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DOE OSTI2022

Providencia Island White Papers: Hawaii, USA: A Grid Planning Case Study for Providencia Island, Colombia

Special considerations exist for island grids seeking to smoothly integrate distributed energy resources (DERs), such as rooftop photovoltaics (PV), with an existing fossil fuel-based grid without compromising system stability and reliability. Hawaii, having successfully integrated nonconventional renewable energy sources for a hybrid electricity grid, may serve as a guide for technical specifications and interconnection policy. Island grid planners may seek to follow Hawaii's example by standardizing technical specifications of generators, particularly for advanced inverter components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

AC Power Flow Based DLMP Calculation and Decomposition Method to Smooth Power Fluctuation of Distributed Renewable Energy Sources

As the penetration of renewable energy sources increases, the growing renewable power variability brings ramping issues to power systems. Meanwhile, the development of distributed energy resources (DERs) makes the distribution systems to provide both energy and ancillary services. To incentivise individual resources and customers to alleviate ramping issues on the demand side, a two-stage distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) calculation and decomposition method is developed to formulate the marginal power ramping price for DERs. In the first stage of the proposed method, a distribution system operator market scheduling model based on AC optimal power flow is designed to estimate the optimal operating point of the distribution system. Subsequently, the voltage and power flow constraints are linearised in stage two to calculate DLMP. Finally, based on the Lagrange function and sensitivity factors, DLMP is decomposed to the marginal costs for active/reactive power, voltage management, power loss and power variability. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively smooth the power fluctuation and reduce the ramping flexibility requirements of distribution systems.

AC optimal power flow↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Validation of Synchronous Machine Governor

This paper introduces the development of a high-fidelity gas turbine governor model using a programmable logic controller for power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) validation. The governor model is integrated with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) PHIL test bed, featuring a 2-MVA synchronous machine and a 2.5-MW variable-speed drive, to emulate NG-driven HRSGs and CTs under various operational scenarios. The primary objective of this research is to study the grid-connected and islanding operations of conventional generation sources, with representative startup sequences including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramp-up, synchronization, and breaker closure. Preliminary results of the generator governor model on NREL PHIL platform, particularly using the 2.5-MW dynamometer system, offered significant insights into the modeling techniques, hardware integration, scaling, and real-world simulation dynamics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controlling radioisotope proportions when randomly sampling from Dirichlet distributions in PyRIID

As machine learning models for radioisotope quantification become more powerful, likewise the need for high-quality synthetic training data grows as well. For problem spaces that involve estimating the relative isotopic proportions of various sources in gamma spectra it is necessary to generate training data that accurately represents the variance of proportions encountered. In this report, we aim to provide guidance on how to target a desired variance of proportions which are randomly when using the PyRIID Seed Mixer, which samples from a Dirichlet distribution. We provide a method for properly parameterizing the Dirichlet distribution in order to maintain a constant variance across an arbitrary number of dimensions, where each dimension represents a distinct source template being mixed. We demonstrate that our method successfully parameterizes the Dirichlet distribution to target a specific variance of proportions, provided that several conditions are met. This allows us to follow a principled technique for controlling how random mixture proportions are generated which are then used downstream in the synthesis process to produce the final, noisy gamma spectra.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detecting False Data Injection Attacks in Smart Grids: A Semi-Supervised Deep Learning Approach

The dependence on advanced information and communication technology increases the vulnerability in smart grids under cyber-attacks. Recent research on unobservable false data injection attacks (FDIAs) reveals the high risk of secure system operation, since these attacks can bypass current bad data detection mechanisms. To mitigate this risk, this paper proposes a data-driven learning-based algorithm for detecting unobservable FDIAs in distribution systems. We use autoencoders for efficient dimension reduction and feature extraction of measurement datasets. Further, we integrate the autoencoders into an advanced generative adversarial network (GAN) framework, which successfully detects anomalies under FDIAs by capturing the unconformity between abnormal and secure measurements. Also, considering that the datasets collected from practical power systems are partially labeled due to expensive labeling costs and missing labels, the proposed method only requires a few labeled measurement data in addition to unlabeled data for training. Numerical simulations in three-phase unbalanced IEEE 13-bus and 123-bus distribution systems validate the detection accuracy and efficiency of this method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Storage Enabled Flexibility of Conventional Generation Assets (StorFlex)

The power systems have faced progressively more demanding operational requirements over the last two decades. Several factors contribute to these challenging operating conditions, including load growth, aging infrastructure, increasing penetrations of distributed energy resources (DERs), electrification of the economy, and policy initiatives such as decarbonization. The power system and its components must provide high operational flexibility to mitigate these challenges. For example, the proliferation of intermittent DERs such as wind and solar has increased the need for conventional generation assets like hydropower plants to respond to sudden load-generation imbalances. The higher flexibility requirements for hydropower plants cause more wear and tear, potentially shortening the useful lifespan of hydropower turbines. To reduce the need for hydropower plants to follow sudden changes in the dispatch signal, we investigate their combined operation with the energy storage systems (ESSs; “ESS-based hybridization”). Our analyses focuses on improving the lifespan of hydropower plants through ESS-based hybridization. Wear and tear on hydropower turbines (particularly Francis turbines) is modeled using a loss-of-life concept that is based on damage experienced by the turbine due to various cycles of operation. Then, we show that using ESSs to offset some of the high variation increases the remaining life of the hydropower plants. To demonstrate this, a few modeling tools were developed for this work: (1) a dynamic model for various components of the turbine and its governor; (2) a control strategy that assigns a slow-varying dispatch signal to a hydropower unit versus a fastmoving signal to ESS, such that the overall power request remains the same; and (3) models for the financial analysis to quantify the economic merits of such a framework. We used the models we developed to analyze the dispatch pattern of an actual hydropower plant with a power output of 50 MW and a head height of 152 m. This work showed that ESS-based hybridization could extend the life of the hydropower plant by 5% on average. This extension in life was then used to estimate the economic benefit in terms of cost deferrals associated with hydropower plant maintenance and replacement: on average, $3.6 million. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the size of ESS and cost of turbines was performed to show the variation in benefits over the range of turbine costs and ESS sizes. Crucially, stacking damage reduction and lifetime extension with other ESS value streams such as providing ancillary services could substantially increase the financial benefits of ESS-based hybridization. The higher costs associated with ESS of appropriate size would make more financial sense when multiple value streams are stacked and co-optimized to extract the maximum benefit. This dimension will be explored in future work.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Transportation Electrification on the System's Dynamic Frequency Response: Preprint

Transportation electrification is an integral component of the energy decarbonization transition. This paper investigates the impact of distributed energy resources (DERs), including distributed photovoltaics (DPV) and electric vehicles (EVs), in the primary frequency response of the power grid. Increasing DER adoption poses challenges to maintaining grid frequency stability. However, DERs' ability to provide fast frequency regulation services-primary frequency response (PFR) and secondary frequency response (SFR)-can be exploited to recover the frequency after an N-1 contingency event in the system. This paper also investigates the importance of a droop control strategy through dynamic models of DPV and EV to provide the primary frequency regulation services following the contingency event. A dynamic EV model, based on the PVDl model Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) introduced, has been used for the simulation. Further, DERs' primary frequency response is studied for five different cases of DER penetration levels after the system is exposed to the generator trip. Additionally, different frequency regulation capacities of EVs are analyzed. The studies show that an increment in DERs capacity providing effective PFR can improve the system frequency nadir and stabilize the frequency faster after the generation trip contingency.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Particlization in fluid dynamical simulations of heavy-ion collisions: The IS3D module

The IS3D particlization module simulates the emission of hadrons from heavy-ion collisions via Monte-Carlo sampling of the Cooper–Frye formula which converts fluid dynamical information into local phase-space distributions for hadrons. The code package includes multiple choices for the non-equilibrium correction to these distribution functions: the 14-moment approximation, first-order Chapman–Enskog expansion, and two types of modified equilibrium distributions. This makes it possible to explore to what extent heavy-ion experimental data are sensitive to different choices for δf n , presently the main source of theoretical uncertainty in the particlization stage. Here, we validate our particle sampler with a high degree of precision by generating several million hadron emission events from a longitudinally boost-invariant hypersurface and comparing the event-averaged particle spectra and space–time distributions to the Cooper–Frye formula.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal Phase Space Tomography for the Booster Synchrotron

Efforts in the study of the longitudinal behavior of charged particles in the Fermilab Booster can be catalyzed with an image of the two-dimensional phase space distribution. In the past, tomography has been extensively employed in the reconstruction of the phase space in accelerators such as the Recycler at Fermilab and the Proton Synchrotron Booster at CERN. However, such a capability had yet to realize for the Fermilab Booster synchrotron. In this work, the first successful tomographic phase space reconstruction of a low-energy Booster bunch is presented along with validation metrics. A numerical turn-by-turn model of the longitudinal particle dynamics in the Booster has been implemented, which utilizes a fast, map-based particle transport algorithm. Using a sinogram generated from the Wall Current Monitor, the iterative reconstruction algorithm recovers a discretized image of the original phase space distribution at variable resolution. The reconstruction result shows low root-mean-square error and a rapid convergence toward the solution, providing strong evidence of accuracy. Future and ongoing work includes modeling high-energy bunches above transition and using tomography to infer certain machine parameters such as synchronous phase, peak gap voltage, and synchronous energy in addition to the phase space distribution.

Ebeid, Safi [Unlisted]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal Phase Space Tomography for the Booster Synchrotron (Abstract Only)

Ebeid, Safi [Unlisted, US]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demonstrating the Transient System Impact of Cyber-Physical Events Through Scalable Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Co-Simulation

Modern power systems become more vulnerable to cyber threats due to their growing interconnectivity, interdependence, and complexity. Widespread deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) further expands the threat landscape to the grid edge, where fewer cybersecurity protections exist. In this article, a systematic cyber-physical events demonstration, enabled by an integrated transmission, distribution, and communication co-simulation framework, is performed. It analyzes cyber risks to power grid under DER-enabled automatic generation control from different angles. Unlike existing works, the simulation captures millisecond-to-minutes frequency and voltage transient dynamics at a cross-region system scale.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predictability of Localized Plasmonic Responses in Nanoparticle Assemblies

Design of nanoscale structures with desired optical properties is a key task for nanophotonics. In this work, the correlative relationship between local nanoparticle geometries and their plasmonic responses is established using encoder-decoder neural networks. In the im2spec network, the relationship between local particle geometries and local spectra is established via encoding the observed geometries to a small number of latent variables and subsequently decoding into plasmonic spectra; in the spec2im network, the relationship is reversed. Surprisingly, these reduced descriptions allow high-veracity predictions of local responses based on geometries for fixed compositions and surface chemical states. Analysis of the latent space distributions and the corresponding decoded and closest (in latent space) encoded images yields insight into the generative mechanisms of plasmonic interactions in the nanoparticle arrays. Ultimately, this approach creates a path toward determining configurations that yield the spectrum closest to the desired one, paving the way for stochastic design of nanoplasmonic structures.

nanoparticle arrays↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning functional priors and posteriors from data and physics

In this work, we develop a new Bayesian framework based on deep neural networks to be able to extrapolate in space-time using historical data and to quantify uncertainties arising from both noisy and gappy data in physical problems. Specifically, the proposed approach has two stages: (1) prior learning and (2) posterior estimation. At the first stage, we employ the physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GAN) to learn a functional prior either from a prescribed function distribution, e.g., Gaussian process, or from historical data and physics. At the second stage, we employ the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate the posterior in the latent space of PI-GANs. In addition, we use two different approaches to encode the physics: (1) automatic differentiation, used in the physicsinformed neural networks (PINNs) for scenarios with explicitly known partial differential equations (PDEs), and (2) operator regression using the deep operator network (DeepONet) for PDE-agnostic scenarios. We then test the proposed method for (1) meta-learning for one-dimensional regression, and forward/inverse PDE problems (combined with PINNs); (2) PDE-agnostic physical problems (combined with DeepONet), e.g., fractional diffusion as well as saturated stochastic (100-dimensional) flows in heterogeneous porous media; and (3) spatial-temporal regression problems, i.e., inference of a marine riser displacement field using experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide accurate predictions as well as uncertainty quantification given very limited scattered and noisy data, since historical data could be available to provide informative priors. In summary, the proposed method is capable of learning flexible functional priors, e.g., both Gaussian and non-Gaussian process, and can be readily extended to big data problems by enabling mini-batch training using stochastic HMC or normalizing flows since the latent space is generally characterized as low dimensional.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Gold Nanorod Spectral Morphology Analysis Pipeline

The development of a colloidal synthesis procedure to produce nanomaterials with high shape and size purity is often a time-consuming, iterative process. This is often due to quantitative uncertainties in the required reaction conditions and the time, resources, and expertise intensive characterization methods required for quantitative determination of nanomaterial size and shape. Absorption spectroscopy is often the easiest method for colloidal nanomaterial characterization. However, due to the lack of a reliable method to extract nanoparticle shapes from absorption spectroscopy, it is generally treated as a more qualitative measure for metal nanoparticles. This work demonstrates a gold nanorod (AuNR) spectral morphology analysis tool, called AuNR-SMA, which is a fast and accurate method to extract quantitative structural information from colloidal AuNR absorption spectra. To demonstrate the practical utility of this model, we apply it to three distinct applications. First, we demonstrate this model's utility as an automated analysis tool in a high-throughput AuNR synthesis procedure by generating quantitative size information from optical spectra. Second, we use the predictions generated by this model to train a machine learning model to predict the resulting AuNR size distributions under specified reaction conditions. Third, we apply this model to spectra extracted from the literature where no size distributions are reported and impute unreported quantitative information on AuNR synthesis. This approach can potentially be extended to any other nanocrystal system where absorption spectra are size dependent, and accurate numerical simulation of absorption spectra is possible. In addition, this pipeline could be integrated into automated synthesis apparatuses to provide interpretable data from simple measurements, help explore the synthesis science of nanoparticles in a rational manner, or facilitate closed-loop workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. In this work, we find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Absolute atomic hydrogen density measurements in an atmospheric pressure plasma jet: generation, transport and recombination from the active discharge region to the effluent

Atomic hydrogen (H) generated by atmospheric pressure radio frequency (RF) plasma jet is investigated by two-photon absorption laser induced fluorescence in a He-H 2 mixture. The reported time and spatially resolved H density profiles enable a detailed analysis of the species generation, transport and decay along the axis of symmetry of the jet. Here, the H density distribution for a continuous RF plasma jet corresponds well with the outcome of a Pseudo-1D plug flow model. In addition, RF power modulation has a strong effect on the H density in the active discharge region but has a negligible effect on the H density in the far effluent.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Unknot

We introduce natural language processing into the study of knot theory, as made natural by the braid word representation of knots. We study the UNKNOT problem of determining whether or not a given knot is the unknot. After describing an algorithm to randomly generate N-crossing braids and their knot closures and discussing the induced prior on the distribution of knots, we apply binary classification to the UNKNOT decision problem. We find that the Reformer and shared-QK Transformer network architectures outperform fully-connected networks, though all perform at 95% accuracy. Perhaps surprisingly, we find that accuracy increases with the length of the braid word, and that the networks learn a direct correlation between the confidence of their predictions and the degree of the Jones polynomial. Finally, we utilize reinforcement learning (RL) to find sequences of Markov moves and braid relations that simplify knots and can identify unknots by explicitly giving the sequence of unknotting actions. Trust region policy optimization (TRPO) performs consistently well, reducing 80% of the unknots with up to 96 crossings we tested to the empty braid word, and thoroughly outperformed other RL algorithms and random walkers. Studying these actions, we find that braid relations are more useful in simplifying to the unknot than one of the Markov moves.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗