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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Increasing the Measured Effective Quantum Volume with Zero Noise Extrapolation

Quantum volume is a full-stack benchmark for near-term quantum computers. It quantifies the largest size of a square circuit which can be executed on the target device with reasonable fidelity. Error mitigation is a set of techniques intended to remove the effects of noise present in the computation of noisy quantum computers when computing an expectation value of interest. Effective quantum volume is a proposed metric that applies error mitigation to the quantum volume protocol to evaluate the effectiveness not only of the target device but also of the error mitigation algorithm. Digital zero-noise extrapolation is an error mitigation technique that estimates the noiseless expectation value using circuit folding to amplify errors by known scale factors and then extrapolating computed expectation values to the zero-noise limit. Here we demonstrate that zero-noise extrapolation, with global and local unitary folding with fractional scale factors, in conjunction with dynamical decoupling, can increase the effective quantum volume over the vendor-measured quantum volume. Specifically, we measure the effective quantum volume of four IBM Quantum superconducting processor units, obtaining values that are larger than the vendor-measured quantum volume on each device. This is the first such increase reported.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Risk Factors for Neovascular Glaucoma After Proton Beam Therapy of Uveal Melanoma: A Detailed Analysis of Tumor and Dose–Volume Parameters

Purpose: To determine neovascular glaucoma (NVG) incidence and identify contributing tumor and dosing factors in uveal melanoma patients treated with proton beam radiation therapy (PBRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 704 PBRT patients treated by a single surgeon (DHC) for uveal melanoma (1996-2010) were reviewed for NVG in our prospectively maintained database. All patients received 56 GyE in 4 fractions. Median follow-up was 58.3 months. Analyses included the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate NVG distributions, univariate log–rank tests, and Cox's proportional hazards multivariate analysis using likelihood ratio tests to identify independent risk factors of NVG among patient, tumor, and dose–volume histogram parameters. Results: The 5-year PBRT NVG rate was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.2%-15.9%). The 5-year rate of enucleation due to NVG was 4.9% (95% CI 3.4%-7.2%). Univariately, the NVG rate increased significantly with larger tumor diameter (P<.0001), greater height (P<.0001), higher T stage (P<.0001), and closer proximity to the disc (P=.002). Dose–volume histogram analysis revealed that if >30% of the lens or ciliary body received ≥50% dose (≥28 GyE), there was a higher probability of NVG (P<.0001 for both). Furthermore, if 100% of the disc or macula received ≥28 GyE, the NVG rate was higher (P<.0001 and P=.03, respectively). If both anterior and posterior doses were above specified cut points, NVG risk was highest (P<.0001). Multivariate analysis confirmed significant independent risk factors to include tumor height (P<.0001), age (P<.0001), %disc treated to ≥50% Dose (<100% vs 100%) (P=.0007), larger tumor diameter (P=.01), %lens treated to ≥90% Dose (0 vs >0%-30% vs >30%) (P=.01), and optic nerve length treated to ≥90% Dose (≤1 mm vs >1 mm) (P=.02). Conclusions: Our current PBRT patients experience a low rate of NVG and resultant enucleation compared with historical data. The present analysis shows that tumor height, diameter, and anterior as well as posterior critical structure dose–volume parameters may be used to predict NVG risk.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Unsteady thermotechnical model of a closed flat plate solar collector–storage tank system

The main provisions of the developed numerical unsteady model of the flat plate solar collector–storage tank (SC–ST) system are given. The model takes into account all of the main parameters of the SC (receiver parameters, radiative properties of the transparent fence for solar radiation, and thermophysical properties of the thermal insulation of the bottom) and the ST (thermophysical parameters of thermal insulation). An algorithm and a program for calculating the thermal properties of a closed SC–ST system have been developed based on this model in the Delphi language. The results of the calculated estimates of the time variation of water heating temperatures in the ST and the efficiency of the closed SC–ST system as a function of the ST volume are given for the case where the water temperature at the SC inlet is equal to the mean water temperature in the ST. The model and the program also make it possible to determine the time variation of temperatures of SC elements and water in individual sections along the length of the SC as well as the thermal losses of the SC sections. The model makes it possible to estimate the effect of the thermal properties of SC elements and the water velocity on the thermal properties of the SC–ST system. The program can be modified for the case of the open SC–ST system, i.e., where the water temperature at the SC inlet does not depend on the water temperature in the ST.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Supernovae as probes of cosmic parameters: estimating the bias from under-dense lines of sight

Correctly interpreting observations of sources such as type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) require knowledge of the power spectrum of matter on AU scales — which is very hard to model accurately. Because under-dense regions account for much of the volume of the universe, light from a typical source probes a mean density significantly below the cosmic mean. The relative sparsity of sources implies that there could be a significant bias when inferring distances of SNe Ia, and consequently a bias in cosmological parameter estimation. While the weak lensing approximation should in principle give the correct prediction for this, linear perturbation theory predicts an effectively infinite variance in the convergence for ultra-narrow beams. We attempt to quantify the effect typically under-dense lines of sight might have in parameter estimation by considering three alternative methods for estimating distances, in addition to the usual weak lensing approximation. We find in each case this not only increases the errors in the inferred density parameters, but also introduces a bias in the posterior value.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparison and Consensus Guidelines for Delineation of Clinical Target Volume for CT- and MR-Based Brachytherapy in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer

Objective: To create and compare consensus clinical target volume (CTV) contours for computed tomography (CT) and 3-Tesla (3-T) magnetic resonance (MR) image-based cervical-cancer brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Twenty-three experts in gynecologic radiation oncology contoured the same 3 cervical cancer brachytherapy cases: 1 stage IIB near-complete response (CR) case with a tandem and ovoid, 1 stage IIB partial response (PR) case with tandem and ovoid with needles, and 1 stage IB2 CR case with a tandem and ring applicator. The CT contours were completed before the MRI contours. These were analyzed for consistency and clarity of target delineation using an expectation maximization algorithm for simultaneous truth and performance level estimation (STAPLE), with κ statistics as a measure of agreement between participants. The conformity index was calculated for each of the 6 data sets. Dice coefficients were generated to compare the CT and MR contours of the same case. Results: For all 3 cases, the mean tumor volume was smaller on MR than on CT (P<.001). The κ and conformity index estimates were slightly higher for CT, indicating a higher level of agreement on CT. The Dice coefficients were 89% for the stage IB2 case with a CR, 74% for the stage IIB case with a PR, and 57% for the stage IIB case with a CR. Conclusion: In a comparison of MR-contoured with CT-contoured CTV volumes, the higher level of agreement on CT may be due to the more distinct contrast medium visible on the images at the time of brachytherapy. MR at the time of brachytherapy may be of greatest benefit in patients with large tumors with parametrial extension that have a partial or complete response to external beam. On the basis of these results, a 95% consensus volume was generated for CT and for MR. Online contouring atlases are available for instruction at (http://www.nrgoncology.org/Resources/ContouringAtlases/GYNCervicalBrachytherapy.aspx)

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Overheating Anomalies during Flight Test Due to the Base Bleeding

In this paper we present the results of the analytical and numerical studies of the plume interaction with the base flow in the presence of base out-gassing. The physics-based analysis and CFD modeling of the base heating for single solid rocket motor performed in this research addressed the following questions: what are the key factors making base flow so different from that in the Shuttle [1]; why CFD analysis of this problem reveals small plume recirculation; what major factors influence base temperature; and why overheating was initiated at a given time in the flight. To answer these questions topological analysis of the base flow was performed and Korst theory was used to estimate relative contributions of radiation, plume recirculation, and chemically reactive out-gassing to the base heating. It was shown that base bleeding and small base volume are the key factors contributing to the overheating, while plume recirculation is effectively suppressed by asymmetric configuration of the flow formed earlier in the flight. These findings are further verified using CFD simulations that include multi-species gas environment both in the plume and in the base. Solid particles in the exhaust plume (Al2O3) and char particles in the base bleeding were also included into the simulations and their relative contributions into the base temperature rise were estimated. The results of simulations are in good agreement with the temperature and pressure in the base measured during the test.

base bleeding↗

Preliminary technical results review of FY81 experiments. Volume 1: Fiscal year 1981/82 spring small grains pilot experiment

Technical progress made in the foreign commodity production forecasting for the advancement of spring small grains (SSG) area estimation is reported with emphasis on results achieved since the last AgRISTARS level semiannual review. Major objectives and accomplishments are reviewed and the experiment is described. The technical approach data assessment, and data systems used are considered. Results of the group approach comparison study are presented along with preliminary aggregation results for SSG processing procedures. The outlook for the future is assessed.

Source record↗

Small-Scale Drop Size Variability: Impact on Estimation of Cloud Optical Properties

Most cloud radiation models and conventional data processing techniques assume that the mean number of drops of a given radius is proportional to volume. The analysis of microphysical data on liquid water drop sizes shows that, for sufficiently small volumes, this proportionality breaks down; the number of cloud drops of a given radius is instead proportional to the volume raised to a drop size-dependent nonunit power. The coefficient of proportionality, a generalized drop concentration, is a function of the drop size. For abundant small drops the power is unity as assumed in the conventional approach. However, for rarer large drops, it falls increasingly below unity. This empirical fact leads to drop clustering, with the larger drops exhibiting a greater degree of clustering. The generalized drop concentration shows the mean number of drops per cluster, while the power characterizes the occurrence frequency of clusters. With a fixed total number of drops in a cloud, a decrease in frequency of clusters is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the generalized concentration. This initiates a competing process missed in the conventional models: an increase in the number of drops per cluster enhances the impact of rarer large drops on cloud radiation while a decrease in the frequency suppresses it. Because of the nonlinear relationship between the number of clustered drops and the volume, these two opposite tendencies do not necessarily compensate each other. The data analysis suggests that clustered drops likely have a stronger radiative impact compared to their unclustered counterpart; ignoring it results in underestimation of the contribution from large drops to cloud horizontal optical path.

Knyazikhin, Y.↗

INTERPRETING THE UNRESOLVED INTENSITY OF COSMOLOGICALLY REDSHIFTED LINE RADIATION

Intensity mapping experiments survey the spectrum of diffuse line radiation rather than detect individual objects at high signal-to-noise ratio. Spectral maps of unresolved atomic and molecular line radiation contain three-dimensional information about the density and environments of emitting gas and efficiently probe cosmological volumes out to high redshift. Intensity mapping survey volumes also contain all other sources of radiation at the frequencies of interest. Continuum foregrounds are typically ∼10{sup 2}–10{sup 3} times brighter than the cosmological signal. The instrumental response to bright foregrounds will produce new spectral degrees of freedom that are not known in advance, nor necessarily spectrally smooth. The intrinsic spectra of foregrounds may also not be well known in advance. We describe a general class of quadratic estimators to analyze data from single-dish intensity mapping experiments and determine contaminated spectral modes from the data themselves. The key attribute of foregrounds is not that they are spectrally smooth, but instead that they have fewer bright spectral degrees of freedom than the cosmological signal. Spurious correlations between the signal and foregrounds produce additional bias. Compensation for signal attenuation must estimate and correct this bias. A successful intensity mapping experiment will control instrumental systematics that spread variance into new modes, and it must observe a large enough volume that contaminant modes can be determined independently from the signal on scales of interest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Advanced vehicle systems assessment. Volume 3: Systems assessment

The systems analyses integrate the advanced component and vehicle characteristics into conceptual vehicles with identical performance (for a given application) and evaluates the vehicles in typical use patterns. Initial and life-cycle costs are estimated and compared to conventional reference vehicles with comparable technological advances, assuming the vehicles will be in competition in the early 1990s. Electric vans, commuter vehicles, and full-size vehicles, in addition to electric/heat-engine hybrid and fuel-cell powered vehicles, are addressed in terms of performance and economics. System and subsystem recommendations for vans and two-passenger commuter vehicles are based on the economic analyses in this volume.

Hardy, K.↗

A Stochastic Framework for Estimating Load Profiles at EV Fast Charging Stations

This paper formulates a methodology for estimating the average daily load profiles of EV fast charging stations over a planning horizon of five to ten years. The developed methodology uses historic vehicle registration data, state-level EV adoption targets, seasonal driving patterns, local demographics, competition, and traffic volume information to predict average station usage. Through Monte Carlo simulations, an average daily load profile is obtained for each month in the planning horizon, and prediction uncertainty is quantified. The proposed framework will facilitate the accurate estimation of energy and demand costs incurred by the charging station over the planning period, thereby informing return-on-investment calculations.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

Geophysical Monitoring of Ground Surface Deformation Associated with a Confined Aquifer Storage and Recovery Operation

A main issue in the storage of large volumes of fluids, mainly water and CO 2 , in the deep subsurface is to determine their field-scale-induced displacements and consequences on the mechanical behavior of the storage reservoir and surroundings. A quantifiable estimation of displacement can be made by combining the robust, cost-effective, and repeatable geophysical techniques of micro-gravimetry, differential global positioning system (DGPS), and differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR). These techniques were field tested and evaluated in an active large-volume aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) project in Pendleton, Oregon, USA, where three ASR wells are injecting up to 1.9 million m 3 /yr -1 into basalt aquifers to a depth of about 150 m. Injection and recovery of water at the wells was accompanied by significant gravity anomalies and vertical deformation of the ground surface localized to the immediate surroundings of the injection wells as evidenced by DGPS and gravity measurements collected in 2011. At a larger scale, and between 2011 and 2013, DInSAR monitoring of the Pendleton area suggests the occurrence of sub-centimetric deformation in the western part of the city and close to the injection locations associated with the ASR cycle. A numerical simulation of the effect of the water injection gives results in good agreement with the observations and confirms the validity of the approach, which could be deployed in similar geological contexts to look at the mechanical effects of water and gas injections. The gravity signal reflects deep phenomena and gives additional insight into the repartition of fluids in the subsurface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Entrainment of Juvenile and Adult American Shad at a Pumped Storage Facility

The American Shad Alosa sapidissima has been targeted for restoration to the upper Susquehanna River, and entrainment losses at hydroelectric facilities on the river, including the Muddy Run Pumped Storage Facility, are of concern for the potential growth of the American Shad population. Based on the integration of pumping volume, time of entrainment, and literature–reported diel emigration of juvenile American Shad, the entrainment rate (N = 145; 53 exposed to pumping) was estimated at 3.5%. The entrainment rate for adults (N = 507) was estimated at 0.3–3.9%. Using multistate mark–recapture models, the estimated entrainment probabilities (Ψ) of radio–tagged juveniles were higher during periods of extended pumping (>1 h; Ψ = 0.093; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.054–0.156) than at periods of no pumping or short–duration pumping (<1 h; Ψ < 0.0001; 95% CI = 0.0–0.001); the high extended pumping occurred between 2300 and 0600 hours. Entrainment probabilities for adults were low (Ψ < 0.02); the highest probability occurred for fish detected downstream of the intake during the peak portion of the run (Ψ = 0.015; 95% CI = 0.004–0.047). Entrainment probability for most adult fish did not differ from zero. The low values of Ψ for both life stages were attributed to (1) the deep location of the intake (intake ceiling >11.7 m below the water surface), (2) the surface orientation of American Shad (upper 3.1 m), (3) the low overlap between high–volume pumping and peak emigration/migration times, (4) the pumping volume relative to prevailing river flows, and (5) the prolonged, robust swimming speed of American Shad, particularly that of adults (>2.2 m/s), which exceeded the intake velocity (0.2–0.9 m/s). Entrainment of juveniles increased with co–occurrence of low incoming river flows, high pumping volume, and peak emigration times. Furthermore, quantification of migratory species’ entrainment at pumped storage facilities requires integration of diel migration/emigration times with the frequency, timing, and duration of pumping volume.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Single–Well Injection–Drift Test to Estimate Groundwater Velocity

A simple algebraic equation is presented here to estimate the magnitude of groundwater velocity based on data from a single-well injection-drift test thereby eliminating the time-consuming and costly extraction phase. A volume of tracer-amended water was injected by forced-gradient into a single well followed by monitoring of the conservative solute tracers under natural-gradient conditions as their upgradient portions drifted back through the well. The breakthrough curve data from the single well during the drift phase was analyzed to determine the mean travel times of the tracers. The estimated mean upgradient travel distance back through the single well and the mean travel times of the tracers were used in a simple algebraic equation to estimate groundwater velocity. The groundwater velocity based on the single-well injection-drift test was estimated to be approximately 0.64 ft per day. Two transects of observation wells were used to monitor the natural-gradient tracer transport downgradient of the injection well. The one-dimensional, or dual-well, transport of the tracer from the injection well to the nearest downgradient observation well indicated that the groundwater velocity was 0.55 ft per day. The two-dimensional, or multi-well, transport of the center of mass of the tracers indicated that the groundwater velocity was 0.60 ft per day; the dual- and multi-well results were in excellent agreement with those from the single-well and validated the simple algebraic equation. In conclusion, the new single-well method presented here is relatively simple, rapid, and does not require an extraction phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mass and Volume Optimization of Space Flight Medical Kits

Resource allocation is a critical aspect of space mission planning. All resources, including medical resources, are subject to a number of mission constraints such a maximum mass and volume. However, unlike many resources, there is often limited understanding in how to optimize medical resources for a mission. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulates outcomes and describes the impact of medical events in terms of lost crew time, medical resource usage, and the potential for medically required evacuation. Previously published work describes an approach that uses the IMM to generate optimized medical kits that maximize benefit to the crew subject to mass and volume constraints. We improve upon the results obtained previously and extend our approach to minimize mass and volume while meeting some benefit threshold. METHODS We frame the medical kit optimization problem as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing dynamic programming. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the medical kit mass and volume for a specified likelihood of evacuation or Crew Health Index (CHI) threshold. The algorithm was expanded to generate medical kits that maximize likelihood of evacuation or CHI subject to mass and volume constraints. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS In maximizing benefit to crew health subject to certain constraints, our algorithm generates medical kits that more closely resemble the unlimited-resource scenario than previous approaches which leverage medical risk information generated by the IMM. Our work here demonstrates that this algorithm provides an efficient and effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions and provides an effective means of addressing tradeoffs in medical resource allocations and crew mission success parameters.

Monte Carlo Method↗

Effects of Unmanned Aircraft Voice Communication Delay on En Route Air Traffic Management Operations

The present study investigated the effects of remotely piloted unmanned aircraft (UA) voice communication delay on air traffic management operations with different background sector traffic-volume levels. Three one-way UA voice delay lengths of 400, 900, and 2,000 milliseconds (ms) were tested, representing the currently estimated transmission delays for terrestrial, satellite communication (SATCOM), and long SATCOM Command and Control Link System, respectively. All delay values exceeded 390 ms, the FAA’s current requirement for the maximum communication latency in the National Airspace System. Eight retired en route air traffic controllers (ATCs) and eight remote pilots (RPs) participated in a human-in-the-loop simulation study, where a simulated UA flight transitioned through an Oakland en route low-altitude sector to a local non-towered airport. The results showed that, when the 2,000-ms voice delay was present, radio transmission step-ons and detect-and-avoid (DAA) alert level elevations increased. In addition, ATC workload, ATC acceptability for the UA, and RP acceptability for the DAA were negatively affected only when the UA had a 2,000-ms voice delay under the high traffic-volume condition, but not in the other conditions.

remotely piloted unmanned aircraft, voice delay, s↗

Interpreting The Unresolved Intensity Of Cosmologically Redshifted Line Radiation

Intensity mapping experiments survey the spectrum of diffuse line radiation rather than detect individual objects at high signal-to-noise ratio. Spectral maps of unresolved atomic and molecular line radiation contain three-dimensional information about the density and environments of emitting gas and efficiently probe cosmological volumes out to high redshift. Intensity mapping survey volumes also contain all other sources of radiation at the frequencies of interest. Continuum foregrounds are typically approximately 10(sup 2)-10(Sup 3) times brighter than the cosmological signal. The instrumental response to bright foregrounds will produce new spectral degrees of freedom that are not known in advance, nor necessarily spectrally smooth. The intrinsic spectra of fore-grounds may also not be well known in advance. We describe a general class of quadratic estimators to analyze data from single-dish intensity mapping experiments and determine contaminated spectral modes from the data themselves. The key attribute of foregrounds is not that they are spectrally smooth, but instead that they have fewer bright spectral degrees of freedom than the cosmological signal. Spurious correlations between the signal and foregrounds produce additional bias. Compensation for signal attenuation must estimate and correct this bias. A successful intensity mapping experiment will control instrumental systematics that spread variance into new modes, and it must observe a large enough volume that contaminant modes can be determined independently from the signal on scales of interest.

INTERPRETING↗

Rainfall estimation over oceans from scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and special sensor microwave/imager microwave data

The brightness temperature (T sub b) measured at 37 GHz shows fairly strong emission from rain, and only slight effects caused by scattering by ice above the rain clouds. At frequencies below 37 GHz, were the fov is larger and the volume extinction coefficient is weaker, it is found that the observations do not yield appreciable additional information about rain. At 85 GHz (fov = 15 km), where the volume extinction is considerably larger, direct information about rain below the clouds is usually masked. Based on the above ideas, 37 GHz observations with a 30 km fov from SMMR and SSM/I are selected to develop an empirical method for the estimation of rain rate. In this method, the statistics of the observed T sub b's at 37 GHz in a rain storm are related to the rain rate statistics in that storm. The underestimation of rain rate, arising from the inability of the radiometer to respond sensitively to rain rate above a given threshold, is rectified in this technique with the aid of two parameters that depend on the total water vapor content in the atmosphere. The retrieved rain rates compare favorably with radar observations and monthly mean global maps of rain derived from this technique over the oceans.

Prabhakara, C.↗