Atmospheric ice nucleating particle measurements and parameterization representative for Indian region
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Anil Kumar, V.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Climate sensitivity”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Ocean cavity regime shift reversed West Antarctic grounding line retreat in the late Holocene
Recent geologic and modeled evidence suggests that the grounding line of the Siple Coast of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreated hundreds of kilometers beyond its present position in the middle to late Holocene and readvanced within the past 1.7 ka. This grounding line reversal has been attributed to both changing rates of isostatic rebound and regional climate change. Here, we test these two hypotheses using a proxy-informed ensemble of ice sheet model simulations with varying ocean thermal forcing, global glacioisostatic adjustment (GIA) model simulations, and coupled ice sheet-GIA simulations that consider the interactions between these processes. Our results indicate that a warm to cold ocean cavity regime shift is the most likely cause of this grounding line reversal, but that GIA influences the rate of ice sheet response to oceanic changes. This implies that the grounding line here is sensitive to future changes in sub-ice shelf ocean circulation.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Experimental warming across a tropical forest canopy height gradient reveals minimal photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation
Abstract Tropical forest canopies cycle vast amounts of carbon, yet we still have a limited understanding of how these critical ecosystems will respond to climate warming. We implemented in situ leaf‐level + 3°C experimental warming from the understory to the upper canopy of two Puerto Rican tropical tree species, Guarea guidonia and Ocotea sintenisii . After approximately 1 month of continuous warming, we assessed adjustments in photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, stomatal conductance, leaf traits and foliar respiration. Warming did not alter net photosynthetic temperature response for either species; however, the optimum temperature of Ocotea understory leaf photosynthetic electron transport shifted upward. There was no Ocotea respiratory treatment effect, while Guarea respiratory temperature sensitivity ( Q 10 ) was down‐regulated in heated leaves. The optimum temperatures for photosynthesis ( T opt ) decreased 3–5°C from understory to the highest canopy position, perhaps due to upper canopy stomatal conductance limitations. Guarea upper canopy T opt was similar to the mean daytime temperatures, while Ocotea canopy leaves often operated above T opt . With minimal acclimation to warmer temperatures in the upper canopy, further warming could put these forests at risk of reduced CO 2 uptake, which could weaken the overall carbon sink strength of this tropical forest.
Carter, Kelsey R.↗
Stomatal behaviour moderates the water cost of CO 2 acquisition for 21 boreal and temperate species under experimental climate change
Abstract The linkage of stomatal behaviour with photosynthesis is critical to understanding water and carbon cycles under global change. The relationship of stomatal conductance (g s ) and CO 2 assimilation (A net ) across a range of environmental contexts, as represented in the model parameter (g 1 ), has served as a proxy of the marginal water cost of carbon acquisition. We useg 1 to assess species differences in stomatal behaviour to a decade of open‐air experimental climate change manipulations, asking whether generalisable patterns exist across species and climate contexts.A net ‐g s measurements (17 727) for 21 boreal and temperate tree species under ambient and +3.3°C warming, and ambient and ~40% summer rainfall reduction, provided >2700 estimates ofg 1 . Warming and/or reduced rainfall treatments both loweredg 1 because those treatments resulted in lower soil moisture and because stomatal behaviour changed more in warming when soil moisture was low. Species tended to respond similarly, although, in species from warmer and drier habitats, g 1 tended to be slightly higher and to be the least sensitive to the decrease in soil water. Overall, both warming and rainfall reduction consistently made stomatal behaviour more conservative in terms of water loss per unit carbon gain across 21 species and a decade of experimental observation.
Plant Sciences↗
Coordination of rooting, xylem, and stomatal strategies explains the response of conifer forest stands to multi-year drought in the southern Sierra Nevada of California
Abstract. Extreme droughts are a major determinant of ecosystem disturbance that impacts plant communities and feeds back into climate change through changes in plant functioning. However, the complex relationships between aboveground and belowground plant hydraulic traits and their role in governing plant responses to drought are not fully understood. In this study, we use a model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator in a configuration that includes plant hydraulics (FATES-Hydro), to investigate ecosystem responses to the 2012–2015 California drought in comparison with observations at a site in the southern Sierra Nevada that experienced widespread tree mortality during this drought. We conduct a sensitivity analysis to explore how different plant water sourcing and hydraulic strategies lead to differential responses during normal and drought conditions. The analysis shows the following. Deep roots that sustain productivity through the dry season are needed for the model to capture observed seasonal cycles of evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) in normal years, and deep-rooted strategies are nonetheless subject to large reductions in ET and GPP when the deep soil reservoir is depleted during extreme droughts, in agreement with observations. Risky stomatal strategies lead to greater productivity during normal years as compared to safer stomatal control, but they also lead to a high risk of xylem embolism during the 2012–2015 drought. For a given stand density, stomatal and xylem traits have a stronger impact on plant water status than on ecosystem-level fluxes. Our study highlights the significance of resolving plant water sourcing strategies to represent drought impacts on plants and consequent feedbacks in models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A climate index derived from satellite measured spectral infrared radiation
The vertical infrared radiative emitting structure (VIRES) climate index, based on radiative transfer theory and derived from the spectral radiances typically used to retrieve temperature profiles, is introduced. It is assumed that clouds and climate are closely related and a change in one will result in a change in the other. The index is a function of the cloud, temperature, and moisture distributions. It is more accurately retrieved from satellite data than is cloudiness per se. The VIRES index is based upon the shape and relative magnitude of the broadband weighting function of the infrared radiative transfer equation. The broadband weighting curves are retrieved from simulated satellite infrared sounder data (spectral radiances). The retrieval procedure is described and the error error sensitivities of the method investigated. Index measuring options and possible applications of the VIRES index are proposed.
Abel, M. D.↗
Influence of heat flow on early Martian climate
Previous arguments have suggested that the formation of the valley networks on Mars may be explained by higher internal regolith temperatures associated with a much higher heat flow early in the planet's history. It is possible that this higher heat flow could cause groundwater to be closer to the martian surface 3.8 billion years ago, and thus allow the formation of the valley networks by groundwater sapping, without having to invoke surface warming due to an atmospheric greenhouse effect. It was previously shown that, in fact, it may not be possible to completely separate the effects of higher heat flow and atmospheric greenhouse on early Mars. We have more fully explored the parametric space of our set of equations to better determine the sensitivity of the system to variations in any of the factors. The limiting factor in the effectiveness of an atmospheric greenhouse is the total CO2 available in the system. We find that a combination of higher heat flow and atmospheric greenhouse effect on early Mars may more easily explain valley network formation and distribution, even for a cool early sun, than either of these mechanisms separately.
Postawko, Susan↗
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS
We compared zonal mean specific humidity derived from the 21 June-4 July 1995 Global Positioning System (GPS)/MET occultation observations with that derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The GPS/MET results indicate a drier troposphere, especially near the subtropical tradewind inversion. A small, moist bias in the GPS/MET upper northern-hemisphere troposphere compared to ECMWF may be due to a small radiosonde temperature bias. A diagram shows the difference (g/kg) between the GPS/MET zonal mean specific humidity and that for June-August derived from 1963-1973 radiosondes. Although the observing period is short, GPS and ECMWF results both indicate a significantly wetter boundary layer at most latitudes consistent with decadal trends observed in radiosonde data. GPS/MET results exhibit higher tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE), suggesting a more vigorous tropical Hadley circulation. Drier, free troposphere air in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is due in part to a moist radiosonde bias but may also reflect some negative moisture feedback. Using 1992-1997 ground GPS observations and recent advancements in GPS technology, we removed an apparent altimetric drift (-1.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr) due to columnar water vapor from the Topography (Ocean) Experiment (TOPEX) microwave radiometer, which brought the TOPEX mean sea level change estimates into better agreement with historical tide gauge records, suggesting global mean sea level is rising at a rate of 1.5-2.0 mm/yr. We can also discern a statistically significant increase of 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/square m/yr in mean columnar water vapor over the ocean from 1992-1997. Optimal fingerprinting can be used for the detection and attribution of tropospheric warming due to an anthropogenic greenhouse. Optimal fingerprinting distinguishes between different types of signals according to their spatial and temporal patterns, while minimizing the influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.
Kursinski, R.↗
The GGCMI Phase 2 Experiment: Global Gridded Crop Model Simulations Under Uniform Changes in CO2, Temperature, Water, and Nitrogen Levels (Protocol Version 1.0)
Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.
GGCMI↗
Insights on the Vulnerability of Antarctic Glaciers From the ISMIP6 Ice Sheet Model Ensemble and Associated Uncertainty
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.
Hélène Seroussi↗
Warming of the lower Columbia River , 1853 to 2018
Abstract Water temperature is a critical ecological indicator; however, few studies have statistically modeled century‐scale trends in riverine or estuarine water temperature, or their cause. Here, we recover, digitize, and analyze archival temperature measurements from the 1850s onward to investigate how and why water temperatures in the lower Columbia River are changing. To infill data gaps and explore changes, we develop regression models of daily historical Columbia River water temperature using time‐lagged river flow and air temperature as the independent variables. Models were developed for three time periods (mid‐19th, mid‐20th, and early 21st century), using archival and modern measurements (1854–1876; 1938–present). Daily and monthly averaged root‐mean‐square errors overall are 0.89°C and 0.77°C, respectively for the 1938–2018 period. Results suggest that annual averaged water temperature increased by 2.2°C ± 0.2°C since the 1850s, a rate of 1.3°C ± 0.1°C/century. Increased water temperatures are seasonally dependent. An increase of approximately 2.0°C ± 0.2°C/century occurs in the July–Dec time‐frame, while springtime trends are statistically insignificant. Rising temperatures change the probability of exceeding ecologically important thresholds; since the 1850s, the number of days with water temperatures over 20°C increased from ~5 to 60 per year, while the number below 2°C decreased from ~10 to 0 days/per year. Overall, the modern system is warmer, but exhibits less temperature variability. The reservoir system reduces sensitivity to short‐term atmospheric forcing. Statistical experiments within our modeling framework suggest that increased water temperature is driven by warming air temperatures (~29%), altered river flow (~14%), and water resources management (~57%).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global Climate Monitoring with the Eos Pm-Platform's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E)
The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) is being built by NASDA to fly on NASA's PM Platform (now called "Aqua") in December 2000. This is in addition to a copy of AMSR that will be launched on Japan's ADEOS-11 satellite in 2001. The AMSRs improve upon the window frequency radiometer heritage of the SSM[l and SMMR instruments. Major improvements over those instruments include channels spanning the 6.9 GHz to 89 GHz frequency range, and higher spatial resolution from a 1.6 m reflector (AMSR-E) and 2.0 m reflector (ADEOS-11 AMSR). The ADEOS-11 AMSR also will have 50.3 and 52.8 GHz channels, providing sensitivity to lower tropospheric temperature. NASA funds an AMSR-E Science Team to provide algorithms for the routine production of a number of standard geophysical products. These products will be generated by the AMSR-E Science Investigator-led Processing System (SIPS) at the Global Hydrology Resource Center (GHRC) in Huntsville, Alabama. While there is a separate NASDA-sponsored activity to develop algorithms and produce products from AMSR, as well as a Joint (NASDA-NASA) AMSR Science Team activity, here I will review only the AMSR-E Team's algorithms and how they benefit from the new capabilities that AMSR-E will provide. The U.S. Team's products will be archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Further information about AMSR-E can be obtained at http://www.jzhcc.msfc.nasa.Vov/AMSR.
Spencer, Roy W.↗
Self-consumption for energy communities in Spain: A regional analysis under the new legal framework
European climate polices acknowledge the role that energy communities can play in the energy transition. Self-consumption installations shared among those living in the same building are a good example of such energy communities. In this work, a regional analysis of optimal self-consumption installations under the new legal framework recently passed in Spain is performed. Results show that the optimal sizing of the installation leads to economic savings for self-consumers in all the territory, for both options with and without remuneration for energy surplus. A sensitivity analysis on technology costs revealed that batteries still require noticeably cost reductions to be cost-effective in a behind the meter self-consumption environment. In addition, solar compensation mechanisms make batteries less attractive in a scenario of low PV costs, since feeding PV surplus into the grid, yet less efficient, becomes more cost-effective. Furthermore, an improvement for the energy surplus remuneration policy in the context of the current legislation was proposed and analysed. It consists in the inclusion of the economic value of the avoided power losses in the remuneration.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways
Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Herein, we present an integrated framework to explore near-term (to 2030) transition risks and longer-term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2 °C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Aerosol Absorption in the Atmosphere: Perspectives from Global Model, Ground-Based Measurements, and Field Observations
Aerosol absorption in the atmosphere poses a major uncertainty in assessing the aerosol climate effects. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, and our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt. We compare the model calculated total aerosol optical thickness, extinction, and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia. We will examine the most sensitive factors in determining the aerosol absorption, and the consequences of assessing the aerosol radiative forcing and atmospheric heating associated with those factors.
Chin, Main↗
III-V Compound Detectors for CO2 DIAL Measurements
Profiling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is important for understanding the natural carbon cycle on Earth and its influence on global warming and climate change. Differential absorption lidar is a powerful remote sensing technique used for profiling and monitoring atmospheric constituents. Recently there has been an interest to apply this technique, at the 2 m wavelength, for investigating atmospheric CO2. This drives the need for high quality detectors at this wavelength. Although 2 m detectors are commercially available, the quest for a better detector is still on. The detector performance, regarding quantum efficiency, gain and associated noise, affects the DIAL signal-to-noise ratio and background signal, thereby influencing the instrument sensitivity and dynamic range. Detectors based on the III-V based compound materials shows a strong potential for such application. In this paper the detector requirements for a long range CO2 DIAL profiles will be discussed. These requirements were compared to newly developed III-V compound infrared detectors. The performance of ternary InGaSb pn junction devices will be presented using different substrates, as well as quaternary InGaAsSb npn structure. The performance study was based on experimental characterization of the devices dark current, spectral response, gain and noise. The final results are compared to the current state-of-the-art InGaAs technology. Npn phototransistor structure showed the best performance, regarding the internal gain and therefore the device signal-to-noise ratio. 2-micrometers detectivity as high as 3.9 x 10(exp 11) cmHz(sup 1/2)/W was obtained at a temperature of -20 C and 4 V bias voltage. This corresponds to a responsivity of 2650 A/W with about 60% quantum efficiency.
Refaat, Tamer F.↗
Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends
Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗