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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,711 records · Page 95
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

The transportation factor in site evaluations for spent nuclear fuel storage and disposal facilities - 15460

New facility siting studies will be necessary to fulfill the Blue Ribbon Commission (BRC) on America's Nuclear Future 2012 recommendation to develop consolidated interim storage (CIS) for spent nuclear fuel in the next decade. Future site evaluations for used nuclear fuel (UNF) storage and disposal facilities must address transportation requirements, especially access to mainline railroads, early in the site selection process. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in 2013 proposed a strategy for managing spent nuclear fuel in accordance with the BRC recommendations by establishing a pilot interim storage facility by 2021 and a consolidated interim storage facility by 2025. The authors demonstrate that currently available geographic information systems and already adopted siting criteria (defining favorable and unfavorable conditions) allow the identification of the transportation portion of a storage facility siting process to begin without delay. Ready access to the mainline rail system is absolutely critical since existing rail access, or easily constructed access, is a highly favorable condition for successful siting. Despite widespread rail abandonments over the past three decades, vast areas of the United States retain mainline rail service or could connect to existing mainlines by building new rail spurs of less than 25-50 miles. This precondition for transportation planning is critical. Planners need to start with the beginning - availability of rail transportation to and from the interim storage facility/facilities. A second step in transportation screening would be to evaluate those potential site locations within 50 miles of existing mainline railroads using other appropriate variables. This effort could begin with the application of the 1984 repository siting guidelines for transportation (10 CFR 960.5-2-7)[1]. Repository surface facilities have essentially the same transportation requirements as storage facilities. The guidelines in 10 CFR 960 provide a readily available template for evaluating sites based on transportation risks, impacts and costs. Initial site screening, after considering proximity to mainline railroads as the precursory step, should evaluate: 1) proximity to highly populated areas; 2) proximity to interstate highways; 3) proximity to environmentally sensitive areas and lands protected by federal, state, or tribal governments; and 4) proximity to military installations, hazardous materials facilities, or other facilities that might impact transportation safety and security.Several challenges exist which prevent effective transportation planning. The diversity of canister and cask types and SNF characteristics and conditions, the increasingly limited rail access at the shipping sites and the ease with which public attention can be marshalled against a waste management program, all suggest that future efforts need to identify potential storage sites that reduce transportation impacts and costs by reducing near-site transportation construction and reduce total system transportation impacts. This can most easily be accomplished by reducing shipping distances in a process that is easily defined and implemented. The paper concludes that the DOE should develop a site screening and evaluation program with transportation as a central consideration. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate Hessian accelerated structural optimization for stochastic electronic structure theories

In this work, we present an efficient energy-based method for structural optimization with stochastic electronic structure theories, such as diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (DMC). This method is based on robust line-search energy minimization in reduced parameter space, exploiting approximate but accurate Hessian information from a surrogate theory, such as density functional theory. The surrogate theory is also used to characterize the potential energy surface, allowing for simple but reliable ways to maximize statistical efficiency while retaining controllable accuracy. We demonstrate the method by finding the minimum DMC energy structures of the selected flake-like aromatic molecules, such as benzene, coronene, and ovalene, represented by 2, 6, and 19 structural parameters, respectively. In each case, the energy minimum is found within two parallel line-search iterations. The method is near-optimal for a line-search technique and suitable for a broad range of applications. It is easily generalized to any electronic structure method where forces and stresses are still under active development and implementation, such as diffusion Monte Carlo, auxiliary-field Monte Carlo, and stochastic configuration interaction, as well as deterministic approaches such as the random-phase approximation. Accurate and efficient means of geometry optimization could shed light on a broad class of materials and molecules, showing high sensitivity of induced properties to structural variables.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Orientation-dependent enhanced ionization in acetylene revealed by ultrafast cross-polarized pulse pairs

We investigate the orientation dependence of enhanced ionization (EI) during strong-field-driven nuclear motion in acetylene (C 2 ⁢H 2 ). Here, we both initiate and probe molecular dynamics in acetylene with intense 6-fs cross-polarized pulse pairs, separated by a variable delay. Following multiple ionization by the first pulse, acetylene undergoes simultaneous elongation of the carbon-carbon and carbon-hydrogen bonds, enabling further ionization by the second pulse and the formation of a very highly charged state, [C 2 ⁢H 2 ] 6+ . At small interpulse delays (< 20 fs), this enhancement occurs when the molecule is aligned to the probe pulse. Conversely, at large delays (> 40 fs), formation of [C 2 ⁢H 2 ] 6+ occurs when the molecule is aligned to the pump pulse. By analyzing the polarization and time dependence of sequentially ionized [C 2 ⁢H 2 ] 6+ , we resolve two transient alignments that both contribute to a large increase in the multiple ionization yield. In conclusion, this cross-polarized pulse pair scheme uniquely enables selective probing of deeply bound orbitals, providing new insights on orientation-dependent EI in highly charged hydrocarbons.

Atomic & molecular clusters↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of Deformation Heterogeneity During Shale Swelling Using Digital Image Correlation

Abstract Rock-fluid interactions in shale formations are one of the main sources of wellbore instability issues and inadequate stimulation performance. For better planning of fracturing operations and optimizing production from these reservoirs, it is important to understand the mechanisms behind these interactions. These issues are especially prevalent in clay-rich shales, such as Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, which is the subject of this study. Conventional techniques to quantify these shale-fluid interactions comprise of measuring swelling in powdered rock grains or measurement of deformation in the whole pieces of the core using a linear variable differential transformer and strain gages. However, the contribution from individual laminae to overall deformation cannot be evaluated using these methods. In this study, we developed an experimental setup to evaluate the spatial deformation in shale during interaction with water using digital image correlation (DIC). Deformation of two shale samples, with 34 wt% to 51 wt% clay content, was studied. White paint was used to generate a random speckle pattern on the specimen and then immersed in deionized water. The deformation process was captured using a digital camera and images were analyzed using DIC to quantify the deformation. The implementation of the DIC technique enables the visualization and quantification of spatial deformation in the specimen during interacting with water. The results show the localization of large strains in select laminations. The results provide a better understanding of shale deformation when interacting with water in comparison to traditional measurements that can provide only an average strain value.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-P-04: Implementation of Dose Monitoring Software: Successes and Pitfalls

Purpose: to successfully install a dose monitoring software (DMS) application to assist in CT protocol and dose management. Methods: Upon selecting the DMS, we began our implementation of the application. A working group composed of Medical Physics, Radiology Administration, Information Technology, and CT technologists was formed. On-site training in the application was supplied by the vendor. The decision was made to apply the process for all the CT protocols on all platforms at all facilities. Protocols were painstakingly mapped to the correct masters, and the system went ‘live’. Results: We are routinely using DMS as a tool in our Clinical Performance CT QA program. It is useful in determining the effectiveness of revisions to existing protocols, and establishing performance baselines for new units. However, the implementation was not without difficulty. We identified several pitfalls and obstacles which frustrated progress. Including: Training deficiencies, Nomenclature problems, Communication, DICOM variability. Conclusion: Dose monitoring software can be a potent tool for QA. However, implementation of the program can be problematic and requires planning, organization and commitment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Patterns of Precipitation Change and Climatological Uncertainty among CMIP5 Models, with a Focus on the Midlatitude Pacific Storm Track

Projections of modeled precipitation ( P ) change in global warming scenarios demonstrate marked intermodel disagreement at regional scales. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and maximum covariance analysis (MCA) are used to diagnose spatial patterns of disagreement in the simulated climatology and end-of-century P changes in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. The term principal uncertainty pattern (PUP) is used for any robust mode calculated when applying these techniques to a multimodel ensemble. For selected domains in the tropics, leading PUPs highlight features at the margins of convection zones and in the Pacific cold tongue. The midlatitude Pacific storm track is emphasized given its relevance to wintertime P projections over western North America. The first storm-track PUP identifies a sensitive region of disagreement in P increases over the eastern midlatitude Pacific where the storm track terminates, related to uncertainty in an eastward extension of the climatological jet. The second PUP portrays uncertainty in a zonally asymmetric meridional shift of storm-track P , related to uncertainty in the extent of a poleward jet shift in the western Pacific. Both of these modes appear to arise primarily from intermodel differences in the response to radiative forcing, distinct from sampling of internal variability. The leading storm-track PUPs for P and zonal wind change exhibit similarities to the leading uncertainty patterns for the historical climatology, indicating important and parallel sensitivities in the eastern Pacific storm-track terminus region. However, expansion coefficients for climatological uncertainties tend to be weakly correlated with those for end-of-century change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Genetic Variability of West Nile Virus in U.S. Blood Donors from the 2012 Epidemic Season

West Nile virus (WNV) is an arbovirus maintained in nature in a bird-mosquito enzootic cycle which can also infect other vertebrates including humans. WNV is now endemic in the United States (U.S.), causing yearly outbreaks that have resulted in an estimated total of 4–5 million human infections. Over 41,700 cases of West Nile disease, including 18,810 neuroinvasive cases and 1,765 deaths, were reported to the CDC between 1999 and 2014. In 2012, the second largest West Nile outbreak in the U.S. was reported, which caused 5,674 cases and 286 deaths. WNV continues to evolve, and three major WNV lineage I genotypes (NY99, WN02, and SW/WN03) have been described in the U.S. since introduction of the virus in 1999. We report here the WNV sequences obtained from 19 human samples acquired during the 2012 U.S. outbreak and our examination of the evolutionary dynamics in WNV isolates sequenced from 1999–2012. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to perform the phylogenetic analyses. Selection pressure analyses were performed with the HyPhy package using the Datamonkey web-server. Using different codon-based and branch-site selection models, we detected a number of codons subjected to positive pressure in WNV genes. Thirteen of the 19 completely sequenced isolates from 10 U.S. states were genetically similar, sharing up to 55 nucleotide mutations and 4 amino acid substitutions when compared with the prototype isolate WN-NY99. Altogether, these analyses showed that following a brief contraction in 2008–2009, WNV genetic divergence in the U.S. continued to increase in 2012, and that closely related variants were found across a broad geographic range of the U.S., coincident with the second-largest WNV outbreak in U.S. history.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A thermodynamically consistent finite strain phase field approach to ductile fracture considering multi-axial stress states

Phase field models for ductile fracture have gained significant attention in the last two decades due to their ability in implicitly tracking the nucleation and propagation of cracks. However, most crack phase field formulations for elastoplastic solids focus only on the effects of plastic deformation, and do not consider the different multi-axial stress states that may arise in practical designs. In this work, a thermodynamically consistent phase field approach coupled with finite strain plasticity, considering multi-axial stress states is presented. In order to account for the coupling between plasticity and stress states, the Stress-Weighted Ductile Fracture Model (SWDFM) is utilized. The SWDFM represents a criterion for predicting ductile crack initiation under both monotonic and cyclic loadings based on histories of an internal plastic variable, stress triaxiality, and the Lode angle parameter. The excellent performance of the SWDFM for predicting ductile crack initiation motivates for its incorporation into a phase field approach for predicting both crack initiation and propagation through degradation of the fracture toughness. Moreover, based on the second law of thermodynamics, exact requirements are imposed on the rate at which the fracture toughness can evolve. Here, a novel function for degrading the plastic yield surface during the evolution of damage is introduced. This function, in line with experimental observations, leads to an accumulation of plastic deformation in damaged regions of a solid, and avoids numerical instabilities arising from concentrations of large plastic deformations in severely damaged regions. For validating the proposed model, results of computational simulations are compared to data from selected tests considering different multi-axial stress states. Comparisons of the numerical results with data from laboratory experiments demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven selection of stiff chemistry ODE solver in operator-splitting schemes

Most computational fluid dynamics simulations of practical combustion applications employ operator-splitting schemes, where chemistry and transport are separated and integrated with distinct numerical methods. The changes in composition due to chemistry are evaluated by solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) in each cell of the computational domain, which typically dominates the computational cost when detailed chemistry is considered. In this work, a data-driven approach for the selection of chemistry ODE solvers in operator-splitting schemes is presented. Neural networks are used to predict the ODE solvers CPU times and errors for a given thermochemical state. This allows the selection of an optimal ODE solver on a cell-by-cell, timestep-by-timestep basis. The models are trained using a wide set of thermochemical states generated through partially-stirred reactors and flames simulations. The methodology is validated by quantifying the prediction errors, the classification accuracy, and the computational speedup. The model predicts the optimal ODE solver for 70 to 95% of the validation cases and decreases the computional cost by a factor of 3 or more. The generalizability of the methodology to different chemical mechanisms and different fuels is assessed and it is shown that the model’s performance is only slightly degraded and its applicability is significantly enhanced if the inputs to the neural networks are restricted to a small set of thermochemical state variables present in most chemical mechanisms. In conclusion, the models are used in an homogeneous reactor case and a multi-dimensional CFD simulation of a diesel spray at high pressure where a speedup of more than 3 is achieved.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Improved instrumentation for intensity-, wavelength-, temperature-, and magnetic field-resolved photoconductivity spectroscopy

We report instrumentation for photovoltage and photocurrent spectroscopy over a larger continuous range of wavelengths, temperatures, and applied magnetic fields than other instruments described in the literature: 350 nm≤λ≤1700 nm, 1.8 K≤T≤300 K, and B≤9 T. This instrument uses a modulated monochromated incoherent light source with total power<30 μW in combination with an LED in order to probe selected regions of non-linear responses while maintaining low temperatures and avoiding thermal artifacts. The instrument may also be used to measure a related property, the photomagnetoresistance. We demonstrate the importance of normalizing measured responses for variations in light power and describe a rigorous process for performing these normalizations. We discuss several circuits suited to measuring different types of samples and provide analysis for converting measured values into physically relevant properties. Uniform approaches to measurement of these photoproperties are essential for reliable quantitative comparisons between emerging new materials with energy applications. - Highlights: • A novel instrument for measuring photoconductivity and photocurrents of materials and devices. • Continuous parameter space: 350 nm≤λ≤1700, 1.8 K≤T≤300 K, and B≤9 T. • Methodology for treating non-linear responses and variable lamp intensity. • Mathematical detail for extracting properties of materials from measured values is provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing the connection between computation and experiments in electrocatalysis

Combining computational and experimental methods is a powerful approach to understand the variables that govern catalyst performance and ultimately design improved materials. However, the effectiveness of this approach rests on the strength of the relationships between calculated parameters and experimental measurements. These relationships are complicated by the intricacy and dynamic behaviour of catalytic active sites, and by the non-trivial relationship between calculated reaction energetics and observed rates. In this Perspective, we highlight opportunities to enhance the connection between computation and experiment in electrocatalysis. These include measuring the intrinsic kinetic behaviour of catalysts, creating precise models for the active site and its environment, and forming clear relationships between calculated reaction energetics and observed rates. As experimental and computational methods continue to become more powerful, clear connections between the two will maximize their utility to guide the design of efficient and selective electrocatalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tunable-fidelity wave functions for the ab initio description of scattering and reactions

Here, the no-core shell model (NCSM) is an ab initio method that solves the nuclear many-body problem by expanding the many-particle wave function into a (typically) harmonic oscillator basis and minimizing the energy to obtain the expansion coefficients. Extensions of the NCSM, such as its coupling with microscopic-cluster basis states, further allow for an ab initio treatment of light-ion nuclear reactions of interest for both astrophysics and nuclear technology applications. A downside of the method is the exponential scaling of the basis size with increasing number of nucleons and excitation quanta, which limits its applicability to mass A ≲ 16 nuclei, except for variants where the basis is further down-selected via some truncation scheme. We consider a basis selection method for the NCSM that was first introduced in the context of the large-scale shell model and captures the essential degrees of freedom of the nuclear wave function leading to a favorable complexity scaling for calculations and enabling ab initio reaction calculations in sd-shell nuclei. The particle configurations within the NCSM basis are ordered based on their contribution to the first moment of the Hamiltonian matrix that results from the projection onto the many-body basis. The truncation scheme then consists in retaining only the lowest-first-moment configurations, which typically contain only few many-body basis states (Slater determinants). As the energy threshold above which configurations are disregarded is increased, the size of the basis becomes an almost-continuous variable, allowing for tunable fidelity in the obtained wave functions. The resulting wave functions can then be used directly in ab initio reaction calculations. We present calculations for 7 Li and n + 12 C scattering using nucleon-nucleon interactions derived from chiral effective field theory and softened using the similarity renormalization group method. The obtained energy levels invariably demonstrate exponential convergence with the size of the basis, and we find improved convergence in scattering calculations. To demonstrate the possibilities enabled by the approach, we also present a first calculation for the scattering of neutrons from 24 Mg. The method presented in this work appears promising for future studies of nuclei with mass A > 16, opening multiple future research directions impacting both nuclear astrophysics and nuclear technology applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Salinity–induced limits to mangrove canopy height

Aim: Mangrove canopy height is a key metric to assess tidal forests' resilience in the face of climate change. In terrestrial forests, tree height is primarily determined by water availability, plant hydraulic design, and disturbance regime. However, the role of water stress remains elusive in tidal environments, where saturated soils are prevalent, and salinity can substantially affect the soil water potential. Location: Global. Time Period: The canopy height dataset provides a global snapshot of the maximum mangrove height geographical distribution for the year 2000. Climate and environmental variables extend over the period 1970–2018. Major Taxa Studied: Mangroves. Methods: We use global observations of maximum canopy height, species richness, air temperature, and seawater salinity—a proxy of soil water salt concentration—to explore the causal link between salinity and mangrove stature. Results: Our findings suggest that salt stress limits mangrove height. High salinity favours more salt-tolerant species, narrowing the spectrum of viable traits. Highly salt-tolerant mangroves have evolved to cope with high salt concentrations in the soil, but this adaptation comes at a cost. They typically have lower rates of photosynthesis and growth, resulting in reduced productivity and smaller stature compared to more salt-sensitive mangrove species. This suggests a causal link between salinity, biodiversity, and tree height, where high salinity selects for more salt-tolerant species that tend to be less productive and shorter. Conclusions: We hypothesize that the salinity-induced limit to mangrove canopy height is the direct result of a reduction of primary productivity, an increment in the risk of xylem cavitation, and an indirect consequence of the decrease in biodiversity. As sea-level rise enhances coastal salinisation, failure to account for these effects can lead to incorrect estimates of future carbon stocks in Tropical coastal ecosystems and endanger preservation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Testing of Strategies for the Acceleration of the Cost Optimization

The general problem addressed in the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES) project is finding the optimum economical dispatch (ED) and capacity planning solutions for the hybrid energy systems. In the present test-problem configuration, the N-R HES unit is composed of three electrical power-generating components, i.e. the Balance of Plant (BOP), the Secondary Energy Source (SES), and the Energy Storage (ES). In addition, there is an Industrial Process (IP), which is devoted to hydrogen generation. At this preliminary stage, the goal is to find the power outputs of each one of the N-R HES unit components (BOP, SES, ES) and the IP hydrogen production level that maximizes the unit profit by simultaneously satisfying individual component operational constraints. The optimization problem is meant to be solved in the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The dynamic response of the N-R HES unit components is simulated by using dedicated object-oriented models written in the Modelica modeling language. Though this code coupling provides for very accurate predictions, the ensuing optimization problem is characterized by a very large number of solution variables. To ease the computational burden and to improve the path to a converged solution, a method to better estimate the initial guess for the optimization problem solution was developed. The proposed approach led to the definition of a suitable Monte Carlo-based optimization algorithm (called the preconditioner), which provides an initial guess for the optimal N-R HES power dispatch and the optimal installed capacity for each one of the unit components. The preconditioner samples a set of stochastic power scenarios for each one of the N-R HES unit components, and then for each of them the corresponding value of a suitably defined cost function is evaluated. After having simulated a sufficient number of power histories, the configuration which ensures the highest profit is selected as the optimal one. The component physical dynamics are represented through suitable ramp constraints, which considerably simplify the numerical solving. In order to test the capabilities of the proposed approach, in the present report, the dispatch problem only is tackled, i.e. a reference unit configuration is assumed, and each one of the N-R HES unit components is assumed to have a fixed installed capacity. As for the next steps, the main improvement will concern the operation strategy of the ES facility. In particular, in order to describe a more realistic battery commitment strategy, the ES operation will be regulated according to the electricity price forecasts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Field Evaluation of the High Efficiency Dehumidification System (HEDS) at the Timken Museum of Art - Summary of Measurement and Verification (M&V) Results from Summer 2023

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is performing a measurement and verification (M&V) assessment of the Conservant High Efficiency Dehumidification System (HEDS) at the Timken Museum of Art in San Diego, California. The HEDS was selected for evaluation by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) High Impact Technology Catalyst (HIT) evaluation program in 2022. This report documents recently completed analysis of data collected as an initial assessment of the HEDS system performance. Data was collected for the summer M&V during several weeks in August and September 2023 while operating the Timken Museum's HVAC system in several operating modes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generating An Advanced Cross-section Library For HTGR Pebble Bed Depletion Calculations Using Reduced-Order Model Generation Techniques

For code development, Advanced Reactor Technologies - Gas Cooled Reactors Program (ART-GCR) rely on a collaboration with the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, but the cross sections generation and the methodology definition is part of this program area goals. Based on previous studies in FY23, the size of microscopic cross section libraries increases rapidly with the number of tabulations, requiring significant amount of memory and drastically slowing down the Griffin calculations when evaluating cross sections via the multivariate linear interpolation approach. Rising to these challenges, this work investigates constructing Reduced-order Models (ROMs) for the multi-group microscopic cross sections to accelerate the cross section evaluation in Griffin. A database of multigroup cross sections is first collected considering all possible parameters that a designer could change for optimization. Down-selection of the ROM techniques afterward shows Deep Neural Network (DNN) as the best candidate when jointly consider memory efficiency, predictive accuracy, computational cost, scalability, flexibility and ease of implementation of the algorithms in comparison to the multidimensional interpolation. This work develops a specific interface that enables the cross section predictions using pre-trained DNN models into Griffin leveraging the existing ROM capabilities. DNNs have been trained for all isotopes for use in Griffin. Preliminary Griffin testing shows that DNNs exhibit exceptional predictive accuracy and the use of DNNs provides orders of magnitude improvement in memory efficiency compared to conventional interpolation techniques. With such ROM techniques, it holds great promise to further increase the fidelity of the Pebble Bed Reactor (PBR) simulation by increasing the number of tabulations/state variables during cross section evaluation, while maintaining the computational cost affordable in Griffin.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Selecting a Classification Ensemble and Detecting Process Drift in an Evolving Data Stream

We characterize the commercial behavior of a group of companies in a common line of business using a small ensemble of classifiers on a stream of records containing commercial activity information. This approach is able to effectively find a subset of classifiers that can be used to predict company labels with reasonable accuracy. Performance of the ensemble, its error rate under stable conditions, can be characterized using an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) statistic. The behavior of the EWMA statistic can be used to monitor a record stream from the commercial network and determine when significant changes have occurred. Results indicate that larger classification ensembles may not necessarily be optimal, pointing to the need to search the combinatorial classifier space in a systematic way. Results also show that current and past performance of an ensemble can be used to detect when statistically significant changes in the activity of the network have occurred. The dataset used in this work contains tens of thousands of high level commercial activity records with continuous and categorical variables and hundreds of labels, making classification challenging.

Ensemble classifiers↗
DOE OSTI2017

Power demand risk models on milling machines

The measurement of power demand risks in manufacturing power systems will benefit manufacturers and the wider society. If the risks can be characterized using manufacturing parameters, manufacturers can better control risks originating in those parameters, select less power-risky production plans, and reduce utility costs and resource consumption. The measurement of risk can also help manufacturers and power suppliers to protect their power systems from unexpected disturbances. Existing measures of risk, however, do not consider time duration, and thus cannot accurately quantify the risks in manufacturing power systems; the risks of a period of high power demand must be evaluated with the duration of the surge. Therefore, new methods of measuring power demand risks are proposed, adapting measures drawn from the field of finance. With a focus on milling operations, processing power is shown to be a function of processing amount and processing time, and a power demand distribution is directly derived as a joint distribution of and A and T. A bivariate random variable model with copulas is applied to examine the correlation in the joint distribution. Then, based on evaluation of a probability distribution of power demand from and, new risk measures are introduced. Herein illustrative examples are provided to show how the proposed measures can quantify the power demand risks from milling machines, based on manufacturing parameters. Certain manufacturing parameters are found to affect overall power demand risks, including i) raw material type, ii) variability in processing time, and iii) correlation between and. In the examples, these three factors increase power demand risks by up to 108%, 67%, and 1% respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗