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At least 1,729 records · Page 96
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Relative effect of anthropogenic warming and natural climate variability to changes in Compound drought and heatwaves

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events can be influenced by large scale teleconnections and anthropogenic warming, leading to severe socio-economic impacts across various climate regions. Here, the relative influence of six different teleconnection patterns and anthropogenic global warming on the global CDHW occurrences is quantified systematically using the instrumental data period, 1982–2016. The results from the study suggest a substantial increase in the CDHW events (1–5 events per year) across various parts of the globe at the beginning of 21st century (2000–2016). A Bayesian approach is implemented to identify the most vulnerable climate regions based on the degree of susceptibility of heatwaves (DSHW) towards drought. As such, top ten most vulnerable regions are selected based on the DSHW magnitude, and a partial correlation analysis is performed to select the natural and anthropogenic drivers of CDHW in those regions, separately. A logistic regression model is then used to determine significant changes in the odds of CDHW due to changes in the selected drivers that suggest a significantly positive, and multiplicative effect of anthropogenic global warming in the top ten most vulnerable climate regions. Finally, the same logistic regression model, integrated with an analytical framework, is applied to determine the relative influence of anthropogenic global warming on the changes in odds of CDHW for the future, 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming limits. Finally, the results suggest that relative to the 2 °C global warming, constraining to the 1.5 °C global warming limit may conduce about 17-fold reduction in the odds of CDHW in the most vulnerable climate region, East Asia, 5–8-fold reduction in Western North America, Northern Australia, Central North America, Central Europe, South Asia, and the Mediterranean region, and 3–4-fold reduction in Northeastern Brazil, Eastern North America, and West Asia.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the effects of heatwave events on hydrological processes in the contiguous United States (2003–2022)

Extreme heat and drought conditions are affecting water availability in many regions worldwide, leading to negative impacts on human societies, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, current research lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis examining the interplay between multiple hydrological factors and heatwave events, especially in the context of climate change. This research broadly pertains to understanding the dynamics of hydrological factors and their potential responses to heatwave during warm seasons across the contiguous United States for the period from 2003 to 2022. Utilizing data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), we analyzed surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, Groundwater Storage (GWS), Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM), and Total Water Storage (TWS) to discern annual patterns and the impacts of heatwave. Further, the spatial patterns of heatwave highlighted a higher occurrence in the western, central, and northeastern U.S., with longer average durations in the western and south-central regions. These events are predominantly dry, characterized by low Relative Humidity (RH), except in the southeastern U.S., where heatwave coincide with high RH levels. Post-heatwave analysis indicated a reduction in GWS, TWS, RZSM, and ET, alongside an increase in surface runoff, RH, and precipitation. An in-depth examination of rainfall and temperature dynamics during heatwave revealed weak correlations between rainfall and temperature, as well as between rainfall and heatwave duration, highlighting the complex nature of these interactions. The study also found an enhanced probability of rainfall following heatwave, particularly in the eastern regions, drawing attention to the potential for increased flood risks post-heatwave. Our findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on the impacts of heatwave on hydrological factors, providing valuable insights for climate change adaptation and water resource management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The value of fusion energy to a decarbonized United States electric grid

Fusion could be a part of future decarbonized electricity systems, but it will need to compete with other technologies. In particular, pulsed tokamak plants have a unique operational mode, and evaluating which characteristics make them economically competitive can help select between design pathways. Using a capacity expansion and operations model, here we determined cost thresholds for pulsed tokamaks to reach a range of penetration levels in a future decarbonized US Eastern Interconnection. The required capital cost to reach a fusion capacity of 100 GW varied from $2,700 to $7,500 kW -1 , and the equilibrium penetration increases rapidly with decreasing cost. The value per unit power capacity depends on the variable operational cost and on the cost of its competition, particularly fission, much more than on the pulse cycle parameters. These findings can therefore provide initial cost targets for fusion more generally in the United States.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Preface

The 25 April 2015 Gorkha, Nepal earthquake of magnitude 7.8 devastated parts of Nepal and northern India with a death toll of more than 8000. Here, several aftershocks of moderate size were recorded, including one of M7.2 on 12 May 2015 on the eastern periphery of the main rupture.

Purnachandra Rao, N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Basin scale distributions of dissolved manganese, nickel, zinc and cadmium in the Mediterranean Sea

Samples for dissolved trace metal concentrations were collected during GEOTRACES expedition GA04-N in summer/spring in the Mediterranean Sea, starting in the Atlantic Ocean and sampling both deep basins of the Mediterranean Sea. Outflow of Mediterranean Outflow Water leads to elevated concentrations of Mn, Ni and Zn in the Atlantic Ocean, but a concentration minimum in the Atlantic distribution of Cd. Nevertheless, when comparing the in- and outflow, the Mediterranean is a net source of Cd to the Atlantic Ocean. Surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd are elevated in the Mediterranean relative to the Atlantic Ocean where Ni and Cd gradually increased along the eastward surface water flow path, Zn reached a homogenous concentration in the order of 1 to 1.5 nM, and Mn displayed a patchy surface distribution. The observed differences are attributable to the different dynamics of their biogeochemical cycling, notably the partitioning between the dissolved and particulate phases due to biological uptake, scavenging and possibly organic complexation. The elevated surface concentrations of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Mediterranean are derived from atmospheric deposition, where most likely Zn and Cd are mainly sourced from anthropogenic origin, Mn mostly from lithogenic origin and Ni from both anthropogenic and lithogenic origin. Dissolved Zn and Cd, as well as phosphate and nitrate, display striking inter-basin fractionations with elevated concentrations in the deep water of the western basin compared to the deep eastern basin, without a coinciding increase in the apparent oxygen utilization. Given that physical circulation or contribution from biogenic particulate metals cannot explain the elevated dissolved concentrations, an external non-biological source is required. This source is most likely a vertical flux of metal laden particles dissolving through the water column of the western Mediterranean where these particles, most likely from anthropogenic origin, are derived from either atmospheric deposition or particulate material deposited on the continental shelves that makes its way into the deep basin. Furthermore, to confirm or detect trends in dissolved metal concentrations in the deep basin, regular basin wide assessments of the trace metal distributions in the Mediterranean are needed. The distributions of Mn, Ni, Zn and Cd in the Sea of Marmara illustrate that all of these metals can be affected by anthropogenic surface sources and highlight the different susceptibilities of the dissolved metal distributions to supply from remineralization, and to removal through scavenging. This study provides a first baseline to assess future changes and underlines that the Mediterranean marine environment is susceptible to anthropogenic disturbances, with varying effects for different metals due to differing source strengths and biogeochemical cycles.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Assessing the geomechanical stability of interbedded hydrate-bearing sediments under gas production by depressurization at NGHP-02 Site 16

Establishing the geomechanical stability of marine sediments in the vicinity of a production well is one of the key design considerations in planning offshore gas production from marine hydrate reservoirs. This work presents an assessment of the sediment stability at India's National Gas Hydrate Program, Expedition 2 (NGHP-02) Site 16 Area B offshore eastern India, for which gas production is to be carried out by depressurization. One important feature of the study is that extensive calibration of constitutive model parameters has been conducted based on laboratory test data from pressured core samples. From analysis perspective, the site is challenging because the hydrate reservoir consists of thin layers of hydrate-bearing sands interbedded with mud. Moreover, depressurization at the depth of a reservoir more than 2750 m below sea surface will lead to a pore pressure drop, and accordingly an effective confining stress increase as high as 25 MPa. In dealing with thin interbedded hydrate-bearing strata, meshing requirements for flow and geomechanical analysis are quite different from those for reservoirs with thicker massive layers, An axisymmetric model and one-way coupling simulations were thus adopted for this study, in which the geomechanical study utilizes pore pressure and hydrate saturation output from the flow study, but the flow study does not takes the porosity changes from the geomechanical analysis. Instead, the reduction of porosity due to sediment deformation in the flow study is based on a pressure-dependent pore compressibility relationship derived from geomechanical modeling. The rationality is validated through back computing the pore compressibility from the geomechanical deformation results. Finally, the study shows that large compression in the reservoir will result in movement of the sediments from above and below, as well as laterally in smaller magnitudes; and the sediment is deemed stable during the gas production period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Physical property characteristics of gas hydrate-bearing reservoir and associated seal sediments collected during NGHP-02 in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, in the offshore of India

India’s National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) was conducted to better understand geologic controls on gas hydrate occurrence and morphology, targeting coarse-grained sediments along the lower continental slope offshore eastern India. This study combines seismic, logging-while-drilling data, and a petroleum system approach to provide a regional geologic and lithologic context for: 1) gas hydrate morphology and distribution, and 2) effects of fine-grained sediments (clays and other grains smaller than 63µm) on gas production in NGHP-02 Area B in the Krishna-Godavari Basin. Area B seismic data show a buried anticline/syncline structure with strong reflectors, R1 and R2, that delineate two of the five lithologic units: Unit I (shallowest), II (R1), III, IV (R2) and V (below the bas of gas hydrate stability). Throughout Area B, gas hydrate morphology depends on its placement within these units. Specifically, core- and grain-scale measurements indicate fines content exerts a primary control on the gas hydrate distribution and morphology. Units I, II and III are generally fine-grained. On the anticline crest, these units host primarily grain-displacing gas hydrate veins linked to pore-occupying gas hydrate in thin, localized, coarser-grained deposits. Diatoms in Unit III increase porosity with depth, reaching ~70% where it contacts Unit IV, the gas hydrate reservoir associated with reflector R2. The Unit III lithology and porosity allow fluid and dissolved-phase methane to escape Unit IV and form gas hydrate in the fine-grained overburden. Within Unit IV, fine-grained layers are interbedded with coarser-grained gas hydrate reservoir sands, and the fines content even in the sands is high enough to impact hydraulic and mechanical properties during gas production. Fluid motion during gas production can mobilize fines, which can then clog pore throats, limiting production rates. In conclusion, pore-water freshening during gas hydrate dissociation can increase fines mobilization, particularly given the smectite identified in the fine-grained interbeds.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Episodic hydrocarbon charge in tight Mississippian reservoirs of Central Oklahoma, USA: Insights from oil inclusion geochemistry

The unforeseen discovery of substantial hydrocarbons in ultra-tight Mississippian reservoirs in Oklahoma testifies to the complexity of the hydrocarbon charge across the flanks of the Nemaha Uplift. Based on crude oil and fluid-inclusion chemistry, the hydrocarbons at the western side of the Nemaha Uplift consist of highly-mature, thermally-cracked and less-mature uncracked hydrocarbons (0.50–1.4% calculated vitrinite reflectance, R c ). The oils are less mature on the eastern flank of the structure (0.5–0.7% R c ). Based on distributions of biomarkers and higher diamondoid (composed of three adamantane cages or more) distributions, the hydrocarbons entrapped within reservoir fluid-inclusions are sourced from the Woodford Shale and also from Mississippian carbonates. To our knowledge, this is the first work to describe oil correlations using diamondoids inside fluid inclusions. Petroleum compositions in the ultra-tight Mississippian reservoirs are highly variable, which highlights the need for a thorough assessment of mechanisms controlling charge. By integrating oil and fluid inclusion geochemistry and fluid-inclusion microthermometry with basin modeling, we show that the primary controls are: (1) proximity to the source-rock kitchen(s), (2) episodic charging from Permian through Cretaceous time, and (3) mixing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Characterization of a 12-pdr wrought-iron cannonball from the Akko 1 shipwreck

The Akko 1 shipwreck, discovered in Akko harbor, Israel, is the remains of an eastern Mediterranean brig built at the beginning of the 19th century. Among other finds, eleven cannonballs were found in the shipwreck and three of them were retrieved. Two of the cannonballs, the 9- and 24-pdrs, have been studied previously. The present study of the 12-pdr cannonball included γ-rays radiographic testing, XRF analysis, density measurements, optical microscopy and SEM-EDS observation, OES analysis and microhardness tests. The investigation included characterization of the composition, microstructure and slag analysis. The results revealed a quite homogenous microstructure of α-ferrite phase, with glassy, wüstite and fayalite slags, as typical for a wrought-iron—annealed product, a more complicated and an earlier technology, compared to the 9- and 24-pdr that were made of cast-iron. Ferritic cannonballs are extremely rare, especially in the 19th century, when cannonballs were manufactured of cast iron by the sand casting process. The different manufacturing methods may indicate a different place of fabrication, and an apparently earlier production date for the 12-pdr, which might have even been used as ballast. - Highlights: • Three cannonballs were retrieved from the 19th century Akko 1 shipwreck. • The 12-pdr differs from the 9- and 24-pdr cannonballs previously studied. • The 12-pdr was made of high quality annealed wrought-iron, not of cast-iron. • The technology used indicates a date earlier than the middle of the 19th century. • Perhaps the 12-pdr belonged to another navy than the other two or used as ballast.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Metallurgical characterization of brass objects from the Akko 1 shipwreck, Israel

The Akko 1 shipwreck was a small Egyptian armed vessel or auxiliary naval brig built in the eastern Mediterranean at the beginning of the 19th century. During the underwater excavations, about 230 brass hook-and-eye closures were found, mainly in the bow area. In addition, 158 brass cases were found, mainly between midships and the aft extremity of the shipwreck. Metallurgical non-destructive and destructive characterizations of selected items were performed, including radiographic testing, XRF, lead isotope analysis, optical microscopy, SEM–EDS and microhardness tests. The hook-and-eye closures and the cases were both found to be made of binary copper–zinc alloy (about 30 wt.% zinc). While the brass cases were made from rolled sheets, hand-made using simple tools, and joined by tin–lead soldering material, the brass hook-and-eye closures were hand-made from drawn brass wire, and manufactured from commercial drawn brass bars by a cold-working process. The lead isotope analyses suggest different provenances of the raw materials used for making the brass objects, thus the different origins of the ores may hint that the brass wire and sheet were imported to the workshops in which the objects were manufactured. - Highlights: • Brass cases and hook-and-eye closures were retrieved from the Akko 1 shipwreck. • Both types of objects were made of binary copper–zinc alloy (about 30 wt.% zinc). • The cases were hand-made from rolled sheets and joined by tin–lead soldering. • Hook-and-eye closures were made from drawn brass wire manufactured by cold-working. • Lead isotope analyses suggest that the origins of the raw material were diverse.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Preliminary Results of Helical Tomotherapy in Patients with Complex-Shaped Meningiomas Close to the Optic Pathway

Meningiomas are the most common benign intracranial tumor. Meningiomas close to the optic pathway represent a treatment challenge both for surgery and radiotherapy. The aim of this article is to describe early results of helical tomotherapy treatment in complex-shaped meningiomas close to the optic pathway. Twenty-eight patients were consecutively treated. All patients were immobilized with a thermoplastic head mask and planned with the aid of a magnetic resonance imaging-computed tomography fusion. All treatments included daily image guidance. Pretreatment symptoms and acute toxicity were recorded. Median age was 57.5 years, and 92.8% patients had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status scale {<=}1. The most common localizations were the sella turcica, followed by the cavernous sinus and the sphenoid. The most common symptoms were derived from cranial nerve deficits. Tomotherapy was administered as primary treatment in 35.7% of patients, as an adjuvant treatment in 32.4%, and as a rescue treatment after postsurgical progression in 32.1% patients. Most patients were either inoperable or Simpson IV. Total dose varied between 5000 and 5400 cGy; fractionation varied between 180 and 200 cGy. Median dose to the planning target volume was 51.7 Gy (range, 50.2-55.9 Gy). Median coverage index was 0.89 (range, 0.18-0.97). Median homogeneity index was 1.05 (range, 1-1.12). Acute transient toxicity was grade 1 and included headache in 35.7% patients, ocular pain/dryness in 28.5%, and radiation dermatitis in 25%. Thus far, with a maximal follow-up of 3 years, no late effects have been seen and all patients have a radiological stabilization of the disease. Helical tomotherapy offered a safe and effective therapeutic alternative for patients with inoperable or subtotally resected complex-shaped meningiomas close to the optic pathway. Acceptable coverage and homogeneity indexes were achieved with appropriate values for maximal doses delivered to the eyes, lenses, and chiasm, despite the proximity of the tumor to these structures.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Patient performance–based plan parameter optimization for prostate cancer in tomotherapy

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the influence of treatment-planning parameters on the quality of treatment plans in tomotherapy and to find the optimized planning parameter combinations when treating patients with prostate cancer under different performances. A total of 3 patients with prostate cancer with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 2 or 3 were included in this study. For each patient, 27 treatment plans were created using a combination of planning parameters (field width of 1, 2.5, and 5 cm; pitch of 0.172, 0.287, and 0.43; and modulation factor of 1.8, 3, and 3.5). Then, plans were analyzed using several dosimetrical indices: the prescription isodose to target volume (PITV) ratio, homogeneity index (HI), conformity index (CI), target coverage index (TCI), modified dose HI (MHI), conformity number (CN), and quality factor (QF). Furthermore, dose-volume histogram of critical structures and critical organ scoring index (COSI) were used to analyze organs at risk (OAR) sparing. Interestingly, treatment plans with a field width of 1 cm showed more favorable results than others in the planning target volume (PTV) and OAR indices. However, the treatment time of the 1-cm field width was 3 times longer than that of plans with a field width of 5 cm. There was no substantial decrease in treatment time when the pitch was increased from 0.172 to 0.43, but the PTV indices were slightly compromised. As expected, field width had the most significant influence on all of the indices including PTV, OAR, and treatment time. For the patients with good performance who can tolerate a longer treatment time, we suggest a field width of 1 cm, pitch of 0.172, and modulation factor of 1.8; for the patients with poor performance status, field width of 5 cm, pitch of 0.287, and a modulation factor of 3.5 should be considered.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

PCP consensus protein/peptide alphavirus antigens stimulate broad spectrum neutralizing antibodies

Vaccines based on proteins and peptides may be safer and if calculated based on many sequences, more broad-spectrum than those designed based on single strains. Physicochemical Property Consensus (PCP con ) alphavirus (AV) antigens from the B-domain of the E2 envelope protein were designed, synthesized recombinantly and shown to be immunogenic (i.e. sera after inoculation detected the antigen in dotspots and ELISA). Antibodies in sera after inoculation with B-region antigens based on individual AV species (eastern or Venezuelan equine encephalitis (EEEV con , VEEV con ), or chikungunya (CHIKV con ) bound only their cognate protein, while those designed against multiple species (Mosaik con and EVC con ) recognized all three serotype specific antigens. The VEEV con and EEEV con sera only showed antiviral activity against their related strains (in plaque reduction neutralization assays (PRNT 50/80 ). Peptides designed to surface exposed areas of the E2-A-domain of CHIKV con were added to CHIKV con inocula to provide anti-CHIKV antibodies. EVC con , based on three different alphavirus species, combined with E2-A-domain peptides from AllAV con , a PCPcon of 24 diverse AV, generated broad spectrum, antiviral antibodies against VEEV, EEEV and CHIKV, AV with less than 35% amino acid identity to each other (>65% diversity). This is a promising start to a molecularly defined vaccine against all AV. A further study with these antigens can illuminate what areas are most important for a robust immune response, resistant to mutations in rapidly evolving viruses. The validated computational methods can also be used to design broad spectrum antigens against many other pathogen families.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Multiple independent records of local glacier variability on Nuussuaq, West Greenland, during the Holocene

The sensitivity of mountain glaciers to small-scale climate fluctuations makes records of their past extent among the best proxies for identifying spatio-temporal climate variability. Here we build on the few existing Holocene records of local glacier change in Greenland by using three independent geochronological methods—proglacial lake sediment analysis, cosmogenic 10 Be surface-exposure dating, and in situ 14 C burial modeling—to reconstruct continuous records of Holocene glacier variability on Nuussuaq, West Greenland. 10 Be ages of perched boulders indicate eastern Nuussuaq was deglaciated between ~11.0 and 10.5 ka. Radiocarbon-dated sediments from two lakes on Nuussuaq contain mineral-rich layers between ~9.6 and 9.0 and ~8.7–8.0 cal ka BP that may be correlative with nearby ice sheet moraines deposited in the early Holocene. Multiple proxies for glacier size indicate frequent, high-amplitude glacier fluctuations superimposed on net glacier growth during the late Holocene, with significant ice expansion phases at ~3.7 ka, 2.8 ka, and throughout the past ~2 ka. Mean 10 Be ages from five nested moraine crests confirm that local glacier extents on Nuussuaq culminated during both the Little Ice Age [~1470 C.E. (n=3) and 1750 C.E. (n=3)] and the preceding centuries (~520–1320 C.E.; n=11). Results reveal that local glaciers on Nuussuaq episodically advanced and retreated at centennial timescales throughout the Holocene, most likely in response to regional climate changes in West Greenland superimposed on the progressive insolation-driven cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere. Our new 10 Be moraine chronologies coupled with other glacier-size proxies corroborate an emerging pattern of significant summer cooling and glacier expansion in the centuries prior to the Little Ice Age in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Glacial geology of the Hudson Mountains, Amundsen Sea sector, West Antarctica

The Hudson Mountains are situated in the eastern Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, adjacent to Pine Island Glacier. They form a volcanic field of 17 stratovolcanoes and parasitic vents, preserved as nunataks. Two former tributaries of Pine Island Glacier (Larter and Lucchitta glaciers) flow through the mountains. Here we present a detailed study of the glacial geology of the area. We describe field observations and measurements of geomorphological features from 15 of the nunataks, meltwater ponds found on the surface of three nunataks and supraglacial features (ice dolines) from two sites near the present grounding line. Together these provide constraints on the past ice sheet extent, flow pathways and thermal regime, and enhance our understanding of the present hydrological regime – all of which are important as context for the observed modern ice sheet behaviour. We find evidence suggesting that all nunataks in the Hudson Mountains were covered by ice during the Last Glacial Maximum (defined here as 26.5-19 ka) and have since deglaciated. Faceted and polished erratic cobbles and boulders of exotic lithologies (syenites, alkali granites, granites, granodiorites, tonalites and gabbros) are numerous and perched on nunatak surfaces. A marked difference between the dominant erratic lithologies on nunataks adjacent to Pine Island Glacier (granite) and Lucchitta Glacier (granodiorite-tonalite) indicates that the ice sheet was transporting clasts from at least two distinct upstream source regions. The similarity in degree of weathering suggests, however, that all the erratics were transported by one phase of (warm-based) glaciation; their presence on or close to the summits of all except one nunatak indicates that the ice sheet during that time was at least 700 m thicker than present. These results are consistent with ice sheet model simulations which suggest that all nunataks in the Hudson Mountains were completely submerged by the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Paleoclimatic implications of glacial fluctuations in the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy, northern Andes, Colombia, during the Lateglacial and Holocene

The reconstruction of former mountain glaciers from geomorphic mapping and cosmogenic-nuclide surface-exposure dating provides a unique opportunity to infer patterns of past terrestrial climate variability. Tropical mountain glaciers are particularly valuable as there are comparatively few terrestrial climate proxies at equatorial latitudes relative to higher latitudes. As the single largest climate zone on Earth, the tropics play an outsized role in mediating global climate via the ocean-atmosphere transfer of latent heat and water vapor. Nonetheless, there remains a persistent gap in our understanding of how the tropics influenced – or were influenced by – the high-magnitude climate shifts of the Late Pleistocene, and whether this high-energy region simply responded to extratropical forcing or was itself a driver of global climatic change. To help address this knowledge gap, we analyzed geologic evidence for past glacial fluctuations in three adjacent valleys in the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy, the highest subrange of the Eastern Cordillera in the Colombian Andes, to provide a terrestrial record of atmospheric temperature during the latter part of Termination 1. Coupled with geomorphic mapping and paleo-snowline reconstructions, our beryllium-10 glacial chronology indicates that glaciers in the humid inner tropics underwent pronounced growth and gradual decay during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (14.5–12.8 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.8–11.7 ka) periods, respectively, following a trend that, according to directly dated moraine records from throughout both polar hemispheres, appears to have been global. While the specific mechanism(s) behind this large-scale behavior remains to be corroborated, we revisit the hypothesis that ocean-atmosphere heat transfer and water vapor flux are key drivers of abrupt Lateglacial temperature fluctuations. Subsequent to the Lateglacial, deglaciation of the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy accelerated during the Early Holocene, a pattern also observed in other tropical glacier records. More recently, the magnitude of snowline rise and glacier retreat over the last two centuries supports the view that modern tropospheric warming is anomalously strong at least relative to the last ∼16,000 years.

Andes↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating the probability of fish encountering a marine hydrokinetic device

We report strong tidal currents in eastern Maine, USA, make that region attractive for tidal power development. We know very little about the effects of marine hydrokinetic (MHK) devices on fish, yet many fish species use tidal currents for movements. We used empirical data from stationary and mobile hydroacoustic surveys to examine the probability that fish would be at the depth of an MHK device and may therefore encounter it. The probability was estimated using three components: 1) probability of fish being at device-depth when the device was absent; 2) probability of fish behavior changing to avoid the device in the far-field; and 3) probability of fish being at device-depth in the near-field when the device was present. Furthermore, there were differences in probabilities of fish encountering the MHK device based on month, diel condition and tidal stage. The maximum probability of fish encountering the whole device was 0.432 (95% CI: [0.305, 0.553]), and the probability of fish encountering only device foils was 0.058 (95% CI: [0.043, 0.073]). Mobile hydroacoustics indicated that fish likely avoided the device with horizontal movement beginning 140 m away. Finally, we estimated the encounter probability for one device, but results can be applied to arrays, which may have bay-wide implications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗