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At least 1,729 records · Page 96

Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants

Renewal process modeling is used for the failure prediction of hardware components under periodic maintenance. While most studies utilized data-driven approaches to estimate the input parameters for renewal process models, this paper initiates a line of research to integrate renewal process modeling with probabilistic models of underlying mechanisms associated with physical degradation and maintenance. At this stage of the research, the methodology integrates Markov modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) models of degradation, while maintenance is treated by a data-driven approach. This methodology is valuable to obtain a more accurate estimation of component reliability and availablity, especially when (i) components are highly reliable, and failure data are limited, (ii) historical data are unreliable due to changes in design, operation, and maintenance, or (iii) advanced technologies have emerged limiting operational data. The methodology explicitly incorporates the underlying spatiotemporal causes of failure into the renewal model, allowing to rank the criticality of causal factors to improve maintenance and mitigation strategies. Although the new methodology is applicable for component reliability and availability analysis in diverse industries, this report demonstrates its value for estimating frequencies of a Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), which is an initiating event in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs).

42 ENGINEERING↗

A database of global storm surge reconstructions

Storm surges are among the deadliest coastal hazards and understanding how they have been affected by climate change and variability in the past is crucial to prepare for the future. However, tide gauge records are often too short to assess trends and perform robust statistical analyses. Here we use a data-driven modeling framework to simulate daily maximum surge values at 882 tide gauge locations across the globe. We use five different atmospheric reanalysis products for the storm surge reconstruction, the longest one going as far back as 1836. The data that we generate can be used, for example, for long-term trend analyses of the storm surge climate and identification of regions where changes in the intensity and/or frequency of storms surges have occurred in the past. It also provides a better basis for robust extreme value analysis, especially for tide gauges where observational records are short. The data are made available for public use through an interactive web-map as well as a public data repository.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward adaptive decision support for assessing infrastructure system resilience using hidden performance measures

The understanding of resilience is an emerging topic within the study of risks affecting distributed transportation infrastructure systems. Although recent studies have explored the quantification of system resilience, there has been limited research aimed at understanding the role of multiple performance measures, geographies, and modeling uncertainties within the assessment of resilience and associated decision-making. Under real-world conditions, there is an increased burden on analysts for translating observed system data (from human and electronic sensor observations) into the estimation of system performance that may not be directly observable. This paper addresses these issues using a scenario-based risk modeling approach to understand: 1) resilience of complex systems, often in cases of hidden (not readily observable) measures of performance, 2) resilience sensitivity to modeling uncertainties in event and system characteristics, and 3) resilience sensitivity to the measurement of performance across multiple dimensions. The methods in this paper integrate uncertainty-driven risk and probabilistic modeling within a multi-state Markov approach. This study contributes to the state-of-the-art by developing methodologies for assessing community perceptions of infrastructure system resilience using observable factors and inferring possibly hidden performance measures for facilitating adaptive decision-support. The methods are demonstrated with hypothetical spatiotemporal data for the Washington, District of Columbia and Baltimore, Maryland urban regions in the United States against evacuation-causing and shelter-in-place disruptive scenarios across multiple system performance dimensions. The analysis results may be useful for risk managers, supply chain analysts, emergency decision-makers, and the general public.

Infrastructure System Resilience, Risk Management,↗

Leveraging Optimal Sparse Sensor Placement to Aggregate a Network of Digital Twins for Nuclear Subsystems

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) require continuous monitoring of various systems, structures, and components to ensure safe and efficient operations. The critical safety testing of new fuel compositions and the analysis of the effects of power transients on core temperatures can be achieved through modeling and simulations. They capture the dynamics of the physical phenomenon associated with failure modes and facilitate the creation of digital twins (DTs). Accurate reconstruction of fields of interest (e.g., temperature, pressure, velocity) from sensor measurements is crucial to establish a two-way communication between physical experiments and models. Sensor placement is highly constrained in most nuclear subsystems due to challenging operating conditions and inherent spatial limitations. This study develops optimized data-driven sensor placements for full-field reconstruction within reactor and steam generator subsystems of NPPs. Optimized constrained sensors reconstruct field of interest within a tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel irradiation experiment, a lumped parameter model of a nuclear fuel test rod and a steam generator. The optimization procedure leverages reduced-order models of flow physics to provide a highly accurate full-field reconstruction of responses of interest, noise-induced uncertainty quantification and physically feasible sensor locations. Accurate sensor-based reconstructions establish a foundation for the digital twinning of subsystems, culminating in a comprehensive DT aggregate of an NPP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Hindlimb Suspension as a Model to Study Ophthalmic Complications in Microgravity Status Report: Optimization of Rat Retina Flat Mounts Staining to Study Vascular Remodeling

Preliminary data from a prior tissue‐sharing experiment has suggested that early growth response protein‐1 (Egr1), a transcription factor involved in various stress responses in the vasculature, is induced in the rat retina after 14 days of hindlimb suspension (HS) and may be evidence that mechanical stress is occurring secondary to the cephalad fluid shift. This mechanical stress could cause changes in oxygenation of the retina, and the subsequent ischemia‐ or inflammation‐driven hypoxia may lead to microvascular remodeling. This microvascular remodeling process can be studied using image analysis of retinal vessels and can be then be quantified by the VESsel GENeration Analysis (VESGEN) software, a computational tool that quantifies remodeling patterns of branching vascular trees and capillary or vasculogenic networks. Our project investigates whether rodent HS is a valid model to study the effects of simulated‐weightlessness on ocular structures and their relationship with intracranial pressure (ICP). One of the hypotheses to be tested is that HS‐induced cephalad fluid shift is accompanied by vascular engorgement that produces changes in retinal oxygenation, leading to oxidative stress, hypoxia, microvascular remodeling, and cellular degeneration. We have optimized the procedure to obtain flat mounts of rat retina, staining of the endothelial lining in vasculature and acquisition of high quality images suitable for VESGEN analysis. Briefly, eyes were fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde for 24 hours and retinas were detached and then mounted flat on microscope slides. The microvascular staining was done with endothelial cell‐specific isolectin binding, coupled to Alexa‐488 fluorophore. Image acquisition at low magnification and high resolution was performed using a new Leica SP8 confocal microscope in a tile pattern across the X,Y plane and multiple sections along the Z‐axis. This new confocal microscope has the added capability of dye separation using the Linear Unmixing method and allows us to remove the autofluorescence originating from the photoreceptor layer. In summary, we have an improved method for studying the retinal microvasculature that will provide an increase in the quality of images captured and will be applied throughout the various animal cohorts of the recentlyinitiated study that will evaluate rodent HS as a model to study ophthalmic complications in microgravity.

Theriot, Corey A.↗

Nano-ADEPT Aeroloads Wind Tunnel Test

Analysis completed since the test suggests that all test objectives were met– This claim will be verified in the coming weeks as the data is examined further– Final disposition of test objective success will be documented in a final reportsubmitted to NASA stakeholders (early August 2015)– Expect conference paper in early 2016• Data products and observations made during testing will be used to refinecomputational models of Nano-ADEPT• Carbon fabric relaxed from its pre-test state during the test– System-level tolerance for relaxation will be driven by destination-specific andmission-specific aerothermal and aerodynamic requirements• Bonus experiment of asymmetric shape demonstrates that an asymmetricdeployable blunt body can be used to generate measureable lift– With a strut actuation system and a robust GN&C algorithm, this effect could beused to steer a blunt body at hypersonic speeds to aid precision landing

atmospheric entry↗

Identification of Critical Airports from the Perspective of Delay and Disruption Propagation in Air Travel Networks

It is well-known that delays and disruptions that originate at certain airports end up spreading spread on the network to other airports, sometimes straining a large fraction of the system. Hence data-driven modeling of this phenomenon is important from the standpoint of planning and strategy. In this work, utilizing the publicly available data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), we employ the well-known influence maximization paradigm, to mine for the top airports in the US airport network, from the perspective of delay spread. In the process, we develop a diffusion simulator and implement a greedy algorithm to aid our task. We then explore the temporal trends by considering one winter month and one summer month in our analysis. Finally, we characterize the clusters in the US airport network and investigate the patterns of delay spread when airports in each of the clusters are affected.

Visweswara Sathanur, Arun↗

Non-averaged single-molecule tertiary structures reveal RNA self-folding through individual-particle cryo-electron tomography

Large-scale and continuous conformational changes in the RNA self-folding process present significant challenges for structural studies, often requiring trade-offs between resolution and observational scope. Here, we utilize individual-particle cryo-electron tomography (IPET) to examine the post-transcriptional self-folding process of designed RNA origami 6-helix bundle with a clasp helix (6HBC). By avoiding selection, classification, averaging, or chemical fixation and optimizing cryo-ET data acquisition parameters, we reconstruct 120 three-dimensional (3D) density maps from 120 individual particles at an electron dose of no more than 168 e - Å -2 , achieving averaged resolutions ranging from 23 to 35 Å, as estimated by Fourier shell correlation (FSC) at 0.5. Each map allows us to identify distinct RNA helices and determine a unique tertiary structure. Statistical analysis of these 120 structures confirms two reported conformations and reveals a range of kinetically trapped, intermediate, and highly compacted states, demonstrating a maturation folding landscape likely driven by helix-helix compaction interactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A broadband gamma-ray spectrometry using novel unfolding algorithms for characterization of laser wakefield-generated betatron radiation

We present a high-flux, broadband gamma-ray spectrometry capable of characterizing the betatron radiation spectrum over the photon energy range from 10 keV to 20 MeV with respect to the peak photon energy, spectral bandwidth, and unique discrimination from background radiations, using a differential filtering spectrometer and the unfolding procedure based on the Monte Carlo code GEANT4. These properties are experimentally verified by measuring betatron radiation from a cm-scale laser wakefield accelerator (LWFA) driven by a 1-PW laser, using a differential filtering spectrometer consisting of a 15-filter and image plate stack. The gamma-ray spectra were derived by unfolding the photostimulated luminescence (PSL) values recorded on the image plates, using the spectrometer response matrix modeled with the Monte Carlo code GEANT4. The accuracy of unfolded betatron radiation spectra was assessed by unfolding the test PSL data simulated with GEANT4, showing an ambiguity of less than 20% and clear discrimination from the background radiation with less than 10%. The spectral analysis of betatron radiation from laser wakefield-accelerated electron beams with energies up to 3 GeV revealed radiation spectra characterized by synchrotron radiation with the critical photon energy up to 7 MeV. The gamma-ray spectrometer and unfolding method presented here facilitate an in-depth understanding of betatron radiation from LWFA process and a novel radiation source of high-quality photon beams in the MeV regime.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Regional and global elevational patterns of microbial species richness and evenness

Although elevational gradients in microbial biodiversity have attracted increasing attention recently, the generality in the patterns and underlying mechanisms are still poorly resolved. Further, previous studies focused mostly on species richness, while left understudied evenness, another important aspect of biodiversity. Here, we studied the elevational patterns in species richness and evenness of stream biofilm bacteria and diatoms in six mountains in Asia and Europe. We also reviewed published results for elevational richness patterns for soil and stream microbes in a literature analysis. Our results revealed that even within the same ecosystem type (that is, stream) or geographical region, bacteria and diatoms showed contrasting patterns in diversity. Stream microbes, including present stream data, tend to show significantly increasing or decreasing elevational patterns in richness, contrasting the findings for soil microbes that typically showed nonsignificant or significantly decreasing patterns. In all six mountains for bacteria and in four mountains for diatoms, species richness and evenness were positively correlated. The variation in bacteria and diatom richness and evenness were substantially explained by anthropogenic driven factors, such as total phosphorus (TP). However, diatom richness and evenness were also related to different main drivers as richness was mostly related to pH, while evenness was most explained by TP. Our results highlight the lack of consistent elevational biodiversity patterns of microbes and further indicate that the two facets of biodiversity may respond differently to environmental gradients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗

Optimizing Cell-based Antimicrobials through Pooled Genomic Libraries

DNA synthesis and assembly technologies ushered in through synthetic biology have great promise for biomanufacturing, bioremediation, and the development of living therapeutics. Unfortunately, predicting sequence to function relationships, including for biosynthetic pathways expressed in a new host organism, is difficult and often requires many iterative cycles of design, construction, and testing. We are working to develop data-driven approaches to identify the genetic determinants of growth defects and productivity for the expression of a cell-based antimicrobial. We assayed the growth, pigment production, and antimicrobial activity of a collection of over 10,000 genetic mutants of the violacein biosynthetic pathway and sequenced the genetic variation of these mutants. Through this project, we have developed an innovative codebase to automate the determination of pigmentation and antimicrobial clearing diameter for tens of thousands of genetic mutants cultivated on agar dishes. Further, we have written DNA sequence analysis code to demultiplex & provide consensus sequences from high-throughput PacBio long-read circular consensus sequencing (CCS) datasets. From this foundation, we plan to map DNA sequence to function to predict an optimal genetic design to maximize antimicrobial activity while minimizing deleterious growth effects. The workflows and algorithms developed through this project can be broadly applied to other engineered functions in microbes, uncovering sequence to function relationships for complex phenotypes where function impacts fitness.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling Kinesin Spindle Protein and Aurora B Inhibition with Apoptosis Induction Enhances Oral Cancer Cell Killing

Many proteins regulating mitosis have emerged as targets for cancer therapy, including the kinesin spindle protein (KSP) and Aurora kinase B (AurB). KSP is crucial for proper spindle pole separation during mitosis, while AurB plays roles in chromosome segregation and cytokinesis. Agents targeting KSP and AurB selectively affect dividing cells and have shown significant activity in vitro. However, these drugs, despite advancing to clinical trials, often yield unsatisfactory outcomes as monotherapy, likely due to variable responses driven by cyclin B degradation and apoptosis signal accumulation networks. Accumulated data suggest that combining emerging antimitotics with various cytostatic drugs can enhance tumor-killing effects compared to monotherapy. Here, we investigated the impact of inhibiting anti-apoptotic signals with the BH3-mimetic Navitoclax in oral cancer cells treated with the selective KSP inhibitor, Ispinesib, or AurB inhibitor, Barasertib, aiming to potentiate cell death. The combination of BH3-mimetics with both KSP and AurB inhibitors synergistically induced substantial cell death, primarily through apoptosis. A mechanistic analysis underlying this synergistic activity, undertaken by live-cell imaging, is presented. Our data underscore the importance of combining BH3-mimetics with antimitotics in clinical trials to maximize their effectiveness.

Silva, João P. N. (ORCID:0000000344554286)↗

At least some errors are randomly generated (Freud was wrong)

An experiment was carried out to expose something about human error generating mechanisms. In the context of the experiment, an error was made when a subject pressed the wrong key on a computer keyboard or pressed no key at all in the time allotted. These might be considered, respectively, errors of substitution and errors of omission. Each of seven subjects saw a sequence of three digital numbers, made an easily learned binary judgement about each, and was to press the appropriate one of two keys. Each session consisted of 1,000 presentations of randomly permuted, fixed numbers broken into 10 blocks of 100. One of two keys should have been pressed within one second of the onset of each stimulus. These data were subjected to statistical analyses in order to probe the nature of the error generating mechanisms. Goodness of fit tests for a Poisson distribution for the number of errors per 50 trial interval and for an exponential distribution of the length of the intervals between errors were carried out. There is evidence for an endogenous mechanism that may best be described as a random error generator. Furthermore, an item analysis of the number of errors produced per stimulus suggests the existence of a second mechanism operating on task driven factors producing exogenous errors. Some errors, at least, are the result of constant probability generating mechanisms with error rate idiosyncratically determined for each subject.

Sellen, A. J.↗

ISS-Experiments of Columnar-to-Equiaxed Transition in Solidification Processing

The main topic of the research project CETSOL in the framework of the Microgravity Application Promotion (MAP) programme of the European Space Agency (ESA) is the investigation of the transition from columnar to equiaxed grain growth during solidification. Microgravity environment allows for suppression of buoyancy-driven melt flow and for growth of equiaxed grains free of sedimentation and buoyancy effects. This contribution will present first experimental results obtained in microgravity using hypo-eutectic AlSi alloys in the Materials Science Laboratory (MSL) on-board the International Space Station (ISS). The analysis of the experiments confirms the existence of a columnar to equiaxed transition, especially in the refined alloy. Temperature evolution and grain structure analysis provide critical values for the position, the temperature gradient and the solidification velocity at the columnar to equiaxed transition. These data will be used to improve modeling of solidification microstructures and grain structure on different lengths scales.

Sturz, Laszlo↗

Damage Detection of a Pressure Vessel with Smart Sensing and Deep Learning

Structural Health Monitoring plays a crucial role in ensuring the safety and reliability of critical infrastructure, including pressure vessels involved in various applications. This research reports the damage detection of a pressure box employed in space habitat that operates in harsh environment where both structural failure and bolt joint loosening may occur. These failure modes are extremely hard to model based on first principles. We explore proper sensing mechanism and the associated inverse analysis algorithm that can elucidate the health condition of the pressure box. It is identified that piezoelectric impedance based active interrogation can provide necessary information for damage detection in such a system. Concurrently, deep learning technique leveraging spatial convolutional neural network is synthesized to analyze the raw data acquired and identify different types of damage. By training the deep learning model on a dataset of healthy and various damage scenarios, we can achieve high accuracy in identifying the presence of damage and its type. This research provides a data-driven methodology for structural damage detection using deep learning and has the potential to be extended to various systems with different failure modes.

Yang Zhang↗

High-Performance Computing for Real-Time Grid Analysis and Operation

Power grids worldwide are undergoing an unprecedented transition as a result of grid evolution meeting information revolution. The grid evolution is largely driven by the desire for green energy. Emerging grid technologies such as renewable generation, smart loads, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and distributed generation provide opportunities to generate energy from green sources and to manage energy use for better system efficiency. With utility companies actively deploying these technologies, a high level of penetration of these new technologies is expected in the next 5-10 years, bringing in a level of intermittency, uncertainties, and complexity that the grid did not see nor design for. On the other hand, the information infrastructure in the power grid is being revolutionized with large-scale deployment of sensors and meters in both the transmission and distribution networks. The future grid will have two-way flows of both electrons and information. The challenge is how to take advantage of the information revolution: pull the large amount of data in, process it in real time, and put information out to manage grid evolution. Without addressing this challenge, the opportunities in grid evolution will remain unfulfilled. This transition poses grand challenges in grid modeling, simulation, and information presentation. The computational complexity of underlying power grid modeling and simulation will significantly increase in the next decade due to an increased model size and a decreased time window allowed to compute model solutions. High-performance computing is essential to enable this transition. The essential technical barrier is to vastly increase the computational speed so operation response time can be reduced from minutes to seconds and sub-seconds. The speed at which key functions such as state estimation and contingency analysis are conducted (typically every 3-5 minutes) needs to be dramatically increased so that the analysis of contingencies is both comprehensive and real time. An even bigger challenge is how to incorporate dynamic information into real-time grid operation. Today’s online grid operation is based on a static grid model and can only provide a static snapshot of current system operation status, while dynamic analysis is conducted offline because of low computational efficiency. The offline analysis uses a worst-case scenario to determine transmission limits, resulting in under-utilization of grid assets. This conservative approach does not necessarily lead to reliability. Many times, actual power grid scenarios are not studied, and they will push the grid over the edge and resulting in outages and blackouts. This chapter addresses the HPC needs in power grid analysis and operations. Example applications such as state estimation and contingency analysis are given to demonstrate the value of HPC in power grid applications. Future research directions are suggested for high performance computing applications in power grids to improve the transparency, efficiency, and reliability of power grids.

Contingency Analysis↗