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DOE OSTI2025

Radio Frequency Field Programable Gate Array Implementation of Reflectometry Cable Monitoring

This document describes the development of a field programable gate array (FPGA) radio frequency system on a chip (RF SoC) adaptation and evaluation of the single-board device to perform both Frequency Domain Reflectometry (FDR) and Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry (SSTDR) for offline and online cable testing. The work builds on and leverages the work of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in airport millimeter wave technology by using the same development hardware employed in that program. The work is performed under sponsorship from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program and the task objective is to confirm and demonstrate feasibility to adapt FPGA technology for a cost-effective multiplexed single-board electronic module to perform cable tests that are equivalent to commercial and laboratory test instruments for FDR and SSTDR cable tests. The developed 2-channel (extendable to 7 channels) system was compared to dedicated and proven test instruments and shown to produce equivalent results on a range of cables and with a range of damage types. The FPGA reflectometry test board is one of several technologies that could facilitate implementation of online monitoring of safety critical cable systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Use of generic and site-specific underground research laboratories to support siting, design, and safety assessment - 15417

Under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nationally developed underground research laboratories (URLs) and associated research institutions are being offered for use by other nations. These facilities form an Underground Research Facilities (URF) Network for training in and demonstration of waste disposal technologies and the sharing of knowledge and experience related to geologic repository development, research, and engineering. In order to achieve its objectives, the URF Network regularly sponsors workshops and training events related to the knowledge base that is transferable between existing URL programs and to nations with an interest in developing a new URL. Toward that end, a three-day workshop was held in Albuquerque, New Mexico in October 2014 to identify and compare the understanding of URF Network members on the place and role of generic and site-specific URLs in the overall, iterative geological disposal development process, including repository siting, design, and post-closure safety assessment. Attention was also given to the need for URLs in salt host rock, since there is currently no such facility in operation in the world. This paper describes some of the outcomes of the workshop in the context of the general timeline for repository development and the evolving role of research, development, and demonstration (RD and D) activities in URLs. Of particular interest is the relationship between technology maturity, as measured by technology readiness level (TRL), and the stages or milestones in the repository development timeline. The long history of RD and D in worldwide URLs (> 40 years) can be argued to be the primary reason that nuclear waste disposal systems are currently at a high level of maturity. One of the key recommendations from the workshop was that an international, easily accessible knowledge base should soon be established to avoid the loss of important experiences and information obtained from existing and closed URLs. It was also recognized that a new generic URL in salt host rock would provide a number of benefits, but one should not be initiated until a national program specifically decides to site its repository in salt. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

FUSRAP Case Study - Benefits and Lessons Learned from Implementation of a Modern Data Solution at Maywood - 18399

This paper focuses on data production and management practices dating back to 1999 that continue to evolve to support the project today. In 2000, the FUSRAP Maywood Project began using a software environmental data management system and laboratory information management system, developed by a single database administrator (DA) and authored in Microsoft Access{sup TM} (MS Access). The original databases included basic functionality including sample number assignment and label generation, tracking of LIMS gamma spec QC and assignment of basic qualifiers and basic database queries. The DA continued over the next fifteen years to refine the EDMS/LIMS by integrating project-specific data evaluation guidance document processes and Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) charting and excursion warning tools. With the retirement of the original DA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)-Cabrera Team procured and implemented a commercial-leaning solution using modern database tools and an established EDMS vendor. For the database transition process, the project team established and configured the new EDMS/LIMS with basic architecture and accessibility; evaluated existing workflows; established/revised LIMS and EDMS-related documentation (manuals and procedures); and conducted dry runs and validation testing. The overall team coordinated closely to facilitate a seamless transition from initial assessment and authoring, to data migration, and finally to resumption of normal ongoing operations. Key features of the new EDMS Subcontractor's software included lookup tables, an import wizard, data checking options and unique indexes. Since the database systems became operational, the technical staff gathered useful feedback from end users (e.g., lab staff, field engineers, task managers, and the third-party data validator) to refine the EDMS/LIMS operation. This feedback triggered improvements in the performance of onsite laboratory qualification forms, promoted consistency in sample ID numbers between the database sample planning screens and field chain-of-custodies, corrected bugs in the LIMS Duplicate Evaluation Report, eliminated data import issues such as blank, inconsistent or missing data from key fields. One of the advantages of the commercial database solution was that it allowed the project to cut cost over time due to the lower cost of database maintenance provided by the commercial database vendor versus the cost of an on-staff DA. Cost savings are estimated at $40,000 per year. There were also indirect cost savings resulting from implementation of the new database since it allowed better integration of the LIMS and EDMS. While there will always be challenges associated with long term records/data management for any old remediation site, the Maywood Team's approach to an upgraded EDMS/LIMS implementation serves as one element of the overall effort to enhance the integrity and reproducibility of critical data that supports the remediation program while at the same time, more effectively using available resources. These lessons-learned will enhance implementation of cost-effective solutions for similar environmental remediation sites. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Status Update for the Canister Deposition Field Demonstration

This report updates the high-level test plan for evaluating surface deposition on three commercial 32PTH2 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) canisters inside NUTECH Horizontal Modular Storage (NUHOMS) Advanced Horizontal Storage Modules (AHSM) from Orano (formerly Transnuclear Inc.) and provides a description of the surface characterization activities that have been conducted to date. The details contained in this report represent the best designs and approaches explored for testing as of this publication. Given the rapidly developing nature of this test program, some of these plans may change to accommodate new objectives or requirements. The goal of the testing is to collect highly defensible and detailed surface deposition measurements from the surface of dry storage canisters in a marine coastal environment to guide chloride-induced stress corrosion crack (CISCC) research. To facilitate surface sampling, the otherwise highly prototypic dry storage systems will not contain SNF but rather will be electrically heated to mimic the thermal-hydraulic-environment. Instrumentation throughout the canister, storage module, and environment will provide an extensive amount of information for the use of model validation. Manual sampling over a comprehensive portion of the canister surface at regular time intervals will offer a high-fidelity quantification of the conditions experienced in a harsh yet realistic environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multi-Pack Disposal Concepts for Spent Fuel (Revision 1)

At the initiation of the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) R&D campaign, international geologic disposal programs and past work in the U.S. were surveyed to identify viable disposal concepts for crystalline, clay/shale, and salt host media. Concepts for disposal of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level waste (HLW) from reprocessing are relatively advanced in countries such as Finland, France, and Sweden. The UFD work quickly showed that these international concepts are all “enclosed,” whereby waste packages are emplaced in direct or close contact with natural or engineered materials . Alternative “open” modes (emplacement tunnels are kept open after emplacement for extended ventilation) have been limited to the Yucca Mountain License Application Design. Thermal analysis showed that if “enclosed” concepts are constrained by peak package/buffer temperature, that waste package capacity is limited to 4 PWR assemblies (or 9 BWR) in all media except salt. This information motivated separate studies: 1) extend the peak temperature tolerance of backfill materials, which is ongoing; and 2) develop small canisters (up to 4-PWR size) that can be grouped in larger multi-pack units for convenience of storage, transportation, and possibly disposal (should the disposal concept permit larger packages). A recent result from the second line of investigation is the Task Order 18 report: Generic Design for Small Standardized Transportation, Aging and Disposal Canister Systems. This report identifies disposal concepts for the small canisters (4-PWR size) drawing heavily on previous work, and for the multi-pack (16-PWR or 36-BWR).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the LANL Multi-Probe Radiography Project [Slides]

Future radiographic facilities for the U.S. defense program will be required to provide more information as simulation codes improve in both physics’ fidelity and resolution. A possible approach is to use more types of probe beams in addition to, or instead of X-rays, generated by 20-MeV electron accelerators from a small number of directions. High power short-pulse laser systems can generate beams of protons, neutrons and electrons, as well as X-rays. The cost of these systems is falling rapidly. So, it can be imagined that deploying multiple short-pulse lasers along with other, more traditional probes, will become feasible. In this project, we are following three paths to determine if such an approach will succeed for cm-scale objects. The first is an experimental one to determine if the presence of multiple short-pulse probes cause interference with each other, especially while radiographing dynamic objects. The second leg of this project is to determine if having multiple types of probes really does give more information on composition. Finally, an overall assessment of the viability of this approach will be made. Examples from recent experiments at the Omega EP laser will be presented. The initial approach to evaluating radiographs with multiple probes using the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) also will be given.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sierra/SD – Verification Test Manual – 5.22

Verification and validation (V&V) of scientific computing programs are important at Sandia National Labs due to the expanding role of computational simulation in managing the United States nuclear stockpile. The complexities of structural response calculations used to analyze physical problems, the varieties of codes applied to the calculations, and the importance of accurate predictions when assessing field conditions demand confidence in the consistency and accuracy of computer codes. Confidence in the accuracy of the predictions arising from computer simulations must ultimately be gained through verification and validation. The Sierra salinas structural dynamics analysis code, Sierra/SD, is used at the DOE Laboratories, and in several DOD projects. The roles of Sierra/SD in the qualification of weapon systems and components for normal and hostile environments throughout the Stockpile-to-Target Sequence include to, • Redesign weapon components. • Certify weapon components and systems for target environments such as hypersonic vehicles. • Certify that components will survive the thermal mechanical shock loads associated with hostile environments. • Evaluate current stockpile issues, including issues associated with uncertainty quantification. • Address many other problems that are encountered in stockpile management. The Sierra/SD verification plan is described, and an evolving set of key verification tests are described in detail. The verification tests ensure the correctness of the mathematics and numerical algorithms associated with functionality describing engineering phenomena. Development is in accordance with a set of tailored Software Quality Engineering (SQE) practices. SQE practices guide the overall verification and validation effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Successful Implementation of Soil Segregation Technology at the Painesville FUSRAP Site - 12281

Typically the highest cost component of the radiological soils remediation of Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) sites is the cost to transport and dispose of the excavated soils, typically contaminated with naturally occurring isotopes of uranium, thorium and radium, at an appropriately permitted off-site disposal facility. The heterogeneous nature of the contamination encountered at these sites makes it difficult to accurately delineate the extent of contaminated soil using the limited, discrete sampling data collected during the investigation phases; and difficult to precisely excavate only the contaminated soil that is above the established cleanup limits using standard in-field scanning and guiding methodologies. This usually results in a conservative guided excavation to ensure cleanup criteria are met, with the attendant transportation and disposal costs for the larger volumes of soil excavated. To address this issue during the remediation of the Painesville FUSRAP Site, located in Painesville, Ohio, the Buffalo District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and its contractor, Safety and Ecology Corporation (SEC), employed automatic soil segregation technology provided by MACTEC (now AMEC) to reduce the potential for transportation and disposal of soils that met the cleanup limits. This waste minimization technology utilized gamma spectroscopy of conveyor-fed soils to automatically segregate the material into above and below criteria discharge piles. Use of the soil segregation system resulted in cost savings through the significant reduction of the volume of excavated soil that required off-site transportation and disposal, and the reduction of the amount of imported clean backfill required via reuse of 'below criteria' segregated soil as place back material in restoring the excavations. Measurements taken by the soil segregation system, as well as results of quality control sampling of segregated soils, confirmed that soils segregated as below criteria for reuse as site fill did meet the Record of Decision cleanup criteria for the site. Automatic soil segregation technology was successfully implemented as part of the 2010 - 2011 remediation effort at the Painesville FUSRAP Site. The Orion ScanSortSM system employed at the site demonstrated the ability to accurately determine the radioactivity concentrations in the processed soil and soil-like material and quickly segregate that material for appropriate final disposition. Data from the soil segregation system and confirmatory QC samples indicated that the segregated 'below criteria' soils met the cleanup criteria in the ROD, and was appropriate for reuse as fill in the excavations. The reduction of the total excavated soil volume requiring off-site disposal by 94% yielded significant project cost savings through reduction of transportation and disposal and backfill procurement costs. Use of automatic soil segregation technology was an efficient and cost-effective method for addressing the radiological contamination at the Painesville Site. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermo-physical Properties of U-10Mo Monolithic Fuel

Monolithic fuel is a candidate fuel form that is being considered for the conversion of high-performance research reactors. This plate-type fuel consists of a high-density, U-Mo fuel in a monolithic form that is sandwiched between zirconium diffusion barriers and encapsulated in an aluminum cladding. To date, many plates were irradiated with a satisfactory irradiation performance, demonstrating that the conceptual design works. The program is now moving to the qualification phase, a predecessor to the timely conversion of the target reactors. To qualify this fuel system, the program must show that the fuel plates have predictable behavior, meet the safety standards, and perform well in reactors. The requirement of a satisfactory irradiation performance under normal operating conditions is primarily demonstrated by a successful testing. To demonstrate that the fuel system has a predictable behavior, the several key material properties should be quantified accurately since these properties are needed to estimate the thermal and mechanical behavior of the fuel system. Although, there is a large set of thermophysical property data available for unirradiated material, the property data for irradiated fuel is scarce. Since irradiation causes drastic effects in material, a significant change in material properties occurs. Consequently, using representative degradation models becomes essential for accurate performance assessments. This work examines thermal conductivity of U-10Mo, by evaluating recent experimental data from the literature and available theoretical models. The study has discovered inconsistencies in the literature data, revealing that previously developed theoretical models fail to predict the thermal conductivity of irradiated fuel.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of Arrivals on Green at Signalized Intersections Using Stop-Bar Video Detection

Across the world, traffic congestion is increasing with alarming rapidity. Traffic signal control effectiveness, in coordinated networks, is often investigated in relation to the type of vehicle arrivals at the signalized intersections. Recently, several transportation agencies have switched from traditional loop detectors to video detection. When video cameras are accompanied by computer vision, one can extract more information about traffic “dynamics” than by using traditional inductive loop detectors. Collecting arrival times of multiple vehicles after the first arrival at the stop-bar detector might be challenging when using inductive loop detectors (since after the first arrival, detector status is always occupied). However, emerging video detection systems allow tracking of each vehicle’s entrance time in the detection zone, departure time from the detection zone, and the type of vehicle. This information can be used to estimate vehicular arrival and departure times, which then can be fed into machine learning algorithms to estimate arrivals on green (AOG). However, such research ideas have not been documented so far. Thus, this paper presents an estimation model for AOG, which was developed using multigene genetic programming. A robust experimental dataset was collected from a highly calibrated and validated microsimulation model of an 11-intersection corridor in Chattanooga, TN. The results of the model’s performance analysis showed the high accuracy of the training-, testing-, and validation datasets. The practical benefit of this model is that it can be applied to estimate arrival types at intersections where only stop-bar video detection exists.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2024

Status of the CERBERUS Evaluation for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook

Modeling & Simulation (M&S) tools are used to analyze advanced reactor designs and the safety of current nuclear operations. As computers continue to improve, we are able to enhance resolution in our calculations. Therefore, the limitations of simulation capability are in the quality of data that is being used, including our ability to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of that data. In order to model systems of interest with increasing accuracy, the industry must improve key nuclear data measurements. The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) compiles and evaluates experiment data in a handbook that can be used by criticality safety engineers and others to validate computer codes and cross section libraries at nuclear facilities. Both critical and subcritical experiments are included in the handbook. These experiments, along with differential measurements, can help improve the quality of nuclear data. Concerns regarding the accuracy of Cu nuclear data have been published. The large values and trend of C-E for the Zeus intermediate energy benchmark, being one of the primary examples. Furthermore, very few experiments have been designed to be sensitive to Cu (as shown in Figure 1), so an integral, critical experiment is needed to help resolve these differences.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-50: A Multi-Institutional Study of Independent Dose Verification Software Program for Lung SBRT

Purpose: The accuracy of dose distribution depends on treatment planning system especially in heterogeneity-region. The tolerance level (TL) of the secondary check using the independent dose verification may be variable in lung SBRT plans. We conducted a multi-institutional study to evaluate the tolerance level of lung SBRT plans shown in the AAPM TG114. Methods: Five institutes in Japan participated in this study. All of the institutes used a same independent dose verification software program (Simple MU Analysis: SMU, Triangle Product, Ishikawa, JP), which is Clarkson-based and CT images were used to compute radiological path length. Analytical Anisotropic Algorithm (AAA), Pencil Beam Convolution with modified Batho-method (PBC-B) and Adaptive Convolve (AC) were used for lung SBRT planning. A measurement using an ion-chamber was performed in a heterogeneous phantom to compare doses from the three different algorithms and the SMU to the measured dose. In addition to it, a retrospective analysis using clinical lung SBRT plans (547 beams from 77 patients) was conducted to evaluate the confidence limit (CL, Average±2SD) in dose between the three algorithms and the SMU. Results: Compared to the measurement, the AAA showed the larger systematic dose error of 2.9±3.2% than PBC-B and AC. The Clarkson-based SMU showed larger error of 5.8±3.8%. The CLs for clinical plans were 7.7±6.0 % (AAA), 5.3±3.3 % (AC), 5.7±3.4 % (PBC -B), respectively. Conclusion: The TLs from the CLs were evaluated. A Clarkson-based system shows a large systematic variation because of inhomogeneous correction. The AAA showed a significant variation. Thus, we must consider the difference of inhomogeneous correction as well as the dependence of dose calculation engine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Guide for Selecting Appropriate Human Factors Methods and Measures in Control Room Modernization Efforts in Nuclear Power Plants

Abstract. Many of the U.S. nuclear power plants are approaching the end of their 60-year licensing period. The U.S. Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program is conducting targeted research to extend the lives and ensure long-term reliability, productivity, safety, and security of these plants through targeted research, such as with integrating advanced digital instrumentation and control technologies in the main control room. There are many challenges to this, one being the integration of human factors engineering in the design and evaluation of these upgrades. This paper builds upon recent efforts in developing utility-specific guidance for integrating human factors engineering in the control room modernization process by providing commonly used data collection methods that are applicable at various phases of the upgrade process. Advantages and disadvantages of each method is provided for consideration of an optimal human factors evaluation plan to be used throughout the lifespan of the upgrade process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Impact of Grain Size on Corrosion Behavior of Ni-Based Alloys in Molten Chloride Salt via Cellular Automata

Molten chloride salts hold significant promise as both thermal transfer and storage media for next-generation concentrated solar power (CSP) systems. However, molten chlorides pose a considerable corrosion risk to structural materials, particularly Ni-based alloys. One approach to enhancing corrosion resistance is through the optimization of grain structure; however, it remains uncertain whether increasing or decreasing grain size enhances corrosion resistance. A cellular automata (CA) program was developed to evaluate the interplay between grain size and corrosion in Ni-based alloy. Our CA program tracks alloy composition, surface roughness, and thickness loss via a graphical user interface, displaying corrosion and diffusion status, and multiple user input cards for tuning the simulation. CA simulations of Inconel 625 indicate enhanced corrosion resistance with increased grain size, with passivating oxides offering limited protection. Additionally, the temporal evolution of alloy surface roughness demonstrates notable fluctuations, with abrupt increases attributed to corrosion along vertical grain boundaries and sudden decreases to grain detachment from the protective film.

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2016

Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies Program: Prospective Benefits Assessment Report for Fiscal Year 2016

Under a diverse set of programs, the Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies offices of DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy invest in research, development, demonstration, and deployment of advanced vehicle, hydrogen production, delivery and storage, and fuel cell technologies. This report estimates the benefits of successfully developing and deploying these technologies (a “Program Success” case) relative to a base case (the “No Program” case). The Program Success case represents the future with completely successful deployment of Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) technologies. The No Program case represents a future in which there is no contribution after FY 2016 by the VTO or FCTO to these technologies. The benefits of advanced vehicle, hydrogen production, delivery and storage, and fuel cell technologies were estimated on the basis of differences in fuel use, primary energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including energy and emissions from fuel production, between the base case and the Program Success case. Improvements in fuel economy of various vehicle types, growth in the stock of fuel cell vehicles and other advanced technology vehicles, and decreased GHG intensity of hydrogen production and delivery in the Program Success case over the No Program case were projected to result in savings in petroleum use and GHG emissions. Benefits were disaggregated by individual program technology areas, which included the FCTO program and the VTO subprograms of batteries and electric drives; advanced combustion engines; fuels and lubricants; materials (for reduction in vehicle mass, or “lightweighting”); and, for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, reduction in rolling and aerodynamic resistance. Projections for the Program Success case indicate that by 2035, the average fuel economy of on-road, light-duty vehicle stock could be 47% to 76% higher than in the No Program case. On-road medium- and heavy-duty vehicle stock could be as much as 39% higher. The resulting petroleum savings in 2035 were estimated to be as high as 3.1 million barrels per day, and reductions in GHG emissions were estimated to be as high as 500 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year. The benefits of continuing to invest government resources in advanced vehicle and fuel cell technologies would have significant economic value in the U.S. transportation sector and reduce its dependency on oil and its vulnerability to oil price shocks.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Reactor Pressure Vessel Integrity Assessments with the Grizzly Aging Simulation Code

Grizzly is a simulation tool being developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) as part of the US Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program to provide improved safety assessments of systems, components, and structures in nuclear power plants subjected to age-related degradation. Its goal is to provide an improved scientific basis for decisions surrounding license renewal, which would permit operation of commercial nuclear power plants beyond 60 years. Grizzly is based on INL’s MOOSE framework, which enables multiphysics simulations in a parallel computing environment. It will address a wide variety of aging issues in nuclear power plant systems, components, and structures, modelling both the aging processes and the ability of age-degraded components to perform safely. The reactor pressure vessel (RPV) was chosen as the initial application for Grizzly. Grizzly solves tightly coupled equations of heat conduction and solid mechanics to simulate the global response of the RPV to accident conditions, and uses submodels to represent regions with pre-existing flaws. Domain integrals are used to calculate stress intensity factors on those flaws. A physically based empirical model is used to evaluate material embrittlement, and is used to evaluate whether crack growth would occur. Grizzly can represent the RPV in 2D or 3D, allowing it to evaluate effects that require higher dimensionality models to capture. Work is underway to use lower length scale models of material evolution to inform engineering models of embrittlement. This paper demonstrates an application of Grizzly to RPV failure assessment, and summarizes on-going work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗