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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Lidar backscattering measurements of background stratospheric aerosols

A comparative lidar-dustsonde experiment was conducted in San Angelo, Texas, in May 1974 in order to estimate the uncertainties in stratospheric-aerosol backscatter for the NASA Langley 48-inch lidar system. The lidar calibration and data-analysis procedures are discussed. Results from the Texas experiment indicate random and systematic uncertainties of 35 and 63 percent, respectively, in backscatter from a background stratospheric-aerosol layer at 20 km.

Remsberg, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Measurement of diurnal and semidiurnal rotational variations and tidal parameters of Earth

We discuss the determination of diurnal and semidiurnal variations in the rotation rate and the direction of rotation axis of Earth from the analysis of 8 years of very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data. This analysis clearly show that these variations are largely periodic and tidally driven; that is, the periods of the variations correspond to the periods of the largest lunar and solar tides. For rotation rate variations, expressed in terms of changes in universal time (UT), the tidal lines with the largest observed signals are O1 (amplitude 23.5 microseconds in time (microseconds), period 25.82 solar hours); KL (18.9 microseconds, 23.93 hours); M2 (17.9 microseconds, 12.54 hours); and S2 (8.6 microseconds, 12.00 hours). For variations in the direction of the rotation axis (polar motion), significant signals exist in the retrograde semidiurnal band at the M2 and S2 tides (amplitudes 265 and 119 microarc seconds (microarc seconds, respectively); the prograde diurnal band at the O1, K1, and P1 tides (amplitudes 199, 152, and 60 microarc seconds, respectively); and the prograde semidiurnal band at the M2 and K2 tides (amplitudes 58 and 39 microarc seconds, respectively). Variations in the retrograde diurnal band are represented by corrections with previous estimates except that a previously noted discrepancy in the 13.66-day nutation (corresponding to the O1 tide) is largely removed in this new analysis. We estimate that the standard deviations of these estimates are 1.0 microseconds for the UT1 variations and 14-16 microarc seconds for the polar motion terms. These uncertainties correspond to surface displacements of approximately 0.5 mm. From the analysis of atmospheric angular momentum data we conclude that variations in UT1 excited by the atmosphere with subdaily periods are small (approximately 1 microsecond). We find that the average radial tidal displacements of the VLBI sites in the diurnal band are largely consistent with known deficiencies in current tidal models, i.e., deficiencies of up to 0.9 mm in the treatment of the free core nutation resonance. In the semidiurnal band, our analysis yields estimates of the second-degree harmonic radial Love number h(sub 2) at the M2 tide of 0.604 + i0.005 +/- 0.002. The most likely explanation for the rotational variations are the effects of ocean tides, but there may also be some contributions from atmospheric tides, the effects of triaxiality of Earth, and the equatorial second-degree-harmonic components of the core- mantle boundary.

Herring, Thomas A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of bank vegetation impacts on the flood flow field in the American River, California, using large‐eddy simulations

Bank vegetation plays a key role in both hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of natural rivers; however, these effects are often unaccounted for in the computational flow dynamics of natural waterways. Recent studies using the large‐eddy simulation (LES), however, have attempted to gain insights into the impacts of bank vegetation on the mean flow field of the natural rivers using a vegetation model, which applies a sink term to the momentum equations of motion. This approach accounts for the effects of the vegetation and provides a practical approach to account for the complex patches of bank vegetation in large‐scale rivers. To implement the vegetation model, a drag coefficient reflecting the overall resistance of vegetal structures to the flow is needed, but due to the lack of calibrated data and range of size, density and type of vegetation, this parameter can be a significant source of uncertainty in the model results. Here, in this study, we use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to investigate the hydrodynamics and bed shear results when a bank vegetation is incorporated in an LES model. To this end, we used the polynomial chaos expansion and Monte Carlo sampling techniques to determine the uncertainties associated with the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and from uncertainties in the bed roughness and inflow discharge. The UQ analysis provided spatially varying confidence levels for the spanwise and vertical distribution of velocity magnitude and for the bed shear stress distributions. In addition, Sobol indices were computed to indicate the relative influence that each parameter had on the overall uncertainty. In general, it was found that uncertainty in flow discharge was the dominant source of uncertainty; however, the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and the bed roughness parameter also made significant contribution to the uncertainty near the banks and bed, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Geothermal Artificial Intelligence for geothermal exploration

Exploration of geothermal resources involves analysis and management of a large number of uncertainties, which makes investment and operations decisions challenging. Remote Sensing (RS), Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) have potential in managing the challenges of geothermal exploration. In this paper, we present a methodology that integrates RS, ML and AI to create an initial assessment of geothermal potential, by resorting to known indicators of geothermal areas namely mineral markers, surface temperature, faults and deformation. We demonstrated the implementation of the method in two sites (Brady and Desert Peak geothermal sites) that are close to each other but have different characteristics (Brady having clear surface manifestations and Desert Peak being a blind site). Here, we processed various satellite images and geospatial data for mineral markers, temperature, faults and deformation and then implemented ML methods to obtain pattern of surface manifestation of geothermal sites. We developed an AI that uses patterns from surface manifestations to predict geothermal potential of each pixel. We tested the Geothermal AI using independent data sets obtaining accuracy of 92-95%; also tested the Geothermal AI trained on one site by executing it for the other site to predict the geothermal / non-geothermal delineation, the Geothermal AI performed quite well in prediction with 72-76% accuracy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of subsurface transport processes of delayed gas signatures applicable to underground nuclear explosions

Radioactive gas signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) result from gas-migration processes occurring in the subsurface. The processes considered in this study either drive or retard upward migration of gases from the detonation cavity. The relative importance of these processes is evaluated by simulating subsurface transport in a dual-permeability medium for the multi-tracer Noble Gas Migration Experiment (NGME) originally intended to study some aspects of transport from a UNE. For this experiment, relevant driving processes include weak two-phase convection driven by the geothermal gradient, over pressuring of the detonation cavity, and barometric pumping while gas sorption, dissolution, radioactive decay, and usually diffusion represent retarding processes. From deterministic simulations we found that over-pressuring of the post-detonation chimney coupled with barometric pumping produced a synergistic effect amplifying the tracer-gas reaching the surface. Bounding simulations indicated that the sorption and dissolution of gases, tending to retard transport, were much smaller than anticipated by earlier laboratory studies. The NGME observations themselves show that differences in gas diffusivity have a larger effect on influencing upward transport than do the combined effects of tracer-gas sorption and dissolution, which is consistent with a Sobol’ sensitivity analysis. Both deterministic simulations and those considering parametric uncertainties of transport-related properties predict that the excess in concentration of SF 6 compared to 127 Xe as might be captured in small volumetric samples should be much smaller than the order-of-magnitude contrast found in the large-volume gas samples taken at the site. While extraction of large-volume subsurface gas samples is shown to be capable of distorting in situ gas compositions, the highly variable injection rate of SF 6 into the detonation cavity relative to that of 127 Xe at the start of the field experiment is the most likely explanation for the large difference in observed concentrations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parametric Study of the Vacuum Permeator for the Tritium Extraction eXperiment

Tritium breeding is a critical component of any self-sustaining future fusion reactor. The liquid metal eutectic, PbLi, is of particular interest as a tritium breeder material due to its favorable thermophysical and neutronic properties. One of the several remaining challenges facing PbLi breeder blankets is the need to design and validate a highly efficient tritium extraction system. The vacuum permeator is a promising extraction concept that utilizes tritium permeation through a highly permeable metal membrane. The Tritium Extraction eXperiment (TEX) is a forced-convection PbLi loop constructed to investigate tritium extraction from PbLi with vacuum permeators. Accurate thermal-hydraulic and tritium transport models are required to establish appropriate test matrices, predict experiment outcomes, and analyze data. However, the hydrogen transport properties of PbLi and permeator materials have large uncertainties. A database is collected, and a parametric analysis is conducted on the effect of hydrogen transport material properties: diffusivity of H in PbLi and permeator, solubility of H in PbLi and permeator, and permeator surface recombination constant on the expected tritium extraction efficiency for a vacuum permeator installed in TEX. As a result, we observe solubility of H in PbLi and the permeator and the recombination constant of the permeator have the largest effect on the extraction efficiency.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Lyman- α forest from LBGs: First 3D correlation measurement with DESI and prospects for cosmology

The Lyman-α (Lyα) forest is a key tracer of large-scale structure at redshifts z > 2, traditionally studied using the spectra of luminous but relatively rare quasars. In this work, we explore the viability of using the fainter yet significantly more abundant Lyman Break Galaxies (LBGs) as alternative background sources for Lyα forest studies. We analyze 4,151 Lyα forest skewers extracted from LBG spectra obtained in the DESI pilot surveys conducted in the COSMOS and XMM-LSS fields. From this dataset, we present the first measurement of the Lyα forest auto-correlation function derived exclusively from LBG spectra, probing comoving separations up to 48 h -1 Mpc at an effective redshift of z eff = 2.70. The measured LBG Lyα forest auto-correlation is consistent with that derived from DESI DR2 quasar Lyα forest spectra at a comparable redshift, validating the use of LBGs as reliable background sources for Lyα forest analyses. In addition, we measure the cross-correlation between the LBG Lyα forest and the positions of 13,362 galaxies, demonstrating that this observable serves as a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the precision and accuracy of galaxy redshift estimates, and for identifying and correcting systematic offsets. Finally, using both synthetic LBG spectra and Fisher matrix forecasts, we show that a future wide-area survey covering ∼5,000 deg 2 , targeting 1,000 LBGs per square degree at signal-to-noise levels comparable to our sample, could enable LBG-based Lyα forest baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements with expected uncertainties of σ α ISO = 0.4% (isotropic) and σ α AP = 1.3% (Alcock-Paczynski). This performance is further enhanced when combining the BAO analysis with a Lyα forest Full Shape (FS) approach, yielding a predicted uncertainty of σ α ISO FS = 0.6%. These results open a new avenue for precision cosmology at high redshift using the Lyα forest in dense LBG samples.

Lyman alpha forest↗
DOE OSTI2022

The physical origin of dark energy constraints from rubin observatory and CMB-S4 lensing tomography

ABSTRACT We seek to clarify the origin of constraints on the dark energy equation of state parameter from CMB lensing tomography, that is the combination of galaxy clustering and the cross-correlation of galaxies with CMB lensing in a number of redshift bins. We focus on the analytic understanding of the origin of the constraints. Dark energy information in these data arises from the influence of three primary relationships: distance as a function of redshift (geometry), the amplitude of the power spectrum as a function of redshift (growth), and the power spectrum as a function of wavenumber (shape). We find that the effects from geometry and growth play a significant role and partially cancel each other out, while the shape effect is unimportant. We also show that Dark Energy Task Force figure of merit forecasts from the combination of LSST galaxies and CMB-S4 lensing are comparable to the forecasts from cosmic shear in the absence of the CMB lensing map, thus providing an important independent check. Compared to the forecasts with the LSST galaxies alone, combining CMB lensing and LSST clustering information increases the FoM by roughly a factor of 3–4 in the optimistic scenario where systematics are fully under control. We caution that achieving these forecasts will likely require a full analysis of higher-order biasing, photometric redshift uncertainties, and stringent control of other systematic limitations, which are outside the scope of this work, whose primary purpose is to elucidate the physical origin of the constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The two-point correlation function covariance with fewer mocks

We present FITCOV an approach for accurate estimation of the covariance of two-point correlation functions that requires fewer mocks than the standard mock-based covariance. This can be achieved by dividing a set of mocks into jackknife regions and fitting the correction term first introduced in Mohammad & Percival (2022), such that the mean of the jackknife covariances corresponds to the one from the mocks. This extends the model beyond the shot-noise limited regime, allowing it to be used for denser samples of galaxies. We test the performance of our fitted jackknife approach, both in terms of accuracy and precision, using lognormal mocks with varying densities and approximate EZmocks mimicking the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument LRG and ELG samples in the redshift range of z = [0.8, 1.1]. We find that the Mohammad–Percival correction produces a bias in the two-point correlation function covariance matrix that grows with number density and that our fitted jackknife approach does not. We also study the effect of the covariance on the uncertainty of cosmological parameters by performing a full-shape analysis. We demonstrate that our fitted jackknife approach based on 25 mocks can recover unbiased and as precise cosmological parameters as the ones obtained from a covariance matrix based on 1000 or 1500 mocks, while the Mohammad–Percival correction produces uncertainties that are twice as large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detection of the significant impact of source clustering on higher order statistics with DES Year 3 weak gravitational lensing data

We measure the impact of source galaxy clustering on higher order summary statistics of weak gravitational lensing data. By comparing simulated data with galaxies that either trace or do not trace the underlying density field, we show that this effect can exceed measurement uncertainties for common higher order statistics for certain analysis choices. We evaluate the impact on different weak lensing observables, finding that third moments and wavelet phase harmonics are more affected than peak count statistics. Using Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data, we construct null tests for the source-clustering-free case, finding a p-value of p = 4 × 10 −3 (2.6σ) using third-order map moments and p = 3 × 10 −11 (6.5σ) using wavelet phase harmonics. The impact of source clustering on cosmological inference can be either included in the model or minimized through ad hoc procedures (e.g. scale cuts). We verify that the procedures adopted in existing DES Y3 cosmological analyses were sufficient to render this effect negligible. Failing to account for source clustering can significantly impact cosmological inference from higher order gravitational lensing statistics, e.g. higher order N-point functions, wavelet-moment observables, and deep learning or field-level summary statistics of weak lensing maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating Z 2 lattice gauge theory on a quantum computer

The utility of quantum computers for simulating lattice gauge theories is currently limited by the noisiness of the physical hardware. Various quantum error mitigation strategies exist to reduce the statistical and systematic uncertainties in quantum simulations via improved algorithms and analysis strategies. We perform quantum simulations of Z 2 gauge theory with matter to study the efficacy and interplay of different error mitigation methods: readout error mitigation, randomized compiling, rescaling, and dynamical decoupling. We compute Minkowski correlation functions in this confining gauge theory and extract the mass of the lightest spin-1 state from fits to their time dependence. Quantum error mitigation extends the range of times over which our correlation function calculations are accurate by a factor of 6 and is therefore essential for obtaining reliable masses.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Conditional diffusion machine-learning framework for mapping valence electron distribution from convergent beam electron diffraction

Quantitative convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) enables determination of aspherical valence electron distributions through refinement of low-order structure factors, which are highly sensitive to chemical bonding and charge density variations. However, conventional quantitative CBED (QCBED) requires solving a highly nonlinear inverse problem with many coupled parameters, and computationally intensive dynamical diffraction calculations, making it time-consuming and difficult to apply to complex systems. More broadly, reconstructing charge density and orbital electron distribution from diffraction data has long been a central challenge in both x-ray and electron crystallography. Here, in this study, we introduce an artificial-intelligence (AI)-based framework that replaces traditional refinement with a data-driven inverse solver. Using a large synthetic CBED dataset generated by Bloch-wave simulations, we train a conditional diffusion model to directly infer crystal structural parameters and multipole density formalism parameters, and hence valence electron distributions, from CBED patterns alone. By learning from forward simulations across realistic parameter space, the model effectively solves the inverse problem. Compared with direct regression approaches, the diffusion-based framework provides posterior parameter distributions for rigorous uncertainty quantification while preserving quantitative fidelity and reducing analysis time by orders of magnitude. By eliminating the need for external single-crystal x-ray diffraction data and complex nonlinear refinement, this approach enables practical, high-throughput, and in situ quantitative CBED, enabling real-time mapping of valence electron distributions and their correlation with functional responses in quantum and energy materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

LOGOS

LOGOS is a software package which contains a set of discrete optimization models that can be employed for capital budgeting optimization problems. More specifically, provided a set of items (characterized by cost and reward values) and constraints, these models select the best combination of items which maximizes overall reward and satisfies the provided constraints. The developed models are based on different versions of the knapsack optimization algorithms. Two main classes of optimization models have been initially developed: deterministic and stochastic. Stochastic optimization models evolve deterministic models by explicitly considering data uncertainties (associated to constraints or item cost and reward). These models can be employed as stand-alone models or interfaced with the INL developed RAVEN code to propagate data uncertainties and analyze the generated data (i.e., sensitivity analysis).

Wang, Congjian↗
DOE OSTI2024

scANN

SAND2025-00656O scANN, also known as sampling by coinflips artificial neural networks, is a software tool that estimates uncertainty in artificial intelligence by performing Monte Carlo analysis on the weight matrices of feedforward neural networks. This computationally intensive process aims to explore the potential value added by future probabilistic hardware. The program’s output helps researchers gain insights into how probabilistic neural networks work. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Correspondence: A new two-step approach for evaluating discomfort from glare

While there are several rating scales commonly used to measure discomfort from glare sources, there are issues in the design of these scales that lead to noise in the data and in turn contribute to continued disagreement about the prediction of discomfort. Problems with rating scales include uncertainty about the meaning of magnitude descriptors, limited analysis opportunities available for some rating scales, inconsistent labelling of scale descriptors between studies that are using the “same” scale, the inability for subjects to indicate the lack of discomfort, and that it is uncertain where lies the borderline between comfort and discomfort. This paper proposes a new two-step scale for rating discomfort from glare.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗