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At least 1,729 records · Page 96

Evolution of cosmic string networks

A discussion of the evolution and observable consequences of a network of cosmic strings is given. A simple model for the evolution of the string network is presented, and related to the statistical mechanics of string networks. The model predicts the long string density throughout the history of the universe from a single parameter, which researchers calculate in radiation era simulations. The statistical mechanics arguments indicate a particular thermal form for the spectrum of loops chopped off the network. Detailed numerical simulations of string networks in expanding backgrounds are performed to test the model. Consequences for large scale structure, the microwave and gravity wave backgrounds, nucleosynthesis and gravitational lensing are calculated.

Albrecht, Andreas↗

Physics constrained learning for data-driven inverse modeling from sparse observations

Deep neural networks (DNN) have been used to model nonlinear relations between physical quantities. Those DNNs are embedded in physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDE) and trained by minimizing a loss function that measures the discrepancy between predictions and observations in some chosen norm. This loss function often includes the PDE constraints as a penalty term when only sparse observations are available. As a result, the PDE is only satisfied approximately by the solution. However, the penalty term typically slows down the convergence of the optimizer for stiff problems. We present a new approach that trains the embedded DNNs while numerically satisfying the PDE constraints. We develop an algorithm that enables differentiating both explicit and implicit numerical solvers in reverse-mode automatic differentiation. This allows the gradients of the DNNs and the PDE solvers to be computed in a unified framework. We demonstrate that our approach enjoys faster convergence and better stability in relatively stiff problems compared to the penalty method. Furthermore, our approach allows for the potential to solve and accelerate a wide range of data-driven inverse modeling, where the physical constraints are described by PDEs and need to be satisfied accurately.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integration of communications and tracking data processing simulation for space station

A simplified model of the communications network for the Communications and Tracking Data Processing System (CTDP) was developed. It was simulated by use of programs running on several on-site computers. These programs communicate with one another by means of both local area networks and direct serial connections. The domain of the model and its simulation is from Orbital Replaceable Unit (ORU) interface to Data Management Systems (DMS). The simulation was designed to allow status queries from remote entities across the DMS networks to be propagated through the model to several simulated ORU's. The ORU response is then propagated back to the remote entity which originated the request. Response times at the various levels were investigated in a multi-tasking, multi-user operating system environment. Results indicate that the effective bandwidth of the system may be too low to support expected data volume requirements under conventional operating systems. Instead, some form of embedded process control program may be required on the node computers.

Lacovara, Robert C.↗

An open-source framework for balancing computational speed and fidelity in production cost models

Studies of bulk power system operations need to incorporate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, especially around exposure to weather and climate variability and extremes, but this remains a computational modeling challenge. Commercial production cost models (PCMs) have shorter runtimes, but also important limitations (opacity, license restrictions) that do not fully support stochastic simulation. Open-source PCMs represent a potential solution. They allow for multiple, simultaneous runs in high-performance computing environments and offer flexibility in model parameterization. Yet, developers must balance computational speed (i.e. runtime) with model fidelity (i.e. accuracy). In this paper, we present Grid Operations (GO), a framework for instantiating open-source, scale-adaptive PCMs. GO allows users to search across parameter spaces to identify model versions that appropriately balance computational speed and fidelity based on experimental needs and resource limits. Results provide generalizable insights on how to navigate the fidelity and computational speed tradeoff through parameter selection. We show that models with coarser network topologies can accurately mimic market operations, sometimes better than higher-resolution models. It is thus possible to conduct large simulation experiments that characterize operational risks related to climate and weather extremes while maintaining sufficient model accuracy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Continuous system modeling

A comprehensive and systematic introduction is presented for the concepts associated with 'modeling', involving the transition from a physical system down to an abstract description of that system in the form of a set of differential and/or difference equations, and basing its treatment of modeling on the mathematics of dynamical systems. Attention is given to the principles of passive electrical circuit modeling, planar mechanical systems modeling, hierarchical modular modeling of continuous systems, and bond-graph modeling. Also discussed are modeling in equilibrium thermodynamics, population dynamics, and system dynamics, inductive reasoning, artificial neural networks, and automated model synthesis.

Cellier, Francois E.↗

Landsat 8 monitoring of multi-depth suspended sediment concentrations in Lake Erie’s Maumee River using machine learning

Satellite remote sensing has been widely used to map suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in waterbodies. However, due to the complexity of sediment-water interactions, it has been difficult to derive linear and non-linear regression equations to reliably predict SSC, especially when trying to estimate depth of integrated sediment. Herein, this study uses Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager) sensor to map SSC within the Maumee River in Ohio, USA, at multiple depth intervals (15, 61, 91, and 182 cm). Simple linear least squares regression (LLSR), and three common machine learning models: random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), and model averaged neural network (MANN) were used to estimate SSC at the depth intervals. All machine learning models significantly outperformed LLSR while RF performed the best. In both RF and MANN, R2 (coefficient of determination) increases with depth with a maximum R2 of 0.89 and 0.83, respectively, at a depth of 0–182 cm. The results show that machine learning models can implement nonlinear relationships that produce better predictions than traditional linear regression methods in estimating depth integrated SSC, especially when samples are limited.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A Coupled Deep Learning Model for Estimating Surface NO 2 Levels from Remote Sensing Data: 15-Year Study Over the Contiguous United States

This study proposes a novel two-step deep learning (DL) model for estimating surface NO 2 concentrations using satellite data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2005 to 2019. The first phase of the model uses partial convolutional neural network (PCNN), an advanced DL model that accurately imputes gaps between surface NO 2 stations and creates 5,478 daily-mean NO 2 grids (PCNN-NO 2 ) of the 2005-2019 period over the study area. We then feed the PCNN-NO 2 , along with other predictor variables, into a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate surface NO 2 levels, achieving exceptional performance with a correlation coefficient of 0.975 to 0.978, a mean absolute bias of 0.99 ppb to 1.38 ppb, and a root mean square error of 1.47 ppb to 1.97 ppb. Spatial cross-validation results also indicate strong spatial performance of PCNN-DNN surface NO 2 estimates. In addition to its accurate estimates, the PCNN-DNN model consistently generates estimated NO 2 grids without any missing values, improving the quality of various applications such as emission reduction strategies and public health studies. Between 2005 and 2019, the 5,478 daily estimated NO 2 grids over the CONUS reveal significant reductions in NO 2 levels in fourteen major urban environments: Washington D.C. (-43%), New York (-45%), Los Angeles (-38%), Chicago (-25%), Boston (-43%), Houston (-34%), Dallas (-40%), Philadelphia (-41%), Phoenix (-38%), Detroit (-20%), Denver (-23%), Atlanta (-0.7%), Cincinnati (-38%), and Pittsburgh (-56%). Furthermore, the study shows that the denser urban regions that in-situ stations are installed in, the higher the difference between in-situ observations and regional-mean NO 2 levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Failures Using a Stochastic Interaction Graph with Eigen-analysis

In studies on complex network systems using graph theory, eigen-analysis is typically performed on an undirected graph model of the network. However, when analyzing cascading failures in a power system, the interactions among failures suggest the need for a directed graph beyond the topology of the power system to model directions of failure propagation. To accurately quantify failure interactions for effective mitigation strategies, this paper proposes a stochastic interaction graph model and associated eigen-analysis. Different types of modes on failure propagations are defined and characterized by the eigenvalues of a stochastic interaction matrix, whose absolute values are unity, zero, or in between. Finding and interpreting these modes helps identify the probable patterns of failure propagation, either local or widespread, and the participating components based on eigenvectors. Then, by lowering the failure probabilities of critical components highly participating in a mode of widespread failures, cascading can be mitigated. Here, the validity of the proposed stochastic interaction graph model, eigen-analysis and the resulting mitigation strategies is demonstrated using simulated cascading failure data on an NPCC 140-bus system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Developing Multi-Gene CRISPRa/I Programs to Accelerate DBTL Cycles in ABF Hosts Engineered for Chemical Production (CRADA 468)

Bacterial metabolism is comprised of large and complex gene networks that can produce valuable chemical products. Sophisticated organism engineering efforts are required to optimize production of high-value compounds from these networks. In principle, synthetic multi-gene transcriptional programs could be constructed to reengineer these networks for efficient industrial chemical production. In practice, however, our incomplete ability to understand and model the underlying networks, combined with our limited ability to predictably control the expression of multiple genes makes achieving this goal difficult. To overcome these challenges, we will combine new CRISPR-Cas multi-gene expression programs with computational modeling, machine learning, and multi-omics data to enhance the efficacy of design-build-test-learn (DBTL) cycles. For industrially promising microorganisms in early stages of development, creating technologies for rapidly engineering complex multi-gene programs could be transformative for accelerating data- and model-driven strain design. New CRISPR-Cas tools allow programmable gene activation (CRISPRa) or repression (CRISPRi) at multiple genes simultaneously, using the catalytically inactive Cas9 protein (dCas9) with guide RNAs that recognize DNA targets through predictable Watson-Crick base pairing. To enable accelerated DBTL cycles, we will combine these technologies with advanced Agile BioFoundry (ABF) capabilities for multi-omics data collection and machine learning. We will demonstrate the immediate applicability of these tools by rapidly improving the production of an industrial aromatic in multiple ABF organisms. We recently identified and optimized new transcriptional activators that can be linked to programmable CRISPR-Cas DNA binding domains to activate gene expression in E. coli. We can now use these CRISPRa tools as generalizable trans-acting regulators for combinatorial multi-gene expression tuning that can be easily transferred to new pathways and networks without additional genome engineering. We anticipate these tools will also transfer to new hosts. We have recently found that CRISPRa systems developed in E. coli can be readily ported to Pseudomonas putida, suggesting that multi-gene CRISPRa/i programs for diverse ABF organisms may be within reach.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multistage economic MPC for systems with a cyclic steady state: A gas network case study

Multistage model predictive control (MPC) provides a robust control strategy for dynamic systems with uncertainties and a setpoint tracking objective. Moreover, extending MPC to minimize an economic cost instead of tracking a pre-calculated optimal setpoint improves controller performance. This paper presents a novel multistage economic nonlinear model predictive control (E-NMPC) framework for dynamic systems operating under uncertainty, with specific application to natural gas transmission networks. A key innovation lies in the integration of cyclic steady-state (CSS) constraints within the multistage MPC formulation, enabling the controller to manage periodic operating conditions commonly observed in energy systems. A Lyapunov-based descent condition is enforced to ensure robust stability of the controller. The multistage economic MPC framework is validated on two gas pipeline case studies, where it successfully minimizes net energy consumption, respects operational constraints under uncertain demand profiles, and guides the network to optimal cyclic operation. The Lyapunov function remains bounded in both case studies, validating the robust stability of multistage E-NMPC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Development of a metamodelling framework for building energy models with application to fifth-generation district heating and cooling networks

Fully defined physics-based building energy models can accurately represent building systems; however, generating models based on high-level parameters is time consuming and simulation time of complex models can be slow. This article discusses the development of a Metamodelling Framework to create metamodels from a building energy modelling dataset. The framework generates metamodels using either linear regression, random forests, or support vector regressions. A fifth-generation district heating and cooling system analysis use case was used to motivate the development of the framework. The use case required quick and accurate representations of annual building loads reported hourly. Typical annual building modelling approaches can result in a runtime of 10 min. The metamodels runtime was reduced to less than 10 s to load and run an annual simulation with user-defined covariates. The results of the metamodel performance and an abbreviated topology analysis based on the motivating use case will be presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

InClass nets: independent classifier networks for nonparametric estimation of conditional independence mixture models and unsupervised classification

Abstract Conditional independence mixture models (CIMMs) are an important class of statistical models used in many fields of science. We introduce a novel unsupervised machine learning technique called the independent classifier networks (InClass nets) technique for the nonparameteric estimation of CIMMs. InClass nets consist of multiple independent classifier neural networks (NNs), which are trained simultaneously using suitable cost functions. Leveraging the ability of NNs to handle high-dimensional data, the conditionally independent variates of the model are allowed to be individually high-dimensional, which is the main advantage of the proposed technique over existing non-machine-learning-based approaches. Two new theorems on the nonparametric identifiability of bivariate CIMMs are derived in the form of a necessary and a (different) sufficient condition for a bivariate CIMM to be identifiable. We use the InClass nets technique to perform CIMM estimation successfully for several examples. We provide a public implementation as a Python package called RainDancesVI.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

sPHENIX heavy flavor jet tagging studies in p+p at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}=200~GeV$

Heavy-flavor jets, which are initiated from heavy quarks, are ideal probes for studying flavor dependent parton energy loss. We report on the performance of jet flavor tagging using two Neural Network Machine Learning (ML) models: the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model and an Attention-based Neural Network, in simulations of 200 GeV p + p collisions. The tagging performance of bottom quark initiated jets with both ML models surpasses that of the traditional cut-based method. Technical details, including sample and kinematic variable selections, the machine learning training and testing setup with parameter tuning, and outcome comparisons, will be discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Modeling Analog Tile-Based Accelerators Using SST

Analog computing has been widely proposed to improve the energy efficiency of multiple important workloads including neural network operations, and other linear algebra kernels. To properly evaluate analog computing and explore more complex workloads such as systems consisting of multiple analog data paths, system level simulations are required. Moreover, prior work on system architectures for analog computing often rely on custom simulators creating signficant additional design effort and complicating comparisons between different systems. To remedy these issues, this report describes the design and implementation of a flexible tile-based analog accelerator element for the Structural Simulation Toolkit (SST). The element focuses on heavily on the tile controller—an often neglected aspect of prior work—that is sufficiently versatile to simulate a wide range of different tile operations including neural network layers, signal processing kernels, and generic linear algebra operations without major constraints. The tile model also interoperates with existing SST memory and network models to reduce the overall development load and enable future simulation of heterogeneous systems with both conventional digital logic and analog compute tiles. Finally, both the tile and array models are designed to easily support future extensions as new analog operations and applications that can benefit from analog computing are developed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗

Machine learning the electronic structure of matter across temperatures

Here, we introduce machine learning (ML) models that predict the electronic structure of materials across a wide temperature range. Our models employ neural networks and are trained on density functional theory (DFT) data. Unlike most other ML models that use DFT data, our models directly predict the local density of states (LDOS) of the electronic structure. This provides several advantages, including access to multiple observables such as the electronic density and electronic total free energy. Moreover, our models account for both the electronic and ionic temperatures independently, making them ideal for applications like laser heating of matter. We validate the efficacy of our LDOS-based models on a metallic test system. They accurately capture energetic effects induced by variations in ionic and electronic temperatures over a broad temperature range, even when trained on a subset of these temperatures. These findings open up exciting opportunities for investigating the electronic structure of materials under both ambient and extreme conditions.

Fiedler, Lenz↗

An executable specification for the message processor in a simple combining network

While the primary function of the network in a parallel computer is to communicate data between processors, it is often useful if the network can also perform rudimentary calculations. That is, some simple processing ability in the network itself, particularly for performing parallel prefix computations, can reduce both the volume of data being communicated and the computational load on the processors proper. Unfortunately, typical implementations of such networks require a large fraction of the hardware budget, and so combining networks are viewed as being impractical. The FFP Machine has such a combining network, and various characteristics of the machine allow a good deal of simplification in the network design. Despite being simple in construction however, the network relies on many subtle details to work correctly. This paper describes an executable model of the network which will serve several purposes. It provides a complete and detailed description of the network which can substantiate its ability to support necessary functions. It provides an environment in which algorithms to be run on the network can be designed and debugged more easily than they would on physical hardware. Finally, it provides the foundation for exploring the design of the message receiving facility which connects the network to the individual processors.

Middleton, David↗