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At least 1,711 records · Page 95

Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8deg to 1/8deg spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

Decomposition↗

Chemistry Simulations Using MERRA-2 Reanalysis with the GMI CTM and Replay in Support of the Atmospheric Composition Community

Simulations using reanalyzed meteorological conditions have been long used to understand causes of atmospheric composition change over the recent past. Using the new Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorology, chemistry simulations are being conducted to create products covering 1980-2016 for the atmospheric composition community. These simulations use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism in two different models: the GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM) and the GEOS-5 model developed Replay mode. Replay mode means an integration of the GEOS-5 general circulation model that is incrementally adjusted each time step toward the MERRA-2 analysis. The GMI CTM is a 1 x 1.25 simulation and the MERRA-2 GMI Replay simulation uses the native MERRA-2 approximately horizontal resolution on the cubed sphere. The Replay simulations is driven by the online use of key MERRA-2 meteorological variables (i.e. U, V, T, and surface pressure) with all other variables calculated in response to those variables. A specialized set of transport diagnostics is included in both runs to better understand trace gas transport and changes over the recent past.

Chemistry-Climate Model↗

Stewardship of NASA's Earth Science Data and Ensuring Long-Term Active Archives

Program, NASA has followed an open data policy, with non-discriminatory access to data with no period of exclusive access. NASA has well-established processes for assigning and or accepting datasets into one of 12 Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) that are parts of EOSDIS. EOSDIS has been evolving through several information technology cycles, adapting to hardware and software changes in the commercial sector. NASA is responsible for maintaining Earth science data as long as users are interested in using them for research and applications, which is well beyond the life of the data gathering missions. For science data to remain useful over long periods of time, steps must be taken to preserve: (1) Data bits with no corruption, (2) Discoverability and access, (3) Readability, (4) Understandability, (5) Usability' and (6). Reproducibility of results. NASAs Earth Science data and Information System (ESDIS) Project, along with the 12 EOSDIS Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), has made significant progress in each of these areas over the last decade, and continues to evolve its active archive capabilities. Particular attention is being paid in recent years to ensure that the datasets are published in an easily accessible and citable manner through a unified metadata model, a common metadata repository (CMR), a coherent view through the earthdata.gov website, and assignment of Digital Object Identifiers (DOI) with well-designed landing product information pages.

Data Management↗

Benchmark Comparison of Cloud Analytics Methods Applied to Earth Observations

Cloud computing has the potential to bring high performance computing capabilities to the average science researcher. However, in order to take full advantage of cloud capabilities, the science data used in the analysis must often be reorganized. This typically involves sharding the data across multiple nodes to enable relatively fine-grained parallelism. This can be either via cloud-based file systems or cloud-enabled databases such as Cassandra, Rasdaman or SciDB. Since storing an extra copy of data leads to increased cost and data management complexity, NASA is interested in determining the benefits and costs of various cloud analytics methods for real Earth Observation cases. Accordingly, NASA's Earth Science Technology Office and Earth Science Data and Information Systems project have teamed with cloud analytics practitioners to run a benchmark comparison on cloud analytics methods using the same input data and analysis algorithms. We have particularly looked at analysis algorithms that work over long time series, because these are particularly intractable for many Earth Observation datasets which typically store data with one or just a few time steps per file. This post will present side-by-side cost and performance results for several common Earth observation analysis operations.

science data management↗

Computations of Torque-Balanced Coaxial Rotor Flows

Interactional aerodynamics has been studied for counter-rotating coaxial rotors in hover. The effects of torque balancing on the performance of coaxial-rotor systems have been investigated. The three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved on overset grids using high-order accurate schemes, dual-time stepping, and a hybrid turbulence model. Computational results for an experimental model are compared to available data. The results for a coaxial quadcopter vehicle with and without torque balancing are discussed. Understanding interactions in coaxial-rotor flows would help improve the design of next-generation autonomous drones.

Torque↗

Chemistry Simulations using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis with the GMI CTM and Replay in Support of the Atmospheric Composition Community

Simulations using reanalysis meteorological fields have long been used to understand the causes of atmospheric composition change in the recent past. Using the new MERRA-2 reanalysis, we are conducting chemistry simulations to create products covering 1980-2016 for the atmospheric composition community. These simulations use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism in two different models: the GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM) and the GEOS-5 model in Replay mode. Replay mode means an integration of the GEOS-5 general circulation model that is incrementally adjusted each time step toward the MERRA-2 reanalysis. The GMI CTM is a 1 deg x 1.25 deg simulation and the MERRA-2 GMI Replay simulation uses the native MERRA-2 grid of approximately 1/2 deg horizontal resolution on the cubed sphere. A specialized set of transport diagnostics is included in both runs to better understand trace gas transport and its variability in the recent past.

MERRA-2↗

Design and Benchmarking of a Network-In-the-Loop Simulation for Use in a Hardware-In-the-Loop System

Distributed engine control (DEC) systems alter aircraft engine design constraints be- cause of fundamental differences in the input and output communication between DEC and centralized control architectures. The change in the way communication is implemented may create new optimum engine-aircraft configurations. This paper continues the exploration of digital network communication by demonstrating a Network-In-the-Loop simulation at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This simulation incorporates a real-time network protocol, the Engine Area Distributed Interconnect Network Lite (EADIN Lite), with the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k (C-MAPSS40k) software. The objective of this study is to assess digital control network impact to the control system. Performance is evaluated relative to a truth model for large transient maneuvers and a typical flight profile for commercial aircraft. Results show that a decrease in network bandwidth from 250 Kbps (sampling all sensors every time step) to 40 Kbps, resulted in very small differences in control system performance.

Networked Systems↗

Design and Benchmarking of a Network-In-the-Loop Simulation for Use in a Hardware-In-the-Loop System

Distributed engine control (DEC) systems alter aircraft engine design constraints because of fundamental differences in the input and output communication between DEC and centralized control architectures. The change in the way communication is implemented may create new optimum engine-aircraft configurations. This paper continues the exploration of digital network communication by demonstrating a Network-In-the-Loop simulation at the NASA Glenn Research Center. This simulation incorporates a real-time network protocol, the Engine Area Distributed Interconnect Network Lite (EADIN Lite), with the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k (C-MAPSS40k) software. The objective of this study is to assess digital control network impact to the control system. Performance is evaluated relative to a truth model for large transient maneuvers and a typical flight profile for commercial aircraft. Results show that a decrease in network bandwidth from 250 Kbps (sampling all sensors every time step) to 40 Kbps, resulted in very small differences in control system performance.

Networked Systems↗

Land Cover/Land Use Classification and Change Detection Analysis with Astronaut Photography and Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis

For over fifty years, NASA astronauts have taken exceptional photographs of the Earth from the unique vantage point of low Earth orbit (as well as from lunar orbit and surface of the Moon). The Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility is the NASA ISS payload supporting astronaut photography of the Earth surface and atmosphere. From aurora to mountain ranges, deltas, and cities, there are over two million images of the Earth's surface dating back to the Mercury missions in the early 1960s. The Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth website (eol.jsc.nasa.gov) provides a publically accessible platform to query and download these images at a variety of spatial resolutions and perform scientific research at no cost to the end user. As a demonstration to the science, application, and education user communities we examine astronaut photography of the Washington D.C. metropolitan area for three time steps between 1998 and 2016 using Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis (GEOBIA) to classify and quantify land cover/land use and provide a template for future change detection studies with astronaut photography.

Hollier, Andi B.↗

The SMAP Level 4 Carbon PRODUCT for Monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem-Atmosphere CO2 Exchange

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product provides model estimates of Net Ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) incorporating SMAP soil moisture information as a primary driver. The L4_C product provides NEE, computed as total respiration less gross photosynthesis, at a daily time step and approximate 14-day latency posted to a 9-km global grid summarized by plant functional type. The L4_C product includes component carbon fluxes, surface soil organic carbon stocks, underlying environmental constraints, and detailed uncertainty metrics. The L4_C model is driven by the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) data assimilation product, with additional inputs from the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) weather analysis and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. The L4_C data record extends from March 2015 to present with ongoing production. Initial comparisons against global CO2 eddy flux tower measurements, satellite Solar Induced Canopy Florescence (SIF) and other independent observation benchmarks show favorable L4_C performance and accuracy, capturing the dynamic biosphere response to recent weather anomalies and demonstrating the value of SMAP observations for monitoring of global terrestrial water and carbon cycle linkages.

SMAP↗

Effects of Martian Surface Materials on the Thermal Decomposition of Hydrogen Peroxide

While hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) has been detected in the martian atmosphere, it has not been detected in surface materials. Since the Viking lander mission, we have sent instruments to Mars with the capability to detect H2O2. The Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument onboard the Curiosity Rover and Thermal and Evolved Gas Analyzer (TEGA) instrument on the Phoenix lander both detected water and oxygen releases from analyzed sediments but whether or not peroxide could be the source of these gases has not been investigated. We are investigating the possible presence of H2O2 in martian materials by analyzing Mars-relevant minerals that have been mixed with hydrogen peroxide using lab instruments configured as analogs to Mars mission instruments. The object of this research is to use lab instruments to find the effects of Mars analog minerals on hydrogen peroxide gas release temperatures, specifically gas releases of water and oxygen and also determine the effect of the peroxide on the minerals. Data that we get from the lab can then be compared to the data collected from Mars. The minerals hematite, siderite, San Carlos olivine, magnetite and nontronite were chosen as our Mars analog minerals. ~20 mg of analog Mars minerals with 5μl of 50% H2O2, and were either run immediately or placed in a sealed tube for 2, 4, or 9 days to look for changes over time with two reps being done at each time step to determine repeatability. Each sample was heated from -60 degC to 500 degC at 20 degC/min and the evolved gases were monitored with a mass spectrometer. Each sample was also analyzed with an X-ray diffraction instrument to look for changes in mineralogy. Preliminary results show three potential outcomes: 1) peroxide has no effect on the sample (e.g., hematite), 2) the mineral is unaffected but catalyzes peroxide decomposition (magnetite, siderite), or 3) peroxide alters the mineral (pyrrhotite, San Carlos olivine).

Archer, P. D., Jr.↗

UAV Trajectory Modeling Using Neural Networks

Large amount of small Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (sUAVs) are projected to operate in the near future. Potential sUAV applications include, but not limited to, search and rescue, inspection and surveillance, aerial photography and video, precision agriculture, and parcel delivery. sUAVs are expected to operate in the uncontrolled Class G airspace, which is at or below 500 feet above ground level (AGL), where many static and dynamic constraints exist, such as ground properties and terrains, restricted areas, various winds, manned helicopters, and conflict avoidance among sUAVs. How to enable safe, efficient, and massive sUAV operations at the low altitude airspace remains a great challenge. NASA's Unmanned aircraft system Traffic Management (UTM) research initiative works on establishing infrastructure and developing policies, requirement, and rules to enable safe and efficient sUAVs' operations. To achieve this goal, it is important to gain insights of future UTM traffic operations through simulations, where the accurate trajectory model plays an extremely important role. On the other hand, like what happens in current aviation development, trajectory modeling should also serve as the foundation for any advanced concepts and tools in UTM. Accurate models of sUAV dynamics and control systems are very important considering the requirement of the meter level precision in UTM operations. The vehicle dynamics are relatively easy to derive and model, however, vehicle control systems remain unknown as they are usually kept by manufactures as a part of intellectual properties. That brings challenges to trajectory modeling for sUAVs. How to model the vehicle's trajectories with unknown control system? This work proposes to use a neural network to model a vehicle's trajectory. The neural network is first trained to learn the vehicle's responses at numerous conditions. Once being fully trained, given current vehicle states, winds, and desired future trajectory, the neural network should be able to predict the vehicle's future states at next time step. A complete 4-D trajectory are then generated step by step using the trained neural network. Experiments in this work show that the neural network can approximate the sUAV's model and predict the trajectory accurately.

Neural Networks↗

High-Fidelity Computational Aerodynamics of Multi-Rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

High-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations have been carried out for several multi-rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Three vehicles have been studied: the classic quadcopter DJI Phantom 3, an unconventional quadcopter specialized for forward flight, the SUI Endurance, and an innovative concept for Urban Air Mobility (UAM), the Elytron 4S UAV. The three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved on overset grids using high-order accurate schemes, dual-time stepping, and a hybrid turbulence model. The DJI Phantom 3 is simulated with different rotors and with both a simplified airframe and the real airframe including landing gear and a camera. The effects of weather are studied for the DJI Phantom 3 quadcopter in hover. The SUI En- durance original design is compared in forward flight to a new configuration conceived by the authors, the hybrid configuration, which gives a large improvement in forward thrust. The Elytron 4S UAV is simulated in helicopter mode and in airplane mode. Understanding the complex flows in multi-rotor vehicles will help design quieter, safer, and more efficient future drones and UAM vehicles.

High-Fidelity↗

High-Fidelity Computational Aerodynamics of the Elytron 4S UAV

High-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) have been carried out for the Elytron 4S Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), also known as the converticopter "proto12". It is the scaled wind tunnel model of the Elytron 4S, an Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept, a tilt-wing, box-wing rotorcraft capable of Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL). The three-dimensional unsteady Navier-Stokes equations are solved on overset grids employing high-order accurate schemes, dual-time stepping, and a hybrid turbulence model using NASA's CFD code OVERFLOW. The Elytron 4S UAV has been simulated in airplane mode and in helicopter mode.

High-Fidelity↗

Dynamic Adjustment of Simulation Parameters for Efficient Vehicle Prognostics

Model-based diagnostics and prognostics rely on state estimation and uncertainty management algorithms to produce useful information for system operators and maintainers. This information enables more informed operational decisions, condition-based maintenance, and overall mission safety assurance. Typically, uncertainty is associated with vehicle state-of-health estimation and prediction results because of modeling errors, internal or external sources of noise, and sensor inaccuracy. Probabilistic uncertainty management methods including Sequential Monte Carlo simulation are commonly used to reason about state-of-health estimates and predictions in the presence of these sources of uncertainty. However, such algorithms can be computationally expensive as they require a very large number of samples to obtain a sufficiently accurate quantification of the end of life probability distribution. As a result, highly mobile autonomous systems that leverage the prognostic results for mission-level replanning are often constrained in their processing capability because of these computationally expensive simulation approaches. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate algorithmic methods for dynamically adjusting simulation time step as well as number of samples to achieve highly efficient prognostic results while maintaining results accuracy. Results obtained from simulated flight experiments of an electric unmanned aerial vehicle are presented to verify the efficacy of such algorithms.

Prognostics↗

Space-Based Communications Buffer Sizing

This paper considers the transmission interruption timing for space-based communications due to weather. The length of the weather interruption is one of the main influences determining the size of the storage needed to save the data to be sent at a later time. This analysis uses the Markov chain probabilities for weather to determine how many cloudy or rainy time steps in a row will not allow data transmission. The mean and standard deviation are computed, which along with the average data rate to be sent can be used to help size storage buffers in which to save data between periods of good weather.

Handler, Louis M.↗

Wall-Resolved Large Eddy Simulations of Transonic Shock-Induced Flow Separation

This paper reports the wall-resolved large eddy simulations of shock-induced boundary layer separation over an axisymmetric bump for a flow Mach number of 0.875 and a chord-based Reynolds number of 2.763 million. The incoming boundary layer has a momentum-thickness Reynolds number of 6600 at one and a half chord lengths upstream of the leading edge. The calculations simulate the experiment by Bachalo and Johnson (AIAA Journal, Vol. 24, No. 3, 1986), except that the tunnel walls are ignored and the simulations are performed assuming free air with as many as 24 billion grid points. The effects of domain span, grid resolution and time step on the predictions are examined. The results are found to show some sensitivity to the studied parameters. Owing to the outer boundary conditions, the predicted surface pressure distribution as well as the flow separation and reattachment locations tend to agree better with the experimental results from the larger (6 × 6 ft) tunnel than those from the smaller (2 × 2 ft) tunnel. The predicted Reynolds shear stress profiles in the separated region differ by as much as 31%from the experimental results that were only obtained in the smaller tunnel. The most accurate surface pressure distribution obtained in this study lies within the scatter of the measurements taken in the two facilities.

Uzun, Ali↗

A Comparative Analysis of Micrometeorological Determinants of Evapotranspiration Rates Within a Heterogeneous Urban Environment

Variability in micrometeorological conditions and their influence on estimated reference evapotranspiration (RET) rates were evaluated across a heterogeneous urban environment. Micrometeorological data sets (incoming solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) were collected over a one-year period at six weather stations in New York City, NY (USA). Weather stations are located at four new urban green space monitoring sites and two airports. Reference evapotranspiration (RET) rates were estimated from the micrometeorological data sets for a short reference surface at a daily time-step using the ASCE Standardized Reference Evapotranspiration Equation, a Penman-Monteith based combination equation. Nonparametric comparative statistical analyses (Kruskal-Wallis) revealed statistically significant differences (at significance level α = 0.05) in micrometeorological conditions and estimated RET rates between the six sites. On a cumulative annual basis, estimated RET varied by up to 40 percent between the sites. A new technique for adjusting weather data collected at one location (e.g. regional airports) for use at another location (e.g. interior engineered urban green spaces) was evaluated. The study highlights the importance, for accurate estimation of ET, of onsite micrometeorological data sets, but concludes that additional research is needed to more thoroughly characterize micrometeorological variability across heterogeneous urban environments, and also to evaluate the influence of non-meteorological determinants, e.g. vegetation type, soil/media type, media moisture conditions and anthropogenic heat fluxes, on urban ET.

Urban environment↗