall limited (IWL) discharges. Dedicated IWL discharges were carried out in Alcator C-Mod [E.S. Marmar et al., Nucl. Fusion 55, (2015)] to study this phenomenon, allowing detailed observations of the plasma profiles and fluctuations. Langmuir probe (LP) measurements show a clear two decay length n e and T e profile structure at the outer midplane. The Gas-Puff Imaging (GPI) diagnostic shows large turbulent fluctuations across the last closed flux-surface, hence supporting the hypothesis that turbulent phenomena play a role in setting the profile steepness. We have carried out the flux-driven non-linear turbulence simulations of two C-Mod discharges which allows a three-way comparison between LP, GPI, and simulation data. Observations and simulations correlate the steep gradient region characterizing the narrow feature with sheared poloidal flows and a deviation of the plasma potential from its floating value. Furthermore, the E x B shear rate exceeds the linear ballooning growth rate, indicating that the narrow feature could result from the effects of sheared flows, although causality could not be established. The fluctuation level in the narrow feature remains of order unity across the entire SOL, indicating that the transport reduction in the near-SOL cannot result from a simple quench rule.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗