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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Revolutionizing Energetic Materials Discovery and Design: The Role of Data Science and Machine Learning

Here this Special Issue of Propellants, Explosives, Pyrotechnics (PEP) is focused on energetic materials discovery and design using Data Science and Machine Learning (DS&ML). The application of DS&ML has proven to be transformative in many areas, where it has been shown to expedite analysis, enable extraction of greater quantities of information from datasets, and guide experiments. However, energetic materials and their applications present unique challenges that often hinder the use of standardized tools and practices. In spite of these challenges, important and compelling advancements are being made toward data-directed research in energetics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Explainable machine learning of the underlying physics of high-energy particle collisions

We present an implementation of an explainable and physics-aware machine learning model capable of inferring the underlying physics of high-energy particle collisions using the information encoded in the energy-momentum four-vectors of the final state particles. We demonstrate the proof-of-concept of our White Box AI approach using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) which learns from a DGLAP-based parton shower Monte Carlo event generator. The constrained generator network architecture mimics the structure of a parton shower exhibiting similarities with Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). We show, for the first time, that our approach leads to a network that is able to learn not only the final distribution of particles, but also the underlying parton branching mechanism, i.e. the Altarelli-Parisi splitting function, the ordering variable of the shower, and the scaling behavior. While the current work is focused on perturbative physics of the parton shower, we foresee a broad range of applications of our framework to areas that are currently difficult to address from first principles in QCD. Examples include nonperturbative and collective effects, factorization breaking and the modification of the parton shower in heavy-ion, and electron-nucleus collisions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Cation Ordering of Double Perovskite Oxides from Machine Learning and Causal Relations

This work investigates origins of cation ordering in double perovskites using first-principles theory computations combined with machine learning (ML) and causal relations. We have considered various oxidation states of A, A', B, and B' from the family of transition metal ions to construct a diverse compositional space. A conventional framework employing traditional ML classification algorithms such as Random Forest (RF) coupled with appropriate features including geometry-driven and key structural modes leads to accurate prediction (~98%) of A-site cation ordering. We have evaluated the accuracy of ML models by employing analyses of decision paths, assignments of probabilistic confidence bound, and finally a direct non-Gaussian acyclic structural equation model to investigate causality. Our study suggests that structural modes are crucial for classifying layered, columnar, and rock-salt ordering. The charge difference between A and A' is the most important feature for predicting clear layered ordering, which in turn depends on the B and B' charge separation. We have also designed mathematical relationships with these features to derive energy differences to form clear layered ordering. Here, the trilinear coupling between tilt, in-phase rotation, and A-site antiferroelectric displacement in the Landau free-energy expansion becomes the necessary condition behind formation of A-site cation ordering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

First-Principles-Based Machine Learning Models for Phase Behavior and Transport Properties of CO 2

In this work, we construct distinct first-principles-based machine-learning models of CO 2 , reproducing the potential energy surface of the PBE-D3, BLYP-D3, SCAN and SCAN-rvv10 approximations of density functional theory. Here we employ the Deep Potential methodology to develop the models and consequently achieve a significant computational efficiency over ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) that allows for larger system sizes and time scales to be explored. Although our models are trained only with liquid phase configurations, they are able to simulate a stable interfacial system and predict vapor-liquid equilibrium properties, in good agreement with results from the literature. Because of the computational efficiency of the models, we are also able to obtain transport properties, such as viscosity and diffusion coefficients. We find that the SCAN-based model presents a temperature shift in the position of the critical point, while the SCAN-rvv10-based model shows improvement but still exhibits a temperature shift that remains approximately constant for all properties investigated in this work. We find that the BLYP-D3-based model generally performs better for liquid phase and vapor-liquid equilibrium properties, but the PBE-D3-based model is better suited for predicting transport properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

New machine learning techniques for simulation-based inference: InferoStatic nets, kernel score estimation, and kernel likelihood ratio estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential \varphi φ . In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

Kong, Kyoungchul↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field Work Proposal ERKJ358: Black-box training for scientific machine learning models (Final Report)

The overarching goal of this project is to develop a scalable black-box training capability for scientific machine learning (SciML) problems that are non-trainable with existing automatic differentiation (AD)-based algorithms. AD assumes that a loss function can be decomposed into a sequence of elementary operations whose derivatives are known. This assumption is violated when the loss function includes a black-box physical model (e.g., a legacy simulator). The current strategy, converting a black-box simulator to an AD-enabled code via differential programming, is inflexible and time-, labor-consuming. Thus, black-box optimization is a main workhorse for training SciML models, e.g., in scientific reinforcement learning, hyper-parameter fine tuning, designing SciML models with adversarial robustness, etc.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Machine Learning Techniques for Simulation-Based Inference: InferoStatic Nets, Kernel Score Estimation, and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential $\varphi$. In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Verification of Triso Fuel Burnup Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Pebble Bed Reactors are fueled with fuel pebbles that are circulated multiple times through the reactor vessel before discharge. During the normal operation of a PBR, ejected pebbles are returned to the reactor or discharged depending on the fuel burnup and physical condition of the pebbles. The burnup measurement is usually based on detected radiation signatures of fission products accumulated in the pebble fuel over burnup. Previous research has shown that height of photopeaks of fission products, such as 134 Cs, 137 Cs, 154 Eu, etc., can be used independently or in combination to infer or predict the level of burnup in the fuel. However, it remains challenging to measure such complex sources due to self-shielding effects, strong radiation background and intervening materials. Another operational challenge is the required high throughput of burnup measurement, which necessitates limited measurement time and thus impacts quality of measured gamma-ray spectra. Hence, advanced spectral analysis methods are needed to analyze the noisy gamma spectra and predict the burnup values. We propose to use machine learning (ML) method to interpret gamma-ray spectra and predict the burnup values of the pebbles. ML has achieved widespread success and adoption across a few domains that require pattern recognition and analysis in varied data types. In this work, we apply three proven ML approaches - multilayer perceptrons, convolutional neural networks, and transformers - to the task of predicting fuel burnup from measured gamma spectra, and compile a dataset of simulated spectra for training and validation of the ML models. In this paper, we will discuss the network architecture of these three ML approaches and compare the performance of the simplest of these (MLP) to a standard linear regression.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

On closures for reduced order models - A spectrum of first-principle to machine-learned avenues

For over a century, reduced order models (ROMs) have been a fundamental discipline of theoretical fluid mechanics. Early examples include Galerkin models inspired by the Orr–Sommerfeld stability equation and numerous vortex models, of which the von Karman vortex street is one of the most prominent. Subsequent ROMs typically relied on first principles, like mathematical Galerkin models, weakly nonlinear stability theory, and two- and three-dimensional vortex models pioneered the data-driven proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) modeling. In early POD modeling, available data were used to build an optimal basis, which was then utilized in a classical Galerkin procedure to construct the ROM, but data have made a profound impact on ROMs beyond the Galerkin expansion. In this paper, we take a modest step and illustrate the impact of data-driven modeling on one significant ROM area. Specifically, we focus on ROM closures, which are correction terms that are added to the classical ROMs in order to model the effect of the discarded ROM modes in under-resolved simulations. Through simple examples, we illustrate the main modeling principles used to construct the classical ROMs, motivate and introduce modern ROM closures, and show how data-driven modeling, artificial intelligence, and machine learning have changed the standard ROM methodology over the last two decades. Finally, we outline our vision on how the state-of-the-art data-driven modeling can continue to reshape the field of reduced order modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay and Mortality Using Patient Vital Signs: Machine Learning Model Development and Validation

Background: Patient monitoring is vital in all stages of care. In particular, intensive care unit (ICU) patient monitoring has the potential to reduce complications and morbidity, and to increase the quality of care by enabling hospitals to deliver higher-quality, cost-effective patient care, and improve the quality of medical services in the ICU. Objective: We here report the development and validation of ICU length of stay and mortality prediction models. The models will be used in an intelligent ICU patient monitoring module of an Intelligent Remote Patient Monitoring (IRPM) framework that monitors the health status of patients, and generates timely alerts, maneuver guidance, or reports when adverse medical conditions are predicted. Methods: We utilized the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) database to extract ICU stay data for adult patients to build two prediction models: one for mortality prediction and another for ICU length of stay. For the mortality model, we applied six commonly used machine learning (ML) binary classification algorithms for predicting the discharge status (survived or not). For the length of stay model, we applied the same six ML algorithms for binary classification using the median patient population ICU stay of 2.64 days. For the regression-based classification, we used two ML algorithms for predicting the number of days. We built two variations of each prediction model: one using 12 baseline demographic and vital sign features, and the other based on our proposed quantiles approach, in which we use 21 extra features engineered from the baseline vital sign features, including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages. Results: We could perform predictive modeling with minimal features while maintaining reasonable performance using the quantiles approach. The best accuracy achieved in the mortality model was approximately 89% using the random forest algorithm. The highest accuracy achieved in the length of stay model, based on the population median ICU stay (2.64 days), was approximately 65% using the random forest algorithm. Conclusions: The novelty in our approach is that we built models to predict ICU length of stay and mortality with reasonable accuracy based on a combination of ML and the quantiles approach that utilizes only vital signs available from the patient’s profile without the need to use any external features. This approach is based on feature engineering of the vital signs by including their modified means, standard deviations, and quantile percentages of the original features, which provided a richer dataset to achieve better predictive power in our models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Post-Event Fault Identification with Machine Learning for Protection System Validation

Power system protection devices have transitioned over the past few decades from mechanical to analog devices, then to solid state and finally digital. Relays and their associated critical network of equipment have significantly increased in complexity. Even internally, relays have gained significant intricacy, with relatively simple overcurrent or differential functions now being assisted by a myriad of other functions. This is necessary as the grid becomes more complex, but it brings increased difficulty in monitoring and upkeep. Misoperation caused by accidental improper relay settings or deliberate malicious actions is a constant challenge faced by all utilities. These improper settings can be difficult to identify and may require exhaustive post-mortem analysis, typically after a major outage event has already occurred. A mechanism is needed for monitoring the behavior of protection systems to validate that their performance falls within expectations. Relays that fail to isolate a fault or trip when there is no system disturbance can be flagged for settings review in situations where this behavior may not have been noticed due to manual restoration or backup protection operations. This work presents a concept for a machine learning (ML) system capable of validating the performance of protection systems by identifying fault events and characterizing protection system responses based solely on available current and voltage measurements. As a first step in its development, an experimental dataset is generated, and a random forest model is implemented with high accuracy in distinguishing four power system scenarios.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Framework for Conotoxin Class and Molecular Target Prediction

Conotoxins are small and highly potent neurotoxic peptides derived from the venom of marine cone snails which have captured the interest of the scientific community due to their pharmacological potential. These toxins display significant sequence and structure diversity, which results in a wide range of specificities for several different ion channels and receptors. Despite the recognized importance of these compounds, our ability to determine their binding targets and toxicities remains a significant challenge. Predicting the target receptors of conotoxins, based solely on their amino acid sequence, remains a challenge due to the intricate relationships between structure, function, target specificity, and the significant conformational heterogeneity observed in conotoxins with the same primary sequence. We have previously demonstrated that the inclusion of post-translational modifications, collisional cross sections values, and other structural features, when added to the standard primary sequence features, improves the prediction accuracy of conotoxins against non-toxic and other toxic peptides across varied datasets and several different commonly used machine learning classifiers. Here, we present the effects of these features on conotoxin class and molecular target predictions, in particular, predicting conotoxins that bind to nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs). We also demonstrate the use of the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE)-Tomek in balancing the datasets while simultaneously making the different classes more distinct by reducing the number of ambiguous samples which nearly overlap between the classes. In predicting the alpha, mu, and omega conotoxin classes, the SMOTE-Tomek PCA PLR model, using the combination of the SS and P feature sets establishes the best performance with an overall accuracy (OA) of 95.95%, with an average accuracy (AA) of 93.04%, and an f1 score of 0.959. Using this model, we obtained sensitivities of 98.98%, 89.66%, and 90.48% when predicting alpha, mu, and omega conotoxin classes, respectively. Similarly, in predicting conotoxins that bind to nAChRs, the SMOTE-Tomek PCA SVM model, which used the collisional cross sections (CCSs) and the P feature sets, demonstrated the highest performance with 91.3% OA, 91.32% AA, and an f1 score of 0.9131. The sensitivity when predicting conotoxins that bind to nAChRs is 91.46% with a 91.18% sensitivity when predicting conotoxins that do not bind to nAChRs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Prediction of Perovskite Stability Using Accelerated Testing and Machine Learning

PV technologies based on hybrid perovskites offer the potential for reducing solar cell costs, but they are particularly vulnerable to degradation by environmental factors such as moisture, oxygen, and illumination. Commercialization will require not only stable materials and device architectures but also accelerated testing protocols and models that can predict degradation from the accelerated testing data. Here, we report results from in situ photoluminescence (PL) and photoconductivity (PC) measurements during perovskite degradation with simultaneous optical transmittance (Tr) measurements or reflected dark field (DF) imaging. From PL, PC, Tr, and DF, we determine (respectively) the steady-state quasi-Fermi level splitting, the mean effective carrier diffusion length, the extent of conversion of perovskite to higher bandgap degradation products, and the extent of scattering from domains with different orientation or composition, all as a function of time during degradation. Simultaneous measurement of PL-PC-Tr or PL-PC-DF on perovskite absorbers in an environmental chamber over a wide range of humidity, oxygen, temperature, and illumination levels yields a rich data set. We use machine learning to develop a model that accurately predicts (within 10%) the time for the diffusion length to decrease to 85% of its initial value. The model takes the environmental conditions and the first few measurements from the PL-PC-Tr or PL-PC-DF experiment as input. Thus, the model provides a framework to interpret the results of accelerated testing of absorber materials. One of the dominant features in the model of degradation for CH 3 NH 3 PbI 3 is the initial rate at which transmittance increase. For devices with opaque contacts, the pixel-averaged rate of change of the intensity in dark-field images can be used in place of transmittance. Results are also presented on full PV devices with in-situ current-voltage (JV) measurements. Here, the data from simultaneous PL-DF-JV under environmental stresses reveal intimate connection between degradation and shunts and provide a framework to extend accelerated testing to devices. Further, the presentation reveals underlying universal behavior in degradation pathways over a broad range of environmental stresses and perovskite compositions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Temperature Gas Sensor Materials with Properties Predicted via First-Principles Calculations with Machine Learning Modeling and Experimental Corroboration

Understanding the temperature dependence of functional properties of sensing materials is vital for their applications in combustion environments. The electron-phonon coupling that derives the electronic structure change with temperatures is a key property of interest as it affects other sensing responses. Herein, we first assess the temperature dependence of band gap renormalization in sensing materials by employing Allen-Heine-Cardona (AHC) theory with density functional theory (DFT) simulations corroborated with experimental observation. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, we employ data-driven Gaussian process regression to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell empirical model from a set of physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as to quantify the uncertainty associated with theoretical predictions. These models capture well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions and, therefore, the variation of bandgap as a function of temperature for other novel materials. The predicted candidates from machine learning models are further validated by experiments and DFT calculations.

bandgap renormalization↗
DOE OSTI2023

The influence of physical and algorithmic factors on simulated far-field waveforms and source–time functions of underground explosions using unsupervised machine learning

SUMMARY Characterizing explosion sources and differentiating between earthquake and underground explosions using distributed seismic networks becomes non-trivial when explosions are detonated in cavities or heterogeneous ground material. Moreover, there is little understanding of how changes in subsurface physical properties affect the far-field waveforms we record and use to infer information about the source. Simulations of underground explosions and the resultant ground motions can be a powerful tool to systematically explore how different subsurface properties affect far-field waveform features, but there are added variables that arise from how we choose to model the explosions that can confound interpretation. To assess how both subsurface properties and algorithmic choices affect the seismic wavefield and the estimated source functions, we ran a series of 2-D axisymmetric non-linear numerical explosion experiments and wave propagation simulations that explore a wide array of parameters. We then inverted the synthetic far-field waveform data using a linear inversion scheme to estimate source–time functions (STFs) for each simulation case. We applied principal component analysis (PCA), an unsupervised machine learning method, to both the far-field waveforms and STFs to identify the most important factors that control variance in the waveform data and differences between cases. For the far-field waveforms, the largest variance occurs in the shallower radial receiver channels in the 0–50 Hz frequency band. For the STFs, both peak amplitude and rise times across different frequencies contribute to the variance. We find that the ground equation of state (i.e. lithology and rheology) and the explosion emplacement conditions (i.e. tamped versus cavity) have the greatest effect on the variance of the far-field waveforms and STFs, with the ground yield strength and fracture pressure being secondary factors. Differences in the PCA results between the far-field waveforms and STFs could possibly be due to near-field non-linearities of the source that are not accounted for in the estimation of STFs and could be associated with yield strength, fracture pressure, cavity radius and cavity shape parameters. Other algorithmic parameters are found to be less important and cause less variance in both the far-field waveforms and STFs, meaning algorithmic choices in how we model explosions are less important, which is encouraging for the further use of explosion simulations to study how physical Earth properties affect seismic waveform features and estimated STFs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

GeoThermalCloud: Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration

Geothermal is a renewable energy source that can provide reliable and flexible electricity generation for the world. In the past decade, the U.S. Geological Survey's resource assessments, Play Fairway Analyses (PFA), and GeoVision report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office provided insights on enormous untapped potential for geothermal energy to contribute to the U.S. domestic energy needs. The past studies identified that geothermal resources without surface expression (e.g., blind/hidden hydrothermal systems) comprise a huge potential. These blind systems can significantly increase power generation. But a primary challenge is locating and quantifying these hidden resources, which do not have any thermal manifestations on the surface. PFA has successfully identified some blind systems in the western USA (e.g., specific locations in the Great Basin region within Nevada). However, a comprehensive search for these blind systems can be time-consuming, expensive, and resource-intensive with a low probability of success. Accelerated discovery of these blind resources is needed with growing energy needs and higher chances of exploration success. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have shown promise in shortening the timeline for this discovery. This paper presents a novel ML-based methodology for geothermal exploration towards PFA applications. Our methodology is provided through our open-source ML framework called GeoThermalCloud \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl}. GeoThermalCloud uses a series of unsupervised, supervised, and physics-informed ML methods available in SmartTensors AI platform \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors}. Here, the presented analyses are performed using our unsupervised ML algorithm called NMF$k$, which is available in the SmartTensors AI platform. Our ML algorithm facilitates the discovery of new phenomena, hidden patterns, and mechanisms that helps us to make informed decisions. Moreover, the GeoThermalCloud enhances the collected PFA data and discovers signatures representative of geothermal resources. Through GeoThermalCloud, we were able to identify hidden patterns in the geothermal field data needed for the efficient discovery of blind systems. Crucial geothermal signatures often overlooked in traditional PFA are extracted using GeoThermalCloud and analyzed by the subject matter experts to provide ML-enhanced PFA, which is informative for efficient exploration. We applied our ML methodology on various open-source geothermal datasets within the U.S. (some of these are collected by past PFA work), and the results provide valuable insights on resource types within those explored regions. This ML-enhanced workflow makes GeoThermalCloud attractive for the geothermal community to improve existing datasets and extract valuable information often unnoticed during geothermal exploration.

machine learning (ML), geothermal energy↗