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DOE OSTI2025

InterGraph-CPS: A Graph-Theoretic Approach to Characterize Cross-Domain Cyber-Physical Interdependencies and Uncertainties in Electric Grid Systems for Improved Decision-Making in Operation and Response

Critical infrastructure systems such as the electric grid are increasingly cyber-physical; yet, despite the cyber-physical characteristics of critical infrastructure systems, the physical process system and communication/control network system are traditionally analyzed in siloes. As these systems become more cyber-physical, it is crucial that models and methods are available to assess the cyber physical system (CPS) interdependencies, characteristics, and event propagation for improved planning, operation, and response. Thus, we proposed an integrated structural and temporal CPS interdependency analysis framework, InterGraph-CPS, that provides insight into the CPS function during normal operation as well as disturbances. This integrated structural and temporal interdependency framework is uniquely designed for assessing CPSs by account for the challenges of analyzing cyber and physical data streams together due to data availability, data type, and time scale differences. By leveraging both structural (e.g., graph analysis) and temporal (e.g., data analytics) techniques, different CPS behaviors and configurations can be accounted for.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

ORBiT: Oak Ridge biosurveillance toolkit for public health dynamics

Background: The digitization of health-related information through electronic health records (EHR) and electronic healthcare reimbursement claims and the continued growth of self-reported health information through social media provides both tremendous opportunities and challenges in developing effective biosurveillance tools. With novel emerging infectious diseases being reported across different parts of the world, there is a need to build systems that can track, monitor and report such events in a timely manner. Further, it is also important to identify susceptible geographic regions and populations where emerging diseases may have a significant impact. Methods: In this paper, we present an overview of Oak Ridge Biosurveillance Toolkit (ORBiT), which we have developed specifically to address data analytic challenges in the realm of public health surveillance. In particular, ORBiT provides an extensible environment to pull together diverse, large-scale datasets and analyze them to identify spatial and temporal patterns for various biosurveillance-related tasks. Results: We demonstrate the utility of ORBiT in automatically extracting a small number of spatial and temporal patterns during the 2009-2010 pandemic H1N1 flu season using claims data. These patterns provide quantitative insights into the dynamics of how the pandemic flu spread across different parts of the country. We discovered that the claims data exhibits multi-scale patterns from which we could identify a small number of states in the United States (US) that act as “bridge regions” contributing to one or more specific influenza spread patterns. Similar to previous studies, the patterns show that the south-eastern regions of the US were widely affected by the H1N1 flu pandemic. Several of these south-eastern states act as bridge regions, which connect the north-east and central US in terms of flu occurrences. Conclusions: These quantitative insights show how the claims data combined with novel analytical techniques can provide important information to decision makers when an epidemic spreads throughout the country. Taken together ORBiT provides a scalable and extensible platform for public health surveillance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Mathematical and Numerical Analyses of Peridynamics for Multiscale Materials Modeling

The rational design of materials, the development of accurate and efficient material simulation algorithms, and the determination of the response of materials to environments and loads occurring in practice all require an understanding of mechanics at disparate spatial and temporal scales. The project addresses mathematical and numerical analyses for material problems for which relevant scales range from those usually treated by molecular dynamics all the way up to those most often treated by classical elasticity. The prevalent approach towards developing a multiscale material model couples two or more well known models, e.g., molecular dynamics and classical elasticity, each of which is useful at a different scale, creating a multiscale multi-model. However, the challenges behind such a coupling are formidable and largely arise because the atomistic and continuum models employ nonlocal and local models of force, respectively. The project focuses on a multiscale analysis of the peridynamics materials model. Peridynamics can be used as a transition between molecular dynamics and classical elasticity so that the difficulties encountered when directly coupling those two models are mitigated. In addition, in some situations, peridynamics can be used all by itself as a material model that accurately and efficiently captures the behavior of materials over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Peridynamics is well suited to these purposes because it employs a nonlocal model of force, analogous to that of molecular dynamics; furthermore, at sufficiently large length scales and assuming smooth deformation, peridynamics can be approximated by classical elasticity. The project will extend the emerging mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics. One goal is to develop a peridynamics-enabled multiscale multi-model that potentially provides a new and more extensive mathematical basis for coupling classical elasticity and molecular dynamics, thus enabling next generation atomistic-to-continuum multiscale simulations. In addition, a rigorous studyof nite element discretizations of peridynamics will be considered. Using the fact that peridynamics is spatially derivative free, we will also characterize the space of admissible peridynamic solutions and carry out systematic analyses of the models, in particular rigorously showing how peridynamics encompasses fracture and other failure phenomena. Additional aspects of the project include the mathematical and numerical analysis of peridynamics applied to stochastic peridynamics models. In summary, the project will make feasible mathematically consistent multiscale models for the analysis and design of advanced materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Lie groups of variable cross-section channel flow

This paper considers Lie groups of scaling transformations for the system of equations governing inviscid, compressible, quasi-one dimensional (quasi-1D) fluid flow in channels with variable cross-section. We determine the coupling between the admissibility of the group transformations and the equation of state (EOS) model used to close the system as well as the spatial and temporal dependence of the channel cross-section. The results presented extend prior group analysis performed in Ovsiannikov and Boyd et al. on the equations of gas dynamics for 1D flow. In the context of channel flow, the analysis in Ovsiannikov and Boyd et al. is only applicable for a very limited scope of channels, namely for channels possessing planar, cylindrical and spherical symmetry where the flow is truly 1D. To illustrate the extension achieved using the quasi-1D model, we consider the classical Noh problem set up in a channel with a variable area cross-section. First, a new set of canonical variables are derived using the admissible scaling transformations. Then, by re-expressing the governing equations of motion in terms of the new variables, a solvable system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is acquired. The resulting explicit solutions of the problem extend the previous results of Ramsey et al. to solutions of the Noh problem for quasi-1D flow.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2014

Map Matching and Real World Integrated Sensor Data Warehousing (Presentation)

The inclusion of interlinked temporal and spatial elements within integrated sensor data enables a tremendous degree of flexibility when analyzing multi-component datasets. The presentation illustrates how to warehouse, process, and analyze high-resolution integrated sensor datasets to support complex system analysis at the entity and system levels. The example cases presented utilizes in-vehicle sensor system data to assess vehicle performance, while integrating a map matching algorithm to link vehicle data to roads to demonstrate the enhanced analysis possible via interlinking data elements. Furthermore, in addition to the flexibility provided, the examples presented illustrate concepts of maintaining proprietary operational information (Fleet DNA) and privacy of study participants (Transportation Secure Data Center) while producing widely distributed data products. Should real-time operational data be logged at high resolution across multiple infrastructure types, map matched to their associated infrastructure, and distributed employing a similar approach; dependencies between urban environment infrastructures components could be better understood. This understanding is especially crucial for the cities of the future where transportation will rely more on grid infrastructure to support its energy demands.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

DETAIL Component Scaling and Methodology Comparison

The purpose of this study was to develop a process to convert input signals from one facility into another by reflecting geometric and environmental settings. The Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) is a research facility in development. Its aim is to emulate the daily interactions among power production industry systems and receive real-time data from those systems as inputs. To convert signals and ensure that the temporal sequences and magnitudes reflect laboratory settings, the ability to scale and project data is essential. To demonstrate this ability, Dynamical System Scaling (DSS) and Hierarchical Two-Tiered Scaling (H2TS) (methodologies that enable systems to scale and project or extrapolate data sets to desired environments while conserving the observed behavior based on first principles) were applied to DETAIL’s thermocline thermal storage system in the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) facility and solid-oxide electrolysis cell in the High Temperature Hydrogen Electrolysis (HTHE) facility. Both thermocline and electrolysis cell systems were successfully scaled, and test cases were conducted to generate a doubly accelerated energy charge and discharge in reference to past experimental data from the facilities. The research results represented a case for the thermocline system that required signals to be accelerated without altering the stored energy. To enhance the quality of the accelerated data, error propagation analyses were conducted on DSS post-processing terms to determine the consequences of raw-data-associated errors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

A methodology for decay heat characterization in molten salt reactors

Accurate decay heat prediction in molten salt reactors (MSRs) faces dual challenges: complex operational uncertainties and the need for interpretable models compatible with engineering workflows. This work presents a hybrid machine learning and segmented polynomial methodology that addresses both requirements through three key innovations. First, a modular data architecture encodes MSR-specific operational parameters (power density: 1-100 W cm -3 , humidity: 0-0.1 wt %, air ingress: 0-0.1 mol %) with uncertainty-aware temporal discretization spanning 15 orders of magnitude. Second, region-optimized machine learning models achieve 92.3 % root mean square error (RMSE) reduction over conventional polynomials while maintaining physical interpretability through automated piecewise equation generation. Third, dual front-end interfaces accelerate safety analyses — a Jupyter environment enables researchers to explore 10,000+ parameter combinations via interactive widgets, while a Streamlit web application reduces design iteration cycles through production-grade visualization tools. Operational deployment demonstrates prediction times of only a couple hundred milliseconds for 10 4 years decay profiles, enabling real-time optimization of spent fuel container designs.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

In Situ Chemical Monitoring and Imaging of Contents within Microfluidic Devices Having a Porous Membrane Wall Using Liquid Microjunction Surface Sampling Probe Mass Spectrometry

The ability to observe dynamic chemical processes (e.g., signaling, transport, etc.) in vivo or in situ using nondestructive chemical imaging opens a new door to understanding the complex dynamics of developing biological systems. With the advent of “biology-on-a-chip” devices has come the ability to monitor dynamic chemical processes in a controlled environment, using these engineered habitats to capture key features of natural systems while allowing visual observation of system development. Having the capability to spatially and temporally map the chemical signals within these devices may yield new insights into the forces that drive biosystem development. Here, a porous membrane sealed microfluidic device was designed to allow normal microfluidic operation while enabling continuous, location specific sampling and chemical characterization by liquid microjunction surface sampling probe mass spectrometry (LMJ-SSP MS). LMJ-SSP was used to extract fluids with nL-to-μL/min flow rates directly from selected areas of the microfluidic device without negatively impacting the device function. These extracts were subsequently characterized using MS. This technique was used to acquire MS images of the entirety of several multi-input microfluidic devices having different degrees of fluid mixing. LMJ-SSP MS imaging visualized the spatial distribution of chemical components within the microfluidic channels and could visualize chemical reactions occurring in the device. These microfluidic devices with a porous membrane wall are wholly compatible with the construction of biology-on-a-chip devices. This ultimately would enable correlation of biosystem physical structure with an evolving chemical environment

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-I-32: Benchmarking Head CT Doses: A Pooled Vs. Protocol Specific Analysis of Radiation Doses in Adult Head CT Examinations

Purpose: The aim of this study was to collect CT dose index data from adult head exams to establish benchmarks based on either: (a) values pooled from all head exams or (b) values for specific protocols. One part of this was to investigate differences in scan frequency and CT dose index data for inpatients versus outpatients. Methods: We collected CT dose index data (CTDIvol) from adult head CT examinations performed at our medical facilities from Jan 1st to Dec 31th, 2014. Four of these scanners were used for inpatients, the other five were used for outpatients. All scanners used Tube Current Modulation. We used X-ray dose management software to mine dose index data and evaluate CTDIvol for 15807 inpatients and 4263 outpatients undergoing Routine Brain, Sinus, Facial/Mandible, Temporal Bone, CTA Brain and CTA Brain-Neck protocols, and combined across all protocols. Results: For inpatients, Routine Brain series represented 84% of total scans performed. For outpatients, Sinus scans represented the largest fraction (36%). The CTDIvol (mean ± SD) across all head protocols was 39 ± 30 mGy (min-max: 3.3–540 mGy). The CTDIvol for Routine Brain was 51 ± 6.2 mGy (min-max: 36–84 mGy). The values for Sinus were 24 ± 3.2 mGy (min-max: 13–44 mGy) and for Facial/Mandible were 22 ± 4.3 mGy (min-max: 14–46 mGy). The mean CTDIvol for inpatients and outpatients was similar across protocols with one exception (CTA Brain-Neck). Conclusion: There is substantial dose variation when results from all protocols are pooled together; this is primarily a function of the differences in technical factors of the protocols themselves. When protocols are analyzed separately, there is much less variability. While analyzing pooled data affords some utility, reviewing protocols segregated by clinical indication provides greater opportunity for optimization and establishing useful benchmarks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

From IMT Device Measurements to Network-Level Consequences: When Learning Suppresses Beyond-LIF Neuron Dynamics

Emerging neuromorphic devices such as insulator--metal transition (IMT) devices exhibit complex temporal dynamics, including slow internal state memory, hysteresis, and burst-like firing, which are poorly captured by conventional leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) neurons. However, it remains unclear when such dynamics influence learning and inference at the network level, particularly under commonly used unsupervised plasticity rules. We present a controlled, full-stack co-design study spanning experimental characterization of individual IMT devices, compact neuron model development, and large-scale spiking network simulations with identical architectures and learning rules. Rather than optimizing benchmark accuracy, our goal is to diagnose when neuron-level dynamics survive learning and competition, and when they are suppressed, to inform the co-design of devices, networks, and learning rules that can exploit beyond-LIF complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

A 3D MR-acquisition scheme for nonrigid bulk motion correction in simultaneous PET-MR

Purpose: Positron emission tomography (PET) is a highly sensitive medical imaging technique commonly used to detect and assess tumor lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides high resolution anatomical images with different contrasts and a range of additional information important for cancer diagnosis. Recently, simultaneous PET-MR systems have been released with the promise to provide complementary information from both modalities in a single examination. Due to long scan times, subject nonrigid bulk motion, i.e., changes of the patient's position on the scanner table leading to nonrigid changes of the patient's anatomy, during data acquisition can negatively impair image quality and tracer uptake quantification. A 3D MR-acquisition scheme is proposed to detect and correct for nonrigid bulk motion in simultaneously acquired PET-MR data. Methods: A respiratory navigated three dimensional (3D) MR-acquisition with Radial Phase Encoding (RPE) is used to obtain T1- and T2-weighted data with an isotropic resolution of 1.5 mm. Healthy volunteers are asked to move the abdomen two to three times during data acquisition resulting in overall 19 movements at arbitrary time points. The acquisition scheme is used to retrospectively reconstruct dynamic 3D MR images with different temporal resolutions. Nonrigid bulk motion is detected and corrected in this image data. A simultaneous PET acquisition is simulated and the effect of motion correction is assessed on image quality and standardized uptake values (SUV) for lesions with different diameters. Results: Six respiratory gated 3D data sets with T1- and T2-weighted contrast have been obtained in healthy volunteers. All bulk motion shifts have successfully been detected and motion fields describing the transformation between the different motion states could be obtained with an accuracy of 1.71 ± 0.29 mm. The PET simulation showed errors of up to 67% in measured SUV due to bulk motion which could be reduced to less than 10% with the proposed motion compensation approach. Conclusions: A MR acquisition scheme which yields both high resolution 3D anatomical data and highly accurate nonrigid motion information without an increase in scan time is presented. The proposed method leads to a strong improvement in both MR and PET image quality and ensures an accurate assessment of tracer uptake.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO 2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon

Here, the vast forests and natural areas of the Pacific Northwest comprise one of the most productive ecosystems in the northern hemisphere. The heterogeneous landscape of Oregon poses a particular challenge to ecosystem models. We present a framework using a scaling factor Bayesian inversion to improve the modeled atmosphere-biosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. Observations from 5 CO/CO 2 towers, eddy covariance towers, and airborne campaigns were used to constrain the Community Land Model CLM4.5 simulated terrestrial CO 2 exchange at a high spatial and temporal resolution (1/24°, 3-hourly). To balance aggregation errors and the degrees of freedom in the inverse modeling system, we applied an unsupervised clustering approach for the spatial structuring of our model domain. Data from flight campaigns were used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model that was applied for the inversions. The average annual statewide net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was increased by 32% to 29.7 TgC per year by assimilating the tropospheric mixing ratio data. The associated uncertainty was decreased by 28.4% to 29%, on average over the entire Oregon model domain with the lowest uncertainties of 11% in western Oregon. The largest differences between posterior and prior CO 2 fluxes were found for the Coast Range ecoregion of Oregon that also exhibits the highest availability of atmospheric observations and associated footprints. In this area, covered by highly productive Douglas-fir forest, the differences between the prior and posterior estimate of NEP averaged 3.84 TgC per year during the study period from 2012 through 2014.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

The Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO 2 , version 2016 (ODIAC2016): a global monthly fossil fuel CO 2 gridded emissions data product for tracer transport simulations and surface flux inversions

The Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO 2 (ODIAC) is a global high-spatial-resolution gridded emissions data product that distributes carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The emissions spatial distributions are estimated at a 1 × 1 km spatial resolution over land using power plant profiles (emissions intensity and geographical location) and satellite-observed nighttime lights. This work describes the year 2016 version of the ODIAC emissions data product (ODIAC2016) and presents analyses that help guide data users, especially for atmospheric CO 2 tracer transport simulations and flux inversion analysis. Since the original publication in 2011, we have made modifications to our emissions modeling framework in order to deliver a comprehensive global gridded emissions data product. Major changes from the 2011 publication are (1) the use of emissions estimates made by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) by fuel type (solid, liquid, gas, cement manufacturing, gas flaring, and international aviation and marine bunkers); (2) the use of multiple spatial emissions proxies by fuel type such as (a) nighttime light data specific to gas flaring and (b) ship/aircraft fleet tracks; and (3) the inclusion of emissions temporal variations. Using global fuel consumption data, we extrapolated the CDIAC emissions estimates for the recent years and produced the ODIAC2016 emissions data product that covers 2000–2015. Our emissions data can be viewed as an extended version of CDIAC gridded emissions data product, which should allow data users to impose global fossil fuel emissions in a more comprehensive manner than the original CDIAC product. Our new emissions modeling framework allows us to produce future versions of the ODIAC emissions data product with a timely update. Such capability has become more significant given the CDIAC/ORNL's shutdown. The ODIAC data product could play an important role in supporting carbon cycle science, especially modeling studies with space-based CO 2 data collected in near real time by ongoing carbon observing missions such as the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), and upcoming future missions. The ODIAC emissions data product including the latest version of the ODIAC emissions data (ODIAC2017, 2000–2016) is distributed from http://db.cger.nies.go.jp/dataset/ODIAC/ with a DOI (https://doi.org/10.17595/20170411.001).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

UV-Induced Reaction Pathways in Bromoform Probed with Ultrafast Electron Diffraction

For many chemical reactions, it remains notoriously difficult to predict and experimentally determine the rates and branching ratios between different reaction channels. This is particularly the case for reactions involving short-lived intermediates, whose observation requires ultrafast methods. The UV photochemistry of bromoform (CHBr 3 ) is among the most intensely studied photoreactions. Yet, a detailed understanding of the chemical pathways leading to the production of atomic Br and molecular Br 2 fragments has proven challenging. In particular, the role of isomerization and/or roaming and their competition with direct C–Br bond scission has been a matter of continued debate. Here, in this work, gas-phase ultrafast megaelectronvolt electron diffraction (MeV-UED) is used to directly study structural dynamics in bromoform after single 267 nm photon excitation with femtosecond temporal resolution. The results show unambiguously that isomerization contributes significantly to the early stages of the UV photochemistry of bromoform. In addition to direct C–Br bond breaking within <200 fs, formation of iso-CHBr 3 (Br-CH-Br-Br) is observed on the same time scale and with an isomer lifetime of >1.1 ps. The branching ratio between direct dissociation and isomerization is determined to be 0.4 ± 0.2:0.6 ± 0.2, i.e., approximately 60% of molecules undergo isomerization within the first few hundred femtoseconds after UV excitation. The structure and time of formation of iso-CHBr 3 compare favorably with the results of an ab initio molecular dynamics simulation. The lifetime and interatomic distances of the isomer are consistent with the involvement of a roaming reaction mechanism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

The WACMOS-ET project – Part 1: Tower-scale evaluation of four remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration algorithms

The WAter Cycle Multi-mission Observation Strategy – EvapoTranspiration (WACMOS-ET) project has compiled a forcing data set covering the period 2005–2007 that aims to maximize the exploitation of European Earth Observations data sets for evapotranspiration (ET) estimation. The data set was used to run four established ET algorithms: the Priestley–Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory model (PT-JPL), the Penman–Monteith algorithm from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) evaporation product (PM-MOD), the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) and the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). In addition, in situ meteorological data from 24 FLUXNET towers were used to force the models, with results from both forcing sets compared to tower-based flux observations. Model performance was assessed on several timescales using both sub-daily and daily forcings. The PT-JPL model and GLEAM provide the best performance for both satellite- and tower-based forcing as well as for the considered temporal resolutions. Simulations using the PM-MOD were mostly underestimated, while the SEBS performance was characterized by a systematic overestimation. In general, all four algorithms produce the best results in wet and moderately wet climate regimes. In dry regimes, the correlation and the absolute agreement with the reference tower ET observations were consistently lower. While ET derived with in situ forcing data agrees best with the tower measurements ( R 2 = 0.67), the agreement of the satellite-based ET estimates is only marginally lower ( R 2 = 0.58). Results also show similar model performance at daily and sub-daily (3-hourly) resolutions. Overall, our validation experiments against in situ measurements indicate that there is no single best-performing algorithm across all biome and forcing types. In conclusion, an extension of the evaluation to a larger selection of 85 towers (model inputs resampled to a common grid to facilitate global estimates) confirmed the original findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the impact of temporal analysis of products reactor initial state uncertainties on kinetic parameters

The temporal analysis of products (TAP) reactor, a transient kinetic tool, provides users with information as the catalyst state evolves. However, the state of the art for TAP uncertainty quantification only considers the experimental noise present in the outlet flow signal. Additional sources of uncertainty, including, but not limited to, initial surface coverages, the catalyst zone location, the inert void fraction, and the gas pulse intensity and pulse delay, are not included. For this reason, a framework for quantifying all uncertainty sources present in TAP experiments is presented and applied to a carbon monoxide oxidation case study. Herein, two methods for quantifying these sources of uncertainty are introduced. The first utilizes initial state sensitivities to approximate the parameter variances, as well as to provide insights into the structural certainty of the model. The second generates parameter confidence distributions through an ensemble-based sampling algorithm. This initial state covariance matrix can ultimately be merged with the experimental noise covariance matrix, providing a unified description of the parameter uncertainties for a single TAP experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗